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HUI, GLD, SLV, USO, UNG, SPY Trading Charts

The market continues to whipsaw traders out of positions as volatility rises. I have put together a few charts to show you where each of our commodities are trading along with the SPX (SP500 index).

My Gold Stock Breakout Model – Monthly Chart
I use this chart to keep my big picture trades on the right side of gold. I found that gold stocks tend to lead the price of gold so watching this gold stock index on the monthly, weekly and daily charts can provide me with short term tops and bottoms for trading gold bullion, GLD or DGP exchange traded funds.

The monthly chart clearly shows the rally in stocks has now sold back down to my resistance trend line. If we do not get a rally this week in gold stocks, then I think we could see gold trade sideways or down for several months.

HUI Gold Stock Newsletter

HUI Gold Stock Newsletter

GLD Gold ETF Trading Fund – Newsletter
The daily gold bullion fund shows the recent price action and what I think could happen in the coming weeks. In the past couple days gold has moved to a short term support level where I think we could see buyers step in.

We took some profits near the high and continue to hold a core position until we have another technical breakdown or new setup to add more to the position again.

GLD Gold ETF Trading Newsletter

GLD Gold ETF Trading Newsletter

SLV Silver ETF Trading Fund – Newsletter
Silver is in the same boat as gold. We have taken some profits and are still holding a core position with protective stops in place just incase the market does head lower from here.

Silver SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

Silver SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

USO Crude Oil Trading Fund – Newsletter
Crude oil started to bleed lower last week as the price sliced through the multi month support trend line. Volume shot up as stop orders get triggered on the way down. We finally have a move outside of the pennant formation that has been in place for several months. Now we can start looking for a low risk setup for trading crude oil again.

Crude Oil USO Trading Newsletter

Crude Oil USO Trading Newsletter

UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund – Newsletter
Natural gas has really come back to life. I mentioned on September 2nd that natural gas (UNG) looked like a buy between $9 – $9.50 and it has now rallied 25% since that point. But stepping back and looking at the chart we can see resistance is hovering over head between the $12 – $12.25.

I may send out a setup for a short play if we get one but I feel the heavy sell off in August was the final wave down, flushing out traders. Speculative traders seem to have moved into natural gas and I think they will continue to buy it for some time. Pullbacks will be sharp but most likely followed with more buying as we enter the cooler months of the year.

Natural Gas UNG Trading Newsletter

Natural Gas UNG Trading Newsletter

SPX Index Trading – Active Trading Partners
I thought that I would show a quick picture of the SPX because it shows the psychology of traders and how it repeats it’s self over and over. The black and green waves are virtually the same patterns.

I feel as though the market is ready for a larger pullback than what we had in June/July but my focus will be to buy in the oversold dips and lighten my positions in overbought conditions (scaling in and out of positions) until the trend confirms it has reversed.

SPX SP500 Trading Newsletter

SPX SP500 Trading Newsletter

My Market Trading Newsletter Conclusion:
Gold stocks are pulling back and precious metals continue to move with the overall market action. I do feel that gold and silver will break this relationship and start to move higher in the coming months but until that happens I remain cautious with my positions tightening my stops.

Crude oil is starting to come alive and I am now looking for some low risk setups for energy related funds. Last week’s technical breakdown could provide us with a big move in the coming months.

Natural Gas continues to hold up but is now trading near resistance. Depending how many spec traders there are still lingering around (as most lost their shirts in the recent months), will dictate how much higher natural gas will move. The 25-30% rally in the past month has been very powerful and this could be just the beginning. I am now waiting for another setup that could be a long or a short trade depending on what happens next.

If you would like to get my Bi-Weekly Trading Reports via email please visit my websites at: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com for commodities and www.ActiveTradingPartners.com for Stock Trading.

I hope everyone had a great weekend!
Chris Vermeulen

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DIA, UUP, GLD, SLV & XLE Funds Shift Momentum?

Today we had a reversal day for the broad market, us dollar, precious metals and oil. The market is over extended. We have seen the market rally 20% since the July low.

Inter-market analysis is important to understand because everything is related in some way. The next month will be very interesting with the US dollar trying to rally, which will put pressure on precious metals, stocks and commodities.

DIA ETF – Dow Industrial Fund
Stocks look to have formed a similar pattern as the March rally this year. The market has the same feel and price action that we saw during the June high, which is telling me we should move stops up to protect profits. Wednesday the market had an intraday reversal and that is a sign of weakness. The past four trading day’s is the same as the July bottom (multiple Doji Candles). Doji candles indicate a possible reversal.

DIA ETF Trading Newsletter

DIA ETF Trading Newsletter

Broad Market Volatility Index
Here is a weekly volatility chart that shows we are at a long term support level. The saying is, buy when the VIX is high, sell when the VIX is low. Just to be clear, I am not saying sell everything. I am just pointing out that the market is ready for a multi week correction. I am tightening my stops and limiting my position size for new log positions.

VIX Volatility Index Trading

VIX Volatility Index Trading

UUP ETF – US Dollar Intraday Price Action
The dollar sold down Wednesday, then rallied very strong into the close, indicating a shift in momentum. The dollar has been trending down for several months and ready for a bounce.

UUP US Dollar Trading Fund

UUP US Dollar Trading Fund


Precious Metals Under Pressure
Below is a chart of Gold and Silver showing the weakness on Wednesday and the sharp sell off late in the session, when the US dollar started to rally.

Precious Metals Trading Newsletter

Precious Metals Trading Newsletter

XLE Energy ETF – Intraday Chart
Energy sector moved down in the morning and managed to wiggle its way back to positive territory late in the day, but when the US dollar rallied, crude oil and the energy sector sold off sharply.

XLE Energy Trading Newsletter

XLE Energy Trading Newsletter

Inter-Market Analysis Conclusion:
In my opinion things look to be setup for a multi week shift in momentum. It looks like the US Dollar will bounce putting pressure on precious metals, stocks, and commodities like crude oil.

Stocks look ready to correct and a bounce in the dollar will trigger the correction.

Gold is at a major resistance level, and taking a breather at this level would be normal price action. Gold has also been trading in sync with stocks, so this relationship is most likely still in place. If stocks move down, so will gold.

Crude oil is having a tough time moving higher and with Wednesday’s higher than expected oil inventory levels, there will be more down side pressure.

Currently we have several profitable position and we will be tightening our stops and looking for new opportunities in the coming days.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports for ETF’s or Stock Trading Reports please visit my websites: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com and www.ActiveTradingPartner.com

Chris Vermeulen

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ETF Trading for GLD, SLV, UNG, USO Funds

Commodity ETF trading charts allow us to track and trade the underlying commodities with ease. I have provided a few daily charts to show were current commodity prices and chart pattern are at.

GLD Gold ETF Trading – Daily Chart
As you can see from the chart below GLD had a nice 4 day rally breaking out of a longer term pattern (weekly chart – pennant pattern). This bullish action triggered several different types of traders/investors to buy into the move including us. After taking some short term profits we continue to hold a core position with a stop in place to lock in more profit if we see the GLD ETF move lower from here.

Interest for GLD is decreasing which you can see from the volume divergence on the chart. This is a bearish sign, but we remain long until the price action tells us to get out and wait for a new short term trade.

GLD ETF Trading Newsletter

GLD ETF Trading Newsletter

SLV Silver ETF Trading – Daily Chart
SLV ETF has been trending upwards for about a month and is now trading in the middle of its trend channel. We could see silver trade sideway or down for a couple days as the price consolidates. We continue to hold a core position and wait for a technical breakdown to lock in more profit, or have other possible low risk setups to add more to our position.

SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

UNG ETF Trading – Daily Chart
The UNG etf looks like it may be ready for a pullback and shorting this fund or buying a nat gas bear fund could be a good trade in the coming days. Notice the two price moves lower back in May & July. They were both followed by two bounces before making another leg lower. UNG could easily move up to $12.50 level but a technical breakdown will trigger speculative sellers. Shorting a fund like this which has terrible contango can actually help improve your returns. I will post an update for members if we have a short play on it later this week.

UNg ETF Trading Newsletter

UNg ETF Trading Newsletter

USO ETF Trading – Daily Chart
USO etf trading has been slow in the past couple months because of the sideways price action. With any luck we may get a low risk buy signal before the longer term (weekly Chart – Pennant Pattern) breakout, which will trigger speculative traders to buy oil again. I continue to follow this fund for potential buy signals for my clients.

USO ET Trading Newsletter

USO ET Trading Newsletter

USO, UNG, SLV and GLD ETF Trading Conclusion:
GLD traders should be ready to take profits if we see a continued move lower below our blue trend channel. I am always sure I do not take a loss on a trade once it becomes profitable by 2% or more and this is the key to consistent gains.

SLV ETF traders have been rewarded nicely in the past couple weeks. The price of silver has more room to fall before breaking down or bouncing so wait for one or the other before jumping. Following a trading model allows you to make consistent returns and catch large rallies over time for much larger gains. But you must follow the charts with a technical eye and discipline.

UNG traders had a very nice 25% rally from the perfect waterfall sell off a few weeks back. The price is now getting close to a resistance level so tighten your stops to lock in maximum gains before the price rolls over. I may have a short play for this commodity if we get a proper setup.

USO crude oil traders have been twiddling their thumbs as they wait for a breakdown or new rally higher. This chart pattern looks similar to the GLD breakout we had so oil could put in a much larger percent move than GLD with any luck in the coming months.

In short we continue to hold our positions and ride the market with protective stops in place. Lest see what happens this week.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports via email please enter your email address on my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com or Stock Trading Reports at www.ActiveTradingPartner.com

Chris Vermeulen

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3 Different Head & Shoulders – 3 Different Investments Gold Silver and the US Dollar

Everyone is talking about gold shooting to the moon because of the massive reverse head & shoulders pattern forming, not to mention the economy isn’t as good as some of us would like it to be?. I put together this quick report to show the bearish side of things for once.

Bearish Points for Gold & Silver:
• Silver looks to be forming a H&S pattern
• Gold made a new high in March and quickly sold off
• Gold’s neckline is angled up which makes for a weaker breakout if it occurs
• The US Dollar looks ready for big rally.

SLV ETF – Weekly Chart
Silver is a great performer but we may have to start looking at shorting precious metals in the coming months if prices start breaking down.
1SilverHeadAndShoulders


GLD ETF – Weekly Chart
I like to be bullish on precious metals but these charts don’t provide much comfort. I will admit there are bunch of different ways to draw this gold chart which can make it look very bullish. But we cannot forget that the market will hurt the most individuals possible and we must be ready for these moves when they happen. Most traders think gold is going to breakout to the up side because of the economy and the famous Gold Reverse H&S pattern. But if everyone thinks this already wouldn’t everyone already be in gold? Who is going to buy gold to take it to the next level??

Also I want to point out that this reverse H&S has a neckline angled up which in my opinion is not a good sign. It shows the price was allowed to move above the previous pink high to suck in traders/investors as they panic to buy the breakout. Soon after buying gold they get taken to the cleaners as price plummeted. I just know from day trading that this type of head & shoulders pattern is not as accurate to trade and I avoid them (price patterns perform the same in all time frames).
2GoldHeadAndShoulders

US Dollar – Weekly Chart
Take a quick look at the US dollar. It formed a very nice H&S pattern and broke down to the measured move area quickly. Also this chart looks like a large bull flag and could start to move higher from this support level in the coming months. If this happens we will see precious metal prices drop.
3USDHeadAndShoulders

Technical Trader Conclusion:
The precious metals market is under pressure from the US dollar and some major resistance levels. Overall silver is underperforming gold and I look at silver as leading indicator. We are currently in cash waiting for a low risk setup for gold, silver, oil and natural gas.

If you would like to receive my free weekly trading newsletter please visit my site: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold, Silver, Natural Gas & Oil Technical Traders Ltd. Update

I hope everyone had a great weekend and is now ready for another week of trading. I have put together a few simple charts to show you what we could see with prices in the near term. While I do not predict future price movements (because it is impossible to always be correct), I do like to know what could happen and be ready to take action when something significant occurs.

The five charts below quickly summarize what I am seeing in the market currently.

Gold Stocks – HUI Monthly Chart

Gold stocks have been performing very well this year. As you can see from the chart stocks are getting squeezed into the apex, which generally creates explosive moves. We could be months away according to this chart so don’t get trigger happy just yet.

A breakout to the upside will most likely trigger a very large rally. But if prices break down then I expect to see gold stocks pull back to new yearly low.

Gold Bullion Market

Gold Bullion Market

GLD Gold ETF – Gold Bullion Prices – Daily Chart

Gold has been trying to move higher the past 4 weeks and is having a tough time. With any luck gold will bounce higher Tuesday or Wednesday starting a new rally higher. If prices do not hold, up I figure we will see a sharp price drop which could go all the way back down to the $800 level within a couple months. I am currently long gold and will continue to hold it until I see a technical breakdown on the chart.

GLD ETF Trading Signals

GLD ETF Trading Signals

SLV Silver ETF – Silver Bullion Prices – Daily Chart

Silver is in the same situation as gol. It’s pointing to higher prices but a breakdown will most likely trigger a sharp sell off. I currently own silver and will be looking to exit below the $14.00 level.

SLV Silver ETF Trading Signal Newsletter

SLV Silver ETF Trading Signal Newsletter

UNG Natural Gas fund – Natural Gas Prices – Daily Chart

Nat Gas looks to be breaking down once again on rising volume. We could see another waterfall type drop this week.

UNG Fund Trading Signals

UNG Fund Trading Signals

USO Crude Oil Fund – Crude Oil Prices – Daily Chart

Crude oil had a big pullback Friday which could make for a great short term intraday play on Monday. Sharp price drops like this will generally have bargain hunters (buyers) step in the following day to push the price higher. Also I pointed out that oil is trading at 4 different support levels. This could give prices an intraday pop or possibly start a new leg higher in the coming days.

I continue to wait for a low risk setup in oil, which is possible that we get a setup this week. Only time will tell but I will keep you posted.

USO Crude Oil Fund Trading Signals

USO Crude Oil Fund Trading Signals

Technical Traders Conclusion:

Gold stocks, gold bullion and silver are trading at support levels. The overall trend is up so there is more of a chance that we will see a bounce from here. But the market always throws in a curve ball so be prepared for locking in gains or cutting losses quickly if we see prices slide lower.

Natural Gas continues to have selling pressure and looks to be having a technical breakdown as of last Friday. This could be a nice play for those aggressive traders who want to take advantage of a 1-3 day breakdown in price.

Light Crude Oil is in a similar situation as gold and silver. Currently trading at support and could go either way, but the odds are in favor for a bounce.

I will update again on Wednesday night, if you would like to receive these quick technical trading reports to your inbox Free please visit my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com .

Chris Vermeulen

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Press Release, New World Order Economic Crisis Investing in 2009

PRESS RELEASE – FACT SHEET ON:

NEW WORLD ORDER ECONOMICS

WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PROTECT YOURSELF – Crisis Investing in 2009

Book Title: As above

Publisher: Taylor Forensics

Price: $ 24.95

Type of Book: eBook

Crisis Investing in 2009 Webpage and Provided by Chris Vermeulen – TheGoldAndOilGuy:

J.T. Grenough – New World Order Economics – Crisis Investing in 2009

Insert from Introduction:

INTRODUCTION FROM THE AUTHOR – Jerry Grenough

“There’s no shortcut to any destination worth going.” UNKNOWN

I wrote this book (New World Order Economics – What You Can Do To Protect Yourself) for a major demographic section of the country – investors who are concerned about their future and their holdings. At recent dinners (anniversaries and weddings I’ve attended) with large groups of people, the most talked-about topic is the economy and investments. Everyone is concerned without exception. This book is in-depth and leading edge material and a must-have for anyone with any size of portfolio.

