Chris Joins Tom Bodrovics from Palisades Radio to discuss the recent moves in the markets and why money has resumed the move into equities. A new rally in equities could spill over to precious metals, thus putting pressure onto the US dollar.
Currently, the dollar is trading at the critical $94 level and, should it collapse, this could also serve to drive precious metal prices higher. Precious metals, such as gold, are pushing against the US Dollar, and we’re starting to see a momentum shift in GDXJ. On the flip side, miners like GDX and SILJ rely on energy prices remaining steady to stay profitable. Thus, as energy prices increase, the pressure is put on metals.
To Learn More click on the Video link Below
GET YOUR DAILY DOSE OF CHRIS’ PRECIOUS METALS ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE HOTTEST ETFS TO TRADE WITH BAN TRADER PRO NOW PART OF THE TOTAL ETF PORTFOLIO!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/palicades.jpg5681311adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2021-11-11 07:56:222021-11-11 07:56:30US Dollar & Precious Metals: How Do They Relate? Video
In recent weeks we have seen TSLA and NVDA make parabolic moves and are crashing to the upside. With the incredible market run we have had since 2008, many, including me, did not see this coming. The big question looms here: What is fueling these markets higher now after such a significant bull run?
The answer is that we are being squeezed up. As an options trader, I pay close attention to the options markets and how they affect the broader markets. Every time an options contract is bought, there is a series of events that occur. So let’s go through that real quick.
Options Contract Process
If we bought one at the money call of, let’s say TSLA, we procure that from a market maker. That market maker is not in the business of taking a massive risk, so they will buy 100 shares of TSLA and profit on the difference in the price of the options to the stock. So when we see TSLA or NVDA stock price making a 5-6 sigma move and wonder who is buying the top, indirectly it is retail traders who are buying call options in TSLA and NVDA. We have so many new traders in the markets who are jumping in and buying a TSLA call because it always goes up!
Think about this; we have had one of the most significant pandemics ever with substantial economic impacts, people not working, less economic activity, and yet the markets are continually reaching all-time highs. So what do we do here? Do we do the traditional buy-and-hold strategy buying at record highs? Do we start shorting the markets because they are at all-time highs and watch them continue to defy logic and continue their ascent as we lose?
The answer to all this is we trade the markets – like TSLA and NVDA. We trade by getting in and getting out and limiting our market exposure until this corrects. We can get the same return as the traditional buy and hold with WAY less risk by trading, and we can do that using options and option strategies.
TSLA & NVDA – Learn Before You Earn
Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head option’s trading specialist Neil Szczepanski, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Come check it out here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy your day!
Chris Vermeulen Founder & Chief Market Strategist TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/options-e1636471121734.jpg265400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2021-11-09 17:26:452021-11-09 17:26:52What Keeps Driving These Markets Up
ARKW ETF trader tip – Technical Traders goes over ARKW ETF which is the next generation internet. Chris follows and trades the ARK Invest ETFs with his sector rotation strategy using pure technical analysis, and this is his ARKW Invest ETF Stock review for a new trade idea of which ARK ETF is best.
Subscribers to any service at The Technical Traders: Please let us know via a member ticket what you would like to learn about and we will do our best to make sure this happens.
Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!
BEST ARKW ETF TO BUY NOW – WATCH THE VIDEO
Which ARK exchange-traded fund is best to buy now?
I see ARKW as the best exchange-traded fund to buy for growth.
In this video, I’m going over the charts as a technical analyst to show you everything you need to know about the ark invest ARKW ETF.
What I like about the overall stock market condition with the small-cap stocks (Momentum and Growth Stocks) breaking to new highs is that is what many of the ARK ETF holdings are. It is always crucial to understand if investors are buying or selling any sector or ETF as you don’t want to invest in ARK funds if the price is still falling.
Follow us and get our ARK Invest ETF Trade alerts.
TO EXPLORE THE DIFFERENT TRADING STRATEGIES CHRIS OFFERS, PLEASE VISIT US AT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Trader-Tip.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2021-11-08 21:25:372021-11-08 21:25:46ARKW ETF – Trade Tip Video Analysis
Watching the US Stock Market start a big rally phase after the October 12th base/bottom raised a few questions in my head because the Small-Caps/Mid-Caps were not showing a strong upward price trend like the rest of the market. Even though I called this upward price trend many weeks before it happened, I was surprised that the Small-Caps/Mid-Caps lagged the S&P500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ as the rally initiated.
I wrote about this setup in the IWM recently and detailed my expectations in these articles/posts:
Within my August 25, 2021 article, I was very clear that the $207 level was acting as critical support as IWM transitioned into the APEX of the dual Price Flag formation.
The $207 low, which was set on March 5, 2021, established a unique price low that traders could use as a “make-or-break” level in the event of a bigger breakdown in price. If that $207 level was breached by a strong downside price trend, then I would have expected an even bigger breakdown event to take place.
Watch For Resistance Near $245 On IWM
In early October, IWM started to narrow into a price range between $217 and $225. Then, on October 14, 2021, a mild upside price gap was set up. I expected more volatility in price at this time as the other US major indexes were starting to rally quite strongly. IWM started a bigger upside price trend nearly two weeks later, near October 29, 2021, and started a big breakout rally phase in early November 2021.
Long-term resistance, near $244~$245, may briefly pause this rally before price levels continue higher. This rally phase is showing very strong volume and accumulation as traders pile into the Christmas Rally trends.
Extended Congestion In Price Suggests $263~$264 Is Upside Target For IWM
When I look at the extended sideways price congestion phase on this Weekly IWM chart, below, I typically expect the price to break the congestion phase by a 100% range of the congestion. Using this theory, I believe the $263~$264 level will become the next immediate upside price target for IWM as this rally continues.
Another key facet of the extended congestion phase is the longer price stays in a congestion phase, the more volatile the breakout/breakdown in price may become. At this point, after more than 8 months of congestion, we may see IWM rally well into Q1:2022 and quite possibly rally well above my $263~$264 target level.
In closing, the most important aspect of this rally in the Russell 2000/IWM is that we are now seeing a very broad US stock market rally phase set up ahead of the typically strong Christmas Rally to close out the year. This is very exciting and opportunistic for traders that were positioned for a big rally.
My analysis suggests this rally may continue into early January 2022 – where my cycle analysis suggests a change in price trend may initiate after January 18th or so. Follow my research and learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.
Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. We’ve built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Chart_21-11-05_IWM_D.png572850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2021-11-05 11:58:312021-11-05 11:58:38IWM Rally May Find Brief Resistance Near $244~$245 Before Rocketing Higher
Our research team warned of a peak in the Financial Sector ETF on June 10, 2020, with this article.
It was important to understand the technical setup that existed at that time and what the Fibonacci Price Modeling system was showing then. There was very clear support near $23 that was highlighted by the Fibonacci Price Modeling System and we were very clear in our future price predictions within that article…
“The $27 price peak sets up directly between our two Fibonacci Daily upside price target (Peak) levels. We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days. The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers. “
The timing of our original article could not have been better for skilled technical traders. Since that June 10, 2020 article posted, the XLF price has fallen almost exactly to $23 (-10.15%).
Currently, the FLX price is recovering just above the price gap that will act as the next “window” for the price to attempt to fill. Skilled technical traders should watch the Breakdown Gap that setup between June 10 and June 11 as an upper window of resistance (between $25.20 and $24.35). It is very likely that the XLF price may attempt to breach or fill this gap window before initiating another downside price move targeting levels below $22.
It is our opinion that should sudden price weakness drive price levels lower, away from the upper gap range, then weakness in the financial sector could create a series of new lower price gaps as XLF price levels attempt to gap downward – through $22, then $20, then ultimately the $18 to $19 price level.
This Weekly XLF chart highlights the longer-term Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s expectations showing the current downside price move has broken below the Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger Level near $24.87. At this point, the next lower support level is near $22.10 – just below the lower Gap level.
It is our opinion that the Financial Sector ETF will attempt to break below $22 in the near future and may attempt to fall to levels near or below $20. The current support in the market from the $23 level may prompt a move into the upper Gap level before the next downside move begins – although we feel that is not likely to happen.
WEEKLY XLF CHART
Watch for a breakdown in price trading below $23.50 as an indication that weakness has prompted price to trade below the recent “Belt-Line” price level. We believe a new close below $23.50 would be a good indication that the lower Gap is about to be filled and a deeper price move may take place targeting $20 to $21.
As the Q2 data starts to hit the news wires over the next 4+ weeks, we believe risks to the financial system will become very evident as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown. Be prepared for increased volatility in almost all sectors and the very real potential for a retest of recent low price levels.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.
Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/11-1.png574850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-06-16 22:44:512020-06-16 22:44:51Financial Sector ETF May Break Below Price Gap
Our research team authored an article suggesting that our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Predictive Modeling system indicated the US major markets were 12% to 15% overvalued on May 23, 2020. This was just before the last “euphoric” phase of the recent rally took began the week after our prediction. From the date of May 23, 2020, to the recent peak in the markets, the SPY rallied another 9.72% above the price levels when we made the ADL prediction. This suggests that the major markets rallied to levels near 21% to 24% overvalued near the recent peak.
In keeping with our research team’s conclusions, the downside price move that initiated on Wednesday, June 10, 2020, after the US Fed statements, and really broke down on June 11, 2020, will likely continue resulting in the US major markets attempting to find support near our ADL predictive modeling system levels. The downside price trend could extend below our ADL price target levels if the selling in the markets pushes into an extreme selling event. It is not uncommon for the price to attempt to move through the ADL price levels attempting to find support and/or resistance.
This is the ES chart showing our ADL predictive modeling system results from the May 23, 2020 date. You can see the ADL predicted price levels near 2520 on this chart and the fact that the markets rallied away from these levels in late May created what we call a “price anomaly”. This is when price moves away from the ADL levels in a manner that is somewhat unreasonable. The same thing happened during the peak price level in early February 2018 and the October peak in 2018.
SPY ADL PREDICTED TARGET LEVEL DAILY
Based on our ADL predictive modeling system and the targeted price levels, we believe the SPY will fall to levels close to or below $260 over the next 10 to 15+ days. It makes perfect sense that the markets over-extended a speculative price rally based on the context that the US economy would rebound from the COVID-19 shutdown.
Now that the US Fed has deflated that expectation and the riots and other issues related to social and political events are pending, we believe a “sudden realization” within the markets could send the US stock market price levels much lower over the next 2+ weeks – eventually attempting to find support near recent lows.
We actually posted our technical forecast for the market crash, the 30% rally, and called this blow-off top and reversal 4 days before it happened in this video a while back.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Remember, developing a winning strategy is not about trading every trend and day-trading every move, it is about timing your trades and strategically positioning your portfolio to take advantage of the “best asset now”. We’ve developed proprietary technology that assists us in determining the best assets to be invested in and our predictive modeling and other proprietary tools assist us in identifying confirmed trade triggers. Our objective is to assist our clients in generating consistent profits – not hundreds of trades.
If you were caught on the wrong side of this move recently, please remember that we tried to warn you of our multiple research articles and clear content. We’ve been warning that this upside rally was a speculative price move driven by foreign and US investors believing the V-shaped recovery was real. The reality of the situation is that this recovery is going to be much more volatile than many people believe. This is a global economic event – not just a Fed Blip or some other isolated panic volatility.
You better stay on top of these trends and risks in the markets to stay ahead of these bigger moves.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.
Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/1.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-06-15 11:05:002020-06-15 11:05:00Revisiting Our ADL Predictions for S&P 500
This hybrid article with videos walks you through what and why the markets crashed, what they are starting to do now, and how you can take advantage of this black swan event.
The year has been filled with big broad market swings, sell-offs, and rallies, making people pull their hair out and scream. Only those who don’t understand portfolio risk, position-sizing, and can’t read the charts are in pain this year. Unfortunately, that’s the majority of traders thought.
The video below covers what is happening in the markets this week, today, and what to expect looking forward several weeks, so get ready for some incredible market moves!
With that said this year has been a little slower with our portfolio simply because we focus on steady growth. We don’t ride the stock market rollercoaster, which has everyone stressed out. We see no point in holding positions and dealing with the stress which comes with it when you can sidestep it or better yet, profit from it.
My focus is on our BAN strategy, which stands for “Best Asset Now.” We review 30+ markets, sectors, commodities, and currencies to find the best opportunity with the lowest level of risk. We are not looking for a bunch of volatile trades. Instead, we shoot for a 1-4% return on our entire portfolio a month, which may sound dull but do the math, and you soon realize its tough to beat!
Price swings and volatility are high this year are extreme, which means we pear back the number of trades we make, and reduce position size to protect both our subscribers trading and investing accounts, along with our own.
This market volatility is attracting new traders to the market like a mosquito to a bug zapper light. We, on the other hand, take the opposite approach and step back to only cherry-pick a few low-risk trades here and there.
When stocks and commodities are moving 10-92% a day as we have seen recently, it’s not the best time to be risking your hard-earned month because you can do a lot of damage quickly overnight with the way this market had been behaving.
Anyway, if you are looking for a simple, logical trading strategy with ETFs that is hitting new high watermarks for the year with less than a 3% drawdown on the year, then watch this video of my most recent analysis and prediction.
Here are the other two other videos I referenced in the video above: showing the price predictions before they happened.
FEB 21: BLACK SWAN EVENT BEGINS
We called the Black Swan Even late 2019, not knowing what it would be, then on February 21, we warned the black swan event had begun – Read Here.
We also warned of the waterfall sell-off before that on Jan 26 – Read here
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.
Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/62.png231400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-06-12 14:47:042020-06-12 14:47:04The Black Swan Event for Stocks is About to Repeat
The trend higher for the Nasdaq-100 remains intact from a technical standpoint. The Tech Traders Founder Chris Vermeulen joins Jill Malandrino on Nasdaq to talk about if the trend will hold or reverse.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop another 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.
Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how. One of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position but we do have a way for you or your advisor can take advantage of the market gyrations with our Technical Wealth Advisor investing signals.
If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/50-1.png235400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-06-11 11:10:102020-06-11 11:10:10Trend Higher for the Nasdaq will it Hold?
The Financial sector is unique in that it is an essential component of global economics as well as local economic functions. Consumers depend on banking services, credit, and all sorts of other financial services in their day-to-day lives. The Financial sector is one of the components of the US stock market that can suddenly find itself under pricing pressure as an economic crisis event unfolds. This happens because banks earn a large portion of their income from servicing debt and originating loans.
The recent rally in the Financial sector, over 47% from the March 2020 lows, has reached our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s upside price targets and has also filled a major gap that was created in early March 2020. Because of these factors, and the current downside price rotation within the Financial Sector, we believe this component of the US stock market could continue to see extended pricing pressure going forward as we learn just how damaging the past 70+ days of the economic shutdown have been for the economy.
We do know that certain consumers have quickly begun to pay off credit card debt. We believe this is a learned trait from the 2008-09 market crisis where credit card rates skyrocketed as large numbers of consumers began defaulting on their homes and other types of credit. We also know that delinquencies for autos and other sub-prime credit services have begun to skyrocket higher. The sub-prime credit market is vastly different than it was in 2008-09. Recently, Fintech and other new resources have allowed for extended sub-prime lending and leveraging within the US (Source: cnbc.com).
When you combine the sub-prime mortgage, auto, personal loans, personal Fintech margin capabilities, and sub-AAA corporate debt levels, the total amount of at-risk subprime debt must exceed $2 trillion US Dollars. We believe this source of risk has been greatly underestimated in terms of risk to the Financial Sector over the next 12+ months (Source: zerohedge.com).
NON-100 LARGEST BANKS CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES
The current delinquency rate among the non-100 largest US banks for credit cards has already climbed well above the 2008-2010 peak levels. It appears subprime borrowers are already pushed well beyond their limits in terms of servicing current debt levels. This suggests a contraction in the credit market will likely take place over the next 24+ months as these at-risk borrowers default at greater rates. This could transition into the housing market and other sectors of the economy if multiple waves of sub-prime borrowers stress the US financial system because of the COVID-19 shutdown.
XLF FINANCIAL ETF INDEX DAILY CHART
Our research team believes the peak in the XLF ETF has already set up after the recent 47%+ rally from the March lows. The $27 price peak sets up directly between our two Fibonacci Daily upside price target (Peak) levels. We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days. The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers.
XLF FINANCIAL ETF INDEX WEEKLY CHART
This XLF Weekly chart highlights the recent rally and the “Gap” that recently filled. It is our belief that the range between the MAGENTA horizontal lines represents a very clear support/resistance level within this longer-term XLF chart. We believe that price will have to fall below $25 in order to initiate a deeper downside price move targeting recent low price levels or price will have to move above $27.50 in order to continue to rally. Currently, our researchers believe the downside potential has a much higher probability of success as we get closer to the end of Q2:2020.
If our research is correct and XLF falls below the $25 price level, we believe it will target at least $22 to $22.50 before finding some support. If it breaks below the $22 price level, it could fall well below the $20 price level again on weaker expectations.
These types of price swings can be incredible setups for skilled technical traders. Follow our research and learn how we can help you find and execute better trades. We recently executed a new swing trade for our members that is already showing great opportunity. Protect your capital and learn to trade proven technical setups with our dedicated team of researchers and traders.
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain, and we closed out another winning trade on Friday.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/42.png574850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-06-10 18:13:162020-06-10 18:13:16Financial Sector Under Pressure and What It Means
I talked with HoweStreet.com yesterday about the markets and what is unfolding and how to play it.
This video shows the charts and thinking of what is to come this week/next as the rising wedge blow-off top takes place and gets everyone emotional (short covering / Fear of missing the next rally)
As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors. Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.
Subscribers of my Investor and Swing Trading Newsletters had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain, and we closed out another winning trade last Friday.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.
