Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move

On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points.  We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.

Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates

First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months.  The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery.  The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.

Reason #2 Fed Had To Cut Rates

Second, the US Fed must attempt to ease the foreign market US Dollar carry trade liabilities and attempt to allow more US Dollar opportunity in the foreign economy.  Over the past 2 to 3+ years, the supply of US Dollars within the foreign markets has diminished considerably while demand has increased.  Because of this, a US Dollar shortage currently exists in much of the global economy.  The US Fed is attempting to allow more US Dollar supply by lowering the FFR.

Reason #3 Fed Had To Cut Rates

Lastly, the US Fed, attempting to accommodate a more adaptable rates policy in order to more adequately facilitate the global economic turmoil that is persistent throughout the world.  Even though the US economy is still very strong and showing only mild signs of weakness currently, the US Fed felt the need to become more accommodating to allow more flexibility for global central banks to navigate through the current trade and geopolitical issues.

Dollar Hits Resistance And Should Reverse Down

Metals reacted by moving lower as the US Dollar rallied after the Fed announcement.  The US Dollar is currently near the upper price channel that we believe will prompt a weaker US Dollar over the next few weeks and will likely prompt a move lower over the next few weeks – allowing metals the ability to skyrocket higher over this same span of time.

Gold Set To Rock Higher

Gold is reacting to the US Dollar/Fed news by rotating within the black line and magenta arc levels that we highlighted weeks ago.  These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs highlight key price levels that are acting as resistance for Gold right now.  Once price breaks these levels, Gold will skyrocket above $1550 and likely target $1650 or higher.

Silver Ready To Rally

As we’ve highlighted several times, Silver is likely the best trading opportunity set up on the planet right now.  We’ve highlighted where we are currently (“We Are Here”) and where we believe the price will move to in the future on this chart.  Using our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc levels and Fibonacci price ranges, we can “guess” where price may target in the future and where peaks and valleys may form.  We believe silver is setting up for a move to levels above $21~$22 right now and will begin this move higher within the next 2 to 5 weeks.
Even though the US Fed is attempt to act as a savior for the global central banks and attempting to easy US monetary policy while the global markets attempt to address their political and economic issues, we believe the US economy is uniquely strong in relation to other global economies and we believe the fear/greed factors will continue to increase over the next 15+ months or longer. Gold and Silver are setting up to become some of the best trades we’ve seen in a very long time for us, technical traders.  We believe Silver could rally well above $30 over a very short period of time.  Don’t worry about the rotation in the metals markets as a reaction to the US Fed.  The real news is that the US Dollar has reached the upper price channel limit which should prompt a bigger upside move in the US metals.

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Energy Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are

Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups.  Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb.  It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy. We believe the move lower in Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken.  Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes. Please read our recent research post to know where Crude Oil is likely to head next. Also this crude oil, prediction uses our oil price DNA algorithm to show us the future price range of oil. Other energy-related symbols, like Natural Gas and ERY, are set up for a different type of price move. The reality of the situation is that once Crude Oil reaches to levels near $50 ppb, it is very likely that a support level will push Crude back higher (as we suggest in our research) which will align with a seasonal pattern for Natural Gas and early Winter demand for heating oil.  September, October, and November are typically a ramp-up period for winter demand and end of year holiday travel.  People tend to take advantage of the last bit of Summer to seek out vacation spots, prepare for winter and push the cold back as long as possible. Future contracts may move higher, in preparation of this seasonal trend, many months before the season actually starts.  This is the reason we believe the energy sector is setting up some incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

The weekly chart of Natural Gas

This first Weekly chart of Natural Gas highlights a basing pattern that we’ve been following for months.  We believe any move below $2.30 is a strong bottoming/basing setup for skilled traders and our predictive modeling systems suggest we are just weeks (3 to 5+) away from a big upside move in NG. We believe natural gas will continue to fall and base. Once a bottom has been made the upside potential for NG over the next 60+ days is quite substantial.  We believe an in initial upside move after it bottoms will be to levels above $3.15 will take place before October 10 and that potential for an extreme breakout upside move above $4.00 is quite likely before the end of November 2019. Please read this article to learn more about our research into NG and the opportunities that are setting up now.  Also, this post we shared Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone.

