The Triple Time Frame Breakout in Gold and Nat Gas

We have been waiting for gold to breakout above the 2008 high for almost 2 years. These charts show we are slowly working our way there.

Gold Stocks Index – The Leading Indicator for Gold Bullion
I watch the price of gold stocks very closely because when there is large divergence from the price action of gold bullion I can get in a trade before the general public does.
Tuesday we saw gold stocks put in a powerful rally yet gold bullion did not move much. This told me there was going to be some positive action Wednesday in gold and there was a very nice rally, indeed.

This monthly chart of gold stocks shows a monthly breakout which is exciting to see. Most rallies last between 3-6 months on a breakout like this. That being said we could still have another 1-3 months of sideways price action as gold bullion tries to clear out the over head supply.

If you follow Australian gold stocks check out http://www.sharefilter.com/ for more info.

Gold Trading Breakout Signal

Gold Trading Breakout Signal

Gold Bullion – Monthly Timing Chart
The gold chart clearly shows that we are near a major breakout. You can also see the similar price action before the last major breakout which is encouraging.

Gold Breakout Trading Newsletter

Gold Breakout Trading Newsletter

GLD Gold Bullion Trust – Weekly Timing Chart
Gold has broken out of is bullish pennant and now trying to break through the overhead resistance. So far the price action is strong but do not expect a breakout instantly. The market always has a way of dragging things out much longer than one may anticipate.

Gold Bullion Trading Breakout

Gold Bullion Trading Breakout

GLD Gold Bullion ETF – Daily Timing Chart
The daily chart clearly shows that if we continue to form a bull flag or some type of pennant formation it major breakout could takes weeks from here.

Gold ETF Breakout Trading

Gold ETF Breakout Trading

Natural Gas – Weekly Timing Chart
Several weeks’ back I pointed out that Natural Gas was extremely over sold and at 10 year lows which was a good point to start scaling into a position. This high risk setup has paid off well for those following actively trading the over bought and over sold conditions with me.

We now have a breakout and are waiting for a low risk entry point to buy more natural gas.

Natural Gas Breakout Signal Trading

Natural Gas Breakout Signal Trading


Crude Oil – Weekly Timing Chart
Crude oil continues to trade within a set of bull wedges making it difficult to get a low risk setup. I trade over bought, over sold and trends, not sideways/trend less investments which USO has been in my eyes for a few months.

Soon enough it will flash a buy or sell signal for me and we will be active again with USO and other oil funds.

Crude Oil Bul Market Trading

Crude Oil Bul Market Trading

Weekly Market Timing Conclusion:
Overall our precious metal stocks and bullion trades are doing well. We continue to wait for a breakout, hopefully to the upside, but have protection stops in place to lock in gains if prices drop on us.

The energy sector has been tricky because oil is trend less and natural gas has gone straight up. Again my focus is on low risk, high probability trades and I don’t chase or make trades when there is nothing to trade.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports like this please visit my website: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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HUI, GLD, SLV, USO, UNG, SPY Trading Charts

The market continues to whipsaw traders out of positions as volatility rises. I have put together a few charts to show you where each of our commodities are trading along with the SPX (SP500 index).

My Gold Stock Breakout Model – Monthly Chart
I use this chart to keep my big picture trades on the right side of gold. I found that gold stocks tend to lead the price of gold so watching this gold stock index on the monthly, weekly and daily charts can provide me with short term tops and bottoms for trading gold bullion, GLD or DGP exchange traded funds.

The monthly chart clearly shows the rally in stocks has now sold back down to my resistance trend line. If we do not get a rally this week in gold stocks, then I think we could see gold trade sideways or down for several months.

HUI Gold Stock Newsletter

HUI Gold Stock Newsletter

GLD Gold ETF Trading Fund – Newsletter
The daily gold bullion fund shows the recent price action and what I think could happen in the coming weeks. In the past couple days gold has moved to a short term support level where I think we could see buyers step in.

We took some profits near the high and continue to hold a core position until we have another technical breakdown or new setup to add more to the position again.

