Here are my charts of GDX and GLD during pre-market trading today (Thursday, March 31st). I sent this chart to my followers alerting them of today’s market bias and intraday trade setup.
If you don’t know what spike alerts are, let me explain briefly. In short, the market gives of these rogue price spikes which only some data feeds catch and share. On top of that, some data feeds filter their data depending on the chart timeframe you are loading and will only use the AVERAGE price and not every tick to create the price bar on the chart.
Meaning, even if your charting platform and data feeds don’t filter our these rogue price spikes (which most do filter these out), then you may only see these price spike with specific chart time frames like the 30-minute or a 10-minute chart. It varies from day to day and when the rogue spike happens.
Bottom line, if you see these spikes, 80% of the time we see the price spike target reached within 36-48 hours.
TODAYS PRE-MARKET SPIKE ALERT:
This shows you the spike and gap windows on the chart. Typically Gaps get filled so when a spike matched that gap I fall in love with the setup that much more 🙂
END OF DAY TRADING RESULTS – TAKE A LOOK
TRADING CONCLUSION:
In short, while today’s moves were no huge by any means total about 60 cents per share, in many cased these spikes provide $1-$3 per share profit and if you are active trader with 500 or 1000 share lots making some decent spending money 🙂
The last thing, I will be adding an update feature to the members area where these price spikes for SPY, QQQ, GDX, and GLD are tracked and members will receive email alerts for pre and post market hours when they occur which is going to be awesome! I excited as it will save me all the chart surfing and jumping time frames to find these trade.
I envision reasons to be ‘extremely’ cautious within the short-term (approximately, 5 to 15 days). Gold is now close to its’ resistance, which will make further ‘upside’ progress very difficult to achieve, at this point. It is now registering its’ sixth week in ‘overbought territory’. Finally, coming from an ‘overbought’ area, any ‘rolling over’ to the downside may prove to be significant.
Tonight as I was going over my charts and running my end of analysis the charts jumped out at me with a trade setup and wanted to share my cycle chart for gold with you.
The price chart of gold below is exactly what my cycle analysis told us to look for last week WELL ahead of the today’s news and its things play out I as I feel they will then we stand to make some pretty good money as gold falls in value during the month of April.
If you have been following my work for any length of time then you know big price movements in the market like today (Tuesday, March 29th) based around the FED news ARE NOT and SHOULD NOT be of any surprise.
In fact, this charts told use about today’s pop 2 weeks ago and we have been waiting for it ever since. The news is simply the best way to get the masses on board with market moves and gets them on the wrong side of the market before it makes a big move in the other direction, most times… not always, though.
Take a look at this chart below. You’ll see two cycle indicators, one pink and one blue. The pink cycle line is a cluster of various cycles blended together which allows us to view the overall market trend of biased looking forward 5 – 30 days.
The blue cycle line is a cluster of much shorter time frame cycles in this tells us when we should expect strong moves in the same direction of the pink cycles or countertrend pullbacks within the trend.
One quick point to note with cycle trading is that the height and depth of the cycle does not mean the price will rise or fall to those levels, it simply tells us if the market has an upward or downward bias.
The current cycle analysis for gold along with the current price is telling us that today the short term cycle topped which is the blue line and our main trend cycle is already heading lower. The odds favor gold should roll over and make new multi-month Lows in August.
Gold Trading Conclusion:
In short, we have been waiting for gold to have a technical breakdown and to retrace back up into a short-term overbought condition. Today Tuesday, March 29 it looks as though we finally have the setup.
Over the next 5 to 15 days I expect gold to drop along with silver and gold stocks. There are many ways to play this through inverse exchange traded funds or short selling gold, silver or gold stocks.
This year and 2017 I believe are going to be incredible years for both traders and investors. If treated correctly, it can be a life-changing experience financially for some individuals.
Join my pre-market video newsletter and start your day with a hot cup of coffee and my market forecast video: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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Stock markets rebounded solidly from their lows of February 11th, 2016, making new multi-month highs, earlier last week. The SPX rescinded 0.7% by the end of last week. These market gains can be attributed to the very bullish decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the FED Central Banks. On March 10th, 2016, the ECB surprised the financial world by announcing a much stronger than expected stimulus package. One week later, the FED announced that it would not raise its’ short-term interest rates. It was only three months earlier, back in December of 2015, that they suggested that they would raise rates four times in 2016. It is now my belief, that they will not raise short- term interest ‘materially’ in 2016.
Most broad-based indexes are now trading flat thus far in 2016, as range-bound conditions persist. FED members will be speaking during the course of this week, including FED Chairwoman Dr. Yellen who will speak, tomorrow morning, Tuesday, March 29th, 2016, to discuss the next move of this unprecedented intervention.
The change of attitude is due to the fact that the global economy is so weak that Central Bankers fear a ‘market crash’. Obviously, they want economic growth. They want inflation, but, so far that has not materialized. They have had the power and independence, in these past seven years to do so, but we are still spiraling towards ‘deflation’. What they have achieved was ‘Asset Inflation’ and ‘Earning Inflation’. We will see and feel the effect of such ‘excessive monetary stimulus’ induced by the Central Banks, very shortly.
The charts of stock markets are still long- term bearish (refer to the charts below) and are currently approaching a critical juncture! This is a location that we could see a very short -term bounce, but I am not interested in taking any long positions. The markets could still push a bit higher. In April 2016, global stocks will enter their annual period of negative seasonality along with its’ bearish technical internals. I am waiting for confirmation of the top being in place, in order to finally recommend Inverse ETFs.
Overall, this is just the beginning of the major SPX turn. We are currently at an ‘ideal resistance’ area. The SPX is currently in a downward channel. The momentum oscillators are extremely overbought and are now trending downwards. They need to cycle back down. Volume is declining with higher prices and that is a sign of weakness. I will keep monitoring this new major event which continues to slowly unfold.
The U.S Dollar has moved up in the past few days. This is placing pressure on gold, silver and crude oil. The retracement of gold and silver is now in the process, as I have been discussing over the past few weeks. We are heading even lower for a fantastic long term entry.
Stock Market & Crude Oil Relationship
The recent month long rally in stocks which started early in February was given a lot of upside momentum from the rising price in crude oil. But when oil stalls, tops and starts another decline expect the stock market to fall fast and hard.
Market Tops: S&P 500 and Crude Oil Conclusion:
In short, the stock market and crude oil prices have posted some serious gains in the past month. But both are not showing signs of weakness in terms of price action, buying volume, and cycle analysis.
We may see stocks and oil hold up and possibly make minor new highs over the next five to ten sessions but it’s going to be a struggle (choppy market) before we likely see the next market selloff.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/stockmarket.jpg260390adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2016-03-28 09:00:222016-03-28 09:37:48A Top in Place for Oil & SPX?
China’s stock market ‘bubble’ was fueled by “speculative mania” which has proven to have had grave implications of the global stock markets. The collapse of this “speculative mania” will have far-reaching ramifications on…
The SPX at the 2050 level looks like a great place for a ‘pullback’ to begin as indicated in the chart below. There is a potential “distribution topping phase” in which the SPX may pull back to 2000. I see a potential target at 1890.
The price has made a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows since topping in 2015. There was a big August 2015 sell-off, followed by a rally to a lower high in November 2015, then a sell-off to a lower low in January 2016. The rally currently is still at a lower high than the November 2015 high.
Based on data, provided by Investor Intelligence, the bulls are up to 47.4% and the bears are down to 27.8%. This data has been collected from a survey of newsletter writers and investor advisors. This sentiment has changed very quickly and now points to an ‘exhaustion inflection point’ in the SPX. This is a rare and excess ‘swing’ of sentiment within a very brief period of time. It is reflecting that this move upwards is ‘unsustainable’!
A topping phase has now started, but know we could see slightly higher highs during this choppy process.
Crude Oil and SPX Comparison Chart:
As long as the WTI Oil does not rally, the SPX will continue its’ decline.
SPX and Oil Trading Conclusion:
I feel oil will hold up and bounce for a couple more weeks and help support the stock market. But once stocks lose their upward momentum and oil starts to fall again – look out below!
Find out when to buy and sell the key indexes, sectors and commodities with my ETF trade alert newsletter: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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Today’s Price Spike and Target was Reached but there is still more upside potential!
Price Spikes are a very short-term trade setup that typically reach their targets withing 48 hours and in most cases within 24 hours. I have covered these on great detail a few weeks ago when we had a wave of these trade setups take place. If there is any price spike in QQQ, SPY, DIA or IWM we can expect all markets to move in that direction. So trade the index you are most comfortable with. You can learn more about price spikes: Click Here
Wednesday, March 23rd Post Market Spike and Target
Thursday, March 24th Pre-Market Spike & Target 1 Hit
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GET THIS VIDEO FORECAST EVERY MORNING BEFORE THE MARKET OPENS – CLICK HERE
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We have been experiencing an exceptionally strong ‘counter trend” rally in the stock market. This recent bullish upward move is not what everyone is thinking, in fact its the beginning of a new…
Global Central Banks have run out of ‘ammunition’. Since March 2008, Central Banks have cut interest rates 637 times and have purchased a staggering $12.3 trillion dollars’ worth of assets. There is not much more that they can do, and currently, the next ‘great crisis’ is upon us.
The global economy and the global financial system will continue to weaken before our very own eyes.
If we do experience a major “black swan event” that takes place, it will cause the bottom of the stock markets around the world to fall out, and this could happen at any given moment.
Chinese exports have seen their sharpest drop in almost seven years, adding to concerns over the health of the worlds’ second largest economy. Exports havedropped sharply by 25.4% from the previous year, while imports fell 13.8%. This weak data comes on the heels of Beijing registering their ‘ slowest economic growth in 25 years’.
The February 2016 trade figures reflected, are likely to raise new fears over China’s struggles to maintain economic growth, while implementing reforms and trying to shift towards more services and domestic spending. China was considered ‘the engine of global growth’.
The FED has been looking at the ‘illusion of recovery’, but not the real deal. If this were real, we would not have 100 million adult Americans without jobs. There are currently 46 million citizens on foods stamps as compared to 18 million that were in 2000. Thirty-five percent of the population is receiving some form of public assistance. For so many years, Global Central Banks have been manipulating the financial marketplace with their ‘monetary voodoo’. They have convinced investors, around the world, to invest trillions of dollars into equities; artificially inflating the ‘equity asset class’. By creating money out of ‘thin air’ and pumping it into the financial system it devalues currencies and creates an artificial sense of a true economic recovery which so far has not been realized.
A shock to the financial system and ‘contracting economic growth’ from abroad will force the FED to delay further short interest rate increases and furthermore, reverse their course. These ‘academic pinheads’ are so blinded by their tinker toy “Keynesians Macro-Model” that they cannot see the flashing red light warnings that are in front of them. Keynesian fiscal policies, which postulate that spending more of taxpayer money, that it would “stimulate” an ‘economic rebound’. IT FAILED!
Last week, Chairwoman Dr. Yellen, was forced to wave ‘a white flag’. The FED overestimated the strength of the global markets and consequently, will not be able to go ahead with its planned four short term interest rate hikes, in 2016.
This growing situation is going to result in the FED resuming ‘monetarizing public debt’. Dr. Yellen is now beginning to listen to the advice of, her predecessor, Dr. Bernanke, and is now potentially embracing negative interest rates.
Central Bankers Do Not Understand ‘Booms and Busts’:
Central Banks still do not understand the ‘boom and bust cycles’. Falling stock prices will shortly be in the news. Central Bankers still do not understand ‘deflation’, whether they are ‘Keynesians’ or some other variant, thereof.
The next ‘bubble’ that is yet to burst
Student financial debt is out of control. Over $1.3 trillion in student debt is floating around in the current economic system. The majority of this debt is a burden to younger Americans, who are entering into a job market with incredibly low wages. Student financial loan delinquencies are rising dramatically. Student debt is now the worst performing sector of loans in our economy. This is yet another ‘bubble’ that is yet to burst. Momentum will catch up and the delinquencies will be the first cracks in the dam.
We now must embrace our own prosperity, our financial freedom and peace of mind in our daily lives. I accurately warned my past clients of the housing bust, the credit crisis and the ‘Great Recession’ more than one and a half years in advance.
It is now time to prepare for the inevitable. Gold has been used as money for more than 3,500 years while it doubles as a currency and a store of value. It has also proven to be a good hedge since the experiments with unbacked fiat money which began in Europe and the USA, in the 18th century have failed to store one’s value or wealth.
Gold is the purest form of ‘money’ and the oldest and most durable. The Gold Aurum Coin was already legal tender and the first coin to be ever used. The oldest gold coins are derived from the seventh century BC.
Investors use gold as a ‘store of value’ in their IRA or simply by holding physical bullion, which is explained in this gold investing guide. Gold metal offers the appearance of capital appreciation compared to devaluing currencies. Gold has always had favorable liquidity throughout history and will become more liquid in the coming years are more of the world turn to gold as a store of value, hedge on inflation, and insurance policy incase the financial systems does actually implode one day.
While I talk about gold in this article, it is not the only place to not only maintain your wealth and buying power. In fact, there are a couple of other assets and trades which I think can make more money in far less time for us traders and active investors. In the last two weeks subscribers and myself closed 4 ETF trades for a total of 19.1% in profits.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/ADream.jpg457800adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2016-03-22 10:44:172016-03-22 11:07:18The ‘Crisis’ Has Just Begun; Is The American Dream Is Over?
