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Long or Short Stocks is the Question: I’ve Got the Answer!

Stocks managed their third session higher as of Thursday June 27th and its too late to jump onto that move. Major indexes and leading stocks have rebounded into resistance along with a few key moving averages. The next 1-3 days favor a pause or pullback at the least simply because of the selling momentum and multiple resistance levels being tested. It is only natural for traders and investors to pull some money off the table or short at these levels.

Stepping back seven days and looking at the overall stock market we have seen a substantial drop in prices across the board. A Ton of stocks have formed their first impulse thrust to the downside which is typically what happens when a stock market is in a topping process (Stage 3 Distribution). The type of damage we had cannot be fixed overnight. This will be a process if it is to resolve to the upside and price action will remain wild (volatile).

The odds from a technical analysis stand point using Price, Momentum, Cycles, Volume and Moving Averages point to lower prices still to come. Actually they point to another 5% drop from the current level.

Major Points to Be Aware Of:

1. 20 Simple Moving Average is crossing below the 50SMA. Last time this took place it triggered a 5% drop in the SP500.

2. Price has bounced for three consecutive days. This typically puts the odds in favor for a pullback.

3. Price bounced and hit it’s head on the 20 and 50 moving averages on Thursday (RESISTANCE).

4. Market Time Cycles are in a decline phase meaning there will be a negative bias and seller will be actively pulling price lower on bounces.

5. Major Long Term Chart looks favorable for a bear market to start which may last 12 months. If so this is just the beginning of some scary yet highly profitable potential trades in the coming year. Stocks fall 3-7 times faster than they rise…

 

Daily SP500 Trend & Analysis Chart:

spydaily

 

Long Term SP500 Trend Chart:

spymonthly

 

BEARISH SP500 Price & Volume – 60 Minute Intraday Chart:

spyintraday

 

Looking at these charts from a long term, intermediate and short term basis the odds are favoring lower prices. Being short stocks or buying inverse ETF’s is the current play for the market. But analysis and trends are subject to change depending on price and volume action each week. Do not get your heart set on the BIG picture outlook of a yearlong selloff. That could prove to be dangerous. We take this market one bar or candlestick at a time and trade based on current short term analysis.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Precious Metals Life Cycle Nears an End – Final Stage of Denial

The life cycle of most things not matter what it is (living, product, service, ideas etc…) go through four stages and the stock market is no different. Those who recently gave in and bought gold, silver, mining stocks, coins will be enter this stage of the market in complete denial. They still think this is a pullback and a recover should be just around the corner.

Well the good news is a recovery bounce should be nearing, but if technical analysis, market sentiment and the stages theory are correct then a bounce is all it will be followed by years of lower prices and dormancy.

I really do hate to be a mega bear or mega bull on anything long term but the charts have painted a clear picture this year for precious metals and I want to share what I see. Take a look at the chart below which shows a typical investment life cycle using the four stage theory.

The Four Stages Theory

Classic economic theory dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Decline.  Stock, index or commodities are no different, and proceeds through the following cycle:

  • Stage 1 – Accumulation: After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers.  Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate.
  • Stage 2 – Markup: Upon gaining control of price movement buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows.  A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher.  Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in stock price.
  • Stage 3 – Distribution: After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in.  This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in stock price.
  • Stage 4 – Decline: When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers.  A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters a bear market.  A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side, taking advantage of the often quick decline in share price.

Stages1

 

Gold Price Weekly Chart – Stages Overlaid

gold11

 

Silver Price Weekly Chart – Stages Overlaid

silver11

 

Gold Mining Stocks – Monthly Chart

This chart is a longer term picture using the monthly chart. I wanted to show you the 2008 panic selling washout bottom in miners which I think is about to happen again. While physical gold and silver are in a bear market and should be some a long time, gold mining stocks will likely find support and possibly have a strong rally in the coming months.

Many gold stocks pay high dividends and are wanted by large institutions and funds. The lower prices go the higher the yield is making them more attractive. So I figure gold miners will bottom before physical metals do. A bounce is nearing but at this point selling pressure and momentum continue to plague the entire PM sector.

gdx11

 

Precious Metals Investing Conclusion:

In short, I feel with Quantitative Easing (QE) likely to be trimmed back later this year, and with economic numbers slowly improving along with solid corporate earnings the need or panic to buy gold or silver is diminishing around the globe.

While there are still major issues and concerns internationally they do not seem to have any affect on precious metals this year. Long terms trends like the weekly and monthly charts shown in this report tends to lead news/growth/lack of growth by several months. So lower precious metals prices may be telling us something very positive.

The precious metals sector is likely to put in a strong bounce this summer but after sellers will likely regain control to pull prices much lower yet.

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Chris Vermeulen

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The Pomo Push Saved the Uptrend Again!

I have previously written Fed/POMO and I have to do mention it again.  Yesterday morning I mentioned that if this trend is to remain up big money needs to be stepping into the market to lift stocks and save the trend. Luckily for the market and Ben Bernanke, there was a huge POMO day scheduled for yesterday where the Fed could buy up to $3,500,000,000 of securities.

POMO

That massive QE buying pressure (POMO – Permanent Open Market Operations) I’m sure helped lift the market. Look at my simple yet effective technical traders analysis chart of SP500 Futures below.

Friday

The Fed’s massive securities purchases likely helped to trigger a strong short-covering push into the closing bell.  Remember, the prior day the indices had been hammered as short sellers drove the markets lower. When the shorts are forced to cover their positions, they do so by buying.  When strong enough, this produces strong waves of buying.

Remember not to be bias in your outlook on the market, but follow the trend, money and momentum and you should be on the correct side of the market more times than not.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

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Tis the Season to Look At Gold & Oil Prices!

The two most popular investments a few years ago have been dormant and out of the spot light. But from looking at the price of both gold and oil charts their time to shine may be closer than one may thing.

Seasonal charts allow us to look at what the average price for an investment does during a specific time of the year. The gold and oil seasonal charts below clearly show that we are entering a time which price tends to drift higher.

While these chart help with the overall bias of the market keep in mind they are not great at timing moves and should always be coupled with the daily and weekly underlying commodity charts.

Now, let’s take a quick look at what the god father of technical/market analysis shows in terms of market cycles and where I feel we are trading… As I mentioned last week, a picture says a thousand words so why write when I can show it visually.

 

John Murphy’s Business Cycle:

JMCycle

Mature Stock Market:

cycletop

Commodity Index Looks Bullish and Should Rise:

GCC

Gold & Silver Seasonality, Price Charts w/ Analysis:

 Precious Metals like gold and silver are nearing a bounce and possible major rally in the second half of this year.

GoldSeason

cycletop GCC GoldSeason i2y8euv0

 

 

Crude Oil Seasonality, Price Chart w/ Analysis:

Crude oil has been a tough one to trade in the last year. The recent 15 candles have formed a bullish pattern and with the next few months on the seasonal chart favoring higher prices it has been leaning towards the bullish side.

OilSeason

oil1

 

 

Commodity, Gold & Oil Cycle and Seasonality Conclusion:

In short, I feel the equities market is nearing a significant top in the next couple weeks. If this is the case money will soon start flowing into commodities in general as more of the safe haven play. To support this outlook I am also factoring in a falling US dollar. Based on the weekly dollar index chart it looks as though a sharp drop in value is beginning. This will naturally lift the price of commodities especially gold and silver.

It is very important to remember that once a full blown bear market is in place stocks and commodities including gold and silver will fall together. I feel we are beginning to enter a time with precious metals will climb but it may not be as much as you think before selling takes control again.

Final thought, This could be VERY bullish for the Canadian Stock Market (Toronto Stock Exchange) as it is a commodity rich index. While the US may have a pullback or crash Canadian stocks may hold up better in terms of percentage points.

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Chris Vermeulen

Tech Giants Build Major Basing Pattern Again – AAPL, GOOG, YHOO, BBRY, XLK

How to trade technology stocks or the technology sector moving forward may not be that complicated. This report shows you where the big technology stocks are likely to go in the coming week or two. This is based strictly on technical analysis not fundamentals as fundamentals typically lag the market drastically.

If you have been following my analysis for some time you will recall the detailed report on AAPL and RIMM shares last year when I called the top in Apple shares and the bottom for RIMM (BBRY). In that report I walked you through the stages which stocks go through and where each of these stocks were trading at then. Be sure to review the charts quickly here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/collapse-of-apple-rise-of-the-blackberries-stock-market-cycle/

In this week’s report I talk about the technology sector in more detail using the tech giants like Apple, Google, Yahoo, BBRY, and the XLK tech sector exchange traded fund. A picture says a thousand words so here are a few thousand words in picture format with my analysis and thinking as of this week.

Keep in mind that the market changes each day so forecasts and outlooks can flip within a couple days so nothing is set in stone and subject to change.

YAHOO – Daily Chart

Yahoo is in an uptrend with strong share accumulation. It continues to form bullish price patterns and points to higher prices in the coming week.

yhoo1

Research In-Motion/Back Berry WEEKLY Chart:

This is a weekly chart so things move much slower. But overall the pattern on BBRY is very bullish and if the broad market does not start a correction this stock price should test $30 per share this summer.

BBRY1

 

Apple Daily Chart:

Apple topped out months ago but is now starting to look ready for a bounce. It is forming a possible stage 1 base, and an inverse head & Shoulders pattern. Both point to higher prices and a gap window fill which is the next higher volume resistance zone.

aapl1

 

XLK – Technology Sector Exchange Traded Fund

While I like the potential of individual stocks you are subject to individual news etc… which is a little to risky for my blood but my trading partner specializes in this type of trading and has been making a killing this year with his subscribers at www.ActiveTradingPartners.com. The more conservative trader can focus on a basket of technology stocks using the XLK ETF which shows higher prices in the next week or two also.

Another way to play this is through options which is technically the least risky trading strategy there is when done correctly. You can see from these results options are VERY powerful – Options Trading

xlk1

 

Technology Trading Conclusion:

In short, I like how the technology sector is looking for a continued move higher. Keep in mind the report I did a week ago talking about the intermediate cycle topping out for the SP500 soon. Stocks may just reach their recent highs then roll over in a big way. So any gains should be protected with partial profit taking and a protective stop.

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Chris Vermeulen

This Weeks Stock Market Reversals Explained

This week has played out perfectly thus far. The expected volatility of intraday price swings and lower prices for stocks has happened. The Vix has collapsed the 15% which I mentioned would happen just 2 days ago and money is flowing out of precious metals and miners today in a big way as that risk off money is now moving into Risk-On Stocks.

My partner who focuses exclusively on Small Cap Stocks and 3X Leveraged ETF’s have been cleaning up this week also. Take a look at how he How We Nailed The Market Low for 4.6% in 24 hours

I just want to mention that all markets are connected (intermarket analysis) We are long the SP500 which is how I want to play this move because it carries the least amount of risk and volatility then other investments. That being said a trade could instead short gold or short the vix. Many ways to play moves like this in the market. One thing to remember though is that each of these moves are the same trade. so buying a position in each is just multiplying your exposure and if this bottom in stocks didn’t take place you would get your head handed to you on a silver platter. Again I am here for market guidance and to share low risk setups as I see fit. You can trade all you want around analysis as many of you do on your own.

Charts Show it all in Detail below:

SPYOverbought

vix

gold2

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Chris Vermeulen

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Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners Signals

It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.

Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.

While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.

Weekly Price of Gold Futures:

Gold has been under heavy selling pressure this year and it still may not be over. The technical patterns on the chart show continued weakness down to the $1300USD per once which would cleanse the market of remaining long positions before price rockets towards $1600+ per ounce.

There is a second major support zone drawn on the chart which is a worst case scenario. But this would likely on happen if US equities start another major leg higher and rally through the summer.

PriceOfGold

 

Weekly Price of Silver Futures:

Silver is a little different than gold in terms of where it stands from a technical analysis point of view. The recent 10% dip in price which shows on the chart as a long lower candle stick wick took place on very light volume. This to me shows the majority of weak positions have been shaken out of silver. Gold has not done this yet and it typically happens before a bottom is put in.

While I figure gold will make one more minor new low, silver I feel will drift sideways to lower during until gold works the bugs out of the chart.

PriceOfSilver

 

Silver Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart:

Silver miners are oversold and trading at both horizontal support and its down support trendline. Volume remains light meaning traders and investors are not that interested in them down where and it should just be a matter of time (weeks/months) before they build a basing pattern and start to rally.

SilverMiningStocksETF

 

Gold Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart:

Gold mining stocks continue to be sold by investors with volume rising and price falls. Fear remains in control but that may not last much longer.

GOldMiningStocksETF

Gold Junior Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart:

Gold junior miners are in the same boat with the big boys. Overall gold and gold miners are still being sold while silver and silver stocks are firming up.

GoldJuniorMiningStocksETF

 

Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:

In the coming weeks we should see the broad stock market top out and for gold miners along with precious metals bottom. There are some decent gains to be had in this sector for the second half of the year but it will remain very dicey at best.

If selling in the broad market becomes intense and triggers a full blown bear market money will be pulled out of most investments as cash is king. Gold is likely to hold up the best in terms of percentage points but mining stocks will get sucked down along with all other stocks for a period of time. This scenario is not likely to be of any issue for a few months yet but it’s something to remember.

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Chris Vermeulen

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US Stock Market Foreshadows Another Rally – True Story!

Over the past couple week’s investors and traders have been growing increasingly bearish for the US stock market. While I too also feel this rally is getting long in the teeth there is no reason to exit long positions and start shorting.

My followers know I do not pick tops and I do not pick bottoms. This I explained in great detail in my previous report. There are more cons to that tactic and on several different levels (timing, volatility, emotions, lack of experience, addiction) than there are pro’s.

Keeping things simple, short and to the point here is my thinking for today and this week on the broad market. Remember my analysis is 100% technical based using price, volume, cycles, volatility, momentum and sentiment. I try not to let any emotions, gut feel, or bias flow into my projections. I say “TRY” because I am only human and at times when the market and emotions are flying high they still take control of me but that is few and far between.

So let’s get to the charts shall we!

SP500 Index Trading Daily Chart – SPY Exchange Traded Fund

The SP500 index continues to hold up within its rising trend channel and the recent pullback is bullish. Remember the trend is your friend and it can continue for very long periods of times ranging from days, weeks, and even months…

SP500Uptrend

 

The US Stock Market MUSCLE Indexes

The charts below show and explain my thinking… But in short we need these two indexes to be strong if we want to see another major leg higher in the SPY, or to at least test the recent highs.

Today the market opened slightly higher and push up in the first 30 minutes with strong volume. Overall the market looks as though it needs a day pause/pullback before taking another run higher.

Small cap stocks are the ULTIMATE Risk On play and generate ridiculous gains in very short periods of time. I focus on these with my trading partner exclusively at ActiveTradingPartners.com where we have been making a killing on trades like: NUGT up 21% in 1 day and IOC up 11% in 2 days
USLeaders

 

Bullish Index Price, Volume & Candles

The SP500 has been very predictable the past couple weeks for both intraday trading during key reversal times in the market when price has pullback to a support zone, and also for swing trading. Last week we myself and followers bought SSO ETF when the market pulled back and we exited the next day for a 3.5% profit.

Yesterday was a perfect intraday example with the SP500 bottoming out at my 11:30am morning reversal time zone with price trading at support. Price then rallied into the close posting a 12 point gain on the SP500 futures for a simple momentum play pocketing $600.

1130

 

US Stock Market Mid-Week Conclusion:

In short, I still like stocks as the place to be and will not get bearish until proven wrong. Once price reverses and the technical clearly paint a bearish picture with price, volume, momentum, cycles and sentiment will I start shorting the bounces.

This week is a pivotal one for the stock market so expect increased volatility and possibly lower lows still until the counter-trend flushes the weak position out before moving higher.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Seven Keys in Timing Stock Market Tops – Part II

Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self-confidence.

On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.

I recommend you read this special report now: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/how-to-spot-time-stock-market-tops/

That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.

Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also.

Mall Market Directory – You Are Here

Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.

Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.

U-R-Hear

Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage

It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.

Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.

So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.

Timing the Market Top Conclusion:

In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.

When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.

Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.

Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.

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Chris Vermeulen