Selling a Credit Spread using Put Options is the topic of today’s Trader Tip by Brian Benson of TheTechnicalTraders.com. Oil Services companies such as HAL, BKR, and SLB are doing very well as capital expenditures in the Energy Sector have the order books for equipment and services very full.
In today’s video, Brian shows how to implement a Credit Spread using the OIH ETF as an underlying. It’s a high-probability trade setup with a potential return of more than 20% for a month’s duration. The Credit Spread is a neutral to bullish trade and gives us some room to be wrong and still make money.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT CREDIT SPREADS – WATCH THE VIDEO
Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!
Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!
TO EXPLORE THE Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. You’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Trader-Tip-1.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-25 09:36:242022-04-25 09:36:34Oil Services ETF OIH – Credit Spread –Trader Tip Video
There are many benefits to utilizing multiple time frame analysis in your trading. Some of the standard time frames are monthly, daily, weekly, 4-hour, 1-hour, etc. Longer-term traders may also monitor quarterly and annual charts for clues in market price action.
Some traders use this process to hedge their position using options or an inverse ETF. Others use multi-time frame analysis to enter new positions by exploiting counter-trend moves within a trending market.
Longer time frames tend to be more reliable but shorter time frames can reduce risk. Experienced traders who utilize multi-time frames seem to be able to extract the best from all time frames to improve their overall trading efficiency.
Using the SPY ETF (S&P 500) we will look at a simple example of this type of time frame analysis utilizing the daily and a 4-hour chart:
In early January 2022, the SPY reacted at 2.618% of its Covid 2020 price drop.
The -14.55% price drop lasted approximately 50 days until the SPY found buying support at 1.618%.
This price drop took out the 4th quarter 2021 SPY low and the drop was also greater than any other drop that had occurred during the 2020-2021 bull rally.
SPY PRICE DROP OF -14.55% VIOLATED ITS 4TH QUARTER 2021 LOW
The SPY 4-hour chart shows us the exact same price information as the SPY daily chart. However, in viewing the 4-hour chart we have 6 times as many bars (1-day equals 24 hours and 24-hours equals 6 4-hour bars).
One example of how this might benefit us is when using a 72-period Bollinger Band on a daily chart this would represent a calendar quarter. While a 72-period Bollinger Band on a 4-hour chart is equal to 12- days or one-half of a month.
As we shorten the timeframe of our chart it is like we are looking through a magnifying glass which allows us to see our price data in greater detail.
Once the SPY price violated its 4th quarter 2021 low we were signaled or given a clue that it may be time to liquidate our long positions and consider purchasing an inverse ETF to the SPY like SH.
The 4-hour SPY chart utilizing a 72-period (12-day) Bollinger Band provides us with an excellent opportunity to take profits on our previous long positions by liquidating.
72-period Bollinger Band: 72 4-hour bars equal 288 hours divided by 24 gives us 12-days.
Using A MULTI TIME FRAME STRATEGY TO PURCHASE AN INVERSE ETF
There are different reasons for utilizing an inverse ETF. A trader may want to hedge their profit in the underlying market, or a trader may want to sell the market short outright. Regardless of the trader’s motive, an inverse ETF can provide additional benefits and flexibility.
As we analyze the SPY and how it violated its previous quarter low, we need to consider that the SPY may be transitioning out of its bull market phase.
An alternative strategy or counter-strategy is to purchase a SPY inverse ETF like SH – ProShares Short S&P 500. A simple explanation of the inverse is that when the S&P 500 loses SH will gain or when the S&P 500 gains SH will lose. The goal of the SH ETF is to be as close as possible to the exact opposite of the S&P500 index (SPY ETF).
Since SH is an inverse ETF we want to look for a place to buy SH using a multi time frame analysis chart such as the 4-hour chart. The 72-period Bollinger Band (12-day) just gave us a ‘Buying Zone’.
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered in March, all have now been closed at a profit! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-04-17_19-25-25.jpg605880adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-19 10:20:472022-04-19 10:20:56Trading Major Indicies With Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders joins Elijah K Johnson from Liberty and Finance to discuss gold/silver’s latest big moves. Gold prices had a huge run-up early this year, then the war hit, which created an extra surge. We are now seeing gold pullback and cool off a little bit.
Based on the charts, silver has a pretty similar price action very strong run-up, now flagging sideways, and may start moving up to 29.58 going forward. There should be a lot of selling when silver gets up to this level. The quicker something moves up, the more likely it is to come straight back down when it hits a target.
Overall, there was a pretty deep pullback for gold and silver after the war. The war was a news-based surge and anything news-based that drives price parabolic, usually, that gain gets given back.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT GOLD AND SILVER’S LATEST MOVE – WATCH THE VIDEO
TO EXPLORE THE strategies in the Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The technical traders. You’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/admin-ajax.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-19 09:26:102022-04-19 09:26:19Gold/Silver – Possible Big Moves Within Days/Weeks Video
In an option chain, the delta for a given option strike price can vary from -1 to +1. Call options have a positive delta for option buyers somewhere between 0 and +1. Calls increase in value when the underlying increases in value. Put options have a negative delta somewhere between 0 and -1 as Put option prices have an inverse correlation to the underlying price.
Note that the signs on these relationships are reversed for option sellers who are short contracts. An option seller that is short a Call will have delta exposure between 0 and -1, while a Put seller will have delta exposure between 0 and +1.
What is Delta?
Option traders already have some familiarity with the set of option Greeks like delta, theta, and gamma. For those unfamiliar, the option Greeks are calculated values that approximate how option price may be expected to change given a change in input such as underlying price move, time decay, and implied volatility.
Perhaps the most popular and versatile of the Greeks is the delta. It tells us how much the price of an option can be expected to change given a $1 move in the underlying stock. For example, if we’re long a Call option with a delta of 0.60, we might expect the option’s price to increase by $0.60 if the underlying share price increases by $1.00.
How is Delta Calculated?
We can think of delta as the ratio of option price change and share price change.
Mathematically it is stated as
Delta = (O1 – O2) / (S1 – S2) where:
O1 is the changed price of the option,
O2 is the initial price of the option,
S1 is the changed price of the underlying stock, and
S2 is the initial price of the underlying stock
Fortunately, our option trading platforms can take care of the calculations. You may have to configure your trading platform to include delta as one of the values shown in the option chain.
Strike Selection and Probability
Option strike prices can be “in-the-money,” “out-of-the-money,” or “at-the-money.” An option with a strike price close to the underlying price is considered “at-the-money.” An option that is “at-the-money” will have a delta that is very close to 0.50.
Keep in mind that the delta itself changes with a change in the underlying price. We can generally expect the it to increase when an option moves further in-the-money.
One of the more common uses for delta is to help traders select strike prices. If we’re bullish on a stock and would like to buy a Call option rather than the shares, delta can help us select a Call strike price.
Delta can also estimate the probability of a particular share price at expiration. For example, a Call option with a delta of 0.80 suggests that the underlying has an 80% chance of being at or above that strike price at expiration. Or conversely, a 20% chance that the underlying will be below the option strike price at expiration. More rigorous calculations are available for price probability, but delta serves as a handy “back of the envelope” approximation.
We could buy an out-of-the-money Call with a low delta — for example, 0.10. With that low delta, the option’s price would be lower, and we’d have greater leverage. But the tradeoff is a much lower probability of the stock being at the strike price or higher at expiration. We could have a much higher probability trade by buying a deep ITM option with a delta of 0.80. This second alternative would be less speculative as the high delta option will track the underlying much better and be a better proxy for the stock.
Position Delta
Position delta can estimate the profit or loss on an entire option position relative to $1 changes in the stock price. This can be very helpful in assessing the directional risk of an entire position or even an entire portfolio.
Position delta can be estimated as follows:
Position Delta = Option Delta x Number of Contracts Traded x 100
Position delta can tell us the actual dollar amount that we might expect a position or portfolio to change given a certain change in the underlying’s price. Again, our trading platforms can be configured to do all these calculations.
Summary
Delta estimates the change in the price of an option based on a change in the underlying stock price. It can give us an approximation for the probability that an option will expire in-the-money. And lastly, delta can help traders assess directional risk on an entire position or portfolio.
Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.
Our Options Specialist, Brian Benson, has been on fire. During the last month, of the last 13 trades he has made, 11 of them have finished in the money!
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy your day!
Chris Vermeulen Founder & Chief Market Strategist TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/options-e1636471121734.jpg265400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-19 09:22:302022-04-19 09:22:34The Many Uses of Option Delta
Recent rallies in the major indexes have had a hard time hanging onto their gains lately. ETFs like XOP (S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production), XME (S&P Metals & Mining), and XLU (Utilities) have been experiencing capital inflows. At the same time, other ETFs such as DIA (30-Industrials), SPY (500-Large Caps), IWM (2000-Small Caps), IYT (Transports), and QQQ (100-Nasdaq Largest Non-Financial) are still in the red for the year.
Our positions in energy and precious metal ETFs netted us a positive return, while our recent trades in the major stock index ETFs had already booked partial position profits, with the remainder of the positions stopping out for a small break-even profit.
As we experience record inflation numbers reported and central banks raising their lending rates, we are keeping our cash ready and closely monitoring key ETF sectors as compared to the major stock index benchmarks for clues regarding our location within the overall economic cycle.
From time to time, we get questions from our subscribers regarding inverse and leveraged ETFs. Inverse and/or leveraged ETFs are not appropriate for everyone. However, for some experienced traders, these tactical ETFs can provide alternative strategies for use in a bear market.
An inverse ETF is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) constructed by using various derivatives to profit from a decline in the value of an underlying benchmark. Inverse ETFs allow investors to make money when the market or the underlying index declines, but without having to sell anything short.
A leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a marketable security that uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index. While a traditional exchange-traded fund typically tracks the securities in its underlying index on a 1:1 basis, a leverage ETF may be structured for a 2:1 or even a 3:1 ratio.
These ETFs listed below track the underlying S&P 500 benchmark that represents 500 US large caps as selected by S&P’s Index Committee. These ETFs are examples of both inverse and leveraged ETFs:
SPY vs. SH (1:1 or 1x leverage) – SPY (Bull) is the most recognized ETF and is typically listed in the top ETFs for the largest AUM and greatest trading volume. SH (Bear) provides 1:1 inverse exposure to the S&P 500.
SSO vs. SDS (2:1 or 2x leverage) – SSO (Bull) seeks a daily 2x return of the S&P 500. SDS (Bear) provides 2:1 inverse exposure to the S&P 500.
UPRO vs. SPXU (3:1 or 3x leverage) – UPRO (Bull) seeks a daily 3x return of the S&P 500. SPXU (Bear provides 3:1 inverse exposure to the S&P 500.
The following chart gives us a visual of how the ETFs mentioned above are performing against each other over the past 15-months. It should be noted that inverse ETFs carry unique risks that traders should be aware of before participating in them. Some of the risks associated with inverse ETFs are compounding risk, derivative securities risk, correlation risk, and short sale exposure risk.
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered in March, all have now been closed at a profit! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successful trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/2022-04-12_19-05-38.jpg6841046adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-19 09:18:342022-04-19 09:18:37Major Indexes Continue To Be Outperformed By Energy & Metals
Historically, investors gravitate toward more defensive and commodity-focused sectors, such as precious metals, energy, commodities, and utilities, in late-cycle bull markets.
Recently, the stock market is beginning to show us signs that the bull market may be coming to an end. Commodities such as energy, grains, and precious metals have all experienced nice rallies. Price action also confirms money flow coming out of transports and into utilities.
In March 2022, the Dow Jones Utility Average crossed 1,000 for the first time in its nearly 100-year history as the utility sector is significantly outperforming the market this year.
Many investors believe that the XLU is the most effective risk-reducing equity ETF available and may be looking to the utility sector as a safe-haven play.
Other safe-haven markets that we are following closely are Gold, the U.S. dollar, and the Switzerland franc.
The transportation sector has dropped approximately -21.59% from its peak in November 2021. Market cycles are measured from peak to trough. Generally, traders consider a stock index in a bear market when its closing price drops at least 20% from its peak. The move in the XLU from 100.00 to 80.00 also represents a drop of 33.33% of the total 2020-21 bull market move.
