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The S&P 500 Is Going Lower . . . Sooner Rather than Later

On Wednesday, January 28, 2015 it was early afternoon during the trading day and I arose from my screens to go grab a drink out of my refrigerator. In the process of grabbing a drink, I went out to see what came in the mail and to get a few moments of fresh air before the final hours of a fairly quiet trading day were through.

Upon reentering my office, I noted that my screens were flashing red and the S&P 500 was under assault from the sell side. I scanned several independent blogs I follow for a headline and came across nothing. It was at this moment that I did the unthinkable and I turned on CNBC. I am embarrassed to even admit it frankly, because the drivel CNBC and most of the financial media spew out might as well be sales material for the sell side and their “long-term investment view that is always bullish”.

I saw the S&P 500 under pressure and then a subsequent bounce occurred. Nothing major, not even what I would call a major retracement, just some short sellers locking in a few profits I presumed. To my absolute horror, seconds later I recall seeing the headline at the bottom of the television screen on CNBC dictating that “stocks were off their lows”. It is no wonder CNBC’s ratings are absolutely terrible.

While I am picking on CNBC, the mainstream financial media is just awful. In fact, I do everything in my power to ignore all sources from televised media such as CNBC and Fox Business to written media like the Wall Street Journal. In every case, every day stocks are going higher and they can never go down. Certainly with central bank omnipotence and sorcery, it will not be long before no one has to work and we will just own long only stock portfolios. [Sarc :)]

Regardless, I am an options trader who has weathered the storm fairly well. I sell premium, focus on implied volatility, and I use probability to build my trades. My style is similar to Tom Sosnoff’s for those following him on TastyTrade or Dough, but I mix in a few twists. Regardless of my trading style, I have a strong historical track record that I am proud of which has handily beaten the markets for several years, although 2014 was one of my worst year in recent memory.

The reason I mention this is simply to state that I am a trader first, and newsletter operator second. I am getting rich with my newsletter at $20 per month let me tell you. Honestly, I just send out trades. No fluff, no nonsense. I tell it like I see it and I admit when I am wrong. My trades typically have a 60% – 70% probability of success at the time of entry based on implied volatility calculations involving probabilities. At the end of the day, I trade options because I am a junkie . . . I absolutely love derivatives and trading them.

As such, some of my recent research at various independent blogs paired with what I can see in the options marketplace has led me to believe that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is going lower in the next 6 – 12 months. I want to be clear that I am not calling for a crash nor am I saying that the S&P 500 Index will remain under pressure, I am just simply calling for a correction in the very near future, although the situation could deteriorate into something much worse potentially.

However, here are a few data points worth considering which were originally posted by Tyler Durden at www.zerohedge.com:

“Revenue results are correlated to dollar strengthening, which has led to weaker revenue results and lower forward guidance that incorporates the FX headwind.”

Chart1

“Anecdotally, management commentary implies the dollar strengthening will lower revenue growth by 300-500 basis points. Foreign sales accounted for 33% of aggregate revenue for the S&P 500 in 2013. Based on our earnings model, a 10% strengthening of the trade-weighted dollar lowers S&P 500 2015 EPS by about $3.” To dig deeper into this, click HERE to view the entire article.

Obviously a strengthening U.S. Dollar is likely to push stocks lower based purely on earnings. However, valuations also matter and according to the same zerohedge.com article, “Consensus long-term growth estimates are slumping… which means multiple expansion is the only way to keep the dream of wealth creation alive.”

Chart2

I have to say that I get a great deal of sound, independent information from zerohedge.com which I find to be very useful for formulating trades. One more interesting chart I found over the weekend in a totally different post on their blog is shown below:

Chart3

So according to more than one article on zerohedge.com, the fundamental picture for earnings is being weighed down by a strong U.S. dollar. The earnings and valuation backdrop in the same article is also concerning in the intermediate to longer-term. Lastly, when looking at the correlation between the Commodity Index and the Baltic Dry Index, we see a sudden shift that places the S&P 500 Index in a major divergence compared to historic norms. Now that I have leaned heavily on zerohedge.com to handle the fundamental side of my research, it is time to dig into the derivatives side of the trade equation.

When looking at the S&P 500 Cash Index Options (SPX), another interesting observation is notable. When looking out to the June monthly expiration and Friday’s closing price in the S&P 500 Cash Index of 1,995, an interesting standard deviation skew appears. The June 1,525 Put is exactly 2 standard deviations from the current price on the downside. The June 2,200 Call is also 2 standard deviations from the current price.

