Archive for year: 2018

Our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold and Silver will begin a new upside rally very quickly.  We wrote about how our modeling systems are suggesting this upside move could be a tremendous opportunity for investors over 2 weeks ago.  Our initial target is near the $1245 level and our second target is near the $1309 level.  Recent lows help to confirm this upside projection as the most recent low prices created a price rotation that supports further upside price action.  What is needed right now is a push above $1220 before we begin to see the real acceleration higher.

The Daily Gold chart, below, shows our Fibonacci modeling system suggesting that $1235 to $1250 are the upside target ranges.  Near these levels, we should expect some price rotation before another leg higher begins.  Currently, support near $1180 is the floor in Gold.

If you are a fan of the shiny metals and want to know what we believe is likely to happen over the next 8+ months, then please take a moment to join the Wealth Building Newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.  We provide even more detailed research and predictive price modeling for our subscribers and we believe this bottom setting up in Gold may be the last time you see $1200 prices for a while.  Check out www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen

Just in time for what appears to be a potentially massive market price rotation, our researchers have put together this post to highlight what we believe will become a surprise price correction in the US Equities markets.  Our team of researchers believes the correlation of our predictive modeling tools, predictive cycle tools, and other indicators are set up for what may become a massive 5~8% price rotation over the next 60 days.

We were expecting this rotation to start unfolding around mid-September (now) but at this time the technical are still bullish so we are not betting against the market just yet.

The combination of new US tariffs ($200 Billion about to hit in the China trade war), as well as a combination of technical issues with regards to Technology Stocks and retail expectations, could jolt the market if a correction does take place as our predictive modeling tools suggest.  A simple rotation of 2~3% is fairly common in the markets.  These predictive modeling solutions are suggesting we are just 4~5 days away from the start of a much bigger correction in the US Equities and Indexes.

We believe the coming US elections in combination with the other aspects of the global economy are going to drive a downward price correction that many people are not expecting right now. But there is one pocket of stocks that could benefit from this tariff stuff which members or our Wealth Building Newsletter just got long today!

Anyway, Let’s take a look at some of our index charts to see how this will likely play out.

This first chart is a Daily ES chart showing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling tool.  The YELLOW/CYAN dashed lines over the price bars and into the future show the highest probable outcome from the ADL predictive modeling analysis.  This instance that predicts a 5~6 day price advance before a price peak sets up consisted of 105 unique instances of correlative price data making up this predictive analysis.  In other words, 105 unique instances of similar predictive price patterns and predicts future price moves based on the highest likely outcome of all instances of data.

In this case, the ADL modeling system is suggesting we have about 4~6 more days of moderately higher price activity before a price top/peak will setup – prompting a new downward price trend.

This ES Weekly ADL price chart correlates with the Daily chart almost perfectly.  The Weekly chart predicts one additional week of upward price action before a massive 5~6% price decline drives prices lower.  This massive price rotation executes over a 1 to 2-week span before briefly stalling, then an additional price decline of about 2% sets up driving prices to a predicted low near $2670 (-8.58%) on November 1, 2018 (just before the US elections).

This ADL analysis was generated by 112 unique instances of similar price data and the combined highest probability outcome is shown by the YELLOW and CYAN dashed lines on the chart.  Simply put, we have a very high probability of a 5~8% price correction setting up over the next 20+ days in the US Equities markets with a projected bottom setting up near $2670.

This last Weekly Transportation Index chart displaying the ADL predictive modeling system paints a very interesting picture when you combine it with the two earlier charts.  The Transportation index typically leads the major markets by about 3 to 6 months.  We have seen continued upside price advances in the Transportation Index over the past 6 months which leads us to think the US equities markets will continue to push higher overall.  Yet, this Weekly ADL predictive modeling chart shows two massive price rotations are likely to unfold before the end of 2018.  The first one is set up for a downside price rotation, ending near $10,800, starting the week of September 17, 2018, and lasting about 3~4 weeks.  Then, the ADL predicts the Transportation Index will rocket higher, near $11,800, for about 5~6 weeks before falling again to retest the $10,800 lows near early December 2018.

We believe critical global news and expectations regarding global trade, banking and credit may become the catalysts for these moves.  The US is expected to enact over $200 billion in trade tariffs this week with China.  We believe the ADL predictive modeling system is capable of identifying these massive price rotations and predicting the future rotations simply because of the massive amounts of data that it is capable of crunching.  This Weekly ADL prediction consisted of 112 unique price instances and displays only the highest probable outcome.  In other words, our predictive modeling system is suggesting these price moves are likely to happen based on its analysis with a greater than 50% probability.

Please pay close attention to our research posts and other articles throughout the end of this year and early into 2019.  As we have been attempting to warn our followers, expect increased volatility and wider price rotation throughout the end of this year.

We expect to find a number of incredible opportunities for our members over the next few months and we have already been incredibly successful throughout this recent price rally.  Our ADL systems predicted this upside price move in February of 2018 and we have stuck with it.  Now, the ADL is predicting a massive rotation is about to take place – somewhat similar to February 2018.  If you want to learn how to profit from these moves, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our members stay ahead of these types of market moves.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

The recent upside breakout seen in the US Transportation Index is a very important signal for traders.  Our research team has been following these moves for many months and we believe the recent upside breakout in the $TRAN is a strong sign of future US Equities price moves and all traders should be paying very close attention.

The Transportation Index typically leads the US Equities markets by about 3 to 6 months.  Transportation is one of the core elements of economic activity.  Items entering the US or distributed throughout the US must rely on transportation to ship/deliver these goods to resellers, wholesalers, and ports.  When the Transportation Index rises, one should expect the economic activity to continue to increase.

Given that we are only three months from the Christmas holiday season and understanding that retailers, wholesalers, and warehouses have likely already been stocking up on the holiday items, it makes sense that the Transportation Index would have been climbing over the past few months.  Remember, the Transportation Index leads equities by about 3 to 6 months.  So, we would have expected the Transportation Index to rally about 6 months before December if the economy was strengthening.

The breakout rally currently exhibited in the Transportation Index paints a picture that many may not be aware of for early 2019.  Should the Transportation Index rally continue into October or November, or possibly longer, this would indicate that the US Equities market could continue to rally well into March or April of 2019 – possibly much longer.  This means traders looking for a massive top any time soon, or big short sellers could have some big soling positions as this rally continues for the next 6+ months. While many are bearish on stocks and short the market, we remain long IYT with our position with members.

Let’s take a look at another chart.  This Daily Transportation Index chart is very long term as we wanted to clearly illustrate the Standard Deviation channel that is in place going all the way back to 2016.  The DASHED lines on the chart represent the Standard Deviation channel range that is likely to continue to operate as a price boundary going forward.  The ARCs that appear on the chart are a unique tool we use to measure Fibonacci price acceleration and ranges.  The upside price breakout points to an upside target of near $11,800 to $12,00 very quickly.  From this level, we expect a bit of price rotation before another upside leg begins.

This next chart is the same Daily Transportation Index chart, just a closer view of the most recent 10+ months of price data.  We can still see the Standard Deviation channel ranges and the upside breakout highlighted by our GREEN arrow.  We’ve also added a Fibonacci price extension tool based on recent price rotation that points to an $11,773 upside target.  We see confluence in multiple analysis techniques when multiple studies point to the same outcome.  In this case, the Fibonacci Arcs, Fibonacci extensions and Standard Deviation channel all support the continued rally to near $11,800 for the Transportation Index.

As traders, this should be a very interesting and rewarding “look into the future” for many of you.  These charts are suggesting the US Equities markets may continue to push much higher well into early 2019.  As long as this upside trend in the Transportation Index continues, we should continue to expect a strengthening US economy, stronger economic and GDP levels and stronger consumer activities.  In other words, get ready for some great long trades over the next few months and get ready to pick apart these opportunities as they play out.

Our team or researchers and professionals have been long the Transportation index for many weeks now.  We identified this move months ago and alerted our followers to get into this trade early.  If you want to know what our team of professional traders are telling our members now and how to find great opportunities throughout this move, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen

Our researchers at Technical Traders Ltd. have identified a potential in the markets that many people may have overlooked or are not prepared for.  The recent strength in the markets has skewed many opinions toward the bullish perspective as the S&P, DOW, Transports and Nasdaq have all pushed towards new all-time highs.

We are writing this research post to alert our followers that we believe the US Indices and major markets may be setting up for a moderately deep price pullback that could be in excess of 5% or more.

Our proprietary price modeling systems and advanced learning models are warning us that the upside trend is likely still in place, yet there is a growing and stronger potential for a price pullback that could result in a 4~7% pullback in the near future. We want to alert all our followers that we believe an immediate price pullback is setting up and to protect your long positions.

The continued rally in the US majors has allowed many traders to become overly comfortable to the potential for a major pullback.  Much like what happened in February 2018, when a bigger pullback did happen, all of the sudden traders were screaming that a massive top had formed and that everyone should watch out for a further breakdown in price values.  We are not saying that right now and we want to be clear – so please read the following statement very clearly…

We believe a 4~7% price pullback is setting up in the US markets that will likely extend into September 2018 before forming a new price bottom and prompting the markets to rally to new all-time highs before the end of 2018.  We believe this price pullback/rotation is healthy for the markets after such an extended rally and we believe many traders are discounting the potential for such a move and will surprise many traders.  Protect your long positions and prepare for this type of price pullback.  You will be able to re-enter your positions as the bottom sets up and a new rally begins.

Let’s take a look at some of the charts that support our research.

We’ll start with the SPY and highlight our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system.  The recent Daily price rotation in the SPY has illustrated that price has reached the CYAN projected price point.  This should be the first level of resistance that price encounters within the current rally.  The lower BLUE projected price point is the current major support level.  The fact that we are currently breaching the all-time high levels adds greater weight to the fact that resistance should be relatively strong near these highs and that we could see a major price rotation setting up near these levels.  The downside Fibonacci price targets suggest a 2~5% price decline is possible given current price ranges.

This Weekly SPY chart highlights the key resistance level that is currently at play in the markets from the February 2018 highs.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that prices could, and should, continue to rally to well above the current highs over time.  Yet, the current Weekly downside price projection levels show a potential for price to move to 254.65 as the nearest key Fibonacci support level – and possibly even lower to near $224.  Yes, this Weekly chart is indicating the SPY could fall -12% on a medium-term pullback or as far as -22% with a deeper pullback and still have the potential for new highs before the end of 2018.

You might be asking, “how could this happen and what would prompt this move?”.  We assume it would be some geopolitical or global economic mini-crisis that would prompt such a move, but it could be that investors simply rotate capital out of the US markets chasing opportunities in other foreign markets or debt instruments.  The fundamentals for a continued US rally are still in place for at least 6+ months – we are just concerned that a moderately deeper pullback than many are expecting is right around the corner and about to hit the markets.  We don’t believe this pullback will be the start of a new bearish price trend.

If you want to learn more about our research, services and how we can help you find and execute better trades, then please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our team of researchers and products for traders.  You can also review all of our past research posts to learn how we have been calling these market moves for the past 12+ months.  We urge you to pay attention to our work because we believe we have some of the most advanced and accurate market timing tools on the planet.  Time will tell if we are correct with Today’s call – bet we want you to understand the risks and potential rewards that are presented right now in the markets.  Take a minute to see how we can help you become a better trader as these moves play out over the next 12+ months.