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The Holiday Grind Is Here For 10 Days Only – Are You Ready?

It’s that time again when volume dries up and prices rise into the new year. A lot of individuals are scrambling to prepare for the holidays, even though we had a year to prepare. The big money has already done most of their year end shuffling and will be taking it easy until January.

The market is overbought and sentiment readings are at extreme levels which in the past have been the start of large sell offs and even bear markets. While I am keeping a close eye for a top, there is not much we can do but stay long stocks and commodities until the market tips its hand and distribution selling is in control. The U.S. federal government is the only wild card going into year end that should be on traders’ radars. They have been doing a great job boosting prices in the equities and commodities market, but can they continue to hold things up when the big money and the proverbial herd start unloading positions in 2011?

SP500 Holiday Grind – Daily Chart
This chart shows the slow and steady grind higher that we have seen in the S&P 500. I expect this to continue into 2011 The market in my opinion is on the verge of some serious selling so long positions should be small going forward.

US Dollar On Pause For A Couple of Weeks
This 4 hour candle stick chart of the dollar shows price testing resistance (a previous high). I am expecting to see the U.S. Dollar trade sideways or possibly move closer to the previous high as we enter the new year. A sideways dollar will allow the equity and commodity markets to rise.

Weekend Conclusion:
In short, I think we could see an intraday pullback early this week and then a grind higher. The pullback would shake out some weak positions before the holiday march higher takes place. I typically don’t trade much going into the holiday season and new year. I may put on a small long position if I like what I see forming on the charts, but that would likely be about it. Light volume can be very dangerous to trade because sharp price spikes up or down can occur in a blink of an eye catching traders off guard.

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Chris Vermeulen

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The Inverse Dollar Relationship, SPX and Fear

So far this week we have been seeing fear creep in the equities market. This Wednesday we started to see fear (green indicator) reach a level which tells me to start looking for the market to bottoming. I do follow a few other charts and indicators which warn me of a possible trend reversal (high probability setup) before it takes place but the US Dollar and selling volume are key.

As we all know, when the market is trying to top and roll over it tends to be more of a process than a couple day event. It’s this lengthy topping process which has a lot of choppy price action sucking traders into a position much to early or shakes you out of the position before the market does what you anticipated. Knowing that tops tend to drag out for an extended period of time is critical for an options trader simple because of Theta (time decay)

On the flip side, bottoming is more of an event because it tends to happen after a strong wave of panic selling. Fear is the most powerful force in the market (other than the Fed/Manipulators.. but that’s another topic). That being said, when you know what to look for in bottoms you can generally see the market starting to bottom and prepare for it.

The charts below of the US Dollar Index and the SPY clearly show the inverse relationship they have. Right now it seems everything is directly connected with the dollar… it has been like that for most if the year… I will note that its not normally this clear. Anyways, the dollar is currently trading at resistance which means there is a good chance it will turn back down. So if the dollar drops, then it should boost the SPY (equities market) and put in a bottom for stocks.

Looking at the lower chart of the SPY etf you can see that recent prices have dropped down to a support zone. The important thing to note here is how selling volume is ramping up. This to me means more traders are getting worried and are cutting their losses or locking in gains before it gets worse. We typically see panic selling enter the market near the end of pullbacks. Just like in a bull market where the retail trader (John Doe) is the last to buy into a stock before it falls, it’s the same but flipped in a down trend. The retail trader is the last to panic and sell out of their position before the market bounces/rallies.

Currently the equities market looks to be showing signs that a bottom is nearing. Over the next session or two the rest of this equation should come to light as a tradable bottom or to start playing the down side of the market, only time will tell…

If you would like to learn more and get my trading alerts along with my pre-market morning videos so you know what to look for in the coming session I recommend taking up a subscription with my ETF trading newsletter here: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold & the Overall Strength of the Market

The past week has been interesting to say the least. Gold is trying to find support while the SP500 grinds its way higher. Let’s jump into the charts and analysis to get better feel for what I feel is happening here.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
As you can see from the chart below gold has formed a possible double top. The fact that it made a higher high is actually a bearish sign for the intermediate term 1-3 weeks. When we see a higher high getting sold into with big volume it typically means the big money is unloading large positions into the surge of breakout traders and short covering that occurs when a new high is reached. Following the big money is very important to keep an eye on as it can warn us of possible trend changes before it occurs.

The current selling volume is not exactly a healthy sign if you are looking for higher prices in the near term. If this pattern breaks down I would expect $1340 to be reached very quickly.

Keep in mind gold it in a strong up trend still. Shorting is not the best play in my opinion. I prefer to see pullback which washes the market of weak positions then jump on the long side for another bounce/rally.

SP500 Market Internal Strength – 10min, 3 days chart
I watch these charts to get a feel for the overall market strength on a short term basis. The top chart shows the SPY etf breaking above a resistance trend line on Friday afternoon. This occurred on light volume meaning it is mostly likely a false breakout and Monday we could see a gap lower at the open or a pop & drop. The two other indicators are reaching an extreme level which normally tells us a pullback is due in the next 24-48 hours of trading. The question is, will us just be a bull market pause or will we get a decent pullback.

The red indicator in the top chart and the red indicator levels on the charts below that help us time the market as to when profits should be taken or to tighten our stops if we have any long positions.

The broad market is still in a very strong uptrend so moving stops up and buying on oversold dips is the way to play it.

Weekend Market Analysis Conclusion:
In short, both gold and the stock market are in a bull market (uptrend). Trying to pick a top to short the market is not a good idea. Instead I am looking for an extreme oversold condition to help reduce downside risk before taking a long position.

The overall strength of the market (SP500 and Gold) I think are starting to weaken but in no way am I going to short them. We continue to buy dips until proven wrong because indicators can stay in the extreme overbought levels for a long period of time. Generally the biggest moves happen in the last 10-20% of the trend.

If you would like to get these weekly reports and my trading tips book free be sure to visit my website: www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

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Is The Herd Trading Gold & SP500?

Over the past 2 weeks we have seen the market sentiment change three times from extreme bullish to bearish and back to bullish as of today. Normally we don’t see the herd (average Joe) switch trading directions this quickly. Over the past 10 years I found that the average time for the herd to reach an extreme bullish or bearish bias takes between 4-6 weeks in length. It is this herd mentality which makes for some excellent trend trading opportunities. But with the quantitative easing, thinner traded market, and lack of trading participants (smaller herd) I find everyone is ready to change directions at the drop of a hat.

The old school traders/investors who don’t use real-time data or charts, and who dabbled in stock picks, and options trades here and there have mostly exited the trading arena from frustration or losing to much money. This group accounted for a decent chuck of liquidity in the market and was also the slowest of the herd to change directions.

The new school, today’s smaller herd is much more aggressive and quicker to act on market gyrations. I think this is because the only people left in the market are those who make a living pulling money from the market and those who feel they are really close to mastering the stock market. It is these individuals who are using trading platforms with real-time data, charts and scanners to help get a pulse on the market so they can change directions when the big boys do. I feel this is the reason why the market is able to turn on a dime one week to another over the past 8 months… The easy prey (novice and delayed data traders) are few and far between and the fight to take money for other educated traders seems to be getting a little more interesting to say the least.

Anyways, enough about the herd already…

It’s been an interesting week thus far with stocks and commodities. The week started with a large gap up only for strong selling volume to step in and reverse direction the following day. It is this negative price action that starts to put fear into the market triggering a downward thrust in the market. During an up trend which we are in now, I look for these bearish chart patterns to form as they tend to trigger more selling the following days which cleanses the market of weak positions. Once a certain level of traders have been shaken out of their positions and are entering positions in order to take advantage of a falling market, that’s when we get the next rally, catching the majority of traders off guard as they panic to buy back their short positions. It’s this short covering which sparks a strong multi day rally and kicks off the new leg up in the market.

Currently we getting some mixed signals. The market sentiment is the most bullish it has been since 2007, just a little higher than the Jan & March highs this year. This makes me step back and think twice about taking any sizable long positions. Any day now the market could roll over. Another bearish signal is the fact that we just had a very strong reversal day for stocks and metals to the down side. That typically leads to more selling.

But if we look at the positive side of things, the trend is still up, this is typically a strong time for stocks as we go into Christmas/Holiday season, also the market breadth is really strong with the number of stocks hitting new highs has really taking off.