This means that the market is pricing in about 205 points of upside or about 10.27% potential upside. Conversely, the two standard deviation move to the downside is roughly 400 points or about or roughly 20.04% potential downside. I would point out that the marketplace is pricing in a move of almost 2 times the severity on the downside in the S&P 500 Cash Index options. Pair this market expectation with the fundamental data discussed above, and the potential for serious downside does exist.

I want to be clear that I am already leaning short the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) in my portfolio as my beta weighted Delta against the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) is negative overall. However, I have not taken an actual short position in the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) or its cousin, SPY . . . at least not yet.

However, after seeing the U.S. Dollar strengthen recently I was able to enter a February call credit spread in EEM (Positive Time  Decay / Profitable if EEM moves lower) for the members only portfolio. That trade will likely be closed for some strong profits in a short period of time. The option trade was taken on January 23rd for a credit of 0.37 per spread.

Members of our ETF trading newsletter also has a position in an emerging market fund that is setting up for potential 60% move!

The trade could have been closed on Friday for 0.06 debit per spread. The difference, representing the profit on the trade is 0.31 or $31 per spread. The maximum risk per spread was $113, so the actual return based on maximum risk was 27.43% based on Friday’s closing prices. While this is a great return, not every trade works this well and produces profit this quickly.

While I will be locking in profits in the EEM February Call Credit Spread early this coming week, I intend to take a similarly bearish trade in the S&P 500 in the near future. I may look to go out as far as March expiration to take in additional premium and to buy myself a little more room on my upside breakeven price. However, I will likely move the overall portfolio to a slightly more negative bias in the near future.

Going forward, when I highlight trades I intend on discussing the trade structure used in the future as well as an ongoing account as to which trades were profitable and which trades did not work. I am excited about the service I am offering and the new, no-nonsense pricing model. I realize newsletters are really a dying business model, but I simply have too much fun writing about my trades and running the service. Granted a little extra spending money never hurt anyone, but I am having too much fun to quit!

Happy Option Trading!
Technical Traders Options Team & Chris Vermeulen
www.thetechnicaltraders.com/options/

Is Borate a Actor or Rare Earth Element Opportunity?

Over the last couple of months I have started sharing some insights on the penny stock market. Those of you who follow me know I have been steering clear of the penny stock market since 2011. Back during bull market from 2009 – 2011 investing in these types of stocks was highly rewarding but I don’t touch them during bear markets.

The second half of 2011 this pocket of the stock market collapsed and turned down. Unfortunately barely anyone watches this index so when it turned down in 2011 investors continued to hold onto their penny stocks and expected them to continue to rally with the broad market. But the rally never happened, or at least not yet.

This index is down 72% which is a tough drawdown to hold and not be concerned with but the good news is that it may be coming to an end.

tsx-venture

What has me intrigued is the fact that this index is testing its 2008 lows which is a great place for it to bottom. And why is this important you may be asking? Well, a rising index has the tendency to move 3 out of 4 stocks with it. And if you happen to fine which sector or hidden gem stocks have the most potential business growth you stand to make a lot of money.

For example the biotech sector was dormant for nearly 10 years from 2001 to 2011. Biotech’s are up 370% on average since the 2011 low. And know that if a sector/index is up 370% you can bet there are a ton of stocks up 500%, 1000%, 4500% also.

 

What are Borate and this Rare Element That I like?

Borate is a chemical compound which uses the chemical element Boron. Boron is not a resource many people know and from my knowledge there are only two companies that produce it and they control roughly 80% of the market.

Borates are used in 500 products including some of the fastest growing areas like borosilicate glass (LCD screens), ceramics and porcelain enamels, agriculture, insecticides, fire retardants, and high-tech products like lithium batteries, and even medicines. For example an iPad uses 9 grams of Boron in the special Corning glass.

The price of Boron has rocketed higher in recent years with all the new uses it has. From 2009 to 2012 the price rallied from $250/t up over $700/ton.

 

How to Play It

The two big players in Boron are publicly traded company Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) and Turkey’s state-owned Eti Maden AS. A position is Rio Tinto does not really give you much exposure as Boron is a small portion of the company’s overall revenue.

The leaves only one other company, Erin Ventures (TSX Venture: EV). Its tiny, its a penny stock, but it has a ton of great things happening from what I have researched and from communication with their CFO.

This little company is a 100% owner of a massive Boron rich properly in Serbia. The PEA reports show low mining costs, extremely high grade boron, enough material to last 21 years with a 15 month payback which is insanely fast… They expect to have $97,000,000 per year in revenue once the property is setup and running.

erin

 

Conclusion:

I like the looks of the long term chart for Erin Ventures. The pattern overall is bullish but with the Toronto Venture Exchange having been in a bear market since 2011 it has pulled the share price down with it. When the venture stocks bottom which could be any time now, keep your eye on this company.

Not very often you find a commodity that only has 1-2 companies in the world that control a substance. It’s almost a monopoly really. And with Erin Ventures being the only pure Boron stock which is 100% owner of a 21 year production deposit of higher grade Boron than the competitors I have to think this will be huge in due time.

Erin Venture is about to close a round of funding with their private placement for shares in the company so they can start their Boron project in Serbia. If I recall correctly they are looking for all investors especially small ones as they want quality investors holding shares. If you want to be a part of this placement call: Blake Fallis 1-250-384-1999 is their CFO who can provide more info about the company and private placement if you are interested.

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Disclaimer: I do not own shares of Rio Tinto or Erin Ventures and I was not paid to mention them in my article.

Crude Oil Slides to Multi Year Lows and What to Expect

Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.

The perfect example of this is the rubber band affect. If you pull an elastic band in one direction, eventually when it breaks or it’s released, the band will retrace back to the norm and then go in the opposite direction. You can see this on the chart from 2008 high of nearly $150 to the 2009 low of $40. Price then lost is momentum and has been somewhat range bound from 2011 – 2014 right in the middle at $95 per barrel.

Observing the price chart of oil below there are many technical indicators and patterns at play. The first important pattern to identify is the series of higher lows shown with the green trend line sloping upwards.

A rising trend line that has multiple pivot lows (bounces up the trend line) the price of oil creates what I call a perfect storm for waterfall type selloff. This is exactly what we have seen over the past 3 months.

Each time one of the pivot lows are breached, the stop loss orders are triggered for investors. This causes a flood of sell orders forcing price lower to fall below the next pivot low etc… This may look and sound easy to trade, but keep in mind this is a monthly chart, and short term traders are not trading this long term time frame. Only investors would be focusing on a move that would take months to a year to unfold.

The second key indicator to look at is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level typically acts as a support level for a small bounce usually. Because the 61.8% level is also in alignment with a previous consolidation, and a pivot low, both which have been highlighted on the chart, I suspect a bounce around the $65 level should take place.

The final potential bottom could take place near the 2009 low. It is a long way away but anything is possible and what we think is most unlikely to happen is exactly what the market does sometimes.

crudeoil

 

Crude Oil Conclusion:

In short, I think what crude oil is doing is healthy and needed for several reasons. If I let my bias/option shine through, I feel the big oil and gas companies have been taking advantage of us with their ridiculously high gas prices over the last seven years.

The multi-billion dollar, cash rich corporations need a little wakeup call.  And the hair cut in their share price should be great for investors. This allows them to build or re-enter new positions at a better price with a higher dividend yield.

I will be watching the hourly and daily charts for a bottoming/bounce formation in the next week. But any bounce could be short lived as sellers appear to be aggressive still.

Receive my personal trade alerts via email and SMS text alerts at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com with a 50% Black Friday Offer Today

Chris Vermeulen

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Bonds-the fourth quarter trade of 2014

If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have.

The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.

With fewer stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages each week, while the broad market S&P 500 index continues to rising, this bearish divergence is a red flag for long term investors.

When a handful of large-cap stocks are the only things propelling the stock market higher while the majority of small-cap stocks are falling you should keep new position sizes smaller than normal and start moving your protective stops up to lock in gains/reduce losses in case the market rolls over sooner than later.

Small cap stocks are typically a leading indicator of the broad market. The Russell 2000 index is what investors should keep a close eye on because it’s the index of small-cap stocks. Since March of this year, the Russell 2000 been trading sideways and actually making new lows. This tells us that big-money speculative traders are rotating out of the stock market and into other investments like high dividend paying stocks, blue chips, and likely bonds.

Looking at the chart below I have overlaid the S&P 500 index and the price of bonds. History has a way of repeating itself; although it may never feel the same and the economy may be different, price action of investments have the tendency to repeat.

In 2011 we saw the stock market and bonds form specific patterns. These patterns clearly show that money was rotating out of the stock market and into bonds. During times of uncertainty in the stocks market money has the tendency to move into bonds, as they are known as a safe haven. Bonds tend to reverse before the stock market does, so if you have never tracked the price chart of bonds before, then you should start.

SPXvsBONDS

From late 2013 until now bonds and the stock market have repeated the same price patterns from 2011. If history is going to repeat itself, which the technical and statistical analysis is also favoring, we should see the stock market correct 18% to 30% in the near future. If this happens bonds will rally to new highs.

It’s important to realize the chart above is weekly. Each candle represents five trading days, and four candles represents one month. So while this chart points to an imminent selloff from a visual standpoint, keep in mind this could take 2 to 3 months to unfold or longer. The market always has a way of dragging things out. If the market can’t shake you out, it will wait you out.

So if you are short the market or planning to short the market be very cautious as it could be choppy for the next several weeks and possibly months before price truly breaks down and we see price freefall.

To get my pre-market video analysis each day, and trade alerts visit: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Option Skew Points to More Downside Potential in the Nasdaq

By now it is no secret that equity markets continue to deliver solid gains for 2014. In fact, all of the major U.S. domestic stock market indexes are higher for the year. U.S. equities have benefited from an accommodating Federal Reserve, massive corporate stock buy-back plans, and solid earnings growth. The bullish trend which began in early 2009 has pushed equity indexes to several all-time highs.

However, when we focus our attention on 2014 one index is showing major relative out performance. The Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 indexes have blown away every other major index in terms of overall returns in 2014. The chart shown below illustrates the returns of each major U.S. equity index year-to-date.

Chart1

As can be seen above, when looking at the corresponding ETF for each major index, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is running away from every other major index in terms of performance. As a contrarian trader, I am of the opinion that now may be an excellent time to consider looking for a possible short position to hedge against the bullish trend.

The equity markets in the United States are becoming frothy and prices are at the very least fair valued if not overvalued depending on which methods are used to calculate current prices. When we consider the major out performance in the Nasdaq 100 Index, it would only make sense that if we see downside in the future we could capture some big potential profits.

As an option trader who focuses primarily on probabilities for trade executions using a variety of implied volatility calculations and Delta assumptions, the following observations regarding the Nasdaq 100 Cash Index (NDX) were derived based on data points on Friday, August 29th.

Based on the September NDX option expiration date, the current skew in the NDX option data is to the downside. In fact, as I am typing this NDX is trading around 4,075. A 2 standard deviation move to the upside (90%) is around the 4,200 call strike and the same measurement to the downside is around the 3,900 put strike.

Chart2

When looking at the same data based on the October NDX option expiration date, the current skew in the NDX option data demonstrates more aggressive downside Skew in October versus September. A 2    standard deviation move in the October series to the upside (90%) is around the 4,275 call strike and the same measurement to the downside is around the 3,755 put strike.

Chart3

While I realize this is somewhat technical, the main premise is that the option market in the Nasdaq 100 Cash Index (NDX) is skewed toward more potential downside risk. This data lead me to place a new trade earlier this week which was next short the Nasdaq 100 Cash Index (NDX) using an October Call Credit Spread as a trade structure.

Recent results for the service have been very strong for the options alert service. The last 4 trades have produced a 13.95% winner in Matador Resources (MTDR), a 17.05% winner in the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX), a small 1% loss in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and a 21.95% in the Russell 2000 Cash Index  (RUT). The options newsletter service is priced super affordable at just $29.99 per month with new trade alerts sent out almost daily.

Ultimately time will tell if the skew in the NDX proves to work. For now, I like the near 75% probability of success that the NDX Call Credit Spread is offering with a nearly 20% potential return. In the future readers can expect a recap of this trade. Happy Trading!

Chris Vermeulen
www.thetechnicaltraders.com/options/

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Gold and Oil on the Verge of Something Big – Hero’s Rarely Win

Everyone has been calling for a bottom in Gold the last year. But the fact is that gold and gold stocks are still clearly in a bear market. Just look at the 200 day moving averages. The previous trends were down and prices have been moving sideways for the past year.

A lot of newsletter and analysts are calling a bottom. Technically it’s just a consolidation pattern. Consolidation patterns are a continuation pattern, meaning if the previous trend was down, which it was from 2011 till now, the odds favor price will continue lower after this consolidation.

goldbear

If this consolidation does happen to be the bottom then we can classify it as a stage I base. Gold and gold stocks will start a new bull market, but price needs to break to the upside of this consolidation pattern. Until it breaks to the upside, it is still in a down trend.

Gold topped out over three years ago. And I am in no rush to try to pick a bottom and be a hero here. I’m just going to continue waiting on the sidelines until price confirms either a new bull market has started or for price to breakdown and we get another leg lower.

 

Oil Outlook

Taking a look at the big picture of crude oil the chart looks bearish. It too has been trading in a range since 2011 and the price is nearing the apex of a consolidation pattern.

oilbear

It’s important to know that a pennant formation which is what crude oil has formed are the most predictable when price breaks out of the pattern within the first 1/3rd of the formation.

The longer price consolidates and gets squeezed into the narrowing apex of the pennant pattern, the more unreliable. The trend breakout will be, and it becomes at best a 50/50 bet.

Crude oil’s previous trend was up, but it’s been consolidating for such a long time that price is now squeezed into the apex. This negates that bias for the previous trend to hold true so we have no idea which why it will breakout but when it does expect an explosive move.

A breakdown in crude oil will send price to the $70 or $75 per barrel range, and that will hammer on the Canadian dollar also. I can see $1 USD being equivalent to $1.20 Canadian in a year.

My Gold and Oil Conclusion

Looking at the US dollar, it has been rising partly due to the euro falling. This strong dollar will put a downward pressure on commodities overall.

Automated Trading System

Gold and oil have not been that exciting for investors since 2011 when they topped out, but both are setting up for massive moves that should last month, if not year or more. Once these new trends emerge expect to see them in the headline news every hour.

It does not matter which way these commodities breakout of the consolidation patterns. With the dollar continuing to rise and the bearish chart patterns for both gold and oil there is a good chance much lower prices are ahead.

This will catch most investor’s off guard. It’s human nature to try to predict tops and bottoms in the market. But this is why most investors get caught on the wrong side of the market. The market always has a way of catching the majority of people on the wrong side of a position.

I am happily sitting in cash with some of my investment capital waiting for gold and oil to breakout of these large patterns. I would not be surprised if we see $900 gold, gold stocks like the gold bugs index $HUI to be at $150, and $70 per barrel for crude oil. I am not saying this is what I want, but you should be mentally prepared so you can get back into cash position and so you can take advantage of falling prices with me.

Big money will be made on the next price movements in these commodities. Whether we have to go long the market or short sell the market. Either way, we can make money. So don’t be a hero and try to pick a top or bottom, just wait for confirmed breakout then invest with the trend.

Would you like my trade alerts CLICK HERE

Want my SP500 trades executed for you in your brokerage account CLICK HERE

Charting your way to financial freedom,

Chris Vermeulen

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How to make money from uncertainty

If you have been struggling with your trading the past few months with most of your stocks losing value as the broad market continues to make new highs, you are not alone. There is a common reason why your individual stocks have been up so hard the past two months and I will tell you why in the next educational trading video I send you next week.
 
In the mean time subscribers of TheGoldAndOilGuy Newsletter pocketed 6.3% on our EDV bond ETF last week. We still hold a core position but the easy money in that asset class has now been made.
 
See Chart Below:

 
Become a more educated and consistent trader with my trade alert newsletter: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Sincerely,
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
www.AlgoTrades.net

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Quantitative Trading XLU – Utility Stocks Will Continue to Outperform

See this weeks XLU trade setup and how I use fibonacci extensions for my price targets in the video below.

Also, I posted an exclusive article with my updated quantitative trading gold forecast.

START QUANTITATIVE TRADING WITH ME TODAY!
Click Here

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Silver Forecast and Prediction of Silver Stocks

Silver Forecast WebsiteSilver forecast shows you the critical line in the sand that silver must hold if the new bull market is to start in the near future. If silver can find support here then I predict silver to rally and break out of its basing pattern in the next 2-3 months.

Silver Forecast & Equities Prediction

In this article I show you how to read and trade using trend lines. Most individuals trade trend lines incorrectly and my example is using the US Dollar index chart which is one of the main points why my silver forecast is bullish.

Silver remains is a downtrend or basing phase at this point, but some big price action is just around the corner. Silver traders and investors should be aware that if silver breaks below its sell support zone it could be in for a world of hurt…

Silver and gold mining stocks are in a similar position but we are seeing bullish divergence when comparing the gold miners bullish percent index to the GDX etf. This is pointing to higher price for silver and gold stocks. Keep in mind that divergence is an early warning indicator and trades should not be traded based upon that alone.

Read my: Silver Forecast

If you have not yet read my gold forecast read it now: Gold Forecast

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold Forecast & How To Momentum Trade Gold Stocks

Gold Forecast PredictionBack on April 9th I posted a short tutorial on how to momentum trade gold along with my short term gold forecast.

Today I wanted to do a follow up video for my gold market traders for three reasons:

1. I had lots of great feedback from traders taking advantage of what I showed to profit in the past week.

2. To show you how and why this strategy works better with gold stocks and silver stocks.

3. To provide my short term gold forecast so you are on the right side of the market for next week.

4. Also you should see my major long term Gold Forecast

Get My Gold Forecast & Gold Trade Alerts: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen