On Friday morning I created these charts on the price of crude oil, the energy sector stocks (XLU), and also the Canadian Dollar, which I think paint a clear picture of what to expect for the price of crude this coming week.
I always like to look at the leading indicators of the asset which I am interested in trading. For those trading the price of crude oil you should be watching what the energy stocks are doing or the sector as a whole. I use XLE ETF for this. I also will show you the Canadian dollar and what it is going later in this post.
Energy stocks are a way for traders to leverage the move in oil so the smart/big money tends to move into these stocks before the underlying commodity (oil) will start to change direction.
PRICE OF CRUDE OIL – DAILY CHART
Oil has been trading sideways for a couple of weeks. The range may not look big but just note that it’s a roughly 25% range from the bottom to the top of the blue box. The key take-aways here is simple. Oil is still trading at the bottom of the chart and trading sideways. What we will be looking for is a breakout of this zone in either direction which should induce a strong rally or selloff to the expected price levels of $34, or $14. These moves are likely to happen quickly over a 2-3 day period to expect an explosive move.
PRICE OF ENERGY SECTOR STOCKS ETF (XLE) – DAILY CHART
Energy stock generally leads to the price of oil by a few days. The important points on this chart are that price has rallied off the lows, and is forming a bull flag pattern which means higher prices are expected.
Much like crude, a break in either direction in XLE can be traded, but the pattern which has formed puts the odds in favor of an upside breakout and rally of roughly 12%.
The Canadian dollar is very tied to the energy sector, both the price of oil and energy stock because we are a resource-rich country, with oil being once of our top resources.
As you can see in the chart below the Canadian dollar it too has formed a bull flag pattern and looked primed and ready for another rally higher. The currency market, in general, is massive and when a large asset class is showing signs of reversing you better pay attention.
When I see a currency forming strong pattern to give us an expected price breakout direction, I like to look at what that is telling me. What companies or commodities will this move affect? In this case, money is moving into the Canadian dollar expecting oil to bottom and rally which should help increase the value even more.
I TALK LIVE ON TV ABOUT THESE TRADE SETUPS
If you want more details on this trade setup just watch this clip from TraderTV where I talked with Brendan Wickens in detail. Click Here To Watch Video
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In short, this coming week is most likely going to be much wilder than last week. While I didn’t cover on the other asset classes just know that precious metals, the major stock indexes, bonds, and oil have al built powerful patterns. Breakouts of these patterns will trigger big moves 10-25% in some cases, so get ready for fireworks this week!
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.
We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/33.jpg6131183adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-06 15:42:152020-04-06 15:42:15Two Leading Indicators for Crude Oil Point To Higher Prices
For years, many Gold Bugs (investors who’ve been advocating buying Gold and Silver at low prices as a hedge against future global economic risks) were shunned as conspiracy theorists and nuts. How could these people believe Gold and Silver were solid investments when the Global equities markets were rallying 5% a year consistently – what could go wrong?
Over the past two weeks, I have personally received multiple phone calls and emails from friends and associates asking how these people can suddenly ”buy physical metals”. In one case, this individual was purchasing Airline and Food Services stocks in late February thinking this move would be short-lived and telling me how the airlines would recover quickly after this is all over. Now, that person wants to know my secret contacts for buying physical metals.
If you know any Gold Bugs, you know we’ve built relationships with suppliers, friends and other Gold Bugs throughout the year. Believe it or not, I can still buy physical metals from a few of my closest associates in the industry. Eric Sprott is a fan of my precious metals forecasts and talked about my work a few times publicly. Eric owns SprottMoney.com. the other source is SDBullion.com. Both of these are my most trusted sources for buying physical gold and silver, I have never had any issues with them and customer support is top-notch!
Yes, the prices have begun to skyrocket a bit – Silver especially. But I can still buy physical metals because I have a deep resource of friends and suppliers.
What’s going to happen over the next few weeks is that more and more average people are suddenly going to realize they should have been buying metals as security against risk. Paper metals are going to explode as well, but physical metals will demand a premium that is much higher than paper/spot price. Right now, one ounce of Silver is going for about $21 to $25 per ounce in physical form (depending on my sources). The current SPOT price of silver is $14.50. That means the premium for physical Silver is between +45% to +75% right now in the open market.
This Daily Gold chart highlights the upside Fibonacci price targets using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system. We believe the next upside price target for Gold is $1825. A higher upside price target is visible on this chart near $1950 and we believe Gold prices will reach this level eventually. But we believe the current $1825 level is the immediate target. This would represent an immediate +10 upside price advance and would establish NEW HIGH prices for the past 9 years.
SILVER DAILY CHART
This Silver Daily chart also highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system and shows an upside price target of $17.25. Remember, the current physical demand for Gold and Silver has skyrocketed over the past 2+ weeks. The Spot price is really not indicative of the open market price of physical at the moment. If Spot Silver moves to $17.25 as we predict, that would be a +19% upside price advance. If Silver advances to $18.25, that would be a +26% upside price advance.
Silver Bugs are loving the setup right now because they know the pattern that sets up in the Metals market when a crisis hits. First, Gold begins to rally faster than Silver and the Gold to Silver ratio spikes higher. Then, once the shock-wave of the market crisis subsides, the metals begin a fairly usual price advance where both Gold and Silver advance – in unequal forms. This is when the real fun for Gold & Silver Bugs begins.
GOLD TO SILVER WEEKLY RATIO CHART
THE SILVER LINING
Take a look at this Gold to Silver Weekly Ratio chart. This chart measures how much one ounce Silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold at current prices. Notice that spike in the ratio back in 2008? That was the spike in gold prices relative to Silver prices as the top formed in 2008 and the “shock wave” struck global investors. What happened? Everyone tried to pile into the Gold trade and ignored Silver for about 6+ weeks.
Then what happened to the Gold to Silver Ratio? It COLLAPSED from levels near 85 to a bottom hear 31. That means the price of Silver advance almost 3x faster than the price of Gold over that span. In order for the ratio to fall from near 90 to levels near 30, that indicates a very expansive price increase in the price of Silver.
Now, take a look at what has happened just recently in the Gold to Silver Ratio… another massive price spike. This time, the spike reached levels near 120 (Yikes). Can you guess why Gold and Silver Bugs are so excited right now? If another price advance takes place in precious metals which is similar to the 2008~2011 rally, Gold may see a 300% to 500% rally and Silver may see a 450% to 900% rally over the next 2 to 3 years.
This is no joke. Physical metals are why Gold and Silver Bugs believe the value of having it in your hands is much better than owning an IOU from a broker or bank.
Get ready for some incredible price moves in the metals markets and congrats to all the Gold and Silver bugs out there. Our analysis says our patience and accumulation of physical metals will soon pay off in a big way.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal this week!
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/22.png582850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-06 14:22:462020-04-06 14:22:46Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up!
What a week, thank goodness its Friday cause we need a break for all the market volatility and weakening economic data.
TraderTV had both Kevin O’Leary and me to talk economy and the markets. Kevin had some really extreme and borderline ethical business ideas, but I do have to admit, if you want to survive as a small business in this environment he has a good point and it could work. I’ll talk about that in a minute, but right now lets takes focus on crude oil, energy stocks, and the Canadian Dollar in the clip below.
TRADERTV ASKS CHRIS HOW TO TRADE OIL, ENERGY STOCKS, AND LOONEY
TRADERTV ASKS KEVIN ABOUT OIL, THE MARKETS, WHAT PEOPLE SHOULD DO
Kevin talks about not paying your rent, suppliers, etc… to preserve cash your business as long as you possibly can. The hope is that this virus and the economic situation stabilize sooner than later but we just don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel yet.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/10.jpg790940adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-06 12:37:052020-04-06 12:37:05Kevin O’leary and Chris Vermeulen on TraderTV Talking Economy & Markets
We can only imagine what many of you are thinking and feeling right now. Shock? Concern? Despair? Some of you have already emailed us asking about the US and Global markets to find out what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting. Today, we’re going to show you what the longer-term Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting for the S&P and NASDAQ.
First, we want to ask you to slow down, take a few seconds to realize we will recover from this virus event and the smart thing to do is protect your family, protect your assets, and prepare for the future. Market crashes happen only 2-3 times in a lifetime and they, not the end of the world or financial system.
This event is different than the 2000 or 2008 market crash events. Each of those past events was somewhat localized events that disrupted a segment or portion of the global economy. Yes, the 2008 event was bigger than the 2000 event, but the localization of the event still presented a similarity that provided a moderately quick recovery process.
Next, we want you to attempt to understand this virus event is a bit different than the most recent crash events. A virus pandemic of this nature will likely result in a much broader economic contraction and various collateral damage processes as it transitions across the globe. Currently, our research team is attempting to watch for the early signs of these collateral damage processes to determine if a broader global market collapse is going to take place. At this time, we must all try to prepare for what is unknown and could happen in the future.
The longer-term generational cycle (the roughly 85-year Strauss-Howe Theory suggests societies navigate a long term cycle that repeats itself, roughly, every 85 years). This societal evolutionary theory centers around the concept that people repeat many of the same failures learned by previous generations – roughly every 85 years. What was learned in the 1920s~1940s will have been forgotten in the 1990s~2020 and many of the same mistakes will be made.
One of our researchers, Brad Matheny, authored a book in March 2019 that analyzed these super-cycles and accurately predicted this market crash could happen as early as August or September 2019. Within this book, Mr. Matheny made great efforts to illustrate how important it is for everyone to become aware of these bigger market cycles and to prepare for what was likely to come near the end of 2019 and into early 2020. You can get your own copy of this book here.
Additionally, smaller market cycles take place within the bigger super-cycles. This example of the 8.6-year business cycle highlights the repetitive nature of these broader market cycles. Think about how 10 of these smaller business cycles equal the much larger 85-year generational cycle. Now, think about how each stage of the roughly 20~21 year generational cycle has played out over the last 85 years.
This screen capture highlights the phases and structures of the broader Strauss-Howe generational theory. Pay very close attention to how structured the process is and what to expect in the future. Also, notice that we entered a CRISIS phase in 2005.
Past cycles have lasted more than the average 20~21 years. Longer cycle lengths are not uncommon within the broader 85-year super-cycle when larger societal events take place. Thus, this current CRISIS phase could last 25 to 35 years before a new HIGH phase sets up.
The reason we are bringing all of this together within this article is because we want to clearly stress forward and future expectations as well as to make our longer-term market concerns very clear to all of you. If, as the generational cycles suggest, we have entered a CRISIS phase and are moving toward a HIGH phase, then we are in the midst of a phase that can be very destructive to institutions and society as a whole.
“According to the authors, the Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.”
These super-cycles and the broader “collateral damage” issue is what leads our researchers to believe the US and Global markets may continue to target much deeper price support levels before finding a bottom. Even though the US and global central banks are doing everything possible to avoid a contagion economic collapse, we believe many people have “forgotten” about these broader market cycles and may be shocked to learn the COVID-19 virus event is happening in the midst of an 85-year generational Super-Cycle that predicts a true price bottom (new HIGH phase) may not set up until 2030~2035.
Let’s take a look at where our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting the markets may bottom.
DAILY S&P 500 FUTURES CHART
We’ll start by exploring this Daily ES chart which highlights two key Fibonacci downside price targets: 1683 and 1225. Look for the GREY and RED lines near the bottom of this chart and look for the BLUE/RED and GREY SQUARES near the right edge of this chart. These SQUARES are the DAILY Fibonacci downside price targets as calculated by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.
Also, pay attention to the CYAN price channel that we’ve drawn on this chart highlighting the current downside price channel that has setup. It is our opinion that price will likely attempt to stay within this price channel as it moves deeper to target these support levels – eventually attempting to set up a bottom near either of these deeper Fibonacci support levels.
WEEKLY S&P 500 FUTURES CHART
This Weekly ES chart highlights the Weekly Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results – which are almost exactly the same as the Daily targets. This is very important if you understand that the Fibonacci price structure is supposed to be structured in a universal means throughout all price activity. Thus, if the Daily and Monthly Fibonacci Modeling system is targeting the exact same levels – then this carries much greater importance to us.
The same downside targets in the ES are 1683 and 1225. These represent a continued downside price move of -32.75% or -50.25% from current levels. The YELLOW lines we’ve drawn on the chart represent what we believe the bottom may look like if the first level of support, 1683, acts at a bottom. We do believe a bottom will set up in a FLAG formation that may take many months to complete before any real rally begins.
This Weekly NQ chart points to an even deeper price bottom. The downside Fibonacci targets are 3900 and 1865 (-48.59% and -75.15% below current price levels). These deeper price targets suggest the NASDAQ market may become unusually volatile over the next 12 to 24+ months. We believe this could become an unforeseen risk for many global investors that believe technology will recover faster than many other market sectors. If our research is correct, the NASDAQ could collapse to far deeper levels than the S&P or the Dow Industrials.
How could the NASDAQ collapse like this? Remember the “collateral damage” aspect and think about what it would take for these technology companies to loose their financial support? Companies like Twitter, Uber and dozens of others operate with negative annual cash-flow – they depend on spending money they can’t earn to stay in business. If this cash reserve vanishes – what happens?
The process of getting to these lows can come in many forms – yet the targets are still there for us to understand and prepare for.
On the weekend I wrote an interesting post sharing a trading experience I had during the 2000 bull market and how there are some similarities in price patterns and psychologically with traders as we have right now. It’s worth a read.
Watch for the global markets to continue to target recent lows. On the NQ chart, above, we’ve drawn some CYAN lines near recent lows to illustrate these levels. If the global markets do collapse to the Fibonacci levels we are predicting, then a much bigger contagion event is taking place along with the generational cycles and an unraveling of many institutional processes and functions. Remember, we may continue within the CRISIS phase of the Super-Cycle for another 3 to 10+ years. The COVID-19 virus event may be just the trigger of this collapse – but the writing has been on the wall for many decades.
Be very cautious buying into these dips at the moment. We have been warning about this event for a while. Just last week we published a short guide and our basic trading and investing strategy on how to profit from bear market cycles – explained. Our researchers predicted August/September 2019 as the “critical date” and urged “move to cash” at that time to protect your assets from this event – few listened to us while the markets continued to push higher.
Luckily, on February 23rd we closed out all of our remaining positions for our active ETF trading account with our subscribers. Our trading accounts are sitting at a new high watermark and we avoided the market crash and took advantage of the 20% rally in bonds.
Maybe more people will listen to us after reading this article and prepare for what may come in the near future? Maybe some of you will grasp the idea that these Super-Cycles are real and learn this may become the greatest opportunity of your life with our help.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/1.jpg5891178adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-03 10:16:302020-04-03 10:16:30Stock Market Has Entered a 25-35year Crisis Cycle Re-evaluation Event
Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.
What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.
There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/210.png657467adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-02 13:34:092020-04-02 13:34:09Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free
Thinking somewhat far off into the future, our researchers believe China/Asia could become the next Black Hole in the global economy. China recently released its March PMI number which came in at 52.0 – showing moderate expansion in Chinese manufacturing. The February Chinese PMI level was 35.7. We strongly believe China wants to show some strength in their perceived economic recovery and that these PMI numbers are somewhat “manufactured for effect”.
We believe the real economic toll taking place in China/Asia will continue to unfold over the next 3 to 6+ months as the historic expansion of wealth and the exported foreign investment from Wealthy Chinese continues to contract over this time. In a very similar manner to what happened in the US when the Japanese economy contracted in the 1990s – as wealth creation processes collapse, these foreign investors suddenly start to liquidate assets trying to protect their “home-country assets”.
We’ve recently posted an article suggesting the US Real Estate market could suddenly find itself in a real measurable collapse and we believe the foreign investors, speculators and speculative renters (Air BnB and others) will suddenly find themselves in a very difficult situation. You can find our Real Estate article here.
As the COVID-19 virus event continues to unfold, the data from global nations will quickly identify any outlier factors and data points related to China/Asia and how they are reporting their data. Chinese economic data has raised suspicions for quite some time with global analysts. It seems highly unlikely that the Chinese economy rebounded from an almost complete shutdown in February and most of March to a moderate manufacturing growth level at the end of March 2020. Meanwhile, throughout the rest of the globe, economies, and manufacturing levels are contracting as the COVID-19 shutdown continues.
We believe the disparity between the global markets and the numbers China continues to proffer will quickly result in a complete lack of confidence in future data related to any Chinese economic activity or future expectations. We also believe the global capital markets will make an immediate shift away from risks associated with any falsified data originating from China by mitigating forward risks in investments and currency market exposure over the next 3 to 5+ years – possibly longer.
What happens when global events like the COVID-19 virus event takes place is that capital immediately attempts to identify extreme risks and attempt to move to safer environments. Currencies are no different. Global markets, investment, and manufacturing are increasingly exposed to risks related to the shifting markets and any false or otherwise “outlier” data being reported right now. The bigger players can’t afford to take risks and will take active measures to protect their futures and investments.
Our opinion is that the Chinese PMI level of 52 for March 2020 is an outlier data point. This virus event started in early January in China and almost all of February and March were when the globe suddenly became aware of the risks and infection spread. Even though China may have attempted to ramp up manufacturing over the past 2+ weeks to appear to be “back to normal” – it makes no sense to us that manufacturing in China actually “expanded”, based on historical levels, that quickly.
Watch how quickly global economies and currencies work to mitigate the risks related to perceived “outlier data”. We believe most of Asia will continue into an economic contraction over the next 3+ months and we believe the FOREX market will relate the immediate risk concerns related to Asia/China/global market expectations. In other words, watch the currencies to see how global investors perceive risks associated with true economic activity.
The World Bank many not have a deep enough piggy bank to back the extended risks of an Asian Economic contraction lasting 6+ months.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/202.png685911adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-02 08:17:082020-04-02 08:17:08Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HoweStreet.png251400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-01 10:55:532020-04-01 10:55:53Are Equities Likely To Rally?
As the world reacts to the global economic slowdown because of the COVID-19 virus event and the massive stimulus programs and central bank efforts to support the global economy, investors still expect weakness in the US and foreign markets. We believe this expected weakness will not subside until news of a proper resolution to this virus event is rooted in the minds of investors and global markets.
Hong Kong and China are currently concerned about experiencing a “third wave” of the COVID-19 virus within their society. As the economies open back up to somewhat normal, people are very concerned that a renewed wave of new infections will suddenly appear and potentially result in another shut-down event or infectious cycle? We believe all nations are watching what is happening in Hong Kong and China as they attempt to reopen their economies.
The rest of the world is still battling the rising infection rates and dealing with the economic shutdowns that have brought the global economy to its knees. Europe, Japan, Canada, and the US are all experiencing vast disruptions to their economies and commodity prices and demand expectations are collapsing as a result.
Nearly a week ago, we issued a research article that suggested our proprietary Fibonacci Price Modeling tool’s key resistance levels may become a very valid ceiling for any price recovery. It appears this is happening in the markets as the NQ Daily chart, below, shows.
The NQ resistance level, near 7880, has acted as a soft ceiling in the NQ over the past 4+ trading days. Today, the NQ briefly rallied above this level, then rotated downward below this level again to confirm this key resistance level. We believe this critical Fibonacci resistance level may continue to act as a price ceiling over the next few trading days and push prices lower as economic news and expectations hit the news this week and next.
The next downside price target for the NQ is 6565 – new price lows.
This ES Weekly chart illustrates another key resistance level near 2679. Although the ES price has not rallied up to reach this critical Fibonacci resistance level, we still believe this level is acting as a price ceiling and that the ES will weaken as future expectations are confirmed by earnings data, economic data and other collateral damage to the global economy.
We are still very early in understanding the total scope of this virus event. The US and other global central banks are attempting to front-run any weakened expectations as a result of this virus event. We continue to believe the extended collateral damage to the consumer, business and other aspects of the economy are yet to come. Most recently, consumer delinquencies have begun to skyrocket and the news is being printed about landlords and renters being unable to satisfy obligations on April 1st.
This is part of the reason why we believe further caution is warranted at this time in the markets. We issued an Important Trade and Investment Alert Yesterday.
Our research team believes a deeper price low will likely set up over the next 30+ days to establish a true price bottom. As we’ve warned, we believe extended collateral damage to the US and global economy will soon become better understood and the extended shutdown of the US and other economies only manages to complicate any positive expectations for a bottom.
We believe a deeper price low will set up within the next 30+ days and we urge skilled traders to pay attention to the broader expectations of the markets. Earnings data and other economic data will continue to stream into the news centers over the next 30+ days. Don’t get too aggressive with trying to buy a bottom in the markets just yet. Be patient and wait for the markets to show you when the bottom has really setup.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/191.png601850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-01 07:54:302020-04-01 07:54:30Weakness Appears To Be Setting For This Week’s Economic Data
Many traders become very emotional when the markets turn Bearish and fail to properly understand that price structure is still driving market price movement. This morning, I highlighted this structure to my subscribers attempting to alert them to the possibility that the markets could recover moderately over the next 3 to 5+ days attempting to set up the next “waterfall” downside price event.
On January 29, 2020, I posted a research article detailing my belief that a “waterfall” type of event was setting up in the markets. This article was nearly 30 days prior to the peak in the markets. It explained how events take place and how markets tend to develop a moderate recovery phase between selloff price declines.
Skilled traders should notice the size and levels of each selloff event in the chart (above) and pay very close attention to how price initially collapsed from the peak, then recovered nearly 50% in early and late November before finally setting up a deeper waterfall price collapse in early December.
Our research team believes the US stock markets may attempt something similar over the next 3 to 5+ days as the Covid-19 economic outcome continues to process through the global markets.
The US and other Central Banks have taken broad steps to attempt to overcome the negative economic outcomes related to the Covid-19 global shutdown. Their biggest concern is that consumer activity could diminish and banking/credit firms could come under severe pressures because of a consumer collapse.
There are over 35 million US low-wage jobs that may become at-risk because of the Covid-19 virus event. We believe the true economic contagion of the global virus event may now be known until well into April or May 2020. Yet we believe these at-risk, low-wage jobs are prevalent throughout the globe and foreign nations, such as Asia and Europe, may experience a similar consumer economic contagion over the next 6+ months.
We believe the data related to the Covid-19 economic crisis will not fully be known until well into April or May 2020. Because of this, we believe the US stock markets may recover to levels near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels on these charts before attempting a series of further downside price moves. Skilled traders should not become overly emotional right now and pay attention to the structure of the price action as well as other technical conditions in play at the moment. Our objective is to execute trades with a highly targets success rate – not to trade on emotions.
SPY DAILY CHART
This SPY Daily chart shows the SPY would only need to rally 18.70 points to reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on this chart. This could happen very quickly given how close the price actually is to this key Fibonacci level. If that were to happen over the next 3 to 5+ trading days, the downward sloping price channels from our TTCharger modeling system would move lower to meet price near 278 – which would set up a new resistance zone and possibly a new wave of selling.
INDU DAILY CHART
This INDU Daily chart shows the Dow Jones would have to rally about 2025 points (to levels near 23,886) to reach the 50% Fibonacci Retracement target. If this were to happen, the sloping price channels on this chart would likely move lower to meet price near this 50% target level – presenting a very clear resistance zone for a new wave of selling to begin.
Remember, it is not about emotions or attempting to try to force the markets to adopt your “belief”. Skilled traders attempt to identify risks, opportunities and realistic technical setups that allow them to objectively determine where and when the markets are providing a real opportunity for success.
