Global investors continue to pile into the US Dollar making it the primary safe-haven trade. This may eventually trigger a broad and deep selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen, corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
The following chart by Finviz shows the percentage the USD has appreciated against all the major global currencies during the past month:
In the current market environment, it’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as necessary. Successful traders manage risk by utilizing stop-loss orders, rebalancing existing positions, reducing portfolio holdings, liquidating investments, and moving into cash.
USDJPY UP +13.29% VS S&P 500 -12.76%
The S&P 500 peaked on January 5, 2022, and after 3-months put in a lower top on March 29, 2022. In comparison, the US Dollar USD has gained steadily throughout 2022 as noted in the FX currency pairs USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD.
Interestingly we can see that as the USD is picking up steam to the upside simultaneously stocks are selling off. It appears that the money that is coming out of the equity markets is going into cash. But not just any cash but specifically into US dollars.
The global appetite for the US dollar and its subsequent rise can kill the stock market as US corporate profits dry up and everything the US consumer purchases in US dollars rise to levels that are no longer sustainable.
UNITED STATES DOLLAR • GLOBAL COMPARISON • OANDA • DAILY
GBPUSD LOST -36.30% 2007-08
During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the British Pound vs the US Dollar GBPUSD lost -36.30% in 14-months. Translation: the USD gained +36.30 against the GBP!
The current drop in the GBPUSD has been roughly -13.00% over the last 8-months.
Potentially the GBPUSD could move down another -20% over the next 6-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +20% against the GBP!
GBPUSD • BRITISH POUND VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY
AUDUSD LOST -39.20% 2007-08
During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, the Australian Dollar vs the US Dollar AUDUSD lost -39.20% in just 4-months. Translation: the USD gained +39.20 against the AUD!
The current drop in the AUDUSD has been roughly -8.42% over the last 1-month.
Potentially the AUDUSD could move down another -30% over the next 3-months or longer if the downturn lasts for an extended period. Translation: the USD has the potential to gain an additional +30% against the AUD!
AUDUSD • AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR • FXCM • MONTHLY
DISCOVER HOW TO MANAGE DRAWDOWNS
Drawdowns are critical as the larger the loss the more difficult it is to make up. A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover, however, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover, and a 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even.
Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover. Depending on a trader’s age they may not have the time to wait on the recovery nor the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it’s critical to keep their drawdowns within reason as most of them learned this principle the hard way!
Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop-loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Our core objective is to protect our valuable capital while identifying suitable risk vs reward opportunities for profits in new and emerging trends.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-03_18-46-27.jpg6761059adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-05-11 09:03:412022-05-11 09:03:44Is The US Dollar The Global Safe-Haven?
In today’s trader tip video, Chris talks about the current stock market volatility, the US dollar ETF UUP, the natural gas ETF UNG, and his current cash position. In these volatile times, the best position to be in is cash. We closed out 7 winnings trades a few weeks ago and we are currently in cash, watching the market slide and test the lows.
Overall, we are very close to the market flipping into a bear market. At that point, it is a game-changer and trading strategies must change. Are you ready to catch the downward trends?
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT UUP, UNG, and cash position – WATCH THE VIDEO
Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!
Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!
TO EXPLORE THE Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The technical traders. You’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Trader-Tip-1.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-05-11 08:59:292022-05-11 08:59:34US Dollar, Natural Gas ETF – UUP, UNG, Cash – Trader Tip Video
Market volatility remains elevated and may be setting the stage for spikes even higher than we have already experienced.
Global money is continuing to flow into the US Dollar making it one of the primary safe-haven trades. This may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
It’s imperative to assess your trading plan, portfolio holdings, and cash resources. Experienced traders know what their downside risk is and adapt as needed to the current market environment.
If you still have money invested in Amazon, Netflix, PayPal, or one of the many other stocks that are sinking fast there is no easy way out. Your options are:
Hold tight and “hope” for a rally to recover part of your money.
Reduce some of your position to “limit your downside” in case the bottom really falls out, and then sell the balance after a bounce of 5-8%.
Move to cash, “bite the bullet”, get a good night’s sleep, take a break, reassess, and live to come back and trade another day.
NASDAQ ENTERS BEAR MARKET TERRITORY
The NASDAQ peaked at around 3.1618% of its Covid 2020 high-low range the week of November 21, 2021.
THEN – the QQQ ETF’s first swing down was -21% over a 16-week period (4 months).
THEN – a brief 3-week rally, retraced around 61.8%.
THEN – resumed its downtrend by taking out its previous low.
THEREFORE – according to the -20% Bear Market Rule: QQQ – 23.32% from its peak and -21.27% YTD is in a bear market.
QQQ • INVESCO QQQ ETF TRUST • NASDAQ • WEEKLY
AMAZON BREAKING DOWN -35%
Amazon AMZN peaked at around 3.1618% of its Covid 2020 high-low range the week of July 12, 2021.
THEN – AMZN made a double top the week of November 15, 2021.
THEN – the first swing down was -28.91% over a 16-week period (4 months).
THEN – after a brief 4-week rally, retraced a little more than 61.8% of its initial downswing.
THEN – resumed its downtrend by taking out its previous low.
THEREFORE – according to the -20% Bear Market Rule: AMZN -35.74% from its peak and -25.39% YTD is in a bear market.
AMZN • AMAZON.COM, INC. • NASDAQ • WEEKLY
NETFLIX PLUMMETS -72% IN 5 MONTHS
Netflix NFLX peaked at around 2.382% of its Covid 2020 high-low range the week of November 15, 2021.
