The Price of Oil

How did it get here, and where is it going?

By Marin Katusa, Senior Editor, Casey Energy Opportunities

What a difference a year makes.

While March lions and April showers were at work in 2008, so were these factors in the U.S. and global economies:

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained steady above 12,000.

 The leading indicator of existing home sales was down over 21% from the previous year, and the official unemployment rate was just beginning its upward creep by crossing the 5% mark.

 The first official admissions of the “R” word. In early April 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared a 25% chance of a global recession, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that gross domestic product “could even contract slightly.”

 The novelty of bailouts began. Bernanke also assured Congress that the Fed’s emergency authorization of a loan against $29 billion of Bear Stearns assets wasn’t putting taxpayer money at risk: “I feel reasonably confident that we’ll be able to recover all the principal and indeed some interest, and there is some chance of even upside beyond that.”

 The dollar’s six-year slide against the euro, hitting its lowest ever at $1.60 in late April. It also fell below the 7-yuan mark in China for the first time.

 And oil, comfortably above $100/barrel, was heading for its summer crest of $147.

A scant 12 months later, the Dow is trying to stagger back from a plunge to 6,500. Home sales are hinting a possible turnaround, unemployment (even the official, conservative figures) is expected to reach double digits before long, “recession” and “bailout” are household words (often accompanied by four-letter ones), the dollar is recovering… and a barrel of oil is worth half that hundred dollars. Hardly worth pulling out of the ground.

What happened? And even more important for us as investors, what’s going to happen?

The Casey Energy Opportunities team pulled together the pieces of the oil sector picture that other sources tend to scatter or ignore. We’ll give you a broader understanding of the drivers within the oil industry, the markets in which they operate, and how you can use that knowledge to push your profits upward.

The Oil Industry Now: A Rock, a Hard Place, and a Supply Glut That Isn’t

Everyone who drives a car or heats a home with petroleum has welcomed the fall in oil prices from their high in the summer of 2008.

While it’s hard to argue that filling your tank at $2 per gallon is a lot easier on the wallet than $4 or $5 per gallon, the broader economic effects of such low oil prices are troubling.

Leading the concerns is the drop in oil exploration and drilling that accompany a drop in price. Below the $50/barrel mark – and for many companies the bar is closer to $65 even for conventional fields – oil producers typically spend more money getting oil out of the ground than they can recoup by selling it. At the same time, turbulent financial markets have tightened credit. These two factors have pressured producers to allocate exploration budgets away from drilling projects and toward meeting debt obligations and day-to-day operating costs instead.

The plunge in prices has consumed the cash buffers of even the major oil companies. ConocoPhillips, for example, announced in January that along with eliminating 1,300 jobs and writing down $34 billion in assets, it was also planning to cut its 2009 investment budget by 18%. Exploration projects are part of both writedowns and spending cuts. The results of curtailed exploration are two-fold. First, some oil companies will be simply unable to survive the economic crisis. Second, supply in the longer term is being sacrificed to stay afloat now.

Storage facilities are bulging. The chart below shows the contents of the Cushing, OK, storage facility — where NYMEX deliveries take place — have recently doubled from their average 2008 volume. Along with a host of other facilities around the world, it got this way because of an unusually dramatic contango at the beginning of 2009. (A contango is a kind of market inversion, when the current [spot] price dips lower than the future price.)

In January, the spot price of oil plummeted as low as $37/barrel, while futures for July delivery were trading for $52. That meant if an oil company could buy and store product for seven months, it could lay out $37/barrel and be guaranteed a profit of $15 – or 40%, minus costs – in July. And indeed the buying frenzy took off, reinforcing the decision to turn off the drills.

So for the moment, we are artificially flush with oil, and demand has dropped as the global economy will likely shrink for the first time since World War II. It’s no surprise that oil prices have been staying down.

Many analysts say we won’t feel the effects of declining exploration for a few years. But the numbers are emerging already. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), non-OPEC countries demonstrated an average annual growth in supply of 570,000 barrels/day from 2000 through 2007. In contrast, they recorded a drop last year of some 300,000 barrels/day.