ERY – Bear Energy Sector Chart

Keeping in mind that the setup within the energy sector is two-fold.  First, Oil and NG will continue to fall and base/bottom (moving slightly lower over the next few weeks).  This is why ERY is such a great setup right now.  Any breakdown in energy commodity prices over the next 3~5 weeks will push ERY 15% to 25% higher from current levels – which is exactly what we are expecting to happen. Then, as Crude Oil and Natural Gas base in their support zones, ERY will peak which is when we want to pull profits from ERY and watch other bullish energy ETFs for long side setups. From current levels, we believe ERY will target $50 to $52.50 fairly quickly as Crude Oil and NG continue to move lower and setup a momentum base within the basing zone/support range.  Remember Crude Oil should move to levels near $50 (a full 10% lower than current price levels) before basing.

Concluding Thoughts:

As we’ve been suggesting for months, 2019 and 2020 are setting up to be incredible years for skilled technical traders.  These moves in commodities, energy, and metals are providing us with trade after trade of 10%, 20% or more.  Almost every month, the markets are setting up 10 to 15+ incredible trading opportunities and all we have to do is time our entries and run these trades as we do any other trade. Not all trade setups are the kind we like and we only enter the ones that we think have the highest opportunity and lowest risk. Get ready because these incredible setups in Metals and Energy should keep you busy pulling the trigger to create profits over the next 5+ months or longer with my  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free. Follow our research and visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part II

Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post. We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook.  The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel.  Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in.  Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”. We believe global investors are expecting a massive collapse in the US stock market as a reaction to this move by the Fed and because of the expectation that another bubble has set up in the US.  But we believe the actual bubble is set up in the foreign markets and not so much in the US.  Yes, the US markets have extended to near all-time highs and the US consumer is running somewhat lean.  It would be natural for the US economy to revert to lower price levels and for the US economy to rotate as “price exploration” attempts to find true market support.  Yet, our fear is that the foreign markets are much more fragile than anyone understands at the moment and that a reversion in the US markets will prompt a potential collapse in certain foreign markets.

Weekly SPY chart

This Weekly SPY chart highlights what we expect to transpire over the next 6 to 8+ months.  We believe the August 19 peak date that we predicted months ago will likely start a process that will be tied to the US election cycle event (2020) and the US Fed in combination with global market events.  We believe a reversion price process is about to unfold that could be prompted into action over the next 2+ weeks by the US Fed, trade issues and global central banks.
If the US Fed drops the FFR by 25pb, the fragility of the foreign market debt/credit issues is not really abated or resolved.  It just allows for a bit of breathing room that may allow these foreign debtors enough room to wiggle out of some of their problems.  The US Fed would have to decrease rates by at least 75 basis point before any real relief will materialize for these foreign debtors.

Asian Currency Custom Index

This Asian Currency Custom Index used by our research team highlights the weakness in the foreign markets.  The recovery in 2018 is related to the Chinese/Asian currency market recovery that initiated in Feb/Mar 2018.  The recent weakness in this custom index is related to strengthening major market currencies (USD, CAD, JPY, CHF) in relation to weakening Asian currencies.  Notice how the price channels have set up to warn us that any further downside move will initiate a new “price exploration” phase that could see a -20% to -25% decrease in currency valuations – possibly much deeper.
We believe this is the real reason the US Fed is opting to decrease the FFR rate now and is not taking a more stern position related to US economic performance.  We believe the US Fed is, again, donning the “Superman cape” and attempting to Save The World from their own debt/credit mess. We are holding to our original predictions and expectations.  We believe the US stock market indexes will enter a reversion price phase over the next few weeks that will prompt a downside price reversion toward recent lows (2018 levels or deeper).  We believe this process will end in early 2020 and that the lows established by this move will represent incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

Weekly Dow Jones chart

This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020. This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.
Skilled traders understand how the global markets are setting up for incredible opportunities and how to identify where and when these opportunities are ripe for profits and this is where we can help you!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

THIS IS IT – LAST DAY, LAST CHANCE!

Lock in your membership rates before we raise prices Tomorrow!

We have such incredible news to share with all of our existing members and all of our followers/non-members. This new technical traders technology application we’ve created and continue to develop exclusively for our members allows us to deliver an incredible level of service, alerts, updates, trading triggers and much more. Over the next 12+ months, we’ll continue to add more features, charting, strategic trading signals and tools, and more to deliver an expanded range of trading support and solutions for our members. What you see below is Version 1.0 of what is to come. While this live updating portfolio and alert system may look basic, in reality, the engine we build behind it will allow us to take both our trading and your trading to a whole new level.

TheTechnicalTraders Position & Trading Application

Take a look at some of our recent trades our application that instantly and automatically tracks our trades, send email and SMS trade alerts to you. It WAY faster than me spotting the alert then manually having to type up alerts and send them with a long delay – this is now instant!
Right now, we are working on three new trading tools that will provide all of us traders with the most benefits. Remember, we are not just building this for you/members to fluff up the member’s area, I’m building what I Want and Need to become an even better trader which in turn will boost members profits and learning experiences. These next features will start to be included over the next few months:
  • The V9 Trading Algo (including charts and trade alerts/signals)
  • The Predictive Price Cycle Analysis (including charts with cluster reversal signals)
You can see some of our proprietary solutions in the sample charts below:

V9 Trading Algo – Trend Trading SP500 – SSO 2x Leveraged Trading Signals

V9 Trading Algo – Momentum T1 and Swing Trade T2 SP500 – SSO 2x Leveraged Trading Signals

V9 Trading Algo (Trend, Momentum, and Swing Trades) GOLD – GLD Signals

Predictive Cycle Cluster Reversal Tool SP500 – Index

Existing members, you don’t have to worry about a thing – you are already grandfathered at your current rates. 

Non-members, now is the time to decide if you want to secure these lower rates and allow us to help you create greater success in your future?  If you have been thinking about joining our exclusive group of traders, now is the time to do it – before the rates go up.

We intend to continue to develop and include new features, trading systems, and proprietary trading solutions like these into our new TTT Traders App for all our existing and new members The big benefit we are alerting you to, today, is that if you subscribe now before we raise our rates, you will be grandfathered at the current rates for as long as your membership renews with us.  By subscribing now, you will actually save more than 28%, plus get free silver or gold, vs. waiting until after July 31, 2019. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to get started. EDIT: September, 26, 2019. New Terms and Conditions are in effect. Grandfathered rates may no longer apply. Please read the Terms and Conditions available on the sign-up page of www.thetechnicaltraders.com.

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August 19 Price Peak Prediction Is Confirmed By Our ADL Predictive System

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is one of the most unique and incredible predictive price utilities anyone has ever seen. Over the past 24+ months, the ADL system has been able to call nearly every market rotation in the US major indexes (the ES, NQ, and YM) as well as our incredible call in Gold from October 2018 till now.  There is really nothing on the planet that can make accurate predictions for future price activity like our ADL predictive modeling tool.

Weekly chart of the NQ – NASDAQ

This Weekly chart of the NQ (NASDAQ futures) highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems results from a price peak in late April 2019.  The results consist of 52 unique price instances that make up the future predictive price levels.  This prediction suggested that price would fall to levels near $7200 by May 27, 2019, then rally from that date to a peak level near August 19, 2019.  This new August 19 peak level will likely be near $8500 – nearly +500 pts from the current price level. Traders that have setup short positions may feel quite a bit of pressure over the next 4+ weeks as this move higher extends to align with our ADL predictive modeling system.  Overall, we believe a volatile price period in the markets may extend near this August 19 prediction where price volatility will increase and a potential for a downside price rotation may occur. Additional ADL predictive results suggest a downside potential for price to levels near $7200 as volatility increases near August 19, 2019.  These predictions are suggesting that the key date, August 19, 2019, will likely be the peak in the price for a period of time.  The downside predictions where the price is suggested to reach $7200 indicates the range of potential volatility after the August 19 peak. We have been suggesting that traders continue to scale back long positions before this peak is reached.  Ideally, we urge traders to pull some profits off the table and to prepare for this potential rotation in price as well as to prepare for increased volatility near or after August 19, 2019.  Our extended research suggests deeper support is found near $6700 and we believe a volatility increase could drive prices towards these levels in a reversion price rotation.
As of right now, the most logical expectation for the price is for a continued upside price bias lasting 3 to 4 more weeks reaching a price peak near August 19, 2019 – just as we originally predicted. The Fed rate cut we just talked about could be what spurs the market on for this final exhaustion rally. As we near that critical date, we expect to see increased volatility throughout the global stock market and we would expect the VIX to begin a spike move higher. Currently, an ADL price anomaly is setting up that may prompt a quick downside move on or after the August 19 date.  It is because of this price anomaly setup that we are suggesting the bottom for the price could be anywhere between $6500 and $7200 (ADL predicted levels).  In other words, get ready for some increased volatility and a very strong potential for a price reversion to unfold. We have seen some really strange price action in small-cap stocks this week which I will cover shortly as well, so stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Fed Set To Rattle Global Markets – Part I

With less than 24 hours to go before the US Fed rate decision announcement, all eyes are watching how the US stock market is reacting to the possibility of a rate cut (25 basis point) that has been telegraphed by the US fed many weeks in advance. Almost as if the US stock market is moving against all odds, the S&P and NASDAQ have pushed higher into new all-time high territory while the Dow Jones index currently trades just below recent highs.  What should traders expect with the Fed announcement and beyond?

Probability of Rate Cut Percent

First, we need to understand the global markets have already priced a 25 basis point rate decrease into the markets based on expectations.  The CME Fed expectations data suggests the market is 78.1% confident that a 25 basis point rate decrease will happen.
Source (CME) This suggests that global traders are already prepared for this move and we may not see much volatility if the US Fed does not surprise anyone with their language/future expectations. We believe the US Fed is taking this rate decrease to ease the supply of US Dollars throughout the world.  Over the past 18+ months, the strength of the US Dollar has prompted a shift away from weaker global economies and into the US equities market, US Treasuries and the US Dollar.  We believe this shift is reaching a critical moment in time where the fragility of the foreign markets has reached a tipping point.

Weekly US Dollar chart

You can see from this Weekly US Dollar chart that the rally from the bottom in early 2018 has been tremendous – +11.25% and climbing.  While this US Dollar rally has taken place, many foreign currencies have continued to weaken while the global economy has recently slowed to a crawl.  As long as the US Dollar stays within the magenta price channel moving forward, we expect this trend to continue.
The shift in how capital is being deployed and the stress that continues throughout the globe with regards to economic activity and output is related to something that we believe took place back in 2007 through 2016 – the global effort to support a very weak global economy. We highlighted some of our thoughts in this recent research post about the black hold in global banking. Overall, we believe the actions by the global central banks and the US Fed from 2007 till 2016 created a “setup” in the global markets that very few people foresaw or understood.  This shift happened at a pace and fever that few people could comprehend and came to a head in November 2016 when President Trump was elected.  We believe it happened somewhat like this… 2004~2006: Greenspan raises rates on an unprecedented scale (over 450%) pushing the US/global banking/credit sector into crisis in 2007-08 2008~2010: As the biggest global banking/credit crisis unfolds, the US Fed and global central banks do everything possible to save the world from decades of economic malaise and destruction.  US Fed lowers interest rates to near ZERO creating a run on US dollar debt/credit.

The Current Market Setup

2011~2015: As foreign market engages in debt/credit expansion, infrastructure projects and an “easy money” rally mode, something begins to change in 2014~2015.  China realizes the nation’s wealth is being exported to the US and other markets as well as a US stock market rotation that shocked the global investors. 2016~2017: The US Elections (2016) took the focus away from the global markets for a period of 15+ months and allowed the easy US Dollar trading activities to continue into hyperspace.  This is when many foreign nations/companies took huge risks leveraging debt and success into future debt/risks based on a belief that “this success will never end”.

Then This Happened…

January 2017: President Trump is sworn in and the US Fed begins raising rates aggressively.  The disruption that resulted from this 2017 combination event resulting in one of the largest “global unwinding” processes we’ve seen in quite a while and it has really only just begun. The downward rotation in the US Dollar in early 2017 as a result of uncertainty in US policy and perceived strength in foreign markets as US interest rates were still relatively low – under 1.4% most of that time.  After US FFR rates crossed above the 1.75% level, the easy US Dollar carry trade became much more difficult to maintain and foreign investors had already setup trillions in debts expecting the US Fed to maintain easy money policies for decades.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR What is the US Fed expected to do at this time?  Either they lower the FFR so that the global markets can continue to run their credit/debt functions and attempt to deleverage the “setup” over the next 5+ years or the US Fed risks creating a run-away train type of scenario where foreign central banks lack the ammo to support their own economies and the US Fed risks creating hyper-inflation by not acting accordingly.  In short, the US Fed to the global bankers rescues again. Well, here we go with the US Fed setting the policy and expectations for the future as this incredible 1800% FFR rate increase has pushed the global markets into potential turmoil.  We’ll complete our research in the second half of this research post in a few hours stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, And S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

(Part II) Us Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready

In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days.  Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside. Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future.  We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019. With this in mind, Part II will continue to explore trade setups and opportunities related to our belief that the NQ/Technology Sector will become one of the biggest rotations when this move happens.

NQ/TECS price prediction

Our downside NQ price prediction supports a hedging trade in TECS for skilled technical traders.  If our predictions are accurate, then the risk levels for a strategic trade in TECS are only about 10% to 15% from current price levels and the upside profit potential is 12% to 35% (or more).  We are actively seeking an entry price near recent lows in TECS (near $11 or lower) over the next 2+ weeks as we watch the US stock market continue to attempt to push to new highs.

TNA, Small Cap Bull ETF

The TNA, Small Cap Bull ETF, is often a leader for the US major markets.  This Weekly chart highlights the weakness that is found in the Small Caps compared to the NQ chart above.  While the NQ chart has continued to push higher, the TNA chart has rolled-over and has weakened substantially from the October to December 2018 rotation.  It is our belief that the continued price weakness in the Small Caps will provide a leading price confirmation of the US major markets price rotation downward over the next few weeks and months.
We also believe the Transportation Index (TRAN) will lead the markets lower over the next few weeks and months.  Skilled traders must learn to search for these market-leading triggers/signals to stay ahead of the next big price swings. So, within this article, we’ve highlighted three incredible trading opportunities and setups for skilled technical traders.  Each one is aligned to a single event that may happen in the future and each one varies in the price level, scale, and scope for different skill levels of traders. The opportunities for these types of trades in 2019 and 2020 keep setting up over and over again.  We believe the next 2 to 3 years are going to continue to create incredible opportunities for us as technical traders. You can become a technical trader with us before Aug 1st if you ack now! There are dozens of great trades setting up right now in preparation for the August 19 price peak/price rotation that we predicted months ago.  The markets are setting up for some really big swing trades and we urge all traders/investors to be prepared for these moves by joining my Wealth Building Newsletter

5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets topping and the pending gold and silver bull market

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Us Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready (Part I)

As we near the important date of August 19, 2019, and we watch how the markets are reacting based on our earlier predictions, it is becoming evident that the US stock markets and global stock markets are following our predictions very well.  The fact that these markets are doing almost exactly what we predicted months ago suggests that our call for an August 19, 2019 breakdown in the US/Global markets should also align with price activity very well. This Q2 earnings week and the continued shifting of capital withing the global markets are suggesting a couple of things that traders need to be aware of : _  Quite a bit of capital has already been pulled out of the global markets over the past 60+ days. _  The US Fed has hinted that a rate decrease may be in the works over the next few months – suggesting that the Fed is more concerned with increasing economic activity than further normalization efforts. _  China, Asia, and Europe continue to deal with slumping economic activity, demand and output. _  Deutsche Bank is an unknown factor that could turn into a black-hole for the global banking system _  Global derivatives activities have decreased tremendously over the past 15+ months. We suggest that everyone take a few minutes to review these recent research posts to better understand what is actually happening in the US/global markets. – NASDAQ Targeting 8031 Forecast – PART II – Global Debt Crisis – Earning Surprises- Watch Out! Our belief that the US stock market would continue to push higher while attempting to break key psychological price levels has played out perfectly.  The recent Q2 earnings data has accomplished just what we expected – a continued upside price bias with moderate volume.  This move has pushed the VIX into a lower basing pattern and we believe the NQ may attempt to rally to levels above $8000 again (after breaching this level on July 16). The key to everything our predictive modeling systems are suggesting is a “rollover in investor sentiment” that is likely to take place after Q2 earnings data is completed and in the midst of an August (Summer) slump in economic activity.  Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools have suggested that the US markets will find unexpected weakness starting in early August, peaking near August 19 (which is when we expect a breakdown event to occur) and continuing for many months after this move begins. We believe this downside price move will be associated with some type of external economic impulse – such as a collapsing banking/debt sector in China, news of a hard Brexit taking place, a Deutsche Bank collapse or some type of external event that will prompt this downside price move. As volatility continues to expand while capital is being pulled out of the markets, this creates a VOID of liquidity when an event like this takes place (similar to what happened during the Flash Crash event).  Traders should be very cautious right now because all of the evidence that we’ve been able to find suggest institutional level players have already scaled out of the markets and move into protective investments.  Thus, any real breakdown in the markets could be vicious and aggressive at this point. This Weekly NASDAQ Futures Chart highlights the BLUE ELLIPSE resistance level that price is currently testing.  It is our belief that price will run into extreme resistance at this level and roll-over into a downtrend over the next 30+ days.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a downside target of 7000, 6000 and 5910.  The deepest of these levels align almost perfectly with the lows from December 2018 – a -25% price decline.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Do you want to know where other opportunities can be found based on this NQ prediction?  Are you ready for these types of great trade setups for the rest of 2019 and into 2020? In part II of this article, we’ll highlight two more great trade setups that align with our expectations for the US and global markets. You should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Silver Should Pause At $16.75 Before Next Rally Starts

Our advanced Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that the current Silver rally may be nearing a point where the price will pause and retrace a bit before advancing further.  The incredible breakout rally over the past few weeks in Silver was a real surprise for many investors.  The sleepy shiny metal that everyone thought was dormant broke well above the $15.50 level on huge volume and continued to rally to levels near $16.65. We published some incredible research regarding the longer-term potential for precious metals – specifically the potential for Silver as the Gold/Silver ratio continues to decline.  Please take a minute to read this research post PART I. We believe the upside potential for Silver is, at a minimum, targeting $26 to $34 for an immediate upside price objective.  Overall, longer-term, we believe Silver could rally well above $50 as the Gold/Silver ratio falls to levels below 65. This Daily Silver chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows you that price has already reached the upside price objectives for this current expansion leg.  Sometimes price may rally beyond these levels (in extreme trending), but we believe the recent pause in the rally suggests the price will rotate lower (to levels near $16) before attempting another upside rally leg.  We’ve highlighted what we believe will happen with arrows on the chart and we believe the next leg higher will align closer to the early August time-frame.
This Weekly Silver chart also highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system, yet it shows the longer-term price modeling results.  Overall, the CYAN level, near $16.65, is acting as our first level of moderate price resistance.  We believe the support from the previous price peak, drawn as a MAGENTA LINE, will act as support and price will rotate between current levels and this support level before forming a momentum base and attempting to move higher – targeting the $18 to $18.50 level.
Take advantage of this price rotation before the next move higher.  Silver is extremely undervalued in comparison to Gold.  Any reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio, which is already taking place, will mean that Silver will rally 30% to 60% faster than Gold rallies. This will happen because the disparity in price between Gold and Silver has reached an extreme level.  As precious metals rally, this disparity level decreases.  Silver moves higher much quicker because it continues to be extremely undervalued compared to Gold and is more affordable nicknamed “poor man’s gold”. There are dozens of great trades setting up right now in preparation for the August 19 price peak/price rotation that we predicted months ago.  The markets are setting up for some really big swing trades and we urge all traders/investors to be prepared for these moves by joining my Wealth Building Newsletter If you want to see 5 other crucial warning signs about the US markets topping and the pending gold and silver bull market just take a look at this short video and charts. In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Energy Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are

Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups.  Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb.  It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy. We believe the move lower is Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken.  Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes. Please read our recent research post to know where Crude Oil is likely to head next. Also this crude oil, prediction uses our oil price DNA algorithm to show us the future price range of oil. Other energy-related symbols, like Natural Gas and ERY, are set up for a different type of price move. The reality of the situation is that once Crude Oil reaches to levels near $50 ppb, it is very likely that a support level will push Crude back higher (as we suggest in our research) which will align with a seasonal pattern for Natural Gas and early Winter demand for heating oil.  September, October, and November are typically a ramp-up period for winter demand and end of year holiday travel.  People tend to take advantage of the last bit of Summer to seek out vacation spots, prepare for winter and push the cold back as long as possible. Future contracts may move higher, in preparation of this seasonal trend, many months before the season actually starts.  This is the reason we believe the energy sector is setting up some incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

The weekly chart of Natural Gas

This first Weekly chart of Natural Gas highlights a basing pattern that we’ve been following for months.  We believe any move below $2.30 is a strong bottoming/basing setup for skilled traders and our predictive modeling systems suggest we are just weeks (3 to 5+) away from a big upside move in NG. We believe natural gas will continue to fall and base. Once a bottom has been made the upside potential for NG over the next 60+ days is quite substantial.  We believe an in initial upside move after it bottoms will be to levels above $3.15 will take place before October 10 and that potential for an extreme breakout upside move above $4.00 is quite likely before the end of November 2019. Please read this article to learn more about our research into NG and the opportunities that are setting up now.  Also, this post we shared Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone.

ERY – Bear Energy Sector Chart

Keeping in mind that the setup within the energy sector is two-fold.  First, Oil and NG will continue to fall and base/bottom (moving slightly lower over the next few weeks).  This is why ERY is such a great setup right now.  Any breakdown in energy commodity prices over the next 3~5 weeks will push ERY 15% to 25% higher from current levels – which is exactly what we are expecting to happen. Then, as Crude Oil and Natural Gas base in their support zones, ERY will peak which is when we want to pull profits from ERY and watch other bullish energy ETFs for long side setups. From current levels, we believe ERY will target $50 to $52.50 fairly quickly as Crude Oil and NG continue to move lower and setup a momentum base within the basing zone/support range.  Remember Crude Oil should move to levels near $50 (a full 10% lower than current price levels) before basing.

Concluding Thoughts:

As we’ve been suggesting for months, 2019 and 2020 are setting up to be incredible years for skilled technical traders.  These moves in commodities, energy, and metals are providing us with trade after trade of 10%, 20% or more.  Almost every month, the markets are setting up 10 to 15+ incredible trading opportunities and all we have to do is time our entries and run these trades as we do any other trade. Not all trade setups are the kind we like and we only enter the ones that we think have the highest opportunity and lowest risk. Get ready because these incredible setups in Metals and Energy should keep you busy pulling the trigger to create profits over the next 5+ months or longer with my  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free. Follow our research and visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.