The US stocks are already up 1.5%, and gold 1.1% or more on news originating from Argentina from the G20 meeting. The commitment from the US and China to restore talks and hold off on new trade tariffs for a 90-day period of time allows the markets some breathing room and some time to digest future expectations. Combine that with the US Fed talking about taking a more dovish approach to rates and that rates are near “neutral” and we have a perfect setup for the global equity markets to rally back towards recent all-time highs.
This type of equity opportunity will push the metals markets towards recent price ranges/lows with almost no attempt at upward price activity. In our opinion, we are looking for the next 14 days to be quite explosive in the equities markets and quite mute in the metal’s markets.
Gold will likely stay below $1250 for the next 10~14 days as a renewed global equities rally takes hold. This is an excellent time to establish new long positions as our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that the metals markets should start to move higher near the end of 2018 and into early 2019.
Silver will likely stay below $14.40 for the next 10~14 days with the possibility of falling below $14 on a washout low price rotation near Dec 10th or 11th. This would be an excellent time to look for and set up positional long trades in metals miners or SIL in preparation for the late December and early Jan price pop that our predictive modeling system is suggesting will happen.
The initial upswing price activity in the metals will push prices above recent price peaks ($1260 for Gold and $15.00 for Silver). Our modeling systems suggest this price move will stall in late Jan 2019 and continue to stay muted till April or May of 2019. At that point, a new upside price advance will push metals prices much higher.
This may be the last time you see prices near these lows, so be aware of the risks that are ahead of the markets. Remember, the EU and the Brexit deals will likely play a role in the rise of the metals prices over the next few months, so take advantage of these setups before they vanish.
Follow our analysis to stay on the right side of this move. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling these market moves 30~60+ days in advance. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Chart_18-12-02_GC_Fib_W.png440700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-12-04 09:10:392018-12-04 09:10:39Renewed Economic Optimism Will Hold Metals Near Recent Lows
This weekend could have turned out extremely positive or extremely negative for the global markets. It appears the news about the US and China adopting a 90 resolve to prevent escalation of trade issues in an attempt to foster a more suitable outcome for global trade was received by the global equity markets with great success.
The US markets are up well over 1.5% on a massive price gap higher as markets opened Sunday night. This huge gap above the longer term Moving Average may be an indication that the US markets will attempt to rally to new all-time highs before the end of this year as we have been predicting for the past 50+ days.
What we need to see is the target price of 2842 being reached where we expect a bit of consolidation before price attempt to rocket higher towards new all-time highs.
At this point, shorts will be covering positions quickly over the next few days as they were caught on the wrong side of this trade. A massive short squeeze rally could unravel as a massive upside price move over the next 10~14 days ending just before Christmas 2018.
Follow our analysis to stay on the right side of this move. Our predictive modeling systems have been calling these market moves 30~60+ days in advance. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Chart_18-12-02_UpsideGap.png440700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-12-03 10:04:082018-12-03 10:04:08US and Asian Markets POP on G20 News
The continued efforts of our research team to identify and quantify the possibility that the capital shift which has taken place over the past 18+ months may be shifting to other assets is in the interest of all global investors. Is there a new, more opportunistic investment that will take away from the capital that has been rushing into the US equity markets over the past 2+ years or is the capital shift towards the US equity markets still intact? These are the questions before us and these are the questions that will determine if the US equity markets continue to rally or continue to top out.
In part one of this research article, we began to explore the aspects of our research that we believe are key to understanding the future of the global capital shift phenomenon. In short, the capital shift is the movement of investment capital from one asset to another asset (from country to country, from one form to another or from one asset class to another) in an attempt to seek out and secure the best, safest and most secure ROI on the planet. We believe this process has been a driving force behind much of the global markets success or malaise over the past 4+ years (actually starting near 2013 when wealth in China and capital controls forced investors to seek outside investment sources).
Additionally, in part one of this research article, we highlighted the traditional range channels of the US equity market and how these ranges have played an important role in identifying price support. Currently, the US market is sitting at the middle support level of historical ranges after retracing from recent highs. This is far from the “crash moment” that many are predicting. The reality is that this is more of a reversion to support in a strongly upward sloping price channel.
Let’s start out by asking the question “what will happen to Asia/China over the next 2+ years and what will happen with the capital from Asian investors?” Should we believe that China/Asia capital markets are healthy and robust for sufficient ROI in current form or are these investors seeking outside sources for healthier and safer ROI solutions for their capital? And what should we expect over the next 18~24+ months beginning in early 2019?