THEN – NFLX’s first swing down was -17% over a 5-week period.
THEN – a brief 3-week rally, NFLX retraced only 25%.
THEN – the second swing down was -43% over a 4-week period.
THEN – only less than a 2-week rally retraced around 33%.
THEN – resumed its downtrend by taking out its previous low.
THEREFORE – according to the -20% Bear Market Rule: NFLX – 72% from its peak and -68.40% YTD is most definitely in a bear market.
NFLX • NETFLIX, INC. • NASDAQ • WEEKLY
PAYPAL DROPS -73% IN 9 MONTHS
PayPal PYPL peaked at around 5.1618% of its Covid 2020 high-low range the week of February 16, 2021.
THEN – PYPL put in a double top the week of July 26, 2021.
THEN – the first swing down was -14% over a 4-week period.
THEN – a brief 4-week rally, retraced about 61.8%.
THEN – the second swing down was -39% over a 14-week period (3.5 months).
THEN – a 6-week sideways rally retraced only around 10%.
THEN – resumed its downtrend by taking out its previous low.
THEREFORE – according to the -20% Bear Market Rule: PYPL – 73% from its peak and -53.39% YTD is most definitely in a bear market.
PYPL • PAYPAL HOLDINGS, INC. • NASDAQ • WEEKLY
DRAWDOWNS HAVE A CRITICAL IMPACT
We need to remember the larger the loss the more difficult it is to make up. A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover, however, a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover, and a 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply return to break even.
Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown. A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks or a few months while a 50% drawdown may take several years to recover. Depending on a trader’s age they may not have the time to wait on the recovery nor the patience. Therefore, successful traders know it’s critical to keep their drawdowns within reason as most of them this principle the hard way!
prepare yourself for Market Volatility
Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list. Our core objective is to protect our valuable capital while identifying suitable risk vs reward opportunities for profits in new and emerging trends.
As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop-loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets and asset classes as we track global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-05-01_07-56-17.jpg6841059adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-05-02 21:03:562022-05-02 21:04:01Market Volatility – Traders Must Adapt Or Risk Losing Their Shirts
Selling puts is a neutral to bullish strategy. Traders tend to overcomplicate things. This is especially true with options trading where puts and calls can be bought and sold in seemingly endless combinations with cute names like calendars, diagonals, butterflies, iron condors, ducks, lizards, and so on.
While more complicated strategies have their place, are they necessary to be a successful options trader? No, not at all. Quite often, simple strategies are all that are needed to make consistent profits.
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”. That ironically is a paraphrase of something Einstein said – or is at least attributed to him.
Selling Puts
Buying a put gives the holder the right to sell stock at the strike price to someone else, but only up to the time when the option expires. We might buy a put to have downside protection, i.e., “insurance”, against a decline in the price of a stock we own. We might also buy a put as pure speculation on a decline in price in the underlying. The price paid for a put is a sunk cost that can only be recovered if the put increases in value.
For every put buyer who is long a put, there is a put seller that is short a put. The put seller receives the price, or “premium”, paid for the put. In exchange for the premium received there is an obligation for the put seller to possibly buy shares at the strike price.
Two Simple Rules for Put Selling
Like the stock
Like it at the strike price
We should only sell puts on a stock that we would be willing to buy. If we’re willing to buy shares of a stock, why not sell puts on it and buy shares at a discount? Or perhaps just collect put premiums and never actually buy the shares?
We should only sell puts when we think the share price will go up, stay about the same, or if there is a drop it will be relatively small. Here is where Technical Analysis comes in to help us assess the outlook for a stock. We may be looking at an attractive stock that we wouldn’t mind owning, but just as with buying shares, we would only want to sell puts when we’re bullish on the stock at its current price.
Trade Management
There are a couple of possibilities for how to manage a short put trade.
If the underlying share price is above the strike price at expiration, we can simply let the put expire worthlessly. We get to keep the premium collected and our obligation to buy shares ends when the option expires.
If the underlying share price is below the strike price at expiration, we’ll be assigned and must buy shares. Keeping in mind the Two Simple Rules mentioned above, this is not necessarily a bad thing as we can:
keep the shares for appreciation and dividends (if there is a dividend).
sell the shares and be done with the position.
turn around and sell call options against our shares and continue to collect option premium and any dividends.
If the underlying is below the strike price before expiration, there is the possibility of early assignment – at least with American-style options. Some underlying, in particular cash-settled index products, have European-style options that are only exercisable at expiration.
If there is a significant time value left in the put option, an early exercise is unlikely. It would be better for the put holder to simply sell their option if they wanted to exit the position. Otherwise, they would be giving away the time value in the option. But if the time value is small, they may choose to exercise before expiration.
Rolling
As put option sellers, we are in the “business” of selling time value in exchange for taking on an obligation to buy shares at the strike price. If the time value is getting small in a put we sold, we can buy back that option and sell another one further out in time. We can almost always do that for a net credit because we’re selling more time value. Every additional credit we collect by rolling our option further out in time reduces our risk and potential cost basis.
For example, say a stock is trading at $25. We sell a $24 put for 30 days out and collect $1 of put premium. Since we might have to buy shares at $24, our initial risk in the trade is $24 – $1 = $23.
Note that we’re already better off than if we had simply bought the shares at $25.