GLD Gold ETF Trading Newsletter

GLD Gold ETF Trading Newsletter

SLV Silver ETF Trading Fund – Newsletter
Silver is in the same boat as gold. We have taken some profits and are still holding a core position with protective stops in place just incase the market does head lower from here.

Silver SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

Silver SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

USO Crude Oil Trading Fund – Newsletter
Crude oil started to bleed lower last week as the price sliced through the multi month support trend line. Volume shot up as stop orders get triggered on the way down. We finally have a move outside of the pennant formation that has been in place for several months. Now we can start looking for a low risk setup for trading crude oil again.

Crude Oil USO Trading Newsletter

Crude Oil USO Trading Newsletter

UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund – Newsletter
Natural gas has really come back to life. I mentioned on September 2nd that natural gas (UNG) looked like a buy between $9 – $9.50 and it has now rallied 25% since that point. But stepping back and looking at the chart we can see resistance is hovering over head between the $12 – $12.25.

I may send out a setup for a short play if we get one but I feel the heavy sell off in August was the final wave down, flushing out traders. Speculative traders seem to have moved into natural gas and I think they will continue to buy it for some time. Pullbacks will be sharp but most likely followed with more buying as we enter the cooler months of the year.

Natural Gas UNG Trading Newsletter

Natural Gas UNG Trading Newsletter

SPX Index Trading – Active Trading Partners
I thought that I would show a quick picture of the SPX because it shows the psychology of traders and how it repeats it’s self over and over. The black and green waves are virtually the same patterns.

I feel as though the market is ready for a larger pullback than what we had in June/July but my focus will be to buy in the oversold dips and lighten my positions in overbought conditions (scaling in and out of positions) until the trend confirms it has reversed.

SPX SP500 Trading Newsletter

SPX SP500 Trading Newsletter

My Market Trading Newsletter Conclusion:
Gold stocks are pulling back and precious metals continue to move with the overall market action. I do feel that gold and silver will break this relationship and start to move higher in the coming months but until that happens I remain cautious with my positions tightening my stops.

Crude oil is starting to come alive and I am now looking for some low risk setups for energy related funds. Last week’s technical breakdown could provide us with a big move in the coming months.

Natural Gas continues to hold up but is now trading near resistance. Depending how many spec traders there are still lingering around (as most lost their shirts in the recent months), will dictate how much higher natural gas will move. The 25-30% rally in the past month has been very powerful and this could be just the beginning. I am now waiting for another setup that could be a long or a short trade depending on what happens next.

If you would like to get my Bi-Weekly Trading Reports via email please visit my websites at: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com for commodities and www.ActiveTradingPartners.com for Stock Trading.

I hope everyone had a great weekend!
Chris Vermeulen

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DIA, UUP, GLD, SLV & XLE Funds Shift Momentum?

Today we had a reversal day for the broad market, us dollar, precious metals and oil. The market is over extended. We have seen the market rally 20% since the July low.

Inter-market analysis is important to understand because everything is related in some way. The next month will be very interesting with the US dollar trying to rally, which will put pressure on precious metals, stocks and commodities.

DIA ETF – Dow Industrial Fund
Stocks look to have formed a similar pattern as the March rally this year. The market has the same feel and price action that we saw during the June high, which is telling me we should move stops up to protect profits. Wednesday the market had an intraday reversal and that is a sign of weakness. The past four trading day’s is the same as the July bottom (multiple Doji Candles). Doji candles indicate a possible reversal.

DIA ETF Trading Newsletter

DIA ETF Trading Newsletter

Broad Market Volatility Index
Here is a weekly volatility chart that shows we are at a long term support level. The saying is, buy when the VIX is high, sell when the VIX is low. Just to be clear, I am not saying sell everything. I am just pointing out that the market is ready for a multi week correction. I am tightening my stops and limiting my position size for new log positions.

VIX Volatility Index Trading

VIX Volatility Index Trading

UUP ETF – US Dollar Intraday Price Action
The dollar sold down Wednesday, then rallied very strong into the close, indicating a shift in momentum. The dollar has been trending down for several months and ready for a bounce.

