PART II – Is The Debt Crisis About To Be Reborn In 2020?

There are some key elements of political and economic Super-Cycles that all traders must stay aware of listed below. But if you have not yet read PART I do so now. _  Very often, 12+ months before a major US political election cycle, the US stock market typically enters a Bearish trend phase that lasts until 8+ month before the actual election date. _   The Transportation Index has not recovered to levels from the September 2018 peak.  This lower price rotation in the Transportation Index suggests the global economy is not expecting growth in the near future. _   Other than Precious Metals, the Commodities sector has rebounded off of recent lows but has yet to see any real price advancement – suggesting that demand for raw commodities is rather weak. _   The Real Estate sector in the US is starting to falter near a current high price level.  We are seeing price decreases hit the markets as sellers are desperate to attract buyers.  This could be a warning that a price revaluation event is about to unfold in the US. _   Super-Cycles suggest a moderately sized price rotation between now and early 2020 (likely greater than 20% in size).  This rotation, should it happen, will become a price revaluation event that could attempt to “shake loose” some of the sector pricing and forward expectations we’ve mentioned (above). Our bigger concern is the localized state and federal pension and retirement issues that continue to respond with higher levels of financial commitments and greater levels of annual budgets as related to ongoing capacity and operational activities in the US. If an unwinding event was to unfold in or near 2020, it is our belief that a pricing revaluation event related to any of the core economic factors above (particularly with Real Estate, Economic Cycles, the US Presidential Elections, and a soft/weakening US economy) could result in a much larger price revaluation event taking place.  This would create extended pressures on local State and Federal expenses and highlight debt issues that can often be hidden behind “creative accounting” tricks. State and Local Government Debt Securities and Loan Liability levels have stayed elevated, yet somewhat flat over the past 10+ years.  It is very likely that these debt levels have been contained because of the US easy money policies of the past 10+ years.  When the US Dollar is cheap and easy to repay, these debt levels don’t look so difficult.
Pension and retirement systems/fund are a completely different story for State and Local government agencies.  Asset flows have dramatically increased in volatility after 2000.  Additionally, the depth and magnitude of asset outflows have become quite dangerous while price revaluation events were unfolding (2000 to 2004 and 2008 to 2015).  Outflows in state and federal pension and retirement funds create large forward operational pressures and shortfalls in expected funding levels.  These decreases in funding should be made whole by the State or City – but they are rarely ever repaid in full. As these “wholes” in the pension and retirement systems continue to fester (resulting in decreased funds for pensioners and decrease fund to be deployed as investment assets), the problems begin to compound over time.  More and more retirees and pensioners start drawing benefits while the system continues to take in less and less – never actually catching up in total value.
One big revaluation event, or possibly two, from now and we believe the entire system will create a multiple Trillion Dollar debt crisis within the US and possibly throughout the modern world.  We believe the under-estimated state and federal pension/retirement funding issue is the next shoe to drop and that it will take a price revaluation event to expose the risks that are evident within this failed “Ponzi” scheme.  Read the recent news about Chicago and Illinois to learn just how dangerous these entitlement contraptions really are. Let’s assume that a revaluation event does take place within the next 5 to 10+ years – this would be something like a Real Estate price correction or some type of stock market, asset market price correction related to local or global economic issues.  Could these massive asset funds handle an extended DRAWDOWN from their funds while Cities, States, and Federal agencies attempt to deal with declining revenues?  How much time would it take for these pension and retirement funds to fall into crisis or insolvency? By our estimates, the current asset levels in the US retirement/pension system have just started to breach the lower asset level channel originating from 1970 to 1999 attribution levels.  It has taken 20+ years of  US Fed and global Central Bank market manipulation, as well as President Trump’s incredible US economic and stock market rally, to recover to these levels.
Overall, skilled technical traders must be aware of the risks that are ever-present for another crisis event or what we are calling a “price revaluation event” that could create havoc on anyone’s retirement accounts, trading portfolios and/or simple family life/future.  We’re trying to help to highlight what we believe will be the future 16 to 24 months of pricing activity within the US Stock market based on our research tools and our experience/knowledge. I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar! I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is The Debt Crisis About To Be Reborn In 2020?

We have been focused on the upside price move in Gold and Precious Metals, we’ve been engaged in multiple private conversations with members and friends about the potential for a renewed debt crisis between now and the end of 2020. This research post should help to put some perspective into what we believe the next 16+ months of trading and what the US economy should look like for our followers. First, we want to talk about one of our most favorite topics of the past 24+ months – the “capital shift” phenomenon.  We first identified this facet of global economic dynamics back in 2015 or so. As the global economy shifts focus on risks and opportunities, capital shifts with these expectations and moves away from risks and into investments that are seen as opportunistic and safer.  This dynamic is still very much at play within the global markets. Second, we want to discuss global Central Banks and their attempts to spark growth after the 2008-09 credit crisis event.  Even though Global Central banks have continued to spark some type of fundamental economic growth over the past 9+ years, these QE activities have also produced a very high level of debt arising from extended government spending, consumer spending and lack of real savings initiatives.  While governments and central banks were chasing the “gold ring” of inflation, they lost focus on the fundamental elements of the economy which are debt levels, price valuation levels and future operational capabilities with regards to debt vs. income. Recently, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) issues a scathing annual report suggesting the global Central Banks have been negligent in properly managing debt levels, QE functions, and fundamental economic policies in an attempt to continually chase growth and inflation. BIS Review by Bloomberg. Third, Gold and precious metals have started to rally from levels near historical low points.  This increased upside price activity is a very clear sign that FEAR and GREED have re-entered the global markets and that global investors/traders are starting to react to unknown and unseen potential risk factors.  Are they reacting to future trade issues, future debt issues, future growth issues??  What is it? The reality is, we never really know until the event is complete as the hind site is 20/20. What really matters is understanding that this type of money flow is happening and that we have a way to track and forecast these levels of fear and greed. The gold chart below shows our expected price of gold forecast from October of 2018. As you can see, we identified the bottom and rally, then the more recent bottom in April/May, and today we are experiencing the extended rally (fear/greed) driven rally. Not only can we accurately forecast gold long term moves but we can also pinpoint short term bottoms and tops using our intraday cycle and fear/greed tools as shown here.
Forth, the breakout economy in the world, the US, is not something that happened by chance.  After the 2008-09 global economic crisis, the US entered a period of extended QE throughout President Obama’s term.  The US QE functions didn’t really end until just before the 2016 Presidential Elections.  Thus, from roughly 2009 till 2015, the US was engaging in some form of QE measures which supported the global Central Banks by allowing for cheap US Dollars.  The continued US QE efforts allowed foreign nations, governments, and enterprises to take advantage of a very unique extended cheap US Dollar event that has now GONE AWAY. It is our belief that this fundamental change in the US Federal Reserve, wanting to attempt to normalize rates, while President Trump’s attempt to restructure and settle more suitable trade deals with China, Europe, Mexico, Canada, and others has disrupted the apple cart – so to say. The easy access to the US Dollar is gone.  Easy trade and special deals for China and others are gone.  The US economy is strengthening because of fundamental economic strength – size, capabilities, pricing valuations and the attraction of foreign capital investments. We talked about this in great detail including how we expected the SP500 to reach 3000 and beyond months ago.
All of these points raise some very interesting questions – primarily “what is the unwinding event going to look like?” Global Central banks will do everything within their power to push off any signs of crisis events and to foster some level of economic growth for as long as possible.  We all know this to be true. The spark all these Central Banks have been waiting for is economic growth.  What happens if that growth initiates at the same time that Inflation initiates at a 2x or 3x rate?  Economic growth would support increased demand for commodities and other items.  This increased demand will likely prompt moderate inflation – making these items even more expensive to purchase much beyond the pricing we see now. A combination of moderate growth and increased inflation in the US could prompt the US to raise rates even further in an effort to contain inflation.  A spike in rates, at this point, could completely destroy support for current asset levels, Real Estate, Debt and other operational components of our already stressed local state and federal governments.  Yikes. We believe we know what the unwinding event will eventually become once the trigger event initiates the move.  We believe it will become a price “revaluation” event where assets and commodities prices attempt to identify an “equilibrium” based on historic and current supply/demand expectations.  The one caveat to this whole presumption is DEBT – what about all the DEBT? In Part II of this multi-part research post, we’ll share our current understanding of the market cycle and what the next 16 to 24 months will likely bring for investors/traders. I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar! I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Gold Forecast: Gold Is Going Parabolic And Which Way Up Or Down?

As a technical analyst since 1997 for Technical Traders Ltd., I believe gold is entering the final leg of an advanced upside price wave formation that will ultimately target $1650 to $1750 in the coming months BUT…

READ FULL ARTICLE HERE

The Long and Short Plays For Gold Traders

The last few weeks for gold trader has been really exciting. Let face it, metals are starting to outperform us Equities late in a US stock bull market and we all know what that means. If you don’t know what I mean check out these charts! Recently I posted an exclusive gold analysis article on Gold-Eagle.com talking about the next big moves and timing for the price of gold. Things are about to get much more exciting and life changing for those involved on the right side of the move. In fact, in the next week, I will be sharing the absolute best way to take advantage of the gold move and it is most likely the exact opposite of what you are doing/plan to do. Recently Eric Sprott (Canadian billionaire, precious metals specialist) talked about my analysis and he touched on this gold trading strategy as well. Ok, let’s jump into some really exciting charts showing where gold should move next based on the dollar price and my gold cycles.

USD Dollar Controls The Price Of Gold

The daily chart of the US Dollar index below shows where I think it should move in the next week. If the dollar rises it will keep the price of gold contained and possibly force it lower, which is what my gold cycle analysis system is confirming as well. The big question is if the dollar just had this bounce and rolls over, or if the dollar continues to rise after this upside target is reached. This will control what the price of gold does in the near future.

My Price of Gold Cycle Prediction System

My custom gold cycle analysis which takes the most active cycles in the market and blends them into one line paints a clear picture of where the price of gold should move in the next few days. While the red forecast shows a strong sell-off, keep in mind this is just the trend bias, price does not move to the levels of the cycles, but rather if the cycle is moving lower expect the price to trade sideways or lower as well during that time frame. It’s a trend guide only, not to be used for price targets. This awesome indicator is just one of the trading tools I developed, which I use for oil, the SP500 and many other assets is what I use and share with subscribers of my trade alert newsletter.

Gold Trade Signals Made Simple

So how do we trade cycles and time the price of gold? There are infinite ways, but I have honed in two key strategies/tools I created to make things visual and simple to follow. Below is what I currently call V9 (Velocity-9 from the show Flash I watch with my son), or maybe because of its Version 9 (It’s 9 years in the making)? Does not really matter, the point is it’s designed to identify trading signals for gold, silver, miners, indexes, etc… and it does this remarkably well. The chart I think is self-explanatory but in short, it tells us the market trend, when to be long, short, or in cash. It further goes on to provide high probability trade trigger and price targets for both quick momentum trades and swing trades. To take things one step further, by knowing the trend and when it’s starting to change the direction you can simply buy and hold high beta stocks or leveraged ETF’s with the market trend as an active trader/investor. This system focuses to pull 1.2% – 2.5% out of any market it’s trading, and if you use a 2x or 3x ETF you can generate 5% – 7.5% return quickly and with little downside risk. Food for thought, only fifteen 5% winners = 100+% return! If you want to see this tool used on the SP500 take a look at these charts here.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I’m bullish on gold as mentioned in my recent Gold-Eagle.com article but in the near term, we could be in for a little choppy price action. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Palladium Sets Up Another Double Top Pattern

Is this Double-Top setup in Palladium another warning of a potential downside price move?  Back in April 2018, we issued a Double-Top pattern warning in Palladium which preceded a downside price move of nearly 28%.  We believe this new Double-Top pattern may prompt a downside price move of nearly 20% – targeting the $1240 level. April 18, 2018: PALLADIUM RALLY DRIVING OTHER METALS TO MOVE? This Weekly Palladium chart highlights the YELLOW Double-Top pattern formation that we believe may prompt a new downside price move.  Our expectations are that any new price weakness in Palladium will push prices down to the BLUE Fibonacci projected target level near $1240.  Additionally, should price break through the $1240 level, the next target levels are $1000 and $1060.
Palladium is a component that is related to industrial output and economic output for many industries; Automotive, Technology, Medical Devices and Equipment, and many others.  A decrease in demand for Palladium would indicate a decreased demand for a broad swath of global industry leaders. This would likely result in a decreasing or weakening global economic outlook and, potentially, be an early warning sign that the global stock markets are about to enter a period of extended price weakness. Pay very close attention to the $1450 to $1475 level in Palladium.  These levels are the most recent support levels from previous triggers.  Price weakness below these levels would be a strong indication that Palladium may continue to move lower targeting the $1240 level or lower. Look at my trend analysis chart for Palladium. Yes, it is in an uptrend but as of the last trading session it is now trading at an extreme overbought level which typically means sellers should step into the market at any time.
See my current trend and trade signals for the SP500 index here. Now is the time to plan and prepare for these incredible price swings in the global markets.  The next 18-24 months are certain to present technical traders with countless opportunities for success with these bigger price moves. Our recent calls in the markets have resulted in over 42% in total gains over the past 60 days.  Isn’t it time you learned how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and time better trades?

Become a Technical Trader and Profit with Us

Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

Crude Oil Pummeled, Where Is It Going Next?

On Tuesday, July 2, 2019, the price of Crude Oil fell over -4.5% on continued expectations of global economic weakness and supply gluts.  We found this interview rather interesting because it attempts to suggest a narrative that ignores Iranian issues while pushing the supply side fundamental for the current price decline (Source: CNBC). Back on May 21, 2019, we shared a post that is still very relevant today.  The same price pattern is still in place and the same type of price action is working through the completion of an extended Pennant/Flag formation. We suggest all our follower read this May 21 post to catch up to current market levels. May 21, 2019, Technical Analysis Post: GLOBAL ECONOMIC TENSIONS TRANSLATE INTO OIL VOLATILITY Our researchers believe the technical reason why Crude Oil will continue lower is that price rotation has continued to support a downside price trend (Bearish) and that recent price resistance near the upper price channel has been rejected.  This is a near perfect example of how the Fibonacci price theory works in real markets.  The price must always attempt to establish “new price highs” or “new price lows” AT ALL TIMES. After the deep price bottom in December 2018 near $42.50, oil price began an upside price move reaching just above our $66 target in late April 2019.  Since then, another downside price move, which we called in our May 21 article, has driven oil prices to the $50.60 level. The current upside price move has recently retested the $60 resistance level and has pulled back to where we are today around $56 per barrel. The price rejection and subsequent collapse in price on July 2 represents a clear rotation from the $60 price level.  This failure to achieve a “higher high” price level ($60 is lower than the previous peak near $66) is a very clear indication that price MUST move lower in an attempt to establish a new “lower low” – near or below $50.60.  This is how the Fibonacci price theory works. We believe the last level of support for Oil is currently near $54.50. If this level is breached, we should see a very clear and quick price move lower targeting the $50.60 to $52.50 level where historical support resides.  If that level fails, then a move to deeper historical support, near $42 if very likely.
Everything hinges on what Oil will do near the $54.50 level as the price continues to push lower from the recent peak near $60.  Technical traders should be prepared for a bit of volatility over the next few days, but we believe the $54.50 level will be breached and that oil prices will continue to fall back towards the previous low price level near $50.60.  If price fails to find support there, it really has only one target left to reach – that is the $42 level.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In a previous article, we’ve shown you when the bottom was in for oil and stocks using our simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points for SP500 and Crude Oil  – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move. Now a month later we are providing more insight about oils potential drop to $42 if support is broken. If the price drops below $52 would also create selling pressure as the price will have fallen below the 200-period historical moving average level.  This technical condition would suggest price weakness to the masses and could result in additional selling pressure from traders exiting the oil market and potentially even short selling pressure. Technical traders should have all eyes focused on the $54.50 price level right now.  That is the key price level for any future move in Crude Oil as it is oversold currently and near support. Either way, up or down, Crude Oil continues to be an incredible opportunity for skilled technical traders. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in crude oil, but real estate, metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are even going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

Transportation Index Warns Of Trouble Ahead?

Any weakness in the Transportation Index near current levels would indicate investors and traders believe the global economy may continue to contract going forward and may be an ominous sign for the global stock markets. The Transportation Index is a measure of the current expectations related to shipping, trucking, trains and all measure of forward expectations for goods, products and raw materials to be moved across nations, seas, states, and locations.  When the economy is gaining strength, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving higher.  When the economy is weakening, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving lower. Since the peak in September 2018, the Transportation Index has moved much lower to establish a base near $8625 in December 2018.  After that base formed, a series of price rotations pushed the Transportation Index up to $11,148, where it peaked, then began to trail a bit lower since May 2019. Our concern is that the Support/Resistance level, highlighted by the GREEN rectangle on this Weekly chart, represents a critical historical price that must be breached before any renewed strength in the global markets will be seen. After the G20 meeting, last weekend, and the rally in the US stock market on Monday, we were a bit surprised that the Transportation Index failed to move dramatically higher following the global markets.  This leads us to believe investors were taking advantage of a pricing issue related to the G20 and US/China trade war news that was not rooted in strength seen in the global economy.  In other words, buy the rumor, sell the news.  It would appear the rumor hit the markets Sunday in Tokyo and the news hit the US markets on Monday. We talked about the G20 meeting results and how G20 will move gold and the US stock indexes.
Skilled technical traders already know we must be cautious near these current all-time highs.  Volatility can increase dramatically on news or other earnings data which may drive prices higher or lower over the next few weeks.  As we start July (Q3) 2019, we should be preparing for earnings data to be released over the next 30+ days as well as continued news related to global trade issues.  Additionally, the items which will be sold for Christmas and the holidays are already being shipped across the globe and being distributed to warehouses over the next few months prior to the start of the holiday season. Historically, July through September are somewhat weak for the Transportation Index.  Overall, the Transportation Index loses approximately 500 to 600 points over this 90-day span with a range (potentially) of over $3000 points in volatility.  Bullish trending strength returns in October and November where the Transportation Index typically rallies approximately $5000 pts with a volatility range of about $7000 points.  These historical trends suggest we could see quite a bit of volatility over the next 90 days with a decent chance at seeing a downward price move targeting recent December 2018 lows.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In previous articles, we’ve suggested a simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points – the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move.  If this move holds true for the Transportation Index, then a move to levels near $8250 is about to unfold based on the move from Sept 2019 to Dec 2019.  It would make sense that this move would likely happen between now and September 2019 – followed by a solid rally into the end of 2019 as our historical data suggests. Now is the time to stay on top of these moves and to target the opportunity these bigger price rotations provide for technical traders.  Simply put, we have just described a downside price move of about $2000 points in the Transportation Index followed by an upside price move of over $4000 to $5000 points.  You don’t want to miss this one, folks. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

G20 News Drive Big Moves In The Markets

This past weekend was full of exciting news and information.  Combine this with the strong US economic activity, the potential for some type of reprieve in the US/China trade issues and the historic meeting in North Korea between President Trump and Kim Jun Un, and the markets were set up for a big move at the open of trading in Tokyo. The other big news originated from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).  This Swiss-based central banking committee for “central banks” released an annual report on the progress of global central banks and the global economy last weekend.  They urged central banks not to chase easy money policies any longer and to focus on core policy changes, practical economic practices, and real leadership to help drive future growth.  They urged nations that easy money policies may help to show some types of immediate economic improvements – but that the risks of continuing such policies and lack of true economic reforms do nothing but pack risk into the back end of these efforts. Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other assets like real estate and precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely. Our opinion is the US stock market is poised for a big move based on this news and continued economic activity.  If the US is able to settle trade issues in a manner that supports a strong future economic output and restore some balance to foreign trade, as well as continue to produce strong economic activity and output levels throughout the last 6+ months of this year, we could see a very strong price rally setting up into the end of 2019.  This could prompt a big move to the upside IF all things line up properly as we have suggested. If things take an ugly turn over the next 2 to 4+ months, then we believe current support levels will likely act as a floor in the US stock market as the global economies struggle to find their “launch button” to jump-start their economies.  As the news stated, the economic factors of the globe are in a transitional state at the moment.  The US is the leading global economic engine and many other foreign economies must transition away from easy money policies and make hard choices to drive future growth.  Volatility will be KING over the next few months/years and the US Dollar will likely continue to strengthen as this transition plays out. This ES chart highlights the resistance levels just below $3000 that we are watching as a critical ceiling in the ES.  As we have suggested, the news last weekend is driving upward price activity into this resistance area.  Traders should be cautiously bullish right now and should be keenly aware of risks that could prompt a breakdown in price.  Current support is near $2700.
Technology could be a huge winner if the US/China restore proper trade relations and establish a stronger future economic tie going forward.  In fact, the relief of a US/China trade deal could easily spill over into the DOW and Mid-Cap stocks as general trade and infrastructure deals will likely ramp-up quickly.  Our researchers believe the technology sector is the “canary in the coal mine” for the future of price related to trade and global economic activities.  We believe the technology sector is unfairly weighted in either direction based on the uncertainty of the global economy right now. Resistance near $8000 is key.  Support near $6800 is also very important.  This leaves a $1400 range for price rotation within critical levels.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting even bigger price volatility ranges totaling over $3000 between target levels.  This suggests that volatility is still increasing and that traders should understand the risks of this volatility.  Currently, we are cautiously bullish as the NQ attempt to breach into new all-time high territory again.
Gold paused in the rally early in trading today, breaking back below $1400.  We have confidence in out research that Gold will continue to react to the Fear & Greed that is rampant throughout the globe at the moment and begin another upside move over the next 10+ days.  This move below $1400 is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify new Long entry positions for the future upside move. Remember, the transition that is required over the next 2+ years will require many difficult decisions and a means of transitioning away from easy money policies towards more practical economic policies.  This will not be an easy task for many.  The fear/greed cycle will show up in precious metals early and quickly.  The next upside move should be towards levels above $1550 to $1650.
As we’ve been saying for many months, this is the time to be a skilled trader.  These volatility spikes, huge moves in the markets and incredible trade setups are fantastic opportunities for traders.  Join us in picking apart these moves, setups, and opportunities.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

My index trend and trading strategy signal

Last week was a great week for trading as we locked in profits on a trade and raised our stops to protect the rest of our open positions. take a look at how my trading system identifies trends, trades, and targets in the chart below.
If you want to become profitable technical traders join my educational trading newsletter and trade alerts complete with entry, targets and stop pricing. Today we closed two winning trades at the open, and entered a NEW trade this morning markets are getting very tradable again. So ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Soon I will be adding this trading system chart in the member’s area where it updates through the day for you to follow alone and trade with me. I should mention that the newsletter pricing will be going up soon. If you subscribe before the price increase you are grandfathered in at the old/lower rate. EDIT: September, 26, 2019. New Terms and Conditions are in effect. Grandfathered rates may no longer apply. Please read the Terms and Conditions available on the sign-up page of www.thetechnicaltraders.com.
GET WINNING TRADES AND A FREE BAR OF GOLD – CLICK HERE
Chris Vermeulen

Part II – Are Real Estate ETF’s The Next Big Trade?

In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.  Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity. SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique “washout low” price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.  If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy. Our opinion is that the recent “washout low” price bottom in SRS is very likely to be a unique “scouting party” low/bottom that may set up a very big move to the upside over the next 4 to 12+ months.  If our research is correct, the continued forward navigation for the US Fed, global central banks and the average consumers buying and selling homes is about to become very volatile. If SRS moves above the $25.50 level, our first upside Fibonacci price target and clears the $24.25 previous peak set in April 2019, it would be a very clear indication that a risk trade in Real Estate is back in play.  Ideally, price holding above the $21.65 level would provide a very clear level of support negating any future price weakness below $21.50.
This weekly SRS chart highlights what we believe to be the optimal BUY ZONE and the upside price targets near $28 to $29.  Since the bottom in 2009-10, after the credit market crisis, we have not seen any substantial risk in the Real Estate market for over 8+ years.  Now, though, it is our opinion that this risk trade is very real and that technical trader should be aware of this potential move and what it means to protect assets and wealth. If our research proves to be accurate and any future move by the US Fed will prompt a “rush to the exits” by home sellers, then there is really only one course of action left for us to consider.  Either the Fed will reduce rates, buying some at-risk sellers a bit of time before a rush to sell overwhelms the markets and prices begin a fast decline in an attempt to secure quick buyers; or the Fed will leave rates at current levels where at-risk sellers will continue to attempt to offload their homes to any willing buyers before declining prices and panicked sellers start the “race to the bottom” in terms of pricing.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with our suggested SRS trade setup. We believe this bottom in SRS will result in a few more weeks of trading near price support (above $20 and below $22.50) where traders will be able to acquire their positions.  The bigger move will happen as risk becomes more evident – very similar to what has recently happened in Gold. Once that risk is visible to traders/investors, the upside potentials ($28+ to $42+) won’t seem so illogical any longer. I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly. I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com