Well, here we are with only hours left before the year is over. Virtually every investment is up other than the US dollar.
Not much has changed since my last gold market trends report. But I have provided some interesting charts that show us what is possible in the coming weeks for the dollar, gold and natural gas.
US Dollar Trend Analysis – Resistance Levels
The dollar has shown some strength in the past month. It was a no brainer trade for 2009. You were either long gold or short the dollar. The chart below shows the key resistance levels for the $USD. I have a feeling we are going to see the dollar test the 80 -81 levels before rolling over and heading south again.
If this happens then gold and silver will continue to pull back. I am actually hoping the dollar moves higher and gold drops back to test the $1000-1060 level. This would clear the way for gold and the dollar to continue with their longer term trends with increased momentum (dollar collapses, gold goes parabolic).
GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
The daily gold swing trading chart is really starting to look attractive for a buy signal. Depending on what the US dollar does in the coming days will set the tone for gold.
We could see gold start to rally starting tomorrow or it will become volatile and start to sell off sharply in the coming days. Right now we have very light volume so any moves/breakouts cannot be taken seriously or with a large position.
If the dollar starts to rally we could see the GLD ETF drop to the $97.50 – $103 level.
Spot Gold Trend Analysis – 18 Day, 1hr Bar Chart
Starting in 2010 I will be providing futures trading analysis and signals so I thought I would provide a chart of the spot gold trend I have been day trading over the holidays.
This may seem like I am going against my #1 trading Rule – Never Trade Against the Trend, but the trend changes depending on time frame and trading style you are using. In short, gold reversed very strong 18 days ago just as we anticipated it would. The selling momentum was so strong it made for excellent gold futures day trading setups which I took advantage of over the past 10 trading days.
The chart below is of the 100 ounce gold GC Feb 10 futures contract which I traded. The chart is shrunk down and does not show my setups, nor does the chart look very sexy, but it clearly shows the direction of the trend and the BIG SELLING VOLUME.
The table shows my recent trades and if you take a close look all of the trades I did were Short Trades. Because the momentum and trend is down on this time frame I only traded perfect short setups (profiting from gold as it loses value).
UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
UNG appears to be trading at resistance and starting to look like its rolling over. It did move above last weeks high which voids the reversal candle we had Tuesday and Thursday, or else it would have been a short setup for us. I don’t chase a trade, that’s my #2 rule, so I am waiting for a possible bounce here, test of resistance then another reversal back down.
Commodity & ETF Year End Trends:
In short, we continue the waiting game for more setups in the coming weeks as volatility and volume creep back into the market. The dollar and gold are currently trading at pivot points and no one knows which way to play them.
Trading futures run virtually 24 hours a day and have provided some excellent trading opportunities that I will be providing in the coming weeks for traders.
Natural Gas is trading at pivot point and looking ready for another move down.
Crude oil and the board market I feel will top out in the next 2-5 days but nothing worth putting any money on at this time.
I would like to thank everyone for their kind words and support over the past 12 months. I wish you all a happy and safe New Years!
Dec 27th 2009
Another holiday trading extravaganza!!!
Last week the market fell into its regular holiday tradition of light volume, as institutions and big traders enjoyed the holidays thus allowing prices to drift higher. We still have one more week of light trading volume before this year and holiday season is officially over.
Trading during low volume times is regularly misinterpreted. Many traders figure they should not be trading this time of the year but from my experience, the last two weeks of the year are amazing for short term swing plays or day trading. The market seems to be much more predictable when the large program traders are not involved.
Also the more speculative plays (small and mid cap stocks) always seem to out perform as buyers bid the prices higher into the light selling volume. This is most likely why we are seeing the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indexes making some nice gains of late.
Take a look at the charts…
Broad Market & NASDAQ Low Volume Rally
Stock Market Trend
GLD ETF Trading – Daily Chart
Gold prices broke down as expected in early December and are now nearing a possible bottom. The past 3 weeks have provided some very exciting day trades shorting spot gold prices. In the next few weeks I will be starting to provide more spot gold charts and intraday price action for all the international traders and futures traders ?
I did not provide the chart of silver as it trades very similar to gold. When the time comes I will provide detailed analysis for entry and exit points for members.