On April 1st, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of truck transportation jobs fell in March after 21 consecutive monthly gains. Then on April 8th, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) downgraded multiple transportation stocks, citing “waving demand and price dives.” Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter told clients, “Given deteriorating demand outlooks and rapidly falling freight rates, we downgrade ratings on 9 of the 28 stocks in our coverage universe”.
The transportation index was created in July 1884 by Charles Dow and has long been viewed as a leading indicator of the broad market’s direction because economic demand shows up first in shipping orders. Historically, a down-turn in freight indicates a potential broad economic recession.
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered this month, five have been closed at a profit, one remains open, and we have locked in partial profits on that one as well! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe-havens, but that is not proving to be the case this time around. So if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there and how can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen from The Technical Traders sits down with Jim Goddard on HoweStreet.com to discuss oil, natural gas, gasoline, and precious metals’ latest moves. Oil had a blow-off phase as we saw the price jump from about $90 a barrel up to almost about $130 a barrel. Such big moves can do damage to the charts or price. Though we are seeing a lot of heavy volumes and big selling going on in oil, there’s still a downside potential in crude.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE OIL BLOW-OFF PHASE, NATURAL GAS, GASOLINE – LISTEN TO THE PODCAST
TO EXPLORE THE strategies in the Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. YOU’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Howestreet.jpg300400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-11 08:28:302022-04-11 08:28:40Oil Blow-Off Phase, Sanctions & Shortages Video
Welcome to the Technical Traders podcast. The show that brings you technically proven strategies and trade ideas from experts around the world. We’re going to help you make more money with less risk so that you can take your trading to the next level. Now here’s your host, Jim Goddard.
Jim Goddard: 00:49 My guest is Greg Dickerson. He’s the CEO of Dickerson International. You can find him online at dickersoninternational.com. Welcome to the show.
Greg Dickerson: 01:00 Hey, thanks for having me.
Jim Goddard: 01:02 Greg, where are you? And can you tell us a bit about Dickerson International?
Greg Dickerson: 01:07 I’m located in Charlottesville, Virginia, just outside of Washington, DC, home of the University of Virginia and the Darden School of Business, one of the top business schools in the country. Still, Dickerson International is my school of entrepreneurship. I’ve been an entrepreneur since 1997. And my long story short is I’ve bought, developed and sold over 250-million-real estate, started 12 different companies from the ground up, built and renovated hundreds of custom homes, commercial buildings, developed mixed subdivisions, things like that. So, that’s me in a nutshell. So what I’ve done is I’ve packaged everything that I know and everything I’ve learned over the past 25 years doing all of those things into some online courses. And then, I also offer one-on-one coaching. I work with people all over the world, doing all kinds of things, teaching them how to be a real estate developer, how to invest in real estate, how to do big commercial and multi-family real estate deals, and how to raise capital. I teach people how to buy companies, how to start companies from the ground up, and how to grow and scale their existing businesses. So that’s what I do and what Dickerson International is all about.
Jim Goddard: 02:16 Wow. So you take a good idea, and you make it bigger and better.
Greg Dickerson: 02:21 Exactly. I love to build things. I’m a builder. I’m a natural-born entrepreneur. I started as a young kid knocking on doors. I’m talking, you know, seven, eight years old, cutting grass, raking leaves, washing cars, babysitting your kids, whatever you needed to get it done. I would knock on your door and say, Hey, my name’s Greg. I live down the street, and I need to make some money. And my dad taught me at a young age; that if you want something, you need to go figure out how to make the money to buy it because I’m not going to give it to you. So, I wasn’t raised, you know, we were a middle-class family. My dad was career military. Nobody in my family were entrepreneurs. And you know, that’s just how I am wired. And I love to create. I love to build things. I love to solve problems. Make something out of nothing, and that’s what entrepreneurs do. We make things happen and get things done. We solve problems, and it’s very creative. It’s a lot of fun. Every day’s different, and every situation’s different. And like I said, I work with people all over the world doing all kinds of different things. So it’s very intellectually stimulating for me.
Jim Goddard: 03:17 So how did you get started with investing?
