I have put together a very detailed video this morning coving bother some long term, short term and market cycles. The video is a little longer than normal but I want you to understand fully where the market is trading and what to look for in the coming days.
Pre-Market Analysis Points:
– Dollar is trading higher this morning which is putting pressure on stocks & commodities.
– Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies at 10am ET which will cause all investments to move wild.
– Oil is trading slightly lower and oil inventory numbers come out at 10:30am ET.
– Natural gas is flat and continues to build a base at resistance for a possible future breakout.
– Gold, Sold Miners and Silver continue to consolidate within a multi month pattern. A major move is brewing but has not been triggered as of yet.
– Bonds are trading up from yesterday’s close after pulling back from reaching our double top price target on Monday.
– SP500 is nearing a couple resistance levels (previous pivot high, down trend line) Momentum, short term and intermediate cycles are starting to top and that means we should be prepared for a pullback/down trend which could last 4-6 weeks.
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Gold and stock market forecaster have been using cycles in price that repeat every certain amount of trading days to help them spot key reversal areas in the financial market. Almost everything in life seems to go in cycles and commodity prices and the stock market are no different.
As we all know the market is very difficult to forecast when using only one set of analysis like cycles. Analyzing price action, volume, market sentiment, market breadth, trends and inter-market analysis are the other key areas which one must understand before they can be in the zone (ZEN) with the financial market and properly forecast future prices.
This report will show you just how well cycles work if applied and traded properly.
How to Buy Dips and Sell Rips in Gold Using Cycle Analysis
The chart below is of gold and shows its short term trading cycles. I will admit this chart is hard on the eyes and as ugly as they get to bear with me.
Three different cycles have been applied to the chart using a short, intermediate and long term cycle wave length. The general idea here is that you want to trade with the underlying trend, then use these short term cycles to profit from weekly price swings.
Gold has been in a down trend for a year so the focus should be on shorting the bounces. Focusing on selling short gold during a time with 2 or more cycles are topping as you stand a great chance of the price moving in your favor within 1-3 days.
Once the price starts to move in your favor you want to scalp to profits once the short term (green) cycle drops near a reversal level. Once this takes place I always tighten my stops to breakeven, lock in some profits and continue to wait for another cycle to reach the bottom at which point I take more profit off the table and tighten my protective stop once again.
As you can see this is not the perfect system but it makes money, and if you apply more analysis to the market you can lock in more of these moves using intraday charts, volume, and sentiment levels.
Gold Market Cycles
How to Find Market Cycles
You must have an analysis tool that can read the market and find cycles within it. Once you know how many days the most frequent cycles are occurring you can then use a custom cycle indicator to overlay them on the charts as seen in the gold chart above. The visual overlay is the key to spotting market reversals and areas to add to a position or trim profits. Look at the chart below for a visual of how I find my cycles.
Market Forecast Cycles
Gold Cycle Forecast Conclusion:
In short, gold overall remains in a down trend. But from looking at the gold chart and its short term cycles I have a feeling we will be seeing price trade sideways this week and a bounce next week.
The next week will be very interesting as these cycles will actually give us an early warning if the overall gold market is about to bounce or sell off. The question is what the cycles do in the next few days while gold flirts with support…
It does take some time/experience to read the cycles and get a feel for how they move so don’t worry about it if you don’t fully grasp the idea from this short article. Find out more on cycles and trading at www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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The term Stock market predictionsis a very controversial topic and does seem to give off a negative/non-credible overtone to most traders, investors and the general public. We all know you cannot predict the market with 100% certainty, but knowing that you can still predict the market more times than not if done correctly. Keep in mind that the term “market prediction” is also known as a market forecast or technical analysis outlook and is nothing more than a estimated guess of where the price for a specific investment is likely to move in the coming minutes, hours, days, weeks and even months.
Getting back on topic, this report clearly shows how the US dollar plays a dominant role in the price of other investments. Understanding how to read the Dollar Index will make you a better trader all around when trading stocks, ETF’s, options or futures.
SP500 Stock Market predictions – 10 Minute Chart: These charts clearly show the inverse relationship between the stock market and the dollar index. Knowing how to read charts (candle sticks, chart patterns, volume etc…) is not enough to give you a winning edge. You must also understand inter-market analysis as all markets are linked together in some way and the dollar plays a major role in where stock prices will move next. Review the charts and comments below on how I came up with my stock market prediction and trade idea.
Most Accurate Stock Market Predictions
Gold Market Prediction – 10 Minute Charts Gold is another investment which is directly affected by the price of the dollar. Review charts for more details.
Gold Market Forecast Procetions
Long Term Stock Market Forecast: The weekly dollar chart is VERY IMPORTANT to watch as a short term trader and long term investor because trend changes in the dollar means you open positions will also likely change direction.
So, if we apply technical analysis to the dollar chart as seen below. You will notice we are able to create a market forecast and predict roughly where price is likely to move and how long it should take to get there. If the dollar can break above the red resistance level then we can expect a rally for 4 – 8 weeks and a price target around the 87-88 level.
If this is the case then stocks and commodities would likely do the inverse price action and move lower, sharply lower…
In short, the next weekly candle stick on the dollar chart could be a game changer for those who are long the overall stock market.
I will admit that the current market conditions are not easy to trade because of all the headline news rolling out of Europe each week along with economic data. And I feel as though we have been tip toeing through a mine field for the past 12+ months waiting for extremely negative news are extremely positive news to trigging a wave of buying or selling that will make our jaw drop, but it has yet to happen. Remember always use stops and don’t get over committed in a headline driven market.
If you would like to receive my free weekly analysis like this, be sure to opt-in to my list: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
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