UUP US Dollar Trading Fund

UUP US Dollar Trading Fund


Precious Metals Under Pressure
Below is a chart of Gold and Silver showing the weakness on Wednesday and the sharp sell off late in the session, when the US dollar started to rally.

Precious Metals Trading Newsletter

Precious Metals Trading Newsletter

XLE Energy ETF – Intraday Chart
Energy sector moved down in the morning and managed to wiggle its way back to positive territory late in the day, but when the US dollar rallied, crude oil and the energy sector sold off sharply.

XLE Energy Trading Newsletter

XLE Energy Trading Newsletter

Inter-Market Analysis Conclusion:
In my opinion things look to be setup for a multi week shift in momentum. It looks like the US Dollar will bounce putting pressure on precious metals, stocks, and commodities like crude oil.

Stocks look ready to correct and a bounce in the dollar will trigger the correction.

Gold is at a major resistance level, and taking a breather at this level would be normal price action. Gold has also been trading in sync with stocks, so this relationship is most likely still in place. If stocks move down, so will gold.

Crude oil is having a tough time moving higher and with Wednesday’s higher than expected oil inventory levels, there will be more down side pressure.

Currently we have several profitable position and we will be tightening our stops and looking for new opportunities in the coming days.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports for ETF’s or Stock Trading Reports please visit my websites: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com and www.ActiveTradingPartner.com

Chris Vermeulen

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ETF Trading for GLD, SLV, UNG, USO Funds

Commodity ETF trading charts allow us to track and trade the underlying commodities with ease. I have provided a few daily charts to show were current commodity prices and chart pattern are at.

GLD Gold ETF Trading – Daily Chart
As you can see from the chart below GLD had a nice 4 day rally breaking out of a longer term pattern (weekly chart – pennant pattern). This bullish action triggered several different types of traders/investors to buy into the move including us. After taking some short term profits we continue to hold a core position with a stop in place to lock in more profit if we see the GLD ETF move lower from here.

Interest for GLD is decreasing which you can see from the volume divergence on the chart. This is a bearish sign, but we remain long until the price action tells us to get out and wait for a new short term trade.

GLD ETF Trading Newsletter

GLD ETF Trading Newsletter

SLV Silver ETF Trading – Daily Chart
SLV ETF has been trending upwards for about a month and is now trading in the middle of its trend channel. We could see silver trade sideway or down for a couple days as the price consolidates. We continue to hold a core position and wait for a technical breakdown to lock in more profit, or have other possible low risk setups to add more to our position.

SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

SLV ETF Trading Newsletter

UNG ETF Trading – Daily Chart
The UNG etf looks like it may be ready for a pullback and shorting this fund or buying a nat gas bear fund could be a good trade in the coming days. Notice the two price moves lower back in May & July. They were both followed by two bounces before making another leg lower. UNG could easily move up to $12.50 level but a technical breakdown will trigger speculative sellers. Shorting a fund like this which has terrible contango can actually help improve your returns. I will post an update for members if we have a short play on it later this week.

UNg ETF Trading Newsletter

UNg ETF Trading Newsletter

USO ETF Trading – Daily Chart
USO etf trading has been slow in the past couple months because of the sideways price action. With any luck we may get a low risk buy signal before the longer term (weekly Chart – Pennant Pattern) breakout, which will trigger speculative traders to buy oil again. I continue to follow this fund for potential buy signals for my clients.

USO ET Trading Newsletter

USO ET Trading Newsletter

USO, UNG, SLV and GLD ETF Trading Conclusion:
GLD traders should be ready to take profits if we see a continued move lower below our blue trend channel. I am always sure I do not take a loss on a trade once it becomes profitable by 2% or more and this is the key to consistent gains.

SLV ETF traders have been rewarded nicely in the past couple weeks. The price of silver has more room to fall before breaking down or bouncing so wait for one or the other before jumping. Following a trading model allows you to make consistent returns and catch large rallies over time for much larger gains. But you must follow the charts with a technical eye and discipline.