We may be just a few days away from the next major wave of selling, yet any trader who jumped into an emotional trader over the past 5+ days expecting the markets to continue to break down is likely under a fair amount of stress right now. Learn to read the charts and the structure of price more effectively and you’ll find the answers are already on the charts in front of you.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.
If you are a more active trader and swing trader visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to look into my Long-Term Investing Signals.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/182.png465850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-04-01 07:27:592020-04-01 07:27:59The Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck
We just issued this trade alert to members of The Technical Investor newsletter which allows members to protect their wealth and assets while continuing to take advantage of opportunities generated by the US and global markets. This is the first trade alert issued in 2020 of this kind.
If you are an active investor or traders, have a retirement account of any type or have assets in the stock market, then we urge you to take action and sign up to get this investment trade signal.
Our focus is to help traders and investors protect and grow their wealth. We use proprietary price modeling tools that can’t be found anywhere else. Our combined 55+ years investing and active trading experience provides you with incredible insight and opportunity.
Passive investing is something for the “other guys”. If you want to grow your wealth, protect your assets and learn to take advantage of the biggest price swings in the markets, then you need to follow our research and price modeling systems with us.
If you are concerned this may to be active for you, just know that we only buy the SP500 ETFs or move your money to cash where it is the most effective at times. If you can call your broker and tell them what to do with our alert instruction, or if you can place the trades yourself, then you can follow these investing signals.
Each year we have 2-3 trade opportunities to add new capital to the market, and some years we may have a new bull or bear market signal. Remember, bull market trades will last 5-12 years, bear market trades will last 1-3 years. No matter what, we can make money during both markets.
Since 2007, Passive Investing would have returned only 53.75% ROI – only 4.48% annually. Active investing using our proprietary price modeling systems and deploying our proprietary position allocation modeling tools returned over 135% ROI – a 11.49% annually over the same time period. That’s a whopping 230% more annual return than simply letting your investments ride out the market fluctuations.
Allow us to take a minute to explain just how powerful this advantage really is to you.
Imagine you started with a $100,000 account and compared the difference between a passive investment style and TheTechnicalInvestor.com trading style over a span of 10 to 15 years. Most investors contribute to their retirement accounts over a 25+ year span of time – possibly longer. The difference between the two styles of investing is dramatically different in terms of the final results:
At the 5 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $48,000 in extra profits (over +38% more growth for your assets).
At the 10 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $140,000 in extra profits (over +91% more growth for your assets).
At the 15 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $318,000 in extra profits (over +164% more growth for your assets).
After the 15 year example (assuming your passive investment style maintained a 4.48% annual ROI and our active investment style maintained a 11.49% annual ROI), the results are stunning.
With passive investing, you would have nearly DOUBLED your assets and wealth.
With TheTechnicalInvestor.com active investing, you would have more than TRIPLED your assets and wealth.
When you add our proprietary “re-entry” triggering system, the numbers explode to +40% annual ROI with 1x leverage; 3512% with 2x leverage; 9417% with 3x leverage.
The difference is that we help you navigate the bigger price swings/trends in the market and actively help you manage your allocation in the markets using our proprietary price and position sizing technology.
What’s the cost for TheTechnicalInvestor.com? $249 per year or $149 every 6 months. Annually that breaks down to about $21 a month, which is $1 per trading day to know you are on the right side of the market.
Isn’t it time you took advantage of proprietary technology and services and started to create even more opportunities to grow your assets? The market volatility recently has created an incredible opportunity for everyone that has a retirement/401k account. Now is the time to focus on these big price swings because this is when opportunities are created to grow your wealth 3 to 5 times faster.
Visitwww.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn more. Sign up today to learn what our newest trade alert action is all about and how you can start profiting from these huge price swings in the future. $21 a month is nothing when you really think about it. Join our other subscribers in learning to protect and grow your wealth with our technology today.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategiest
Found of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/172.png532915adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-03-31 17:11:392020-03-31 17:11:39Important Trade and Investment Alert Was Issued
