Posts

Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Price Volatility Will Continue

We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year.  Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends.  The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move.  Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility.  The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities.  Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.

This ES Daily Fibonacci chart prompts two initial analysis insights – first, the peaks near 3025 appear to have setup a double-top pattern that should be interpreted as major resistance.  Historical Fibonacci price trigger levels setup a range in price that has proven to be a key price channel (highlighted in LIGHT BLUE).  Current price rotation suggests continued price weakness may continue – at least until price attempts to rally above 3025 and attempts to establish a new price high.  Downside price targets are near 2900, 2695 and 2610.  Rotation within the price channel could continue for a while before a new price trend is established. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

This Weekly ES Fibonacci price chart highlights the very wide Fibonacci price trigger levels that suggest extreme price volatility could become a major factor going forward.  The interesting facet of this chart is that Bearish Fibonacci trigger levels have been crossed over the past 12+ months whereas Bullish Fibonacci trigger levels have stayed just outside of real price levels.  This suggests that the current upside price move, over the past 7+ months, could be a pullback in a bearish price trend.  As difficult as that may be for some traders to understand at this point, the process of the Fibonacci price modeling system that adapts to price trend and rotation is designed to allow for price to determine future outcomes.  Thus, the Bullish trigger levels being far outside the upside price peaks suggests that price may be moving higher within a defined downtrend cycle – a pullback within a bearish trend.

This Daily YM chart is setup very similar to the ES Daily chart with a defined price channel established by the current Fibonacci price trigger levels (highlighted in LIGHT BLUE on this chart).  The lower price peak recently, near September 11, suggests price was unable to rally back to near previous high levels.  Technical, this can be interpreted as a Double-top and can also be interpreted as a failure to attempt to rally above 27500.  We believe the current rotation is indicative of a channel consolidation before a breakout/breakdown move.

This Weekly YM chart highlights the extended range between the Fibonacci price trigger levels and suggests the YM is setting up a bigger move in the near future.  Just like the ES chart, the YM is showing that price is stuck within a channel and that the Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a breakout or breakdown move is likely.  At these times, we would fall back to the Daily charts for the shorter term analysis which suggests sideways trading within a range and the potential that the bearish price trend is the more dominant bias.

We believe the US stock market could be setting up for a downside price rotation that may become very volatile over the next 2 to 3 months.  Price would have to break below recent price troughs before we could attempt to establish any new longer-term price trends.  The recent price rotation, higher highs, and higher lows, is indicative of a bullish price trend.  Although, we believe this trend may be a technical pullback of a bearish price trend.

Ultimately, price will dictate a new price trend and extended direction.  We believe any price rotation (downward) will be fairly short lived and setup a new upside price rally that will attempt to rally beyond recent price highs.  Skilled technical traders need to be prepared for extended volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and be prepared for some big price trends.

MORE CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

Bitcoin Price Collapse Continue For Many Months

The recent price collapse in Bitcoin may be the start of a much bigger price trend in the Cryptos.  The support level near $9000 has been breached and the current resistance arc, see the MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs on these charts, are clearly acting as a major contracting price resistance level.  Our research suggests price will find support near $7900, then $5571, then possibly just above $2000. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

The Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs are a proprietary modeling tool we use to measure and track how price may react based on previous price swings.  They are the visual deployment of two unique theories;  Fibonacci price theory and Tesla’s Mechanical Resonance theory.  The basis behind our thinking when we created this proprietary tool was that Fibonacci price theory suggests that all price movement is related and structured to previous price movements and that Tesla’s theory that everything we touch, see and know to exist is the result of ENERGY suggested to us that ENERGY may be one of the most important components in understanding price movement.

Energy is typically measured in Volts and Amps.  We adopted a different approach to this thinking, we used Sound structures and energy as the basis for our proprietary analysis: attack, intensity, decay, sustainability, amplitude, and frequency, as well as pressure and velocity.

“In Physics, sound energy is a form of energy.  Sound is a mechanical wave and as such consists physically in oscillatory elastic compression and in oscillatory displacement of fluid.  Therefore, the medium acts as a storage for both potential and kinetic energy.”

source : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_energy

Imagine trying to unlock the concept that Time and Price are a fluid environment where energy (price movement over time) creates a lasting and dynamic method of storing energy, displacing energy and developing kinetic energy that could interact and displace future price trends, rotations, swings?

How in the world would you attempt to identify or study these types of price energy waves to attempt to develop a system of successfully using these tools for trading and analysis?

You do exactly what we did – you try to apply your best researchers to the task and attempt to validate your research across various platforms, symbols, and sets of data.

With more than 54 years of experience in the markets and have studied almost all types of price theory, technical analysis, and other types of market price, technical, and fundamental analysis techniques.  We put our skills to the test every day in order to find and execute the best trades. If you want to see more of our trading indicators and tools click here.

BITCOIN FIBONACCI PRICE AMPLITUDE ARCS

These Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs, as we call them, are what we believe to be the hidden price energy wave that exists behind the linear constructs of the charts we are used to seeing.  They work by creating breakouts and channels that price must react to.  In this case, the Magenta price arc is acting as a contracting ceiling for the price (resistance) and price should continue to stay below the MAGENTA price arc until it reaches a point where enough energy exists to break through that arc.

WEEKLY BITCOIN CHART

This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a better example of how our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude arcs are deployed.  In this example, we can clearly see the bottom that formed in late 2018 and the peak that formed in late June 2019.  We can see two HEAVY Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs: one MAGENTA and the other one GREEN.  These are what we believe are the major amplitude arc levels.  The others are minor levels.

Each peak or valley on this chart sets up a new Price Amplitude energy pattern.  Some are more relevant than others in term of how price will react to them.  All of them are important to understand and to help us relate to how price may move in the future, yet we try to stick with the most important Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs when we share charts with our readers.  You’ve probably seen some of our other research charts with lots of arcs and lines drawn all over them – those are part of our research team’s work to dig into the hidden energy layer that exists behind price activity on every chart.

This Weekly Bitcoin chart suggests that price will continue to attempt to test various support levels while staying within the Magenta price arc.  We believe the $5571 level is the likely target at this time.

Don’t chase this move lower in Cryptos.  Wait for the bottom to setup and form before looking for the next move higher.  If price breaks below $5571, then we could see a target level near $2100 very quickly.  If price is unable to generate enough energy to break the Magenta price arc, time will eventually push price into the next arc series where a broader price range/rotation may be in the future.

5 OTHER CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

News and Emotions Aside, This Is Where Stocks and Metals Are Headed

If you follow the headline news, read multiple articles a day from different sources on the markets, and are human then you are likely underperforming the market in which you are trying to beat like gold, miners, the SP500 index or whatever it may be.

The information I talk about below and in this video should be a real eye opener for those have not seen technical analysis in action, just how clear the we can see what the stock market, bonds, metals, oil and more will do next. Even at a time like this when the markets are gyrating all over hte place from week to week, we can still gauge our risk and be a winner.

No matter where I go when someone asks me what I do for a living, the person asking has the same “Deer in the headlights” look on their face. I am a technical analyst and trade stocks and commodities for a living with zero external input other than what the price chart of an asset class has painted on the chart.

Most people have never heard of technical analysis for trading or investing, and those that have heard about it think its some type of VooDoo and holds little value. The reality is technical analysis outperforms most of those who trade based on news, earnings, economic data etc…

Why? because all those things are very random data points and unpredictable. If they are important big/smart/insider money has moved into position to take advantage of this before the information becomes public. This is why good news for stocks gets sold into once released for example.

I started trading stocks when I was 16 years old in high school and fall in love with reading charts. Now, 23 years later I have no doubt in my mind technical analysis and trading systems are the absolute best way to trade and invest for growth. Dont get me wrong I spent years digging through company perspectives, reports, press releases and a few years of doing that was almost enough to make me hate trading as it become more like a job and less profitable.

If you just want to cut to the point and know what and when to buy, take profits, and exit a position then technical analysis is what you seek!

HOW TO ANALYZE KEY MARKETS EVERY MORNING

The analysis presented below covers the SP500, Bond, Utilities, Gold, Silver, Oil, and even Bitcoin. This is the analysis I share very day before the opening bell to keep you up to date with current market trends, potentially explosive moves, and set you expectations so you do not become overly emotional and exit a trade early from fear, or excitement.

THIS HAPPENED LATER THAT SAME DAY – WASHOUT LOW

In the video above I talked about how the SP500 was setting critical support that day, and I did this before the opening bell at 9 am. We just take a look at what the market likes to do intraday with the price to shake traders out of their position and trigger their stop-loss orders just before a market reversal.

I live and die by these three rules for my technical trading

1. IDENTIFY TREND DIRECTION

Trends are more likely to continue then they are to reverse. Draw trend lines on the long-term and short-term charts.

2. FIND SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

Identify critical areas of support and resistance on the price charts. Calculate Fibonacci percent retracements, advancement levels, and other measured moves.

3. TIME CYCLES & SENTIMENT

Use cycle analysis, investor sentiment, volatility, panic selling, greed buying, and price patterns to form accurate price forecasts to use for trading. Opt-in to our free market trend forecast newsletter

REACHING THE CHARTS IS ONLY HALF THE EQUATION

Focus Just On The Charts and Ignore All Other Data/Opinions or else you’ll end up with analysis paralysis.

Traders contact me every day confused about which direction to trade. I can tell a couple things very quickly about their issues depending on how they state their problem or question, and its generally a simple fix, or answer that will get them back on track but analysis paralysis is one of the most common issues.

The second half the equation for trading success is a topic most traders turn a blind eye to because it seems confusing, and, or boring. Risk management is the key to long term success and a portfolio value that always goes up and to the right. Believe it or not, its super simple, takes seconds to figure out what position size you should take in any given stock or ETF trade.

In a future post, I am going to talk about how you can take half the financial risk while making 8x more profits. Stay Tuned!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is The Technology Sector about to break lower?

We believe the current capital shift in the US stock market may be settling into the Technology sector as investors move away from growth and into value.  Technology has recently recovered very nicely from the late December 2018 lows and is currently setting up a very eerily similar pattern across multiple charts.

If our analysis is correct, we believe the Technology sector may be setting up for a downside price breakdown near the APEX of these Pennant/Flag formations that appear in our charts.  Near recent, all-time highs, this downside breakdown could be rather large in size, possibly as much as -20% to -35% or more, and could result in a global stock market decline that could shock most investors/traders.

The economic data that has recently been announced in the US continues to show moderate strength overall.  The jobs numbers are decent.  The consumer is still moderately active and we are getting into the Christmas Rally season.  Yet we are also in the midst of a Presidential Election cycle that continues to heat up and drive almost daily new headlines.  Our opinion is that the US consumer will become fixated on the political theater while we get closer to the November 2020 elections and may curb Christmas/holiday spending if news/perspective suddenly darken.

One of the first sectors we believe could break is the Technology sector – where foreign investors have poured billions into this sector while chasing price gains and to protect against foreign currency devaluation.  Once investors determine Technology is no longer “safe”, then a downside price event (true price exploration) will likely happen and we are concerned the downside risks could be much greater than 20~25%.

This AMD weekly chart provides one of the clearest pictures of the tight Pennant/Flag formation setting up in price.  After a Double-Top type of formation near $35, any further price advance was rejected near $36.  The current tight price rotation after the August 2019 peak suggests a very tight Pennant/Flag formation is setting up.  If our analysis is correct, the APEX/breakout/breakdown event is only a few days away.  Our count of the Pennant rotation suggests the breakdown move (lower) is the most likely outcome.

This AMZN chart highlights a similar pattern to the AMD chart.  Although the current Pennant/Flag formation is a little more defined, the structure is still the same.  An August 2019 high after a Double-Top formation, downward price rotation after the August 2019 peak and a clear APEX setting up RIGHT NOW.  The downside risk in AMZN is clearly a drop to near previous support (near $1310) – -20% or more.

GOOG provides a very clear example of the price volatility that is setting up a major Pennant/Flag formation.. Although the current setup is broader than the previous two examples, the potential for a breakdown event in GOOG is still strong.  The Double-Top pattern near $1280 provides clear resistance.  The recent narrowing price channel sets up a very clear Pennant/Flag formation.  We believe the downside price move in GOOG will initially target the lower price channel, then break that channel and continue lower.

Netflix has already broken below the lower price channel.  This is what brought this entire sector to our attention recently.  If Netflix continues lower, it could draw the entire Technology sector and US major indexes much lower over the next few days/weeks.  The downside price risk in Netflix is easily -25% to -45% – or more.

Our Custom Technology Index chart shows how the overall Technology sector is struggling to stay above the lower price channel.  Our concern is that one or more of the major technology firms may break the lower Pennant channel and attempt to start a breakdown in the US stock market.  If this is the case, then a panic may setup in the markets where investors dump technology very quickly.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Skilled technical traders are adept at finding ways to profit from nearly any price trends.  A quick trade in TECS or an Inverse NASDAQ ETF would allow many skilled traders to attempt to profit from this APEX/breakdown potential. We don’t have confirmation of the breakdown event just yet, but it certainly appears that the Technology sector could come under some severe pressure over the next 30+ days

Also, take a look at all my precious metals trade signals this year (2019) with a total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter of 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you bought and held GDXJ gold miners ETF.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals or technology stocks (and I LOVE them both), you do not need to always be in a position with them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are life-changing events in a good way if traded correctly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation, or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

The Equities Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center

We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes.  The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move  that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event).  The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.

It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020.  This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year.  Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend.  We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend.  We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.

CUSTOM TECHNOLOGY WEEKLY INDEX CHART

This Custom Technology Index chart highlights the Wedge formation that is one of our main concerns.  The Technology sector is one of the most heavily weighted sectors in the US stock market and the one that typically has the highest price to earnings multiple.  Over the past 5+ years, billions have poured into the Technology sector chasing the rally and the security of the US stock market/US Dollar.  A breakdown in this sector (like the DOT COM crash) could be devastating for the global markets.  As you can see, the price is already very close to the lower price channel and could breakdown within the next 2 to 5+ weeks.  Pay attention to weakness in the NASDAQ and/or the technology sector overall.

MONTHLY S&P 500 CHART

This S&P 500 chart highlights the rising Wedge formation that is set up and nearly complete.  This Monthly chart also highlights the extended volatility within the global markets compared to levels prior to 2018.  It is our opinion that the Apex of this Wedge will result in a breakdown/price reversion event targeting levels below 2600 on the SPX.  This reversion could extend to levels below 2000 on extended price weakness.  Our opinion is that the bottom will form sometime between December 2019 and April 2020 where a new Wedge formation will setup before reaching the Apex and starting a new upside price trend near August/October 2020.

We prepared for a very volatile price rotation/reversion event as these Wedges reach their Apex moment.  Skilled technical traders should be able to find lots of opportunity for profits over the next 6+ months with these big price rotations.

WEEKLY US DOLLAR CHART

The US Dollar will likely rotate within the Magenta price channel as this has continued to provide very clear price support over the past 20+ months.  We don’t believe the US Dollar will decline by more than 5% to 7% throughout the reversion event.  The fact is that the US Dollar has regained a level of dominance within the world and the US Dollar may continue to strengthen for many months into the future.

Remember, these reversion events are essential for proper price exploration and future price trends to establish.  They are fundamental to all price activity.  A healthy price rotation will allow for future trends to establish and mature well into 2021~2024.  The current Wedge formations must complete and the Apex rotation must happen in order for price to conduct “true price exploration” and “true price valuation”.  From these levels, price will establish a new price trend that may continue for many years into the future.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We strongly suggest all readers consider the risks of their open portfolio positions and take steps to protect against any unwanted risk exposure.  As we are suggesting, we believe the Apex event will begin within 2 to 4+ weeks – possibly sooner.  If you want to know what we are advising our clients about this event, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong sie of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Bottom

Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.

Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets.  These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate.  Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.

The one aspect that many traders don’t grasp just yet is that the US market could continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months, while precious metals continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months.  The reality is the fear and greed driving the upside price move in metals is related to foreign market concerns (China/Asia, Europe/EU/BREXIT, Arab/Iran/Israel, and others).  The true fear is that some type of war or economic event will start while the global markets are fragile.  The recent news that the overnight Repo Market is seizing is another indication that the global credit market is very fragile.  What will it take to launch metals higher?  We believe the world is waiting for this next event to happen while this momentum base continues to set up.

GOLD DAILY CHART

This Gold Daily chart highlights the momentum base setup between $1480 and $1525.  Any entry below $1500 is a relatively solid entry point for skilled technical traders.  The next upside target based on our Fibonacci price modeling tool is $1795.  Thus, the real upside move potential at this point is another +20% for Gold.

SILVER DAILY CHART

Silver is setting up a similar momentum base pattern after reaching levels just below $20 per ounce.  We still believe the early October breakout date is relevant and we believe the next upside target will be between $21 to $24 in Silver.  Any entry level below $17.60 is a solid area for skilled technical traders preparing for the next upside price leg.

There has been a lot of talk from analysts and researchers that Gold could rally well past $5,000 if the markets collapse.  One analysis came out recently and suggest Gold could rally above $23,000.  We are a bit more conservative with our initial upside target of $3,750.

The bottom line is you really don’t want to miss this opportunity in the precious metals markets once it forms a bottom and starts to rally.  This recent price rotation is a gift for skilled technical traders.  If you were to take a minute and really consider how precious metals would react to a foreign market credit collapse on top of the potential for a collapsing economic outlook resulting from the credit collapse, you’ll quickly understand that trillions of dollars will be seeking safety and security in the metals markets in due time.

My Wealth Building ETF Newsletter will hold your hand, and tell you what trades to take as these events unfold including the entry price, price targets, and most importantly stop prices. If you like what I offer ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Chris Vermeulen on Gold, Silver, Miners, Crude Oil, Bonds, and Bitcoin.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members and most importantly we did this with very little portfolio risk. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine. Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION – OFFER ENDS SOON!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals & The US Dollar – How It All Relates – Part II

This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets.  We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility. Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive. One of the primary reasons for this shift in the markets is the strength of the US Dollar and the US Stock Market (as well as the strength in other mature economies).  The capital shift that began to take place in 2013-2014 was a shift away from risk and towards safer, more mature economic sources.  This shift continues today – in an even more heightened environment.  The volatility we are seeing in the US and foreign markets is related to this shift taking place as well as the currency valuation changes that continue to rattle the global markets.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

It is our opinion that, at some point, the support levels in foreign markets may collapse while the US and major mature global economies become safe-havens for assets.  When this happens, we’ll see the US Dollar rally even further which will push many foreign currencies into further despair.  The overall strength of the US Dollar is being supported by this continued capital shift and the way that global assets are seeking safety and security.  The same thing is happening in precious metals.
We believe the current setup in the US markets is indicative of a breakout/breakdown FLAG/Pennant formation.  We believe this current setup should prompt a very volatile price swing in the markets over the next 3 to 6+ months which may become the start of a broader event playing out in the foreign markets.  How this relates to precious metals is simply – more fear, more greed, more uncertainty equals a very strong rally in precious metals over the next 12+ months.

Dow Jones Index Chart

This Dow Jones chart highlights what we believe is a very strong Resistance Channel that needs to be broken if the US stock market is going to attempt to push higher in the future.  You can also see the BLUE lines we’ve drawn on this chart that sets up the FLAG/Pennant formation.  Although price broke through the lows of the FLAG/Pennant formation, we still consider it valid because it confirms on other US major indexes.  Should the Dow Jones fail to move above the previous price high, near early July 2019, then we believe the Resistance Channel will reject price near current levels and force it lower (filling a recent gap and targeting the $25,500 level or lower).

Custom Volatility Index Chart

Our Custom Volatility Index chart shows a similar type of setup.  Price weakness is evident near the upper channel level of this chart.  This chart is very helpful for our research team because it puts price peaks and troughs into perspective within a “channeling-type” of rotating range.  You can see that previous major price peaks have always settled above 16 or 17 on this chart.  And previous major price bottoms have always settled below 7 or 8 on this chart.  The current price volatility level is just above 13 – just entering the weakness zone in an uptrend.  If price were to fail near this level, a move toward 8 would not be out of the question.  We just have to watch and see how price reacts over the next few weeks to determine if these weakness channels will push price lower.

Gold Monthly Chart

If our research is correct, the entire move higher in precious metals, originating near the bottom in December 2015, is a complex wave formation setting up a WAVE 1 upside move.  This complex wave formation is likely to consist of a total of 5 price waves (as you can see from the chart below) and will likely end with Gold trading well above the $2000 price level near or before June 2020. If this analysis is correct, we are about to enter a very big, volatile and potentially violent price move in the global markets that could rip your face off if you are not prepared.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS”

This BEAST of a market is about to explode as we’ve highlighted by this research and these charts.  It may start ripping our faces off in less than 30 days or it could take longer.  One thing is for sure, the global markets are set up for something big and precious metals are beating our foreheads saying “hey, look over here!!  This is where risk is trailing into as the markets continue to set up for this volatile price move!!”. If you are not ready for this move, then we suggest you visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these big swings in the markets. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine. Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime 

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Metals & The US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I

The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets.  Particularly, throughout the foreign markets.  Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar.  Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.

12 Month Capital Shift Seen in Currencies

As we have been suggesting over the past 12+ months, a capital shift continues to play out in the global markets where capital is actively seeking the best, most secure locations for investment and we believe that will result in strength in mature global economies.  Take a look at this chart of various foreign currencies to understand how this capital shift process is really playing out across the globe. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
Japan, Canada, Switzerland are all experiencing moderate price weakness against the US Dollar – yet these mature economies are fairing better than many others.  The relationship between the EUR and the GPB appears to be relatively stable as both currencies have dramatically weakened over the past 16+ months – almost in perfect alignment.  Comparatively, the other currencies within this display have experienced dramatic price weakness over the past 4+ years in relationship to the US Dollar and their associated PAIR currencies.

Gold Price Comparison In Other Currencies

The recent upside price move in precious metals exasperates the issue of localized consumption/acquisition of Gold/Silver as pricing pressures continue to push local pricing higher and higher.  We are still very early in the bullish price cycle for precious metals.  As increased fear and greed enter the markets over the next 15+ months, we believe the scramble to acquire physical metals and market positions will continue to increase even further. These Gold Price Comparison charts, below, show just how dramatic the upward price move has been for foreign investors in local currencies.  In US Dollar terms, Gold has risen just over 33% (approx: $350 USD).  In Canadian Dollar terms, it has risen 30% over the past year (approx: $475 CAD).  In Australian Dollar terms, it has risen just over 34% (approx: $590 AUD).  In Chinese Yuan terms, it has risen just over 36% (approx: $$2,965 CNY).  In Indian Rupee terms, it has risen just over 29% (approx: $2,545 INR).  The reality is that precious metals have gotten very expensive for foreign investors in local currencies – and this is just starting to the metals rally.
The primary reason for this is the continued capital shift that has been taking place over the past 2 to 4+ years.  As the global markets entered a period where commodity prices started collapsing (2014 in Oil), the global markets started shifting away from emerging markets and risky assets/investments.  The hunt for more secure investment sources was on. When Oil bottomed in early 2016, a reprieve in investor sentiment settled into the markets where expansion into more risky assets took place.  All of this changed with the top formation in the US stock market in early 2018 and the downside price rotation in Oil in October 2018.  Now, as precious metals start to rally and clearly illustrate that fear and greed are entering the markets, the continued hunt for secure, mature economic environments continue at a record pace. In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe the global markets are just starting a dramatic shift that will likely continue to unfold throughout the next 24+ months and why we believe it is important for all skilled technical traders to understand the risks that are present in the current global markets.  This is not your simple trending global market any longer (think pre-2014) – this is a BEAST. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine. Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future

It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week.  After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York.  The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves. As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet.  The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting.  One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months.  This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits. Many months ago we authored an article about the US Presidential election cycle and how that event plays into market uncertainty and price activity.  We are currently entering the prime span of time where price rotation and volatility because of this election event should take place.  This “price malaise” typically happens about 16 months before the election date.  As we move closer to the elections, the markets typically become much more volatile and enter a period where the price tends to consolidate near recent lows or establish moderate new lows as attention shifts away from the economy and towards the election news. If you are serious about trading, this is when you want to pay very close attention to the various market sectors and understand that opportunities may be very short and sweet for profits.

Mid Cap Stock Index 30 Minute Chart Pattern

This first chart is the MC (S&P 400 Midcap) which shows how price strength in this sector moved against the overall price trend of the ES, YM, and others.  From the start of trading, the MC appeared to have a stronger upside price bias than the other US major market sectors.  This may mean that traders are finding real value in the Midcap sector and are stepping back into this sector thinking it may have some real opportunity for growth.

Transportation Index – 30 Minute Chart

Additionally, the Transportation Index moved higher in a similar structure.  The Transportation Index typically leads the US stock market by 3 to 6 months as an indicator of future price expectations related to the need for trucks, rail, shipping, and other economic-related activities.  More need for shipping/transportation solutions means a more active economy.  A more active economy means more buying and selling of goods, services, and other items.  Thus, if the Transportation Index can break recent high levels and begin a new upside price move, it would be a very clear sign that the US economy is strengthening and that the US major indexes may begin a new upside price move soon.

VIX – Volatility Index 30 Minute Chart

The VIX, on the other hand, is still showing us that price volatility has not vanished quite yet.  The VIX started moving higher early in trading and continues to push a bit higher right now.  If the VIX moves back above 18 or 19 quickly, the we are likely going to see increased volatility in certain sectors of the market which could present real problems for traders.  As long as the VIX stays below 18, then the volatility may stay a bit muted going forward. Pay attention to the VIX and what happens to the major stock indexes over the next 2+ weeks.  Trade accordingly.  This is not your simple, safe trending market any longer.  This is larger volatility with increased risks.
If you are not a very skilled technical trader that understands risks and position sizing, then this market is probably not for you.  This is where you will likely chew through your account trying to run longer-term setups in a very choppy market environment. Volatility is key.  Until the VIX settles back down below 12, we are going to continue to experience bigger, more volatile price rotations.  Some may be as large as 2% or 3% as news hits.  This is why we must understand the risks that are at play here and how to protect our assets from losses.  Remember, you don’t have to be in a trade all the time in order to profit from the markets.  Watch for the proper setups and wait for the proper entry point before this market chews you up and spits you out. We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!

Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com