At the same time, OPEC appears to be conforming to its production cuts of 4.2 million barrels/day, begun in September 2008. The oil cartel is known to announce cuts that its members don’t actually follow; it’s in their economic best interest, if only in the short term, to sell all they can. But this time, oil has plunged far below levels to sustain their economies. Even Saudi Arabia expects to run a budget deficit this year.

OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world’s oil, would like to see prices around $75/barrel, at least. But the fragile global economy would have a difficult time absorbing such a price at the moment, and the cartel decided against further production cuts when it met in March. In fact, some three weeks later, Saudi Arabia actually announced a price cut on all its grades of crude to European, North American, and Mediterranean markets – a dramatic attempt to spur demand amidst high inventories.

So, entwined as it is with the economy, the oil industry is currently in a conundrum. The fix it requires – higher prices for its product – will choke the framework in which it operates.

At the same time, we’ve got supply problems ahead.

How Did We Get Here Anyway?

Like many aspects of the markets, movements in price are driven partly by real factors and partly by perception. Rags-to-riches-to-rags-to-riches Texas oilwoman Sue Sanders summed it up when she noted wryly in her 1940 autobiography that “nothing succeeds like reports of success.”

Last year’s run-up of oil was no exception: part real, part report. Some of the real factors:

 The weak U.S. dollar. The United States is not the only country that buys oil in U.S. dollars. The price per barrel is pegged to it, in fact. When the dollar is weak, the cost of U.S. exports drops; and indeed by December 2008, the U.S. trade deficit had fallen to its lowest in nearly six years ($39.9 billion, according to U.S. Commerce Department data). However, a weak dollar means it takes more dollars to buy a barrel of oil. Global concerns over the strength of the U.S. economy, including America’s ever-rising level of debt, had undermined the dollar to the point that OPEC members began to murmur about dumping it for the euro or a basket of currencies.

 Geopolitical turbulence in oil-producing countries. The Iraq war, oil-related militancy in Nigeria, and Iran-Israel-U.S. posturing over nuclear issues were hotspots in the first half of 2008. The average nightly news covered casualties in Iraq, but industry watchers tracked attacks on pipelines and oil facilities. Likewise, in Nigeria, sabotage and oil worker kidnappings by militant groups such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) regularly shut down facilities to repair, negotiate, or improve security. And as spring warmed up, so did the war of words between Iran and Israel. By early July, Iran had gone so far to indicate it would move against shipping in the Persian Gulf if attacked. The United States would have moved next, of course… thus driving up the price of oil in the jittery oil markets, which depend on Persian Gulf shipping lanes.

 Unusually low crude and gasoline supplies entering the 2008 summer driving season. In early April, the EIA reported significant drops in supply – gasoline declined by 4.53 million barrels and crude oil by 3.2 million barrels, a one-two blow that surprised and worried industry watchers. Behind the gasoline slump were lower refinery margins, called crack spreads. In mid-March, when refineries would normally be coming off their maintenance schedules to churn out gasoline for summer driving, the margin for turning a barrel of crude into gasoline was negative for the first time in three years. Refineries sought profits in other oil products, and the markets responded to the expected imbalance in supply and demand.

 High demand. China is a stand-out here, and for more than its usual energy appetite. China has a penchant for aiming to break records – from its goals in five-year plans and building projects to its haul of Olympic medals – and in the first half of 2008, it was visited by some dramatic examples: a great earthquake and major snowstorms, events that disrupted the country’s energy industry. Combine that with the fact that China was also preparing for the Beijing Olympics in August, and it’s easy to understand why it was buying oil very heavily until mid-summer.

On the perception side of price drivers, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the market push stayed strong in the face of increasingly gloomy economic data. Casey Research was earlier than most in predicting the economic crash (we published reports such as “The Coming Currency Crisis” in June 2006), but by spring 2008, even officialdom was dancing around the word recession.

Normally, news of burgeoning foreclosures, plummeting home sales, spiking personal and business bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and other economic indicators would tend to exert a bearish influence. After all, consumers generate 70% of U.S. economic activity, and if they stop or cut back on driving to work or the shopping mall, telephone relatives or business partners instead of flying out to see them, reduce purchases of items containing plastics, turn down the thermostat, and other weather-the-storm measures, oil consumption should decline.

It took months for all these drivers to realign – but as we all know, they did, and then some. The chicken-and-egg debate, whether oil’s sky shot triggered or portended the economic debacle in the closing months of 2008, will require more distance and data to resolve. But it’s true that the dollar had started its comeback by mid-summer, supply had caught up, geopolitics had settled a bit, China backed off on its buying, no major hurricanes hit – but economic realities did.

Meanwhile, Congress jumped up and down and cried “Speculators!” “OPEC!” “Oil producers!” in tidy sound bites.

The Next Big Plays: Where You Need to Be

Oil companies are influenced by the range of market drivers and economic conditions according to size. The junior oil producers, those with market capitalizations of $250 million or less, have the small-business advantage of flexibility when times are good. These times aren’t good, of course, and even well-managed juniors with good projects are in trouble. Their vulnerability is in the credit market. You’ve likely heard of credit lines being revoked and refinancings denied to people with impeccable credit. Now imagine pitching a drill project without a wallet full of assets ready to lay on the table.

Mid-tier producers, with market caps between $250 million to $2 billion, will look to mergers and acquisitions to survive. The majors ($2-20 billion market cap) and Big Oil (over $20 billion) will also be shopping. With low oil prices shutting down exploration, development, and even production, these companies will be looking to replace their reserves instead by purchasing smaller, solid companies with proven production. It’s simply cheaper.

We see two ways to profit from this trend.

First, we buy shares in undervalued, producing companies that are profitable even below $40/barrel, are best of peer, and own large reserves. These are the companies that Big Oil will be looking to acquire. One such company, an oil sands producer, is currently a part of the Casey Energy Opportunities portfolio.

Second, we believe that owning a potential consolidator is the best position. As debt load and low commodity prices overtake them, junior producers will be forced to consolidate their projects. We currently own one such candidate, and are scouting for others with such muscle. Consolidators will be purchasing projects from the bank at 25 to 30 cents on the dollar.

Our tactics have already paid off handsomely in the last six months: all our recent recommendations have been on fire. A few tripled their value, and one generated a return of 540%.

As we’ve seen, supply problems are looming, no matter what timetable of Peak Oil you may believe in. With increased demand inevitably come higher prices. Our approach at Casey Energy Opportunities positions us to take advantage of the trend in both the short and longer term. And we guide our subscribers not only when to buy or sell, but also when to take profits and a “Casey Free Ride” to eliminate risk.

We’d like to offer you the opportunity to kick the tires of Casey Energy Opportunities RISK-FREE for 90 days, with 100% money-back guarantee. Click here to give it a try.

Gold Stocks – the Best Strategy for Portfolio Building

by Jeff Clark, Editor of BIG GOLD

October 27, 2008 was the gold mining sector’s Black Monday, the day nearly every stock hit rock bottom. Hindsight makes it plain they got caught in the violent deleveraging that sucked down every equities market in the world.

The broader markets were of course making year-to-date lows at the same time, and unlike gold stocks, they continued falling after a short intermission. In fact, the Dow fell 2,000 points after Obama was elected. In sharp contrast, the mining stocks went on a tear. Between November ’08 and January ’09, many of our BIG GOLD picks made substantial gains, rising anywhere from 45% to 149%.

This good news isn’t the whole story, of course; many mining stocks saw percentage losses greater than the broader market averages during the Big Selloff. But given the fact that gold stocks started rebounding while the broader markets continued lower, the BIG GOLD portfolio ended the year down 24% while the S&P lost 38%. We were also glad to see our portfolio responded better than the HUI; the broad-based mining index lost 32% on the year. Meanwhile, the demand for physical gold and silver was surging, likely attributed to investors who’d been spooked by the broad meltdown.

