I hope everyone had a great weekend and Easter Holiday!
This is quick update as its Easter Sunday and it’s a time to relax with the family 🙂
Below are two charts and my thoughts on what I am looking for in the coming days and weeks.
Gold Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart
As you can see the price action of gold has been trading within a few patterns the past couple months. First we saw a nice ABC Retrace correction and now it looks like a possible reverse Head & Shoulders or Wedge pattern is forming.
All three of these patterns are bullish but resistance must be overcome before I will start putting my money to work.
NYSE & NASDAQ Indexes – Daily Charts
We saw the broad market trade sideways for the majority of the week. As usual we had a pre-holiday pop in prices with the week closing slightly positive for stocks. These gains are generally given back the following week as volume picks back up.
The one thing that has me scratching my head is that the major indexes like SP500, Dow, NASDAQ and Russell 2000, all stayed below their previous weeks high. But the NYSE as shown below as the top chart clearly broke out to a new high.
I look at the NYSE as leading indicator and this makes me think we could see stocks grind higher right into earning season. All we can do at this point is wait for more data points on the chart and continue analyzing the market one day at a time.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
As I mentioned last week, the market is over extended as we enter earning season. The market is in the same situation as we saw going into the January earning season.
I do not think we will have a huge pullback but I think a 3-5% correction is likely in the coming days or week. Once we get a pullback we should see support around the 30 or 50 day moving averages and then see the market head toward new highs once again.
The precious metals sector is getting a lot of attention because of the whistle blower on JP Morgan stating that metals are seriously manipulated with a huge amount of short positions still in place. I think this could be helping this sector and I hope we get a low risk setup in the coming week or two.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-04-04 22:29:262014-03-10 09:32:14What to Expect in April for Stocks & Precious Metals
Gold and the stock market continue to trade within a tight range this week. While the long term trend for both stocks and metals are up, and the charts look bullish I am not buying at this level because the market is over bought.
Chasing prices higher especially after a run this large is not the right move in my opinion. I did mention last week that we could see stocks continue to grind higher going into earning season which is about 2 weeks away still. I think that could happen, and if the same thing happens which we saw last January with great earnings (which I think we will see again) then watch out for another drop.
In short, if earning are good which they have been and everyone is expecting the same this April, then the typical Buy on Rumor (pre-earnings rally) which is what we have now, and Sell on the Good News in April then all the suckers thinking the market should rally will provide some liquidity for the smart money to sell at a premium.
That being said, if the earning are not good, then people will sell on that news also because the market is just waiting for news to sell… It’s the exact same situation as last time, that’s how I am feeling about it.
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Trading Bottoms in the Broad Market
The past few months I have been really focusing on buying dips in the broad market after I see a mini 3 wave correction. I use a mix between price patterns, volume, market sentiment, and market internals and of course years of watching how the market moves and evolves during times of economic expansion and contractions. This is represented on the chart below as the purple line.
This chart below shows one of my custom indicators which have successfully timed intermediate market bottoms 1-2 days before everything started to rally higher. This is one of the reasons we bought into the selling on Feb 5th and again on Feb 25th using ETF’s.
Because this is a new etf trading strategy and type of trading signal to be used in a bull market I still have to fin tune it a little more because I want to be sure we don’t get shaken out of positions to early which is what happened to a couple ETF’s we got into Feb 5th.
What happened was were buying when EVERYONE was bearish and panicking out of positions making it an extremely emotional time for traders and myself to buy into the market. This is not an easy task… I still have trouble pulling the trigger on these days and some times I just sit back in my chair and with one quick poke from my finger I hit the enter button to buy. My heart pounding just from that… but add few thousand followers on the pile relying on quality analysis and you start to understand what im going though. Not to mention the hundreds of emails with people telling me the market is about to crash, we should be shorting etc…
Crazy times for sure 🙂
Anyways, I will be provided these new signals for subscribers which is very exciting. Because my focus is on managing risk and keeping it as low as possible this will be a learning curve as I apply it to the service and set protective stops which is very difficult to do during a time of high volatility in the market. We can see the market move 2-4% in one day during these times so if we are trading the TNA 3x leveraged Russell2000 fund we could see our position drop 12% in one day. Bigger risk, bigger rewards as they say.
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GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
Gold and silver are currently trading in limbo at the moment. It’s tough to say what’s going to happen here which is why I continue to wait for something with a high probability of winning before putting any money to work.
The daily chart clearly shows a multi month bull flag, ABC retrace, Reverse Head & Shoulders, and wedge. All of which are very bullish. It’s just a waiting game as I do not jump the gun on any move because the market has the tendency to catch everyone off guard and I don’t want to be one of them. Been there, done that to many times….
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Mid-Week ETF Trading Signals Conclusion:
Keeping things short and simple, I think the stock market is in a major bull market. I am not buying anything until we get a pullback of some type. If the market unfolds properly we could have a great shorting opportunity (profit from a falling market) happening any day now, so that is my main focus at this time.
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March 28th 2010
Last week the general market continued to grind its way higher for yet another week. Overall I feel the market is very much over bought. We all know the market can stay in extreme overbought levels for extended periods of time making it very difficult to pick tops.
This is the reason I do not try to pick tops, but rather wait for a top to form before putting my money to work. While a bottom can be made in 1 day, tops tend to take days and some times months to complete.
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A few things really stood out to me when looking back on last week’s price action.
1. Gold (GLD Fund) was only up 0.29% for the week while the gold mining stocks (GDX Fund) was down over 3.5%. This strong divergence really has me concerned about the price of gold in the near term. Gold stocks generally lead gold and if they are down 10x more than gold last week, we better watch out…
2. The US Dollar broke out and started to rally posting a gain of 1% for the week. It is definitely weird to see gold move higher when the US dollar is rising…
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Gold GLD Daily Chart
Gold has been trading sideways/down since December. I see this large 5 month pullback as a bull flag and expect to see much higher prices for gold long term. But I don’t count my eggs before they hatch, so I continue to focus on the daily and intraday chart patterns for low risk trading opportunities.
Friday we saw gold close very strong for the day. It looks very much like a reversal candle but with the price trading under the mini head & shoulders neck line and with the US Dollar in rally mode again, I don’t think the stars are aligned enough for me to put money to work just yet.
Gold is currently trading in a major congestion zone. Until there is a breakout of this zone, I think setups will not be very accurate.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. NYSE New Highs Divergence – JANUARY
This chart shows the January 2010 peak in the stock market. As you can see prices became choppy with strong up and down movements before we saw the sharp drop.
Also note the NYSE new highs line. As the market became choppy new highs began to drop quickly. This indicated the market internals were weakening and led to an 8% drop over the next couple weeks.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. NYSE New Highs Divergence – MARCH
This chart in my opinion looks much the same as January. You can see the Reversal candle from the February lows and the strong rally to the current price, as of Friday.
Notice how the market is getting choppy. Also last Thursday the Dow gave us a reversal candle. But this time the reversal candle is to the down side.
Also note the NYSE New Highs line. It has dropped sharply indicating the market internals are weakening once again.
This is what trading is all about… finding things that are out of whack and waiting for a low risk setup in order to make a profit.
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Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the stock market is over bought and about to roll over. I do understand that this grind higher could last another week or so, which is why I am focusing on short/quick intraday movements like Friday’s SP500 Intraday Low Risk Setup, and not buying etf funds to hold for a few weeks. Most of you know I do not chase prices higher simply because down side risk increased when buying into an over extended rally.
I feel gold, silver and oil will move together and at this time, I don’t like their charts for trading. With any luck we could get some setups this week, but not counting anything just yet.
If you would like to receive my Real-Time Low Risk ETF Trading Signals please checkout my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-03-28 20:43:222014-03-10 09:41:35How to Find Market Tops for Gold & Dow
March 26, 2010
The market gapped higher this morning after yesterdays heavy selling. At this time the market (metals and indexes) are trading at resistance on light volume. This tells me people are a little spooked from yesterday and just do not want to buy at these lofty prices.
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Stock Market Training Education
I am trying to provide you with more insight and trading tips/education because I know many of you enjoy it. So here is something some of you may find interesting…
Over the years I have found several things which happen repeatedly in the market. I always found it interesting that in an uptrend the market/commodity or stock tends to gap lower at the open the next day. And during a down trend the market tends to gap higher at the open.
Why is this? I don’t know for sure… but my thoughts are that the smart money (big guys & professional traders) manipulate the market using futures to artificially lower prices so they can buy more the at lower prices before everyone else jumps in. It’s similar but in the reverse during a bear market. Prices gap up so they can short more shares at a higher price before everyone starts selling again pushing prices lower.
I could be way off here as this is my personal opinion but I see it happen all the time… so whether I am right or wrong in my theory the fact is this price action happens.
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Take a look at the SP500 & Dow Jones Futures Charts:
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Market Gap Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market gapped up today (not good)…
I see the dollar is now trading at a short term support level and metals are trading at resistance. So maybe something will come out of this for a short play…
I hope this short reports was of use for getting a feel of how the market moves and what I am looking for in low risk setups.
Have a great weekend everyone. I don’t see anything tradable other than this intraday low risk setup which just broke down as I write this sentence, fun stuff…
Be sure to get notified about my new day and swing trading service I am launching April 6th by entering your email address in the form below:
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I think many of you will find this article interesting as I show several different indicators which point to an imminent correction for stocks and precious metals.
Last Wednesday’s report I showed how the current price of the index was almost identical to the January peak from where prices dropped nearly 10%. The report was called “28 Day Sector Rotation, Commodity & Index”. We did get the first sign of toppy market last Friday with the sharp one day sell off as I expected.
Today, one week later we are now that much closer to a 3-8% drop which is shown in the charts below. It’s important to remember that bottoms tend to happen quickly while a market topping is more of a process which is why so many people take big losses trying tip a top.
The market will continue to move up even when it is way overbought. It’s only when extreme levels are reached that tops can try to be played.
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The Volatility Index – Measures Fear & Complacency in the Market
While the VIX is not something I follow on a daily basis it is important to keep an eye on it. When extreme low levels are reached we know the market (John Dow traders) are feeling confident and buying up everything they can get their hands on.
I like to trade with the trend but when extreme levels are reached I start looking for a low risk setup to the short side (profit in a falling market) using leveraged ETFs.
As you can see from the chart of the VIX and SP500 below, each time the VIX tested the support level the market made a top. Again the VIX is not a great timing tool but it helps me decide which trading strategy I should focus on (swing or day trading) and if I should be looking to buy or selling the market.
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NYSE New Highs-Lows Index
If a chart is worth a thousand words then this chart is worth 2000. It cannot get any simpler that the NYSE new high-low index.
The green line is the SP500 index which is straight forward. The Red line is the number of stocks on the NYSE which have reached a new high.
How strong is the market if is keeps going up while the underlying stocks are getting weaker? Something has got to give and it will most likely be to the down side.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Trend Chart
This chart adds another layer of clarity. You can see what happened last January when everyone was buying stocks thinking life is good, trading is easy. As my trading buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says “Buy when the Cry, Sell when they Yell”and that’s what I am looking to do.
Today the Russell 2000 index (small cap stocks) sold down very hard. These stocks tend to lead the market both up and down. So the red flag is up and I am just waiting for the market to show me its hand so we can catch the next big move.
Coles Notes on Chart:
• Market is over bought and in dire need of a pullback
• The length of this steady rally is much longer than a normal rally
• The rate as which prices are rising is much to steep to be maintained
• The market is trading at the parallel trend line
• VIX is tell us people are buying and not worrying about any possible drop
• NYSE divergence is screaming Overbought…
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GLD Gold Fund Trading
Gold is still in a major bull market but the recent price action from Dec up until now has been down as gold consolidates the large rally from 2009.
Looking at the chart below you can see the mini Head & Shoulders pattern. The neckline has now been broken and prices are falling. I almost had a buy signal for gold two days ago with the small move up and the candle closing above the previous days high. But because the price was still under the neckline (resistance) I decided to stand aside and live another day.
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Mid-Week Gold Newsletter Conclusion:
In short, the market looks very strong but from a technical point of view it’s about to die of exhaustion in my opinion.
Gold, silver and oil I figure will move together which is sideways or down.
I am keeping a very close eye on things hoping prices unfold in a manor which will allow us to spot a low risk setup in the coming days as I would like to catch this drop if it happen. With any luck we could make 10-15% within a couple days using a leveraged ETF.
If you would like to get my Real-Time ETF Trading Signals please check out my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Get my FREE Weekly Reports:
Chris Vermeulen
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-03-24 22:42:422014-03-10 09:42:10Sure Looks Like A Top? VIX, NYSE, DOW & GOLD
March 21, 2010
Last week was nothing special as stock market continued to drift higher on light volume and the Volatility Index (VIX) reaching a new multi year low. This mix of higher prices on light volume, multi year lows in the VIX and an overbought market paints a clear picture to a market technician – Be Ready for a Pullback!
Last Wednesday I sent out a report covering sector rotation comparing the price performance of these sectors from the January peak with last weeks price action. It was very interesting and it pointed to a sharp sell off Thursday or Friday
Last week gold gap higher then traded sideways for a few days. I will admit it was very tempting to buy into the move but I stuck with my trading strategy which is to not chase moves which gap in my direction.
Gaps are known to get filled about 70% of the time. What that means in this situation is that the price will most likely sell back down to fill that gap before trying to move higher.
All that said the problem I see now on the daily chart is the possibility of the mini Head & Shoulders pattern breaking down. If gold moves any lower then I would expect a sharp pullback. The measured move would equal a pullback to the $104 area on the GLD chart and the $1070 level for spot gold.
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SLV Silver ETF Trading Chart
The silver chart looks much different than gold’s but in reality they are trading in a similar situation. If silver moves any lower then sellers will flood the market and take the price down to the next support level. But if we get a bounce then it should surge and rally almost a $1 per ounce from this point.
Only time will tell as we let this trade unfold with a stop at $16.52.
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Natural Gas – Weekly Trading Chart
Natural gas has been selling down for almost 2 months. The chart is starting to show a possible buy point if all goes well in the next few weeks.
What I like about this chart is that we saw a break of a support level and heavy selling which tells me the general herd is getting shaken of their long positions. This extended sell off is now entering a support zone and could provide us with a low risk setup in the next 2-3 weeks.
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Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart
Oil is trading similar to gold and silver. It is trading at a key pivot point and could go either way quickly. I will be keeping my eye on the daily and 60 minute charts for a possible low risk entry point.
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Weekend Stock & Commodity Trading Conclusion:
In short, the overall market is trading at level were there is not much to we can do. Day traders are able to take advantage of this price action but not swing traders.
I feel the major indexes have another 1-2 down day left in them before a bounce, but it’s more difficult to gauge the momentum with a cool down period in the middle of it all (the weekend).
The market is on the edge of some exciting moves as I can feel something brewing. With any luck there could be some great opportunities in the coming days.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports checkout my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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March 17th 2010
Earlier this week I noticed a pattern in the market throughout an entire trading session that has inspired me to write a short piece on sector rotation.
On Tuesday March 16th, my quote screen was flashing green as sectors reached new intraday highs or 52 week highs. The interesting part was that every sector that was flashing green happened to be in sectors that strengthen at the end of a bull market cycle or strong rally. This would include basic materials, staples, services, utilities and financial.
Today I investigated the different sectors and came across some interesting numbers between the January market peak and this week’s price action as I show in the charts below.
JANUARY – ETF Sector Rotation Trading – 28 Day Cycle
I may not explain this well but try to follow me here 🙂
Just before the market rolled over and lost over 9% last January, all the proper bull market sectors were very strong during the previous 28 days. This is normal and a strong sign that market participants were bullish on the overall market.
But the market was overbought; trading volume was light indicating that not many people are willing to buy at these lofty prices. And the VIX (volatility index) had reached an extreme low (a level that has triggered large sell offs in the past). All this means one thing to me. And that is, trade with caution and tighten your protective stops.
General rule, if everyone is buying all the hot stocks at these over bought levels then you can’t help but think its time for the market to roll over and shake them all out.
MARCH – ETF Sector Rotation Trading –28 Day Cycle
The chart of March shows where the sectors have finished over the past 28 days. Notice how similar the sectors have appreciated in price…
I have overlaid John Murphy’s sector rotation image to show which sectors are strongest in a bull market.
Now the interesting part is that it appears to be the setup as in January. My quote system is flashing new highs for the bear market cycle sectors which are the one which have not performed well (Stapes, Services & Utilities) and I have to think the market is about to take a breather or do a swan dive.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying we are on the verge of a bear market. I actually think the market is strong and will trade sideways in a large range for most of this year or just continue to trend up.
What I am saying is that these sectors go in and out of favor during smaller market cycles and that can be very useful information.
Sector Rotation Explained
You can learn more about sector rotation from this detailed course How to Profit From Sector Rotation Using ETFs. This course explains how different sectors are stronger during different points within the economic cycle. The chart above shows the relationships and which of the various sectors should strengthen from the economy. The financial Market Cycle leads the Economic Cycle because traders try to anticipate the economy.
Market Update & Trading Conclusion: Stock Indexes: The market in my opinion is way over bought on the daily chart and needs a breather. Volume is light, VIX is at the same level we saw in January just before the top and the bullish sectors are firing on all pistons. You won’t catch me buying up here. Any type of pullback will most likely be sharp and there is no need to put money to work right now.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver had a nice pop this week off of a support level. I did not have a low risk setup as momentum was not on my side at the time of the pop. Also the large gap up on GLD makes me nervous as gaps tend to get filled. I am just waiting for something to unfold which looks to be a few days away still.
Oil: It has popped higher also and is trading at resistance. As I mentioned in Sundays report, if the USD dollar completes this breakdown then we will see commodities and stocks surge to higher prices and most likely post a nice multi month rally.
Natural Gas: We are seeing natural gas prices dip below support, shaking out traders who had their protective stops set just beneath the previous low. Natural gas is a silent killer as it will shake even the best traders out of the market. I feel natural gas is over sold and ready for a bounce but until I get a low risk setup I remain on the side lines.
If you would like to receive my Free Technical Trading Reports please opt-in to my free newsletter here:
Chris Vermeulen www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
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March 14, 2010
Last weeks price action unfolded just as we expected. Money poured into stocks with the focus being on small cap, banks and technology stocks. The fact that these sectors are showing strength while utilities, health care and consumer staples lag is a good sign that investors are once again taking risks in the market.
Because investors and traders are bullish on the stock market again the money flow into the safe havens like Gold and Silver decrease. I believe this is the reason stocks moved up last week while precious metals drifted lower.
Below are three charts (Dollar, Gold and Silver) showing what I think is most likely to happen in the coming week or two.
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US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The US Dollar has put in a very nice bounce/rally since the low in November 2009. Last month the dollar finally reached a key resistance level of 81. I have been talking about this major resistance level since January as the Dollar would find it difficult to break above this level.
Take a look at the daily chart below. You can see a head & shoulders pattern and a neckline which appears to have broken late Friday afternoon. There is a strong chance we could see 78 reached which is the measured move down. If we get follow through selling this week then I would expect 78 to be touched within 5-10 days.
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GLD & SLV ETF Trading Charts
Precious metals have been moving very well for us recently. From looking at the charts using technical analysis we were able to catch the Feb. 5th low and also the Feb. 25th low on a several ETF’s.
As you can see from the GLD and SLV charts, both metals are now in an uptrend showing bullish chart patterns and trading at support. If we see the US Dollar break down next week then be ready to go long gold, silver and stocks.
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Precious Metals, Stocks and the Dollar Trading Conclusion:
As a technical analyst the above charts are pointing to higher prices in the coming day’s which is exciting for us all. BUT when things are this perfect looking we must be very cautious as the market has way to suck people into setups like this and spit them out a couple days later for a nasty loss.
Understanding how the market moves is crucial for avoiding and/or minimizing losses when trades go against us. That is why I continue to wait for my signature low risk setup before putting any money to work.
My focus is to take the least amount of trades possible each year, only focusing on the best of the best setups. My low risk setups require downside risk to be under 3% for the investment of choice when the broad market shows signs of strength, as well. I use several different types of analysis to confirm if a setup has a high probability of winning and those which do are the trades I take along with my subscribers.
It is very important to wait for the market to confirm a move higher before taking a position with this type of setup. The market could go either way quickly and jumping the gun is not a safe bet.
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March 13 2010
Last week was an exciting one for intra-day traders who follow the spot gold and major stock indexes. Actually, since early November 2009 the market has been performing very well for us day traders.
As we all know the market is consistently changing its price patterns and momentum from up, sideways to down, which in turn affects everyone’s trading results for any given month.
For swing/position traders who trade using the daily charts they will find some months will favor trend trading strategies, while other months favor short term range bound strategies, and other months that just are not good for trading at all like last November and December.
During extremely choppy market conditions such as we saw last November and December, the market was up an down like a yo-yo. Swing/position traders had a tough time making money, and speaking for myself, once the market gets like that I patiently sit in cash or hold very small positions.
The good news is that when the market become choppy and swing traders are having a tough time making money (which is fast intra-day up and down movements), day traders come out of the wood work like fire ants. There are crazy amounts of money made and lost during high volume intraday trend reversals and pattern breakouts.
Day Trading Spot Gold – YG J0 Gold Mini Futures Contract
Here is a quick video I did of my trade in gold on March 9th. This video shows a trade using the 5 minute spot gold chart profiting $6.00 per ounce with minimal downside risk. Depending on what you use to trade gold – Futures Contract, ETF or CFD – you could have profited $600-$2,400 in less than 2 hours.
This is the second video I have ever done so it’s nothing fancy by any means. It will take me a few more videos to get a good understanding of them as I do plan on doing weekly videos in the coming weeks and will be sure to make them more exciting.
Day Trading the Index – DIA Exchange Traded Fund
If you watched the gold video above you will see how I day traded spot gold in the morning and why I used futures as my investment vehicle. That being said, anyone could have traded the GLD or DGP gold etfs.
Only a couple hours later I saw a great Head & Shoulders pattern on the broad market indexes. Taking a step back, my chart analysis has been telling me to look for a reversal pattern on the broad market as I feel it is over bought, and I still do…
So when I saw gold roll over then a reversal pattern on the Dow Jones Index, I decided to take a short position. Also, I noticed the price reverse down off the right shoulder.
This time, I traded the DIA etf just because it is where I saw the pattern develop first and because I have a thing for DIA (I just like trading it).
So once the price reversed down off the right shoulder with the long red candle I went short at $106.07 with a first target at $105.85 to sell half of my position, and then move my stop to break even on the balance of my position. I ended up pocketing just over 25 cents per share in gains which does not sound like much but because day traders get 4:1 and some brokers allow 10:1 leverage you can trade large amounts of shares for these quick trades.
Trading the DIA I focus on 500 or 1000 shares per trade depending on how I feel about the trade. This particular trade I did 1000 shares pocketing $250 profit within 70 minutes.
*Trading Tip*
If you see a Head & Shoulders pattern with a neckline angled up (see chart below), then you should focus on trying to short the top of the right hand shoulder (the first reversal candle). The key here is to be short before the index (or any investment) breaks the neckline.
Once a neckline is broken a large surge of sellers should rush in as everyone jumps out of their long position. Also, this is the point when aggressive traders start taking a short in order to take advantage of the breakdown and price depreciation.
So if you see a right shoulder drifting higher into resistance with that bearish looking flag, be ready to short once you see selling volume pick up and a drop in price.
Day Trading Spot Gold and the Indexes Conclusion:
Well I hope this short report helps you to take advantage of the market using different trading strategies and time frames. Every day and week is different and I jump around from trading 60 minutes charts, 4 hour, daily and the occasional 5 minute charts like the ones above.
I try to stay away from the 5 minute charts simply because they move so fast, and the shorter the time frame the smaller the potential. But some days favor it so I just take what the market gives me and that’s all we can do.
On another note, if you are interested in my new high-end trading service that trades all the setups in real-time, I will be launching this service with my personal trades and analysis for you to trade alongside me!
You will receive all my intraday and swing trade alerts for indexes and commodities allowing you to trade which ever vehicle you want – whether it’s an ETF, Leveraged ETF, Futures Contract or CFD. This way your timing is accurate, your downside risk is carefully calculated and you can trade which every investment you are comfortable with
There will be a 24/7 chat room allowing us to trade around the clock when setups arise. Also, members can swap ideas, ask me questions, make new trading buddies etc… There is even a squawk box feature! I can and will talk live with audio to everyone in the chat room for important news, trades alerts or questions.
All trade alerts are instantly posted in the members area, chat-room and sent via email making it one of the most powerful trading services I have ever seen available online.
If you are interested please fill out the form to be notified for this service which will start the last week of March or the first week of April. It will have limited availability to keep it personal.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-03-13 22:15:402010-03-13 22:15:40Video on How to Day Trade Spot Gold & the Indexes
March 13 2010
Last weeks price action unfolded just as we expected. Money poured into stocks with the focus being on small cap, banks and technology stocks. The fact that these sectors are showing strength while utilities, health care and consumer staples lag is a good sign that investors are once again taking risks in the market.
Because investors and traders are bullish on the stock market again the money flow into the safe havens like precious metals and energy has decreased. I believe this is the reason stocks moved up last week while precious metals drifted lower.
Below are weekly charts (Natural Gas, Crude Oil and the Dollar) showing what I think is most likely to happen in the next few weeks and what should fuel the fire.
Natural Gas – Weekly Chart
Natural has been out of favor for the past 3 months with most of the selling happening recently as seen on the chart. In my opinion natural gas is over sold and about ready for a bounce.
The price of NG is now trading at a key support level but until the selling momentum stops and reverses back up I would steer clear of this commodity play. Natural gas is known for taking peoples money time and time again so trade this commodity very carefully.
Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
Crude oil has been trading in a channel for several months and is now testing the upper level. If we see the US Dollar drop in the coming weeks then I expect oil to surge higher along with natural gas. If oil breaks out then I expect to see the $90 level reached within a month.
US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The US Dollar has put in a very nice bounce/rally since the low in November 2009. Last month the dollar finally reached a key resistance level of 81. I have been talking about this major resistance level since January as the Dollar would find it difficult to break above this level.
There is a strong chance we could see 78 reached which is the measured move down. If we get follow through selling next week then I would expect 78 to be reached within 1-2 weeks and over the next few months we could very well test the 2008 low of 72.50.
Natural Gas – It’s the Season
Natural gas’ seasonal price action shows that the price tends to strengthen between February and April. So with NG at support and we are in March you can guess what I’m thinking… higher prices are where the odds are pointing.
Crude Oil – It’s the Season
It’s the same story as natural gas above….
Higher prices seem to be where the best odds are.
Energy Trading Conclusion:
As a technical analyst the above charts are pointing to higher prices in the coming weeks for natural gas and crude oil, which is exciting for us all. BUT when things are this perfect looking we must be very cautious as the market has way to suck traders into these “perfect setups” and spit us out a couple days later for a nasty loss.
Understanding how the market moves is crucial for avoiding and/or minimizing losses when trades go against us. That is why I continue to wait for my signature low risk setup before putting any money to work.
My focus is to take the least amount of trades possible each year, only focusing on the best of the best setups. My low risk setups require risk downside risk to be under 3% for the investment of choice. and the broad market needs to be showing signs of strength as well. I use several different types of analysis to confirm if a setup has a high probability of winning and those which do are the trades I take along with my subscribers.
It is very important to wait for the market to confirm a move higher before taking a position when there is this type of setup. The market could go either way quickly and jumping the gun is not a safe bet.
If you would like to receive my Free energy Trading Reports fill out the form below:
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2010-03-13 21:59:112014-03-10 09:43:45Are Crude Oil & Natural Gas about to Explode?
