US Equities Set For Further Advances As Q2 Earnings Start

The upside price moves recently in the US Equities markets have been dramatic.  While many people believe the US Equity markets are overvalued and setting up for a top, we believe just the opposite – that the US Equity market and strong US Dollar are attracting capital and investment from numerous internal and external sources.  We also believe the Q2 2018 earnings season, which is just about to begin, could be an additional driving force for further price advances – with big upside moves ahead.

 

There are really three things at work in the global markets right now:

Strong US Dollar and global trade/policy issues: these are driving concerns and economic sustainability issues in many foreign nations and attracting investments as the US Dollar continues to strengthen against many foreign currencies.

Foreign Debt/Economic Sustainability issues: the facts that economic cycles, as well as political and social concerns, have roiled many foreign markets, elections and policies in combination with somewhat out of control debt levels in some countries is starting to weigh on investors.  Yes, strategic investors will still be looking for opportunities, but longer-term investors are seeking risks everywhere and are searching for protected investments – not risky deflationary investments.

Leadership Changes/Challenges: as we have all recently seen, there are a number of political leadership and regional economic and policy challenges that are underway at the moment.  Italy, Greece, Malaysia, Mexico, Denmark, Belgium and a host of others are all in the process of restructuring policies, objectives and SOP (standard operating procedures) to address new demands from their people and the world.  What was acceptable, nearly 24+ months ago, is now just not the case any longer.  The result is that leadership must adapt to the new demands of the people and economic environment.

Simply put, there is so much going on throughout the rest of the world in terms of currency valuations, global trade and policy issues, debt levels and economic sustainability concerns as well as leadership concerns and dramatically changing political and economic environments that investors are actively seeking some level of “standard of protection” for their capital..  And the only places on the planet, right now, that offer that standard are the US, Canada, and Great Britain. Our opinion is that, soon enough, the only economies on the planet that will be capable of handling the ROI and capital requirements of the world will be the most mature and dynamic economies on the planet.

 

Keeping this in mind, as we near the Q2 US earnings season, expect the following to play out:

– Technology will likely continue to shine with earnings growth and increased subscriber bases.  Netflix, Hulu, Microsoft, Amazon and a host of other will likely surprise with earnings over the next few weeks.

– Industrial standards like Disney, Comcast, Charter Communications, Sony, Marvel and many others will likely support strong earnings and forward guidance.

– Manufacturing and Chemicals will likely be positive to mixed overall.  Some companies will likely issue strong forward guidance while others may issue weaker guidance as a result of foreign market slowdowns.

– Biotech and healthcare will likely produce strong results overall as the past quarter has likely been a “lean operational process” for many not knowing what to expect throughout the next 12+ months.

– Weakness may be seen in some isolated instances with companies that may be more exposed to global demand and raw material costs (oil, copper, hard materials).  Yet we believe the outcome of this Q2 earnings season will be moderately strong overall.

 

What does this mean for the markets?

This 240 Minute ES chart shows the recent upside price action as well as the recent breakout to new highs (above 2800 for the first time since March 2018).  These upside price channels are likely to hold going forward and we expect earnings to drive prices to near or above 2900 (new all-timehighs) relatively quickly in the ES.  As we have been highlighting, we believe the ES and YM have the strongest potential for upside price moves compared to the NQ.

 

This Daily SPY chart clearly shows the rotational lows followed by upside price advances that are indicative of the recent price swings.  These deep rotational lows continue to setup “higher low” price levels that allow technicians to understand price pivot formations.  Each of these rotations sets up an opportunity for skilled traders to jump into the next upside move for profits.  The recent breakout of new highs indicates we could be in for a dramatic move to well above $290 throughout the earnings season.

 

Lastly, this 240 Minute YM chart helps to illustrate the upside potential of the DOW & Transports Index.  The last upside swing in price from July 7th till July 11th totaled about 800 points.  If that move replicates with this new upside swing, we could see another +800 point move higher from recent lows near 24,500.  This would indicate an upside potential to near 25,300 or higher.

 

Make sure you are positioned for these moves through this next earnings season.  If our estimates are correct, we should see some fantastic trading opportunities over the next 30+ days.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can assist you in capturing greater profits and greater success with our advanced research and market reporting, Daily market videos, detailed trading signals and more.  Join the hundreds of other traders that follow our research every day to create greater successes.

Also, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeMarketResearch to read all of our most recent free research posts.  We believe you’ll quickly see the value in what we provide our members and our visitors by reading and understanding how we have continued to stay ahead of these market moves for months.

Chris Vermeulen

China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos

Recently, quite a bit of news has been originating from Malaysia, China and other areas of South East Asia.  Much of it is concerns with multi-billion dollar projects and excessive corruption and graft.  Malaysia is taking the lead with this issue so far with the new Mahathir administration.  Yet, we believe these issues are far-reaching and could result in quite a bit of market turmoil over the next few months – possibly much longer.

What is at risk is the exposure of “cooked books” across much of China, India and likely throughout the globe with infrastructure and real estate projects that were designed to boost numbers while hiding real economic concerns.  You may remember we alerted our members and the general public to this concern in March 2018 – nearly 4 months ago in this blog post.  If you have not read our multi-part research post regarding how China has set itself up for a massive economic collapse, please take a minute to read all of our earlier research.

How has this Ponzi scheme been setup to play out for so long?  Our assumption is that it goes something like this.  In late 2009/early 2010, China was feeling the crunch of the global credit market crisis and made an attempt to push easy credit out to internal and external infrastructure projects in an attempt to keep the manufacturing and export sectors in China clicking right along.  The objective was to keep building, while the capability was available and the supply was plentiful. The only thing China needed to do was to make it easy for capital (loans) to be acquired for builders and buyers.

Much like what happened throughout most of the world, China took advantage of an already steady economy to avoid any contraction in real economic output by creating capital out of thin air and allowing their banking institutions to loan capital for massive projects.  This fueled a huge wave of investment and speculation throughout most of Asia – including external projects like those in Malaysia, Africa, India and many other countries.  What we are learning, though, is that the projects may have been much more nefarious than we originally thought.

For example, the 1MDB investigation in Malaysia has shown that graft, corruption, nepotism and a host of other issues are raising many questions as to how and where multiple hundreds of billions of dollars vanished?  It appears one component of the 1MDB and other project were a commitment for the infrastructure project materials to be purchased from Chinese manufacturers and the payment schedule for said materials were set to be transmitted well before these materials were actually delivered.  In other words, China made a capital commitment to loan a portion of capital for an international project with the commitment being to purchase materials from Chinese manufacturers where the host country would also have a capital repayment agreement as their joint partnership in this project.  The problem was that China never really delivered on the materials and the host country, in some cases, has already paid for 80%+ of the project costs.  This is a classic “I’ll gladly pay you in advance for materials and work that I may never EVER see”.

In terms of how this type of deal cooks the books, think of it like this.  China just “booked” a $400 billion project where China must contribute 10~15% of the capital costs and the host country contributes the rest.  This results in a “sale” of $400 billion on the books with additional sales going out to manufacturers and suppliers.  As the host country begins payments for this project, China can quickly recover actual costs because they have not delivered much in terms of raw materials or actual building materials for this project.  Meanwhile they are bilking the host country out of hundreds of millions or billions on a “phantom project” that may never be completed.

It all seems to work well for the books because as long as no one actually finds out what is happening, China is selling “vapor projects” to other nations and booking profits for simply making a commitment – a shell game with billions, possibly trillions, at risk.

At the end of the day, China shows multiple massive infrastructure projects and this boosts their GDP, employment, and manufacturing data while covering the raw material and labor costs by sucking real revenues from host nations.  As long as the host nation does not lose faith in the deal or ask too many questions, no one is the wiser and China can keep playing their shell game.

We believe all of this started to change in early 2018 when the Chinese consumer sentiment started to change and when President Trump began to disrupt the “global think” in terms of trade, multi-national deals, and future economic expectations.  As soon as the curtain was pulled back and questions started being asked, China came under real pressure as consumers, nations, and corporations began to question the ongoing financial and economic capabilities of China suspecting that it had over-extended itself, it’s credit capacity and cooked the books with phantom projects, income, and economic output.  The real threat comes when the shadow banking system in China collapses as well as the investment grade debt, corporate debt, and project liabilities become too great for collapsing revenue.  This is when the collapse will accelerate beyond anyone’s imagination.

Right now, we believe we are in the early stages of a discovery process that could roil the markets a bit over the next 2~6+ months.  Once consumers in China get an idea of what is actually transpiring (if they ever really find out), they will move into protection mode and prices will decline in a massive asset bubble collapse.  Global debt issues will likely be resolved by the legal systems in place in various countries and a series of defaults will likely take place.  When one of my partners was doing business in SE Asia, he quickly learned that most Chinese businessmen keep three sets of books; one for partners – showing a big loss, one for the government – showing enough of a loss to not pay too much in taxes, and the last (real) set of books that shows the real profit or loss.

We believe the fallout from all of this could drop the Chinese economic credibility to new lows and could result in a massive wave of legal and financial woes as the Chinese credit, banking, manufacturing and asset markets collapse because of this.  It will start small with the Chinese government trying to inject billions into the economy to shore up failing enterprises and banks.  But once the total scope of this shell game is exposed, we believe it could disrupt nearly all of the Asian and partner nations economies and could land many foreign and domestic state and business officials behind bars or worse.  This is the kind of thing the ends very badly for some people.

We have been paying very close attention to the unfolding events in China and SE Asia.  We believe, for now, the US Equities markets seem immune to most of this, yet we believe we will soon start to see some credit issues spill over as trade issues and corporate liability repayments may soon begin to falter.  Be prepared for an unknown or unforeseen event to unfold very quickly over the next 6+ months.  We are not suggesting that investors or traders prepare for an immediate collapse in the global markets, but we are suggesting that the Chinese Dragon economy could very quickly unravel into a Chinese Gecko with little to really support pricing and valuations.

Our Custom China/Asia index has already retraced more than 38.2% from a recent price peak.  As of right now, we are not calling this a collapse because we have yet to cross critical price levels to the downside.  A move below the 50% retracement level, for us, would raise some additional concerns.

 

The Hang Seng Index has recently rotated above long-term resistance and collapsed back to the 2015 peak (support).  You can see from our BLUE price trend channel that support could still hold near these lows, possibly prompting a further upside rally.  Yet, we are watching these support/price channel levels because any break of the MAGENTA support line in conjunction with a breach of the price channel would be an ominous technical trigger that bottom has fallen out of the Chinese equity market – and possibly resulting in a massive asset valuation crisis.

 

Lastly, our BRICs custom index chart is showing a much deeper price correction that has already established a new downside price channel (in RED).  This is one of the bigger concerns that we have in regards to this Chinese debt/liability fallout.  China may be able to absorb some, or most, of the crisis by nationalizing companies and increasing capital through central bank activities.  But what happens to the other foreign nations that are left holding the empty bag of these failed infrastructure projects?  They could be out hundreds of billions with nothing to show for it except a “Chinese IOU”.  This Chinese shell game to “cook the books” could result in a global crisis involving some of the weakest and most vulnerable nations on the planet.  Yes, the BRICs emerging markets could be taking a wild ride in the near future if the fallout from all of this extends as we believe it could.

 

Our opinions at this point is that China is in a very fragile position; protect itself from complete disgrace and economic collapse by going “all-in” with central bank and currency manipulation while delaying or canceling projects in an attempt to gain control of this mess; or orchestrate a planned and organized economic crisis event that exposes the shenanigans that have been ongoing for a decade or more while attempting to “save face” and maintain some level of credibility throughout the world.  Remember, one of the most important aspects of the Chinese culture is “Asian face”. The term implies that one never disrespect or disgrace a leader or person of power.  It is, in some ways, the most disgusting and horrid thing that can happen to anyone – to lose honor and respect in front of one’s peers.

China is stuck between the proverbial “rock and a hard place”.  The only option they have at the moment is the “controlled/planned economic crisis event” (to the best of their abilities) while praying that nothing massive hits the news wires which could cause further damage to their fragile footing.  If something (think Malaysia/Mahathir and neighboring countries) does hit the news wires to further erode China’s plans – it could result in an all-out collapse of the Chinese economy.  Something that has really not been seen in well over 500 years (prior to the Qing Dynasty: 1644-1912).

We are advising our clients with regards to this unfolding event and continue to dedicate a large number of resources toward protecting our clients from unexpected and unknown issues.  We have developed a unique set of trade positions that we believe assist our clients in executing successful future trading strategies as well as executing a protected style of trading based on our research and objective analysis.  Our job is to deliver success for our clients and to keep them aware of the market turns and risks as we find and execute successful trades.

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you create success, stay ahead of these market moves and deliver greater success for you as these incredible opportunities unfold over the next 6~24+ months.

Crude Oil Possibly Setting Up For A Big Downside Move

Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while.  Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets/economies as well as supply/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.

Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe.  When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high.  When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand.  The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out.

Current price rotation to the upside has reached and stalled near an upper price channel and coincides with our Tesla Vibrational Theory price arcs.  We believe this could be setting up for a big downside price move in the near future.  Our interpretation of this setup is that Oil will quickly find pricing pressures near the $74-$75 level and begin to move lower.

Before we continue much further, let’s take a look at some statistical data for the Month of July with Crude Oil.

Over 36 total months of scanned data (data going all the way back to 1983) we can determine the following :

**  All data related only to the month of July  **

Total price activity over those 36 total months:-$5.28

Total Monthly Positive Results = $49.78 spanning 24 total months – Averaging $2.07

Total Monthly Negative Results = -$55.06 spanning 12 total months – Averaging -$4.59

Largest Positive Month = +$8.47

Largest Negative Month = -$15.92

This data tells us that July is more often resulting in a positive price move (by a 2:1 ratio), yet the upside totals do not out perform the downside moves.  The downside price moves for July total nearly 10% more than the total upside price moves and equates to exactly half the number of instances (12 vs. 24).

This data suggests to us that any potential downside move in Crude could be well in excess of -$4.00 and could be as large as -$10.00 or more.  If our analysis is correct that Crude could rotate much lower based on our price channels and Tesla theory setup, we could be in for a move to below $64.00 ppb here soon if price confirms a breakdown on a close below $72.

This Daily Crude Oil chart shows the wedge formation and our Tesla price vibrational arcs that we believe are set up for a potential downside price rotation move.  Obviously, we can see that Oil has rotated within this channel at least twice before – which is why we believe this current downside rotation could have a high probability of happening.  Additionally, our predictive modeling system is suggesting price weakness this week in Crude Oil.

 

This Weekly Crude Oil Chart below shows the same pattern over a longer span of time.  Our belief that the $64.00 support level (shown as a horizontal CYAN support line) will be retested over the next 2~5+ weeks if this projected price rotation plays out could mean that if the $64.00 level is breached, we could see Oil fall to well below $60.00 ppb headed into the end of this year.

Consider this fact of data for a minute as we consider this possible price rotation.  Since 1983, using quarterly price data, the Q4 historical data show us the following:

Total Q4 Price Move: -$80.71 over 36 Q4 data points

Total Positive Q4 Data: +$85.87 over 14 data points – Averaging +$6.13

Total Negative Q4 Data: -$116.58 over 21 data points – Averaging -$7.93

Largest Q4 upside move: +$19.63

Largest Q4 downside move: -$56.04

Downside price action in Crude Oil is nearly 33% more predictable than upside price action in Q4 with the largest price changes reflecting almost +300% greater chance of downside price collapse than upside price rally.

We may be a bit early with our prediction near this upper price channel, but we believe this could be a super trade going into the end of this year.  We just have to wait for the move to accelerate and begin to rotate lower.

Have you been following our analysis recently?  Did you catch the upside price move in the US equities markets like we have been predicting for the past few months?  How about the moves in the metals markets – did you catch those too?  Want to learn how a small and very dedicated team of researchers and traders can assist you in developing greater success for your trading and help you stay ahead of these market moves?

Then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help.  Our members receive proprietary research, daily video content, detailed trading signals and much more to assist them in finding great trading opportunities and staying ahead of these crazy market moves.  Join the Wealth Building Trading Newsletter today to learn how we can help you become more successful.

Micron/China Holding Markets Back

Just before the July 4th holiday, the US equity markets were about to rally above a defined wedge formation that has been defining price range for the past 7+ days.  As the markets opened on July 3rd, prices had already started to rally and appeared to be ready to rocket higher by a decent amount.  Yet, by early morning, news that China had banned Micron chip sales in a patent case caused the markets to reverse quite steadily.  This news, as it relates to US chip manufacturers and a major part of the NASDAQ, creates a temporary speed bump in the perceived rally that we have been expecting for weeks.

The Technology sector makes up a very large component of the US major indexes.  Other than the DOW, technology firms are spread across nearly every sector of the US major indexes and this case may have some reach to it.  As the trade tariffs and trade issues continue to ramp up, these types of explosive news items can drive the markets up or down as the news hits.  We consider these external factors that push the market one way or another while the core market dynamics may want to drive prices in another direction.

Recently we showed a number of research posts indicating our proprietary predictive price modeling systems cycles and price projections that show the core market bias should be to the upside.  We believe these news events cause a price pause and an opportunity to take advantage of lower price rotation which moves against the core market dynamics.

This holiday week is certain to see news event drive price rotation as the volume is thin and many people are vacationing or out of town.  This means people will not be active in the markets as much and news events can push price in directions and trends that may not normally be as present in price.

This 240-minute chart of the ES shows the pennant/flag formation that we mentioned a few days ago.  We believe the support level near 2700 is key to the upside breakout that is likely to happen.  This pennant formation has already formed a completed 5 waves and should be pushing higher – although the news from China regarding Micron seemed to create a late price decline.  As long as that 2700 level holds, we believe the upside price move is the eventual play in this market.

 

This Weekly ES chart shows a longer-term perspective of the price rotation.  One can easily see the recent upside price rally from near 2550 to 2800.  The current downside price rotation, from 2800 to near 2700, appears to be aligning with our Tesla Vibrational price cycles and our time/price cycles in the form of a bottom cycle formation near July 15 with an upside price potential rally that could extend 4~7+ weeks.  Notice the GREEN vibrational range near the current price and notice the next outer RED range.  As we break the GREEN vibrational range, our Tesla theory suggests that price will attempt to move in the easiest direction towards the next vibrational range – the RED level.  This would suggest that price may attempt to rally well above 2800 within a trend that could last many months.

 

The NQ has reacted quite differently than the ES.  This 240 minute NQ chart shows the deeper price rotation recently as well as the pennant formation that has constrained price.  Additionally, one can clearly see the upside breakout of this pennant formation recently and the return of price to near-term support (near 7030). This return to support on the China news could indicate a renewed test of support before an upside move.  Although we don’t expect the NQ to rally as much as the ES and YM charts, we do still expect to see some upside price moves in the NQ over time.  7200 to 7300 would be our immediate upside targets.

 

This NQ weekly chart shows just how clean the upside move has been after the February price collapse.  While many people were initiating short positions thinking the markets were going to fall further, the rush of capital into the NASDAQ continued to drive capital valuations and appreciation.  Now, with Q2 earning right around the corner, we believe the NQ will rally a bit on earning news, yet fail to really push much beyond the 7400 level.  We believe the real earnings values will be in small caps, blue chips and the DOW and S&P.  We don’t believe we will see blowout earnings numbers from most of tech this time.

 

A move to near 7400 would be a renewed push to new NQ highs.  This would be a very positive move in the markets and would put incredible pressures on the shorts – creating a short squeeze.  Far too many people fail to understand that a large amount of foreign capital is trying to avoid devaluation and price depreciation.  Investors don’t like to sit on long-term holdings when a currency is devaluing excessively and stock prices (in that currency base) are devaluing as well.  It is like a double-whammy of loss for investors that can easily move that capital into something without these risks.  Therefore, as long as the emerging markets and foreign markets continue to experience some levels of price contraction, we believe the strong US Dollar and strong US Equity markets will be the “market of choice”.  This means a continued “melt up” as global traders rush to find an investment that can avoid the risks of local exchanges/equities.

Please don’t get caught off-guard with regards to this price rotation and what it means to the markets.  A massive price expansion pattern is setting up in the US markets that may drive prices much higher all the way through 2019 and possibly further.  We believe many of the major analysts have missed this pattern and we have positioned our loyal members to take advantage of this move in the future.

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of this market and stay on the right side of price trends.  You owe it to yourself to learn how we can deliver superior research and trading signals to help you find profits and better manage your trades.

Our articles, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors to explore the tools and techniques that discretionary and algorithmic traders need to profit in today’s competitive markets. Created with the serious trader and investor in mind – whether beginner or professional – our approach will put you on the path to win. Understanding market structure, trend identification, cycle analysis, volatility, volume, when and when to trade, position management, and how to put it all together so that you have a winning edge.

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Index Support Zones In Play For Bigger Upside Move

As we start the July 4th trading week, it is time to look at the current market setup for signs of future strength or weakness.  Yes, there is a lot of outside economic and geopolitical factors at play right now that could cause some major market moves, yet we continue to believe the US equities markets are setting up for another upside move after retesting support and shaking out some trades.

Recently, there has been quite a bit of chatter about foreign and US debt levels as well as credit cycle events that many industry leaders are concerned with.  Overall, yes, we have to be cautious of a pricing level revaluation as a result of the credit cycles that are changing.

As the US Fed increases rates, this puts pressures on a vast array of credit market events that may cause some pricing concerns and economic concerns as foreclosures and repossessions tick higher.  Yet, we believe the valuations within the stock market are currently based on a companies level of operations and ability to generate returns.  Therefore, we believe the Q2 earning season, which is about to befall us, should be a very clear indication at to how well or poorly the US stock market is fairing in regards to fair pricing.

This first chart, the ES 240-minute chart, clearly shows the WEDGE price pattern that we are following.  By our estimates, this pattern is nearly complete (showing the completed 5 wave setup) and this pattern should likely prompt a moderately strong upside price breakout before the end of this trading week.  Of course, the July 4th holiday will interrupt trading for a bit, but we believe the 2700 bottom/support levels are already in place and as long at that support level holds, the upside is the only outcome for this wedge formation.

 

This second chart is the ES Daily chart showing the same WEDGE formation over a longer span of time.  Notice the clear support channels and the resistance channel that has contained price over the past 20+ days.  This has been the nexus of the price decline and the root issue of much concern regarding downside price capabilities.

The one thing that many people fail to understand is that the historical price peaks and troughs are still indicative of Upside Price Channeling with higher troughs and higher peaks overall.  We believe the 2700 level will hold as support and the ES chart will begin an upside price swing that could likely result in a rally to 2800+ quickly.

To add a bit of a kicker to this analysis report, this, our custom Tesla Price Vibrational Cycles analysis is showing us that the 2.25% vibrational cycle is nearly complete and that price is holding above the green support zone as well as holding above the blue price support channel.  These Tesla Price Cycles operate as price boundaries and breakout zones.  When price nears one of these levels, depending on the previous price direction and activity, we should expect a potential price reversal or breakout pattern – depending on the setup.

Right now, the setup is “strong support with rotational price channeling showing an upside potential”.  This Tesla price cycle indicates that “as long as support holds, we should expect to see an upside breakout/trend with a potential for a move to $277.50 or $280+ as the final outcome.

This holiday week would be a perfect time to catch the markets by surprise with a big rally.  Although it may not happen, we believe there is a strong potential for a surprise breakout rally soon and we believe these support levels are proving strong enough to prompt further upside price rallies.  Even though many skills analysts are concerned about the credit cycles and global debt levels, we know the game can continue much longer than many people think it is possible to continue.  As the old saying goes, “don’t ever get married to a position”.  We are positioned for success if our analysis is correct and we will take small losses if support is broken and price moves lower.  We believe the shorts, which there are many at this point in time, are about to feel some serious “squeeze pressure” over the next few weeks.

Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trading solutions, better research and provide a top-tier solution for active traders.  If you like our research and find it helps you, then consider joining our other valued members in supporting our work and taking advantage of our solutions for active traders.  Want to know where this market is headed and what to expect throughout the end of this year and beyond – our members already know what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting for the next 5+ months.

Our articles, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors to explore the tools and techniques that discretionary and algorithmic traders need to profit in today’s competitive markets. Created with the serious trader and investor in mind – whether beginner or professional – our approach will put you on the path to win. Understanding market structure, trend identification, cycle analysis, volatility, volume, when and when to trade, position management, and how to put it all together so that you have a winning edge.

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER WITH CHRIS VERMEULEN

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Buy When They Cry, Sell When They Yell!

We have been pouring over the charts to find out what to expect over the rest of 2018 and our advanced predictive modeling tools are showing us a few key elements that all traders need to be aware of.  So, let’s get right to it.

First, the NASDAQ has likely neared or reached its peak near 7400 for the next few months.  Don’t expect the NQ to move much beyond 7400 and don’t expect a lot of volatility in the NQ over the next few months.  Our research shows the NQ should stall near 7400 and volatility should decrease through September (possibly).

Second, the ES/YM/Transportation sectors are poised for a very healthy rally over the next 3+ months or longer.  We believe a massive capital shift is underway that will drive capital from foreign markets and tech stocks into Blue Chips, Small Caps and the Transportation sector.

Third, the US dollar will likely continue to appreciate towards 122 after a brief price stall near 120.85.  120.85 is resistance that will probably cause the price advance to stall a bit before pushing higher.  The next resistance level is near 122 and is our next higher target.

Lastly, overall volatility will likely decrease in the general market as price trend continues to unfold.  The recent spike in the VIX has a lot of people wondering if we could see some type of deeper market rotation.  Our opinion is that these projected upside trends will begin after the July 4th trading week and surprise many traders.  Shorts will get squeezed very quickly as this upside trend unfolds.

Now, let’s take a look at some charts.  This, a Weekly US Dollar chart, shows the recent price channel breach as well as the clearly defined upside price trend.  120.85 is currently resistance near the 50% retracement level of the previous price downtrend.  This level will likely cause the price to stall a bit before advancing higher to the 122.00 level.  Overall, until something changes in the global markets or price pushes above the 123.65 level, we expect the US Dollar to continue to advance.

This, the Monthly Dow Jones Transportation Index, shows us the scope and amplitude of recent price swings as well as the price alignment of price rotation over the past 3+ years.  Notice that the last Fibonacci Arc Square aligns with price pullbacks and retracements much like the one originating near 2012 through 2014.  The point of this exercise is to understand how the price is supposed to react within this expansion and to attempt to predict the future upside targets based on these moves.  It is our opinion that the Transportation index will rally to near $12,200 before this move is over.  The reasoning for this is simple – given current and past price rotation, the alignment of the Fibonacci arc suggests that $12,200 will be the ultimate price peak.  Simply put, we just align the Fibonacci arc to price rotation and see where the final outcome for the price is located.


Lastly, this Monthly YM Chart shows us a very clear picture of what to expect over the long term if our predictive analysis and projected price/cycle analysis is correct.  The YM should rally to new highs before the end of this year while potentially stalling near the end of 2018 or within Q1 of 2019.  This stall/peak formation will result in a slight price correction (of likely 3~6%) before prices, again, begin another upside move.  These Fibonacci price circles help us determine projected price targets as well as assist us in understanding current and past price rotation.  The key to all of this is overlaying different analysis and predictive modeling systems that help us understand what to expect in the future.  From this analysis, we can then take at look at these types of “trigger point models” that helps us to understand where and when the price may attempt to reach peaks or troughs.


The current price rotation in the market, with the ES trading near 2720, would indicate that the ES, YM and other Blue Chips may be setting up for a massive upside move.  The YM alone could rally nearly +3000 points ($15k per contract) and the ES could rally +100 points (+$5k per contract) over a fairly short period of time (3~8+ weeks).  This is a tremendous opportunity for traders.  Get ready for an incredible opportunity for profits and let us help you stay ahead of these moves.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trading solutions, better research and provide a top-tier solution for active traders.  If you like our research and find it helps you, then consider joining our other valued members in supporting our work and taking advantage of our solutions for active traders.  Want to know where this market is headed and what to expect throughout the end of this year and beyond – our members already know what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting for the next 5+ months.

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Chris Vermeulen

Gold & Miners to Rally as US Equities Fall On Fear

The US Equities markets rotated over 1.35% lower on Monday, June 25, after a very eventful weekend full of news and global political concerns.  Much of this fear results from unknowns resulting from Europe, Asia, China, Mexico and the US.  Currently, there are so many “contagion factors” at play, we don’t know how all of it will eventually play out in the long run.

Europe is in the midst of a moderate political revolt regarding refugee/immigration issues/costs and political turmoil originating from the European Union leadership.  How they resolve these issues will likely be counter to the populist demands from the people of Europe.

Asia is in the midst of a political and economic cycle rotation.  Malaysia has recently elected Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, the 92-year-old previous prime minister (1981~2003) as a populist revolt against the Najib Razak administration.  In the process, Mahathir has opened new and old corruption and legal issues while attempting to clean up the corruption and nepotism that has run rampant in Malaysia.  Most recently, Mahathir has begun to question the established relationship with Singapore and the high-speed rail system that was proposed to link the two countries.

China is experiencing a host of issues at the moment. Trade concerns, capital market concerns,  corporate debt concerns and an overall economic downturn cycle that started near the beginning of 2018.  What will it take to push China over the edge in terms of a credit/consumer market crash is anyone’s guess?  Our assumption is that continued inward and outward pressures will not abate quickly – so more unknowns exist.

Mexico will have new Presidential elections on July 1, 2018.  What hangs in the balance of this election cycle is just about everything in terms of North American economic cooperation and future success.  It is being reported that a populist “anti-neoliberal” movement is well underway in Mexico and the newly elected leader may begin a broader pushback against President Trump regarding NAFTA, immigration, US corporations operating in Mexico and more.  We won’t know the full outcome of this election till well after July 2018.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, our political leaders in Congress and the House of Representatives seem hell-bent on opposing everything President Trump and many American’s seem to want – clean up the mess in our government and get a handle on the pressing issues before us.  The US has a growing and robust economy.  The last thing anyone wants right now is anything to disrupt this growth.  Yet, it seems the political divide in the US is so strong that it may take some crisis event to push any resolution forward.

What does this mean for investors and traders?  Fear typically appears in one place before it appears anywhere else – the Metals markets (Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium). This Daily Gold Chart shows our predictive cycle analysis pointing to a near-term bottom formation as well as a strong likelihood of immediate upside price action.  These cycles do not represent price levels.  So the cycle peak does not represent where price will go – it simply indicates future cycle trends and direction.

Given this information, it is very likely that Gold will recover to near 1320 within the next couple weeks and possibly push higher on global concerns.  For traders, this means we are sitting near an ultimate bottom in the metals and this could be an excellent buying opportunity.

 

The Gold Miners ETF shows a similar cycle pattern but notice how prices in the Miners ETF have diverged from the Gold chart, above, by not resorting to a new price low as deep as seen above.  This could be interpreted as the Gold market reacting to global concerns in an exaggerated way while the miners ETF is showing a more muted reaction.  Additionally, notice how the ADL cycle analysis is pointing to similar price peaks in the future with near-term bottoms forming.  This is key to understanding what we should be expecting over the next few weeks in Gold.

Our interpretation is that the global fear will manifest as a renewed upside trend in Gold and Gold Miners over the next few weeks with the potential for a 5~8% rally in Gold. The long-term upside is incredible for these trades but that is if you look years into the future.

As these fear components and unknowns continue to evolve, the metals markets should find support and push higher as fear continues to manifest and global markets continue to weaken.

As we have been stating since the beginning of this year, 2018 is setting up to be a trader’s dream.  Bigger volatility.  Bigger swings.  Bigger profits if you are on the right side of these moves.  Our proprietary predictive modeling systems and price analysis tools help us to stay ahead of the markets.

We help our members understand the risks and navigate the future trends by issuing research posts, providing Daily video analysis complete with cycle projections and by delivering clear trading signals that assist all of our members in finding profits each year.  We are showing you one of our proprietary tools right now, our ADL Predictive Cycle tool and what we believe will be the start of a potential upside move in the metals markets.  Get ready for some great trading over the next few months!

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Could A Big Move In The Global Markets Be Setting Up?

Over the past few months, our research team has authored many articles regarding the weakness in China/Asia as well as the recent rotation in the global markets as trade issues, debt issues, the G7 meeting and, more recently, concerns in the US and Europe regarding immigration and political issues create chaos in what was, just 18 months ago, a relatively calm global market.  Yes, there have been some concerns over the past few year with regards to debt issues and other concerns, but the recent shakeup in the status-quo of the global markets seems to be presenting a massive opportunity for investors.

The recent news is that the European leaders are convening an Emergency Meeting to discuss immigration issues and other issues.  This emergency meeting is warning us that other issues are at play here and immigration issues are the result of many failed policies and management by the EU to protect and distribute diversity to EU members.

We believe this emergency meeting could result in a big fat “nothing” from the EU which will expand additional pressures on EU member nations to find solutions on their own regarding immigration, costs, debt and others.  In other words, if our assumption is correct that this meeting will result in the EU leaders saying “well, it’s just the way it is right now – we’ll have to come together to find a way to deal with it” will result in a massive backlash revolt from other EU members.

Additionally, concerns originating from within China and Asia are indicating that massive debt issues, defaults and margin calls.  We warned of this economic contagion cycle back in late March 2018 and early April 2018 with our detailed multi-part research post.  This is just beginning as China has been an economic leader for most of Asia, thus as China deals with a contracting economy and some levels of economic contagion, so will the rest of Asia.

We expected to see an explosion in defaults and reduced foreign capital investment as China attempts to curtail this credit crisis event.  This means many of the emerging markets will see some extended weakness while pricing attempt to find support in the face of unknowns and unpredictable outcomes.

Lastly, in the US, with mid-term elections only about 3 months away, and with Mexico having elections only a few days away (July 1, 2018) a number of key factors for North America are unknown.

Right now, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (ALMO) appears to be a potential winner of these elections, yet from news we see that Mexico is moving away from new-liberalism and towards a more populist leader that could expand tensions with the US President.  Just recently, ALMO urged Mexican citizens to overwhelm the US with illegal immigrants while attempting to move Mexico away from reliance on the US for economic support.

Our opinion of this is that ALMO is walking a very fine line given everything that is going on throughout the globe at the moment and although it may sound good to his people – there may be some very tough situations ahead in making this a reality.

We, the research team at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have recently released a Members Only update to our valued members that shows our predictive modeling systems expectations over the next 2~4 weeks for the US equity markets.  We can’t show these to you because this is a free article to help you see what is happening and that the markets are about to have some big moves.

What will happen? That is only for our subscribers at the Wealth Building Newsletter.  But, what we can show you is what we believe are critical charts for the next few weeks in regards to the global markets and the expectations ahead.

First, Bitcoin recently broke below the $6k level on a breakdown move that could be a sign that no strength really exists near this $6k level.  Please understand that if this $6k level is broken and no real support is found near this level to keep prices above $6k, then $4k or lower is an immediate downside target.  Below $4k, we are talking about $1600 price levels.  This represents a 70% price decrease from recent level if it happens.  So, pay attention to Bitcoin as we believe the meltdown in cryptos could present real issues in the global markets as a derivative market risk factor.

 

Next, this Weekly BRICS chart (emerging market custom index) is clearly showing the weakness in price levels extending much lower over the past few months.  Remember, the BRICS markets are a basket of major emerging markets and this price channel breakdown could be an early warning of a much larger downside price trend setting up.  Weakness below immediate support may result in an additional price decline of -20% or more from current levels.

 

This Weekly China/Asia custom index is showing us that recent price weakness has recently broken a FLAG/PENNANT formation that tells us price weakness could accelerate as debt issues, defaults and margin calls expand.  Somewhat similar to what happened in the US 10 years ago, when this debt bubble continues to collapse, the issue is how do the Chinese contain this collapse event while continuing to support their global efforts and multi-national efforts to become a global economic leader?  Think about it and understand that China has expanded quite extensively over the past 12+ years on the support of the global central banks and US Fed.  The recovery efforts throughout most of the world have created an environment where China could attempt to expand with ease and allow their credit markets to expand without much risk.  Well, not that the world is changing direction and President Trump is attempting to settle trade and other issues – it’s a completely new playing field for the Chinese and for most of the world.  We believe the next few months could show further signs of weakness in the Chinese and Asian economies as well as, potentially, lead to an emerging market collapse before the end of this year.

Lastly, the US Dollar.  Yes, the trusty old GREENBACK.  It is not very difficult to explain or understand why the US Dollar will likely stay above 110~115 over the next few years and likely push a bit higher over the next few months.  All of the preparation by global economies to bring multiple national economies near par with the US economy (think the European Union and the efforts of China to bring the Yuan into the global market as a suitable currency), have resulted in what we have today – an expansive effort to bring foreign economies to near par basis levels against the US Dollar.  The attempt to accomplish this was based on a bias that existed 8+ years ago during the global economic recovery efforts and was based on the ability for “all economies” to achieve great success and develop renewed balance as a result of such efforts.

In other words, the intent was to create multiple base currencies that could be used in global transactions that were near par to the US Dollar – ideally removing the US Dollar as the only real stable currency for such transactions.

Yet, here we are – on the cusp of what could become a global divergence from these “best-laid plans” and on the verge of a greater level of debt contagion, credit defaults, margin calls, global political issues and global immigration issues as a result of these globalist biases.  Europe, China, Asia and dozens of emerging markets and European markets are having to defend themselves from the seemingly out of control liabilities and expenses with these globalist biases.  Just as we are seeing in Mexico right now, this defense is resulting in a populist/nationalist movement that could push the unraveling of these biases even further.

And what happens to the US Dollar through all of this?  Our belief is that the US Dollar will, again, attain and secure itself as the leading global currency with continued strength and security.  We believe a massive capital flight mechanism has already been active where foreign capital is rushing into the US markets in an attempt to avoid devaluation and risk factors.  We believe this will continue for at least the next 6~12 months as global issues continue to be resolved.

 

Please take a moment to review some of our other, older, research posts by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and seeing how we can help you stay ahead of the market and find greater success while trading.  Our members love our research, our predictive price modeling systems, our Daily video forecasts, ETF trade alerts, and more.  Our job is to help you become a more informed, and better trader.  We know you will be satisfied with our efforts and we urge you to become one of our valued subscribers today.

 

Small Caps, Technology and Pharma To Drive A Renewed Market Rally

We’ve been warning our followers not to become frightened by price rotation in the US majors for months.  Our predictive analysis has been showing us the upside in this market is far from over and our most recent analysis of the global markets is showing us that emerging markets and many global markets may be “disconnecting” from the US majors in a dramatic price move.  See our most recent research posts for more on this potential crisis in the making.

Today, we want to alert you to the fact that the move in the US majors may not be over and we could be looking at many weeks or months of upside price bias with some 3~6% price rotations going forward.  As we’ve been trying to warn our followers, there are a bunch of “top sellers” in this market because many believe this market is well overextended and has already reached an Elliot Wave 5 completion.  Our analysis is saying this is simply incorrect and these professionals are failing to see the alternative perspective in the markets.  What if their “completed wave 5” is really just a larger “Wave A” formation or a completed Wave 3 or 5 – which would lead to much higher and longer upside price potential than anyone has imagined.

Still, with a bit of a chuckle, we read the news that some of these professionals were taking larger positions as “short sellers” and read their comments about “this is it – this is the top of the market”.  We posted our analysis and stood by our belief that this market continues to have upside potential and the reasoning behind our belief is relatively clear.  The global markets have been primed by more than $16 trillion in quantitative measures and many foreign and emerging markets have squandered the opportunity to secure solid fundamental economic opportunities for their future.  Very few global economies have the capacity for growth that the US and other mature/major markets have.  It is because of this current economic situation that the US and other mature/major markets will be viewed as the “only suitable economic investment on the planet” for a while and capital will continue to run into these markets as a source of protection and returns.

This ES (E-Mini S&P) chart (240 minute) shows the recent price decline over the past week that had many people very worried about a massive top formation.  You can see this decline was relatively muted compared to the previous upside move.  Over the past few days, the ES retested and broke above the downward resistance channel (in yellow) and is headed back towards the Price Resistance level just below 2800.  This price level is likely to be reached within a few days and breached as the ES, YM, and Transportation related markets should push dramatically higher over the next few weeks.

 

This NQ 240 minute chart shows the same time-span, yet it shows the dramatic upside price breakout in the technology, pharma, and small-cap related indexes.  Why are these markets a large driving force in this upside rally?  Because capital is searching for suitable investments in US equities for protection and gains.  Many of the FANGS and other major market symbols have already seen huge gains over the past 4+ year, yet there are hundreds of other suitable, less pricey symbols available in the realm of Small Caps, Technology and Biotech/Pharma and others.  Simply put, money is hunting for US based investment in suitable companies for simple reasons – protection from currency devaluations, protection from political turmoil and potential returns.  There is only one place to go, the US stock market.

 

Lastly, we want to warn our followers that the NQ may stall a bit in an upside bias over the next few days or weeks while the ES, YM, and Transport related equities see bigger gains over the same time-span.  It is our opinion that as this rally continues, the NQ will likely see a bit slower price acceleration as the DOW, S&P and Transport stocks pick up momentum.  We are not saying the upside move in the NQ is over.   We are suggesting that it may be a bit more muted going forward while other symbols pick up the slack and rally higher.

Our valued members get access to clear and direct predictive analysis using our proprietary Adaptive Learning price modeling systems.  This helps them know what to expect Days, Weeks and even Months in advance.  Our ADL price modeling system is telling us that our analysis future NQ price activity consists of 17 instances of correlative price data that average between 80% to 97% predictive probability of success going forward 20 price bars.  To simplify this for our readers, we have a future price analysis with an 85% to 95% probability of success given 17 instances of similar price data.

 

Our members are uniquely positioned right now to take advantage of this without excessive risk.  We will continue to evaluate new trades with regards to the potential for success while considering risk.  Our objective is to not overweight our positions too heavily into one aspect of the market.

Although, we will add that once confirmation of this move is evident, we may find multiple opportunities for quick profitable trades for our members.  Get ready for some exciting price action and for this next move which most people are not expecting.

Our articles, Technical Trading Mastery book, 3 Hour Trading Video Course, and our Trade Alert Newsletter are designed for both traders and investors to explore the tools and techniques that discretionary and algorithmic traders need to profit in today’s competitive markets. Created with the serious trader and investor in mind – whether beginner or professional – our approach will put you on the path to win. Understanding market structure, trend identification, cycle analysis, volatility, volume, when and when to trade, position management, and how to put it all together so that you have a winning edge.

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Warning All Investors: Global Market Are Shifting Away From US Price Correlation

Well over a month ago we warned our followers of a “capital market shift” that was taking place in the global markets.  Nearly 3 months before that time, we warned that China’s economy was about to enter a sustained economic downtrend cycle that could be dangerous to the global markets.  Today, we offer further evidence that the global markets are, in fact, shifting away from a price correlation to the US Majors and this move could be a warning sign that emerging markets and global markets could lead the world into an extended stagflation cycle.

Think about this for a minute, as we briefly discussed in our last article, what would happen if the US markets continued to rally on a strong economy with strong consumer participation while the US Fed was slow to raise interest rates while supporting a transitional shift of the US economy towards more manufacturing, technology, and expectations?  How would the world’s economies react to such a shift given their current economic cycles and opportunities?  Would they be able to keep up with the US or would they start to trail further and further behind the US?

It is our belief that any continued strengthening of the US economy could, in fact, present real dangers for many of the world’s economies simply because they may fall completely out of sync with the US stock market as their currencies, economies and consumer expectations fail to keep up with the US capabilities.  How all of this will play out over the next few months/years is our concern.  We know it will result in some tremendous trading opportunities for investors, but it could also create a new class of undervalued assets that could present some real long-term opportunity over the next 20+ years.

Let’s start by taking a look at our China/Asia custom index to show how the past 60+ days have more clearly shown this price disconnect happening.  When you look at this chart, pay attention to how closely this custom index (the candles) have moved in relation to the SPY (the blue area chart overlaid onto the candles).  Notice how the moves in the SPY were relatively closely mirrored by the custom index.  This is a direct price correlation to the SPY over an extended period of time.

Now, focus on the last 6~9 bars on this chart and take a really close look at how the SPY has rallied higher while this custom index has stayed flat to lower over the same time frame.  The only answer for this type of price disconnect is that a global capital shift could be underway that is driving capital out of certain markets and away from risk and danger.  In other words, it is our opinion that the China/Asia markets are starting to be perceived as riskier and more dangerous in relation to the US market and other more mature markets.

 

Now, let’s take a look at the BRICS custom index.  YIKES!!  What happened here?  Through most of 2017, a price correlation can be seen where the BRICS index moved somewhat in unison with the SPY price activity – although in some cases a bit delayed.  Yet, after March 2018, something dramatic happened.  When the SPY rotated lower in late March 2018, the BRICS index stayed relatively flat near the highs.  Then in May 2018, a price disconnect became very evident as the SPY began to rally while the BRICS index began to sell-off – very dramatically.  The BRICS index also broke through the BLUE price channel recently which is another sign that price trends/activities have shifted.

 

You should now be starting to see what we have been warning you about for months – the global capital market shift that is taking place.  This is happening because mature nations and economies are capable of achieving great economic growth and stability than many foreign markets and because many foreign markets have squandered the last 10+ years attempting to expand externally and not support their fundamental economic needs.  As we have used this example before, a flower only has two modes of operation – flower mode (expand) or survive (keep the core plant alive).  We believe these foreign markets have been in “flower mode” for the past 10+ years and have failed to support the core elements of their economies.

Now, onto more examples, this time Western Europe.  Again, this custom index is weighted with the SPY, so it should reflect some of the price support of the recent uptrend.  Yet, we see the most recent few weeks of this chart have shown a dramatic downtrend?  This would indicate that the European markets/currencies are disconnecting from the US majors at a much more dramatic pace, recently, that they have been over the past few years.  Yikes!

 

What about India & SE Asia?  Our custom India index has shown relatively FLAT recent price activity compared to the SPY.  Overall, our opinion is that India has yet to completely diverge from the US majors and we urge all investors to be aware that any further price breakdown in this India custom index will warn that the Indian/SE Asian economies are losing their battle to stay correlated to the US markets going forward.  Right now, there is evidence of weakness in the India custom index – yet there are limited signs of a broken correlation to the US markets.  It certainly shows that this price disconnect could be happening and likely is happening – yet we don’t have clear signs that this custom index is breaking to new lows (yet).

 

Lastly, lets take a look at our Russia/Eastern Europe custom index for signs of a price disconnect.  This chart is somewhat similar to the India chart (above).  There are signs of weakness and downside price rotation while the SPY has been rallying, yet there is not massive disconnect evident on the right edge of the chart.  We believe the recent downside price rotation within this custom index are the early warning signs of a price disconnect in the early stages of setting up (just like in the India chart).  We believe these charts clearly show that the US market (and other mature economies) are advancing beyond the functional capabilities of many emerging and foreign markets.  What will come from this, if it continues to play out as we expect, is a huge number of opportunities for traders and investors.

 

The next 3 to 5 years are likely to be very interesting and exciting for traders and investors.  These types of moves don’t happen too often and should these markets continue to rotate as we are expecting, we could see some very big currency and foreign market moves over the next few months and years.  You owe it to yourself to stay ahead of this move and learn how to profits from the extended volatility that will likely result from this price disconnect.

We believe we have nailed this analysis as we have correctly called the weakness in China/Asia as well as the global capital shift that is starting to play out in the global markets.  We already know what will likely move and when we should expect these opportunities to set up.  We are preparing our valued subscribers for this move and protecting them by providing them even more detailed research and analysis than you are seeing here.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how this could be the biggest opportunity of your trading and investing life and how you need a qualified and dedicated team of researchers to help you stay ahead of these moves over the next 2+ years with our long-term discounted subscription plan and Save 39%.  There will come a time when you will be wishing you had access to our proprietary research and member-only trade alerts and investment positions. Become a technical trader today and prosper with us!

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.