Archive for category: Gold Forecast

Currently, we are experiencing the SPX topping formation. Again, it is dangerously overextended.  The SPX staged a strong rally due to the repeated actions of Central Bankers, during the month of February 2016.

Presently. we are truly living, investing and trading in ‘unprecedented’ times.  Another push higher is not out of the question, at this time, into ‘nominal’ new highs as we experienced this past Friday, April 1^st, 2016 and then within a week or two it should start cycling back down.

There are strong ‘headwinds’ straight ahead for any attempted rallies that may take place.  There is ‘bearish’ divergence within several momentum oscillators.  This is signaling major warning signs!  There are no bullish or favorable long setups in the marketplace environment.  I would look towards ‘unexpected’ choppy price movements across the board.

Investor sentiment has reading levels associated with ‘peaks’ in the equity market advances. Courtesy of ivewmakets.com

It is dangerous when the markets have nothing of substance sustaining them, other than their dependence on the FED’s announcements regarding its’ monetary support.   It is extremely dangerous when the FED tailors its’ remarks so as to support financial asset levels.  This is not the mandate of the FED, however, we are all waiting with anticipation, to hear their future announcement!

When Dr. Janet Yellen can make a couple of phone calls and implement an equities rally into new highs in 2016, of the equity markets, as of last Friday, April 1^st, 2016, then we become the ‘fools’ who believe and buy into it!

Interventions by Central Banks, cannot change the long term trend from ‘bearish’ to ‘bullish’ I don’t think anymore.  They are merely delaying the inevitable and just creating a ‘slow roasting bear market’ (as I have previously mentioned for several months is starting to unfold in the US large cap stocks).  While these actions of the Central Bankers are now behind us, we are currently entering the earning season, which is most likely to disappoint Wall Street analysts.

The U.S. is currently experiencing the worst financial and economic recovery during the history of the countries’ worst financial crisis’ and ‘recession’, since the Great Depression. Most people don’t realize what is happening and thus don’t see or feel much of this recession, but it’s there building momentum in the background and it will be a rude awakening for most once the breaking point is reached.

 

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the US stock market is at the topping point. Odd favor a major market downturn that will last before the next bounce, and then continue yet again even lower.

This will be a big surprise to most but my followers and I have been watching this unfold for months and are stocking the market to time the next BIG SHORT to make our killing.

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Chris Vermeulen

Learning to generate profits with trading systems is important, but it is what you add to your net worth that will make a lasting difference in your lifestyle and future. It is difficult to explain the difference that having a substantial net worth can make in your attitude. When you feel truly wealthy, the things and the experiences that your money can buy are secondary to the prosperity of the mindset that you develop. T. Ecker is fond of saying “The rich really are different and that it is their mindset, not just their bank accounts”.

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Once the majority of Americans have made up their mind and voted it will be almost impossible to change the direction of the outcome and change their minds. Unfortunately, the majority has voted and are in agreement with the next major event that will catch most people off guard. While this may sound bad and negative, I feel it is an opportunity of a lifetime.

You may be thinking I’m talking about who will be the next president but that is not it. Although the same theory applies to that as well.

Hear me out because this is equally important in terms of your financial future. This video is a great example of how you can benefit from this next major event unfolding – Bear Market in US Stocks, continue reading to fully understand my reasoning.

How do you read these data points?
Everyone reads data very differently than each other and I think that is one of the reasons why I can navigate the market so well. I look at data and try to figure out who are the individual generating the data within the information presented. For example in this article, I want to show you how I perceive Google trends and what it’s telling us.

Typically traders look at mass market sentiment leaning in one direction to be a contrarian indicator. Meaning if everyone is bearish on the market then we are likely to see a new bull market start sooner than later. While I do agree with this theory/strategy you must take into account what type of data you are using in order to come to that conclusion.

To me, there is a big difference between the average investor being bearish on the market which we typically see right at the end of a bear market when trillions have been lost because of falling stock prices. But, compared to those who are searching the keyword phrase in Google “bear market” at any given time I look at it as a leading indicator.

You see, I think people searching on Google for specific topics specifically ”bear market” are not the average Joe investor who does nothing but ride the emotional and account value roller coaster as markets fluctuate and don’t even know what a bear market is or even think to search it.

Instead, I feel those searching Google are the educated and active investors and trader who are the ones who create market trends and significant turning points in the market. These are people being proactive learning and adjusting their portfolios to avoid losing money and/or to profit generously during market downturns just as I do.

 

Stocks Are In A Bull Market When Google Tend Looks Like This:

The graph below shows different shades of blue. The lighter blue colors mean fewer searches for the term “bear market”. This is when the educated traders are bullish on the market and continually buying more shares, thus supporting the market trend. The dark shaded states are where specific regions of people are more bearish than the rest of the states. When the chart looks like this (light blue) we expect higher prices in the stock market.

 

Stocks ENTERING A NEW BEAR MARKET If Google Tend Looks Like This:

Take a look at the two charts and graphs below. Both of these look very similar to each other. The one on the left shows us what the educated investor was thinking and doing with their money just before the bear market of 2008 and the final washout low in 2009.

Now, if you look at today’s Google trend which is the image of the US on the right-hand side you will see both look very similar to each other. To add more depth to this analysis if we were to compare the market breadth and internals for the US stock market they are also very similar in nature. Both of these types of analysis combined paint a clear bearish picture for stocks looking forward 6 to 12 months from now.

Just look how much darker blue both of these charts are compared to that during a bull market when investors are putting new money into stocks, which is the first graph explained above.

Now let’s look at the bottom of this image where you see the interest over time line chart for the number of searches on “bear market ”in the USA. From what this data is telling us, we are days or weeks away from a significant market top in stocks and the start of something that will wipe-out most individuals life savings once again… This will be my third time experiencing this type of event as a trader – 2001 tech crash, 2008 financial crisis, and now the 2016 economic crash.

 

 

 

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I feel the US stock market specifically the large-cap stocks are going to provide a huge opportunity for investors who understand what is happening and how to take advantage of it.

Google has provided us with some excellent information to help identify and time major market turning points for long-term investors and short-term active traders like you and me.

In 2008, we had a very similar situation set up in the market and I was able to generate life-changing returns from these moves, I should note there are two major plays here, not just one.

These incredible trade setups are a once in a decade opportunity and more money can be made during some of the roughest times in the stock market and economy if you know which simple trades to place and when to buy and sell.

Learn more at my ETF Trading Newsletter Website

Chris Vermeulen

The rise of the ‘dollar store business model’ caters to a disappearing ‘middle class’ who are incurring shrinking incomes. This has made ‘dollar stores’ prosper, in the last decade. Dollar stores, for most Americans, have carried an odd sort of stigma.  In the past, these stores were seen as shopping for the poor, only.  We are all now aware that many people who were in the once strong American ‘middle class’ were thrown off of the prosperity path and into ‘lower income’ brackets from business layoffs, downsizing, and salary reduction.  While regular product companies struggle the expanding ‘dollar stores’ have found a niche in this economic climate.  The shrinking ‘middle class’ means more customers for ‘dollar stores’.

 A big part of the ‘new recovery’ is lining up at midnight at Wal-Mart stores in order to purchase food. There are families not able to feed their families by the end of the month. They are literally lining up at midnight at Wal-Mart stores, waiting to buy food along with their Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) Cards when their funds are deposited into their accounts.

EBT cards are an electronic system that allows state welfare departments to issue benefits via magnetically encoded payment cards, used in the United States. The average monthly EBT payout is $125.00 per person!

Common benefits provided (in the United States) via EBT, are typically of two general categories: food and cash benefits. Food benefits are federally authorized benefits that can be used only to purchase food and non-alcoholic beverages. Food benefits are distributed through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly the Food Stamp Program. Cash benefits include state general assistance, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits, and refugee benefits.

 There appears to be a ‘growing great divide’ within the current U.S. economy.  The financial sector is swimming in their ‘bailout-induced profits’. Within their elite circles, it appears as if the ‘recession’ is over.

However, within the average American family, they are not experiencing available access to new credit cards, equity in their homes is vanishing and they do not have a store of available capital they can access like a ‘stock portfolio’.

The table below clearly shows the middle class making less money year after year while the wealthy earn more each year. The money is slowly shifting from everyone to just the one-percenters – YIKES

 

Conclusion:

In short, the average American is slowly earning less and becoming financially stressed about their future outlook.

If you are one of these hard working individuals experiencing a decline in business/income its best you do some research and change what you are doing because things will likely get much worse before they get better.

Mainly because of Trump thousands of Americans are looking to leave the country with the search term “How to Move to Canada” up over 1000% last month. While I love Canada, myself being a Canadian and all, there are many other great places to live and a very full life at a fraction the cost of Canada/USA.

Couple years ago I went to the DR (Dominican Republic) to see if it would work for my family in the winters to escape the cold and be surrounded in palm trees, ocean and kitesurfing. It was an awesome experience with a huge amount of development, tons of Canadians, retirees, and elegant vacation properties available at Holden Sotheby’s.

There are many ways to preserve capital and also ways to grow it substantially no matter what the economy does and I share this information in the video on the home page of my Trading Newsletter Website.

See how we made money in the last 5 days trading – Click Here

Chris Vermeulen