UNG traders had a very nice 25% rally from the perfect waterfall sell off a few weeks back. The price is now getting close to a resistance level so tighten your stops to lock in maximum gains before the price rolls over. I may have a short play for this commodity if we get a proper setup.

USO crude oil traders have been twiddling their thumbs as they wait for a breakdown or new rally higher. This chart pattern looks similar to the GLD breakout we had so oil could put in a much larger percent move than GLD with any luck in the coming months.

In short we continue to hold our positions and ride the market with protective stops in place. Lest see what happens this week.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports via email please enter your email address on my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com or Stock Trading Reports at www.ActiveTradingPartner.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Gold Stocks on a Daily, Weekly & Monthly Buy Signal – Video

Gold is back in the spot light as it flirts with the $1000 per ounce level. This closely watched commodity looks as thought it will rocket higher because of the multiple trading time frames indicating breakouts.

I mainly focus is on trading the daily chart but I always refer back to the longer time frames which are the weekly and monthly charts. Knowing the momentum and trend on these long term trading charts allow me to identify the strength of the rallies and sell offs on the daily chart. I use this analysis for determining how large of a position to take, and where to place profit targets and stop loss levels.

Trading gold stocks does provide explosive opportunities when the price of gold moves. The past couple years I have only been focusing on trading gold to the long side because the overall long term trend is up. Trading with the longer term trend always improves the odds of winning the trade. I will short GLD or GDX funds for an intraday trade using my simple Kitco gold overlay Day Trading Strategy. I have posted this strategy a couple of times on the internet, if you want to read more about it.

Below is my analysis explaining the price action of gold stocks on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. I also a listed the US and Canadian funds which I trade.

HUI Gold Stocks Index – Daily Chart – Short Term
The daily chart of the HUI clearly shows buy and sell signals, which were generated in the past 2 months. Using resistance trend lines for breakout levels is very important. I also use pivot lows to draw and connect my support trend lines, which allow me to calculate down side risk and buy signals. The recent breakout is very strong and that is because the weekly and monthly charts are showing a breakout to the upside triggering longer term traders/investors to buy.

Daily chart buy and sell signals are for short term trades which last between 2-20 trading days. My focus is to lock in 1-5% gains but in a strong trend I can pocket 10-20% return in a short period of time.

Gold Stocks Newsletter

Gold Stocks Newsletter

HUI Gold Stocks Index – Weekly Chart – Intermediate Term
Weekly chart patterns and breakouts provide a much larger move in general so watching this chart is crucial for long term success. Following the weekly chart goes for trading every investment vehicle whether you are trading stocks, futures, FOREX etc…

This chart generated a buy signal in December of 2008, which we took advantage of. And just 2 weeks ago it gave us another buy signal. Again using my simple trading strategy which involves trend lines and the MACD momentum indicator, we are able to establish clear buy and sell signals.

Gold Stocks Trading

Gold Stocks Trading

HUI Gold Stocks Index – Monthly Chart – Long Term
Long term investors will use the monthly chart for timing their buy and sell signals because once the momentum has shifted direction it tends to last for several months if not years. I do not focus on trading these long term signals but I use them to help me know the momentum (power) of the next possible breakout. This also helps me in deciding whether to scale out on rallies with some of my position locking in some profit and buying back on dips, while leaving a core position incase the price continues to rally.

The monthly chart of the HUI shows a breakout this month and if the price can hold until Oct we will have a complete long term buy signal. I use the MACD for momentum and the HUI:GLD ratio to confirm the breakout which puts the odds more in my favor.

Gold Stocks Newsletter

Gold Stocks Newsletter

Precious Metals Funds for Trading Gold and Silver Moves – Daily Chart
Here is a list of the precious metals funds I trade on a regular basis. I trade both US and Canadian funds. Because I am based in Canada I focus on Canadian gold stocks and gold funds when there are intermediate/long term signals which I trade in my retirement account.

The funds I trade are GLD (gold bullion), GDX (gold miner stocks), SLV (Silver Bullion), XGD.TO (Canadian Gold Stocks), CEF/A.TO (Canadian Gold & Silver Bullion). If you look at a comparison chart you will see some funds provide much larger moves than others. In general I like to own a bullion fund and a precious metal stock fund so that I get the best of both worlds.

Gold Trading Investments GLD, SLV, HUI, GDX

Gold Trading Investments GLD, SLV, HUI, GDX

My Gold Stocks Newsletter Trading Conclusion:
In short, Gold and gold stocks are on fire. The next 13 trading days are very important for gold as it battles to breakout above the $1000 – $1033 level which is the 2008 high. With gold trading at this MAJOR resistance level also known as a “Pivot Point”, the risk level is higher for traders. The odds are pointing to higher prices but we must recognize that price action becomes volatile and fast moving. We could see the price breakout and rally to the $1500 level within months which is what are currently positioned for. But we must realize that gold could create a double top and sell off very quickly which is why we have stops in place to protect us.

So those of you who are long be sure to lock in some profit and be ready for some wild price action in the coming weeks.

If you would like to receive these Free Weekly Reports please Opt-in to my newsletter at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen & ActiveTradingPartners Open Service for Public Members

Active Trading Partners launched its brand new trading and investing commentary service on July 15th, 2009. In the short seven weeks since we launched, ATP has produced numerous stocks that have gained, 30, 40, 50, 60, and even 100%. Below are some excerpts from actual ATP research postings on our new service for Partners/Members. Most recently, we recommended JAZZ last Tuesday, 9/1/09 and it has risen as much as 63% in one week.

Are you getting quality advice, market updates, regular follow ups on your positions, and booking gains on an 80-90% success rate? If not, perhaps you should try a subscription to ActiveTradingPartners.com, where we are unmatched in our returns to partners.

We are limited to 200 subscribers and are nearly filled now, so act now. For $249.00 per month you get 8-10 new positions alerted per month, or about $25.00 per alert. With average historical returns of over 20% per recommendation. $10,000 put into each of our positions since the launch would have returned over 100 fold your $249.00 investment per month.

Samples below:

August 4th, 2009- LRR.TO/LRLMF $1.66
…Linear Gold is a micro cap gold stock, and I usually will hesitate to put these on the ATP service, but this one looks like a great value going forward, and I like the chart set up here as well…Shares outstanding are 34 million. That’s a market cap of 58 million Canadian, or less than 2x future projected net cash flows. They have 24 million in the bank, 0 debt currently, and multiple drill projects. They have leverage later on to future gold price increases, and position to acquire other projects/exploration plays. I’m not seeing a lot of downside here.
Results: Linear Gold ran to $2.28 17 days later for a 37% gain.

August 14th- CRXX- $1.05
… the “Saucer” chart is bullish because of the general sideways movement over a long period of time. This is a transfer of shareholders from old to new, re-setting a large base for the stock. A break over $1.10 could trigger a run back to $1.34 a recent spike high on good news several weeks ago. Also, there is a huge “gap” at $3.00 a share above. This means there is an air pocket where technically there are no sellers until $3.00. The only sellers will be the traders who bought recently, or buy near term. To say that I am excited by the long term prospects of this merger would be an understatement.
Results: CRXX ran to $1.34 within a few days for a 25% gain. It has since risen as high as $1.92 on September 1st, for a 75% gain in 3 weeks for ATP.