We held on to our shares throughout the selloff and advised our readers to do the same – and subsequently watched our stocks rebound mightily. And we fully expect these kinds of surges to repeat as gold pushes higher. Keep in mind that the real mania is yet to come. Once inflation responds to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary foolishness, gold will need a space suit and our miners oxygen masks.

A key point to remember going forward is that gold mining shares constitute a minute fraction of the global equities market, and a small shift in investor interest toward our sector can move gold stocks sharply higher in a big hurry. The market cap of the fifteen largest gold producers in the world — combined — is a paltry $125 billion. That’s barely more than a single company such as General Electric, at $116B; much less than Microsoft ($175B); and waaay less than Exxon Mobil at $400B.

Miners have also had a temporary respite from high energy costs due to the collapse in the price of crude oil. Energy is one of the biggest expenses a miner has to carry. As energy prices came down, the cost of producing gold also declined, fattening the bottom line. Oil is likely to get back to and then beyond $143 per barrel at some point, but not for a while. We doubt it will top $75 this year, which is enormously helpful for our companies.

Recently, gold stocks have outperformed bullion, a trend we’re keeping an eye on and one we’re confident will continue in the future, especially when we see the certain emergence of serious inflation and the dollar resumes its downtrend.

So… what to do now?

What we hope you’ve been doing all along. Our general rules: If you’re already fully committed to this sector, stay the course; you will be well rewarded.

For those with money still to invest, accumulate well-run, sound companies on weakness. Volatility will continue; we expect days and weeks marked by retracement in the prices of even the best companies. The dips will be your buying opportunities. Place below-market bids and let the price come to you. Take positions with half or so of the funds you’ve allotted for this sector, then fill out your portfolio with whatever bargains come your way.

Whether you’re already full-up with gold stocks or are just getting started, you should be well positioned before the all-out mania for gold stocks hits.

The Quandary of Timing

It may surprise some to hear that we are not “all-in” yet with our portfolio. Why? Because our attitude is one of caution, and because we know that our big gains since October could get clawed back, partly or wholly, by another reversal – which would lead to another buying opportunity we wouldn’t want to miss.

But caution can be expensive when the market runs away from you. What if the train has already left the station? In that case, those waiting on a pullback will be disappointed. Just as all below-market bids placed on October 28 of last year went unfilled, so could today’s, or tomorrow’s.

Looking as little as a year out, our money is confidently on our stocks going higher – much higher. We expect the government’s assorted “stimulus” packages to fail to deliver as advertised, and usher in high inflation. This will push gold and gold stocks much higher.

But the question is, if the broader markets head lower, will gold stocks follow them down or ride on gold’s coattails?

That question leaves you in a quandary only if you’re looking at the short term. Or if you get emotional about this stuff. Those with no stomach left after the gut-wrenching selloff into last October probably shouldn’t deviate from the cautious strategy outlined above. If you’re one of those who see the big picture and ignore the gyrations along the way – which is what Doug Casey does – then you’re drawn to the idea of placing a bet when you judge that the odds are in your favor. It’s when you see the price of something is far less than its value that you can have the confidence to load up, whether that’s today or perhaps later this summer.

Whether you buy today or wait in hopes of a pullback, we believe you’ll be looking at profits a year from now. In the big picture, our stocks are still deeply undervalued, even after so many of them have doubled off their lows. But could they retreat again? In a general market pullback, definitely. Could they tread water for a while? Certainly. And could they leave present levels in the dust and double again from here? Absolutely.

There are times when one must put away the crystal ball and simply prepare for more than one scenario. This is one of them. Whether you respond more conservatively or more aggressively, keep your eye on the endgame. We think you’ll be glad you did.

Prudent precious metals strategies for conservative investors – that’s what BIG GOLD is all about. And now that the gold price is going up again, you shouldn’t wait to jump on the bandwagon. Read in our latest report why super-low interest rates mean we could see $1,500/oz gold this year – click here to learn more.