I’ve seen a dearth of material on the market and very few people have a one-stop all-inclusive source of material on international, non-traditional investing that can protect them quite well from the current shock and awe of Wall Street. This book will be a must-have, a necessity – for economic survival as the next seven-nine years of this L-shaped credit bubble goes through stages until we reach the far side.

I thought of the title and just to see if it had been requested (via Google), I entered the first keywords of the title and found to my amazement 18,200,000 people who have entered these exact key words in a search. I’m not talking search results but the number of people who have searched with these words – New World Order Economics. If you enter New World Order Economic you have even a more amazing discovery – 28,700,000 people have searched using that nomenclature. That tells me there is an absolutely gigantic number of people out there who are looking for answers.

This book covers:

Ø Oil & Geopolitics

Ø Gold Shares Around The World

Ø Hard Currencies & International Currency Funds

Ø A Resource Chapter on Gold, Silver, Mining & Energy

Ø Offshore Real Estate Investing – Safe Havens

Ø Hedge and Short Fund Investing Strategies

Ø Gold Funds and Exchange Traded Funds

Ø Creative Non-Paradigm Planning

I have not found any other books that allow the investor to safely re-balance their portfolio from their home office, without leaving there. It is written as an eBook, for ease of search ability (just enter Ctrl F and you can find any search term or topic you want), and for ease of research ability – since investing is a continuous process this book has over seventy key links to major sites you will need from time to time for updates. It also is formatted to allow printing if you wish.

The target audience is American investors. However, the book may appeal to the British and European audience as well. The old axiom of “buy and hold” obviously just doesn’t cut it any more.

I’ve previously published a 90,000 word nonfiction book (copyright now owned by Thomson Reuters) I wrote for ‘scholarly’ purposes and not for royalties, designed for reading by corporate CEOs. I currently hold position at a large privately-held conglomerate dealing with Corporate Risks & Investment Risks in terms of corporate treasury holdings and various other areas. I was previously with First American as a Regional Audit Director under the recently passed Sarbanes Oxley legislation.

I am not an Investment Advisor and thus have no self-interests. I’m a writer and a researcher and that’s what you need right now.

Author: JT Grenough

Publication Date: March 2, 2009

Email contact: TaylorForensics@aol.com

Ordering Procedure: From the web page: Upon receipt of a check or money order for $ 12.95 accompanied by the email address of the individual, we email the PDF eBook the same week. The book is priced reasonably and delivery is in a streamlined format.

Author’s Bio:

JT Grenough has also written a book “Protecting Your Company Against Civil and Criminal Liability” and holds position as Assistant Director of Internal Audit for a privately-held conglomerate. He can be reached at TaylorForensics@aol.com.

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Gold, Silver & Oil Newsletter Update Jan 25th

GOLD TRADING

April gold closed sharply higher on Friday and above December’s high crossing at 892.20 thereby renewing the rally off October’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week’s rally, October’s high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 842.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 905.50. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 938.20. First support is today’s low crossing at 853.80. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 842.60.

Gold Trading Signals – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

SILVER TRADING

March silver closed higher on Friday and above the upper boundary of this fall’s trading range crossing at 11.770. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.047 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 12.075. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.047. Second support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 10.320.  

CRUDE OIL TRADING

March crude oil closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.09 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 54.74 is the next upside target. Closes below December’s low crossing at 38.00 would open the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 30.00 later this winter. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 47.00. Second
resistance is this month high crossing at 54.74. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 39.11. Second support is December’s low crossing at 38.00.

Gold Trading Signals – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen