Archive for category: $SPY

Over the past few weeks and months, we have been writing to all our members that this next move should be massive in the US majors.  We have been very clear in our analysis and have shown the price action identified as the highest probability outcome with our Advanced Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system.  Today, we are going to share more information that will help you understand what to expect over the next few days and weeks.

Today’s price action was very unique and presented a series of critical trade levels that we will continue to watch through the end of this week and into next week.  The identification of support and resistance levels near the apex of a pennant or flag formation is critical because these apex moves tend to include some wild price rotation before the new trend is established.  As of today, we have two new levels we are watching : support at 2623 and resistance at 2658.  The triple top formation in the ES today was indicative of major resistance near 2658.  We don’t believe this level will hold for very long as our ADL price modeling system is predicting a price breakout next week.

The longer term ES Weekly chart shows the pennant formation, lower price support channels and the two intermediate support and resistance levels drawn on the price chart, above.  Our interpretation of the current market setup is that price may continue to rotate in somewhat violent modes until the market completes this phase.  The breakout price move we are expecting could happen any minute between now and the end of next week.  We believe this is the most likely time span for price to attempt this breakout move.

This chart below is a Weekly YM chart with the ADL price modeling system applied to it.  This analysis is reserved for our subscribers but within a 2~3 week span, our modeling system is predicting a possible 10~14%+ price move in the DOW and US majors.  Most traders don’t have a clue what to expect, we know what should happen.

We are providing our members with more details of our ADL price modeling system showing these later weekly levels have a very high probability of success based on past price analysis.  Historical prices are showing a 90~100% probability of success for these projected price levels.  Therefore, unless the future price is vastly different from the previous 15 instances of this ADL price DNA marker, we have high confidence that price will attempt this massive move within the next 14+ days.

We are uniquely positioned right now to take advantage of this without excessive risk.  We will continue to evaluate new trades with regards to potential for success while considering risk.  Our objective is to not overweight our positions too heavily into one aspect of the market.  Although, we will add that once confirmation of this move is evident, we may find multiple opportunities for quick profitable trades for our members.  Get ready for some exciting price action and for this move that no one is expecting.

Join fellow traders from over 87 different countries and see how our technical analysis and trade setups can grow your account – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

Yesterday we shared the chart of our underlying asset for our trade setup, and below is a chart of the ETF we entered and it has jumped over 6.6% or $4.42 a share already!

YESTERDAYS TRADE SETUP CHART IN THE UNDERLYING ASSET

OUR TRADE ENTRY, RALLY, AND PROFIT TAKING TARGET REACHED!

We are preparing for another trade alert as another one of these setups is unfolding!

If you want to see the new trade that was issued today for TheTechnicalTraders.com members and take advantage of this opportunity, then do yourself a favor and sign up for our QUARTERLY or better yet the 2-Year membership and save huge on your long-term success! It tough to beat daily pre-market videos telling you what to expect that day, and trade alerts that actually generate profits every week!

Here at Technical Traders Ltd., our inbox has been full of questions from followers regarding the recent market rotation and concerns about another downside move. We understand trading is an emotional process and that fear and anxiety often play a very big role in decision making – we get it.  So, before the markets open for trading this week, we wanted to share some exciting news and we hope this helps to settle some emotions.

As you are probably well aware of by now, our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling systems has been nailing the markets for the past 7+ months for both intermediate and intraday highs and lows.  One of the most powerful components of this predictive modeling system is watching for price correlation to modeled behavior and watching for what we call “price anomalies”.  We have mentioned this before in previous research articles.

Before we continue, its important to mention that we will no longer be posting these (ADL) forecasts and trade setups publically. This analysis is reserved for our subscribers and for our own trading to take full advantage of the markets.

Price anomalies occur when the current market price is under some level of pressure (upward or downward) that pushes price away from the predicted levels.  This happens with global news events, earnings events and other market psychology events.  Our opinion is that price reacts to these external events over a relatively short period of time, then, as the events settle, price reacts to the traditional behavioral models predicted by the ADL modeling system and attempts to recover to near these predicted levels.  Let’s take a look at a recent example of these ADL price anomalies and how the work.

In this example below, we see two recent weekly ADL price anomalies and how the market price reacted to “revert” back to the ADL predicted price levels.  We believe these types of events are price level exceptions that occur with some regularity in the markets and can be traded to our advantage for some incredible gains.  Pay attention to the DASHED baby blue lines from the ADL modeling system that shows the predicted price levels.

Now, lets take a look at a current Weekly YM chart to see how the current price anomaly is setting up.  Almost similar to the first price anomaly in the upper example, yet in the opposite direction, the current price anomaly is indicating an incredible 10~14%+ upside price potential within the next 2 to 5 weeks.  We believe this upside potential is being ignored by much of the market because of the recent downside price pressures that have kept a lid on the upside breakout.  We do believe that once that downward sloping YELLOW price channel line is breached, the upside price move will begin and likely be a VERY FAST move up.

Lastly, you might be asking yourself how we reconcile various ADL predictive price levels that could present various or conflicting predictive pricing?  First, please understand that the ADL price modeling system is just one of the tools that we use in our analysis.  Secondly, the data you are not seeing which is only shown to the researchers and analysts is the “predictive probability” of each predicted price level.

We know which levels have a higher degree of probability than others – thus we can use this knowledge to determine which outcome is more likely.  Also, more recent analysis from the ADL pricing model with high degrees of price correlation and probability are, in our opinion, more relevant to the future price levels than older price analysis.  With our ADL predictive modeling system, we can see many days, weeks or months into the future – the trick is to understand how to use it properly.

In closing, with all the fear and emotions running at high levels, we wanted to settle our readers minds a bit with this analysis and these charts.  If you take a look at the predictive price level for this next week, the YM should attempt to move back to near 25,540.  The following week, the YM should be attempting a more aggressive upside move to near 27,500 or higher.  We are just waiting to see that YELLOW price channel line be broken before this price move initiates.

If you want to learn more about our analysis or maybe you just want winning trade alerts, take a look at our Wealth Building Newsletter service and see how we can assist you in finding and executing great trades every month.  We have members from 87 countries that following our daily technical analysis video and trade alerts each week.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

One very important component of the continued research we, www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, conduct into price, price patterns and price rotation is the study and application of Fibonacci price modeling.  As you have seen with some of our other charting and modeling tools, we have invested a great deal of time and energy to create useful price modeling tools to assist us in our daily research and analysis.

Our Fibonacci price modeling tool is another adaptive learning model that is capable of adapting to price rotation by learning from past and current price variances as well as repeated price pattern formations.  This tool is a one of a kind type of project that we covet with a great deal of respect.

Today, we are going to illustrate how this modeling system assists us and how we attempt to use it to identify trading opportunities and longer-term potentials for success.  As of April 24, the markets closed dramatically lower – by almost -2% on average.  This move lower pushed many of the current prices into a unique price pattern that may be very temporary.  We will start by attempting to illustrate the NQ chart with our Fibonacci price modeling system and we want to make one thing very clear….

Today’s downside price rotation, excluding the ES chart, setup a new potential for future bearish trending if the current price is unable to recovery back above the key Fibonacci Bullish Price Level.

Let’s get started with the NQ chart.  The first things we want you to concentrate onto are the YELLOW price channel and the PURPLE price high/low ranges established by price rotation.  It is critical that you understand how price rotation, pure price, sets up all of the analysis that this modeling system completes.  Nothing else is used other than price and time.  The most recent price high and low levels (in most cases) establish the Fibonacci price range.  This is what we use to make trending decisions.

This current NQ chart has rotated lower and is currently telling us that we should expect further downside price activity as long as price stays below the Fibonacci Bullish Price Level.  Although, our ADL price modeling system is warning that the markets will enter a strong upside rally within days.  Thus, it is our opinion that this recent move is a “wash-out” low price rotation that is attempting to fade the longs.  The NQ Fibonacci price high is at 6867 and the Fibonacci price low is at 6307 – watch for these levels to be breached before trend accelerates.

The ES chart is set in a similar price formation to the NQ chart.  Highlighted on this chart are three primary components of our Fibonacci price modeling system; the projected price levels, the Bullish & Bearish Fibonacci key price levels and the key market price rotation markers (tops and bottoms/price rotation points).  Understanding our modeling system is key to your better understanding the research that we provide to you.  On the right side of this chart, we’ve highlighted two key projected price levels  with lines drawn in CYAN (light blue).  We want you to pay special attention to those projected price levels because they became key support and resistance just a few weeks ago.  If you understand the significance of this example, you’ll begin to see how past price rotations attempt to predict future price turning points using advanced Fibonacci concepts and theory.

IMPORTANT NOTE: If all of this is a little to advanced to understand, that’s ok too. Maybe you don’t want to understand or learn, and just want nothing but our best trade setups and alerts? Well, members can have our SMS trade alerts so they get only our Buy, Stop, and Profit Taking alerts. Meaning you have trade like a pro and only spend 10-30 minutes a weak to adjust a position or enter a new one as you receive an alert!

This ES chart is showing a similar analysis to that of the NQ – expect continued bearish price action unless the current Bullish Fibonacci price level is breached @ 2718.50.  Again, we believe this current downside price move is a “wash-out” low price rotation within a bullish trend.  One of the reasons we believe this to be the case is clear if you understand price rotation.  Look at the entirety of the move recent price rotation.  After establishing the key low price bottom, price has failed to attempt to take out that low.

Remember, price must always attempt to establish new highs or new lows through price rotation within Fibonacci theory.  Therefore, until that low is breached, and as long as new higher low has been created, price is failing to commit to new lower lows.  Thus, it must be attempting to commit to higher highs.  The ES Fibonacci price high is at 2718.50 and the Fibonacci price low is at 2552.00.

The YM chart below provides the clearest picture, in our opinion, of the detailed Fibonacci price rotation process.  Very similar setups in price are still in place between all three charts.  Yet, the price rotation on the YM chart provided clear confirmation that price was attempting to advance rather than collapse recently.  The Bullish Fibonacci Price Level on the right side of the chart was breached and confirmed three weeks ago with a close above 24135.  The NQ and ES did not achieve this key price element in Fibonacci theory.

Additionally, the BLUE downside price projection point was very shallow compared to the recent peak high. This is typically a sign that any price rotation may be shallow as well and short lived.  As of the recent closing, the current close is below the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level, thus we are expecting some potential weakness in price until it advanced back above this level.  Yet, our believe that this “wash-out low” is a process of targeting near priced longs is still valid.  If, at the end of this week, price is back above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level, we will have further confirmation that this downside move was just a “wash-out low”.  The YM Fibonacci price high is at 24827 and the Fibonacci price low is at 23306.

Lastly, we are going to show you a much longer term Monthly SPY chart running our Fibonacci price modeling system for comparison.

When you look at this chart below and compare the price action you see to the previous chart, remember this Monthly chart is really the key to the longer term price potential.  As of right now, the current price is below the Bearish Fibonacci Price Level, which indicates a reason to be concerned with potentially further downside price activity.  Yet, the projected Fibonacci price levels have clearly defined support and resistance at, or very near to, the current price rotational high and low.  This would indicate that the current price rotation is within expected ranges and until a new closing price low is established below the 253.70 level.  Any downward price move will find support near 246.30 (the GREEN projected price level).

Price MUST advance +4% from current levels to abate any downside pressure resulting from this recent move.  In other words, we need to see a solid price advance over the next 5+ trading days, before the end of April, to technically qualify any further advance higher based on this Monthly Fibonacci modeling system.  Of course, the Daily and Weekly models will tell us a much faster and more detailed shorter-term Fibonacci price model for this same price rotation.

We’ve received hundreds of comments regarding our Adaptive Predictive Learning (ADL) price modeling system and we love to hear how all of your are enjoying our research.  This Fibonacci price modeling system, once you understand it as well as we do, is a very powerful price modeling tool that helps us identify unique opportunities in the markets for our clients.  Each of these tools provide unique benefits and understanding as to what to expect in the future.  We try to condense all of this into easy to understand daily updates for all of our valued members so you don’t have to spend decades trying to learn and understand all of this.

Currently, our ADL price modeling system is telling us the markets will attempt to rocket higher within 3~5+ weeks.  You’ve probably seen that research or can view it on our web site or from our free email newsletter.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system, is warning us that price could fall below support if it does not rally back above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Levels as our ADL model is predicting.  Thus, we are suggesting this current downside price rotation is likely a “wash-out” price low that may become somewhat meaningless in the near future.

Follow our Daily video forecasts and our future research to learn more about how we help our clients find profits in these moves.  We are already positions for what we believe will be the best opportunities for success with our members.  Join us and learn how we can help you find greater success – visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.