Archive for month: April, 2018

Here at Technical Traders Ltd., our inbox has been full of questions from followers regarding the recent market rotation and concerns about another downside move. We understand trading is an emotional process and that fear and anxiety often play a very big role in decision making – we get it.  So, before the markets open for trading this week, we wanted to share some exciting news and we hope this helps to settle some emotions.

As you are probably well aware of by now, our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling systems has been nailing the markets for the past 7+ months for both intermediate and intraday highs and lows.  One of the most powerful components of this predictive modeling system is watching for price correlation to modeled behavior and watching for what we call “price anomalies”.  We have mentioned this before in previous research articles.

Before we continue, its important to mention that we will no longer be posting these (ADL) forecasts and trade setups publically. This analysis is reserved for our subscribers and for our own trading to take full advantage of the markets.

Price anomalies occur when the current market price is under some level of pressure (upward or downward) that pushes price away from the predicted levels.  This happens with global news events, earnings events and other market psychology events.  Our opinion is that price reacts to these external events over a relatively short period of time, then, as the events settle, price reacts to the traditional behavioral models predicted by the ADL modeling system and attempts to recover to near these predicted levels.  Let’s take a look at a recent example of these ADL price anomalies and how the work.

In this example below, we see two recent weekly ADL price anomalies and how the market price reacted to “revert” back to the ADL predicted price levels.  We believe these types of events are price level exceptions that occur with some regularity in the markets and can be traded to our advantage for some incredible gains.  Pay attention to the DASHED baby blue lines from the ADL modeling system that shows the predicted price levels.

Now, lets take a look at a current Weekly YM chart to see how the current price anomaly is setting up.  Almost similar to the first price anomaly in the upper example, yet in the opposite direction, the current price anomaly is indicating an incredible 10~14%+ upside price potential within the next 2 to 5 weeks.  We believe this upside potential is being ignored by much of the market because of the recent downside price pressures that have kept a lid on the upside breakout.  We do believe that once that downward sloping YELLOW price channel line is breached, the upside price move will begin and likely be a VERY FAST move up.

Lastly, you might be asking yourself how we reconcile various ADL predictive price levels that could present various or conflicting predictive pricing?  First, please understand that the ADL price modeling system is just one of the tools that we use in our analysis.  Secondly, the data you are not seeing which is only shown to the researchers and analysts is the “predictive probability” of each predicted price level.

We know which levels have a higher degree of probability than others – thus we can use this knowledge to determine which outcome is more likely.  Also, more recent analysis from the ADL pricing model with high degrees of price correlation and probability are, in our opinion, more relevant to the future price levels than older price analysis.  With our ADL predictive modeling system, we can see many days, weeks or months into the future – the trick is to understand how to use it properly.

In closing, with all the fear and emotions running at high levels, we wanted to settle our readers minds a bit with this analysis and these charts.  If you take a look at the predictive price level for this next week, the YM should attempt to move back to near 25,540.  The following week, the YM should be attempting a more aggressive upside move to near 27,500 or higher.  We are just waiting to see that YELLOW price channel line be broken before this price move initiates.

If you want to learn more about our analysis or maybe you just want winning trade alerts, take a look at our Wealth Building Newsletter service and see how we can assist you in finding and executing great trades every month.  We have members from 87 countries that following our daily technical analysis video and trade alerts each week.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

One very important component of the continued research we, www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, conduct into price, price patterns and price rotation is the study and application of Fibonacci price modeling.  As you have seen with some of our other charting and modeling tools, we have invested a great deal of time and energy to create useful price modeling tools to assist us in our daily research and analysis.

Our Fibonacci price modeling tool is another adaptive learning model that is capable of adapting to price rotation by learning from past and current price variances as well as repeated price pattern formations.  This tool is a one of a kind type of project that we covet with a great deal of respect.

Today, we are going to illustrate how this modeling system assists us and how we attempt to use it to identify trading opportunities and longer-term potentials for success.  As of April 24, the markets closed dramatically lower – by almost -2% on average.  This move lower pushed many of the current prices into a unique price pattern that may be very temporary.  We will start by attempting to illustrate the NQ chart with our Fibonacci price modeling system and we want to make one thing very clear….