Precious Metals Trading Charts for Gold Silver and Oil

Thursday Night Trading Charts
I have put together a short update just so you can see were we stand for gold, silver and oil at these current price levels.

Trading Report & Charts: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/PreciousMetalsTradingNewsletterApril23.php

Just to let you know the e-book which Jerry Grenough & I put together on New World Order Economics, What You Can Do To Protect Yourself – Crisis Investing For 2009 is now available in hard copy.

Hard Copy Book: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/eBook-CrisisInvestingFor2009.php

ENERGIES: June crude oil closed up $0.58 at $49.43 a
barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Crude oil
bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The
next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $44.00.

PRESCIOUS METALS: June gold futures closed up $14.50 at $907.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today on
short covering and fresh speculative buying and amid a
weaker U.S. dollar. Prices did hit a fresh three-week high
today as bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. Prices are still in a two-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart, however.

May silver futures closed up 49.0 cents at $12.795 an ounce
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering and fresh speculative buying. Bulls gained some
fresh upside near-term technical momentum today as bulls
and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

April 22 – Gold, Silver & Oil Trading Update

Wednesday Night Market Update:

Silver and gold have been moving higher the past few days as the broad market starts to show signs of exhaustion and becoming unstable with large intraday swings. If you take a look at the SPY or DIA intraday charts you will see the heavy sell off into the close which is a bearish sign. That says to me that smart money is getting out early as they expect prices to drop very soon.

Its important to note that when we get tops in the broad market it’s generally are slower to roll over and also creates a lot of this whipsaw action in prices which we saw today. I think we will see a healthy pullback starting any day. If this happens gold and silver should move higher and with any luck we will have a buy signal for them.

Oil move a little higher today but nothing to write home about.

Many of you have asked about the TZA trade. I did not post that trade properly and most of you did not enter into the position. I know many of you who did trade it made some good money on Monday and those still holding the trade are at break even or have a small profit as of the close today.

I will be introducing some new trading signals for the broad market. Any index fund can be traded like SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQQ, or you can trade the leveraged funds like QID, DXD, SDS, TZA, TNA, FAS, FAZ and many others. These new trading signals require buying at the close as well but most of the time we will not wait for the MACD or trend line breakouts. These are overbought and over sold market condition trades. They can vary in length from 1 day to 6 weeks. Similar to the move the broad market just had from the market low/bottom in March till now.

Once I have all the information available I will post it in the members area of the website for your to understand it better.

METALS:
June gold futures closed up $7.30 at $890.00
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering and amid a weaker U.S. dollar. The gold bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart.

May silver futures closed up 21.0 cents at $12.27 an ounce
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. A seven-week-old downtrend is
still in place on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage.

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Press Release, New World Order Economic Crisis Investing in 2009

PRESS RELEASE – FACT SHEET ON:

NEW WORLD ORDER ECONOMICS

WHAT YOU CAN DO TO PROTECT YOURSELF – Crisis Investing in 2009

Book Title: As above

Publisher: Taylor Forensics

Price: $ 24.95

Type of Book: eBook

Crisis Investing in 2009 Webpage and Provided by Chris Vermeulen – TheGoldAndOilGuy:

J.T. Grenough – New World Order Economics – Crisis Investing in 2009

Insert from Introduction:

INTRODUCTION FROM THE AUTHOR – Jerry Grenough

“There’s no shortcut to any destination worth going.” UNKNOWN

I wrote this book (New World Order Economics – What You Can Do To Protect Yourself) for a major demographic section of the country – investors who are concerned about their future and their holdings. At recent dinners (anniversaries and weddings I’ve attended) with large groups of people, the most talked-about topic is the economy and investments. Everyone is concerned without exception. This book is in-depth and leading edge material and a must-have for anyone with any size of portfolio.

I’ve seen a dearth of material on the market and very few people have a one-stop all-inclusive source of material on international, non-traditional investing that can protect them quite well from the current shock and awe of Wall Street. This book will be a must-have, a necessity – for economic survival as the next seven-nine years of this L-shaped credit bubble goes through stages until we reach the far side.

I thought of the title and just to see if it had been requested (via Google), I entered the first keywords of the title and found to my amazement 18,200,000 people who have entered these exact key words in a search. I’m not talking search results but the number of people who have searched with these words – New World Order Economics. If you enter New World Order Economic you have even a more amazing discovery – 28,700,000 people have searched using that nomenclature. That tells me there is an absolutely gigantic number of people out there who are looking for answers.

This book covers:

Ø Oil & Geopolitics

Ø Gold Shares Around The World

Ø Hard Currencies & International Currency Funds

Ø A Resource Chapter on Gold, Silver, Mining & Energy

Ø Offshore Real Estate Investing – Safe Havens

Ø Hedge and Short Fund Investing Strategies

Ø Gold Funds and Exchange Traded Funds

Ø Creative Non-Paradigm Planning

I have not found any other books that allow the investor to safely re-balance their portfolio from their home office, without leaving there. It is written as an eBook, for ease of search ability (just enter Ctrl F and you can find any search term or topic you want), and for ease of research ability – since investing is a continuous process this book has over seventy key links to major sites you will need from time to time for updates. It also is formatted to allow printing if you wish.

The target audience is American investors. However, the book may appeal to the British and European audience as well. The old axiom of “buy and hold” obviously just doesn’t cut it any more.

I’ve previously published a 90,000 word nonfiction book (copyright now owned by Thomson Reuters) I wrote for ‘scholarly’ purposes and not for royalties, designed for reading by corporate CEOs. I currently hold position at a large privately-held conglomerate dealing with Corporate Risks & Investment Risks in terms of corporate treasury holdings and various other areas. I was previously with First American as a Regional Audit Director under the recently passed Sarbanes Oxley legislation.

I am not an Investment Advisor and thus have no self-interests. I’m a writer and a researcher and that’s what you need right now.

Author: JT Grenough

Publication Date: March 2, 2009

Email contact: TaylorForensics@aol.com

Ordering Procedure: From the web page: Upon receipt of a check or money order for $ 12.95 accompanied by the email address of the individual, we email the PDF eBook the same week. The book is priced reasonably and delivery is in a streamlined format.

Author’s Bio:

JT Grenough has also written a book “Protecting Your Company Against Civil and Criminal Liability” and holds position as Assistant Director of Internal Audit for a privately-held conglomerate. He can be reached at TaylorForensics@aol.com.

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Free Weekend Trading Analysis for Gold & Oil

Rising Commodities, Falling Stocks & Risk Reward Ratio

Trading Risk/Reward

The past few months have been absolutely crazy in the financial markets. Financial advisors and banks are taking a beating from both the market condition and clients as individuals around the world are losing 30+ of their investments. We have seen oil prices drop over $110 per barrel from the high (73% decline), and the US dollar tumbled down to 71 and rebounded to 88 (23% gain) all in the mater of months.

Risk Management is what is needed if we want to stay in the game over the long term. Follow strict risk/reward rules is a must so that we don’t not get caught chasing stocks and funds only to have them turn around on us a few days later.

Focusing on keeping risk low for potential trades is crucial for turning a profit over the long run. In short I look for a basket of indicators including candle patterns and volume to be in favor when buying or selling a stock or fund. When a fund generates a buy signal I wait for a low risk entry point near my support or resistance level depending if I am looking to go long or short. I need to see a perfect setup so that the odds are favoring my side. Only then will I take a stab at the market. The biggest issue with this is that I do miss a lot of good trades, but the key here is that most of my trades are profitable and that is what makes it so powerful. I would rather make 20 trades a year, than 150 trades and make the same profits.

This Weeks Analysis on Gold

Gold continued its push higher last week getting a lot of investors and traders all excited. The daily chart does look strong and it is currently on a buy signal. But buying at this level is much too high of a risk.  The price of gold is trading at the top of its 4 month trading range which previously led to a 20% selloff in bullion. Our support trend line is 10% away from the price of gold making it out of reach still. I trade reversals when risk is only 3% from my stop/support price.

Daily Gold GLD Chart


Gold Stocks

Gold stocks have been struggling to move higher and last Friday gold made a nice move higher while gold stocks sold down. My last article talked about how trading gold (GLD) may be a better investment then gold stocks right now simply because of the bearish broad market. The broad market looks like it’s about to make another leg lower and when the broad market sells off, it pulls all stocks with it. The daily chart of the HUI Gold Bugs Index shows precious metal stocks moving sideways while gold pushed higher. When gold stocks start to underperform the price of gold I tighten my stops and mentally prepare myself for gold to pull back. The smart money always seems to move in and out of stocks faster than the commodity which is a topic I mentioned in a previous report as well.

Gold Bugs Index Daily Chart

 

Crude Oil Analysis

Crude Oil has been under continuous selling pressure for the past 7 months and this is the first buy signal I have had for it since it topped back in July 2008. The weekly chart is very close to a buy signal. If you look at the weekly chart of USO crude oil fund you will see that volume has shot through the roof which generally indicates a turning point. Also the MACD indicator is about to cross which will put this fund on a buy signal if things go well all of next week. The support trend line is trending up slightly and the down trend line is holding the price inside a small triangle. If the price breaks out and all my indicators are putting the odds in favor of a long trade, then we will be looking for a buy point on the weekly chart in the next few weeks. The weekly trading signals are good for intermediate and long term traders.  

Crude Oil (USO) Weekly Trading Chart

Conclusion:

The broad markets continued to move lower last week as it remains in a long term bear market. For those looking to take advantage of gold, silver and oil movements I recommend sticking with the commodity funds as they can increase in value while the broad market is selling off. The daily chart of the hui gold bugs index shows this clearly as gold stocks in general are underperforming the price of gold right now. There is an opportunity for oil to make a move higher if things come together in the next couple of weeks but until then we will be patient and let the trade come to us.

If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email. My passion is to help others and for us all to make money together with little down side risk.

I look forward to hearing from you soon!

Chris Vermeulen

The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold, Silver & Oil Newsletter Update Jan 25th

GOLD TRADING

April gold closed sharply higher on Friday and above December’s high crossing at 892.20 thereby renewing the rally off October’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week’s rally, October’s high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 842.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 905.50. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 938.20. First support is today’s low crossing at 853.80. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 842.60.

Gold Trading Signals – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

SILVER TRADING

March silver closed higher on Friday and above the upper boundary of this fall’s trading range crossing at 11.770. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.047 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 12.075. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.047. Second support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 10.320.  

CRUDE OIL TRADING

March crude oil closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.09 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s rally, this month’s high crossing at 54.74 is the next upside target. Closes below December’s low crossing at 38.00 would open the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 30.00 later this winter. First resistance is today’s high crossing at 47.00. Second
resistance is this month high crossing at 54.74. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 39.11. Second support is December’s low crossing at 38.00.

Gold Trading Signals – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen

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Monday Jan 12 – Precious Metals & Oil Update

Special Swing Trading Report on Gold, Silver & Oil – CLICK HERE

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week’s decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week’s decline, trendline support drawn off the November-December lows crossing near 804.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 865.50 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 892.00. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 938.80. First
support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 836.00. Second support is trading line support crossing near 804.60.

March silver closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.908 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October’s low, the reaction high crossing at 12.230 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday’s high crossing at 11.770. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.230. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.908. Second support is Monday’s low crossing at 10.570. 

ENERGY MARKET
February crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extended Thursday’s breakout below the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.98. Today’s low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. The door is open for additional weakness and a possible test of last week’s low. Closes below last Wednesday’s low crossing at 36.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off December’s low, the reaction high crossing at 52.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.34. Second resistance is Tuesday’s high crossing at 50.47. First support is today’s low crossing at 39.38. Second support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 36.94.