Financial ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target

The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) may have frightened some traders. My research, however, suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60 – a more than +11% move. The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations powerfully into the first quarter of 2022. Unless something big breaks this market trend, traders should continue to expect a “melt-up” bullish price trend through at least early January 2022.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

The Financial Sector continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue data each quarter. The way consumers and assets prices have reacted after the COVID market collapse says quite a bit about the ability of financial firms to generate future profits. Financial firms are actively engaged in financial services, traditional banking, real estate and other investments, and corporate financing. The rising inflation trends and consumer spending activities suggest the US economy is still rallying after the COVID stimulus and recovery.

Financial ETF Sector May Rally 10% to 15%, or more, by January 2022

My analysis of Financial Sector XLF suggests this recent pullback in price may stall and start a new bullish price rally targeting the $43.60 level – a full 100% Fibonacci Price Extension of the last rally in XLF.

This Daily XLF chart shows the extended rally in early 2021 and the brief pause in the price rally between June 2021 and early September 2021. Now that we’ve entered Q4:2021 and the US economy appears to be strengthening in the post-COVID recovery, I expect that most sectors, and the US major indexes, will rally throughout the end of 2021 and into early 2022.

This recent pullback in XLF sets up a solid buying opportunity for traders targeting a +10% rally that may last well into January/February 2022 – or longer.

Financial ETF Sector

Longer-term Financial Trends Suggest Another Rally Above $44 May Start Soon

Over the past 6+ months, moderate rally phases in XLF have shown a range of about $4.00 to $4.50. I’ve highlighted two recent rally phases in XLF on this longer-term XLF Daily chart below with gold rectangles. I believe the next rally from the recent pullback will be similar in size and prompt a moderate upward price move targeting the $43.60 level – or higher.

Although there are some concerns related to the continuing recovery in the US markets, I believe the momentum of the US recovery and the strength in the US Dollar will push many US sectors higher over the next 60+ days. Closing out Q4:2021 and starting Q1:2022 with a reasonably strong rally that may surprise many traders.

The Financial Sector is likely to present very strong Q4:2021 revenues and earnings data as long as the global markets don’t push some crisis event or other issue that could detract from the US economic recovery. Right now, the most significant issues seem to be China and Europe.

Where The Financial ETF Sector May Go next

My opinion is that any moderate price weakness in the Financial Sector will be short-lived and will resolve into a bullish price rally, or “melt-upward” type of trend, as we move into early December 2021. Once the US Debt Ceiling issue resolves, I believe the Financial sector will begin a very strong rally pushing prices above $44 or $45 as Q4:2021 earnings expectations drive investors’ focus into Technology, Consumer Retail, Financials, and Real Estate.

The strength of the US Dollar is driving large amounts of capital into US assets and stocks right now. Based on my research, it is very likely that the US major indexes and certain sectors will continue to rally into early January 2022. If my analysis proves accurate, we may see a +11% to +18% rally in XLF before the end of January.

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE FINANCIAL ETF SECTOR AND OTHERS?

Follow my research and learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels for the ETF sectors. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. Next, a revaluation phase may begin as global traders attempt to identify emerging trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals.

Kindly take a minute to learn about my Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. My team and I have built these strategies to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP ETF sectors system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Have a great day!

Chris Vermeulen

Total ETF Portfolio – Best ETF To Buy Now

Finally, the creating, testing, fixing, testing, fix….well you get the idea…is done for the new homepage for Technical Traders! It has been a long and very informative process and I give sincere thanks to our subscribers who had a hand in giving us feedback along the way.

Our new homepage is all about our new Total ETF Portfolio. The three ETF trading strategies under the TEP umbrella, as you may know, used to be our TTI, TIBT, and BAN subscriptions. After engaging in a Member feedback drive, my team and I made the decision to combine all three strategies for the same price as one used to cost. And you know what, this change feels GREAT!  Members love it, I love it and my team loves it – who could ask for anything more?!

Total ETF Portfolio Newsletter



Now, if you are relatively new to our free research list or you’ve not checked your emails in a while, let me give you a brief look at what each of the different strategies will offer you.

The Technical Investor (TTI):
– best for passive investors with a virtual “set-it-and-forget-it” long-term strategy.

The Technical Index & Bond Trader (TIBT):
– best for active investors who want to know the best Index or Bond ETF to own and also want to be able to apply leverage.

BAN Trader Pro (BAN):
– best for active traders who want a little more action both with trading the best ETFs and more communication from me (in the form of trade alerts, premarket videos, and afternoon reports).

What having access to all three strategies means for you:
– a complete view of the market – where it’s been and where it’s likely to go.
– at least one strategy that will always be in favor and performing well.
– live bi-monthly mentoring sessions to which you are invited to ask questions and learn as much as possible about the strategies, the markets, the charts….well, pretty much anything you wonder about….except how to get marshmallow goo out of hair – can’t help you there!!
– everything from big trend changes to smaller market movements.

I could go on and on about why the Total ETF Portfolio is amazing, but instead, I’ll share with you two links:
– a recent Member review that we posted to our free research blog.
– a recent sneak peek at a weekly Technical Investor video report I send to all TEP subscribers.

I’d like to invite you to take a look at how The Total ETF Portfolio could begin to change your life for the better – let the fun begin!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder – TheTechnicalTrades.com

Real Estate ETF IYR – Trader Tip Video Analysis

IYR ETF trader tip: Using the daily chart, Technical Traders goes over IYR ETF, which had a beautiful pullback over the last month and a half and has rallied back up. Chris details how this can be seen as two different types of patterns. You can argue this is a cup and handle or a pause and consolidation before continuing to go much higher.

By using the Fibonacci extension, we can better understand where the momentum in this rally should take us going forward. Based on the current price, that would bring us somewhere up around that seven and a half percent upside move in the real estate market.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT IYR ETF – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE DIFFERENT TRADING STRATEGIES CHRIS OFFERS, PLEASE VISIT US AT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

,

Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns

Recently, the Cannabis sector has shown signs of increased volume, volatility, and a reasonably strong potential for a price base. Volume started increasing near mid-September as the price of MJ fell below $15. This support level originated from late December 2020 after a significant rally trend from recent lows near $10 – when the Reddit retail trader event started to unfold.

I wrote about this sector and these opportunities in many articles before the incredible rally in late 2020 into 2021.

What I find interesting are two things. First, the recently proposed cannabis reform legislation may prompt a nationwide declassification of marijuana as a class-3 drug. This change could open every state, consumer, industry, and banking/financial institution to kick the doors wide to participate in the cannabis industry. Secondly, this industry is well past the initial stages of growth and attrition from many years ago. Now, established players and proven markets are competing for market share. This creates a very competitive and dynamic environment in this sector.

What I believe can happen over the next 10+ years is a simple consolidation of the industry around centralized components of the cannabis market. And a renewed focus on federal approval and tracking related to “seed to consumer” regulations. My opinion is that the industry will see weaker players acquired by stronger players while startups still try to dominate the fringe market. These startups will likely be disruptors in the industry, just like independent brewers are popping up all over the US right now.

A Technical Look At cannabis etf MJ And The Pending January 2022 Apex

Technically, I see a very large Pennant/Flag formation on this Cannabis MJ chart. The formation leads me to believe early January could prompt a base or bottom near $13.25. I see the long-term support level, originating from the bottom in March 2020, as a very critical price level. This support level will likely prompt the current price to try and hold above $12.75~$13.00 as the final waves of the Pennant/Flag trend unfold.

If my wave count is correct, the price will attempt to bottom near $12.75~$13.00 soon. After this, the Cannabis MJ price will try to rally up to $15.25 to $15.75 before the end of 2021. A final downward price wave may push the price below the $13.00 level again as volatility becomes more elevated near the Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation. The Apex takes place near the end of January 2022. Therefore, traders should consider looking for buying opportunities near or below current support (somewhere near or below $12.75 to $13.00).

The Cannabis MJ chart shows price is attempting to confirm the lower support channel. If this lower support channel fails, we would wait for a new price trend to establish a new price pattern – hopefully providing better future guidance. Currently, this extended Pennant/Flag price formation appears to be trending and confirming nicely.

My belief is MJ will start at Apex near the end of January 2022. Meaning we should expect bigger price volatility and the potential for a “blow-off” price rotation sometime after January 15, 2022. Most Apex setups result in a type of wild rotation in price that I call a “blow-off” price rotation. Ideally, traders want to ride out the “blow-off” rotation and try to catch the breakout or break-away trend when it starts.

Daily MJ Chart Shows Clear Price Trending In Support Of The Lower Price Channel

This Daily MJ Chart highlights an upward price channel recently set up after price retested the $13.00 lower support level. If you understand the five waves of a Pennant/Flag formation, you’ll quickly understand there are two immediate potential outcomes for the price right now. First, the price could fail to stay within this channel and break downward – retesting the $13 lower support channel again (or possibly trend a bit lower). Second, the price could have already confirmed the $13 lower support channel and is in the process of moving higher – targeting the $15.25 to $15.75 level.

We are seeing some basing/bottoming in On Balanced Volume and a very large increase in the Daily trading volume recently. Both of these indicate traders are accumulating shares of MJ in preparation for a price move.

With pending cannabis reform legislation and President Biden likely to support this new economic frontier, any federal decriminalization of cannabis would potentially prompt a wave of buying within this sector. Given the current Pennant/Flag formation in MJ, traders may be already looking for opportunities in the cannabis sector. MJ could rally back above $20 to $21 fairly quickly.

Be patient, though, as this Pennant/Flag formation won’t be complete until sometime after January 10th to 14th. Plan how you expect the markets to trend throughout the end of this year. Watch how MJ reacts to the final three price waves of the Pennant/Flag formation. As we approach early 2022, the cannabis sector could become a leading one if the new cannabis reform legislation gets closer to becoming law. We may see another rally, like in early 2021. We may see MJ rally well above $25 if traders start chasing a breakout trend.

Want to learn more about the cannabis sector and others?

Follow my research and learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. Next, a revaluation phase may begin as global traders attempt to identify emerging trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals.

Kindly take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about my Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. My team and I have built these strategies to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Chris Vermeulen

 www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

, ,

Kondratieff Full-Season Rotation – Part II

In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:

  • Bonds were trading lower
  • Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
  • Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
  • and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs

All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.

If my assumption is correct, the COVID-19 crisis pushed the global markets into a 6+ month Summer, Autumn, and Winter seasonal cycle. This cycle transitioned back into an early Spring cycle in late 2020. Now, we are likely entering an Autumn Kondratieff season. Here, stocks boom, Bond Prices rise, and Real Estate and Commercial prices rise.

Gold, Bonds and SPY

The chart below shows Gold, Bonds, and SPY trends over the last 5+ years. It highlights the Kondratieff Seasons and the Kondratieff Hyper-Cycle that took place during the COVID-19 collapse. My belief is the COVID-19 crisis created a full Kondratieff Seasonal rotation in the global markets. Markets moved from a late Summer Season to an end of Winter/early Spring Season by January/February 2021. I believe that the Spring Season transitioned into an early Summer Season by June/July 2021. We are starting to shift toward a late summer season as we head into the end of 2021 and early 2022.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

If my research is correct, we’ll see large price trends last through January/February 2022. Following this, a shift in market sentiment after Q1:2022 – possibly into June or July 2022. Gold and Bonds will likely continue to trend higher over the next 5~6+ months as the Summer Season trends. The US Stock market will also continue to trend higher within the Summer Season. This means traders should prepare for increased potential volatility and more bullish trending into the first quarter of 2022.

Market Sectors Poised For Growth In The Current Kondratieff Season

I want to highlight several charts that I believe could see a continued bullish price trend over the next 6+ months. I also want to highlight why the Kondratieff cycles may play an essential role in trader/investor expectations over the next few years.

First, this continued Summer Season will transition into an Autumn season eventually. This is something for which we all need to be aware of and prepare. One could argue the current rise in Gold and Bonds may be an early indicator that we have begun the transition. Traders should be watching Gold and Bonds very closely for any continued rise in prices, which would indicate a potential end of the Kondratieff Summer Season. The Autumn Season is associated with “Disinflation.” Disinflation is more of a stalling of market trends while inflation is still trending higher. This type of activity pushes traders to become more protective of investment capital and risks.

IGF Weekly Chart

The IGF Weekly chart below shows how the Global Infrastructure sector is trending higher and about to break above all-time highs near $50. With the signing of the US Infrastructure Bill, this sector may continue to trend higher and attempt to move above $60 to $65 by April/May 2022. Should the Kondratieff cycles push markets higher as well, IGF may explode above $50 in the near future. Potentially, this could start a big rally higher.

IYC – Consumer Discretionary ETf

Consumer Discretionary ETF IYC has already rallied more than 100% from the COVID lows and begun to rally even stronger over the past 6+ weeks. Consumers continue to drive retail sales and core economic activity in the US, and this trend will continue through the Christmas holiday season. IYC will likely continue to trend higher, possibly breaking above $110 within the next 60+ days. Should the US Federal Reserve not do anything to break this trend, it may continue higher well into the end of Q1:2022.

XLI – AMEX Industrial Select ETF

The AMEX Industrial Select ETF, XLI, is just above a 100% move from the COVID-19 lows. I believe XLI may see a breakout rally above $110 over the next few weeks as the continued Kondratieff Summer/Autumn season pushes sector trends higher through early 2022. I believe the Industrial sector will rally due to the recently signed Infrastructure Bill and will rally following the S&P 50 and NASDAQ higher. In fact, given the current range between the GAP near November 2020, my Fibonacci Price Expansion technique suggests a target level near $124.

XRT – S&P Retail ETF

XRT, the S&P Retail ETF sector, is almost certainly poised for another broad move higher after US sales data came in stronger than expected, and we head into the 2021 Christmas holiday season. I would expect Q4:2021 retail numbers to be moderately strong this year – even though we hear about supply chain issues.

XRT has rallied almost 400% from the COVID-19 lows and may rally another 15% to 20% higher before the end of January/February 2022. Any pullback below $100 may present an excellent entry opportunity for new long trades.

As we explore the Kondratieff Seasonal cycles and attempt to apply this knowledge to the current market dynamics, I believe the end-of-year rally may be much more robust than many people think is possible. US consumers are still very active in the economy, homes are still selling, and the post-COVID recovery strengthens. Unless something happens to disrupt this trend, US stock sectors are still likely to continue higher well into Q1:2022.

Now is the time to consider where and how to participate in this rally phase while we watch Gold, Bonds, and these sector trends for any shift into a late Autumn Kondratieff season.

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT MARKET TRENDS?

Follow my research and learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. Next, a revaluation phase may begin as global traders attempt to identify emerging trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals.

Kindly take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about my Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. My team and I have built these strategies to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Chris Vermeulen

 www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

What Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.

COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.

Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

What has happened in the US since COVID-19 hit is vastly different than this cycle presents. First, consumers shifted away from metropolitan areas. This move started driving up Real Estate, Consumer Goods (Technology), Automobiles, and Capital Goods prices as they relocated and settled. Then, as supply chains slowed down and lock-downs persisted, consumers shifted gears again and began to alter spending habits, anticipating a longer-term COVID-19 recovery.

This shift in spending and earning prompted many retail investors and consumers to focus on the incredible price trends in the US stock market in late 2020 and early 2021. I’m sure you remember the “Reddit Rallies” that set the stock market on fire in January 2021? While many consumers could still earn and save because of the COVID-19 lock-downs, the shift in working schedules allowed many to become traders. This surge drove an incredible rally in the US markets over the past 12+ months.

What Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?

2020~2022 Hyper-Cycle Event May Be Shifting Into Autumn/Winter Soon

My opinion is that the globe pushed through a deep market contraction at the start of COVID-19. Following this was a strong global recovery phase – which happened within a 12-month window. After the November 2020 US Presidential Elections, while the extended COVID variants continued to plague the world, we entered a renewed type of Hyper-Kondratieff market cycle (Seasons).

Follow my thinking through this process:

A. COVID became a known issue in late 2019. The Global markets are holding up reasonably well at that time. (Likely Moderate Spring/Summer in Kondratieff Seasons)

B. COVID HITS (Late February 2020). Lock-downs start, and consumers shift their spending/saving habits. The mass transition begins for millions as the collapse of the global markets (a Hyper-Autumn/Winter/Spring Kondratieff cycle) takes place over only 4~5 months.

C. By July/August 2020, the global markets are starting to recover. Retail traders and institutions are eyeing the perceived recovery and believe the economic contraction is over. Retail traders begin to engage in the markets and start to drive trends (a post-COVID Spring and Early Summer event continues well into mid-2021).

D. The global markets, and many of the strongest ETFs and market indicators, peaked in February 2021 and entered an extended sideways/consolidation phase. That is, until recently. Inflation has started to become an issue. Global markets are struggling to find growth while the US markets continue to rally. (This is a late-stage Kondratieff Summer phase that is starting to transition into an early Kondratieff Autumn Season)

COVID Kondratieff Hyper-Cycle May Pressure Big Moves In Global ETFs/Sectors

Over the past 24 months, I believe we’ve completed a Hyper-Kondratieff Seasonal cycle phase. We may now be heading into an extended Summer/Autumn cycle phase lasting well into early 2022 – possibly longer. Following this, the Winter Kondratieff season may be longer and more extensive in scope as price trends have become exaggerated over the past 24+ months.

My research suggests global market trends and ETF sectors are poised for a powerful rally through 2021 and into early 2022 as Q4:2021 earnings and the continued Kondratieff Summer season extends. Retail and Institutional Traders will chase this rally phase while global central banks ease away from making any sudden moves to disrupt this cycle.

I believe many global central banks already understand the extreme trends and pressures pushed into the markets throughout COVID. These institutions continue to expect an extended Winter Season to creep into the global markets in the second half of 2022 or later. Given the inflationary pressures on the markets right now, one would think global central banks would be doing more to contain the potential for runaway inflation. They are, however, staying overly cautious.

The ECB recently commented that raising rates may do more harm than good (Source: Bloomberg). The US Federal Reserve also indicated extreme caution related to monetary policies recently. I think they are expecting a future contraction of inflation and pricing pressures as supply-chain issues resolve and as the current Summer Season shifts into Autumn and eventually Winter.

Traders need to stay prepared for any number of extreme price events over the next 12 to 24+ months, focusing on the strongest trending asset classes/sectors. If my research is correct, we should be transitioning into a late Summer Season – leading to an Autumn Season in early 2022. A Kondratieff Autumn season is indicative of a “Blow-Off Rally Phase” in the markets where a peak in price eventually sets up.

Want To Learn More about market trends?

Part II of this article will explore some ETF sectors that may benefit from the extended Summer/Autumn Kondratieff seasons.

Follow my research and learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, setups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. Next, a revaluation phase may begin as global traders attempt to identify emerging trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals.

Kindly take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about my Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. My team and I have built these strategies to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Chris Vermeulen

 www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

,

KRE ETF – Trader Tip Video Analysis

KRE ETF trader tip: Technical Traders goes over KRE ETF, an ETF that allows traders and investors to learn more about the stock market movements of regional banks. Chris details how history is repeating itself by the KRE ETF recently emulating the consolidation pattern from April to November of 2020. Now that the highs of May 2021 have been broken, Chris looks at the weekly chart.

After a brief pullback, a KRE ETF bull flag has formed that is pointing to higher prices. This type of pattern can indicate that when price breaks to the upside, it can happen pretty quickly – over the course of 3 to 4 trading sessions.

Using the 30-minute chart and a conservative Fibanoci extension, Chris highlights where the power of the rally and pause of the KRE ETF can lead. The 100% measured move shows a 5+% move to the upside.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT KRE ETF – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE DIFFERENT TRADING STRATEGIES CHRIS OFFERS, PLEASE VISIT US AT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

, , ,

Kitco Gold Forecast & Stock Market Video

Chris sits down with David Lin from Kitco News to discuss the recent runs in the different stock market sectors and the largest upside potential in 2022.

Spend a bit of time with Chris and David as they discuss market strategy. Learn whether:

  • buying and holding the dips is a good idea.
  • buying into fear or selling during euphoria is as hard as it sounds.
  • altering your perspective will help you become a better trader/investor.
  • adhering to your strategy rules will help or hinder your end results.

STOCK MARKET SECTOR ROTATION

The overall feeling Chris Vermeulen has regarding the stock market is that the energy sector may be losing steam while technology, gold, silver and their miners are beginning to draw attention and investment. The economic concerns facing China and the US, in particular, are creating a situation where the stock market and gold are climbing in value at the same time.

“Stock market levels,” he says, “are determined by how we get to the lofty levels”. Parabolic moves to the upside are more likely to crash back down to earth than they are to continue their flight. If the rally takes longer and moves slower, it is more likely to chop around and then stabilize. This can offer a stronger position from which an uptrend can begin.

TO LEARN MORE CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO WATCH THE INTERVIEW

GET YOUR DAILY DOSE OF CHRIS’S SILVER AND GOLD ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE HOTTEST ETFS TO TRADE WITH BAN TRADER PRO!

, , ,

Stock Market: Recent Rallies & Runs – Video

Chris joins Jim Goddard on HoweStreet.com to discuss the stock market’s recent rallies & runs over the past month. There have been roughly a ten percent rally in the S&P500 & Nasdaq, without having a pullback. Generally, a 2-3% correction, lasting for 2-5 days, is considered a healthy move. Overall, the more the market goes without a correction, the bigger the correction will be later.

When money flows out of the stock market it will usually head to the safety and comfort of defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utilities, bonds and gold.

Precious metals, in particular gold and silver, recently went into a recovery phase from a year-long bear market. Though still struggling with resistance, precious metals may begin to pick up speed in 2022.

CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO LEARN MORE ABOUT STOCK MARKET RALLIES & RUNS

GET YOUR DAILY DOSE OF CHRIS’ PRECIOUS METALS ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE HOTTEST ETFS TO TRADE WITH BAN TRADER PRO NOW PART OF THE TOTAL ETF PORTFOLIO!

, , ,

Gold Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex

Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.

This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in this scenario. Near-zero interest rates, excessive amounts of money and credit throughout the world, asset prices showing near hyper-inflation trends, and the global central banks taking very little action to address any future economic concerns.

The Luster Of Gold May Be Growing For Global Investors

The luster of Gold over the past 15 months has slightly diminished. Global central banks, corporations, and consumers jumped into the easy money rally and ignored ongoing risks. Now, China’s economic concerns and corporate debt issues continue to plague the global markets. Investors are suddenly waking up to the potential of rising global risks over the past 12+ months – not subsiding.

Recently, China’s economic and credit/debt issues have spilled over into more broad market concerns. What used to be more of a junk-rated debt issue has now transitioned into more of a global concern as China’s demand for cheap credit over the past 8+ years may have created the components of a perfect storm in the making (source: Yahoo! Finance).

I published research articles about this many months ago – which are still relevant.

After reviewing some of my earlier research posts, I urge you to consider a unique situation that may be taking place in the global markets right now. I believe the US markets have transitioned into a new Depreciation Cycle Phase (started near the end of 2019). As the US Dollar continues to try and hold above the $90~$91 level, we may be entering a foreign market economic crisis prompted by US easy money policies over the past 12+ years. If this is the case, then the US stock market and the US Dollar may continue to show strength well into a foreign market collapse – also while Gold and Silver start to move higher.

What Could Happen Next

This type of event will eventually spread into the US markets as concerns mount related to the depth and cross-border economic issues if any economic contagion event continues. Yet my thinking is that initially US assets, and the US Dollar, may rise as global traders/investors move away from global/Asian market risks and pour capital into safer US stocks and the US Dollar. This may prompt a rally phase in the US stock market and push the US Dollar above $95~96 briefly before traders realize the full scale and scope of this potential global crisis in the making.

This Daily Gold chart highlights the extended Pennant/Flag price formation and how Gold has started to see increased trading volume in what appears to be an upward price breakout. Still, Gold must break above two key levels before considering this potential rally phase confirmed: $1845 and $1920.

Gold Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex

Fibonacci Price Extensions Show $2600 As A Potential Price Target For Gold

This Weekly Gold chart highlights a longer-term Fibonacci Price Extension pattern. It suggests that $2240 and $2600 are likely to be price targets for Gold if this rally continues. Many traders believe the last 15+ months of sideways trading in Gold has formed a “handle” for a bigger “cup-n-handle” price pattern. Ideally, I would like to see a Gold rally above $1925~1940 before attempting to confirm the “cup-n-handle” pattern.

My interpretation of the global markets and Gold is just as I stated above. Gold is starting to become more interesting for global investors as the China debt/economic crisis continues. Risks are mounting if the economic contraction in China/Asia continues. Global risks are already excessive after 24+ months of extended global central bank functions, easy credit, and increasing inflation. As a result of inflation, pricing pressures will eat away at profits for many firms. Slowing consumer demand could blow a big hole in demand for many assets.

Traders should prepare for a bout of price volatility headed into the end of 2021 as these issues continue to work themselves out. My technical analysis suggests this rally may continue into early January 2022. My cycle analysis indicates a change in price trend may initiate after January 18th or so. Yet, I also believe this potential rally in Gold may be just starting, and global concerns may be festering while the US stock market rallies. This is because global traders are piling into US assets/stocks while attempting to avoid economic/debt concerns in other world areas.

Gold will continue to react to this new concern and fear as it populates in traders’ minds. The luster of Gold will likely continue to grow – which may push Gold above $1950 before the end of 2021. Time will tell.

Want To Learn More?

Follow my research and learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may form a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next significant trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern drive traders/investors into Metals.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology, and it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. We’ve built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Chris Vermeulen

 www.TheTechnicalTraders.com