Today’s downside price rotation, excluding the ES chart, setup a new potential for future bearish trending if the current price is unable to recovery back above the key Fibonacci Bullish Price Level.

Let’s get started with the NQ chart.  The first things we want you to concentrate onto are the YELLOW price channel and the PURPLE price high/low ranges established by price rotation.  It is critical that you understand how price rotation, pure price, sets up all of the analysis that this modeling system completes.  Nothing else is used other than price and time.  The most recent price high and low levels (in most cases) establish the Fibonacci price range.  This is what we use to make trending decisions.

This current NQ chart has rotated lower and is currently telling us that we should expect further downside price activity as long as price stays below the Fibonacci Bullish Price Level.  Although, our ADL price modeling system is warning that the markets will enter a strong upside rally within days.  Thus, it is our opinion that this recent move is a “wash-out” low price rotation that is attempting to fade the longs.  The NQ Fibonacci price high is at 6867 and the Fibonacci price low is at 6307 – watch for these levels to be breached before trend accelerates.

The ES chart is set in a similar price formation to the NQ chart.  Highlighted on this chart are three primary components of our Fibonacci price modeling system; the projected price levels, the Bullish & Bearish Fibonacci key price levels and the key market price rotation markers (tops and bottoms/price rotation points).  Understanding our modeling system is key to your better understanding the research that we provide to you.  On the right side of this chart, we’ve highlighted two key projected price levels  with lines drawn in CYAN (light blue).  We want you to pay special attention to those projected price levels because they became key support and resistance just a few weeks ago.  If you understand the significance of this example, you’ll begin to see how past price rotations attempt to predict future price turning points using advanced Fibonacci concepts and theory.

IMPORTANT NOTE: If all of this is a little to advanced to understand, that’s ok too. Maybe you don’t want to understand or learn, and just want nothing but our best trade setups and alerts? Well, members can have our SMS trade alerts so they get only our Buy, Stop, and Profit Taking alerts. Meaning you have trade like a pro and only spend 10-30 minutes a weak to adjust a position or enter a new one as you receive an alert!

This ES chart is showing a similar analysis to that of the NQ – expect continued bearish price action unless the current Bullish Fibonacci price level is breached @ 2718.50.  Again, we believe this current downside price move is a “wash-out” low price rotation within a bullish trend.  One of the reasons we believe this to be the case is clear if you understand price rotation.  Look at the entirety of the move recent price rotation.  After establishing the key low price bottom, price has failed to attempt to take out that low.

Remember, price must always attempt to establish new highs or new lows through price rotation within Fibonacci theory.  Therefore, until that low is breached, and as long as new higher low has been created, price is failing to commit to new lower lows.  Thus, it must be attempting to commit to higher highs.  The ES Fibonacci price high is at 2718.50 and the Fibonacci price low is at 2552.00.

The YM chart below provides the clearest picture, in our opinion, of the detailed Fibonacci price rotation process.  Very similar setups in price are still in place between all three charts.  Yet, the price rotation on the YM chart provided clear confirmation that price was attempting to advance rather than collapse recently.  The Bullish Fibonacci Price Level on the right side of the chart was breached and confirmed three weeks ago with a close above 24135.  The NQ and ES did not achieve this key price element in Fibonacci theory.

Additionally, the BLUE downside price projection point was very shallow compared to the recent peak high. This is typically a sign that any price rotation may be shallow as well and short lived.  As of the recent closing, the current close is below the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level, thus we are expecting some potential weakness in price until it advanced back above this level.  Yet, our believe that this “wash-out low” is a process of targeting near priced longs is still valid.  If, at the end of this week, price is back above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level, we will have further confirmation that this downside move was just a “wash-out low”.  The YM Fibonacci price high is at 24827 and the Fibonacci price low is at 23306.

Lastly, we are going to show you a much longer term Monthly SPY chart running our Fibonacci price modeling system for comparison.

When you look at this chart below and compare the price action you see to the previous chart, remember this Monthly chart is really the key to the longer term price potential.  As of right now, the current price is below the Bearish Fibonacci Price Level, which indicates a reason to be concerned with potentially further downside price activity.  Yet, the projected Fibonacci price levels have clearly defined support and resistance at, or very near to, the current price rotational high and low.  This would indicate that the current price rotation is within expected ranges and until a new closing price low is established below the 253.70 level.  Any downward price move will find support near 246.30 (the GREEN projected price level).

Price MUST advance +4% from current levels to abate any downside pressure resulting from this recent move.  In other words, we need to see a solid price advance over the next 5+ trading days, before the end of April, to technically qualify any further advance higher based on this Monthly Fibonacci modeling system.  Of course, the Daily and Weekly models will tell us a much faster and more detailed shorter-term Fibonacci price model for this same price rotation.

We’ve received hundreds of comments regarding our Adaptive Predictive Learning (ADL) price modeling system and we love to hear how all of your are enjoying our research.  This Fibonacci price modeling system, once you understand it as well as we do, is a very powerful price modeling tool that helps us identify unique opportunities in the markets for our clients.  Each of these tools provide unique benefits and understanding as to what to expect in the future.  We try to condense all of this into easy to understand daily updates for all of our valued members so you don’t have to spend decades trying to learn and understand all of this.

Currently, our ADL price modeling system is telling us the markets will attempt to rocket higher within 3~5+ weeks.  You’ve probably seen that research or can view it on our web site or from our free email newsletter.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system, is warning us that price could fall below support if it does not rally back above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Levels as our ADL model is predicting.  Thus, we are suggesting this current downside price rotation is likely a “wash-out” price low that may become somewhat meaningless in the near future.

Follow our Daily video forecasts and our future research to learn more about how we help our clients find profits in these moves.  We are already positions for what we believe will be the best opportunities for success with our members.  Join us and learn how we can help you find greater success – visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Our recent silver analysis could not have been more accurate.  Please take a minute to read it before you continue reading the rest of this post if you have not already done so. The Silver price breakout, to near $17.20, last week was incredible.  It established a new Fibonacci price trend, established a downward channel price breakout, coincided with a Pennant/Flag price formation breakout and the wave count of this Pennant Flag breakout was perfect.

Our research indicated that after this $17.20 price breakout happened last week, any retracement below $16.75 while price held above support near $16.00 would constitute a “BUY ZONE” where traders could begin accumulating physical metal or equity shares.  The move lower today in Silver, which is related to the US Dollar and Bond yields move today, may be an absolute gift for metals traders.  We mean this could be a “fire sale” type of gift if prices continue to stagnate below $16.50 for a few days.

As much as I would like to tell you that Silver is rocketing higher as we predicted, we have to learn to play these price rotations to our advantage – especially when the markets are handing you opportunities like this.  Again, $16.00 is our support level currently.  Anything below $16.75 and above $16.00 is our  BUY ZONE.  We are waiting to see how the market this week before we make a decision on accumulation, but this looks like an excellent opportunity to consider adding to our existing positions/physical holdings if one has the opportunity.  Remember, the upside potential of this move could be as much as 25~70%.

If you want to know how to take advantage of these moves and stay ahead of the markets, then visit our website to learn how we help our valued subscribers find and execute success every month.  These types of tools are only one component of what we offer our members – we also offer Daily video analysis of the market, advanced research posts, Daily updates and more.  We know we are the only research team that can offer you these types of advanced predictive modeling systems. If you have ever wanted to know what the markets are going to do with relative certainty, join us today.

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We are constantly amazed that our Advanced Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system has been incredibly accurate over the past 7+ months.  Our researchers, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, called the early 2018 rally weeks in advance.  We called the resistance levels and top in late January.  We called a February 21~27 market top formation, called the market bottom on March 28, and last week called the market top to the hour and locked in 17.7% trading a simple 3x index ETF.  Today, we are going to further illustrate the power and capabilities of the ADL price modeling system and what we are expecting over the next 7~10+ trading days.