August 18th- VICL- $3.35
…with Federated Kauffman paying $3.63 a share just a few weeks ago for 3 million shares, they brought their total to 5.4 million shares. The stock has drifted down and volume has dropped from a 90 day average of over 1 million to just 350,000 or so a day lately. This normally precedes a shift in sentiment and price movement, quite simply the crowd has moved on.
We have an ATP proprietary “Fibonacci Intersection” on Aug 17th, and to ATP it means the stock bottoms around that time and it’s time to start accumulating positions… A break over $3.40 will probably start a new bull trend in the stock.
Results: On September 3rd, 16 days later, VICL hit $5.40 for a 61% gain

August 20th- SPPI- $6.27
SPPI- …When the stock hit 6.05 earlier this week, it was at the bottom of proprietary indicators I have developed as reliable for pivots. I mentioned earlier this week that I had picked some up at 6.12 and 6.15. This afternoon I was an aggressive buyer at a 6.27 average per share and building a position… The chart appears to be very bullish and very oversold at the same time. If I was to hazard a guess, I would see a move up to 6.80-6.90 again, then a pullback, and then a breakout over 7 with a run.
Results: On September 4th, SPPI hit $9.00 a share for a 43% gain in two weeks.

September 1st- JAZZ $7.29
The stock closed 8/31/09 at $7.29 a share and has been in a general trading range for about 5 weeks now. We also have a 5 day reverse head and shoulder pattern, often a leading indicator of a move up. ATP research would not be surprised to see a move towards $10.00 per share over the intermediate time period.
Results: On September 4th, Jazz soared over $10.00 per share for a 40% plus gain in 3 trading days for ATP

September 2nd- RINO $12.60
…accumulating a position in RINO here in the 12.50-12.90 window. The volume has completely dried up on the stock after the recent run from mid 10.70 to 14.88. The pullback is a typical “B Wave” pullback in an “A-B-C’ move to the upside. This actually retraced a perfect Fibonacci 61% retracement of the recent swing move up… The valuation remains very cheap, the company is very under-followed.

Results: Stock closed at $14.27 the next day as Rodman and Renshaw initiated coverage with a $22 target. 13% return in 24 hours.

Please visit our website for more information: www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
Chris Vermeulen

Gold & Silver Technical Trading Charts

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend!

Gold is once again the hot commodity, as the price rises to the $1000 per ounce level. This $1000 – $1033 is a technical pivot point for gold. One of two things is going to take place in the coming weeks.

If the price of gold can move above $1033 then I expect to see a lot of traders and investors buying gold, as they panic into the position because they do not want to miss another gold rally. Also traders who are short gold will be forced to cover their positions and this will send the price of gold rocketing higher towards the $1200- $1500 area.

On the other hand, if gold fails to break higher, we will see a swift sell off, as everyone sells their position.

HUI – Gold Stocks Index – Monthly
I like to use this chart for timing longer-term gold investments. Gold stocks tend to lead the price of gold on a percentage gain/loss basis and so far this month, gold stocks are on fire. This bodes well for gold.

When I see breakouts on this monthly chart, I tend to take larger positions in gold and gold stocks because rallies tend to last 2-6 months. I like to take profits, as the price rises, so that I am locking in gains while still taking part in the continuing move.

The gold stocks (Golden Rockets) we purchased 2 months ago are now up 45% and 100% from our entry point and they still look very strong. Taking some money off the table is a great idea. Gold could go either way fast and it’s better to sell some of the position to lock in profits and let the balance of the trade run. Too many traders swing for a home run and never take profits on winning positions. Winners eventually turn into losers if you hold on to them long enough. Money management is the key to successful trades.

Gold Stocks Newsletter

Gold Stocks Newsletter

Price of Gold – Gold Bullion – Weekly Chart
This chart clearly shows the breakout last week from the pennant pattern. The price of gold is nearing resistance. This week will be exciting as gold tries to breakout.

Gold Bullion Newsletter

Gold Bullion Newsletter

Price of Silver – Silver Bullion – Weekly Chart
Silver is not as close to the 2008 high like gold is, but is still performing well. Silver is trading at a short-term resistance level and I expect to see higher prices this week.

Silver Bullion Newsletter

Silver Bullion Newsletter

Silver and Gold Newsletter Conclusion:
Gold and silver are starting to run higher and with all the media coverage I expect to see money moving into precious metals for a couple months. This is an exciting time for precious metal investors and a lot of money is going to be changing hands once these metals pick a direction and start moving.

I will be sending out my energy report for oil and natural gas tomorrow. If you would like to receive my trading reports please visit my website at: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen