Archive for month: June, 2018

We have been pouring over the charts to find out what to expect over the rest of 2018 and our advanced predictive modeling tools are showing us a few key elements that all traders need to be aware of.  So, let’s get right to it.

First, the NASDAQ has likely neared or reached its peak near 7400 for the next few months.  Don’t expect the NQ to move much beyond 7400 and don’t expect a lot of volatility in the NQ over the next few months.  Our research shows the NQ should stall near 7400 and volatility should decrease through September (possibly).

Second, the ES/YM/Transportation sectors are poised for a very healthy rally over the next 3+ months or longer.  We believe a massive capital shift is underway that will drive capital from foreign markets and tech stocks into Blue Chips, Small Caps and the Transportation sector.

Third, the US dollar will likely continue to appreciate towards 122 after a brief price stall near 120.85.  120.85 is resistance that will probably cause the price advance to stall a bit before pushing higher.  The next resistance level is near 122 and is our next higher target.

Lastly, overall volatility will likely decrease in the general market as price trend continues to unfold.  The recent spike in the VIX has a lot of people wondering if we could see some type of deeper market rotation.  Our opinion is that these projected upside trends will begin after the July 4^th trading week and surprise many traders.  Shorts will get squeezed very quickly as this upside trend unfolds.

Now, let’s take a look at some charts.  This, a Weekly US Dollar chart, shows the recent price channel breach as well as the clearly defined upside price trend.  120.85 is currently resistance near the 50% retracement level of the previous price downtrend.  This level will likely cause the price to stall a bit before advancing higher to the 122.00 level.  Overall, until something changes in the global markets or price pushes above the 123.65 level, we expect the US Dollar to continue to advance.

This, the Monthly Dow Jones Transportation Index, shows us the scope and amplitude of recent price swings as well as the price alignment of price rotation over the past 3+ years.  Notice that the last Fibonacci Arc Square aligns with price pullbacks and retracements much like the one originating near 2012 through 2014.  The point of this exercise is to understand how the price is supposed to react within this expansion and to attempt to predict the future upside targets based on these moves.  It is our opinion that the Transportation index will rally to near $12,200 before this move is over.  The reasoning for this is simple – given current and past price rotation, the alignment of the Fibonacci arc suggests that $12,200 will be the ultimate price peak.  Simply put, we just align the Fibonacci arc to price rotation and see where the final outcome for the price is located.

Lastly, this Monthly YM Chart shows us a very clear picture of what to expect over the long term if our predictive analysis and projected price/cycle analysis is correct.  The YM should rally to new highs before the end of this year while potentially stalling near the end of 2018 or within Q1 of 2019.  This stall/peak formation will result in a slight price correction (of likely 3~6%) before prices, again, begin another upside move.  These Fibonacci price circles help us determine projected price targets as well as assist us in understanding current and past price rotation.  The key to all of this is overlaying different analysis and predictive modeling systems that help us understand what to expect in the future.  From this analysis, we can then take at look at these types of “trigger point models” that helps us to understand where and when the price may attempt to reach peaks or troughs.

The current price rotation in the market, with the ES trading near 2720, would indicate that the ES, YM and other Blue Chips may be setting up for a massive upside move.  The YM alone could rally nearly +3000 points ($15k per contract) and the ES could rally +100 points (+$5k per contract) over a fairly short period of time (3~8+ weeks).  This is a tremendous opportunity for traders.  Get ready for an incredible opportunity for profits and let us help you stay ahead of these moves.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trading solutions, better research and provide a top-tier solution for active traders.  If you like our research and find it helps you, then consider joining our other valued members in supporting our work and taking advantage of our solutions for active traders.  Want to know where this market is headed and what to expect throughout the end of this year and beyond – our members already know what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting for the next 5+ months.

Do These Charts Make Sense or Confuse You? It doesn’t matter, just use our easy to follow trade alerts complete with entry, stop, and price targets! JOIN NOW AND TRADE LIKE A PRO!

Chris Vermeulen

Over the past few months, our research team has authored many articles regarding the weakness in China/Asia as well as the recent rotation in the global markets as trade issues, debt issues, the G7 meeting and, more recently, concerns in the US and Europe regarding immigration and political issues create chaos in what was, just 18 months ago, a relatively calm global market.  Yes, there have been some concerns over the past few year with regards to debt issues and other concerns, but the recent shakeup in the status-quo of the global markets seems to be presenting a massive opportunity for investors.

The recent news is that the European leaders are convening an Emergency Meeting to discuss immigration issues and other issues.  This emergency meeting is warning us that other issues are at play here and immigration issues are the result of many failed policies and management by the EU to protect and distribute diversity to EU members.

We believe this emergency meeting could result in a big fat “nothing” from the EU which will expand additional pressures on EU member nations to find solutions on their own regarding immigration, costs, debt and others.  In other words, if our assumption is correct that this meeting will result in the EU leaders saying “well, it’s just the way it is right now – we’ll have to come together to find a way to deal with it” will result in a massive backlash revolt from other EU members.

Additionally, concerns originating from within China and Asia are indicating that massive debt issues, defaults and margin calls.  We warned of this economic contagion cycle back in late March 2018 and early April 2018 with our detailed multi-part research post.  This is just beginning as China has been an economic leader for most of Asia, thus as China deals with a contracting economy and some levels of economic contagion, so will the rest of Asia.

We expected to see an explosion in defaults and reduced foreign capital investment as China attempts to curtail this credit crisis event.  This means many of the emerging markets will see some extended weakness while pricing attempt to find support in the face of unknowns and unpredictable outcomes.

Lastly, in the US, with mid-term elections only about 3 months away, and with Mexico having elections only a few days away (July 1, 2018) a number of key factors for North America are unknown.

Right now, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (ALMO) appears to be a potential winner of these elections, yet from news we see that Mexico is moving away from new-liberalism and towards a more populist leader that could expand tensions with the US President.  Just recently, ALMO urged Mexican citizens to overwhelm the US with illegal immigrants while attempting to move Mexico away from reliance on the US for economic support.

Our opinion of this is that ALMO is walking a very fine line given everything that is going on throughout the globe at the moment and although it may sound good to his people – there may be some very tough situations ahead in making this a reality.

We, the research team at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have recently released a Members Only update to our valued members that shows our predictive modeling systems expectations over the next 2~4 weeks for the US equity markets.  We can’t show these to you because this is a free article to help you see what is happening and that the markets are about to have some big moves.

What will happen? That is only for our subscribers at the Wealth Building Newsletter.  But, what we can show you is what we believe are critical charts for the next few weeks in regards to the global markets and the expectations ahead.

First, Bitcoin recently broke below the $6k level on a breakdown move that could be a sign that no strength really exists near this $6k level.  Please understand that if this $6k level is broken and no real support is found near this level to keep prices above $6k, then $4k or lower is an immediate downside target.  Below $4k, we are talking about $1600 price levels.  This represents a 70% price decrease from recent level if it happens.  So, pay attention to Bitcoin as we believe the meltdown in cryptos could present real issues in the global markets as a derivative market risk factor.

 

Next, this Weekly BRICS chart (emerging market custom index) is clearly showing the weakness in price levels extending much lower over the past few months.  Remember, the BRICS markets are a basket of major emerging markets and this price channel breakdown could be an early warning of a much larger downside price trend setting up.  Weakness below immediate support may result in an additional price decline of -20% or more from current levels.

 

This Weekly China/Asia custom index is showing us that recent price weakness has recently broken a FLAG/PENNANT formation that tells us price weakness could accelerate as debt issues, defaults and margin calls expand.  Somewhat similar to what happened in the US 10 years ago, when this debt bubble continues to collapse, the issue is how do the Chinese contain this collapse event while continuing to support their global efforts and multi-national efforts to become a global economic leader?  Think about it and understand that China has expanded quite extensively over the past 12+ years on the support of the global central banks and US Fed.  The recovery efforts throughout most of the world have created an environment where China could attempt to expand with ease and allow their credit markets to expand without much risk.  Well, not that the world is changing direction and President Trump is attempting to settle trade and other issues – it’s a completely new playing field for the Chinese and for most of the world.  We believe the next few months could show further signs of weakness in the Chinese and Asian economies as well as, potentially, lead to an emerging market collapse before the end of this year.

Lastly, the US Dollar.  Yes, the trusty old GREENBACK.  It is not very difficult to explain or understand why the US Dollar will likely stay above 110~115 over the next few years and likely push a bit higher over the next few months.  All of the preparation by global economies to bring multiple national economies near par with the US economy (think the European Union and the efforts of China to bring the Yuan into the global market as a suitable currency), have resulted in what we have today – an expansive effort to bring foreign economies to near par basis levels against the US Dollar.  The attempt to accomplish this was based on a bias that existed 8+ years ago during the global economic recovery efforts and was based on the ability for “all economies” to achieve great success and develop renewed balance as a result of such efforts.

In other words, the intent was to create multiple base currencies that could be used in global transactions that were near par to the US Dollar – ideally removing the US Dollar as the only real stable currency for such transactions.

Yet, here we are – on the cusp of what could become a global divergence from these “best-laid plans” and on the verge of a greater level of debt contagion, credit defaults, margin calls, global political issues and global immigration issues as a result of these globalist biases.  Europe, China, Asia and dozens of emerging markets and European markets are having to defend themselves from the seemingly out of control liabilities and expenses with these globalist biases.  Just as we are seeing in Mexico right now, this defense is resulting in a populist/nationalist movement that could push the unraveling of these biases even further.

And what happens to the US Dollar through all of this?  Our belief is that the US Dollar will, again, attain and secure itself as the leading global currency with continued strength and security.  We believe a massive capital flight mechanism has already been active where foreign capital is rushing into the US markets in an attempt to avoid devaluation and risk factors.  We believe this will continue for at least the next 6~12 months as global issues continue to be resolved.

 

Please take a moment to review some of our other, older, research posts by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and seeing how we can help you stay ahead of the market and find greater success while trading.  Our members love our research, our predictive price modeling systems, our Daily video forecasts, ETF trade alerts, and more.  Our job is to help you become a more informed, and better trader.  We know you will be satisfied with our efforts and we urge you to become one of our valued subscribers today.

 

Well over a month ago we warned our followers of a “capital market shift” that was taking place in the global markets.  Nearly 3 months before that time, we warned that China’s economy was about to enter a sustained economic downtrend cycle that could be dangerous to the global markets.  Today, we offer further evidence that the global markets are, in fact, shifting away from a price correlation to the US Majors and this move could be a warning sign that emerging markets and global markets could lead the world into an extended stagflation cycle.

Think about this for a minute, as we briefly discussed in our last article, what would happen if the US markets continued to rally on a strong economy with strong consumer participation while the US Fed was slow to raise interest rates while supporting a transitional shift of the US economy towards more manufacturing, technology, and expectations?  How would the world’s economies react to such a shift given their current economic cycles and opportunities?  Would they be able to keep up with the US or would they start to trail further and further behind the US?

It is our belief that any continued strengthening of the US economy could, in fact, present real dangers for many of the world’s economies simply because they may fall completely out of sync with the US stock market as their currencies, economies and consumer expectations fail to keep up with the US capabilities.  How all of this will play out over the next few months/years is our concern.  We know it will result in some tremendous trading opportunities for investors, but it could also create a new class of undervalued assets that could present some real long-term opportunity over the next 20+ years.

Let’s start by taking a look at our China/Asia custom index to show how the past 60+ days have more clearly shown this price disconnect happening.  When you look at this chart, pay attention to how closely this custom index (the candles) have moved in relation to the SPY (the blue area chart overlaid onto the candles).  Notice how the moves in the SPY were relatively closely mirrored by the custom index.  This is a direct price correlation to the SPY over an extended period of time.

Now, focus on the last 6~9 bars on this chart and take a really close look at how the SPY has rallied higher while this custom index has stayed flat to lower over the same time frame.  The only answer for this type of price disconnect is that a global capital shift could be underway that is driving capital out of certain markets and away from risk and danger.  In other words, it is our opinion that the China/Asia markets are starting to be perceived as riskier and more dangerous in relation to the US market and other more mature markets.

 

Now, let’s take a look at the BRICS custom index.  YIKES!!  What happened here?  Through most of 2017, a price correlation can be seen where the BRICS index moved somewhat in unison with the SPY price activity – although in some cases a bit delayed.  Yet, after March 2018, something dramatic happened.  When the SPY rotated lower in late March 2018, the BRICS index stayed relatively flat near the highs.  Then in May 2018, a price disconnect became very evident as the SPY began to rally while the BRICS index began to sell-off – very dramatically.  The BRICS index also broke through the BLUE price channel recently which is another sign that price trends/activities have shifted.

 

You should now be starting to see what we have been warning you about for months – the global capital market shift that is taking place.  This is happening because mature nations and economies are capable of achieving great economic growth and stability than many foreign markets and because many foreign markets have squandered the last 10+ years attempting to expand externally and not support their fundamental economic needs.  As we have used this example before, a flower only has two modes of operation – flower mode (expand) or survive (keep the core plant alive).  We believe these foreign markets have been in “flower mode” for the past 10+ years and have failed to support the core elements of their economies.

Now, onto more examples, this time Western Europe.  Again, this custom index is weighted with the SPY, so it should reflect some of the price support of the recent uptrend.  Yet, we see the most recent few weeks of this chart have shown a dramatic downtrend?  This would indicate that the European markets/currencies are disconnecting from the US majors at a much more dramatic pace, recently, that they have been over the past few years.  Yikes!

 

What about India & SE Asia?  Our custom India index has shown relatively FLAT recent price activity compared to the SPY.  Overall, our opinion is that India has yet to completely diverge from the US majors and we urge all investors to be aware that any further price breakdown in this India custom index will warn that the Indian/SE Asian economies are losing their battle to stay correlated to the US markets going forward.  Right now, there is evidence of weakness in the India custom index – yet there are limited signs of a broken correlation to the US markets.  It certainly shows that this price disconnect could be happening and likely is happening – yet we don’t have clear signs that this custom index is breaking to new lows (yet).

 

Lastly, lets take a look at our Russia/Eastern Europe custom index for signs of a price disconnect.  This chart is somewhat similar to the India chart (above).  There are signs of weakness and downside price rotation while the SPY has been rallying, yet there is not massive disconnect evident on the right edge of the chart.  We believe the recent downside price rotation within this custom index are the early warning signs of a price disconnect in the early stages of setting up (just like in the India chart).  We believe these charts clearly show that the US market (and other mature economies) are advancing beyond the functional capabilities of many emerging and foreign markets.  What will come from this, if it continues to play out as we expect, is a huge number of opportunities for traders and investors.

 

The next 3 to 5 years are likely to be very interesting and exciting for traders and investors.  These types of moves don’t happen too often and should these markets continue to rotate as we are expecting, we could see some very big currency and foreign market moves over the next few months and years.  You owe it to yourself to stay ahead of this move and learn how to profits from the extended volatility that will likely result from this price disconnect.

We believe we have nailed this analysis as we have correctly called the weakness in China/Asia as well as the global capital shift that is starting to play out in the global markets.  We already know what will likely move and when we should expect these opportunities to set up.  We are preparing our valued subscribers for this move and protecting them by providing them even more detailed research and analysis than you are seeing here.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how this could be the biggest opportunity of your trading and investing life and how you need a qualified and dedicated team of researchers to help you stay ahead of these moves over the next 2+ years with our long-term discounted subscription plan and Save 39%.  There will come a time when you will be wishing you had access to our proprietary research and member-only trade alerts and investment positions. Become a technical trader today and prosper with us!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

As we all know a picture says 1000 words, which is one of the reasons why I gravitated to trading using technical analysis. I can look at a chart and in seconds understand what price has done and is likely to do in the near future, without knowing a single thing about the company, index, or commodity. Why spend time reading news, financial statements, and other opinions when you can fast-track the entire process with a chart.

So, let’s just jump into the 30-minute chart of natural gas which shows the regular trading hours 9:30am – 4pm ET.

Natural Gas 30-Min Chart with Oversold and Trend Analysis

This chart could not be any more simple. Green bars and green line mean price is in an uptrend and you should only look to buy oversold dips. We got long a 3x natural gas ETN on May 3rd right near the dead low. After a few weeks, price action and longer term charts started to signal potential weakness, so we closed out the position for a simple 32% profit.

 

UGAZ 3X  Leveraged Natural Gas Fund

Here is 240 minute (4-hour) candlestick chart of the natural gas fund.

 

53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Become a technical trader today and profit!

With the G7 meeting concluding and the world about to start reacting to what was said and what was heard, it is time to take a look at the Crude charts with our Advanced Fibonacci price modeling system.

Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, believes Crude will continue to drift lower over the next few weeks testing the $60 ppb level before breaching this support level and ultimately targeting $58 or lower.  Lacking a real resolution to the trade and other global issues, we believe continue global economic pressures will drive oil prices dramatically lower over time – at least through the Summer months.

This Monthly Crude Light chart shows our Advanced Fibonacci price modeling system at work.  As of right now, we see a recent price rotation top (highlighted by the RED DOWN TRIANGLE) near the right edge of price as well as the RED and GREEN Fibonacci projection levels near $69.50.  These projection levels indicate that the $69.50 level is likely resistance.  Notice the BLUE and CYAN Fibonacci projection levels near $58.00 ppb.  The fact that these two levels nearly overlap one another indicates that the $58.00 ppb level is a key price level for current support.  Obviously, the ultimate downside target, near $14.00 ppb, is an extended downside level that could happen – but is not likely till all other levels a breached with downside price activity.

Currently, as long as the $60.00 ppb is not breached, the Monthly Fibonacci price modeling system trend is “Bullish” and a move to below $58.00 would change the trend to “Bearish”.  As we stated, the $60.00 price level is critical going forward on this Monthly chart.

 

This Weekly Crude Light chart paints a shorter-term price picture and clearly highlights the most recent price decline with a clear sell trigger near $69.00.  Take special notice of the Fibonacci upside targets between $54 an $58 near the right side of the chart.  These upside targets, because the price is moving lower from above and has breached the Bearish Price Trigger Level (RED), are now downside target levels.  With no real support between the current price and the $58.00 level, we expect oil to continue to fall to near the $58.00 level before finding some support – possibly as low as $54.00.  Ultimately, if these levels don’t provide sufficient price support, oil prices could fall back to near $45 ppb before finding any real support – a -30% decrease from current price levels.

 

One thing that we find interesting is that the ERY (Energy Bear ETF) has yet to reflect any of this concern.  Yes, we can see some price support near the right edge of this Weekly ERY chart, yet it appears the general market is not factoring in the gap in support below the $58.00 price level – meaning ERY could see a big jump higher on any price breakdown in Crude prices.  How big?  Our research team believes this move could be greater than 70% ROI from current levels if our predictions are correct.  A breakdown from current levels to below $55.00 ppb in Crude would likely cause ERY to rocket above $60.00 per share from the current price levels near $32.50.

 

To be clear, Crude is poised to retest the $60.00 ppb level before attempting to find support near $58.00.  If this support fails, then expect Crude to fall to near $54.00 ppb before finding support.  This move will likely cause ERY to rocket upward to well above $50.00 on a short-term move (possibly higher).

Watch for news this week regarding oil supplies and the G7 aftermath.  We are certain the news cycles will provide some hints as to the future economic cycles and expectations for the Summer months.  We believe the supply glut and current trade issues are causing concerns in trade and transportation activities, thus we believe the downside move in Oil is almost inevitable at the moment.  Great supply, diminishing demand, and global trade/economic concerns will likely push Oil prices back below $55 within the next 30~45 days.

Stay aware of these fantastic trade opportunities by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and learning how we can help you stay ahead of the markets with our advanced predictive modeling systems, expert research, daily video content and detailed trading signals.  Our proprietary research is second to none – you won’t find these tools or capabilities anywhere else.

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we’ve called nearly every move in the markets this year and continue to astound our members with our detailed research.  Opportunities exist for profits every week – it is simply a matter of finding them and executing them.

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