Part of the power of the ADL price modeling system is the ability to see what the future may include as far as price targets and potential setups.  When price mirrors the targets relatively closely, we assume the ADL predictions were accurate and that price is tracking the ADL predicted targets well enough to not expect many anomalies.  But when price diverges from the ADL predicted targets by a wide range, we experience a “price anomaly” that indicates a very unique opportunity for profits.  Think of these price anomalies as unusual price support or pressure causing price to deviate from the ADL predicted price targets for a short while.  Price should, assuming that the ADL predicted price targets are like future price anchor points, attempt to move towards these future ADL price targets and may move towards them in an aggressive manner.  When the anomaly sets up and the price range is substantial, it usually means that we have a fantastic opportunity for profits setting up as long as price attempts to recover towards the ADL price targets.

Here is our first example, the ES Daily chart.  We’ve highlighted the price anomaly window with a dark red eclipse shape and you should be able to clearly see the +80 pt price gap that is setting up as of the close on Friday, April 20.  If you follow the DASHed ADL predictive price targets on this chart, you will see that prices have been below most of these ADL price targets over the past two weeks and the most recent price levels were expected to drop a bit, but not as deep as the pullback extended today.  This type of setup creates the anomaly pattern we look for as opportunity for a future upside, in this case, move.  Our theory is that price will attempt to re-balance, or track back, to the ADL predicted price targets.  This means we are setting up for a +80 to +100 pt upside move in the ES.

Additionally, the YM chart is showing a similar pattern with a similar ADL anomaly range.  This chart should seem oddly similar to the ES chart.  The ADL price modeling system is showing similar types of future price targets, yet the YM targets are slightly varied from the ES targets.  The ES is expected to rocket higher over the next 2~5+ days where the YM appears to track an immediate +400~500 pt upside move, then stall for a few days, then continue higher for an additional +400~500 pts.  You should be able to see this setup by tracking the YELLOW DASHed ADL predictive price targets on this chart.

We’ll close our this research with a YM Weekly chart to more clearly illustrate what the ADL price modeling system is suggesting for the extended future.  Remember, these ADL predicted price targets go all the way forward to the end of July, 2018 – nearly 3 months into the future.  Yes, we can attempt to see well into the future with the ADL price modeling system and as long as we continue to refresh our analysis for newer, more recent ADL events, we should be able to accurately map out the future of almost any market.

Yet, what is interesting about this Weekly YM chart is that the ADL predictive analysis modeling system took data from 22 historically similar instances of price/technical data, which we call Price DNA mapping, and attempted to predicted the future price targets based on all of this data that tracked quite well over the past 5~6 weeks.  If you study the DASHed levels on this chart, you’ll see that prices tracked these predictive levels almost perfectly over the past 5+ weeks and that the future predicted price targets are all substantially higher than the current price level.  In this case, on this Weekly YM chart, it appears the upside ADL price target levels are +1000~1800 pts higher than the current price.  That would be a fantastic move for LONGs if this move happens.

Yes, the same Daily YM ADL price anomaly is setting up with a +1000 Daily price target, yet the Weekly ADL modeling chart shows us that this upside move may actually be far greater than we expected from the Daily chart.  What should a trader do with this type of information?

That’s right, traders should understand this is an opportunity for a potentially immediate upside move beginning early next week in the US majors.  We believe many traders did not want to hold positions over the weekend after the Syria events last weekend.  We believe last weeks selling was a “washout low” psychological event that is not related to fundamental price dynamics. We believe in our ADL system because it has proven to be extremely accurate over the past 7+ months and we believe this move will execute just as we have described in this research post.

With that said, these broad based market predictions are not nearly as easy to trade and profit from as you think. The fact is, the market has a way to shake you out of positions just before the move you expect to happen takes place. The market manipulates and takes advantage of emotional traders to the extreme.

If you want to know how to take advantage of these moves and profit consistently from the markets, then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our valued subscribers find and execute success every week.  These types of tools are only one component of what we offer our members – we also offer Daily video analysis of the market, advanced research posts, Daily updates and more.  We know we are the only research team that can offer you these types of advanced predictive modeling systems and you can see the value we can offer you.  If you have ever wanted to know what the markets are going to do with relative certainty, then you owe it to yourself to see how we can help you see opportunities more clearly.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

ABOUT TECHNICAL TRADERS LTD:
53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.