But suppose the share price dips to $23 and we think we’re likely to get assigned on the put. We could wait for the assignment and buy the shares at $24. We could also buy back the put for a debit and sell one further out in time for a credit. As we are selling more time value than we’re buying back, we should be able to extend the duration on that position for a net credit.
Going back to our example where we sold the $24 put for $1, perhaps we’ve rolled that forward several times, collecting an additional $0.50 credit with every roll. After three rolls, our cost basis on the shares would be $24 – $1 – $0.50 – $0.50 – $0.50 = $21.50. Where we originally thought we liked the shares at $25, by selling puts instead of buying the shares we now own them with a 14% discounted cost basis of $21.50.
Conclusion
After many years of buying and selling options using a wide variety of strategies ranging from the simple to complex, I find that a simple strategy like selling puts can be one of the easiest to manage and most reliable for generating regular profits. Don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be!
Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.
Our Options Specialist, Brian Benson, has been on fire. During the last month, of the last 13 trades he has made, 11 of them have finished in the money!
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy your day!
Chris Vermeulen Founder & Chief Market Strategist TheTechnicalTraders.com
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Multi timeframe, as well as comparison analysis, have many benefits. As traders, we tend to utilize the shorter-term time frames to enter our trades and place our stops. But the BIG money is made from gleaning information from the longer-term charts. We would classify long term as monthly or weekly while short term would be a daily or 4-hour time frame.
Comparison analysis can be done by comparing different time periods or we can see how our market is trading vs another highly correlated market.
Since we have a lot of subscriber interest in stocks, we thought it might be time to compare the current chart of the SPY to the S&P 500 index during the 2002-2009 period. The S&P 500 weekly chart experienced a nice bull market with several buy points from 2002 up to 2007.
S&P’s 2007 top occurred at its 2.0 or 200% extension of its 2002 high vs low. Then about 5-months later sold off a little over -20%. After hitting the key -20% psychological end-of-bull-market area the S&P rallied for several weeks up to its 1.618 overhead resistance. Then after turning back down at the 1.618 the S&P lost approximately -50% of its value. The complete drop occurred over a 17–18-month period from peak to trough.
SPY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER -8% DOWN BEFORE STAGING A DEAD-CAT BOUNCE!
The SPY is down approximately -12 to -13% from its peak for 2022. It is feasible the SPY could fall another -8% or reach -20% before it stages some type of rally into late summer or early fall. If this scenario plays out, we should then prepare for what could be a significant drop or bear market in the 4th quarter of 2022 that could extend into 2023 and beyond.
The 2007 top of the S&P 500 index occurred at 2.0 or 200% of its previous major high-low swing low. The 2022 top for the SPY also occurred at 2.1618 or 200% of its Covid high-low swing low.
The potential exists for the SPY to pull back -20% from its peak before staging a temporary rally to a lower distribution top.
We are now seeing that major economies (US/UK/Japan) are not immune from global deleveraging and inflation. Investors have been seeking safety in the US Dollar and this may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. Part of what we do at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com is to distill price action into technical strategies and modeling systems. These assist us in understanding when opportunities exist in the US stock market and specific sector ETFs. Our core objective is to protect our valuable capital while identifying suitable risk vs reward opportunities for profits in new and emerging trends.
A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE – BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY
Around 1911, miners would carry canaries into coal mines to give them an advanced warning of danger. This phrase or analogy is also utilized by traders in the financial markets. Our canary or canaries would simply be a market or stock that might give us an indication that there is a problem with the overall market or that the global equity markets are shifting from a bull to a bear.
Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A (NYSE) founded and operated by famed Warren Buffet is a diversified holding company that owns subsidiaries that engage in insurance, freight rail transportation, energy generation, and distribution, services, manufacturing, retailing, banking, and others. It is a good candidate for “a canary in the coal mine”, in our case the stock market.
Berkshire is down approximately -9% from its 2022 peak but remains up +10% year-to-date. BRK’s stock price reached 200% as its shares traded above 2.618 and 2.666 for a few days before selling off. From its Covid low on March 23, 2020, to its 2022 high on March 29, 2022, BRK rallied 2 years and 6 days from trough to peak.
If BRK were to lose -20% from its peak or give back all its 2022 gain in the stock price we should prepare to sell the rally that follows if we have not done so already. Note: TTT subscribers are already safely in cash awaiting trade instructions for select alternative or inverted ETFs.
As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop-loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets and asset classes as we track global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-04-26_15-02-24.jpg6801264adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-05-02 16:49:382022-05-02 16:49:47Using Comparison Analysis For An Edge
Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders talks with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, about the recent price action of gold and the stock market. Looking at the daily charts of Gold, we can see gold has this big run-up when the news of war initially hit. Next, we saw gold pullback and sell-off. Since then, gold has stabilized and has flirted with both the resistance area of $2000 and the support area of $1890 indicating that it’s been trying to build a base and recover. The quarterly chart of gold remains very bullish.
Overall, we are in a bearish or distribution phase in the stock markets. Though some sectors are doing well, most stocks are going down creating a major divergence. We are in this phase where the market doesn’t know what it wants to do. The S&P 500 is below the 50-day moving average and crossing down below the 200-day moving average which is not a great sign. It is in this phase that the stock market is excellent at shaking people out. As panic rises, people get spooked, sell their positions, and the downtrend continues.
With all of this going on, The Technical Traders is in a full cash position. After an upside run of over a year, the long-term investment strategy, based on technical indicators, moved to cash about 6-7 weeks ago. The short-term swing trading strategy followed suit and closed out six winning trades in mid-April. Should we flip into a bear market, we will look into inverse ETFs to profit from the fall.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT GOLD PRICE ACTION -WATCH THE VIDEO
TO EXPLORE THE strategies in the Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The technical traders. You have MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/vvawi6e38uk-672x372-1.jpg372672adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-26 16:04:492022-04-26 16:04:53Will Gold Price Rebound If The Economy Is In A Recession – Video
We are now seeing that major economies (US/UK/Japan) are not immune from global deleveraging and inflation. As investors seek safety in the US Dollar this may eventually trigger a broader and deeper selloff in U.S. stocks and market volatility will begin to pick up as the VIXY moves up. As the USD continues to strengthen corporate profits for US multinationals will begin to disappear.
Especially in times like these, traders must understand where opportunities are and how to turn this knowledge into profits. Part of what we do at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com is to distill price action into technical strategies and modeling systems. These assist us in understanding when opportunities exist in the US stock market and specific sector ETFs. Our core objective is to protect capital while identifying suitable opportunities for profits in trends.
VOLATILITY MAY HAVE BOTTOMED SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TREND HIGHER
Volatility is beginning to pick up as we see the VIXY moving up strongly from its 6-month base.
Utilizing multiple time frame analysis and then focusing on the 4-hour chart we were able to capture the volatility low earlier than we would have by only using the daily, weekly, or monthly chart.
The US Dollar is continuing to appreciate as investors and central banks seek safety from geopolitical, inflation, and other market dislocations. The low in the USD was made on January 6, 2021.
1 YEAR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (USD) – WWW.FINVIZ.COM
UUP – INVESCO DB USD INDEX BULLISH FUND ETF: DAILY
STOCKS MEET RESISTANCE AND ARE SLIPPING AGAIN!
Stocks hit resistance the first week of 2022 after hitting a Fibonacci iteration of 2.1618. Less than two months later the SPY found support at yet another Fibonacci number of 1.618. These Fibonacci levels are based on the range calculation of the pre-Covid high and the Covid March 2020 low.
However, after rallying from the 1.618 level the SPY rolled over to the downside as it hit a 72-bar (12-day) Bollinger Band using a standard deviation setting of 1.618.
Now we will watch closely to see if the price will make a new low for 2022 which may confirm a shift in the overall trend in stocks.
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST: 4-HOUR
INVERSE ETFS OFFER AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRADITIONAL BUY AND HOLD
Astute traders who want to do more than liquidate part or all their stock holdings may want to consider investing in an inverted ETF. Inverted ETFs provide the ability to take advantage of a downturn in the stock market without the complexities of having to sell individual stocks short.
If our goal as a trader is to make money, we need to adapt and be as agile as necessary. This is one of the reasons why our team continually tracks global money flow according to each country’s stock index but additionally other types of markets and asset classes. Our quantitative trading research is crucial in determining which markets to trade and how to efficiently employ trading capital.
Since we reviewed the SPY uptrend and the potential for a change of trend to the downside; it’s only appropriate to view the opposite side of this trade by looking at the SH inverted ETF.
SH – PROSHARES SHORT S&P 500 ETF: 4-HOUR
UNDERSTANDING PRICE IS A GAME-CHANger
As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to subscribers. Recently, we entered new trades, all of which hit their first profit target levels and then eventually triggered their break-even profit stop loss orders on their remaining position. After booking our profits we are now safely in cash preparing for our next trades. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets and asset classes as we track global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Picture2.png374624adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-26 16:00:342022-04-26 16:00:44Combing Thru Data – Looking For Clues About Volatility, USD & Stocks
Introduction: 00:00 Welcome to the Technical Traders Podcast, the show that brings you technically proven strategies and trade ideas from experts around the world. We’re going to help you make more money with less risk so that you can take your trading to the next level. Now here’s your home host Jim Goddard.
Jim Goddard: 00:43 My guest is Mike Swanson, editor of WallStreetWindow.com. Mike, welcome to the Technical Traders Podcast.
Mike Swanson: 00:50 Oh, it’s great to talk with you. Thanks for having me on the show today.
Jim Goddard: 00:53 Mike, can you tell us just a little bit about WallStreetWindow.com?
Mike Swanson: 00:59 Yeah, sure. It’s a financial website. And typically, if you go to it, you’ll see a couple of blog posts. They’re not all written by me, but the real heart of it is the email list. There’s a subscribe button at the top, and every morning before the opening, I’ll send out an email with a link to my market thoughts and then also links to the top news stories of the day that I believe people need to know about if they want to watch their investments or trade the stock market. And I’ve been doing it for over 20 years now and trading and investing for well over 30. I’m starting to lose count.
Jim Goddard: 01:43 How did you get started in trading or investing?
Mike Swanson: 01:47 Well, I was a college student in graduate school for History, and I wasn’t sure if I wanted to continue in that as a career. And I just started this was in the late nineties when internet stocks were really hot, and there was an internet bubble, and everything was going up. I started to trade the internet stocks with $15,000 that I inherited actually. I didn’t know what I was doing and turned that into 60 and thought, I’ve to get out of college, and well, I’ll try to just trade for a year. And then I lost most of that money. It turned in about 15,000. From then, I had to learn what I was doing if I was going to keep doing it. I ran that up to about a hundred in 1999. So it was an interesting time, to say the least.
Jim Goddard: 02:48 Is there anybody you really admire or influenced you to become involved in the financial markets?
Mike Swanson: 02:55 Well, I would say that the experience I had starting out were I lost, you know, running up to 60 on just, I would say just luck and then over 12 months or so turned that 60 into 15,000. At that time, I knew I needed to learn what I was about how to do this. There was a book called market wizard by Jack Schwager, and I think it was written in the eighties, but it profiled several hedge fund managers and just winning traders investors that were famous at the time. I recall Jim Rogers was one of the people in there, and they all told a story that I was just living through. Where they started out, they got lucky, and then they lost most of their money or all of it. And they had to take it seriously and figure out a way to win.
Mike Swanson: 04:02 So that was really a message I needed to hear. And I would say the number one thing that inspired me to take this seriously and eventually do well at it, but actually a good documentary right now, I’d recommend people watch on HBO. I think it’s called Icon. But it’s about Carl Icon and profiles him. And interestingly enough, he tells a similar story in there where he started trying to trade in the early 1960s and wiped out and said; I’ve got to have an edge. I just can’t be doing everyone else is doing, you know, and he developed one for himself. And it’s not so much that there’s one certain thing you have to learn or one technique or secret or something. It’s more that you just have to take it seriously and realize it does take effort and work, and you have to develop some sort of strategy that works for you. And that’s going to take, you know, reading books about different investment techniques and getting a blend of it all and then figuring out what is going to fit for you. And that might change over the years. So when I started early, I was really a day trader, and now I’m more of an investor who tries to hold positions for several years if the market will let me do it.
Jim Goddard: 05:42 So what is your trading philosophy? What set of principles, beliefs, or experiences drive your decisions?
Mike Swanson: 05:49 Well, I’ll go quickly back to the books that really inspire me because they’ll help me answer your question. But there is one by someone named Stan Weinstein, Secrets to Profiting in Bull and Bear Market. The One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch. How to make money in stocks by William O’Neill and the Stan Weinstein book it’s probably the best book about charting and technical analysis I’ve ever read. And again, it’s written in the eighties, and you can get it on Amazon, but it’s out of print. But I’d recommend people buy these three books. And what it really focused on was the trend in the market. You know, you’re in a bull market or a bear market. And if you’re in a bear market, you can short stocks, and bet against them. If you’re in a bull market, you obviously want to go along. But he shows in this book the best times to buy. And he actually lays out a strategy of when to buy that he thinks is the best.
Mike Swanson: 07:05 So learning all that was really useful to me. And then the, William O’Neil book, he was the founder of Investor’s Business daily. And in his book, “How to make money in stocks,” he says that there are three things that determine that, you know, drive a stock higher. One is the individual characteristics of the stock, its fundamentals, does it have earnings growth. What’s the chart on the stock. And he also talks a little bit about charts, and then the stock market, you know, what’s the overall market condition. But then he has a third factor: the sector that the stock is in. And, you know, he claims in the book, and I believe it from my own experience, that he analyzed thousands and thousands of historical stock prices. And the number one determining factor of whether the stock goes up or down is what the stocks and its group are doing in its sector. So that, combined with the Stein Weinstein thing, that’s the primary way I figure out what I want to buy. It’s; what’s the chart of the stock and the sector, and what’s the sector doing relative to the stock market. So the stocks that tend to go up the most are the stocks that lead their sector, and that sector is outperforming the stock market.
Mike Swanson: 08:50 So as we’re speaking right now, gold stocks in 2022 in the first three months are among the top sectors of the market. So, energy stocks, if you look at gold stocks, Nuance is one of the top-performing stocks in the entire S&P 500 because it’s in that sector. Whereas a lot of stocks in the S&P 500 are down year to date at the moment. And Exxon is one of the top-performing stocks in the Dow 30, and, no coincidence, it’s in the energy sector. So to me, that’s the key, what is really closely following what the sectors are doing, and that’s something really hammered home in that William O’Neil book. So I think that that’s probably one of the most important things I really believe in.
Jim Goddard: 09:49 What’s your favorite type of analysis or indicator you find helps you with your trades or investments?
Mike Swanson: 09:57 The road is a strength indicator – what that is doing is dividing the price of a stock or fund with another stock or fund. So the way I use it to divide, I’ll just talk about the gold stocks. The GDX is a gold-stock ETF. You take GDX divided by SPY, it’ll create a ratio, a number, and you plot that out. And what that does is it will show you how GDX is performing relative to the S&P 500; which price is going up more than the other, not going down as much as the other. So that helps me visualize how a sector is performing relative to the stock market. And after that, this is a simple 200-day moving average. I would say it is the most important price indicator.
Mike Swanson: 11:06 And, you know, if something is in a bull market, it will trade above the two-day moving average. And that will act as price support on a long-term basis. And typically, the stock market, when it’s in a bull market, will touch that two moving average once or twice a year, giving you a good buy point for the broad market. But if you’re in a bear market, what’ll happen is prices will go below that. And then you’ll get bear market rallies up to that two-day moving average where things stall out, and that can last for months. After 2000, it lasted for about two and a half years. In 2007, it was close to two years. Right now, you know, we’re in a situation where the NASDAQ fell below that several months ago. So did the Russell 2000 and rallied into it and stalled out. So it says a lot about what the market really is. And you know, at the moment, this would all suggest the statistics with something like gold stocks, energy stocks, and avoid most of the NASDAQ a hundred. So all this can tell you where’s the best way to make money or where should I be investing. Or if the gold stocks eventually go below that through moving average, then I would want to get out of possibly.
Jim Goddard: 12:46 What’s something you wish you would’ve known before you started trading and investing
Mike Swanson: 12:52 Well, one of the biggest things I had to learn, and it took me the longest to learn, is to really hone down a money management strategy. And I knew I always needed that. I actually always suspected that if you just had a good money management strategy and were flipping coins, you might be able to make money on your trade, but there really isn’t any mapped out in a single book. In fact, I don’t know about one book that is about just the money management strategy, and it’s the topic that’s least interesting to people that could be why it’s more exciting to think about what you can buy and have it go up. But, the very first thing I ever heard about it just starting out was like, oh, if you can just risk $3 on a trade for every dollar, you’ll just make a killing, but that’s easier said than done. I mean, to find opportunities, we’re going to triple your money; that’s pretty hard to do on a consistent basis, much less on a short-term basis.
Mike Swanson: 14:18 So when I started, the main way I tried to manage risk was through using stop-loss orders on my position. And typically, I would put it right on the low or right below the low of the previous months. Some might advocate, oh, put it on a certain moving average. And if it goes below that, you can use that as a risk loss point and then figure out, okay, where would that potential loss be, how big would it be? And use that to define how much you’re willing to lose. And that’s sort of more or less what I did for several years. But around 2014, I learned of another strategy, which is what I do now. And that’s just a rebalanced position on a periodic basis.
Mike Swanson: 15:27 So those investors even, you know, they’ll say have 50% of their money in stocks and 50% in bonds. I wouldn’t do this now, but historically it had been a good strategy to do this, to rebalance a 50/50 bond stock account because when the stocks would go down, usually bonds would go up, and then you could rebalance it. And that would be a way to manage risk and boost returns by, in effect, selling something when it goes up, buying something when it goes down. But what I do is apply that to not investing like half the money in stocks, half the money bonds, but in a mix of sectors and different asset classes. So the problem is today, the bond market is really in a bear market, and bonds themselves don’t pay, as which is the rate of inflation. So they’re very difficult to use as a safety portion of a portfolio. So I have to do that with, say, gold or silver in a mix of different asset classes and be more, a little bit tactical, a part of my account, flexible meaning. So I think what I’m saying may sound complicated, but it just amounts to figuring out how you’re allocated and try to be in a mix of different things and just rebalance them periodically.
Jim Goddard: 17:14 We’ll have more with my Swanson right after this.
TheTechnicalTraders.com: 17:17 Are you ready to follow a proven trading strategy? Do you want to own the strongest index, hottest sectors, and bond ETFs only when they provide an opportunity for growth? Now you can, with the total ETF portfolio, trade alert, newsletter, follow our long-term investment positions, active index and bond trades, and own the sector ETFs during stock market rallies. Visit www.thetechnicaltraders.com to learn more.
Jim Goddard: 17:43 Welcome back. I am speaking with Mike Swanson. Mike, do you think inflation is spiking, and how will we know when inflation is actually topping out? And are there any indicators or signals that we should be watching for?
Mike Swanson: 17:57 Yeah, as we’re spiking, I don’t think it’s peaking at all. And I believe inflation is driven by rising commodity prices. I mean, they have the CPI index that, you know, factors in rent and energy and all the different things in it, various consumer items, but energy’s a big component of it. And energy is obviously, is what dominates the commodity market. The energy market is, I think, close to 50% of the commodity research bureau index. So when commodities go up, I think that’s what really causes inflation. Now, why they go up, that’s a whole other topic, but just to make it simple, commodity prices are continuing to go up.
Mike Swanson: 18:58 We just saw the CPI come out at 8.5% a few days ago. And they’re people that are saying, you know, it’s peaking, it’s peaking. And just in the days after that report, a lot of commodities made new highs. So I see no evidence that it’s really peeking out. And the big problem is that the price of oil in most commodities in general really made secular loads. In 2020, they had been in bear markets that were going on for years and made major bottoms. And then by the bear market, I mean, they were trading below their two-day moving average per year. Especially things like food, corn, and wheat, they were below their two-day moving average for almost ten years, some of them 12 years.
Mike Swanson: 19:59 And then, in 2020, there was a final low when oil prices even went negative in the futures market for a few days; that was a secular bot. And then, within weeks, all these different commodities were above their two-day moving average. So what that says to me is that event was the start of a secular bull market, and secular cycles tend to last a decade. So I think this inflation thing is going to go on and continue for quite some time. And if you want to compare it to the past, if it’s like we’re in 1972, if you want to think about the 1970s as being an inflationary decade.
Jim Goddard: 20:52 Oh, time to get out the bell-bottoms and the tie-dyed t-shirts.
Mike Swanson: 20:57 That would mean more fun than going into the metaverse.
Jim Goddard: 21:02 Growth stocks and sectors of 2020 had a terrible 2021 but have been starting to bounce back recently is a recent move up a time to buy more or sell the laggards.
Mike Swanson: 21:14 Well, I think one should sell the lagging positions. That’s how I navigate the markets. If there’s a sector and stocks in it that are lagging and people have hundreds, I think you want to sell the bounces or even short them. So, you know, stocks like Facebook, for example, they might be things actually short, and a lot of these things aren’t even growth stocks anymore. I mean, they’re not growing their Facebook, at least, and I don’t have a position on it, just using it as an example. It fell over 20% in one day. In January, when it came out and said that its earnings were shrinking because of the growth and peak of usage of Facebook, the website, they said, we’re going to make a shift to this metaverse and spend all this money to try to develop that.
Jim Goddard: 22:19 What sector or asset do you think would hold up well if we enter into a bear market in 2021/22?
Mike Swanson: 22:27 Well, I would say gold and silver at this point because even though I’m bullish on commodities and I do own energy stocks, I do think that at some point, there will be a recession, and likely some sort of pullback in commodities doesn’t mean the end of a bull market. I mean, they can just pull back to the two-day moving average, and they’ve been going up so much that that would feel like a big correction for people if it were to have. And at some point, it will, but gold and silver, they tend to trade together. That’s why I mentioned both of them. Still, I think at this point, if these stocks have been trading opposite to the stock market for the past couple of months, so actually, if a stock market pullback would help them, it would draw more money into them. And a pullback in the stock market in a recession would make the Fed have to say, well, we’re going to slow down on the rate hike. And that would just throw even more buying fuel for gold and silver.
Jim Goddard: 23:56 What’s the best advice you ever received?
Mike Swanson: 24:01 I would just say, take trading and investing seriously, that it’s easy when you start out just to get all excited about a stock pick or an idea. So I would say, like, Bitcoin is an idea, and crypto is an idea, and there’s a lot of people now that’s being excited about them. But I was excited about internet stocks in 1998, 99. You know, they were supposed to change the entire world. And they did have a huge impact that obviously changed our lives; we all use it all the time. But a lot of these stocks were just junk, and they went under, the companies went bankrupt, and so forth. And I know, in that cycle, many people bought into a lot of these stocks and just rode them on down to nothing and then got out of the market forever. They just gave up, and people thought, well, I can’t make money in this, but the problem was they didn’t have any sort of strategy at all. So that’s the advice. You got to have a strategy. You can’t just get excited about something and just, you know, buy it, and that’s it. You have to be on top of what’s going on, and it takes work. It’s not like you’re just going to the casino and playing a slot machine or something.
Jim Goddard: 25:42 Mike, is there a financial or business practice topic you’re really passionate about?
Mike Swanson: 25:52 Well, I’ve been doing this for so long that it’s hard to say, you know, and I’ve started businesses too or been involved in businesses. So it’s different when you first start out. I do think you can be more excited, and you’re in a learning-type mode. And you still have to learn different things as the years go by. I had a friend of mine, still a good friend, who told me that when it comes to business, it takes like five years to figure it all out and to really know totally what you’re doing. And that was my experience too, with businesses I started, with trading, you know, it took a couple of years, perhaps it took longer than that. When I first started trading, I remember hearing people say, well, it takes like a year. It took me a year to figure out I needed a strategy. And then it took me perhaps 14 years to really have a money management technique. So I’m kind of passionate about sharing my views, what I’ve learned, and trying to help people in that way, and more so than when I started out, it’s like a brand-new thing. So I guess that’s how I feel about it now.
Jim Goddard: 27:29 Mike, thank you so much for being on the Technical Traders Podcast.
Mike Swanson: 27:33 Thank you. Great to talk with you.
Jim Goddard: 27:35 Our guest has been Mike Swanson, editor of WallStreetWindow.com. I’m Goddard. Thanks for joining us this week on The Technical Trader Podcast. If you found value in our show, subscribe and give us a rating or share it with a friend that would be greatly appreciated as well.
Thetechnicaltraders.com is your store for technically proven strategies to make more money with less risk so you can take your trading to the next level. Comments made on the Technical Traders Podcast are an expression of opinion only, and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument. This information is for general information and educational purposes only. Guests on the show are not compensated for their participation. To view our full disclaimer. Please visit our website at www.thetechnicaltraders.com.
Every day seems filled with some new comment or data point that suggests the Global Market or the US Fed will aggressively attempt to burst the inflation bubble. Global central banks continue to warn that COVID, and other issues, persist. Traders seek some clarity and understanding of what’s going to happen next.
Will The US Stock Market Continue To Rally Higher?
Allow us to help you understand what is happening behind all these data points and news posts. We can understand key market components better by using specialized modeling systems that aim to distill market events into relatable trigger events within our strategies. This, in turn, helps us to better understand what may come next for the US markets.
We’ll focus on some of our Custom Indexes to better illustrate current market trends and conditions. These are examples of our Custom Smart Cash Index (a more global market custom index), our Commodity Price Index, and our Custom US Index (a focused US Custom Index).
Comparing The Global Market Index vs. The US Market Index
Looking at this custom Weekly Smart Cash Index vs. the US Index, it is evident that the Smart Cash Index (in RED) has fallen very sharply over the past 14+ months. We can interpret this downward trend as a sharp shift in inflationary, deleveraging, and economic trends in Asia and much of Europe. We find this shift interesting because it took place after a substantial rally in both US and Global market assets from November 2020 to early February 2021.
After the February/March 2020 COVID-19 event, the global markets entered a period of extensive economic recovery. The rebound in global stock market price levels prompted a strong wave of consumer engagement, rising asset prices, and robust demand for commodities, raw materials, homes, autos, and other core assets. As a result, consumers were flush with cash, and inflation levels were still timid (at best) – resulting in a +56% rally in the NASDAQ from October 2020 to the recent highs.
In February/March 2021, something shifted rather dramatically to push the global markets into this new downward trend – what happened?
Custom Commodity Price Index Chart Rallied 478% Above Normal Levels In Early 2021
In our opinion, the extended demands relating to the superheated reflation of the post-COVID economy set off an explosive inflation trend. The following chart shows our Custom Commodity Price Index Weekly chart – highlighting the date range from February 2020 to mid-May 2021. You can see from this chart the normal upper price range has historically been near 4.5 to 4.7 for moderately strong commodity and raw material demand.
In late 2020, our Custom Commodity Index chart pushed upward to a level near 8.0 in August 2020. Then, just after the US Presidential Elections, these levels rose even higher – reaching a peak level of 22.50 near early May 2021. That is a massive 478% higher than historical normal inflation levels.
What happened to the Smart Cash Index was multi-faceted. Inflation, deleveraging of a speculative bubble, and consumers pulling away from big-ticket purchases likely prompted a revaluation of assets throughout the globe while these inflation trends continued to elevate.
Debt/Credit Concerns Could Be Driving Investor Sentiment Now – Actively Seeking US Dollar Safety
As we’ve seen, Chinese Real Estate Developers struggle with excessive debts and price levels contracts as consumers pull away from risks throughout the globe. The question becomes, globally are we only starting this new deleveraging event process.
Many months ago, we published an article suggesting a new Depreciation Cycle Phase had started in December 2019 (just before the COVID-19 virus hit). You can read that article here: US DOLLAR BREAKS BELOW 90 – CONTINUE TO CONFIRM DEPRECIATION CYCLE PHASE. We want to highlight the transition that is taking place throughout the globe related to this Depreciation Cycle Phase. Looking at past research can help you better understand the broad-market trends.
The Depreciation Cycle Phase Will Prompt An Asset Revaluation Process
First, as global markets continue to struggle to find support, global assets will naturally migrate to the safest and strongest global assets (which appear to be the US Dollar & US Stocks at this point).
Eventually, assets will shift into “bottom-fishing” while global assets appear to have reached an intermediate base level. This happens as shifting valuation levels drive investors to “fish” for opportunities – trying to pick bottoms in downward trending assets. Stay cautious of this type of activity.
Lastly, continuous deleveraging pressure may prompt even the most vital assets to fall, closing the gap between the US Custom Index and the Smart Cash Index.
I will highlight the potential that a rally in the Smart Cash Index while the US Custom Index trends lower (where both asset bases converge) would also attempt to satisfy a revaluation process.
The Custom Smart Cash Index Weekly Chart shows current price levels are just below the 2019 highs. What this translates to is the global market level has deflated more than -26% from the early 2021 peak level. Much of this is related to what is happening in China/Asia, but it also reflects a broader deleveraging event that continues to unfold.
Concluding Thoughts
The major global economies (US/UK/Japan) will not likely stay immune from these downward trends. Eventually, the pressures related to deleveraging and inflation will push asset prices into a revaluation process. What that looks like is anyone’s guess at the moment.
The US markets will attempt to hold near recent lows as long as the US Dollar and foreign investors continue to see the safety and security of the US economy. If the US economy falters, capital will quickly move into broader safe-haven or opportunistic global assets (cryptos, Metals, Bonds, or undervalued global markets).
Global markets are still transitioning from a post-COVID speculative event. That means, traders must understand where opportunities exist and how to profit from subtle price trends. Part of what we do at TheTechnicalTraders.com is to distill price action into technical strategies and modeling systems. These then assist us in understanding when opportunities exist in the US stock market and specific sector ETFs. Our core objective is to protect capital while identifying suitable opportunities for profits in trends.
KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, AND APPLICATION ARE NEEDED
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered in March, all have now been closed at a profit! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SmartCash_W_F.png579850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-25 09:43:562022-04-25 09:44:00Global Market Trends Continue To Push US Dollar & US Assets Higher
Investors have been processing high inflation reports, rising interest rates, surging energy, commodity, and real estate prices. So, what is the market saying about which markets investors have favored the last couple of years vs where are they putting their money right now?
A way to determine this is to simply plot the indices and then see how they stack up against each other. Price data should also be viewed and analyzed in a multi-timeframe environment: short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
As a trader or investor, we know it’s important to determine if a market is in a bull, bear, accumulation, or distribution phase. Additionally, we want to know how the market we’re trading is performing compared to its peers.
The following charts provide snapshots of how the SPY ETF (US S&P 500) is doing compared to the other US and global stock indices.
The year-to-date chart is showing us a maximum volatility spread of 15.73%. This is simply the difference between the highest stock index, Australia 200 +1.18% vs the lowest stock index US Nasdaq 100 -14.55%. Australia’s market has recently done well due to its strong energy and commodity interests which in turn has contributed to the strengthening Australian dollar.
The volatility spread at first doesn’t seem that significant but over time it can be substantial. This is one of the reasons why our team continually tracks global money flow according to each country’s stock index but additionally other types of markets and asset classes. Our quantitative trading research is crucial in determining which markets to trade and how to efficiently employ trading capital.
This maximum volatility spread during 2021-2022 is 44.42%. The highest stock index, India 50 +23.75% vs the lowest stock index Hong Kong 33 -20.67%. The Hong Kong and China stock markets have been plagued with numerous Covid issues in 2020, 2021, and now recently again in 2022.
Now we can take a longer-term view of the past 2+ years covering Covid before and after. We notice that the Nasdaq 100 is the overall leader despite its recent negative performance in 2022.
This maximum volatility for 2020-2022 is 89.70%. The highest stock index, US Nasdaq 100 +69.70% vs the lowest stock index Hong Kong 33 -20.00%.
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered in March, all have now been closed at a profit! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-04-19_14-37-40.jpg8071070adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-25 09:38:422022-04-25 09:38:47Where Are Investors Putting Their Money – Now Vs. Then?