Greg Dickerson: 03:22 So back in 2008, 2009, my career was mainly creating small businesses to generate cash and to invest in other assets. And for me, I was a remodeling handyman contractor and ended up turning that into a $30 million building development business in about seven years. And I built 12 other companies along the way at the same time. And as I did all that 2008, 2009 happened, that I had to pivot. And I didn’t know anything about stocks, really. I kind of followed markets a little bit, but I had never invested in stocks, never invested in anything like that. When 2008, 2009, it happened. I had a good friend who had a restaurant down in the area where I was located, and he came from Wall Street and left that career and opened a little breakfast joint.
Greg Dickerson: 04:07 I was living on the outer banks of North Carolina at the time, which is where flight originated, where the Wright brothers took off. And he said, Greg, you said, you know, this is an opportunity to create generational wealth like we’ve never seen. I’m like, what are you talking about? He said the market is crashing. It’s about to hit rock bottom, and we can get in now. And, you know, everything you’ve ever needed to pay for will be taken care of with just a small investment. So we got together in his little breakfast shop and started watching the markets and trading stocks. And I made my first investment at the bottom of March 2009 when the Dow was 6,000 and the S&P was 600. And I was buying Ford. I think my first purchases were Ford stock at a $1.90, City Bank at like $1.19, Bank of America, I don’t know, $1.00 something. So that was my first foray into traditional markets.
Jim Goddard: 04:58 Is there anybody you really admire or who influenced you to become involved in real estate, financial markets, or coaching?
Greg Dickerson: 05:06 Yeah, so it all started with Rich Dad, Poor Dad. That was the first book that I read that really opened my mind to, you know, creating businesses that generate cash to invest in other assets. When I read that book, I wanted to be a rich dad. I didn’t want to be Robert Kiyosaki. I wanted to be the rich dad that he was talking about. Because he owned all the real estate. He had all the businesses, and he was making all the investments. So you know, I studied that, and that’s where I just said, okay, that’s what I’m going to do. And then, of course, back in the day, Donald Trump was hot in terms of his real estate, so I read his book for real estate. I read Sam Zelle, you know, there were a few other real estate investors that I had followed.
Greg Dickerson: 05:43 And then, of course, Warren Buffet for stocks, he was all the rage back then, for stock markets still is, I guess, but really back then he was really carving a path in stocks and then of course, you know, other people along the way, but the big core, pivot point for me was reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad. That’s where that really opened my mind to understanding how to put a lot of assets together, generate cash flow to pay for the things you need to sustain your life, and then invest the rest.
Jim Goddard: 06:12 What’s your investing philosophy? What set of principles, beliefs, or experiences drive your decisions?
Greg Dickerson: 06:20 I’m opportunistic. So I look for value wherever I can find it. And I like to make fewer bigger moves. I like to get in at the bottom. So you know, in stocks, it was 2008, 2009, and then I made big moves on every major pullback in the markets, including March 2020, that was my last big deployment of capital into the markets. And those are the types of things that I look for because I’ve been around long enough in cycles in real estate and stocks where good times never last and bad times never last. So I look for the big pullbacks, and that’s where I make nice moves, and then I exit at the top. So my main philosophy that I always tell everybody is that it’s more important to know the top than the bottom.
Greg Dickerson: 07:03 And I exit at the top, take my chips off the table. I’m not afraid to go to cash and sit in cash and wait, so from equities, that’s kind of how I make those moves, and I compound cash. That’s always my goal to grow and scale a pile of cash real estate; it’s been the same way. I want to buy value, add value, create value, and then exit when the time is right. So that’s kind of how I approach things and look at things. And from a real estate standpoint, it could be from the ground up. It could be adaptive reuse; it could be a major value add. I’m not a margin player. I’m not looking for yield. I’m not a yield guy; I’m a margin guy. So I’m looking for big moves, big margins, not little yields.
Jim Goddard: 07:44 How important is it for a person to have some kind of philosophy they stick to when they’re investing?
Greg Dickerson: 07:52 It’s extremely important. So that’s the key to success in any business, any investment, you need to have a thesis, and you need to have the discipline to stick to your thesis, and you need to be self-aware enough to where if your thesis is wrong or not working, you need to pivot and make a new one. But if you’re day trading or swing trading, obviously you need a system, and you need the technicals that you operate by, and you want to journal those things and stay steady with that approach. And if you’re more opportunistic like me, then you just stick to your entry and exit valuations and your margins so that you know that you’re covered. So it’s extremely important. Discipline is huge.
Jim Goddard: 08:29 We’ll have more with Greg Dickerson right after this.
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Jim Goddard: 08:55 Welcome back. We’re speaking with Greg Dickerson. Greg, are there any investment myths that people should know about?
Greg Dickerson: 09:06 I really don’t know. I mean, you hear that you see that. And then, of course, you hear Santa Claus rallies, and we didn’t have that this year. I don’t know that those things hold true. They might. I haven’t really tracked them and backcheck them. But if you are going to adhere to something like that and buy into it, you definitely want to fact-check it and make sure that it’s accurate. And from what we’ve seen in the markets, really nothing is. Markets are cyclical. You know, these days, headline risk, you know, headlines can move markets in a major way. It’s a very different market now than it used to be. But like I say, the most important thing to know is the top. And I called the top 2018, 2019. I called the top recently back in November, December, and I invested in crypto as well as equities and real estate. So again, the key is to know that top.
Jim Goddard: 09:57 What favorite type of analysis or indicator do you find helps you time your investments?
Greg Dickerson: 10:03 In the markets, you know, it’s major moves. So I look for when I’m deploying, I’m looking for 10% or better pullbacks to make big moves on in terms of stocks and equities. Crypto’s a little different because crypto can correct 30, 40%. So I just look for those major pullbacks that are moving to previous, you know, support and resistance levels. I look at the moving averages; of course, the 200 days is a big one. Major moving averages and some, you know, retracement levels are kind of important when you’re looking at stocks and swing trading and, you know. And then, I also look at the macro. A lot of people say, show me the charts, and I’ll tell you the news. Well, news moves markets, especially right now with the geopolitical climate, with interest rate fed policy, we’ve been in a bull market since 2009 and, an easy Fed, monetary policy environment. So very different climate that we’re getting ready to move into now. So you really have to pay attention to the macro as well. So I look at the macro, then I take that, apply technicals to it and make my decisions based on that. But if I’m looking to deploy, I want to deploy on at least a 10% or better pullback in the equities.
Jim Goddard: 11:17 You talked about a big influence in your life in the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad; any other recommended reading you could give our listeners.
Greg Dickerson: 11:26 Yeah. So it depends on what you’re looking to do. Generally, what I’ve done in my career is I’ve found the best in the businesses doing what I want to do, and I go study them. So I love to read biographies. So I’ve recently read a great biography—Steve Schwartzman, Michael Eisner, Warren Buffet, Sam Zelle. Donald Trump; love him or hate him early in his career. I read how he did what he did. So Keith Hall a big developer in Texas. So, you know, I’d love to read biographies, some books, and learn from people you know, the intelligent investor by Ben Graham. Although, you know, today’s world is very different from those guys grew up in, in terms of value investing and things.
Greg Dickerson: 12:10 Of course, as we know, valuations have been kind of out the window. But as far as business and mindset books, all of the greats. So my core three books that really changed my life were Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, and the Power Positive Thinking by Norman Vincent Peale. So those two books, especially, and then How to Win Friends and Influence People, Dale Carnegie. But you know, anything by those guys and then all the classics like Anthony Robbins, Zig Ziegler, Jim Rohn, Brian Tracy. All of the sales, success, and mindset gurus, if you want to call them. But I’m very highly self-educated. I’m really into personal, professional development. I’ve never had any music on any of my devices, going all the way back to the Sony Walkman. It was all business books and mindset, personal, professional development. And then the, you know, then the CD Walkman, and then, you know, I’ve got the 80-gig iPod, nothing but business books on it. And then even today, that’s all I listen to or you know, like this business podcast and podcast, things like that.
Jim Goddard: 13:19 If you’re an investor or potential client for somebody, how can you spot a scam? You’ve been around long enough; I’m sure you can sniff one out in a second, but for people getting into investing, so many people say things like guaranteed returns, and you’ve been around long enough, so you know, there is no such thing. How do you sniff them out?
Greg Dickerson: 13:39 Well, that’s one, if somebody’s offering a guarantee or can’t fail, if it sounds too good to be true, those types of things. In today’s world, there are some things that are too good to be true that actually work. But, as far as the individual goes, if they don’t know their business and know their numbers at an intimate level, then that’s a red flag. You know, if somebody’s desperate for the deal, you have to send your money today, or you’re going to miss out. You know, that’s a red flag. And then, of course, you know, anybody who’s guaranteeing anything or telling you that, you know, the number just goes up that they’re doesn’t go down, and it’s never going down, and it will never go below a certain level. Those types of things are red flags. But, you know, today it’s pretty tricky. There are a lot of scams out there and very sophisticated scams.
Jim Goddard: 14:23 What’s the best advice you ever received?
Greg Dickerson: 14:26 Never stop learning.
Jim Goddard: 14:30 Simple as that.
Greg Dickerson: 14:32 Simple as that, never stop learning. And I mean, there are all kinds of different pieces of wisdom I’ve received along the years. But one thing I’ve learned in my career is the more you know, the more you realize you don’t know, and it’s what you don’t know that really holds you back. But even more important to that, you know, Mark Twain, “it’s what you think, you know, that just ain’t so.” You know, that can get you. Knowledge is everything. And then, you know, the application of that knowledge to the right vehicle at the right time and the right way with the right amount of leverage, you know, is really the key. But yeah, at the end of the day, I would not be where I’m at if I had not continued my education and just kept pouring into myself. So when you sum it all up, that’s probably the best advice I’ve ever received is just never stop learning. Never think that you’ve arrived. You can always go deeper. You can always learn more, and there’s always something out there that you absolutely don’t know that can just be a game-changer for you.
Jim Goddard: 15:28 My two favorite Mark Twain sayings, “the hardest thing in the world is to convince a fool that they’ve been fooled” and “golf, a perfectly good walk ruined.” Is there something you wish you would’ve known before you started trading and investing?
Greg Dickerson: 15:49 Yes, I mean, a lot more. I didn’t know anything before I started trading and investing. So, you know, I wish I would’ve had more education early on in that regard, you know, what I knew back then was work hard. You know, the harder you work, the better opportunities you’re going to have. So I just didn’t know what I didn’t know. So what I wish I knew back then was obviously what I know now was that you know how to raise capital and do bigger deals early on that I just didn’t think I could do. But when it comes to investing in, you know, equities and things like that, I just didn’t know. I just didn’t know anything about stocks, didn’t know anything about the markets and, you know, gold. I had one guy, you know, years ago it was probably 2004. The gold bugs around me were all older and, you know, 200, 300 ounces back then, and they were telling me Gold’s going to hit 1200 an ounce. And I’m like, you’re crazy. And man, if I would’ve put a little chunk of change in gold back then, it would’ve worked out pretty good.
Greg Dickerson: 16:43 And then, of course, the big one, I didn’t know anything about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency when that came around and, you know well, I would’ve loved to have known about that ten years ago and put, you know, a thousand bucks in 10 years ago would be worth some billions of dollars right now.
Jim Goddard: 16:56 Sure. Are non-fungible tokens, are they in the same category as Bitcoin was 12 years ago?
Greg Dickerson: 17:06 No, no, not at all. Bitcoin’s a very different thing in and of itself. It’s a digital gold. It’s digital property. So it’s very different than NFTs. NFTs are a lot of different things, but Bitcoin is one thing, and it’s a limited supply of one thing that’ll ever be created. And it’s got a certain amount of interest at an institutional level, where NFTs are fads and trends that will come and go.
Jim Goddard: 17:35 Before we go, is there any topic or financial or business practice that you’re really passionate about?
Greg Dickerson: 17:43 In terms of business practice, leadership, obviously, that’s one of the keys to the success that I’ve had is developing myself into a great leader and teaching and helping other people do that from a business practice and, from an investment standpoint, just, curiosity in general, just always being curious, always trying to figure out why and how things work and, you know, understanding that everything these days, it’s all trends. Markets are cyclical; things come and go, good times never last and bad times never last. It’s all about the trend, understanding the trend, and investing and taking advantage of that trend and not going against it.
Jim Goddard: 18:21 Greg, thank you so much for being here on technical traders.
Greg Dickerson: 18:25 I appreciate it. Thank you for having me.
Jim Goddard: 18:27 My guest has been Greg Dickerson, CEO of Dickerson International. You can find him online at dickersoninternational.com. I’m Jim Goddard.
The technical trader’s podcast or an expression of opinion only, and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument. This information is for general information and educational purposes. Only guests on the show are not compensated for their participation to view our full disclaimer, visit our website: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris sits down with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money to talk about their Precious Metals forecast and the maximum financial risk. The big question is, in what phase are we in the stock market cycles? Are we in this pullback phase, or have we already seen the market top out? Energy has been on fire, precious metals are just starting to break out, and utilities are at an all-time high.
Behind the scenes, it feels like we are in this red zone, the peak, the maximum financial risk we think you can put investment capital into. The key takeaway from this overall stock market cycle is where we are “in the risk.” If you put money right now in the market, there’s very little upside left before the market has a re-evaluation event which is more or less a bear market.
Overall, we are at a unique time in the markets. Remember, typically the stock market moves before the economy. So if the economy is collapsing we will usually see the stock market bottom before that. Conversely, the stock market will peak right before the economy follows suit.
Click on the link below to watch the LATEST PM FORECAST & MAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISK report
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/sprott.jpg300400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-11 07:18:122022-04-11 07:18:16Maximum Financial Risk & PM Monthly Projections With Sprott – Video
Since the USD plays such a strong role in global economics, we thought it appropriate to see how the USD performance is vs. other currencies and investments.
For the U.S. consumer, a strong USD means U.S. goods are more expensive in foreign markets. For U.S. companies that buy or sell products/services globally, a strong USD means they are less competitive. A strong dollar is a significant headwind that erodes the profits of U.S. multinationals.
Since we trade and invest in ETFs, it is especially interesting to see how the USD has been trading in 2022 compared to Gold (GLD), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Gold is the top performer, followed by the Australian dollar (AUD) and the U.S. dollar (DXY). We can also see on the following chart the recent recovery rally in both the SPY and QQQ. Amazingly the QQQ has recovered half of its 2022 loss in just the last few weeks.
DXY – US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX – DAILY COMPARISON CHART
The following chart from www.finviz.com shows us that the USD has strengthened vs. the Japanese yen, Eurodollar, British pound, and Switzerland franc. But also that the USD has weakened vs. the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar.
The AUD, NZD, and CAD reflect the impact of rising energy and commodity prices. The JPY reflects Japan’s negative interest rate as well as its dovish economic policy. While the EUR, GBP, and CHF are suffering from capital outflows due to the impact of Europe’s Russia Ukraine war.
US DOLLAR YEAR TO DATE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE VS MAJORS
Since May 25, 2021, the USD has been steadily appreciating as a stand-alone market. We can also see that the USD has been in a bullish upward-sloping channel. The USD has offered many buying opportunities at both its bottom trendline as well as its Fibonacci support levels. It continues to make higher highs and higher lows.
The USD remains attractive as it is the primary reserve currency for government central banks. The FED, with its recent rate hike, has signaled that it is planning on additional increases. The USD is considered a safe-haven investment and benefits from rising energy prices as the U.S. is a major producer of global oil and natural gas.
The Australian dollar enjoyed a strong rally in 2020 as it gained more than +45%. After hitting resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension, the AUD corrected about 38% of its up-swing. This correction ended when buying resumed at the AUD previous high or the 1.000 support level. Since Jan 2022, the AUD has already appreciated about 9%. This is similar in both percentage and time frame to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) equity markets.
AUD USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR – DAILY CHART
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered this month, four have been closed at a profit, two remain open, and we have locked in partial profits on those as well! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Picture1-1.png415624adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-11 07:16:172022-04-11 07:16:26U.S. Dollar (USD) Is On Our Radar!