Our Custom China/Asia Index has clearly shown that prices have reflected a downward trend since the top in early 2018. This price decline has already breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and appear to be attempting a deeper price move lower. We believe the banking/credit/expansion issues in Asia/China are related to this capital contraction and won’t abate until the majority of these issues are resolved. In other words, there is far too much uncertainty in this area of the investment world to support a change in investor sentiment. Yes, everyone wants to see Asia/China settle these economic issues and become poised for a stronger growth model going forward, but everyone is also waiting for the next shoe to drop to detail these expectations. Housing, Trade, Credit Markets, Banking, Global Objectives, Regional Issues, Manufacturing?? Pick one and wait a few months for some news. At this point, there is so much news originating from China/Asia that is pointing to a broad market correction that we are simply waiting for the next news item to hit.
The One Belt, One Road project is another concerning aspect to what China/Asia is capable of achieving. This project is incredibly diverse – spanning dozens of nations/countries. The reality of this project is that uncertainty abounds from all angles when one considers the routs this project is taking and the global uncertainties that originate from many of the areas on these routes. Tehran, Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta?? Sure, the land and sea transport solutions offer a very interesting and dynamic shift for economic growth, but this is all based on the assumption that wars, graft, politics and local/regional tensions don’t flame up to halt or block any of these routes and the future success of this project.
Already, Malaysia has terminated multiple projects related to the One Belt, One Road objective because of corruption and fraud against the Malaysian people. We are reading news stories of Pakistan and other nations questioning the deals made with China in support of this project. In our opinion, the land routes are much more fragile than the sea routes. Ships can change course and head to another port if needed. Train tracks are not easily relocated and shifted around to address regional issues.
Additionally, the global commodities pricing index (from Bloomberg) is suggesting that global commodities have reached a peak and are declining. This puts pricing pressures on larger global projects like the One Belt, One Road project because profits from mining or manufacturing raw commodities and secondary commodity products are dramatically decreased. This would also suggest that suppliers and manufacturers may be experiencing an economic stall in terms of growth expectations over the next few years. If the commodities futures prices are declining, then global investors are not seeing any aspect of the global markets that would relate to higher demand, manufacturing or increased general consumption/use of global commodities.
Watch Crude Oil for signs of life in the economy. The price of Oil is often a very good gauge of economic activity and expectations in terms of freight, shipping, consumer activities and more. Oil has seen a very dramatic selloff over the past 2 months and is nearing levels that should be concerning for producers. Oil price levels below $40 ppb could be a game changer for much of the Arab world.
Our conclusion is that until global investors see the true opportunity for Asia/China and see real strength in the global commodities markets, risks continue to outweigh opportunities in much of Asia/China. Therefore, we believe the capital shift phenomenon originating from this region will continue to source more suitable returns in other global investments. Should the commodity index break down or the Chinese/Asian markets collapse further, we believe the push for outside safety will increase. This may be likely near the start of 2019.
Want to know what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting will happen in 2019 and beyond? Are you searching for a dedicated team of researchers that can help you understand where opportunities are and how to find great trades? Take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you and help you find greater success. Want to see how we’ve been calling the markets, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our public research posts. 2019 and 2020 are setting up to be incredible opportunities for investors – get ready for some incredible success with these bigger price swings playing out.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/One-Belt-One-Road.jpg368700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-12-03 09:30:402018-12-03 09:30:40PART II – Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting
Our researchers spent a good portion of the holiday weekend researching a continued capital shift that is taking place in the US equities markets and throughout the global market. Over the past 20+ months, a massive capital shift has taken place where investment capital fled weaker global economies and rushed into the US stock market because of a tremendous value opportunity that existed at that time. Technology, Biotech and many others equity sectors were skyrocketing – in some cases 2~3% a month. This ROI, along with the benefit of a stronger US Dollar, created a very unique environment where foreign capital could rush into the US markets, land pretty much anywhere and become relatively safe from foreign risks/devaluation.
Yet, over the past 45+ days, the US equity markets have declined dramatically and our researchers wanted to investigate if this capital shift dynamic had abated or ended recently. This could be a very important question for investors to understand because the most to safety for capital is one of the most critical functions of capital preservation.
