Archive for category: $SPY

While we have recently suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our researchers continue to believe the US stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation.  Even though the US stock markets open with a gap higher this week, skilled traders must pay attention to how the Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 are moving throughout this move.

As we continue to advise our clients that the upside pricing cycle in the US stock market is being underestimated, see this research post: we also believe that increased volatility and price rotation will continue to drive larger rotations in price before the final breakout upside move takes place.  We want to continue to warn traders that we still don’t have any confirmed upside breakout with price continuing to stay within this price channel in the Russell 2000.  Eventually, when and if the price does breakout to the upside, we will have a very clear indication that continued higher prices and a larger upside move is happening.  Until then, we need to stay cautious about the types and levels of rotation that continue within the markets.

Recently, volatility has started to increase as can be seen in this VIX chart.  If the Russell 2000 is not able to break this trend channel with this current upside price move, then we fully expect continued price rotation in the US stock markets and another increase in the VIX as this rotation takes place.  The NQ recently rotated downward by nearly 4% while historical volatility continues to narrow.  When volatility diminishes in extended price trends, we’ve learned to expect aggressive price rotation can become more of a concern.  We expect the VIX to spike above 16~18 on moderate volatility as we get closer to the cycle inflection date near June/July 2019.

Volatility Index – VIX chart by TradingView

Overall, our researchers believe the upside price bias in the US stock market will continue for another 30+ days as our research and predictions regarding precious metals and the longer term equities price cycles continue to play out.  Skilled traders need to be aware that this upside price bias may include larger price rotation and volatility as we get closer to the May/June/July 2019 cycle inflection points.  Stay aware of the risks as 4~6%+ price rotations should be expected over the next 30+ days throughout this upside price bias.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond?  Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future.  Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and unique opportunities.

Chris Vermeulen

Think of this research post as an early warning that June and July 2019 are likely to be a very critical price inflection point based on our proprietary price cycle analysis tools.  Back in October 2018, we predicted the downside price rotation almost perfectly going forward 4 to 5 months.  We predicted nearly every move that occurred in the US stock market all the way to and through the ultimate low that occurred on December 24, 2018.  You can read that post here.

Now, our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems are predicting a June/July 2019 cycle inflection date that will likely coincide with, possibly, new market highs as well as increased bullish price activity throughout the global stock markets until we get nearer to this date.  This June/July 2019 date becomes even more critical as we begin to understand our other predictive modeling systems are suggesting that precious metals will begin an upside price advance near late April or early May 2019.  When we combine this analysis and start to consider the broader conclusion, it leads us to believe the global stock markets could be poised for a bit of rotation after May or June of 2019 – possibly setting up a bigger price sell-off throughout the end of 2019.  Only time will tell.

This Monthly DOW Industrial chart highlights our cycle inflection points/dates in vertical lines.  The next, pending, cycle inflection point is June/July 2019 on this chart.  We believe continued upside price bias will prevail over the next few months resulting in lower Gold and Silver prices.  As we near these June/July dates though, we could see an increase in volatility as well as a decrease in US Dollar valuation.  This would align with a “risk on” transition away from equities and into protection assets like Gold and Silver.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is suggesting that an upside price bias will continue over the next 2~3 months headed into this June/July cycle trigger.  The ADL is also suggesting that the US stock market may reach near all-time highs just before the cycle inflection date hits.  We do believe that some moderate price rotation is likely over the next 60 to 90+ days as price rotation is a key element of price advance or decline.  We are suggesting that, for right now, traders should continue to expect moderate upside price bias, with some expectation of price zig-zagging its way up, over the next 2~4 months.

Should our cycle inflection date prompt a market reversal, we will likely know more about the risk factors that could prompt this move at least 20~30 days before the event begins to unfold.  We are posting this research post to alert you to a cycle trigger/inflection point that is 3~4 months away that could become a major event in our future.  As we’ve suggested in this article, we don’t believe this inflection point will change the way we trade next week or the week after that, but we do expect the closer we get to this critical inflection point – the more important it will become for skilled traders.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and our Trading Courses are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been all over the precious metals markets for the past 16+ months.  We’ve been so deep into research and study with regards to price action and technical/fundamental data, that we’ve been able to call market moves many months in advance.

Recently, over the past few months, we’ve been warning that an April 21~24 date is likely to set up an ultimate price bottom in the precious metals market. It could prompt a broader upside price swing that should eventually lead to a much bigger upside breakout move.  On March 8, 2019, we posted this article that clearly outlined our thinking at that time saying a bounce to $1315-1320 before heading down to $1255.

Take a minute to read that article and consider this current downside price action as a gift the precious metals markets are allowing for all of us.  This is the move that we’ve been warning about for months – the retracement from the $1315~1320 level that should bottom out near $1240~1265 and will ultimately become the “momentum base” for the future upside move.  Precious metals are starting a move that we predicted many months ago.  Our researchers believe Gold will trade below $1275 for a brief period of time (likely just a few days or weeks) before setting up a broad-based momentum bottom.  Our objective is to “leg into” this setup with a series of long trades for the ultimate upside breakout.

Our research suggests that near the end of April 2019 or in early May 2019, Gold prices will likely begin a strong upside price move that will quickly target the $1500+ price level.  We believe this current price swing will set up as the last real opportunity for skilled traders to accumulate long positions in precious metals while we wait for the April/May breakout move.  Any opportunity to buy near the lower range of our Buy Zones would be an excellent entry position given our future prediction that a massive upside breakout move is just 20~30 days away from starting.

This Daily Gold chart shows just how deep the Buy Zone is for Gold.  Any price activity below $1275 would be a solid entry for skilled traders.  Any further opportunity to add to that position below $1265 is even better.  Ultimately, we believe the $1240 to $1250 level will hold as support for the momentum bottom.

This Weekly Gold chart highlights our Buy Zone in broader price perspective.  As you can see, the $1250 level corresponds to a price peak back in October/November 2018.  We believe this level will act as long-term support and that price will bottom between $1240 and $1265 before the upside price swing begins.

This last Weekly Silver chart highlights the fairly narrow Buy Zone in silver that will allow traders to accumulate long position near of just above $16.50.  We believe this $16.50 level will become key support throughout this April 2019 lower price rotation.  Remember, near the end of April or in early May, we strongly believe a new upside price move will take place that will blow through recent highs and prompt a 12 to 25% upside price move.  Our target for Gold is above $1500 (likely $1575 to $1675).  Our upside target for Silver is $17.50 to $19.50 with this first upside leg.  Our opinion is that this initial upside leg could be the start of a much larger and much more profitable price advance – lasting many months.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success with our complete Wealth Building Traders Newsletter with Long-Term investing signals, Position trades, Swing trades, and our pre-market gap fill and spike day trades.

Chris Vermeulen

Our research team believes the upside pricing potential of the US market could be under-estimated by global traders and investors.  We’ve been pouring over the charts and data trying to substantiate our hypothesis with our proprietary price modeling systems and technical analysis systems for the past few days.  Our results suggest the US stock market, in comparison to the global markets, could still be under-priced at current levels based on investor sentiment and this could be just the beginning of a super cycle rally we have seen happen one before.

Last year during the price rotation in February 2018, we hypothesized the current rotation was not the end of a 5-Wave Elliot Wave formation.  We believe the January 2018 highs are potentially the end of Wave 3 which is part of a much larger Wave A upside price swing.  Our research suggested that the retracements in 2010 and 2011 were not sufficient to qualify as any type of traditional Elliot Wave structure, thus the retracement in 2015 qualified as a Wave B formation.  This presented an upside Wave A size of +366%, or +$89.66, on the QQQ chart.  The Wave C move, from the lows of 2015 to the highs of 2018, presented an upside Wave C size of +121%, or +$102.77.  Given these Wave A and C sizes, we believe the upside potential of a final Wave E (the last wave higher) in the US stock market could be at least 100% to 161% the size of the last Wave C formation.

This presents a very interesting possibility that our most recent article about the Treasury Yield Inversion and the concerns about a pending recession may be setting the wrong tone for traders.  Yes, the 2020 Presidential election cycles typically result in some price rotation and sideways trading for US stocks.  This may hold true over the next 16+ months before the elections and there may not be much we can do about it other than trade these price rotations.  After the elections, though, we believe the upside price potential for the US stock market could be incredibly under-estimated.  How under-estimated, you ask?  The upside potential could be as large as +20% to 25% or more.

The red box on this Weekly NQ (NASDAQ) chart highlights the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave target levels when we presume a 100% upside price leg.  Please remember the upside leg could be as large as 161%, 200% or more on this final Wave E (or Wave 5).  The projected upside target levels on the NQ are near 9250 (or higher).

The same types of price projection points (or targets) using the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theories predict a similar upside target level on this Weekly YM (DOW JONES) chart.  Current price rotation suggests an upside target near $31,000 for the YM (or higher) before this upside move completes.

Remember, the US Presidential election cycles typically mute price rotation a bit and present a bit of sideways trading.  We’ve highlighted our expectations on the following Custom Market Cap Chart we follow that helps us determine where price levels are in relation to historical norms.  You can see from this chart that we are currently sitting right at the historical middle pricing level going back almost 8 years.  We would expect a moderate upside pricing bias to continue as we head into the US election cycle with mild price rotation.  After the election cycle is complete, which is highlighted on this chart, we assume market price capitalization would be below historically normal levels and poised for an upside move (assuming a new US President is not elected with plans/policies to disrupt current GDP and economic growth factors).

Typically, Wave E (or Wave 5) formations can be relatively short in structure, or at least as long as Wave A or Wave C.  It is most common for Wave E formations to at least be as long as Wave C and in many cases, Wave E can extend well beyond Wave C length.

Custom Index – Custom Index chart by TradingView

We believe the next 16+ months will test the abilities and skills of truly skilled traders.  We believe price rotation and sector rotation will be key to finding and executing proper trades.  All the while, remember that a biased upside price trend will likely continue.  As we get into the final 4~5 month’s price to the US elections, be prepared to identify and set up some exceptional trading opportunities.  If our research is correct, this last move higher will begin somewhere near January 2021 and the upside move could last until our cycle peak date of 2027 which may sound crazy, but I will share you with a super cycle higher that could happen, and we have seen this before. Stay tuned for the Part II of this Special Report

Find out how our research and trading team can assist you in finding and executing better trades throughout all of these moves.  We are about to launch our newest technology solution for our members at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and we believe we provide some of the best research, daily video analysis and trading triggers you can find anywhere on the planet.  We like to keep things simple and manageable for our members.  We issue 2~3 trades a week (max) and we target 5~25% swings in ETF and stocks.  We also provide incredible insight into the markets which allows you, the skilled trader, to make your own trading decisions while being better informed and understanding current market dynamics.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com