If you follow the headline news, read multiple articles a day from different sources on the markets, and are human then you are likely underperforming the market in which you are trying to beat like gold, miners, the SP500 index or whatever it may be.
The information I talk about below and in this video should be a real eye opener for those have not seen technical analysis in action, just how clear the we can see what the stock market, bonds, metals, oil and more will do next. Even at a time like this when the markets are gyrating all over hte place from week to week, we can still gauge our risk and be a winner.
No matter where I go when someone asks me what I do for a living, the person asking has the same “Deer in the headlights” look on their face. I am a technical analyst and trade stocks and commodities for a living with zero external input other than what the price chart of an asset class has painted on the chart.
Most people have never heard of technical analysis for trading or investing, and those that have heard about it think its some type of VooDoo and holds little value. The reality is technical analysis outperforms most of those who trade based on news, earnings, economic data etc…
Why? because all those things are very random data points and unpredictable. If they are important big/smart/insider money has moved into position to take advantage of this before the information becomes public. This is why good news for stocks gets sold into once released for example.
I started trading stocks when I was 16 years old in high school and fall in love with reading charts. Now, 23 years later I have no doubt in my mind technical analysis and trading systems are the absolute best way to trade and invest for growth. Dont get me wrong I spent years digging through company perspectives, reports, press releases and a few years of doing that was almost enough to make me hate trading as it become more like a job and less profitable.
The analysis presented below covers the SP500, Bond, Utilities, Gold, Silver, Oil, and even Bitcoin. This is the analysis I share very day before the opening bell to keep you up to date with current market trends, potentially explosive moves, and set you expectations so you do not become overly emotional and exit a trade early from fear, or excitement.
THIS HAPPENED LATER THAT SAME DAY – WASHOUT LOW
In the video above I talked about how the SP500 was setting critical support that day, and I did this before the opening bell at 9 am. We just take a look at what the market likes to do intraday with the price to shake traders out of their position and trigger their stop-loss orders just before a market reversal.
I live and die by these three rules for my technical trading
1. IDENTIFY TREND DIRECTION
Trends are more likely to continue then they are to reverse. Draw trend lines on the long-term and short-term charts.
2. FIND SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
Identify critical areas of support and resistance on the price charts. Calculate Fibonacci percent retracements, advancement levels, and other measured moves.
3. TIME CYCLES & SENTIMENT
Use cycle analysis, investor sentiment, volatility, panic selling, greed buying, and price patterns to form accurate price forecasts to use for trading. Opt-in to our free market trend forecast newsletter
REACHING THE CHARTS IS ONLY HALF THE EQUATION
Focus Just On The Charts and Ignore All Other Data/Opinions or else you’ll end up with analysis paralysis.
Traders contact me every day confused about which direction to trade. I can tell a couple things very quickly about their issues depending on how they state their problem or question, and its generally a simple fix, or answer that will get them back on track but analysis paralysis is one of the most common issues.
The second half the equation for trading success is a topic most traders turn a blind eye to because it seems confusing, and, or boring. Risk management is the key to long term success and a portfolio value that always goes up and to the right. Believe it or not, its super simple, takes seconds to figure out what position size you should take in any given stock or ETF trade.
In a future post, I am going to talk about how you can take half the financial risk while making 8x more profits. Stay Tuned!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/161.png590760adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-26 14:36:522019-09-26 14:36:52News and Emotions Aside, This Is Where Stocks and Metals Are Headed
We believe the current capital shift in the US stock market may be settling into the Technology sector as investors move away from growth and into value. Technology has recently recovered very nicely from the late December 2018 lows and is currently setting up a very eerily similar pattern across multiple charts.
If our analysis is correct, we believe the Technology sector may be setting up for a downside price breakdown near the APEX of these Pennant/Flag formations that appear in our charts. Near recent, all-time highs, this downside breakdown could be rather large in size, possibly as much as -20% to -35% or more, and could result in a global stock market decline that could shock most investors/traders.
The economic data that has recently been announced in the US continues to show moderate strength overall. The jobs numbers are decent. The consumer is still moderately active and we are getting into the Christmas Rally season. Yet we are also in the midst of a Presidential Election cycle that continues to heat up and drive almost daily new headlines. Our opinion is that the US consumer will become fixated on the political theater while we get closer to the November 2020 elections and may curb Christmas/holiday spending if news/perspective suddenly darken.