Gold Market Trend
Crude Oil USO Trend Trading
USO fund had a very nice pullback in early December and I pointed out a spec play at $35.50 with targets set at $37, $38 and $40. So far the first two profit taking targets have been reached.
Sorry for all the lines on the chart but sometimes it’s the only way to remember where all the crucial levels are for trading pivot points.
Oil Trend Trading
Natural Gas UNG Trend Trading
Natural gas trades like a bucking bronco. It’s a tough ride if you do not understand market psychology and apply strict money management to your positions.
Last weeks price action closed with a bearish candle after testing resistance twice. We could get a short trade this week depending on what happens from here. Let’s keep our eyes open for a low risk setup.
Natural Gas Trend
Market Trends Trading Conclusion:
This year has been fantastic for making money, but next year will most likely be much more difficult if we see the market top and head south or trend sideways. The market topping is not an event; rather a process and trend following systems will start having more losing trades than winners as the market momentum shifts from up, to sideways then down.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying I think its going to roll over and head south, cause quite frankly no one knows what its going to do from this point forward. This is the reason we are in cash and patiently awaiting new low risk opportunities to place our money. The joy of trading with technical analysis is that you don’t care which direction the markets go because the analysis, if done correctly, allows you to profit in all market conditions using different trading strategies.
The board market, in my opinion, is way overbought due to the holiday rally. But we must remember there is another low volume week as we approach New Years and this could extend the rally more. Smaller trading positions should be used until we enter the New Year and volume steps back into the market.
Gold and silver are in a short term down trend and trading near a resistance level. We could see prices drop quickly or rally from here. So we are letting things unfold before making a commitment.
Oil continues to move higher and last weeks weakening US dollar helped give oil a boost.
Natural gas is trading at resistance and looks ready to head back down. The daily and 30 minute chart did not setup a signal to short Natural Gas, but it was very close.
As usual, I will update on the market and provide daily updates and trades to members.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-27 22:43:542014-03-10 10:46:44Holiday Gold, Oil and Index Trend Trading
Dec 26th, 2009 – Gold Trends
How did your Dad pay his college tuition with a part-time summer job? Why does it take two breadwinners to support a family these days? What with all the recent fuss about gold?
The answer to these seemingly unrelated questions have a common answer.
Cause and Effect
Governments have a curious tendency to run deficits; and when they do, they have two options.
1) Decrease disbursements
This usually takes the form of spending cuts. Public servants are laid off, social programs lose funding and government bureaucracies are consolidated. Politicians typically consider spending cuts a last resort and have a dubious record of fiscal discipline in this regard.
2) Increase receipts
This usually takes the form of tax hikes and loans from foreign creditors. Politicians frown upon this option as well, especially during an election year.
There is also third, sneakier option that you may not hear about on the campaign trail or in state-of-the-union address.
3) Monetize the difference
This simply means governments fire up the printing press and create enough cash to cover the budget deficit. No cuts, no taxes. Needless to say, politicians love this option and have abused it for decades.
So what is the effect of money creation?
“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate secretly and unobserved an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” -John Maynard Keynes
There are three things guaranteed in nations with fiat currencies: death, taxes, and inflation. Inflation is, by definition, expansion of the money supply. As the newly printed money circulates in the economy, the value of the old money is diluted. In other words, as freshly created dollars – conjured up by elected officials to balance the budget- filters into the money supply, it steals value from pre-existing dollars. That means every dollar printed by the government appropriates purchasing power from every dollar in existence. From cash in your wallet to money in your bank account and dollars held by foreign creditors, all money in the system is indiscriminately deprived of value.
Think of inflation as a hidden tax or a trade-off. When governments create money to engage in aggressive foreign policy, enact socialized health care and slash taxes, citizens pay in the form of inflation. Most of us, however, are oblivious to the root cause of inflation and tend to ignore its devastating effects.
The by-product of all this excess money in circulation is higher prices. As money loses purchasing power it takes more cash to buy things. Food, rent, gas, tuition, movie tickets and anything else denominated in dollars becomes more expensive. Even wages and salaries increase, but not at the rate of consumer goods. As a result, a larger portion of our income is allocated towards basic expenses like groceries and mortgage payments and less money is available for discretionary spending. Inflation gives us the illusion of wealth. Our stocks, houses and wages may be appreciating from a nominal standpoint, but relatively speaking, we are become poorer.
This explains why even though we are being paid more, our standard of living is plummeting. Mom and Dad have to work full time to make ends meet. Summer earnings become insufficient to cover tuition and students are forced to take out massive student loans. The benefactors are the politicians who get their hands on the hot-off-the-press cash while it still has full value. By the time the new money gains velocity and consumer prices rise sharply they are long out of office collecting their pension checks.
This vicious cycle has perpetuated itself for decades and is reaching a tipping point in many countries. The United States in particular has raised the stakes with bailouts, stimulus packages and promises to insure virtually every American mortgage and bank account. Of course, tax hikes and spending cuts are not funding these bold initiatives; the monopoly-money maker at the Fed is.
Unless the fundamental laws of economics are magically repelled, inflationary pressures will ultimately engulf deflationary ones. Unfortunately, no nation is immune from the cause and effect nature of economics. Governments who venture away from the principals of sound money and create grotesque amounts of unbacked cash are locking their currency into a long-term downward trajectory.
Hyper inflation has many precedents in modern society and has crippled a myriad of robust economies.
Gold Holds Value
Gold is a dynamic metal. Aside from being industrially useful, gold has a variety of attributes that naturally lend itself as a medium of exchange. Gold is easily divisible, fungible, has a superb value to weight ratio and never decays or rusts. It is rare, difficult to mine, nearly impossible to counterfeit, and has a magnificent track record of holding its value.
In fact, according to Jeff Clark at Casey Research, in 1935, when an ounce of gold was worth $35, you could buy:
• a top-quality tailored suit for $19.75 – or 0.56 ounces of gold
• a family car for $500 – or 14.3 ounces of gold
• a house for $7,150 – or 204.2 ounces of gold
Today, with an ounce of gold worth north of $1000 an ounce:
• that same top-quality, tailored suit costs $600 – or 0.56 ounces of gold
• the family car now costs $15,000 – or 14.2 ounces of gold
• the house averages $181,100* – or 204.6 ounces of gold*
• *average house price from 2008 / gold at 2008 price of $880/ounce
If your grandfather locked $7,000 USD – the approximate value of an early 20th century home- in a vault when he was young, the state-run printing press would relentlessly dilute the purchasing power of his saved money. 75 years later, you would be hard-pressed to find a decent used car for the same amount. Conversely, if he instead purchased 200 one-ounce gold coins with his $7000 in cash and locked it in the same vault, his hard earned wealth would be remarkably preserved. With proceeds from your grandfathers gold coins you could buy an average American house, just like he could have back in 1935.
Today, gold’s inverse relationship with the USD continues. As money creation continues to destroy the value of USD’s, gold casually mirrors the decline. In essence, the fuss about gold is really just a reaction to drastic government spending programs.
Implications, Considerations and Recommendations
The prospects of gold look increasingly bullish.
• Gold as a hedge against inflation is becoming more mainstream. It is only a matter of time before inflation rears its ugly head.
• Central banks are expected to be net buyers of gold in 2010 for the first time in decades.
• Gold production is in a state of perpetual decline. Old mines are closing at alarming rate while capital for new mines has dried up. New deposits are being reported less frequently and at lower grades.
• China is allowing and even encouraging its citizens to buy physical gold.
• Ben Bernake occasionally refers to his mystical exit strategy yet refuses to budge interest rates. All sign point to more stimulus, more bailouts and more government spending.
This all adds up to gold turning the corner in 2010 and cementing its bull-market status.
In the context of recent events, any day trader will tell you that unprecedented interventionism by world leaders has spelled unprecedented volatility in stocks and commodities. From a macro-economic standpoint, we expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. Technical analysis and experienced advice is vital to playing today’s gold market profitably. Opportunities are everywhere.
As gold continues to march higher at the expense of the USD, there are many ways to profit. Purchasing physical gold bullion, gold ETFs and gold funds are a great way to insure your wealth against over-zealous elected officials. For even better returns, consider leveraged plays like gold producers and explorers. Regardless of the platform, it is highly recommended that you have a portion of your portfolio exposed to gold in these uncertain times. And if you want to pleasantly surprise your future grand kids, please, don’t bury stacks on 20’s in a time capsule.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-27 18:56:152014-03-10 10:47:04Gold Trends: The Mirage of Wealth
It’s been a great year as we head into the final few trading sessions. The past several weeks the indexes have not done much of anything which is why we are now in cash.
I feel as though the market is about to change direction abruptly in the coming days or weeks. I feel this way for several reasons:
1. NYSE, Dow Jones, S&P500 are all drifting higher into resistance levels on the 10 day, 60 minute charts. Light volume tends to favor higher price hence the reason for the holiday rally. 2. Broad market momentum waves are topping 3. These same indexes are trading at resistance levels from early 2008 4. Money flow is indicating large institutions have been big sellers over the past 3 weeks. 5. US economy I think is worse than most want to think
So take a look at these 10 day charts which clearly show resistance and support trend lines. Each, if broken will lead to a sharp decline. I used ETF’s as substitutes for the indexes.
Dow Jones – DIA – Top Chart SPY – S&P500 – Middle Chart NYSE – Bottom Chart
Stock Market Trend
Stocks have started to decouple for the US dollar in recent days so I am not focusing much on what affect the dollar will have on the above indexes.
That being said, the US dollar (UUP etf fund) is at a pivotal point. It’s either going to bounce off the trend line support level (blue line) and send gold back down to test the previous low, or breakdown through the support trend line. A falling dollar will give gold some power to muscle its way back up to the next short term support level.
Dollar and Gold Trends
Yesterday (Tuesday Dec 22nd) we said gold stocks and silver prices would move higher. I consider gold stocks and silver my leading indicators for the price of gold. Today (Wednesday Dec 23rd) gold stocks and silver shot higher – out performing gold by 7:1 which is very bullish for gold.
Crude oil had a large rally today sending the USO oil fund surging 3.5%, confirming a bounce off our support level 2 weeks ago. It could be warming up for another rally.
Natural gas opened lower but put in a strong session as it trended up all day. This also looks very strong and if prices breakout and follow through next week natural gas could be making a real rally for once.
This is a short trading week with Thursday only a half trading session and Friday being closed for Christmas/Holidays. We will not have any low risk setups this week and because we are sitting in cash, let’s take this time to enjoy our family, friends and pets ?
Get my Trading Charts, Reports and Signals:
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-23 18:37:052014-03-10 10:47:3110 Days of Indexes and Commodities
December 20, 2009 Gold Trends:
Gold has been leading the market for almost a year. Last week gold and gold stocks were trading at support looking ready to bottom but as you will see in my charts below, both broke support on heavy volume.
With gold now under performing the stocks market, I get the feeling we could see the broad market top. Topping is a process and after this strong climb I figure it will be choppy (tough to trade). Much like the price action on the Dow and S&P500 the past month, but this time it will be on a larger scale.
From a technical stand point the major indexes are trading at a key resistance zone from Oct 2008. This has been an amazing year for trading but I think the time has come for a correction or another melt down depending on how you view the US economy. It does not really matter which happens as we can play both directions.
As far as the fundamentals go, well the US economy in my opinion is scary. All I know is that if the markets start to melt down everyone better make BIG money on the way down because a severe correction will cripple the county as millions more will become unemployed. I am concerned that current recession may turn into a depression.
‘If’ we get another stock market meltdown, literally every asset class will go down with it. The only difference I think will be the trend of gold. Everyone has started to buy gold or at least thought about buying some.
‘If’ a meltdown occurs I think gold will go down in price at first with everything else, but if we are headed for another market collapse EVERYONE will turn to gold as the safe haven, triggering a massive parabolic spike straight up which could last years.
Enough of this negative talk, Lets take a look at the short term gold trends.
Gold Trend – Daily & 60 Minute Chart
The trend of gold broke down from the red rising channel a couple weeks back as expected. We were taking profits at the $115 level.
The more recent price action shows two technical breakdowns on the daily chart and the small 60 minute overlaid chart. The daily breakdown crashed through our support trend line and the 60 minute chart shows the breakdown below the previous low. The price is currently trading at resistance and the odds now favor lower prices.
Silver Trend – Daily Chart
Silver is trading at support and has yet to break the previous low. I think we will see this happen in the next few days.
Crude Oil Trend – Daily Chart
Oil had a great setup last week with many readers profiting from the oversold bounce off support which I pointed out on the daily chart last week. When buying into an oversold setup like this I scale in over 2-3 days in case prices dip lower as the selling dissipates. Average price was $35.75 and sold at first target of $37 for a 3.5% profit. Many of us still hold a core position with a tight stop.
The 60 minute chart shows this play and how the price popped once the sellers were cleared out.
Natural Gas Trading Trend – Daily Chart
Trend lines provide excellent levels for support and resistance and this chart is a perfect example of that. Not much to say about this chart other than UNG is trading at resistance and volume is big. This tells me we could see lower prices from here or some sideways price action first.
Natural Gas Trends
Broad Market Index – Dow Jones ETF – Daily Chart
In short, the market is starting to correct as we thought. It still has more to go before testing support. But because this week is a holiday week, volume will be light and like volume favors higher prices. So we could see the highs tested or sideways action.
From looking at the monthly, weekly and daily charts of the major indices I think the market is about to have a sharp correction. If we get a breakdown then we are headed to the next support level which is about 9% down from the recent high in the DIA etf fund.
Major Index trends
Gold Trend and Technical Conclusion:
The trend of gold has been very predictable over the recent months and this correction seems to be text book pullback. I see the short term trend of gold still down but the longer and more powerful underlying trend is up. Let’s wait for the price of gold and silver to sort itself out and wait for low risk entry points before jumping back in.
Crude oil is in pinball mode. It’s just bouncing around between support and resistance levels now. Not much we can do but wait for another setup.
Natural gas is trading at resistance and if we get the proper price action in the next few days we could have a great short trade. Only time will tell.
The broad market trend is looking and feeling very toppy. A lot of money has been moving out of stocks the past 4 weeks and January could be a roller coaster. Last week I exited all my positions except XTR.TO (Energy and Financial dividend fund) which many of us took a position in late February and first week of March. I have set a tight stop and hoping to get the 4th dividend payout before it corrects.
I want to note that I am not going to be shorting the market until the bear trend is definitive. This could be 2-3 months down the road still. But after a great year of trading and the market and economy looking the way it does I am happy to be sitting in cash.
Receive my Free Weekly Gold Trend and Market Analysis:
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-21 01:18:192014-03-10 10:47:47Gold Trends, Hot Commodities and the Major Indexes, Trade the Trend!
Dec 16th, 2009
It’s been a great week so far. Stocks and commodities are moving as expected from my weekend trading report. I like to see the market unfold in a calm collected manner.
The US dollar has made a nice move in the past couple weeks. Although it has broken out of its down channel I think there is a lot of short covering going on making this bounce more powerful than others. Also it is important to note that it is near resistance which could dampen things around the $77-77.5 level. If the dollar heads back down I expect gold to start making a move back up which it started to do Wednesday.
Below are my thoughts and charts about what I think is unfolding for both stocks and commodities.
DIA – Dow Jones Index Fund
The DIA fund has performed just the way I thought it would. Push to a new high then sell down. Generally I would expect this move down to test my support level or trade near that level, but because we are heading into the holiday season and volume is light the market has a natural tendency to drift higher. I’m sure this is why it’s still trading near the high.
This new yearly high was enough to suck in breakout traders and only time will tell if they get follow through or get shaken out of this trade also. Oh, the joys of buying a breakout in an over bought market condition.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
Gold broke down sharply from its trend channel and has settled into a support zone. Wednesday we saw a nice bounce but the question is, is this a rally or a sucker’s bounce?
I’ve found the best setups and moves occur after an ABC retrace. The black lines on the chart show exactly that type of price action. These retraces shake out most short term traders before starting a new rally. There is a thin dotted blue line showing a possible resistance trend line which would need to be broken after the ABC retrace pattern has formed if we want a low risk setup with a sizable win/loss ratio.
Gold ETF Newsletter
SLV – Silver ETF Trading Fund
Silver is in the same boat as its big sister (Yellow Gold). We just need to wait for a high probability setup to present its self before putting any of our hard earned money to work.
Silver Trading Fund
USO – Crude Oil Fund
USO has provided some great short term gains for anyone who used my analysis from my Sunday night report. The quote and chart below covers my thoughts for USO.
Sunday night report: “Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.”
Oil ETF Fund
UNG – Natural Gas Trading Fund
Natural gas is still very much a speculative play as everyone thinks they will make huge money from this commodity.
This means two things in my opinion:
1. It’s still headed lower
2. After rallies the sellers jump back in.
UNG is trading near resistance and it could provide a great shorting opportunity in the coming days.
Natural Gas UNG fund
ETF Trading Conclusion:
Although it’s been a quite week in the market, I have really enjoyed it. Not sure if it is related to everything unfolding in a controlled manner or the holiday season nearing, or maybe both?
November and December have been quiet for our ETFs but I know we are on the verge of either a large move up or down in the coming weeks. Let’s watch the market and funds unfold and see if we can get another trade or two in before year end.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-16 23:01:062014-03-10 10:48:53Stocks and Commodities Are Trading Predictably
December 13, 2009
The past three weeks have been interesting to watch as the Dow (DIA ETF) has broadened causing traders to be shaken in and out of positions. Commodities have been under pressure as the US dollar has risen. Below are some charts of these investments and what I think could happen in the next couple weeks.
DIA – Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see the broadening formation is bearish as it results in a short term pullback. This type of price action is what frustrates breakout and novice traders. As traders jump into positions once the previous high is broken, they hope for a rally. Instead the market briefly moves higher then reverses and moves down to penetrate the previous pivot low. This is where breakout traders place their stops and as the market knows this, it obliges by moving below this level to shake out these traders before it rallies again.
That being said, it looks like stocks could make a new high this week, just enough to suck in more short term breakout traders before rolling over once again to test a deeper support level. A pullback to the $99-100 level would make for a great buy point.
DIA ETF Trade
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
The strengthening dollar is putting pressure on precious metals with gold testing the first support level. Depending on what the dollar does in the coming days we could see gold test the second support level.
In my opinion gold can test the second support level without triggering any major sell signals for traders and investors. The trend will still be up and it is important to know the horizontal support level is more important than a trend line support level.
GLD Gold Trend
SLV – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver is in the same boat at gold. Only time will tell if we get a bounce or a further test lower. Either way, the underlying trend is still up and we will be able trade it.
SLV Silver Trading
USO – Oil Exchange Traded Fund
Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.
This is a high risk type of play which I am not taking part in. But I do find it fun to track plays like this for educational reasons.
How to trade Oil
UNG – Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund
The natural gas fund is a touchy topic with so many traders. I get emails every day asking why I trade UNG because of the contango and the fact that so many people have lost money with it; they don’t want to touch it again. My answer is very simple, it works perfectly fine for short term trading which lasts 1-20 days. “If it works, Don’t Fix It”.
I do agree UNG is tougher than other ETFs to trade, but it still makes money and that is what our goal is.
Anyways natural gas has found some support and is bouncing around. We could see it trend sideways or up until a test of our blue resistance trend line is reached. From there we can asses the situation for a possible trade.
The underlying trend is down on the monthly and weekly charts so do not get too excited about going long anytime soon.
UNg Natural Gas Trade
ETF Trading Conclusion:
Overall the market feels a little top heavy and the price action on the charts are saying the same thing. My short term indicators are telling me the Dow (DIA fund) is over bought and ready for a couple days of selling. With any luck we will see a test of support which will flush out most short term traders this week, then a nice low volume rally going into Christmas. On the other hand, the market has been holding up well and prices could continue to drift higher from here. If that is the case we simply continue to hold our current long positions and enjoy the ride.
Silver and gold are testing support levels and if the market continues to rally here, I figure precious metals will follow. But if we see stocks pull back and test support, then we will most likely see the metals pull back further also.
Crude oil has formed a scary looking chart as it flushes out traders on this recent drop. My general rule for spec plays is to buy when the chart looks scary, but is trading at multiple support levels. It is very difficult to buy at these levels but as my good buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says, “Buy when they Cry, Sell when it’s Loud”. Meaning buy when everyone is panicking out of their positions, and sell when everyone is buying into the move usually seen by high volume levels and much higher prices.
Natural Gas is jumping around like crazy. We continue to wait for a tradable price pattern to form in conjunction with a support or resistance level to help put the odds more on our side.
If you would like to receive my Free ETF Trading Newsletter:
December 9th, 2009
Etf trading has made it so easy for traders and investors to get maximum exposure to the entire market without the high fees of mutual funds and manager. There are now etfs covering almost every investment type whether it’s stocks, indexes, sectors, commodities, bonds, real estate, currencies etc…
In this short report I will quickly show a few charts on what is happening for precious metals and energy.
HUI – Gold Stock
This monthly chart of the gold stocks index you can see how easy it is to trade the market and avoid large sell offs when using technical analysis. Currently gold stocks are in a bull market, testing the 2008 highs. Until we are proven wrong buying stocks after a pullback is a winning strategy.
Gold Stocks Trading
Trading the GLD ETF
We have been in the GLD etf for a few months as we ride this bull to new highs. This chart clearly shows how buying dips in a bull market can really pay off. I do have certain criteria which must be met before buying dips so I know the odds are in my favor.
Gold ETF Alert
ETF Trade Silver
Silver along with gold and oil are looking ready for an oversold bounce. I don’t think prices will jump and rally higher right out of the gate but eventually I feel the will head higher.
SLV Trading Newsletter
Crude Oil Fund Trade
Crude oil looks prime for the picking. It is currently oversold and testing 2 support levels. The downside momentum is still strong so this selling could last another 1-2 days but I’m expecting it to soon.
This is not a low risk setup. This is more of a short term aggressive contrarian play. For those of you who like heart pounding plays ?
USO Fund Trade
Natural Gas Fund Chart
Natural gas has been taking its time to bottom. Virtually every bottom picker has been burned this year. I am starting to hear everyone get more bearish on it again which is great! It should bottom any day then! LOL….
Seriously it cannot get much more bearish for gas. We don’t have enough space to store it and companies are finding more natural gas in the ground every day. Because it sounds like a terrible investment it must be getting close to a bottom. If this is the start of a flat basing pattern, then I expect it could drag out for a few months before actually making a nice move up.
UNG Nat Gas Trend
Dow Jones DIA ETF
The Dow looks similar to gold and silver. I feel we are ready for a 1-2 day bounce then we go a little lower to shake traders out of the market before heading higher.
DIA ETF Trading
ETF Trading Conclusion:
Gold stocks and the broad market are in a bull market. The recent pullback has many traders worried. I think this an opportunity to bet into some positions before the next rally. Buying the dips in a bull market is a low risk trade until proven wrong. I think we still have more of a pullback yet but then we could have a very profitable year end Xmas rally.
Natural Gas is just bumping along bottom I think. Not expecting any trade for a few weeks anyways.
Crude Oil looks like its ready for a move whether it is a 1-2 day bounce or the start of a new leg higher. If you loot at late Sept you can see USO broke down on heavy volume shaking most traders out of their positions just before the next leg higher, and this is what I feel it is doing now. Only time will tell.
Let’s see how the second half of this week unfolds.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-09 23:23:572014-03-10 10:48:54ETF Trading Gold Oil and the Index
Gold is making a come back as of this writing. the US$ is weakening. Great to see.
Silver and Oil continue to sell down as momentum from Friday’s selling carries over.
Natural gas is having another bounce today on big volume. It is trying to bottom down here but we have seen all bounces and rallies halted as sellers push prices lower.
Last week we locked in 11% return on a portion of our GLD trade. Our ANI.V trade is still doing very well as it is consolidating the large move up in the past few months and continues to drill test holes for gold.
DFSH has released a thorough overview of the numerous commercial opportunities it is currently pursuing . This information is precisely what I was given four weeks ago at a 3 hour briefing with the CEO in Florida.
Page 13 of this document states:
“We have been notified by SOMO (the Iraq State Oil Marketing Organization) of a crude oil contract (60 million barrels) to the American Refinery Group and two Fuel Oil Contracts (500K & 3 million MT)”
To put it bluntly, this is a staggering amount of oil that the company has been allocated from Iraq to broker. The fees that DFSH will earn from closing a single contract will be very exciting. I know they are working on some financing to put these contracts together as they require a security deposit (performance bond) for each contract. The contracts are worth several hundred million dollars the deposits are large.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-07 16:45:012009-12-07 16:45:01Monday Dec 7th – Afternoon Update
Dec 6th, 2009
The first half of last week started out strong with stock and precious metal ETFs moving higher. The week ended with less certainty of direction. The energy sector underperformed the market with crude oil and natural gas moving lower.
Below are some ETF charts showing where the broad market and commodities are trading with some analysis showing what could transpire going into the year end holiday season.
DIA ETF – Daily Trading Chart
The DIA ETF that I am using to represent the Dow Industrial Average looks to be over bought and ready for a pullback. The broadening formation indicates volatility is rising and that the bulls are losing control. This pattern occurs in all time frames and in stocks, commodities and exchange traded funds. Remember this pattern when looking at charts as it could save you some money.
Using simple analysis we can see where the Dow is likely to test. With any luck this could happen quickly and be followed by a nice low volume rally going into to the holiday.
DIA ETF Trading
GLD Gold Exchange Traded Fund – Daily & Weekly Charts
Gold had a huge rally the first half of the week but gave it all back and then some on Friday. I have been warning about this sharp profit taking correction for a few days making sure everyone had tightened their stops or started to trim their positions. We locked in a nice 11.9% gain on Friday as our stop for GLD was triggered.
GLD fund is likely to trade in one of two scenarios this week:
1. Move side-ways after last week’s sell off
2. Or continue moving down as investors and short term traders review Friday’s action and place their sell orders for Monday.
Take a look at the small weekly chart which is located within the daily chart below. We had a very big volume week and a reversal candle indicating a shift in momentum. If we are lucky this could be a quick pause before another move up, but I am thinking gold will need several weeks to gain its footing. Only time will tell, and either way we will be ready.
GLD Exchange Trade Fund Alerts
SLV Fund – Daily & Weekly Charts
Silver had a sharp pullback with gold on Friday but because silver did not have investors tripping over each other trying to buy it like gold, the sell off was much more controlled. Silver breached the lower trend channel line but closed back above it to end the week.
Silver is trading at the lower level of its trend channel and at a support level. There is a good change it will bounce Monday or Tuesday. But until we see what gold is doing at the open Monday morning I would not be jumping into anything at this point.
The weekly chart shows a reversal candle signaling strong selling pressure and this is the reason I would not be buying here. Let’s watch for a few days and see what happens.
SLV Trading Analysis
USO Oil Fund – Weekly Charts
Crude oil has been weak the past 2 months as it drifts sideways from the October breakout. Not much to say here other than let’s wait for some action and a low risk setup.
USO Oil Fund
UNG Natural Gas Fund – 60 Minute and Weekly Chart
This year I think natural gas has taken more money from traders than any other fund. Virtually everyone has been burned by this extremely over sold commodity. The 60 minute chart shows three resistance levels. But if you combine all of them there is significant resistance from $8.80 – $9.25. That is the test of the August lows.
We reached the August lows and that is what triggered the bounce and short covering rally 2 weeks ago. We have now seen prices slip below that level on rising volume which is bearish. With prices below this major resistance level I think we will see sellers step in on each bounce to push prices back down.
UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
Stocks and Commodity ETF Trading Conclusion:
The broad stock market looks ready for a small correction. That being said the tape does not lie and we continue to see money flow into stocks which is why the dow, sp500 and Russell 2000 are holding up well. These crossed signals are the reason money/position management is so important for traders. Scaling in and out of positions during oversold and overbought conditions is crucial for pulling money out of the market consistently.
I do this by tightening my stop to lock in a gain on 25-50% of my position, while holding a core position in the event prices continue to rise. This way I make a premium on part of my trade and have my stop moved to break even or higher for the core position allowing it some wiggle room as prices consolidate before the next leg higher.
Gold and silver could go either way quickly this week. We have locked in some good money last week and now we hold our core position. From here I expect the gold and silver to play out in one of three ways:
1. Prices continue higher and we ride our core positions for larger gains.
2. Price continues to correct and we get another low risk entry point to add to our core position, then prices rally.
3. Or, precious metals have a melt down and we take a small 5% gain on our core position.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas are not tradable at this time. We need to see more price action before a high probability setup will develop. Let’s watch and wait these out some more.
If you would like to receive my Free Weekly ETF Trading Newsletter visit my website:
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.png00adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2009-12-06 14:28:202014-03-10 10:49:38Do Stocks and Commodity ETFs Take a Pause or Melt Down?