SP500 – Daily Chart

Below you can see the reversal candles along with short term and intermediate support levels. Although the market sentiment is screaming a correction is near, we must realize that sentiment can remain at this level for an extended period of time while the market continues to trend. This is one of the reasons why we say “The Trend Is Our Friend”.

I am hoping for a pullback and would like to see market sentiment shift enough on an intraday basis to give us a low risk entry point.

Gold – Daily Chart

A reversal candle is seen as a sell signal or a profit taking pattern. Short term aggressive trades use these to lock in quick price movements. With so many traders watching gold, it caused a flood of sell orders to push gold down today.

Mid-Week Conclusion:

In short, each time we see some decent selling in the market its get bought back up. Today was another perfect example as we had an early morning sell off, then a light volume rally for the second half of the session and a end of day short squeeze during the last 30 minutes. Gold has pulled back to the first short term support level. Because of the large following in gold I would like to see if there will be another day of follow through selling before possibly looking to take a trade.

If you would like to get my daily pre-market trading videos, intraday updates, chart analysis and trades just subscribe to my trading service here: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Broad Market Reversal – Better Hold On To Your Hat!

This had been an exiting week for traders as the equities market was on a verge of a major sell off. Fortunately, we were watching the market very closely and saw the sentiment and market internals shift shortly after a new low was set last week. That was an early warning for us that a trend reversal to the upside could happen at any hour or day this week.

Wednesday and Thursday’s rallies were on solid volume and the market internal indicators along with market breadth were strong also. There has been a large surge of new highs across the board on the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX. These numbers tell me that it’s not just one sector moving the market; instead it’s a broad market advance (institutional buying).

While I don’t typically try to pick major tops or bottoms because of the added risks and lower probability of winning trades, I do tend to spot them forming a few days in advance allowing me to tighten stops and take some profits on positions.

Trend reversals typically have large violent moves near the beginning and end of their life cycle making things not only tougher to trade but potentially more costly. Once I see a trend confirmed with moving averages, volume, and sentiment along with market breadth that’s when I start looking to take positions on pauses or pullbacks to support zones. This greatly increases the odds of winning/making money from the market. There are some really great Options Trading Strategies for taking advantage of these volatility changes in the market which you can get at OptionsTradingSignals.com

SPY Daily Chart:
As you can see the market has clearly broken to the upside above key moving averages after finding support at the 50 day moving average. This rally has some solid volume behind it which I like to see also.

The first 3-4 days of a trend reversal generally post some give moves but after that initial thrust expect a pause or pullback to happen.

SPY 60 Minute Intraday Chart:
We were lucky enough to take profits on our inverse SP500 trade as the market started to give us mixed signals of a possible rally. A couple days later on Nov 26th we saw a major shift within the market sentiment preventing us from shorting the market again.

Two days later the broad market gapped higher triggering protective stops/short covering sparking a fierce two day rally which took the market up to a major resistance level. I do feel as though the market is going higher, but right now, everything is WAY over bought and trading at resistance. Even if the market moves higher for another 2-3 days and breaks this resistance level, it will most likely have a pause, or pullback as it regains energy for another thrust higher.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, it looks as though the trend is now up and the Christmas rally could be gearing up for a good one!

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Or

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Chris Vermeulen

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Gold/Silver – Controlling Your Trades, Money & Emotions

Last week we had typical pre-holiday light volume trading going into US Thanksgiving. The previous week I warned every one to trade with extreme caution because of the light volume and the fact that the market is on the verge of a sizable drop for both stocks and commodities. Any price action could not be taken seriously because of the light volume. We will not know until later this coming week what the big money wants to do… Buy or Sell, also what the manipulators will do… Seems like there are a lot of wild cards out there with Europe issues and both unemployment and payroll numbers out on Friday morning.

Below are a few charts showing my intermediate term outlook for gold and silver.

Gold & Silver Futures – Daily Chart
You can see both metal are showing a possible reversal head and shoulders pattern. While they have yet to confirm and close below the neck line we must be aware of this pattern and the risk/potential it provides us with. Both metals are still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness.

US Dollar Index – Weekly Chart
This chart is not really that helpful for trading stocks, commodities or options right now but I wanted to post it because it allows me to show you how I analyze the market and my trades.

As you can see, the past 3 weeks have been in a strong uptrend reaching the first resistance level. The point of this chart is to show you that if you step out to the next longer time frame you can get a solid feeling of where an investment will find major support and resistance levels. Any investment not matter if it’s a stock, commodity or currency, if the price is trading in the middle of a large range like this chart you should not be taking large positions because it almost becomes a 50/50 bet on the market which is not a good winning strategy unless you are very experienced at managing your trades and money.

If you are going to trade then you want to focus on the underlying trend and you do that by looking at the next larger time frame. For example: if you focus on trading the daily chart, then you must step back each week and review the weekly chart to be sure you are trading with the underlying trend which is up for the dollar right now.

Weekend Trading Ideas:
Tuesday morning we saw the SP500 gap lower and continue to sell off. Traders started panicking out of their long positions and we could see it using the intraday market internals charts, which I cover each morning in the pre-market trading videos. Me being a contrarian (buying into market fear, selling into market strength) I used that high level of fear in the market along with the expected light volume holiday week ahead as an excuse to book profits near the lows on SP500 using the SDS bear fund allowing us to profit from the falling market. I feel we are going to have some crazy moves on the markets going into year end and it should be a lot of fun if done correctly.

Trading in general is a very difficult task especially if you are doing it for a living and planning on using your monthly income to pay bills, salaries etc… We all know the stress which comes with trading and if do not have a solid trading strategy, rules and cannot properly manage yourself (emotions) then you are most likely running into problems like over-trading, getting shaken out of trades easily, and taking bigger risks than your account can handle. Each of these cause more traders to blow up their accounts and big up on trading.

I am giving away my book on how you can control your trades, money and emotions. This short and to the point guide is full of my trading techniques, tips and thoughts which will help you get a handle of your emotions turning the market noise into music.

Download Book: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

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Holiday Squeeze on the Dollar, Gold & Stocks

The past week and a half has been as choppy as it gets for the stocks market. Thankfully the herd mentality (fear & greed) stays the same. Understanding what others think and feel when involved in the market is one of the keys to making money consistently from the market. The crazy looking chart below I will admit is a little tough on the eyes, and I should have used red and green for holiday colors but green just was not going to work today so bear with me ?.

Market Internal Indicators – 10 minute, 7 day chart
This is a simple chart to read if you understand how to trade these market internal indicators (NYSE volume ratio, NYSE Advance/Decline line, and Total Put/Call ratio).

It shows and explains how I get a read on the overbought/sold conditions in the market. There are several other criteria needed to pull this trade off but it is these charts which tell me to start getting ready to take partial profits, buy or take short positions.

The top section shows the NYSE volume ratio line. When the green line spikes is means there are more sellers than buyers by a large amount and I call this fear. On the other hand when he red line spikes it shows everyone is chasing the price higher because they can’t stand the thought of missing another rally. I call this greed or panic buying. You buy into fear, sell/short into greed.

Important point to note though… We are getting another sell/short signal here (Wednesday) but knowing Friday will be light volume and knowing that light volume means higher prices, I think we should get a better opportunity to short this new down trend next week at possibly a higher level. The market may have a short squeeze in the next 2-3 days. Just so you know, a short squeeze is when the market breaks to the upside on light volume forcing the short positions to cover. This creates a pop in price, only for it to drop quickly after. But, if we get a pop with solid volume behind it, then we could just see the up trend start again and we would then look to play the long side. Only time will tell…

Rising Dollar & Gold – I Don’t Get It?
That is the question everyone seems to be asking this week. I think what we are seeing is straight forward. Traders/investors are selling Euros because of the issues overseas and are buying the dollar along with gold and silver.

Generally when the dollar raises gold drops, but they are both moving up in sync, and really I don’t see the problem with this as it has happened many times in the past. Currently I am neutral on gold and silver because of this situation though. I feel something is about to happen in a week or so that will change things in a big way.

Mid-Week Gold, Dollar & Stock Trading Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is now in a down trend and overbought here. It’s prime for a short position but with the holiday, light volume Friday, and most likely a follow through buying session on Monday I think its best to sit in cash without the stress of wondering what will happen on Monday. Just enjoy the holiday.

Recently members had a great short play locking in 2.2% gain on one of our positions this week as we shorted the market using the SDS inverse SP500 ETF. We also continue to hold two other positions with a 22 and 24% gain thus far and I think going into year end things are really going to heat up.

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Chris Vermeulen

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The Gold & Silver Play Has Gone To Greed?

The past few months it seems the gold and silver play has been getting a little crowded with everyone wanting to own gold. While I am a firm believer that these precious metals are a great hedge/investment long term, I can’t help but notice the price action and volume for both metals which looks to me like they are getting exhausted.

Silver – Daily Chart
The silver chart below shows an extremely high volume reversal candle in early November which typically leads to lower prices and some times a major change in the trend. That being said silver remains in an uptrend with the possibility of a bullish pennant forming. On the other hand there is a possible head and shoulders pattern forming. I will be looking for light volume sideways chop keeping a close eye for a possible neckline breakdown or a momentum thrust to the upside for a possible trade.

Gold – Daily Chart
Gold is forming a bullish and bearish pattern also giving us a mixed signal. I am currently neutral on gold and not really looking to take part until we get some type of clear price action.

US Dollar – 60 Minute Chart
The dollar has shown some strength recently. The US dollar play has been to take the short side, and a couple weeks ago we saw the dollar breakdown from yet another consolidation. It seems like everyone shorted the dollar yet again. That could have been a key pivot low for the dollar. On the weekly chart that bounce was off a major support trend line helping add some fuel to the rally I would think.

The chart below shows the recent rally and breakout to the upside. Currently the dollar is pulling back to test the breakout level (support). It will be interesting to see how this week unfolds. If the dollar bounces then we just may see metals break below their necklines to make another heavy volume drop.

Weekly Precious Metals Update:
In short, I have mixed feelings for gold and silver. Yes I think they are good long term plays, but after the run they have had it is also very possible a much deeper correction is about to take place and we may not see new highs for another year. That is a long time to have money sitting in an investment when it can be put to work in other investments. I know the herd (general public) is all head over heals in love with gold and silver which is one of the reasons why I think we are nearing a top if we didn’t already see it a couple weeks ago.

Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying to sell of go short metals… not yet anyways. They are both still in an up trend but some interesting things are unfolding which could cause big action in the coming weeks.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Bonds, Dollar, SP500 & Gold Have Changed Direction – Are You Ready?

There have been some major trend changes recently and it looks as though more investments are about to follow. The real question though is… Are You Ready To Take Advantage Of It?

It has been an exciting ride to say the least with the equities and metals bull market and the plummeting dollar. But it looks as though their time is up, or at least for a few weeks. Traders and investors will slowly pull money off the table to lock in gains or cut losses and re-evaluate the overall market condition before stepping back up to the plate and taking another swing.

Below are a few charts showing some possible money making trade ideas in the weeks ahead.

TBT 20+ Treasury Note Inverse Fund

This fund moves inverse to the price of the 20yr T.N’s also known as bonds. Looking at the chart you can see the recent reversal which took place. We had a great entry point shortly after this reversal took place using my low risk setup strategy.

Falling bond prices are considered to have a negative impact on equities because it implies that interest rates may start rising which means more investors will pull money out of stocks and put that money into a safe interest earning investment. You will typically see bonds change direction before equities. That being said the chart below is an inverse fund, so when this bond fund goes up, it means actually indicates bond yields are falling. I will admit these inverse funds really throw my brain for a loop at time… I prefer the good old days, buying long and selling short… so simple and clean…

UUP – US Dollar Index Fund

This fund moves with the dollar and allows equities traders to take advantage of currency trading. This chart below shows a possible trend reversal for the dollar. If the dollar continues to rally then it’s also a good sign that interest rates could be rising in the near future and it also means more downward pressure on equities.

SDS – Inverse SP500 Index Fund

These bear funds make it possible for traders and investors to profit from a falling market using a regular buy and sell strategy. They can also be traded in retirement accounts making them a golden investment for those willing to play a falling market.

This chart moves the same as the SP500 index only flipped. As the SP500 falls this fund rallies.

The trading strategy we just used to play the recent rally is the same strategy we will use during a bear market, but instead of trading the SPY, we are trading this fund.

It is important to note that while bull market rallies tend to drag out; bear markets typically have faster movements. Fear is much more powerful than greed which is why the stock market drops quicker than it goes up.

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund

Gold also looks to be topping and could actually be starting to form a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern.

Mid-Week Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, understanding inter-market analysis is crucial for traders/investors to know. Not understanding how they affect one other can be very costly in the long run. Remember that volatility and volume rise together at the end of a trend. You can view the recent volatility index (VIX) to see its price action also. Volatility changes also make for great low risk options trades if options are your thing. Focus on trading with the trend, bounces in a down trend are typically muted or trade sideways making is very difficult to make money buying in a falling stock market.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Dollar Continues to Control Gold, Oil & Equities

Over the past few months it seems as though everything has been tied to the dollar. Simple inter-market analysis makes it obvious that almost everything in the financial market eventually has an affect on stocks and commodities in some way. But recently trading has really been all about the dollar. If you watch the SP500 and gold prices you will notice at times virtually every tick the dollar makes directly affects the price and direction of gold and the SP500 index.

Let’s take a look at some charts to see the underlying trends and what they are telling us…

Dollar Index – Daily Chart

As you can see the trend is clearly down. Currently the dollar is trying to find a bottom as it bounces and pierces the previous high. The question everyone wants to know is if the dollar is about to rally and reverse trends or was Friday’s pierce of the October high just a shake out before the next leg down?

Back in late August the dollar pierced the July high on an intraday basis (shake out) just before prices dropped sharply. I think this could very easily happen again but when you see what gold volume is doing, it’s a different story.

Those who follow me closely know I focus on trading with the underlying trend, but manage my risk by trading smaller position sizes when the market has more uncertainty than normal with is what we are currently experiencing.

GLD – Gold Fund – Daily Chart

Gold and the dollar are almost inverse charts when comparing the two. Gold happens to be testing a key support level and its going to be interesting to see how the price holds up going forward. The one thing that has me concerned is the amount of selling taking place. The chart shows heavy volume selling and could be warning us of a possible trend change in the dollar, gold, oil and equities in the coming weeks.

Again the trend for gold is still up, so I would not be trying to short it at this time, rather look to buy into dips until the market trend proves us wrong. That being said, with the selling volume giving off a negative vibe and the fact that gold has rallied for such a long time, any new positions should be very small…

Crude Oil – Daily Chart

Oil looks to be forming a possible cup and handle pattern. If the Dollar continues to consolidate for another 1-3 weeks and breaks down, then we should see the price of oil trade in the range shown on the chart and eventually breakout to the upside. I have a $95-100 price target on oil if the dollar continues to trend down. Until we see some type of handle form here I am not trading oil.

SPY – SP500 Fund – Daily Chart

The equities market looks to have had one of those days which spooked the herd. Friday the price dropped triggering protective stops with rising volume. I was watching the intraday chart as the SP500 broke below the weeks low, and this triggered protective stops which can be seen on the 1 minute charts. In an uptrend I prefer watching stops get triggered because it means traders are getting taking out of long positions and most likely looking to play the short side. When the masses become bearish on the market, that’s when I start looking to play the upside in a bull market (buy the dip).

The chart below clearly shows the days when the shake outs/running of the stops took place. Most traders were exiting their positions and/or going short because the chart looked bearish. One thing I find that helps my trading is that if the chart looks rally scary (bearish) then I start looking at a shorter term time frame for a possible entry point to go long using price and volume analysis.

Weekend Market Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel the market is at a critical point which will trigger a very strong movement in the coming days or weeks. Because the dollar, gold, oil and the equities market have had such big moves I think trading VERY DEFENSIVE is the only way to play right now. That means trading small position sizes. Right now I am trading 1/8 – 1/4 the amount of capital I generally use on a trade. Meaning if I typically put $40,000 to work, right now I am only taking positions valued at $10,000.

Remember not to anticipate trend reversals by taking a position early. Continue to trade with the underlying trend with small positions or skip a couple setups if you feel strongly of a possible reversal. Once the trend reverses and the volume confirms, only then should you be playing the new trend. Picking tops can be expensive and stressful.

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Chris Vermeulen