One of the first sectors we believe could break is the Technology sector – where foreign investors have poured billions into this sector while chasing price gains and to protect against foreign currency devaluation. Once investors determine Technology is no longer “safe”, then a downside price event (true price exploration) will likely happen and we are concerned the downside risks could be much greater than 20~25%.
This AMD weekly chart provides one of the clearest pictures of the tight Pennant/Flag formation setting up in price. After a Double-Top type of formation near $35, any further price advance was rejected near $36. The current tight price rotation after the August 2019 peak suggests a very tight Pennant/Flag formation is setting up. If our analysis is correct, the APEX/breakout/breakdown event is only a few days away. Our count of the Pennant rotation suggests the breakdown move (lower) is the most likely outcome.
This AMZN chart highlights a similar pattern to the AMD chart. Although the current Pennant/Flag formation is a little more defined, the structure is still the same. An August 2019 high after a Double-Top formation, downward price rotation after the August 2019 peak and a clear APEX setting up RIGHT NOW. The downside risk in AMZN is clearly a drop to near previous support (near $1310) – -20% or more.
GOOG provides a very clear example of the price volatility that is setting up a major Pennant/Flag formation.. Although the current setup is broader than the previous two examples, the potential for a breakdown event in GOOG is still strong. The Double-Top pattern near $1280 provides clear resistance. The recent narrowing price channel sets up a very clear Pennant/Flag formation. We believe the downside price move in GOOG will initially target the lower price channel, then break that channel and continue lower.
Netflix has already broken below the lower price channel. This is what brought this entire sector to our attention recently. If Netflix continues lower, it could draw the entire Technology sector and US major indexes much lower over the next few days/weeks. The downside price risk in Netflix is easily -25% to -45% – or more.
Our Custom Technology Index chart shows how the overall Technology sector is struggling to stay above the lower price channel. Our concern is that one or more of the major technology firms may break the lower Pennant channel and attempt to start a breakdown in the US stock market. If this is the case, then a panic may setup in the markets where investors dump technology very quickly.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Skilled technical traders are adept at finding ways to profit from nearly any price trends. A quick trade in TECS or an Inverse NASDAQ ETF would allow many skilled traders to attempt to profit from this APEX/breakdown potential. We don’t have confirmation of the breakdown event just yet, but it certainly appears that the Technology sector could come under some severe pressure over the next 30+ days
Also, take a look at all my precious metals trade signals this year (2019) with a total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter of 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you bought and held GDXJ gold miners ETF.
My point here is that no matter how much you love metals or technology stocks (and I LOVE them both), you do not need to always be in a position with them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are life-changing events in a good way if traded correctly.
NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/130.png484850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-24 09:06:572019-09-24 09:06:57Is The Technology Sector about to break lower?
We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes. The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event). The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.
It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020. This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year. Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend. We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend. We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.
CUSTOM TECHNOLOGY WEEKLY INDEX CHART
This Custom Technology Index chart highlights the Wedge formation that is one of our main concerns. The Technology sector is one of the most heavily weighted sectors in the US stock market and the one that typically has the highest price to earnings multiple. Over the past 5+ years, billions have poured into the Technology sector chasing the rally and the security of the US stock market/US Dollar. A breakdown in this sector (like the DOT COM crash) could be devastating for the global markets. As you can see, the price is already very close to the lower price channel and could breakdown within the next 2 to 5+ weeks. Pay attention to weakness in the NASDAQ and/or the technology sector overall.
MONTHLY S&P 500 CHART
This S&P 500 chart highlights the rising Wedge formation that is set up and nearly complete. This Monthly chart also highlights the extended volatility within the global markets compared to levels prior to 2018. It is our opinion that the Apex of this Wedge will result in a breakdown/price reversion event targeting levels below 2600 on the SPX. This reversion could extend to levels below 2000 on extended price weakness. Our opinion is that the bottom will form sometime between December 2019 and April 2020 where a new Wedge formation will setup before reaching the Apex and starting a new upside price trend near August/October 2020.
We prepared for a very volatile price rotation/reversion event as these Wedges reach their Apex moment. Skilled technical traders should be able to find lots of opportunity for profits over the next 6+ months with these big price rotations.
WEEKLY US DOLLAR CHART
The US Dollar will likely rotate within the Magenta price channel as this has continued to provide very clear price support over the past 20+ months. We don’t believe the US Dollar will decline by more than 5% to 7% throughout the reversion event. The fact is that the US Dollar has regained a level of dominance within the world and the US Dollar may continue to strengthen for many months into the future.
Remember, these reversion events are essential for proper price exploration and future price trends to establish. They are fundamental to all price activity. A healthy price rotation will allow for future trends to establish and mature well into 2021~2024. The current Wedge formations must complete and the Apex rotation must happen in order for price to conduct “true price exploration” and “true price valuation”. From these levels, price will establish a new price trend that may continue for many years into the future.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
We strongly suggest all readers consider the risks of their open portfolio positions and take steps to protect against any unwanted risk exposure. As we are suggesting, we believe the Apex event will begin within 2 to 4+ weeks – possibly sooner. If you want to know what we are advising our clients about this event, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong sie of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/120.png484850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-24 08:43:562019-09-24 08:43:56The Equities Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
VIX INDEX FIBONACCI UPSIDE TARGETS CHART
Our VIX chart highlights what we expect in terms of the potential upside price volatility in the US stock market. You can see we expected the VIX price to decline after the peak in early August 2019, then bottom near August 20~21 and attempt a move higher (related to our August 19 breakdown expectations). This breakdown never happened as news events pushed the general markets higher – abating the spike in the VIX we were expecting. Our further expectations were that VIX would cycle lower near the end of August 2019 and into very early September 2019 before setting up a bottom near 24 and extending higher. Obviously, our expected levels were off by quite a bit, but the rotation in the VIX continues to align with our rotational cycles.
Therefore, we believe the potential for an upside price move in the VIX is still very valid, especially given the events of last weekend and the continued trade talks, market fragility and potential for major news events. We believe the VIX may be starting an upward price cycle that could push it well past 21~24 should the US stock markets rotate lower or contract.
SP500 INDEX WEEKLY ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL) CHART
Our ES Weekly Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) chart highlights why we believe an extended volatility range exists over the next 60+ days and why we believe a rotation of 8 to 12% is a real possibility in the US stock market/major indexes. Our ADL predictive modeling system is very useful because it highlights where price may attempt to target out into the future based on a proprietary price mapping/data mining solution. The purpose of this tool is to map historical price activity by unique price pattern, technical data and categories, learn from the past and attempt to use this data to predict the future. We’ve found it to be extremely valuable in our research.
This ES Weekly ADL chart suggests an 8 to 12% price range is set up in the US stock markets over the next 60+ days. This suggests that and price weakness or external news event could send the US stock market much lower before finding any real support. Any absence of this breakdown event or crisis-type news event would suggest that prices will attempt to drift moderately higher over the next 60+ days.
In other words, there is a very real potential for a potentially big downside price rotation currently set up in the markets. That potential vanishes in early November 2019 as the ADL predictive modeling system suggests a more narrow target range for the price with an upside price bias driving markets to potentially new all-time highs.
CONCLUDING THOUGHT:
Get ready for some really great trading opportunities over the next 4+ months. Any downside price rotation will present a very clear buying opportunity for skilled technical traders and members of our ETF Wealth Building Newsletteras we lead into the November/December market rally (Christmas Rally). This means we must continue to be cautious of extended volatility and play these price rotations with a strong focus on managing risk before the November/December rally sets up to close out 2019.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/11.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-17 13:15:422019-09-17 13:15:42VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means
The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets. Particularly, throughout the foreign markets. Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar. Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.
12 Month Capital Shift Seen in Currencies
As we have been suggesting over the past 12+ months, a capital shift continues to play out in the global markets where capital is actively seeking the best, most secure locations for investment and we believe that will result in strength in mature global economies. Take a look at this chart of various foreign currencies to understand how this capital shift process is really playing out across the globe. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
Japan, Canada, Switzerland are all experiencing moderate price weakness against the US Dollar – yet these mature economies are fairing better than many others. The relationship between the EUR and the GPB appears to be relatively stable as both currencies have dramatically weakened over the past 16+ months – almost in perfect alignment. Comparatively, the other currencies within this display have experienced dramatic price weakness over the past 4+ years in relationship to the US Dollar and their associated PAIR currencies.
Gold Price Comparison In Other Currencies
The recent upside price move in precious metals exasperates the issue of localized consumption/acquisition of Gold/Silver as pricing pressures continue to push local pricing higher and higher. We are still very early in the bullish price cycle for precious metals. As increased fear and greed enter the markets over the next 15+ months, we believe the scramble to acquire physical metals and market positions will continue to increase even further.
These Gold Price Comparison charts, below, show just how dramatic the upward price move has been for foreign investors in local currencies. In US Dollar terms, Gold has risen just over 33% (approx: $350 USD). In Canadian Dollar terms, it has risen 30% over the past year (approx: $475 CAD). In Australian Dollar terms, it has risen just over 34% (approx: $590 AUD). In Chinese Yuan terms, it has risen just over 36% (approx: $$2,965 CNY). In Indian Rupee terms, it has risen just over 29% (approx: $2,545 INR). The reality is that precious metals have gotten very expensive for foreign investors in local currencies – and this is just starting to the metals rally.
The primary reason for this is the continued capital shift that has been taking place over the past 2 to 4+ years. As the global markets entered a period where commodity prices started collapsing (2014 in Oil), the global markets started shifting away from emerging markets and risky assets/investments. The hunt for more secure investment sources was on.
When Oil bottomed in early 2016, a reprieve in investor sentiment settled into the markets where expansion into more risky assets took place. All of this changed with the top formation in the US stock market in early 2018 and the downside price rotation in Oil in October 2018. Now, as precious metals start to rally and clearly illustrate that fear and greed are entering the markets, the continued hunt for secure, mature economic environments continue at a record pace.
In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe the global markets are just starting a dramatic shift that will likely continue to unfold throughout the next 24+ months and why we believe it is important for all skilled technical traders to understand the risks that are present in the current global markets. This is not your simple trending global market any longer (think pre-2014) – this is a BEAST.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/40.png472850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-11 11:33:382019-09-11 11:33:38Metals & The US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I
It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week. After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York. The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet. The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting. One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months. This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.
Many months ago we authored an article about the US Presidential election cycle and how that event plays into market uncertainty and price activity. We are currently entering the prime span of time where price rotation and volatility because of this election event should take place. This “price malaise” typically happens about 16 months before the election date. As we move closer to the elections, the markets typically become much more volatile and enter a period where the price tends to consolidate near recent lows or establish moderate new lows as attention shifts away from the economy and towards the election news.
If you are serious about trading, this is when you want to pay very close attention to the various market sectors and understand that opportunities may be very short and sweet for profits.
Mid Cap Stock Index 30 Minute Chart Pattern
This first chart is the MC (S&P 400 Midcap) which shows how price strength in this sector moved against the overall price trend of the ES, YM, and others. From the start of trading, the MC appeared to have a stronger upside price bias than the other US major market sectors. This may mean that traders are finding real value in the Midcap sector and are stepping back into this sector thinking it may have some real opportunity for growth.
Transportation Index – 30 Minute Chart
Additionally, the Transportation Index moved higher in a similar structure. The Transportation Index typically leads the US stock market by 3 to 6 months as an indicator of future price expectations related to the need for trucks, rail, shipping, and other economic-related activities. More need for shipping/transportation solutions means a more active economy. A more active economy means more buying and selling of goods, services, and other items. Thus, if the Transportation Index can break recent high levels and begin a new upside price move, it would be a very clear sign that the US economy is strengthening and that the US major indexes may begin a new upside price move soon.
VIX – Volatility Index 30 Minute Chart
The VIX, on the other hand, is still showing us that price volatility has not vanished quite yet. The VIX started moving higher early in trading and continues to push a bit higher right now. If the VIX moves back above 18 or 19 quickly, the we are likely going to see increased volatility in certain sectors of the market which could present real problems for traders. As long as the VIX stays below 18, then the volatility may stay a bit muted going forward.
Pay attention to the VIX and what happens to the major stock indexes over the next 2+ weeks. Trade accordingly. This is not your simple, safe trending market any longer. This is larger volatility with increased risks.
If you are not a very skilled technical trader that understands risks and position sizing, then this market is probably not for you. This is where you will likely chew through your account trying to run longer-term setups in a very choppy market environment.
Volatility is key. Until the VIX settles back down below 12, we are going to continue to experience bigger, more volatile price rotations. Some may be as large as 2% or 3% as news hits. This is why we must understand the risks that are at play here and how to protect our assets from losses. Remember, you don’t have to be in a trade all the time in order to profit from the markets. Watch for the proper setups and wait for the proper entry point before this market chews you up and spits you out.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/30-1.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-10 10:45:332019-09-10 10:45:33Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future
Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.
August 6th, 2019: NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL – DIVERGING SETUPS FOR TECHNICAL TRADERS
At that time, we wrote that we expected Crude oil to break lower from the $62 ppb level and target $55, then $49 based on our original Crude Oil research from May 21, 2019.
Additionally, on July 29, 2019, we authored and posted this article suggesting that Crude Oil would begin a downside move from $55 to levels near $50 :
All of this research was related to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) research post from July 10, 2019: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggest-oil-headed-much-lower-by-early-2020/
This incredible predictive modeling research suggested that Oil would move dramatically lower towards the $50 level, then stall near $50 to $55+ through September and October. Ultimately breaking lower in late October/November to levels near or below $40.
Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis
Our researchers believe Crude Oil could become very volatile as price nears the apex of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up. This Daily chart highlights the attempted “scouting party” price rotation above the price resistance channel. The news over the past holiday weekend suggests the global economy may not see any real bump in activity over the next 12+ months and we believe this aligns with our longer-term research that Oil should target the sub $40 price level before the end of 2019 and potentially fall to levels below $30 in early 2020.
Crude Oil Weekly Chart Analysis
We believe the key to all of this price rotation is the $50.50 level and what price does over the next 30 to 60+ days. There is a potential that price may attempt a brief upside move over this span of time, but the true intent of price is to move lower based on our ADL price modeling system. Therefore, we believe the downside potential is the most opportunistic for traders. The next price target based on our Fibonacci bearish price trigger level is the $45 price range.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This move could take place quickly, over the next 2 to 3 weeks on a breakdown move, or over many months. Watch the $50.50 level as that is the key. If the price falls to any level below $50.50, then we could be moving towards the $45 level or even the $40 on a big move related to global economic expectations. Otherwise, expect the price to move towards the $50.50 level over the next few weeks as this support level is key to all future moves.
As we wait for the next leg to start to move prices lower, pay attention to any upside price activity as that may present a very clear entry point for skilled technical traders.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
First off, we were so happy to hear from all of our followers over the weekend and early today regarding their support for our incredible market predictions – specifically the call about the August 19th breakdown prediction. We stuck to our guns believing in our predictive modeling systems and our research team. We knew it would be just a matter of time before the weakness our models were showing us to actualize in a real price breakdown. We want to thank all of you who wrote to us and thanked us and our team for their hard work and dedication.
Now, we’ll highlight some recent events in the ES chart (S&P500 E-Mini Futures) and how it related to the bigger picture in the markets.
Before we get into the details of the market recovery today, we want all of you to understand that is natural for the markets to move in rotational waves as price establishes new highs or lows. In fact, it is essential and healthy for the markets to do this. When the markets move in an unnatural way by trending excessively over short periods of time, it reflects an imbalance in the fundamentals of the markets or the core elements of supply/demand economics. When the bottom falls out of a market, for example, it is usually because of some type of external news item or some other type of external factor/event. The markets themselves naturally have a way of processing expectations and price value through the process of buying and selling in an open market.
Therefore, as we continue this research post, please understand that any further price breakdown will likely become a process of price waves or rotations over the next few days and weeks that continue to break the most recent series of upward sloping highs and lows (from January 2019 till July 2019). But first, be sure to opt-in to our free stock market forecast newsletter.
Let’s get started with the analysis.
240 Minute ES Chart Highlights
This first 240 minute ES chart highlights the intraday rotational price structure and how the Fibonacci price modeling system is currently identifying 2850 to 2897 as a key Support/Resistance level for the price. Initially, as the breakdown in price happened on Friday and late Sunday, price blew past the projected Fibonacci target levels. This can sometimes happen in extended trending or when outside news drives market price one direction or another. The basics of Fibonacci price theory are that price will attempt to revert to within the last trending range before attempting to establish a new price highs or new price low. So with each subsequent higher or lower move within a trend, the price will attempt to revert within that range before attempting another trend/move.
In this case, the 2850 to 2897 level is the target level identified by the Fibonacci Target Levels that we want to watch. This is where the price will likely initiate the next big move from and we believe it will be to the downside.
Daily Chart Highlights
This Daily chart highlights the 2887 level for both the LONG and SHORT Fibonacci Trigger Price Level. The one thing we want you to take away from this research article is how the levels all seem to align with one another. This Daily chart is suggesting levels that align with the 240-minute chart. This is very important and provides consistency across multiple intervals for the Fibonacci system.
At this point 2887 is critical for price. Any measure to stay above this level would provide greater confidence that some type of price recovery may form in the future. Any failure to stay above this level would mean the breakdown should continue lower.
The last item we want to highlight on this Daily chart is the 2817 level (the BLUE projected Fibonacci target level). This aligns very closely with the data you’ll see on the next Weekly chart. Pay attention to how these levels work together to pinpoint price structures.
Weekly ES chart
This Weekly ES chart shows the bigger Fibonacci price modeling system and the key levels we are watching on the longer-term charts. Obviously, the 2790 to 2800 level is critical on this chart. That is a price level that aligns with the BLUE Fibonacci downside target level and the past Bearish Fibonacci Trigger Level from June 2019. It is very likely that this level will be the last level of defense for a price if the breakdown continues. This weekly chart also highlights that we need to see price move below 2575 to qualify as a “new Bearish Trend” on this chart. So we have a long way to go before we can really attempt to confirm a new longer-term Bearish trend is in place.
The way the Fibonacci modeling system address volatility can sometimes extend the range of the Trigger levels based on how price reacts and sets up. In this case, because of the extended volatility in the markets and because of how the price has rotated recently, the Fibonacci price modeling system will not confirm a new bearish price trend until price moves below 2575.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This sets up a type of “ladder pricing event” in our future. First, the 2887 level (from the Daily chart). Then 2850 (from the 240-minute chart). Then the 2795 to 2817 level. After that – LOOK OUT BELOW.
Over the next few days and weeks, we’ll see how these levels are targeted and/or breached as the price continues to rotate. We believe this downside rotation is just starting at this point and we have yet to really break below the 2728 lows from June 2019. Price MUST break these levels if the true breakdown move we are expecting is going to take place. Get ready for some really great trades – they are about to unload on all of us.
Check out these other exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing with our followers.
Join us with a subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride our coattails as we navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset ETF Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/122.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-27 00:34:112019-08-27 00:34:11ES Must Hold Above 2800 Or The Selling Will Intensify
This weekend we thought we would share some really important data and charts with all of you precious metals bugs/traders (like us). You probably remember our October 5th, 2018 call in Gold that has set off an incredible series of events for all of us. We made a prediction that day that Gold would rotate higher from the $1200 level targeting the $1300 level, then stall and move lower to set up a “momentum base” near April 21~24 before accelerating much higher after June/July 2019. Our original research chart is shown below. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter
This incredible research targeted the $1600+ level by September/November 2019. We are only about $70 away from that level right now and we have new ADL research to share with all of our followers.
If you are a fan of our research or you can understand the value of the ADL predictive modeling system and what we have highlighted for our followers – you already know that any future ADL predictions for precious metals should be of particular interest to all of you. What are metals going to do over the next few months and how can you prepare for this move, let us help you try to prepare for this next move.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
This Gold Monthly chat highlighting the ADL predictive modeling system results shows why gold traders need to be patient and wait for the next setup. That setup exists over the next 30 days as the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that Gold will attempt a downside price rotation to levels near $1490 before attempting another rally back above $1600. This is the next proper price rotation setup that traders need to look for. The second setup occurs in Jan/Feb 2020 where the price is expected to rotate from above $1600 to levels near $1540 before launching into another big rally to levels above $1870.
The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is one of the most incredible price modeling tools we use in our research. We’ve just shown you what our research tools believe Gold will do over the next 14+ months. We believe we are helping more traders and investors by proving our incredible research tools work better than any other technology solutions available in the market right now and are proving it by posting these types of charts many months before price can attempt to prove or disprove our research.
Now, one of the biggest moves is going to be in Silver and we’ve all been waiting for the incredible reversion of the Gold/Silver ratio. It is at that point when Silver begins to rally faster than Gold is rallying that we will see a true reversion in the Gold/Silver ratio. That event will result in an incredible rally in silver that could push the price of silver above $35 to $40 per ounce – or higher.
Our ADL predictive modeling system running on a Quarterly Silver chart highlights the opportunity that still exists for metals traders. Silver will continue to rally as Gold rolls higher. Silver will continue to rally to levels just below $20 over the next 8+months. The big breakout to the upside starts to take place Q3 2020. That move will push Silver prices to levels above $20 where a brief rotation will take place. By Q1 2021, the price of silver will be rallying extensively and the cat will be out of the bag in terms of what or why the metals are skyrocketing.
These moves in precious metals are going to be once of the most incredible opportunities for investors. There will be other swings in market sectors and major global market indexes as well. This is the time for all traders/investors to take advantage of the resources that are available to learn to take advantage of these setups. Our research team continues to deliver some of the most incredible research and predictive modeling results anyone has ever seen. If you can not see the value of being able to see 14 to 24 months into the future.
We urge you to consider finding resources and a team of researchers that can assist you over the next 12+ months as the moves in the global markets are going to be incredibly large and varied. Now is the time to take advantage of these opportunities and to find the right partners to assist you in finding the right trades.
CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500
In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.
I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.
On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.
More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. You won’t want to miss this big move, folks. As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!
Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get yourFREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metalsbull market and financial crisis!
Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/112.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-26 14:48:442019-08-26 14:48:44Precious Metals ADL Predictions Getting Ready For A Big Move
Our August 19 breakdown prediction from months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers. We’ve been getting emails and messages from hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction. Well, here is the last update before the August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our research to heart.
First, we believe the August 19 breakdown date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+ months. So, please understand that our predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders. It means that we believe this date, based on our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown event. Thus, if you have already prepared for this event – perfect. If this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following research posts.
August 12, 2019:AUGUST 19 (CRAZY IVAN) EVENT ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAYAugust 7, 2019: OUR CUSTOM INDEX CHARTS SUGGEST THE MARKETS ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDEJuly 30, 2019:AUGUST 19 PRICE PEAK PREDICTION IS CONFIRMED BY OUR ADL PREDICTIVE SYSTEMJuly 13, 2019:MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS
Originally, our research team identified July 2019 as a market top potential back in April/May 2019. Later, our research team updated our analysis to include the August 19 breakdown date prediction based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and cycle analysis tools. This became a critical event in the minds of our research team because it aligned with much of our other predictive research and aligned perfectly with what we were seeing in the charts as we neared the Summer.
The top prediction for July 2019 by our research team became true as we entered early August. This confirmation of our research and prediction back in April/May helped to solidify our belief that our August 19th breakdown prediction would likely become valid as well. Whenever we make a prediction many months in advance, one has to understand that we are using our predictive analysis tools to suggest what price “wants” to try to do in the future. External events can alter the price level by many factors to create what we call a “price anomaly”. When the external events and price predictive outcomes align as they have been doing over the past 4+ months, it lends quite a bit of credibility to our earlier predictive research.
In other words, we couldn’t be happier that our research team has been able to deliver incredible insight and analysis regarding the global markets and how the price will react over the past 4+ months. This is something no other investment research firm on the planet is capable of doing with any degree of accuracy right now. In fact, it is amazing to us that we’ll read some research post by a multi-national investment firm that may suggest something now that we’ve alerted our followers to 90 days earlier.
Now, onto some new details about the August 19th breakdown event…
First, be very cautious about investing in Cryptos throughout this event. The initial move, if our research continues to play out, maybe an upside rally in BitCoin based on fear as the global markets start a breakdown process. But we believe this move in Cryptos will be very short-lived as our current research suggests central banks, governments, and other institutions are getting ready to pounce on unregulated Crypto Currencies. It is our belief that the breakdown event will possibly push Bitcoin higher on a “move to safety” rotation. But once Bitcoin investors understand that governments and institutions are targeting these digital currency exchanges as criminal enterprises that threaten central banks and that there is no real safety in putting capital into a digital enterprise that can be shut down in minutes, we believe a rush to the exits will begin to take place.
We believe the shift to real physical assets will take place as a shift in asset valuations continues to take place. We believe the downside risk in Bitcoin is currently at least 30 to 40% from current values. Our initial downside target is a level near $5570 for Bitcoin with potential for price support near $7900.
Daily Bitcoin Chart
This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights arrows that we drew in mid-July based on our expectations for future price rotation. You can see that price, for the most part, followed our expectations and stayed within the Fibonacci price channel, near the lower price levels, while navigating the MAGENTA Fibonacci price amplitude arc (across the tops in price) as it moved towards our August 19th breakdown date. It is critical to understand that price will attempt to either establish new price highs or new price lows based on Fibonacci price theory. It is our belief that an upside rally towards the $11,300 level will be the “last rally” before a breakdown price trend pushes Bitcoin much lower. This is likely the reaction of the “flight to safety” that we suggested earlier.
Weekly Bitcoin Chart
This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a broader picture of the same event and how it will likely play out in the near future. Remember, initially, global investors will attempt to pike into anything that is quick, easy and efficient to protect against perceived capital risks. We are certain that some investors will attempt to pile into Cryptos as the breakdown event starts. The question is, will this transition of capital stay safe long enough for investors to capitalize on the move? We don’t believe so based on our research.
If the price of Cryptos breaks through that Magenta Fibonacci price amplitude arc and initiates a move to new higher highs, then we’ll have to rethink our analysis. But for right now, we are sticking to our belief that Cryptos will see an impulse rally that will quickly be followed by a breakdown event (likely the result of some government intervention or broader risk event).
Weekly S&P 500 Chart
This Weekly S&P 500 chart highlights what we believe is the most likely immediate price trend related to the October 2018 price decline. If a downside price move does initiate as we expect because of the August 19 breakdown inflection point, we believe the S&P will target immediate support above $2400. If you’ve followed any of our research, you already understand we believe the move dynamic economies on the planet are uniquely situated to actually benefit from this downside price event. Therefore, we must understand that a “price exploration event”, like this, is a mechanism for investors to seek out true value levels for global assets. All major price corrections are, in essence, a process of seeking out price levels where investors believe “true value” exists.
NASDAQ Weekly Transportation Index
The NASDAQ Transportation Index paints a very clear picture for our research team. In fact, we find the TRAN particularly useful in our research of the global and US markets. Even though we follow dozens of symbols and instruments, one of our key objectives is to attempt to validate our analysis across multiple instruments/charts and to attempt to identify faults in our expected outcomes.
The recent downside price move in the TRAN aligns perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation. It is very likely that some news or pricing event over the next 7+ days pushes the TRAN below the RED price channel and downward towards the middle Standard Deviation level near $3900. Once the TRAN breaks the RED support level, you should expect the US and global markets to also begin a broader move lower.
Ideally, the $3500 level should operate as a moderately hard price floor for this downside move. $3900 would be considered the initial target of the downside price move whereas $3500 would be considered the initial “hard floor” support level. Given these expectations, we have to consider the potential for a -15% to -25% initial downside price move in TRAN which would translate into a -18% to -35% downside price move in the S&P or NASDAQ.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, August 19th is tomorrow (Monday). This is where we’ll find out if our prediction will be viewed in the future as accurate or not. The one thing about making public predictions for many months in advance is that you can’t go back and try to lie to your followers/readers. Either it works out as we suggested or it does not. We believe in the skills of our research team and predictive modeling systems. We’ve seen how accurate they have been in the past and we believe we’ve delivered top-tier analysis to all of our followers and readers. In fact, we know you can’t find anything like this type of research from other investment or research firms.
Over the next 10 to 30+ days, we’ll be able to look back at our August 19th prediction and say “we were right” or “we were wrong” – that is part of trading, folks. You use your best tools to make an educated assessment of current and future expectations, then act on it (if you want). We’ll follow up on the other side of August 19th with all of you.
Stay fluid as this event plays out, and most importantly, know that we don’t blindly trade on predictions, we use our short-term technical analysis and current market trends to enter and exit trades. The reality is, no matter if the markets roll over and crash or rocket higher, we will follow and trade with the market. The best thing about being technical traders is we don’t care which way the markets go. We just analyze and trade with the current market trend and make money in both directions and at the drop of a hat!
If you want to trade and invest without the stress of a pending market collapse or missing out on another extended rally to new highs then join my Wealth Building Newsletter today and copy my proven technical trading setups and trade with me!
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/82.png548850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-19 11:08:092019-08-19 11:08:09August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready?
