Over the past year my long term trends and outlooks have not changed for gold, oil or the SP500. Though there has been a lot of sideways price action to keep everyone one their toes and focused on the short term charts.
As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.
The key to investing success is to always trade with the long term trend and stick with it until price and volume clearly signals a reversal/down trend. Doing this means you truly never catch the market top nor do you catch market bottoms. But the important thing is that you do catch the low risk trending stage of an investment (stage 2 – Bull Market, Stage 4 Bear Market).
Lets take a look at the charts and see where prices stand in the grand scheme of things…
Gold Weekly Futures Trading Chart:
Last week to talk about about how precious metals are nearing a major tipping point and to be aware of those levels because the next move is likely to be huge and you do not want to miss it.
Overall gold and silver remain in a secular bull market and has gone through many similar pauses to what we are watching unfold over the past year. As mentioned above the gold market looks to be trying to not only shake investors out but to wait them out also with this 18 month volatile sideways trend.
A lot of gold bugs, gold and stock investors of mining stocks are starting to give up which can been seen in the price and selling volume for these investments recently. I am a contrarian in nature so when I see the masses running for the door I start to become interested in what everyone is unloading at bargain prices.
Gold is now entering an oversold panic selling phase which happens to be at major long term support. This bodes well for a strong bounce or start of a new bull market leg higher for this shiny metal. If gold breaks below $1500 – 1530 levels it could trigger a bear market for precious metals but until then I’m bullish at this price. I think we could see another spike lower in gold to test the $1500- $1530 level this week but after that it could be off to the races to new highs.
Crude Oil Weekly Trading Chart:
Oil had a huge bull market from 2009 until 2011 but since then has been trading sideways in a narrowing bullish range. I expect some big moves this year for oil and technical analysis puts the odds on higher prices. If we do get a breakout and rally then $130 will likely be reached. But if price breaks down then a sharp drop to $50 per barrel looks likely.
The utility sector has done well and continues to look very bullish for 2013. This high dividend paying sector is liked by many and the price action speaks for its self… If the overall financial market starts to peak then these sectors should hold up well because they are services, dividend and a commodity play wrapped in one.
SP500 Trend Daily Chart:
The SP500 continues to be in an uptrend which I am trading with until price and volume tell me otherwise. But there are some early warning signs that another correction or a full blown bear market may be just around the corner.
Again, sticking with the uptrend is key, but knowing what to look for and prepare for is important so that when the trend does change your transition from long positions to short positions is a simple measured move in your portfolios.
Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, I remain bullish on stocks and commodity related stocks until I see a trend change in the SP500.
Energy sector is doing well and looks bullish for the next month. As for gold and gold miners, I feel they are entering a low risk entry point to start building a new long position. Risk is low compared to potential reward.
When the price of a commodity or index trade near the apex of a narrowing range or major long term support/resistance level volatility typically increases as fear and greed become heightened which creates larger daily price swings. So be prepared for some turbulence in the coming weeks while the market shakes things up.
If you like my work then be sure to get on my free mailing list to get these each week on various investments for investment ideas at www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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This week I talked about how the uptrend is to be the focus of trading positions until a down trend is actually confirmed via price and volume action. The SP500 was very close to reversing down this week but with the POMO’s (permanent open market operations) scheduled largest injection of money for February of over $5 billion dollars sent stocks soaring jamming stocks back up into its uptrend.
Take a look at the normal daily injections and then look at Feb 27th’s….
SP500 Futures 10 Minute Chart Zoomed Back 48 Hours…
SP500 Trend – Green, Orange, Red candles indicate trend direction
Short Term Trading Conclusion:
Following the bigger underlying trend of the market along with the big money will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. My trading strategy which is now programmed into my trading system clearly tells me the current market trend, entry signals, profit taking, stop adjustments and exit prices.
Creating a proven trading strategy which works in all market conditions and having it programmed to do 95% of the analysis for you keep my trading emotions in check, saves me time and money and keeps things simple which is the key for long term success. So keep your eye on the POMO’s injection schedule each month for days to focus on long day trades or entry points for swing trades.
Since silver and gold topped in 2011 investors have been struggling with these positions hoping this cyclical bull market for metals continues. The simple truth is no one knows for sure if prices will continue and make new highs and those who say its a for sure thing we all know deep down is full of bull crap.
All investments move in cycles, waves or trends which ever you want to call it. The market has 4 simple yet distinct stages each require a completely different skill set and trading tactics to navigate.
Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.
Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock’s price.
Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock’s price.
Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters a bear market. A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock’s price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time. I do show some of my trade setups using these exact stages free here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897
Now that you know the stages and what it looks like its time to review the gold, silver and miners charts.
Gold Chart – Weekly
Gold has been in a bull market for several years but is starting to show its age in terms of the size of the price patterns, volume levels and extreme bullish sentiment. Back in 2011 a week before price topped we exited precious metals because the short term charts and volume levels were warning of a sharp drop. Since then I have not done many trades in either gold or silver because I do not like shorting in bull markets. Waiting for a bullish setup/price pattern before getting involved is my focus.
Gold has pulled back with a bullish 5 wave correction the last 5 months and at key support. While the long term charts are pointing to higher gold prices you must be aware that if gold and silver start to breakdown things will likely get ugly quickly. To be honest I do not care which way it goes, I just want it to either rally from support here and make new highs or breakdown and crash. Both will be very profitable if traded properly.
Silver Chart – Weekly
Silver has a very similar chart to that of its big sister (yellow gold). This shiny metal has the energy of a 3 year old making it a very volatile investment. I have touched on the topic of gold and silver being so called safe havens and if you have been reading my work for a while you know that any investment that can move 18-45% in value within 1 month is NOT a safe haven.
While it has done well in the past decade and boosted a lot of retirement accounts the day will come with these things collapse and most people holding them will give back most if not all the gains they had simply because people get attached to large positions and most do not know when to just exit a position.
Gold Miners Chart – Monthly
This chart gives me cold sweats because I know how many people own gold mining stocks and I know how fast these things can move. If the price closed below the green support line the bottom could fall out and be very painful for those who get paralyzed by denial and do nothing but watch their accounts lose value week after week.
Precious Metals Investing Conclusion:
In short, this report is to show you the very basics of how investments move in stages. It is also to show a warning that precious metals are technically very close to a major breakdown which the big money players are watching closely. This thinly traded sector can move extremely fast when everyone rushes for the door.
Do not get me wrong, I am not saying a crash is about to happen, actually it’s the opposite. All I am doing is planning the idea in your subconscious so that if prices continue to move lower you will remember that these price levels and take action with your investments. Remember, you can always buy the investment back at any time again if the outlook changes in a week, month or year.
Get My FREE Weekly Gold, Silver and Mining Reports and Trade with the Stages: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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We all want new and exciting electronic gizmos and gadgets for the holiday season. Unfortunately they have the tendency to lose almost all their value within weeks because of newer versions etc… but what if you just got a lump of dirty old coal in your stocking, how would you feel?
The only individuals who would appreciate a dirty gift like that would be those forward looking investors who see major opportunities before they become the next big movers and headline news.
Knowing how to spot Stage 1 patterns is one of the most important bits of information you need to know as an investor. This one pattern is how I found RIMM which now up 100% in the past 30 days, ANR up 30% in two weeks, FSLR up 20% in 20 days and the list goes one. My main focus is on ETFs because of lower risk they provide but very powerful when applied to individual stocks.
Coal and coal stocks have been out of favor for almost two years now. But these unwanted and hated shares may soon be owned by the masses, or at least by traders and investors. A few weeks ago to I talked about the four stages all investments go through and which patters you must be able to spot in order to make huge money investing while having very limited downside risk.
In summary, Trade with the BIG BOARD and only focusing on buying stocks, ETFs etc… as they are coming out of a Stage 1 Accumulation Basing Pattern. This puts the odds greatly in your favor for not only winning the majority of your trades but to generate above average returns.
The BIG BOARD – NYSE – Weekly Major Stock Market Trend
The New York Stock Exchange is the big board. This chart formed a reversal candle last week which points to lower prices. Its likely we see a 1-2 week dip before buyers step back in. Until then individual stocks should pause or form mini bull flags until the sellers are finished and buyers step back into risk on assets (equities).
Coal Sector ETF Showing Stage 1 Basing Pattern
Coal stocks have been bouncing bottom for some time and if you did not review the Stages Report using the link above then do so now so you know what to expect in detail.
KOL coal exchange traded fund is a basket of coal companies and is starting to show signs of a new bull market. A breakout and close above $26.00 should trigger strong buying with the potential of a 21% gain before it hits my first price target. This could go way past that but one target at a time folks.
Naturally I would like to see a bull flag or pause in KOL over the next couple weeks, then look to get long using the pivot low of that pause/bull flag as my protective stop. I’m not jumping in here as the broad market looks ready to correct and ¾ stocks follow the big board which will pull KOL down.
ANR – My Top Coal Stock Pick
I pointed out ANR at $7.50 at the beginning of December to followers as it was the best looking coal stock I could find. The two key indicators “Price” and “Volume” were clearly pointing to higher prices and the potential gain even if it was just played up to the Stage 1 Resistance Level still netted a 30% move. Crazy part is that there is the potential for a 100% rally to my first price target. Follow my free ideas here live: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897
You want Gizmos or Coal in You’re Stocking???
In short, I really like the coal sector for the first quarter of 2013. I’m not too worried about the fiscal cliff as it’s not the end of the world and the US along with most other countries are all bankrupt together in my opinion. New rules and ideas will be implemented and life and business will continue… I am not to worried.
I am expecting stocks to continue sideways or higher into May at which time a serious correction could take place. But not to worry as we take things one week at time and will be adjusting my outlook accordingly.
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Oil and gas along with their equities have been underperforming for the most part of 2012 and they are still under heavy selling pressure.
I watch the oil futures chart very closely for price and volume action. And the one thing that is clear for oil is that big sellers are still unloading copious amounts of contracts which is keeping the price from moving higher. Oil is trading in a very large range and is trending its way back down the lower reversal zone currently. Once price reverses back up and starts heading towards the $100 and $105 levels it will trigger strong buying across the entire energy sector.
Crude Oil, Energy & Utility Sector Chart – Weekly Time Frame
The chart below shows the light crude oil price along with the energy and utilities sectors. The patterns on the chart are clearly pointing to higher prices but the price of oil must shows signs of strength before that will happen. Once XLE & XLU prices break above their upper resistance levels (blue dotted line) they should takeoff and provide double digit returns.
Looking at the XLU utilities sector above I am sure you noticed the steady rise in the price the last couple of years. This was a result in the low interest rates in bond price and a shift from investors looking for higher yields for their money. Utility stocks carry below average risk in the world of equities and pay out a steady and healthy dividend year after year. So this is where long term investment capital has/is being parked for the time being.
Last week I covered utility stocks in detail showing you the Stage 1 – Accumulation base which they had formed. The chart below shows the recent price action on the 2 hour candle chart and recent run up. You can learn more about how to take advantage of this sector here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/its-the-season-to-own-utility-stocks/
Oil and Gas Services – Daily Time Frame
This chart shows a very bullish picture for the services along with its relative strength to oil (USO) at the bottom. While the sector looks a little overbought here on the short term chart, overall it’s pointing to much higher prices.
Energy Sector Conclusion:
In short, crude oil looks to be trading in a VERY large range without any sign a breakout above or below its channel lines for several months at the minimum. But if the lower channel line is reached and oil starts to trend up then these energy related sector ETFs should post some very large gains and should not be ignored.
I know most Apple enthusiasts will be rolling their eyes with my analysis and that’s fine because the rest of us need people to buy our shares as we unload long positions or sell Apple short ?.
All joking aside, the charts below clearly show some very interesting information you cannot afford to overlook. At minimum, take a quick glance at the charts which tell the full story on their own…
The Four Stages of AAPL & RIMM
Markets are cyclical in nature. There is a constant process of expansion and contraction, rally and decline that continues as the market determines the theoretical fair value of a security. The sum of these moves forms an unquestionable cyclical pattern consistent within all time frames.
During a cycle a stock enters different phases of support, from irrational exuberance typically found before its peak, to periods of widespread discontent where its price is continually punished. However there are never distinctly good or bad stocks.
Every “good” stock will eventually become a bad one and vice versa. There are however good trades; trades that reward an investor who has correctly anticipated a move and positioned himself accordingly.
It is important to note that this works with commodities like gold and silver which are trading at a VERY interesting point in their life cycle. Looking at various time frames in GLD and SLV you can see this.
Classic economic theory dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages: expansion, trough, decline and recovery. A stock is no different, and proceeds through the following cycle:
Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.
Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock’s price.
Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock’s price.
Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters into a bear market. A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock’s price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time.
While these stages are historically defined over long time periods they actually exists in all time frames, allowing traders to take advantage of a cycle regardless of their trading time frame. Fortunately this phenomenon, known as a “fractal”, exists within all security markets. A fractal is simply a rough geometric shape that can be subdivided into smaller parts that have the same properties; a smaller version of the whole.
This is important to understand because through technical analysis as we are often analyzing multiple time frames. In the short term, the four stage model may repeat itself many times. The combination of these short term cycles form a medium term cycle, and the combination of multiple medium term cycles form a long term cycle. Recognition of these cycles is paramount in trading success.
The Four Stages Profile: This signature profile happens over and over again in the market and all the great leaders eventually become laggards.
REAL LIFE PROFILES:
Variety in Trading
Investment securities (stocks, ETF’s, options, futures) can be described as being similar to different types of athletes, each with their own unique style and personality. Some can be characterized as sprinters, participating in quick bouts of movement but tiring quickly. Others could said to be more similar to a marathoner, enduring prolonged courses in one direction without pause or interruption.
When I look to make a trade I look for sprinters as historically I have had the most success with them. Other investors like pension and mutual funds are more interested in the long term marathoner that provides steady performance. There is no one way to trade; each method can be equally profitable or unprofitable. It ultimately comes down to what style works best for you, and the only way that can be determined is through trial and error.
Different phases, different strategies
As noted above, the market alternates between periods of trending activity and periods of consolidation. In a trend (stages 2 and 4) there will be an expansion of the price range in one direction. An uptrend will have a series of higher highs and higher lows (stage 2), while a down trend will produce lower highs and lower lows (stage 4). In a consolidation there will be a contraction of price range prior to a reversal in trend. This neutral stage is avoided by trend traders.
A stock in stage 1 or 3 is typically correcting itself after having experience a prolonged move in one direction. These corrections are found after periods of extreme movements that often conclude with emotional and undisciplined trading at peaks and troughs. Trading these two stages is quite different than 2 and 4, and this book will teach you how to manage your risk and trade these stages responsibly.
A short term consolidation within a primary trend is one area where we want to study the price action of a security for clues as to whether there will be a resumption in the trend, continued consolidation, or reversal. Sometimes however it is difficult to identify any order or consistency on any given time frame.
If you are a trend trader these periods should be avoided. Trading has enough inherent challenges already and at all times a successful trader will only be searching out those trades that have a high probability of being profitable.
Trading is all about finding an edge or an advantage and exploiting it for maximum profit. If there is no such edge than there is no reason to be involved. I will say this now and again many other times: Sometimes the best trade is no trade!
Naturally, regardless of the stage a stock is in or your conviction of its direction, risk of financial loss is always inherent in trading and this is critical to always keep in mind. The most successful traders are not immune to this and they too will have unprofitable trades. The key is to minimize those loses by only trading those stocks that have the highest probability of being profitable. This is what separates the profitable and professional traders from those that lose money.
Emotions and Lifecycle Analysis
History has an uncanny ability to repeat itself. Whether it’s the rise and fall of an empire or the rise and fall of a stock, there are clear cycles that are prevalent throughout history.
People may change, but human nature, and our ability to act, react and overreact is simply an innate part of our being. This predictability is what forms the basis of technical analysis and provides a trader with an edge with which to trade upon. When we are analyzing cycles we really are analyzing emotions, trying to gain insight as to how market participants are behaving.
Upon conducting such analysis it can at times seem that markets are be behaving “irrationally” and out of order. Undisciplined traders often fall victim to their emotions and lose control of their objectivity. As people behave irrationally, so too does the market, and unfortunately these conditions can persist for long period of times.
John Maynard Keynes is often quoted for suggesting that “The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” This is a harsh reality and puts great emphasis on the importance of discipline, risk management, and a keen eye for price action.
Emotions are what separate the successful traders from those that lose money. They can be regarded as a relentless opponent, often showing up without warnings and striking you at inopportune times. The successful trader is able to recognize their presence and maintain objectivity, constantly assessing their own strengths and weaknesses.
There will ultimately be times where you can’t control your emotions; however you can always control how you respond to them. Any time you recognize that your emotions are influencing your outlook you are already one step ahead of the average market participant. It is at this point that you step back, refocus your perceptions, examine the price action, and then take the appropriate action.
An understanding of herd or mob mentality is important in trading and can provide you with an edge over the average participant who doesn’t contemplate what is happening around them. In a mob or riot, we never know what the feelings and motivations are of all the individual participants.
There are however certain emotions that seem to appear at distinct times and a certain predictability in their development. A stock’s price action is no different. While we never know the underlying feeling and motivations of all participants, there are distinct emotions that are shared by the herd at various stages of a stock’s life. An understanding of these emotions and their implications on the price action of a stock is an advantage that the profitable trader maintains.
The Stock Market Lifecycle could be explained in much more detail, but this report gives you the foundation of stock / index trading cycles. I will be covering this topic in a future video with much more detail.
The Apple Money Tree Is Losing Its Leaves…
The Fruit War – Apples Top While Berries Bottom
It is very interesting that AAPL shares topped the same week rim shares bottomed. Could the BB10 be the turnaround for Research in Motion? Either way the market is somewhat predictable as traders and investors buy the rumor that BB10 will be good, and they sell the news once it arrives no matter the outcome good or bad. Jan 30th is when it’s unveiled so we could see RIM shares continue to claw its way out of the grave.
RIM – Daily Chart Look of Price Pattern
Conclusion:
Knowing this information is crucial to survival as this cycle happens on all time frames (1 minute chart all the way up to yearly charts). Harnessing this information for trade selection and timing greatly reduces the amount of trades you take, while focusing only on new leaders which have massive upside potential. You can see some of my trade ideas which are in Stage 1 Accumulation mode getting ready for takeoff here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1992897
Judging from the recent price action in the broad market (SP500, NASDAQ, DOW, IWM) along with AAPL shares which have a large impact on index price direction. I feel the market is setting up for a strong Santa Clause rally in the coming week.
2013 looks like it will be a VERY exciting year for trading and investing as several sectors, stocks, and foreign country indexes are in Stage 1 Basing patterns about to start a new bull market. These major plays will become part of my trading alert service at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com from this point forward.
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The equities market technically still has another day of positive momentum behind it and with a short holiday week higher prices are favored.
This morning in the video I mentioned how oil continues to look untradible because of the sharp news related swings and lack of clear chart patterns. Yesterday it rallied over 2% and today is back down 2%… Steer clear of this beast…
SP500 (broad market) continues to grind sideways/higher today. Volume is very light which bodes well for lower prices in the coming days. I would love to see a Pop-N-Drop tomorrow which is when the index gaps higher at the open into a resistance zone at which point we would be looking to get short (buy the SDS).
Research In Motion shares hit our first resistance level after being upgraded this morning…. Buy the rumor sell the news…? If you are long taking some money off the table here is smart play and to move your stop to break even or better.
Coal sector is looking tasty today and we may take a long position in KOL, but I will update if I do so.
Remember you can now view some of my live charts at stockcharts each day. If you are a member of stockcharts.com then PLEASE follow my ChartList and Vote for it each day so I know its worth me updating for you: http://stockcharts.com/public/1992897
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It is that time in the presidential cycle that gets everyone emotional and concerned with the future outlook of the United States. While everyone has their opinion on whom they think is best for America, I promised myself a long time ago to keep my thoughts to myself for two key reasons. ONE: only 50% of Americans will agree with me J, and TWO: I am Canadian so I do not experience what Americans go through on a daily basis.
My thinking is if Obama wins then we will see Quantitative Easing continue. And with the recent positive economic numbers on Friday it should give some confidence to investors that things are SLOWLY stabilizing (Bullish for Stocks). But, if Romney wins then we could see Quantitative Easing be cut or eliminated which is obviously bad for equities.
So, let’s just jump into the charts of what I feel will unfold in the next few days and months.
Using the season chart of the four year election cycle we can see what the Dow Jones Index has done in past election periods. Obviously every market environment is drastically different in each situation but overall we see stronger stock price. This is naturally a very emotional time for investors but once the election is finished most individuals become more confident simply because there is a leader that has four years to make things better and there is nothing they can do about it now and the campaigning and debating is over.
DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Chart:
Looking at the chart of Dow DIA Index fund you can see a 5-6 month cycle in the market which has a positive skew. Just so you understand what a positive skew is I will explain.
Positive Skew is when the market is trending up making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Because there are naturally more buyers during a bull market each cycle upswing lasts longer then when the cycle down downswing. So you get longer rallies which sends your secondary indicators (stochastics, volatility, put/call ratios, advance decline line etc…) in the overbought levels for extended periods of time. Those trying to pick a top continually get their head handed to them. The focus must be on buying the pullbacks. Keep in mind volatility is higher which meaning risk per trade is higher. Overall in the long run you stand a much higher chance of making money trading with the trend than trying counter trend trades (picking a top).
So as you can see below it looks like the stock market will be trying to put in the bottom over the next week or two which falls in line with our election cycle. It is very important to know that during intermediate cycle lows is where some of the biggest drops take place. These sharp drops are what is needed to cleanse the market one last time to shake as many traders with tight stops out of the market before it reverses and starts the next rally. I would like to see a 1-3 day market sell off as that would be the signature bottoming pattern I like to buy.
Bond Prices – Moving Against the Norm…
Bond investors are some of the most conservative people in the market. They do not like to take risks so they dump their money into bonds to make a tiny profit in exchange for low risk (volatility). The nature of these investors put more money into bonds as we enter the election because they are nervous about not knowing who will be in control of the country.
After the election finished some money flows out of bonds and into stocks because there is now a president and direction for the country. Generally come the new year investors move to bonds as the safe haven as they try to figure out what their game plan is for new year.
So looking forward to this week and the next 2 months I would not be surprised to see bond prices rise or trade sideways while stocks move higher. This analysis is based on Obama winning. If Romney wins then I feel bonds will rally much more and stocks could sell off.
TLT Bond Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart:
Here is a chart of 20+ year bonds showing a possible reversal to the upside that could trigger as soon as next week. This chart is forward looking 1 – 2 weeks. Overall the trend remains down but if Romney wins I feel bonds breakout above the red resistance levels and trigger a new uptrend. You can follow my stock charts and ETF charts live every day here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1992897
Election Year Trading Cycle Conclusion:
Next week is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I generally do not like to trade or invest before news of this magnitude so trade smaller sizes if you do as price action could be wild.
Disclaimer: This material should not be considered investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its staff are not a registered investment advisors. Under no circumstances should any content from this website, articles, videos, seminars or emails from Technical Traders Ltd. or its affiliates be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. Our advice is not tailored to the needs of any subscriber so go talk with your investment advisor before making trading decisions This information is for educational purposes only.
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We did see a nice pop this morning breaking some previous pivot highs from last week and volume looks strong. Long story short… stocks are overbought here very similar to the past two highs as seen in the chart below. The big question from here is what to do now? Well, I wanna see some bullish patterns and volume over the next 12-48 hours if we are going to be looking to get long for an intermediate rally that lasts several weeks taking the indexes to new highs.
Take a look at the 10 minute intraday chart of the past fiveOPEN trading sessions (Wed, Thurs, Fri, Wed, Today) as notice how choppy price has been…. It’s shaking traders up who do not know how to adjust their trading strategy during rising volatility and mixed market cycles. This is something I will be teaching in the near future using my own eSignal trading indicators and Signals as it has been CRUCIAL in the past 3 year to profit from and minimize losses.
Daily Chart of my Cycles & Sentiment Indicator of the SPY:
Yesterday we saw utilities rally as fear worked its way into the market. Well today utilities (XLU) is trading lower. Interesting how the market move and why I love them so much…
Last week I mention how RIMM looked ready for a major breakout and rally. This week it has jumped over 12% which is exciting. The next to pop looks like KOL coal ETF.
One of my members sent an email asking for help and he could not have picked a better time to ask because the market is eating traders alive here…
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MEMBERS QUESTION:
Hi Chris,
In the last week, with the chopping around, I’ve had the bad fortune of being short ES, and multiple times being stopped by a little spike, and then I am watching the market go lower without me.
Last Thursday, I put in a buy stop for 1392, and that got triggered during a spike down yesterday. This afternoon (I live in Singapore), my sell stop of 1417 that had been set last Thursday got hit, and I watch in frustration as ES dipped to 1412 without me.
This has been very frustrating and expensive – so I think I really need a tutorial/advice on setting proper stops.
It almost seems like someone can see my stops (set above or below what I measure to be resistance and support) and literally aims for them to take me out.
Some months ago, when this happened a lot, I stopped using stops completely. Then got badly maimed by the Draghi and Bernanke bounces in September.
Hope this is something you can look at as an enhancement to your excellent service (and I would gladly pay for this).
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MY RESPONSE:
Yes, stops are tough to figure out for sure. If you are getting shaken up as you stated then you are not setting your stops properly. Because of the leverage involved with futures most people put too tight of a stop at or just beyond recent pivot highs or lows… These levels are where the market makers TRY to get the price to reach on a regular basis so they end up with a huge position that is very profitable in most cased within hours. Unfortunately these positions should have been in your trading account and not in theirs.
The market moves on emotions and 95% of traders do not have a clearly documented step by step rule book to follow, which removes emotions allowing them to nail down a consistently profitable strategy and stick to it. While I already have rules for each type of trade setup use last week I took a course to help me fine tune what I have even more so I can pass along how I do things to you. If you want to build your own documented system properly, then you really need to take Brian McAboy’s “Trading System Mastery” course. It’s a couple short manuals and 4 hours of VERY important step by step instructions on just how to document/create the perfect strategy for you.
Anyways, be sure to keep in mind that during overnight trading (After 4pm ET until 9:30am ET) is when most of your stops will trigger. That is when the market makers can walk the price up and down to these key levels and take your stops.
I focus on my stops only being active during regular trading hours to avoid most of this BS manipulation. While I am subject to price gaps using regular trading hour stops only, I know my risk and I know that an index is not going move more than 5% against me at the open in a worst case scenario. I manage my risk through position size and use wider stops thank most traders because I do not have all my money in ONE highly leveraged position.
I will put together an educational report on how, when and where you should place your stops along with how you can take advantage of it. It will take me a week or two to create but be on the lookout for it…
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2012-11-01 12:59:462014-03-06 06:30:36Stocks Overbought or Oversold? Where to Put Your Stops
AAPL shares have been in free fall mode all October spooking investors with a $120 drop from the all-time high in September. As well all know, though it’s hard to follow without a proven trading strategy to keep us focused but the key is that you must buy when others are selling and then sell when everyone is buying.
Apple shares really have helped in holding the overall stock market up in the past but recently it has been a big drag on the broad market. Taking a look at the chart below you can see my analysis and thoughts of this giant.
The red horizontal line shows the key level where high volume traded in the past. For the market to reset (flush out investors/traders) it must shake as many longs out before it can start rising again. By the price breaking below that level which also happens to be a Century Number $600, most of the stops were placed down around this level. The volume spike of 40,000,000 shares clearly shows it triggered stops once that $600 level was broken. We want stops run because it give more power to the next rally/bounce.
NASDAQ Index:
The NASDAQ has formed a similar chart pattern and is heavily weighted with AAPL shares. Trading NQ futures, QQQ, QLD or the XLK exchange traded fund as a much more affordable way to play a bounce/rally in the coming weeks.
Russell 2000 Index:
I really like the Russell 2000 index because small cap stocks can rally hard and fast outperforming the large caps like AAPL, SP500, NASDAQ and DOW. This index is looking ripe for a bounce in the coming days which could trigger the next major rally to new highs. You can plan this index through TF futures contract, IWM, TNA, UWM exchange traded funds.
Trading Conclusion:
While this setup looks very promising because the election is almost over and the Santa Clause rally is just around the corner. Know that some of the biggest drops in the market happens during times when the market is running the stops. It is a natural tendency to take big positions which things look great, but that is not how you do it… Take calculated position sizes knowing indexes could fall another 2-3% before putting in a real washout bottom.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2012-11-01 07:28:472014-03-04 12:44:04AAPL Looks Ready Bounce & the Next Best Trade Ideas