Capital operates under the premise that certain risks will be allowed as long as ROI is sufficient to offset those risks. Capital tends to move away from hostile environments and towards environments that are stable and capable of generating returns with limited risks. The only time capital rushes towards high-risk returns is when managers become greedy with their client’s money. Yes, these types of returns can be tremendous when there is little risk, but these high-risk returns often result in “unknowns” that can be catastrophic for investors (think Greece or Puerto Rico). Overall, far greater capital is deployed in more traditional investment sources that are lower risk and produce lower ROI as a means of supporting long term objectives.
The question before our research team is “has the capital shift that we believe has taken place over the past 18+ months changed direction or changed focus and how can we profit from this dynamic?” It is our believe that capital is still searching for the safest and most capable ROI on the planet in comparison to global economic and currency risks. Has the economic environment changed so much that capital is now searching for new sources of safety and return?
Our researchers focused on four key aspects of the global economy in an attempt to answer these questions :
_ US/North America Future Economic Expectations/Realities
By focusing on these different regions of economic power and capital, we believe we can attempt to develop a better understanding of where capital will find suitable investment environments and stability over the next 12 to 18+ months and better understand how capital will be deployed in the future.
The new cycle is full of concerning headlines from all over the planet. Russia and Ukraine appear to be headed into a conflict. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already entered a war (of sorts) over the Jamal Khashoggi murder with could conflate into broader issues for Iran, Syria, Russia, the US, and many other nations. China is experiencing an economic slowdown that could result in a populous uprising if conditions don’t improve soon – as we are starting to see in Hong Kong. Regions of Europe are already cracking under a severe banking/credit risk scenario with little to no hope of support from the EU. And thousands of migrants are rushing the US border attempting to flood into the US illegally as they feel it is their right to invade a nation that is offering entitlements to all invaders. If we step back and really consider all of this, the world certainly appears to be unraveling before our very eyes. The fabric of society that was in place 20+ years ago seems to be tearing apart more and more each second.
As long as the US Dollar continues to strengthen above $92 and Gold/Silver continue to form a deep price base (as we recently suggested here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-moving-in-unison-for-a-massive-price-advance-part-ii/) we believe the US equity markets will quickly find support near current lows and attempt a new price rally that should push prices back towards new price highs before the end of January 2019. Take a look at this Weekly chart of our Custom US Equity Market Composite Index.
Although the recent price decline has been dramatic and concerning, the reality of this price correction is that it has dropped to the middle level of longer-term support originating from the 2012 to 2016 price range. When we take a very long-term view of the markets, the middle (green area) of price rotation has continued to act as resistance and support for price over the past 2~3 years. In 2015~2017, this area acted as resistance. In late 2017 and early 2018, the US equity markets began a dramatic acceleration that resulted in this same area becoming support for the price (seen in Feb 2018). Overall, this recent price decline is likely a result of the US Fed prompting longer-term concerns and the US elections prompting some levels of uncertainty in the markets.
How will investors digest the remaining 30+ trading days for 2018 and early 2019 in light of this retracement and new price valuation? Will these price levels be viewed as advantageous buy levels of will further pricing concerns prevent investors from pulling the trigger? We’ll continue our research and attempt to more clearly illustrate our findings in the next part of this multi-part research article. Right now, think about how the global markets are set for the next 30~90 days of trading action and think about what you believe will be the likely outcome of the new year (the end of the Christmas season, the start of a new year and the continued shifting global economic headlines).
We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders with big price swings and fantastic opportunities for traders. Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our research team and how we can assist you in finding great trades. We have been calling these market moves with incredible accuracy over the past 18+ months because of our proprietary research tools and skilled researchers. Try our services and see for yourself how we can help you become a better trader. Stay Tuned for Part II
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/US_CI_Weekly_F.png391700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-29 22:22:442018-11-29 22:22:44Global Economic Perceptions Are Shifting – PART I
Crypto enthusiasts were crushed over the Thanksgiving holiday when a fight over Bitcoin Cash and very thin liquidity prompted a massive price breakdown from recent highs. This downside move reflects a true price breakdown where Bitcoin bulls have to rethink their future strategies.
Back in October 2018, we warned that price MUST rally above the support level near $6986 in order for any future upside advance to take hold. The following week, we saw a massive price rally that lasted only a few hours and trailed off back below the $6986 support level. While we waited to see if any future price move would prompt a rally above this level, the Bitcoin price levels continued to congest.
The breakdown move over the past two weeks has been massive and hit our first target of $4000 as expected. From the recent highs, the downside move totals -52.81% so far. Our research team believes true support is near $2995 – a further -25% lower from current levels. This equates to a massive -65.85% decline in the past 40+ days.
There may be an opportunity for fresh long trades near the end of this year. We’ll alert you to any opportunities we see in the crypto-currencies as they set up. Right now, we would warn Crypto longs and enthusiasts to be very cautious of any further breakdowns in price. If the $2995 level does not hold as support, we could very easily the $1860 level before the end of January 2019.
Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about how we can help you find and execute better trades. Our research team and proprietary price modeling systems continue to deliver success for our clients and members. We target selected sectors and trades for our members and deliver daily video analysis of most of the major markets to help our members stay ahead of market moves. Learn how we can help you find greater success in 2019 and beyond.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/BTC_Crash_Fs.png391700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-25 14:54:572018-11-25 14:54:57Bitcoin Crashes Over 50% From Recent Highs
As we continue to explore our custom research into the metals markets and our presumption that the metals markets are poised for a massive price rally over the next few months/years, we pick up this second part of our multi-part article illustrating our research work and conclusions. If you missed the first part of this article, please take a minute to review it by before continuing further (Link to Part I).
We left off in Part I showing a number of supply and demand components and briefly highlighting our newest research using a custom Gold/Silver/US Dollar ratio index. Our attempt at finding anything new that could help us determine the future outcome of the metals markets and to either support or deny our future expectations that the metals markets are poised for a massive price advance was at stake. This new research would either help to confirm our analysis or completely blow it out of the water with new data. Let’s continue where we left off and start by showing even more data related to our new custom metals ratio.
This Monthly chart showing our custom gold pricing ratio and the correlative price of Gold illustrates a number of key features. If you remember from Part I, the current ratio level (the Blue Area chart) is near the top of the Upper Boundary level (0.80 or higher). Whenever the ratio level enters this Upper Boundary level, it typically only stays there briefly before falling towards the Lower Boundary level. We’ve highlighted what we believe to be key elements of this type of ratio/price reaction. On the chart, below, we’ve highlighted every major ratio level decline from near the Upper Boundary level and the associated reaction to the price of Gold as well as the indicator reaction near the bottom of the chart. With each instance, we can clearly see that price advanced, in some cases dramatically, as the ratio level declined from the Upper Boundary towards the Lower Boundary. The biggest move occurred between 2002 and 2012 where two of these ratio rotations occurred.
Near the right edge of this chart, we can see that the ratio levels have already started to decline from recent peaks. We believe this could this be the start of a broader ratio level decrease that prompts a massive price rally in the metals markets. We believe this ratio swing could be accelerated by rotation and volatility within the US Dollar price and increased demand from Investors over the next 4~6 months.
Again, this Monthly chart paints a very big picture – planning many years in advance of this move. We believe this new metals market rally is setting up to be something that Gold traders have been thinking about for decades – a potential of Gold reaching $5000 or higher in a dramatic price rally that correlates with broader global market events. We don’t know what those events are at the moment, but we could certainly guess as to the nature of their origination.
Our research supports our opinion that the metals markets are dramatically underpriced in relation to global risk and potential future events. The only thing, in our opinion, that could prevent a new price rally from forming over the next 6+ months is a continued malaise in investor sentiment or continued strength in the US Dollar. If either of these two components continues for any length of time, the price of Gold and our custom ratio will likely continue to base near current levels or slightly lower.
Our expectation is that currency issues as well as rotation or some weakness in the US Dollar will likely prompt an impulse rally in Gold where prices rally above $1300 before April 2019 and form a price base for the rest of the expected rally. Once the conditions ripen within the market and investors begin to pile into the long gold trade, the ratio will reflect this move and demand from the investor side will drive prices higher with the expectation that some type of crisis event cycle is about to unfold.
This next Monthly Gold chart shows what we believe will be the initial impulse move higher (towards and above $1300) before the rally really starts to gain speed. A rotation above $1300 would establish a new price base near or above recent highs and start the accumulation by Investors – driving the demand side of the equation. This move would also push the ratio a bit lower in support of our expectations.
This Monthly Silver chart clearly shows the extended opportunity for skilled investors ahead of this move. We believe Silver is one of the most undervalued investments on the planet right now and that our analysis supports a longer-term view that Silver could reach the $40 to $50 level very quickly if the events we suspect are unfolding actually do unfold as we are suggesting. This would equate to a 280%+ swing in price before an even bigger move higher unfolds.
This Monthly Platinum chart shows the pricing pressures over the past 5+ years that have plagued the metals markets. If you were to take a look at the custom metals ratio chart near the top of this article, you would see that this pricing pressure is related to a number of key factors – most of which relate to lack of investor demand and lack of true price exploration (rotation of the ratio levels). In other words, price levels in the metals markets have been operating in a very narrow “void” or any real price rotation or exploration. We believe this environment is about to end and we believe the continued “price malaise” will end with a massive impulse move higher.
You can see from this chart we expect Platinum to rally to near $1150~1200 in the initial impulse move, then form a base before a further price advance.
In conclusion, if our longer-term analysis is correct and prices do begin to move higher with a shift in Investor sentiment and a renewed pricing advance supported by US Dollar or foreign currency weakness, our researchers believe $2456 and $3016 levels in Gold could become prime upside price targets. To put that in relative terms, this would be a 200% to 246% price advance in Gold. One could expect Silver to advance to near $40 and $50 which would be a 278% to 348% price advance. Depending on the scope and scale of the event cycle that unfolds, these levels could be considered conservative targets for upward price moves.
Please keep in mind that this research post is very long-term in scope and expectations. This is not going to happen next week or even over a few weeks. This is going to be years in the making and it could change how you adapt your investment styles over the next few years. Our efforts to bring this advanced research to you is our attempt to alert you to a pattern that is unfolding in the metals markets that could provide you with a huge opportunity for future success. Once this pattern starts to unfold further, expect the global stock markets to start reacting to this new “fear element” and prepare to adjust your trading styles accordingly.
We believe you won’t find a better team of researchers, traders and analysts than with www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. Our proprietary research, price modeling systems, and predictive analysis tools help to keep our members well ahead of the market with each turn.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/chart4.png453700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-24 13:23:442018-11-24 13:25:01Metals Moving In Unison For A Massive Price Advance: Part II
Are the metals markets ending a price correction in unison and preparing for a massive price advance? This is the question we asked our research team to investigate and their findings may help skilled traders identify great opportunities in the future. This multi-part research article will share our most recent opinion about the metals markets as well as share some critical new data that can shed some light into what we believe will become a massive upside price rally in the metals markets. Let’s get into the data.
When one considers the global demand for Gold as a hedge against economic crisis events and the continued advancement in gold reserves for China and Russia, one has to consider the supply side issues that are a result of central banks global demand. Even though global production of Gold is near an all-time high, the demand from foreign nations and central banks are also near all-time highs. This correlation creates a demand-side consumption that offsets supply and, in some ways limits, consumer, retail and technology suppliers.
Our researchers focused on this aspect of the supply/demand equation when trying to analyze recent metals price action in correlation to disruptions that could occur in the markets. For example, increased central bank buying/hoarding of gold could dramatically result in prices spiking. Foreign market disruptions in supply could also send prices spiking. Global conflicts and or continued trade issues could send metals prices skyrocketing. Anything to do with the supply side for Gold could send prices higher. At least this is the conclusion of our research team at this time.
Russia has continued to build its gold reserves throughout the past 10+ years. Should Russia and other nations continue to absorb supply at these levels, one could easily argue that price declines in the metals markets are unusual.
Demand for gold is varied and includes Jewelry, Technology, Investment, and Central Banks. We can see from this data that Jewelry and Investment make up nearly 65~70% of total demand every quarter. Jewelry, in many nations, is a secondary form of investment for many people. Unlike in the US, gold is typically sold at 22K levels in much of Asia and at 24K levels throughout much of the Arab world. Individuals can purchase these high-quality jewelry items not only to wear but also as a capital investment. People in these countries are able to resell this high-quality gold to jewelers and others at near spot price whenever they need extra cash.
We can see from the chart, below, that demand is moderately weaker over the past 2 years, but still near all-time highs. Consider, for a moment, what a moderate supply-side disruption or pricing advance would do to the demand side of these levels?
Take a look at the increase in Investment demand in 2010 through 2012 in relation to today. Also, pay attention to the huge Investment increase in demand in Q1 of 2016 and the correlative price advance that occurred as demand shot higher. One key factor for price advance is that Investment demand increases dramatically as a driving force for price increases. Because of this, we would watch for investment demand to increase dramatically over the next 4~6+ months which would indicate that a continued price advancement is expected.
Our researchers dug further into price history with a dynamic new tool that allows us to measure and gauge price rotation in comparison to a number of key factors. The purpose of this exercise was to identify the price and relationship boundaries of Gold, Silver and the US Dollar as these price variances correlate to the price advance and decline of Gold. Our hope was that we would identify some very important new aspect to the relationships of these markets as related to the future movement of the metals markets. Our researchers focused on these key relationship and found the following.
This first chart highlighting our custom Gold/Silver/US Dollar ratio (the blue area chart) in comparison to the historical price of Gold is actually very interesting. First, we highlighted the general trend direction of the US Dollar – showing Strengthening, Weakening and Rotating trends. Next, we highlighted the Upper and Lower boundaries of our custom price ratio to highlight key areas where the ratio changed direction or where prices initiated new or reversed price trends. It is fairly easy to see the price of Gold either initiated new trends or changed price trend at or near these Upper and Lower boundary levels. It is also fairly easy to see the huge price advancement between 2004 and 2011 occurred within a Weak and Rotating US Dollar environment. Additionally, within this same time span, we were able to witness multiple boundary rotations and different Gold price activity types as the US Dollar shifted from a downward price trend to a very volatile/rotating price trend (2009~2015).
In all reality, the biggest Gold price rally and decline happened between 2009~2015 at a time when the US Dollar was rotating and at a time when the global markets were experiencing a massive credit/market event; including much of the subsequent market recovery event. The massive ratio trough occurred in April 2011; at a time when the US Dollar reached a fresh new low and when the US stock markets were recovering quite well.
Taking a look at the most recent 4~5 years on this chart, two critical items came to our attention; first, the lows reached in 2015 and the recent lows in 2018 both occurred while the custom ratio levels were within the Upper Boundary area. We have not seen the ratio move into the Lower Boundary since 2011. What causes the ratio to move toward this level and what are the correlations that we can ascertain from further research using this new tool? Could this new tool provide any real insight into the future price of Gold, Silver, and other metals?
We’ll continue our research in the second part of this article to show you why we believe the metals markets are set for a massive price rally and why we believe this one will be completely different than anything we’ve seen in the past 20 years.
We believe you won’t find a better team of researchers, traders and analysts than with www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. Our proprietary research, price modeling systems, and predictive analysis tools help to keep our members well ahead of the market with each turn.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3.png365700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-19 12:51:152018-11-19 12:51:15Metals Moving In Unison For A Massive Price Advance: Part I
An incredible really/breakout pattern is setting up in the US Stock Market and US Indexes currently that many traders/investors may not be paying attention to. This is such an incredible opportunity for traders, we are alerting you to this setup and what we expect to be the outcome based on our proprietary predictive price modeling and analysis tools.
Almost without fail, the end of each year experiences a “Christmas Rally” that results in a moderate bullish price bias for most of the 4th quarter. Over the past 17 years, 76.47% of each Q4 period resulted in an average +1049.85 pts in the YM (Dow Futures Contract). Only 23.59% of the time did the YM decline on an average of about -1039.75 pts. This data helps us to understand that downside price rotation in the Q4 (Christmas Rally months) is possible, but unlikely by a 4:1 ratio. It also helps us to understand that our expectations of a massive price rally, much greater than the average +1049 pts, may be a very big play for traders.
We wrote about our predictive modeling system’s expectations on September 17, 2018, https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-trading-model-suggests-falling-stock-prices-us-elections/, where we predicted a market top occurring near September 21, followed by a -5~8% price correction, followed by an Ultimate Bottom setup near or after November 8~12. This Ultimate Bottom setup was predicted by our ADL predictive price modeling tool and suggested a bottom in price would prompt a massive upside rally where new market highs will be reached in early 2019 or before. Our Fibonacci price modeling tool is now telling us the breakout move is imminent and we are alerting all our followers to be prepared for some incredible trading opportunities between now and Jan 1, 2019.
Let’s take a look at some Daily charts that support our conclusions and warn of downside risk levels. Within each of the two following charts, you will notice similarities. The markets are setting up in a similar pattern that clearly illustrates how price wants to react to a positive price impulse and where support is located. We believe any downside risk, at this time, would be from a dramatic external news event. In other words, we believe current support will hold and we believe the upside price bias predicted by our ADL price modeling system will become the ultimate outcome.
This first chart is a Daily YM chart showing our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system. Notice the upside and downside projected price targets on the right side of the chart. When these price targets are at wide disparities, as they are now, it usually indicates that the markets are setting up for a bigger breakout move. Additionally, it is easy to see the YELLOW Support Zone and the Key Price Support level on this chart. Based on Fibonacci Price Theory, the YM price trend is already Bullish and within a minor price pullback. As long as the Key Price Support level is not breached, the trend will stay Bullish.
Please pay special attention to the upside price targets near 27,500 to 28,500 (nearly 3000 pts higher). We believe the upside price trend predicted by our ADL price modeling system will support a price move up to near these levels before or shortly after Jan 1, 2019. We also believe any downside price risk will be contained with the BLUE Key Price Support level.
This next Daily chart is of the Transportation Index (TRAN). We are certain you will notice the similarities between the two charts and our Fibonacci Price Modeling System. The primary difference in this chart vs. the YM chart is where the Key Price Support level is located on the price axis of the chart. Overall, the prediction and technical components of these two charts are similar. As long as the Key Price Support level is holding, the upside price bias should drive an upward price breakout over the next few weeks and months.
As traders, we want to understand and identify where opportunities exist, when they become advantageous and when we need to act upon them. Our research team believes the next 5~14 days will present incredible opportunities for skilled traders to identify and setup new trades in certain sectors of the market based on this analysis and our predictions of new price highs within 2+ months.
We’ve seen a similar pattern play out back in March and April of 2018, just before the YM rallied 3400+ pts. If a similar price breakout occurs as we are suggesting, the 30,000 price level in the YM suddenly becomes a very valid price target.
If you like our analysis and research and want to know how we can help you find and execute better trades, please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. Our proprietary price modeling tools and our skilled team of traders and researchers attempt to bring you the very best and timely market research you can find. Take a minute to read our September 17th research post to understand just how incredible our research really is. Ask yourself this question, do you know of anyone else that can accurately predict stock market moves 4~6 months in advance? Take a few minutes to learn how we can help you navigate these incredible market opportunities and find new success.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/a.png440700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-18 22:20:402018-11-18 22:20:40Technical Analysis Points to DOW 30k Next Target
The recent upswing in NG prices has been an incredible trade for many, yet we believe a top is now forming in Natural Gas that could catch many traders by surprise. The recent upside gap in price and upward price volatility would normally not concern long traders. They would likely view this as a tremendous success for their long NG positions, yet we believe this move is about to come to a dramatic end – fairly quickly.
Our predictive price modeling systems are suggesting that Natural Gas may be setting up a topping pattern on weakness near our Fibonacci price target levels. As you can see from this Daily NG chart, the upside price gap recently has prompted a big upside price move that ended near our Fibonacci price target levels marked as “Resistance” on the right side of this chart. Normally, when the price reaches these levels, or near these levels, we expect price resistance to become a dominant factor. Additionally, we need to highlight the potential for the higher Fibonacci target, near $4.00-4.15, to be reached on an extended move higher. If this were to happen, we believe price would be strongly overextended and would likely rotate lower towards the $3.20 level rather quickly.
Support can be found near $2.60 to $2.80 on this chart and we believe the new highs, near $3.80, will likely extend the Fibonacci support targets a bit lower as price rotates to form the top pattern we are expecting.
It is a bit too early to actually “call a top” in Natural Gas at the moment, but we believe we are very near to setting up and forming a top reversal pattern in NG and are alerting our followers and members to this setup before it happens. We believe a price top will continue to setup over the next week or so before a new downward price trend pushes prices back towards the $2.50 level where support will likely hold.
Historically, the month of November has shown a moderately positive outcome over the past 25 years (resulting in a +0.59 average upside bias with a nearly 52% probability ratio). As of right now, NG is +0.46 for the November 2018 – indicating very limited upside range still exists.
For the month of December, NG historically results in a negative outcome (resulting in a -$2.61 average downside price bias with a nearly 60% probability ratio). For the month of January, NG has shown a decidedly negative price outcome (resulting in a -$6.69 average downside price bias with a nearly 71% probability ratio). Obviously, assuming these 25-year price studies are correct and their probability factors continue to be accurate, the upside move in Natural Gas may be very near a top and traders need to be aware of the potential for a quick and dramatic price trend reversal.
If you believe this type of research and analysis can assist you in finding and executing better trades, take a few minutes to learn about our team of researchers and how we can help you stay ahead of these market moves – visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today. Our team of professional researchers and traders has been developing proprietary price modeling and analysis tools for decades and we believe we have some of the best predictive modeling systems on the planet. Watch how this move in NG plays out to see how well we can help you find better trades and visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to read more of our public research posts.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/ng2.png453700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-13 21:44:312018-11-13 21:44:31Is A Top Forming In Natural Gas?
We are pleased to bring this new analysis to everyone’s attention because we strongly believe the bears and the shorts are in for a wild ride throughout the rest of 2018. Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have gone over the chart using our advanced predictive and price modeling tools and we are going to show you why we believe the ES could rally +400 points or more before the end of 2018 – leaving the shorts/bears wishing they had read this research.
Before we get too carried away, we need to highlight one thing regarding the current price setup we are illustrating with these charts. A “Price Anomaly” has setup because of this deep October 2018 price correction. This move has resulted in many industry researchers calling for further downside price action as they fear the beginning of a far deeper price decline in the future. We believe this conclusion is absolutely false. The price anomaly is the result of effective price rotation within volatility ranges that are acceptable to continue the current upward/bullish price trend and our modeling/research applications are suggesting we are about to see a +400 point rally in the ES (+11% or more; likely targeting 3100 or higher).
Let’s get into the charts and the data.
First, our TT Charger price modeling tool on an ES Weekly chart shows how volatility and price work hand-in-hand to create acceptable ranges of price rotation while still maintaining price trends. At this point, on the hard right edge of the chart, we can see the Oct 2018 deep price rotation fell to near our support levels (near 2650 & 2588) before rebounding higher over the past two weeks. Within this type of Price Anomaly setup, it is not uncommon for the price to “over-shoot” the targets before rebounding back towards the target levels.
This chart showing out Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system highlights the “Price Anomaly” event as well as highlights the upside price ranges/targets that we are expecting to play out over the next few months. Please pay special attention to the Aug/Sept 2018 price targets below 2600 that represent the Price Anomaly. When our predictive modeling systems identify outliers like this, it usually means there is a potential for a price anomaly event to occur. We call it a price anomaly event because the price may rotate and target these outlier areas in a broader price trend (in this case higher). This type of setup creates an incredible opportunity for skilled traders to trade the reversion price trend, higher in this case, after the price anomaly event is completed.
As you can see from this chart, we are expecting the price to recover quickly to near 2900 with a strong potential for higher prices in early 2019.
Before we continue, we want to share some data that supports our research and to alert you as to why we believe this upside price move could be dramatic and very profitable for skilled traders. One of the tools we use is a Probability Factoring Model while helps us understand what to expect in future price periods (Weeks, Months, Quarters). This tool helps us to understand if there is a predominant bias in price over a certain period of time or not. For example, it identified that October and November are typically very weak for Crude Oil and alerted us to the potential of falling oil prices in late September 2018. Right now, these are the results for November and December 2018.
– Total Monthly NEG : -121.5 across 4 bars – Avg = -30.38
– Total Monthly POS : 542.25 across 17 bars – Avg = 31.90
By reviewing this analysis, we can see that for the month of November 2018, the bias is clearly positive (17 bars positive vs. 5 negative; 3:1 ratio) and the upside price activity clearly outperforms the downside price activity (+751.25 vs. -266.50). Resulting in a +484.75 upside bias result. For December 2018, the results are equally impressive. A 4:1 upside bias ratio with a +420.75 upside bias result.
Please keep in mind that these results DO NOT mean the ES is going to climb 900 points between now and the end of the year. What we can pull from these results is that there is a clear upside price bias for both months and that we should expect, roughly, at least 50% of this pricing bias to materialize. This means about 200~220 points in November and about 180~200 points in December – totaling about 400+ points overall. Anything beyond that would be considered an extended price move higher based on this research.
Additionally, we would like to disclose that these analysis tools do not guarantee anything in terms of future price activity. We can’t attempt to guarantee any future price moves or activity based on our research. We simply attempt to use our proprietary tools to assist our members and followers in an attempt to stay ahead of these market moves so we can profit from them.
It is our opinion that the markets are poised for an incredible upside price advance from the correlative and combined research presented by our proprietary price modeling and adaptive learning systems. It is hard to argue the facts that the price anomaly predicted this downside price rotation when we called this move on September 17th (nearly 45 days before it actually happened). At that time, we called for an “ultimate price bottom” to occur between November 8 and November 12. After that, we expected the markets to rally into the end of 2018 and well into 2019. You can read all of our public research by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/.
Our members are kept aware of these trends, rotations, cycles, rotations, and setups every day with our Daily videos and other research posts. Additionally, we issue very clear trade alerts to our members so they can take advantage of timely trading signals for profits. Get ready for an incredible end to 2018 and a fantastic 2019 by joining our other members in creating greater success at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Chart_18-11-11_ES_TTCharger_W.png453700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2018-11-13 07:49:172018-11-13 07:49:172018 Could End With A Dramatic Price Rally
