,

After This Holiday Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away

This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.

We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold using a single asset revesting method.

Let’s dive in.

We’re told that “quitters never win.” But is it always wise to stick with something when it no longer serves us or, worse, continues to harm us?

Many years ago, when Texas hold’em poker was big and online gambling was allowed in Canada, I used to run a poker league and build custom poker tables for people across the United States and Canada. I love poker, and I still play it to this very day, but the game does require skill, a proper mindset, and self-discipline. Without all three of these things, poker is pure gambling. It’s the same when it comes to active trading or investing if you lack the skills, mindset, and self-discipline.

Retired professional poker player Annie Duke, who is also a best-selling author, and decision strategist who advises seed-stage Startups, says that learning when to quit is a critical skill, especially for investors.

Annie states, “Quitting is a good thing when applied at the right time.”

If you’ve been following me for any time, then you know I follow a detailed trading strategy with position and risk management rules. As a result, you won’t find me taking random trades or trading based on emotions. Instead, you’ll find me patiently waiting on the sidelines for a high-probability trade signal to reinvest my capital.

I trade differently. I don’t diversify. I don’t buy-and-hope, and I don’t have any positions at certain times.

What I do is reinvest in assets that are rising in value. And when a particular asset stops moving higher, I give up on the position and exit it immediately. Because I use technical analysis to follow price action, we can quickly and easily determine if an asset is rising or falling. Therefore, I can step aside and let the asset fall and look for a new opportunity that is rising, or hold the falling position and ride it lower for who knows how long…

Unfortunately, most traders and investors do not understand how to read the markets, or they don’t have control of their money. They are at the mercy of what the market does or the skills of whoever controls their capital.

Let me share some of my market insight
and help guide you

On October 21st, I stated that retirement accounts should bottom and rally into the end of the year. Bonds were hitting 11-year lows. In short, anyone holding 20+ year treasury bonds just had more than ten years of investment growth wiped out.

Bonds, the highly touted safe, low-risk asset, fell over 47% from the 2020 high. It caused similar losses to the average investor portfolio comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.

It was the worst selloff ever for treasury bonds that I can see on my charting platform. The real kicker is that the selloff in both stocks and bonds could have been avoided with just a little education and management. Subscribers and I happened to ride the COVID bond rally higher by 19%, exited the position, and moved to cash the day bond prices topped. It was partly luck to exit at the peak, but we would have exited the following trading session if we didn’t lock in profits because we managed our positions and risk. As the price reversed direction, we jumped shipped to one of my favorite positions, which almost no one thinks about or uses – CASH.

2022 has been a painful year for investors, and people are telling me they are scared to look at their investment statements. It now looks like bonds and stocks have started a seasonal rally that could help lift your portfolio as we head into the end of the year, but once it ends, look out!

Bonds and Stock Seasonality Price Movement

Daily Chart of 60/40 Portfolio

You should have seen your account rally 6% or more since Oct 21st, and I think it will continue higher once the market digests the recent move up. While this may excite you, be aware that after this rally, we could see another 20-47% decline in stocks and bonds in 2023. This year-end bounce is nothing more than an opportunity to get out of the antiquated Buy-and-Hope strategy that does not work during a volatile and weakening economic environment.

The next few charts, which are big heavyweight stocks that drive the market higher and pull it lower, should help you see what I see.

AAPL Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown

Apple is a heavyweight stock. When it moves, it moves the stock market. Currently, AAPL shares are in what I call a STAGE 3 Distribution phase, and if support is broken, then look out below!

TSLA Weekly Chart and Potential Breakdown

Tesla shares are another heavyweight, and its weekly chart paints a bleak future for holders.

META (Facebook) Weekly Chart Breakdown Leads The Way Down

Facebook, or what is now called META, is a heavyweight stock that has already broken down from its STAGE 3 Distribution phase. As you can see, when these mega stocks break down and unwind, individual investors who have their money managed by so-called professionals who don’t know how to manage risk suffer the most.

The drop in META shares has held the tech, social, and even the S&P 500, and Nasdaq from rallying freely to the upside in the past month. When/if AAPL, TSLA, and other heavyweights break down, expect panic on Wall Street.

My general rule of thumb is if someone tells you to diversify into a bunch of different assets, stocks, commodities, bonds, crypto, etc… then they don’t know what they are doing. They are a buy-and-hold believer and willing to let their own money or that of their clients experience the severe price swings the market dishes out.

Billionaire investor warren Buffet says, “Diversification makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing.”

Multimillionaire investor Jim Rogers said, “Diversification is something that stockbrokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, and that you can go broke diversifying.”

The Four Stages Of Asset Prices

If you think the 2022 pullback has been distressing, you better buckle up because the bear market has not even technically started yet, from my standard. Instead, in early 2023 we should enter a STAGE 4 Decline. This is when people’s financial future and retirement lifestyles are created or broken, depending on how it’s managed.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the market will fall in 2023. I’m letting you know it’s very possible, and you best have a plan in place. On the other hand, if the markets have some miraculous recovery and start a new bull market, well, you better have a plan for that also. Either way, you need a plan, and if you are a technical trader who follows price and manages positions, it doesn’t matter what the market does; we are set either way.

If you want to learn more about who you are at a deeper level and what you specifically need to make your personality work best with your trading and investing be sure you read this and do the mini quiz on your trading personality type.

S&P 500 Bear Market Expectations 2023

The S&P 500 chart shows the extreme low that we could possibly reach if the economy and stock market fully unwind. Bonds would sell off as well until the Fed decides to step in and starts lowering the rates to try and save investors, but there will be a delay, and bonds will likely fall sharply before we see that take effect.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, without going off too much on a rant, you can read the three lies we are told by financial professionals that really IRK me. Because of these lies, individual investors must work harder, work longer and often experience painful financial outcomes.

What you may not know is that what you went through in 2008, the 2020 crash, and this year’s correction could have been completely avoided. If you followed a NO BS investing method that tracks price using technical analysis, is simple to follow, and is uber-conservative, then your account would be sitting at a new all-time high watermark as of this week.

The financial industry tells us to do all the wrong things, and almost everyone falls for the BS; it’s so frustrating to watch!

LIE #1: Diversify, Diversify, Diversify

LIE #2: Bonds Are A Safe Investment And Should Represent A Large Portion Of An Investors Portfolio

LIE #3: Speak With An investment Broker Or Advisor Before Placing Any Trade To Be Sure It Is Suitable For Your Personal Circumstances.

It’s total baloney because almost everyone gets the same generic advice, buy-and-hold stocks and bonds, don’t give up on it, ride out the rollercoaster, and you will be fine, trust me…

Who came up with that strategy? Sure, my 10-year-old son could buy some stocks and bonds once, let it ride for 20-30 years, and be ok. He has time and not that much money, but the big question is at what age does the stock and bond, buy-and-hope strategy become a harmful and risky investment strategy? 50-ish years of age is my thinking.

Knowing bear markets can take 3-12 years to recover from, someone who is 50+, planning to retire soon, or is already retired, doesn’t have 10+ years to keep working and saving to avoid withdrawing funds from their retirement account. Also, the fact that they have the most wealth ever in their lifetime, they should be concerned about holding through future bear markets.

Don’t be fooled. Just because everyone else has been brainwashed to buy-and-hold, aka buy-and-hope, and suffers stock market selloffs does not mean you should…

It’s like the average investor has Stockholm syndrome. They have all been beaten up by the markets over and over again. They think that’s how it should be. And in some cases are paying someone to take their money, plop it into the market, and do nothing with it for 10 – 40 years. They pay a % of their life savings each year to someone who has no risk and does not need to do too much of anything, while the investor suffers massive multi-year drawdowns, experiences high levels of stress, and sometimes big losses.

The typical investing experience most people endure is NOT how it should be. There is a better way, and I can show you.

My passion is trading and investing, having been at it for over 25 years. My goal is to help as many investors as possible to preserve their capital during difficult times and also be able to grow their wealth by trading only the most liquid ETFs. My asset revesting signals allow individuals to only hold assets that are rising in value.

Asset Revesting strategy for Wealth Manager involved moving assets between options based on market signals and that assets would be more protected against devaluation with market downturns.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Disclaimer: This email and any information contained herein should not be considered investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its staff are not registered investment advisors. Under no circumstances should any content from websites, articles, videos, seminars, books or emails from Technical Traders Ltd. or its affiliates be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity contract. Our advice is not tailored to the needs of any subscriber so talk with your investment advisor before making trading decisions. Invest at your own risk. I may or may not have positions in any security mentioned at any time and maybe buy sell or hold said security at any time.

,

How To Build Wealth Using ETFs Without Knowing How to Trade

Let’s kickstart things and conduct a quick thought experiment, shall we?

Who is wealthier?

Someone who works eighty hours per week and earns $450,000 per year,

or…

Someone who works 20 hours per week and earns $250,000 per year?

Insert the Jeopardy theme song here…!

There is no right or wrong answer because multiple strong cases can be made for both.

If we break things down into absolute terms, the person earning $450,000 has more money. However, the person making $250,000 is more productive per hour and has a lot more available time once the workday is done.

Your choice speaks volumes about who you are as a person, your mindset, and the life stage you are currently experiencing. I encourage you to ponder WHY you chose the answer you did.

For example…

You may be in a mid-life phase, the prime of your income-earning days. You are working hard every day to build your passion business as big as you can. You want to build wealth while the going’s good and while you have the energy to do so. One day you plan to slow down.

Maybe you are a more balanced lifestyle person and would instead choose to make less money, work fewer hours, and enjoy hobbies or adventures outside of work with family, friends, etc. To you, wealth is more about living, not working.

Again, there is no right or wrong answer. We are all in the position you are in and must do what works best for our own situation and investment personality.

Ok, let’s try another thought experiment…

This time, we’ll assume that your investment dividends and interest income pay your lifestyle expenses. Therefore, your income is separated from your time because your bills and activities will get paid even if you do zero work.

Does that seem like a wealthy person and lifestyle to you?

If so, then you likely have an intuitive understanding that wealth is a by-product of assets operating independently of your time. Take a moment to think about that…

Wealth is a by-product of assets operating
independently of your time.

Does this thought provide you the idea of freedom to do the things that excite you, make the hairs stand up on the back of your neck, and allow you to spend more time with those you love?!

It certainly does for me.

With some of my spare time, I give a helping hand to those who are not as fortunate through local charities and fundraisers. I started the 100MenWhoCare group in our town, where we focus on raising $10,000 in 60 minutes with 100 men who donate $100 each.

My daughter Mirabelle and I are part of the BrainFreeze Challenge, where our team is taking the plunge into ice-cold Canadian waters to support Mental Health for Youth programs. Did you know that suicide is the #1 cause of death for young people? I didn’t and was both shocked and saddened by that statistic. Shameless plug alert – I would love it if you helped us support the cause!

I also am an avid inventor who designed and created the world’s first flying jet surfboard – VeFoil!

How do I have time for all of this?

Because my brain thinks and works differently than almost every other trader and investor, maybe even person, I know.

Start making your capital work for you,
and then you can help others.

My life’s work is helping individual investors and financial advisors become wealthier. I help them make more money with less effort and less risk by only holding assets rising in value. When that particular asset trend ends, we reinvest our capital into a different asset that has started a new uptrend.

This asset revesting strategy allows investors to sidestep and even profit during falling stock and bond prices without taking any additional risks. In fact, it can reduce portfolio risk and volatility if you are committed to the revesting process.

What I do is very different from the old Buy-And-Hope investment strategy of the past. You know, the one we all grew up with. The strategy pounded into us as soon as we learned what money was and trumpeted by virtually all investment advice you could find. Only now, instead of the ‘big-money’ we were all but promised, we get to watch as most portfolios take an ugly swan dive and will likely end with a painful bellyflop.

No. Just NO. It does not need to be this way and certainly isn’t in my world.

What I do is the complete opposite. No Diversification, No Buy-and-Hold, No Positions at times, plus I manage positions to control risk and profits. These are things you likely don’t do, and a way of investing you won’t find any advisor doing unless they happen to be one of my clients.

I do this by helping enlightened financial advisors and individual investors embrace the idea that by using technical analysis we are able to follow price trends very closely to know when one trend has ended and a new one has started. I only invest in the most liquid assets (stock indexes, bonds, US Dollar index). I also embrace the use of systems that operate without our time and energy, which continue to work for us whether we are sleeping, playing, or on vacation.

To bring this full circle, this happens the same way that dividends will arrive and be deposited into your brokerage account no matter what you may be doing elsewhere.

Ways income can be automatically generated
with this new way of investing

They are:

  • Dividend payments from index ETFs
  • Bond ETF interest payments
  • Share lending interest income
  • Portfolio growth through revesting trades (we locked in a 5% gain yesterday in SPY)

Now, if you don’t know anything about trading or investing, that’s fine.

And if you value your time and don’t want to think about managing your investments, that’s not a problem either.

I’m all about being as efficient as possible and not having to do anything that can be done for me.

This leads to having an ETF trading strategy executed automatically in your brokerage account. I believe human error is the reason why most traders fail to make consistent money. People’s emotions, lack of self-discipline, missing trades, incorrect trade order execution, etc., all lead to investing underperformance.

For these reasons, I offer autotrading of my primary strategy at no cost. I know it’s the best option for individuals to build wealth on autopilot with less risk and less stress. And I am all for a world where we can spend more time and energy with the people, events, passions, etc., that cause our cup to runneth over.

The bottom line…

Using a multi asset revesting strategy to make your capital work for you while you are boating, golfing, working, sleeping, or traveling is like having another profitable business making you money…only without the headaches.

I explain exactly how this process works below if you want to learn more.

[embedded content]

If you have any questions, I’m always here to answer your questions!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Investment Officer
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

,

Hi Ho Silver!  Different Ways To Get In On The Action

Precious metal prices – gold, silver – and related miners have been bearish for quite some time now.  It looks like that is starting to change.

When I look at the charts for gold and silver, I see similar periods of consolidation with multiple tests of support.  But even more interesting is the recent upturn in price and moving averages with some new higher highs.  That makes me interested but tentatively bullish on the metals.

There are many ways to participate in this sector.  There is, of course, physical metal – bullion or numismatics.  I’ve always liked the idea of having some physical metal that I can put my hands on.  And there are many secure storage options as well.

The metals sector has several popular ETFs – GLD, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, SILJ, etc.  One approach would be to simply buy shares in whichever one is the Best Asset Now (BAN) one or more of these ETFs.  That’s as easy as buying shares of stock.  But, like owning stock, gains may be slow to come as we participate in the price action tick for tick.

Gold Daily Chart

Silver Daily Chart

As an options trader, I like to give myself a little room to be wrong on price and reduce my cost basis by selling option premiums.  There are two basic ways to do that.  I can buy shares and sell “covered calls” against those shares.  Or I can sell puts, essentially committing to buy shares at the strike price in return for receiving an option premium.  The profit and loss graph for selling a put is the same as for selling a covered call.

I prefer the “selling puts” strategy for its simplicity and relative ease of rolling out in time and up in strike price when there is an uptrend in the underlying shares.   I don’t own any shares with this strategy.  I’m just committing to buy shares at a certain price for a certain time period and getting paid to do that.  So, it’s important to only sell puts for the number of shares I’m willing to own at the strike price sold.

Selling Puts For Consistent Income

While the option selling strategies presented here can work on any stock or ETF that has options, they work best with relatively lower-priced products that are under about $25.  A commodity ETF such as SLV – currently trading around $20 a share — is a good candidate.  SILJ at around $10.50 a share also looks good.

If we sell puts, we may have shares “put” to us at some point and will then own the shares at the strike price we sold minus the premiums collected.  Having shares put to us at a reduced-cost basis is part of the plan.  When we sell an out-of-the-money (OTM) put, we’re methodically nudging the statistics in our favor by “buying low” when there is a pull-back in the underlying.  We can alternately think of selling a put as a standing limit order to buy shares with the limit price equal to the strike price we sold.

If we have shares “put” to us, we can then sell calls against the shares we now own.  And the cost basis of the shares we purchased will have been reduced by the cumulative option premium collected by selling puts.

Trade Management

Writing puts and covered calls are relatively low-maintenance strategies that don’t have to be watched continuously.  Once we write options, we do have to be patient and let time decay in the options we sold work for us.

If the options we sold expire worthless, we can sell new options for some future expiration cycle and collect more premium.

If our sold options are in-the-money (ITM) as expiration approaches, we can defer an assignment by rolling out for additional credit.   In that case, we would buy back the option close to expiration and sell another one further out in time.  We can usually do this for an additional credit because we are selling more time value.

Want your investing done for you on autopilot? Get autotraded asset revesting signals executed in your brokerage account.

Upside and Downside Risks

As with any strategy, it’s important to ask and understand “What could possibly go wrong?” before getting involved.   Selling puts and writing covered calls are neutral to bullish strategies.   There can be sustained down trends, price shocks, and changes in volatility that can affect strategy performance.

There’s always a tradeoff when selling options.  In exchange for collecting option premium, profit is limited to the amount of premium collected plus any appreciation in shares up to the strike price in the case of covered calls.  We may not have a great opportunity to sell option premium in every possible cycle.

Keeping probability in our favor and letting time decay work for us are benefits of selling a put or covered call.   As option sellers, we don’t need large up moves to make a profit.   We have the statistical odds in our favor and option time decay working for us.  The underlying share price can go up, sideways, or even down a bit, and we can still profit.

What To Learn More About Options Trading?

Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. Brian, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. If ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Enjoy your day!

Brian Benson
Co-Author: Chris Vermeulen
Chief Options Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Disclaimer: This email and any information contained herein should not be considered investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its staff are not registered investment advisors. Under no circumstances should any content from websites, articles, videos, seminars, books or emails from Technical Traders Ltd. or its affiliates be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity contract. Our advice is not tailored to the needs of any subscriber so talk with your investment advisor before making trading decisions. Invest at your own risk. I may or may not have positions in any security mentioned at any time and maybe buy sell or hold said security at any time.

,

BrainFreeze Challenge – Polar Plunge!

TheTechnicalTraders team, plus hundreds of others, are leading the charge in awareness and fundraising to help reduce youth suicide and would love your support. The BrainFreeze challenge we will be filming is Nov 26th so time is ticking for us to reach our goal to help as many kids as possible.


Photo: Chris, Val, Elizabeth, Ashley

I’ve been trying to find a new way to help others in need of support for a long time, and until a couple of days ago, I didn’t know what to do, but I know now!!!

I’m Freezin’ for a Reason!
I have decided to take the plunge for youth mental health in the BrainFreeze Challenge on November 26th in the icy great-lakes of Canada – Eh!

I believe in helping others whenever we can, and the cause of supporting Youth Mental Health is to make sure that one day soon, suicide will no longer be the leading cause of death for young people.

Now, if you know anything about me, you’ll know that when I feel that zing of energy or an idea, I go full tilt….and boy, did I feel that zing and get inspired from the dip!

Because I am a huge fan of extreme weather hot tubbing, and I have a rather large 10-person inground spa at my house, I decided to create 
TheTechnicalTraders Hot Tub Team.

Check Out TheTechnicalTraders Team Page:
https://jack.akaraisin.com/ui/brainfreeze2022/t/ttt

On the weekend, I was inspired by two friends (Val and Elizabeth) to do the Brainfreeze challenge after Elizabeth challenged me to a polar dip at my house to see who could stay fully submersed up to our shoulders in the lake. Elizabeth is the queen of cold water, but I took her up on the bet…

Ten minutes later, after floating in the cold lake, she asked if we could both get out together, so we did, and it was a tie. But I technically did wait a split second to let her stand first before I did… but I’m not competitive 🙂

Anyways, Brainfreeze is a yearly fundraising event created by the teams at Jack.org and Surf The Greats. Its mission is to raise money for youth mental health programs, to inspire youth to become advocates for change, and to support youth in their quest to be authentic and brave in their journey to adulthood.

Anyways, the team and I would love for you to join us in the experience. Our goal is to raise $10,000 or more. Donors will receive a video of us all taking the plunge. The team and I are starting to raise funds, and donations on our personal pages all go towards TheTechnicalTraders Team Total. Keep in mind this is Canadian Currency, so $1 CAD is only 73 cents USD.

Water You Waiting For?

Supporting Youth Mental Health is to make sure that one day soon, suicide will no longer be the leading cause of death for young people. Help The Technical Traders Team Make A Difference – Click Here

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Investment Officer
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

P.S. I know some of you have donated in the past to support the “100 Men Who Care” charity fundraiser I started with a few other guys. We recently supported a homeless shelter for kids with over $8000 in our one-hour gathering and group zoom event. A big thank you for your support. I know that many of you have your own charities/fundraisers/etc you donate to that are important to you. Let’s just keep helping the world one cause at a time, and together we will make a difference.

Disclaimer: This email and any information contained herein should not be considered investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its staff are not registered, investment advisors. Under no circumstances should any content from websites, articles, videos, seminars, books or emails from Technical Traders Ltd. or its affiliates be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity contract. Our advice is not tailored to the needs of any subscriber so talk with your investment advisor before making trading decisions. Invest at your own risk. I may or may not have positions in any security mentioned at any time and maybe buy, sell or hold said security at any time.

The Die Is Cast

Since the October rally ended, the SPX formed what looked like an “extended distribution phase” in the form of a rounding top. This is even more apparent on the Dow Jones Composite Index.  Early June, it dropped below its 100-DMA, it slightly breached its December low, but rallied. A second attempt was made to break through which also failed. The rallies found resistance at the 100 MA and last week, a third attempt at breaking the bottom trend line also failed … or did it?

With Greece’s default the Dow Jones index is completing its rounding top/descending triangle pattern by finally making a new low. A Monday morning opening gap to the downside could be the perfect way to end this formation. If so, this could be the beginning of the correction which has long been expected.

 

Current Position of the Market 

SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market

Intermediate trend – Waiting for confirmation that the ending diagonal is complete.

Short trend – Neutral

 

Greece’s decision to hold a referendum on July 5 and not to accept the final offer made by its creditors resulted in a Greek debt default and is currently unsettling to markets. Should that be the case, SPX should follow suit by extending last week’s decline.

This could be the end of the 7-year cycle we talked about, closing its grip on the market by applying pressure which is increasing gradually every week.

USA markets will be closed on July 3. It will therefore be a shortened holiday week of trading.  My current concern now is whether or not World equity markets will resume a 10% correction down or more.  This period of a cycle that we work with has a very high historical correlation to 10% or greater reversals in the DJIA.  The question is whether that decline has already started.

We defer to our models for the confirmation of this move and any other future moves.

Gold fell to a low of 1167.10 on Friday, June 26. . This may be important because Silver fell to a low of 15.45 on Friday, June 26, well below its low of the past three months.

Something big may be in the works.  It is ironic that the Greek debt default, the lack of a conclusion of the USA/Iran negotiations and The Supreme Court’s decision to uphold Obamacare subsidies of The Affordable Care Act are ALL historical events occurring at the same point in time is not a random act.

This decision upholding the IRS rule giving all Americans access to premium tax credits, millions of Americans can breathe easier today knowing that there is access to health care.

I believe that The Supreme Court validated President Obama’s massive power grab, allowing him to tax, borrow, and spend $700 billion that no Congress ever authorized. This establishes a precedent that could let any president modify, amend, or suspend any enacted law at his or her whim.  President Obama has already creative secret deals that Americans are not yet aware of.  I fear that these unchecked political power in the Executive branch will be misused again and again by the President.

At this time, we are currently experiencing a new “socio-politically-economic” revolution.  The passing of this Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare will continue to bankrupt the county and many of the people in it.  It is only affordable for some in terms of lower premiums. The other side of the coin is that deductibles are so high that many still cannot afford health care under this Act. For them, it is anything but affordable.

The yield on the benchmark 10 year note closed last week at 2.26%.  This week’s close was 23 bps higher at 2.49%.  The 30 year bond yield closed the week at it 2015 high of 3.25%.  Current financial market conditions with low levels of interest rates have resulted in negative yields for some Treasury securities trading in the secondary market.  Negative yields for Treasury securities most often reflect technical factors in the Treasury markets related to cash and repurchase agreements markets and are at times unrelated to the time value of money.

We had a confirmed signal to exit the ETF “TLT” on June 3, 2015 at 118.39.  Today, its current prices 115.23, I am expecting this price to go lower.

Learn What Is Happening and Profit: Global Financial Reset Alerts

 

Chris Vermeulen

China Resets The Currency Markets

The Chinese central bank is backing its Yuan with GOLD. This may set the Yuan as a “New Reserve Currency.”

If this happens, a new order in global currencies will appear. This would attract new foreign capital.  The rest of the world will view the Yuan as a real currency rather than a fiat currency. Creating the Yuan with a gold standard will surely make China more powerful and become a more influential world power.

The United States Dollar will no longer be the only “Reserve Currency” in the World anymore.

China will most likely become the world’s largest economy catapulting over the United States. They already have close ties to the world’s largest energy nation (Russia), and consumer based BRICS (acronym for the combined economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). It is only a matter of time before a large portion of the world systematically rejects the Dollar.

 

The world will seek stability in a much different type of financial construct. The BRICS nations have already started making alternatives to the World Bank, IMF, and the SWIFT system. We will be facing a hard choice: Either remain steadfast to the old regime or shift to the “New Paradigm.” In shifting to the “New Paradigm”, we will set up the Yuan as the next global reserve currency.

Russia and China are in the works to create a new alternative to the long-standing SWIFT system. SWIFT stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. It is a messaging network. Financial institutions use it to securely transmit information and instructions with a standardized system of codes.

An alternative to SWIFT could end the US Dollar as the sole reserve currency in the global financial system. The Russians would then turn away from the SWIFT system and have a new alternative. They would thus avoid any serious economic sanctions now or in the future.

Russia is expected to join forces with China and create their own “Union Pay”. The People’s Bank of China started “Union Pay” in 2002. It is now the second-largest payment networking system behind Visa. Union Pay is now preparing for a full-scale collaboration with Russia.

RELATED: If You Have Money in a US Bank Account Be Aware!

It has developed the foundation needed to be very successful in this venture.  This would replace the SWIFT system. Then Russia and China could avoid any interference by a Western superpower imposing economic sanctions on them. To this end, they have decided to end the Dollar as the global reserve currency.

They are now creating another choice everyone can pick and use as they like. I would call this a “Game Changer”. There will be two reserve currencies as Petro-Yuan joins Petro-Dollar.

 

Learn more and trade these global trend changes with us: Global Financial Reset Wealth System

Chris Vermeulen

 

gfrws2

 

In Three to Five Years Gold Will Be Priceless

Over the next few years as debt, currencies and countries start to fall apart individuals will be looking to place their money where it will hold its value and buying power during times of extreme uncertainty.

If you eliminate fiat currencies which are created out of this air and are nothing more than a credit we are left with precious metals and stones. As much as we have evolved over time, we could be valuing things like gold, silver, platinum, and precious stones more so than our currency.

Let’s face it, currencies are swinging in value 20-50% regularly and while most people do not realize it their buying power often is not as strong as it was. Would you rather hold a large portion of your capital in say the EURO which is falling like a rock in value costing you thousands of dollars a month, or would gold and silver which rises in value as your currency falls be a smarter decision?

Do not get me wrong, I am not trying to be a doom and gloom analyst. And I hope to be wrong, but with so many things pointing to an extreme global change it only makes sense to add some protection in the event something drastic does happen. My new book explains how to protect your capital in detail.

With the average fiat reserve currency since 1400 lasting between 80-105 years. With the dollar becoming the reserve currency in 1920 the odds point to the dollar being dropped within 3-5 years.

currency life

Gold Price Chart & Long Term Bullish Patterns

gold-halfway

 

Review Of the 1970-80’s Gold & Bubble

The chart below shows the price of gold, silver, the typical price bubble, and phased of the market which happens in all asset types at some point in their life cycle.

The red line shows the average market participants emotional state. Yellow line is the price of gold, and the grey line in silver.

1980bubbleSource: SRS RoccoReport & GoldChartsrus.com

 

Current Gold & Silver Bubble – Priceless

The last bull market in precious metals will be dwarfed by the next one which I expect to start later this year. Over the next 3-5 years currencies, metals, stock market, new policies in the USA, etc… are likely to change more than we ever thought possible.

2015-we-r-here

Source: SRS RoccoReport & GoldChartsrus.com

Priceless Gold Conclusion:

What does all this mean? It means money is going to move out of dying currencies and into physical assets like gold, and silver.

There are three different forecasting models for gold I have created. Depending how things play out in the next couple years the low target is $5,000 oz, and highest is $12,000 oz.

Starting to accumulate physical gold and silver as a long term investment and as insurance for your portfolio is critical. Small denominations are best because when prices sky rocket it will be tough to sell/trade a $12,000 oz gold bar compared to a gram of gold that will be worth $450, or better yet an ounce of silver worth $150.

With that said my key focus is on trading for income and growth through the use of exchange traded funds. And if precious metals are about to start another bull market there will be big gains in gold stocks which I will be trading.

Learn to trade, and get my trades live: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS – Part III – OIL

Protecting Yourself with Gold, OIL and Index ETF’s

Chris-VIn 2009 I shared my big picture analysis, investment forecast and strategy in a book called “NEW WORLD ORDER ECONOMICS – What you can do to protect yourself”.  In January 2009 I forecasted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was going to make a bottom within a couple months which it did. I also predicted the price of gold to start another major rally, and for crude oil to bottom and rally for years, which were also correct.

You can call it luck, skill or a mix of both… but the truth is that the markets cannot be predicted with 100% certainty. With that said, the US stock market, gold and oil look to be setting up for their NEXT BIG multiyear moves.

 

THE OIL BEAR MARKET IS ABOUT TO END

Crude oil and energy stocks are tricky to navigate in a situation like this where the equities market is nearing a bull market top.

It is critical to remember that when the US stock market turns down and starts a bear market virtually all stocks and commodities will fall in value including oil and energy stocks. Investors need to understand that even though the price of crude oil is nearing a bottom it could and will likely stay low for a considerable amount of time “IF” the stock market turns down.

Over the last 100 years we have seen nearly 30 bear markets. The average length of a bear market is 18 months and has an average decline of 30%.

I do feel currency problems and a war breakout will be bullish for both oil and gold. So if we get a bear market in equities, and a war oil and oil should rally while stocks in general fall.

But if we do not have those sever crisis’ then if gold and oil break below their critical support level which is the red line on the charts and a bear market in stocks start you do not want to be long stocks or commodities.

 

PRICE CHART OF OIL

The chart below shows the line in the sand for the price of crude oil. If this level is broken with a monthly bar close below $43 per/barrel I think $30-$33 will be the next stop and the low for the oil market. It seems everyone is bullish on precious metals and have been buying like crazy.

The points I made about gold which I talked about in PART II should be reread because if the support levels are broken oil will fall 40%, and gold another 35% from their current prices.

oilchart2

Below are some ETFs that takes advantage of rising oil prices. While there are other funds that cover oil stocks I feel they may not perform well during the equities bear market. Investing in physical oil is the best play at this stage of the game but when the equities bear market looks to be nearing an end, energy stocks will be the best place to invest.

oilETF

PART 3 CONCLUSION:

In short, I feel crude oil will has or will find a bottom within the next couple months. Long term the value is great, but we must be aware that if equities start a bear market it will be best close all equity positions and wait for the bear market to subside. When the time is right investing in crude oil and energy stocks which pay high dividends will generate life changing gains and an income stream. Patience is the key.

I hope you enjoyed this three part series which covers how to invest in indexes, gold and oil.

Join My Free Newsletter and Receive More Trading and Investment Ideas: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Investors Are About To Having A COW!

The past year month has been flowing into risk on assets like US equities. And when money is flowing into one investment class there is typically an outflow in others. Commodities in general have been beaten up bad but there is some money to be made here using the livestock COW ETF.

I is amazing how almost all us equity sectors have rallied as big as they have with many still making new sector highs. The only true weak areas in the market look to be commodities specifically precious metals, oil, natural gas, grains, sugar and livestock.

When the US equities market starts to sell off and volatility rises money should start to flow into some of these underperforming areas. At the moment COW is the only one that looks ready for a bear market rally currently.

Precious metals miners are another area I am looking to trade but I have not seen any signs why anyone should enter yet.

The chart below shows my analysis and forecast going forward. Those who prefer trading spot gold via FOREX/CDF/Spread Betting and aren’t a U.S. resident like me can use a company like AVAFX. The nice thing about trading this way is that you can trade 24/7, you get a lot of leverage, and it’s commission-free trading.
cow

To Have A Cow Or Not? That Is The Question!

The COW ETF could be a choppy ride for a while, but the upward momentum looks to have started as of today.

I am currently long COW with my peak target set around the $29 level.
Follow all my trades in real time at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

, , , , , ,

Money Will Rotate Into These Dead Investments

Seasoned investors understand that investments which are rocketing to new highs and all over the news will eventually fall out of favor and become a the poor performer, unwanted by market participants.

So it only makes sense that the underperforming investments will some day come back to life and provide opportunity once again. I covered this unique stage analysis in great detail in another report linked below.

If you want to see my forecast and charts I did on June 26th, 2013 pointing to the key investment levels for precious metals and miners which by the way have been dead READ HERE.

Current Stock Market & Commodity Investment Analysis

Two of the weakest investments have been commodities and precious metals since 2011. The Canadian stock market is heavily weighted with these resource stocks and is the reason for its under performance when compared to the SP500.

The time will come when commodities bottom and this will send the Canadian stock market back to the 2014 highs or better.

Take a look at the chart below. You will see the SP500, gold miner index, Canadian market, and the commodity index. What you notice see is that the US stock market has been the hot investment of choice, while commodities and precious metals have been falling for years.

No one is excited about investing in commodities or precious metals, and it makes sense. Anyone holding these investments has had a terrible couple of years and lost most of their capital. The last thing they want to do is buy more.

The good news is that this mind set eventually creates huge opportunities for the savvy, patient, investor like you and I. The hardest part is waiting for the psychology of investors to be completely out of favor, and only then can an investment bottom. This often takes years, and it has been for resources.

Gold Trading Newsletter

The 2007-2008 Resource Double Top and Drop & Gold Forecast

Bull market tops take months 6-12 months to form before price truly rolls over and starts a bear market. Most traders and investor try to pick tops but because this process is so painfully long, most get shaken out or give up well before the top has completed it’s topping phase.

What I am interested in is the Canadian index and resource type plays. The US stock market looks and feels as though it’s trying to form a topping phase but it is at best 6-12 months away from being a confirmed bear market.

Until then, I feel the US stock market will struggle and the focus should be put on investments that come to life during this stage of the stock market and economic life cycle.

Precious Metals Trading Newsletter

The Dead Always Come Back To Life for One More Rally

In short, I feel resources and the Canadian stock market will become strong areas of the market going forward several months. There are a few ways to play this, and timing will be crucial. My gold forecast I gave to subscribers today for short term trading looks like it could be a 25% mover.

You can follow my coattails as I trade at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen