Equities and Precious Metals are on the edge of another rally and it could start as early as tomorrow.
On March 13th I posted some of my analysis online showing how the market was trading at a key pivot point and that a sharp price movement was about to unfold. I also provided everyone with the direction in favor which played out perfectly catching a 4.5% in three days.
As of today we are getting the same setup I saw on March 13th, but this time it’s pointing to higher prices. Take a quick look at the charts I was looking at for both the SP500 and gold and you will notice that the SP500 and gold both moved to the support levels before starting to bounce: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/it%E2%80%99s-do-or-die-week-for-equities-and-gold/
While we caught the move down on the SP500 playing the SDS Double leveraged inverse fund we did not take part in falling gold prices. Reason being, there is so much fear in the market and the amount of surprise news popping up each week I don’t think shorting precious metals is a safe call. Rather I am looking for a pullback to cleanse the holders of the commodity then I will buy once price confirms the continuation pattern has completed.
Now, stepping forward to this week’s price action
SPY Daily Chart
We can see in the chart below that price is currently testing a key resistance level. Before the week is over we could see some big price movement equities. I need to see what happens tomorrow but I have a feeling we could see a breakout to the upside for a long position.
Gold Miners Fund Daily Chart Gold stocks have be under performing the price of bullion for a few months but it looks as though they could be starting a sizable rally. If gold stocks continue to move sharply higher out of this pattern, then it’s a positive sign that gold and silver bullion will both continue to move up.
Gold Daily Chart Gold is testing a key resistance level and if it breaks above this pattern then expect much higher prices. I can see GLD moving up $5 from this level and gold futures moving up $60 per ounce fairly quickly.
Mid-Week Trend Report: In short, stocks and commodities may have shaken the weak positions out of the market during the recent pullback in price. Things could be ready to start another multi month rally and trade setups. Keep your eyes on the charts…
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2011-03-23 22:14:382014-03-10 06:59:06Another Do or Die Point for Equities & Gold – Get Ready!
Trading with multiple time frames – Every now and then it’s always a good idea to look at some different time frames to be sure you have a solid understanding for the longer term trends in play. I will admit that it’s easy to get caught up in trading the shorter time frames like the 1, 10, and 60 minute charts especially when there are large intraday movements. But every night you must reset your thinking by looking at the bigger picture.
Below are weekly and daily charts which I think provide a big picture view of things.
SPY – SP500 Index Fund – Weekly Chart
You will see that in both 2009 and 2010 we saw a 5-8% correction down to the key moving averages. I feel that we are in store for a similar pullback in 2011. After that we will most likely continue higher.
US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
The dollar is trading down at a key support level which I am keeping a close eye on. If we get a close below this trend line then we should see the dollar sell off sharply which in turn will trigger another leg higher in commodities across the board.
Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
Crude oil has really taken off because of the fears coming out of the Middle East. From the looks of it the next key pivot level is the $110 level.
Gold – Daily Chart
Both gold and silver have made new highs but after such a run I expect we see a quick pullback before they go higher. Gold and silver are the two investments I think everyone should hold a core position for the long run no matter what happens to the price. But, if we do get a nice quick pullback into the key moving averages then I think it’s a great spot get involved with more money.
Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, I am bullish on stocks and commodities and bearish on the dollar and bonds. The one issue I see going forward is that if the dollar breaks down it will most likely help boost oil prices which in turn puts downward pressure on stocks… So depending on how things unfold in the Middle East and a falling dollar, we may not see higher stock prices. Some individuals are forecasting $150-220 per barrel and I know if it gets back up there it will definitely slow the economy and stock prices down…
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2011-03-02 22:33:042014-03-10 07:00:42Gold, Silver, Oil, SP500 & the Dollar Long Term Trends
Today the stock market bled out with a river of red candles. All of the recent gains vanished in one session. Strong selling volume sessions like this are typically a warning sign that distribution selling is starting to enter the market.
Distribution selling is when the big money players start unloading large positions in anticipation of a market top. They do try to hide it by selling into good news or earnings when the average investors are buying into all the hype of better than expected earnings on the news. As average investors jump into the market because of the good news, this extra liquidity helps the big money players (banks, hedge funds, etc..) sell large amounts of their positions to the eager buyers. This is why the “buy on rumor and sell on the news” saying is kicked around wall street….
To me, panic selling is typically seen as a bullish sign to enter the market simply because if everyone is/has rushed to the door to sell what they own, then really most of the down side risk has been taken out of the market. That being said after an extended multi month rally and higher than selling volume I look at it more like distribution selling and a shift in momentum.
I feel the precious metals sector will be starting something like this in the near futures, and possibly it has already started as seen in the rising volume on the down days.
Let’s take a look at the charts…
AAPL – Apple Stock 10 Minute Chart
Two days ago AAPL shares took big hit because of some medical issues with the CEO, the shares did float back up. But what is important here is the distribution selling which took place after Apple came out with much better than expected earnings. The general public loves to buy good news especially when it’s for a famous company. But large sellers stepped in unloading as much of their position as they could before making it look to obvious.
The average investor listening on the radio or catching snippets on the news do not pick up on these things which is why the big money players can get away with this over and over again.
GS – Goldman Sachs 10 Minute Chart
Goldman came out with average earnings being just above estimates and the share price took a beating with very strong volume.
Distribution selling looks to be entering the market and this is a bearish sign. I would not be surprised if we see the market top out in the next 5-10 trading sessions.
SPY – SP500 10 Minute Chart
Here you can see my green panic selling indicator spiking up much higher than normal dwarfing the past sell off spikes. This makes me think the big money is now starting to unload which will shift the current upward momentum to more of a sideways whipsaw type of price action. Eventually it will roll over and a new down trend will start.
As you can see from this chart the SP500 is trading down at a support level so a bounce is likely going to take place. If in fact today was the first distribution day then the big money should let the price inflate back up to the recent highs and possibly make a new high to help keep investors bullish before the hit their SELL BUTTON again… They like to play these games and understanding them is a key part of trading. Expect choppy price action for a week or two…
Silver Daily Chart – The Next Wave of Selling?
I look at silver and gold as one… so what I show here is the exact same for gold.
As you can see silver is trading under 3 of its key moving averages and todays bounce was sold into after testing the 14 and 20 period moving averages.
Take a looking at the bottom of the chart and you can see distribution selling volume as the spikes are all down days. If silver breaks below the $28 level then we could easily and quickly see the $26 and maybe even the $24 level.
The Mid-Week Market & Metals Trading Conclusion:
In short, the financial power players are pulling out all the tricks to shake traders out of their positions. A lot of people shorted the market in the past 2 weeks only to get hung out to dry and most likely stopped out of their short positions for a loss. Fortunately we did the opposite taking another long position in the SP500 ETFS because my market internal indicators, market breadth and simple trading strategy clearly pointed out that the average investor was trying to pick a top by shorting the market. As we all know, the market is designed to hurt the masses which is why I focus on the underlying trends, price action, volume and market sentiment for timing trend changes.
That being said, I still think the market could grind higher and make another new high. But any rally or new high will most likely get stepped on with heavy selling. Expect strong selling days followed by a couple days of light volume sessions where the price drifts back up into resistance levels. This could take a week or two to unfold so don’t jump the gun and short yet. It’s best to see more distribution selling before picking a top.
If you like this trading reports or if you would like to get my daily pre-market trading videos, intraday charts, updates and trade alerts be sure to join my newsletter: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php
Chris Vermeulen
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There is a potentially big setup in precious metals sector along with the dollar which looks like its about to unfold. Since mid-October of last year gold started to show signs of distribution selling. Only a month later in November silver started warning us that some big players were taking some profits off the table also. Distribution selling is easy to spot on the charts. In short you will see heavy volume selling accompanied with strong moves to the downside.
Now if we look at the US Dollar chart we see the exact opposite price action. We see sharp rallies during October and November of last year. It’s normal to say that gold and silver move inverse to the Dollar so this price action makes perfect sense.
The interesting thing with the US Dollar is that in Nov-December it rallied breaking through a key resistance level and has been consolidating above support ever since. If this bullish pattern (bull flag) plays out, then it’s just a matter of time before the dollar makes another strong rally upwards, which will put downward pressure on stocks and commodities.
Take a look at the charts below…
US Dollar Daily Chart
The 50 period moving average has provided key support/resistance levels for the previous trends and if it holds true going forward then we are not far from another rally in the dollar.
Gold Futures Daily Chart
Gold moves inverse to the dollar so if we get a higher dollar then look for gold to have a stair step pattern lower.
Silver Futures Daily Chart
Silver looks about ready to do the same thing as gold.
Precious Metals and Dollar Trading Conclusion:
In short, we could see a major shift in momentum from up to down in both precious metals and the equities market. Keep in mind the market has a way of dragging out patterns/moves so while the chart looks bearish and I think a reversal is near, things could just chop around for another month or so before a definitive breakout is made. Choppy market conditions are great for trading options but no short term trend traders like myself. This is why you don’t want to anticipate moves (pick a top). Currently I am neutral on metals and the dollar waiting for a setup which must have clear risk/reward characteristics.
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This has been an interesting week for traders and investors as precious metals melt down on the back of a rising dollar. Equities on the other hand bucked the trend and moved higher as they get bought into earning season. Once the earnings start to be released we should see the market get sold on the good numbers and retail traders will buy into the good numbers as the smart money selling their shares while there is liquidity in the market.
Speaking of pullbacks, I have been talking about silver and gold forming a top. A couple months ago in November I saw the first warning sign of distribution selling in the precious metals sector. There was a large drop in price with heavy volume which is a warning sign that the BIG MONEY is starting to roll out of that crowded trade (precious metals). The thing with tops is that they take a long time to form and become very choppy.
Since the November highs both silver and gold have more or less traded sideways. They never really went much higher and that’s because the big money is distributing their shares to smaller investors slowly overtime (retail buyers/average Joe’s). They try not to scare investors off so they sell their positions in chunks. What most people do now is that these sellers want higher highs to forming because once a new high has been created everyone become bullish again buying more on the breakout. It’s these waves of bullishness that the big money sells into which is why you see heavy volume after a new high has been formed.
Let’s take a look at some charts….
Silver Daily Chart
The silver chart clearly shows the bull market (markup phase) and also the distribution phase taking place now…. If things go according to plan then choppy/lower prices should take place in the coming 1-4 months.
The past 12 months it seems like everything has been a dollar based play. Meaning if you were to pull up a 1 minute chart of the dollar and a 1 minute chart of the SP500 or Gold, you would now that when the dollar moves up stocks and commodities go down and vise-versa. That being said the SP500 has started to move up with the dollar in the past month so there is a shift happening but it’s a slow change and is not much of a concern for gold right now.
If the dollar starts another leg higher it will make for good timing as market sentiment is at an extreme and earning season is here. That typically means lower prices in stocks and commodities.
Mid-Week Silver, Gold and Dollar Trading Conclusion:
In short, in the next 1-4 weeks I am bullish on the dollar, and bearish/neutral on stocks and commodities. The reason I’m neutral is because I don’t like to short things in a bull market phase as they can keep going up much longer than we think at times. Rather hold my strong positions and wait for a correction to buy/add once I feel the selling momentum has stopped later this year.
I would not be surprised if we get a 4-10% drop in the next few weeks in both stocks and commodities, but until I see a clear roll in price I will not be looking for any trades to the down side. I’m not in a rush to pick a top/short the market but if we get a setup we will take a small position to play a falling market. Be sure to visit the link to today’s video which is posted in the gold chart section above.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2011-01-05 21:13:392014-03-10 08:01:05How to Play the Current Silver, Gold and Dollar Reversal
Last week we had typical pre-holiday light volume trading going into US Thanksgiving. The previous week I warned every one to trade with extreme caution because of the light volume and the fact that the market is on the verge of a sizable drop for both stocks and commodities. Any price action could not be taken seriously because of the light volume. We will not know until later this coming week what the big money wants to do… Buy or Sell, also what the manipulators will do… Seems like there are a lot of wild cards out there with Europe issues and both unemployment and payroll numbers out on Friday morning.
Below are a few charts showing my intermediate term outlook for gold and silver.
Gold & Silver Futures – Daily Chart
You can see both metal are showing a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern. While they have yet to confirm and close below the neck line we must be aware of this pattern and the risk/potential it provides us with. Both metals are still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness.
US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
This chart is not really that helpful for trading stocks, commodities or options right now but I wanted to post it because it allows me to show you how I analyze the market and my trades.
As you can see, the past 3 weeks have been in a strong uptrend reaching the first resistance level. The point of this chart is to show you that if you step out to the next longer time frame you can get a solid feeling of where an investment will find major support and resistance levels. Any investment not matter if it’s a stock, commodity or currency, if the price is trading in the middle of a large range like this chart you should not be taking large positions because it almost becomes a 50/50 bet on the market which is not a good winning strategy unless you are very experienced at managing your trades and money.
If you are going to trade then you want to focus on the underlying trend and you do that by looking at the next larger time frame. For example: if you focus on trading the daily chart, then you must step back each week and review the weekly chart to be sure you are trading with the underlying trend which is up for the dollar right now.
Weekend Trading Ideas:
Tuesday morning we saw the SP500 gap lower and continue to sell off. Traders started panicking out of their long positions and we could see it using the intraday market internals charts, which I cover each morning in the pre-market trading videos. Me being a contrarian (buying into market fear, selling into market strength) I used that high level of fear in the market along with the expected light volume holiday week ahead as an excuse to book profits near the lows on SP500 using the SDS bear fund allowing us to profit from the falling market. I feel we are going to have some crazy moves on the markets going into year end and it should be a lot of fun if done correctly.
Trading in general is a very difficult task especially if you are doing it for a living and planning on using your monthly income to pay bills, salaries etc… We all know the stress which comes with trading and if do not have a solid trading strategy, rules and cannot properly manage yourself (emotions) then you are most likely running into problems like over-trading, getting shaken out of trades easily, and taking bigger risks than your account can handle. Each of these cause more traders to blow up their accounts and big up on trading.
I am giving away my book on how you can control your trades, money and emotions. This short and to the point guide is full of my trading techniques, tips and thoughts which will help you get a handle of your emotions turning the market noise into music.
The past few months it seems the gold and silver play has been getting a little crowded with everyone wanting to own gold. While I am a firm believer that these precious metals are a great hedge/investment long term, I can’t help but notice the price action and volume for both metals which looks to me like they are getting exhausted.
Silver – Daily Chart
The silver chart below shows an extremely high volume reversal candle in early November which typically leads to lower prices and some times a major change in the trend. That being said silver remains in an uptrend with the possibility of a bullish pennant forming. On the other hand there is a possible head and shoulders pattern forming. I will be looking for light volume sideways chop keeping a close eye for a possible neckline breakdown or a momentum thrust to the upside for a possible trade.
Gold – Daily Chart
Gold is forming a bullish and bearish pattern also giving us a mixed signal. I am currently neutral on gold and not really looking to take part until we get some type of clear price action.
US Dollar – 60 Minute Chart
The dollar has shown some strength recently. The US dollar play has been to take the short side, and a couple weeks ago we saw the dollar breakdown from yet another consolidation. It seems like everyone shorted the dollar yet again. That could have been a key pivot low for the dollar. On the weekly chart that bounce was off a major support trend line helping add some fuel to the rally I would think.
The chart below shows the recent rally and breakout to the upside. Currently the dollar is pulling back to test the breakout level (support). It will be interesting to see how this week unfolds. If the dollar bounces then we just may see metals break below their necklines to make another heavy volume drop.
Weekly Precious Metals Update:
In short, I have mixed feelings for gold and silver. Yes I think they are good long term plays, but after the run they have had it is also very possible a much deeper correction is about to take place and we may not see new highs for another year. That is a long time to have money sitting in an investment when it can be put to work in other investments. I know the herd (general public) is all head over heals in love with gold and silver which is one of the reasons why I think we are nearing a top if we didn’t already see it a couple weeks ago.
Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying to sell of go short metals… not yet anyways. They are both still in an up trend but some interesting things are unfolding which could cause big action in the coming weeks.
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Chris Vermeulen
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-11-21 22:54:052014-03-10 08:51:10The Gold & Silver Play Has Gone To Greed?
There have been some major trend changes recently and it looks as though more investments are about to follow. The real question though is… Are You Ready To Take Advantage Of It?
It has been an exciting ride to say the least with the equities and metals bull market and the plummeting dollar. But it looks as though their time is up, or at least for a few weeks. Traders and investors will slowly pull money off the table to lock in gains or cut losses and re-evaluate the overall market condition before stepping back up to the plate and taking another swing.
Below are a few charts showing some possible money making trade ideas in the weeks ahead.
TBT 20+ Treasury Note Inverse Fund
This fund moves inverse to the price of the 20yr T.N’s also known as bonds. Looking at the chart you can see the recent reversal which took place. We had a great entry point shortly after this reversal took place using my low risk setup strategy.
Falling bond prices are considered to have a negative impact on equities because it implies that interest rates may start rising which means more investors will pull money out of stocks and put that money into a safe interest earning investment. You will typically see bonds change direction before equities. That being said the chart below is an inverse fund, so when this bond fund goes up, it means actually indicates bond yields are falling. I will admit these inverse funds really throw my brain for a loop at time… I prefer the good old days, buying long and selling short… so simple and clean…
UUP – US Dollar Index Fund
This fund moves with the dollar and allows equities traders to take advantage of currency trading. This chart below shows a possible trend reversal for the dollar. If the dollar continues to rally then it’s also a good sign that interest rates could be rising in the near future and it also means more downward pressure on equities.
SDS – Inverse SP500 Index Fund
These bear funds make it possible for traders and investors to profit from a falling market using a regular buy and sell strategy. They can also be traded in retirement accounts making them a golden investment for those willing to play a falling market.
This chart moves the same as the SP500 index only flipped. As the SP500 falls this fund rallies.
The trading strategy we just used to play the recent rally is the same strategy we will use during a bear market, but instead of trading the SPY, we are trading this fund.
It is important to note that while bull market rallies tend to drag out; bear markets typically have faster movements. Fear is much more powerful than greed which is why the stock market drops quicker than it goes up.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
Gold also looks to be topping and could actually be starting to form a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern.
Mid-Week Trend Trading Conclusion:
In short, understanding inter-market analysis is crucial for traders/investors to know. Not understanding how they affect one other can be very costly in the long run. Remember that volatility and volume rise together at the end of a trend. You can view the recent volatility index (VIX) to see its price action also. Volatility changes also make for great low risk options trades if options are your thing. Focus on trading with the trend, bounces in a down trend are typically muted or trade sideways making is very difficult to make money buying in a falling stock market.
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Chris Vermeulen
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It has been a roller coaster week thus far as stocks and precious metals plunged on heavy selling volume on the back of a rising dollar, only to make a strong rebound Wednesday. While there has been significant intraday price movement, it was no surprise to us as we have been anticipating this pullback since discussing it in my Sunday Gold Newsletter.
Let’s take a quick look at the charts…
US Dollar Daily Trading Chart
The past couple weeks the dollar has traded in a choppy fashion, and last week I mentioned to subscribers to keep any new positions small. The dollar looked ready to make a bounce and if it reverses we will see stocks and commodities correct rather sharply.
Last week we trimmed some profits on our gold and SP500 trading positions in anticipation of a rising dollar/lower equity and metals prices. The dollar is currently in a down trend so we are still trading with the trend, but the next couple sessions could potentially change that.
As you can see on the chart a similar pattern to what we saw during the May/June top earlier this year has now formed in reverse this month. It’s a simple pattern I call a drop-n-wash. It is like dropping a knife – you panic, then take action (move foot, then wash the kife). That is typically how the market reacts to this type of price pattern after an extended trend has taking place for a long period of time.
The dollar made an obvious breakdown which the entire world witnessed, causing traders who recently went long to panic and sell their positions. Those who like to short the dollar would have taken a short position, only to see the market reverse and head straight back up again. This pattern has yet to confirm, but through the use of the shorter time frame charts (5 Min, 10 Min, 30 Min), I have a feeling the dollar may continue to rise. However, until the dollar shows considerable strength I am still playing the long equities / long gold side of the equation.
SPY – SP500 ETF Trading Fund
The SP500 made a nice move up last week and we trimmed our position back to lock in more gains as I anticipated this pullback and possible gap fill. As you can see on the chart the moving averages are all heading up and that’s the direction we are still focusing on playing (buying dips).
The morning dip on Wednesday the market sentiment started to shift to become extremely bearish on the short term time frame (10 minute charts). If the market drops down to fill the rest of that gap, I have a feeling the majority of traders will panic out of their position giving us an extreme sentiment buy signal. Also a gap fill will bring the price down to the key moving averages which will act as a support level. I will notify members to add more to my SP500 long position if that happens.
GLD – Gold ETF Trading Fund
Gold has much of the same story as the SP500 but with a couple twists. Gold has huge global demand from banks, investors and traders adding more buying power to this investment than stocks right now. We could see gold hold up above its gap that formed last week. That being said, a pullback to the key moving averages would not only act as a major support level but also fill the gap. We currently have our long positions, but trimmed some profits near the highs and are sitting tight letting the market work it’s self out.
My trading partner J.W. Jones posted a great gold play yesterday which had a nice payout already. Read about his gold options trade here.
Mid-Week ETF Trading Conclusion:
In short, the focus should be kept on trading with the underlying trends until a trend change has been confirmed. So that means short the dollar, long equities, metals and oil.
That being said, because things are starting to look unstable it is crucial to trade smaller position sizes during times of uncertainty like this. Anticipating major market tops is very difficult and generally costly play, just ask everyone who has been trying to pick a top for the past 2 months… Anticipate trend changes, but don’t trade them until the price/volume action confirms the new trend.
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Wednesday’s session closed mixed on the day. The DOW posted a third of a percent gain while the tech sector closed down almost nine tenths of a percent. While technology stocks have been leading the market higher in the recent months, today they took the back seat while the DOW took control.
Take a look at the intraday chart of the SPY price action compared to the tech sector. It’s clear the tech stocks where not in favor today. Some tech stocks that really took a beating today were FFIV, NTAP, APKT and AKAM.
On another note, we are entering earning season and I am wondering if we are going to see a “Sell the New” type of thing again.
The broad market is experiencing a 36 day down cycle which has played a very dominant roll in the market this year. It topped out 9 days ago so we should expect sideways chop or some selling over the next 9 trading session. Because the market is trending up, pullbacks should be shallow.
The market continues to grind its way higher on relatively light volume. I have been waiting several weeks now for the volume to come back into the market but its just not happening. The majority of shares being traded are from banks, funds and day traders as the average investor’s not taking part because of the uncertainty looming. The lack of volume (commitment) to the market from the masses is making the market internals swing from one extreme to another on virtually weekly basis making it more difficult to take advantage of short term extreme sentiment levels.
The current market environment has traders shifting gears to more of a momentum trading strategy to take advantage of trends and this is what I am going to start implementing again as the market expands.
Market Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is in an up trend but looks to be overbought. Also with the downward cycle I don’t think the market will expand here and take off. Rather it will most likely chop around and burn off time until some earnings are released and the cycle bottoms. Unless we get a really sharp reversal down which we have yet to see on the SP500 or DOW, nibbling on small long positions or staying in cash is what I am doing right now.
As for gold, silver, the dollar and oil… Well the dollar continues to lose value on a daily basis which in turn is boosting metals along with crude oil. All four of those investments are over extended but they are trending and not really looking like they want to reverse just yet.
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