Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders joins Elijah K Johnson from Liberty and Finance to talk about the most recent price actions and commodities during the war. Looking at quarterly charts, we can see that gold is pointing to a lot higher prices because of the war. Silver is quite the beast, though it typically lags a little bit then suddenly pops and takes off.
Overall, everyone seems to run toward the commodities and we are likely going to continue to see them pick up speed as a safe-haven during the war. Best be prepared for commodities to move in massive volumes, with high volatility, and high risks in the year to come. Gold is more stable and silver is more like the late bloomer. Inflation may go way beyond what most people are thinking.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT COMMODITIES AMID WAR – WATCH THE VIDEO
TO EXPLORE THE TOTAL ETF PORTFOLIO, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/liberty.png186255adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-15 16:29:372022-03-15 16:29:41Do We Rush Into Trading Commodities During A Time Of War? – Video
Soaring real estate, rising volatility, surging commodities and slumping stocks – Sound Familiar?
This past week marked the 13th anniversary of the bottom of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The March 6, 2009 stock market low for the S&P 500 marked a staggering overall value loss of 51.9%.
The GFC of 2007-09 resulted from excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions, which resulted in the bursting of the housing market bubble. This, in turn, led to a vast collapse of mortgage-back securities resulting in a dramatic worldwide financial reset.
The following graph shows us that precious metals and energy outperform the stock market as the ‘Bull’ cycle reaches its maturity. The stock market is always the first to lead, the second being the economy, and the third, being the commodity markets. But history has shown that commodity markets can move up substantially as the stock market ‘Bull’ runs out of steam.
The current commodities rally in Gold began August 2021, Crude Oil April 2020, and Wheat in January 2022. Interestingly we started seeing capital outflows in the SPY-SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF in early January 2022, and the DRN-Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF starting back in late December 2021.
LET’S SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STOCK AND COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2007-2008
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 TRUST ETF
From August 17, 2007 to July 3, 2008: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust depreciated -20.12%
The State Street Corporation designed SPY for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Stock Index. According to State Street’s website www.ssga.com, the Benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, comprises selected stocks from five hundred (500) issuers, all of which are listed on national stock exchanges and span over approximately 24 separate industry groups.
DBC – INVESCO DB COMMODITY INDEX TRACING FUND ETF
From August 17 2007 to July 3, 2008: Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund appreciated +96.81%
Invesco designed DBC for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. According to Invesco’s website www.invesco.com, the Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world.
BE ALERT: THE US FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY MEETING IS THIS WEEK!
In February, the inflation rate rose to 7.9% as food and energy costs pushed prices to their highest level in more than 40 years. If we exclude food and energy, core inflation still rose 6.4%, which was the highest since August 1982. Gasoline, groceries, and housing were the most significant contributors to the CPI gain. The consumer price index is the price of a weighted average market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.
The FED was expected to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its policy meeting this week, March 15-16. However, given the recent world events of the Russia – Ukraine war in Europe, the FED may decide to be more cautious and raise rates by only 25 basis points.
HOW WILL RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET?
As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing becomes more expensive. Rising interest rates tend to affect the market immediately, while it may take about 9-12 months for the rest of the economy to see any widespread impact. Higher interest rates are generally negative for stocks, with the exception of the financial sector.
WILL RISING INTEREST RATES BURST OUR HOUSING BUBBLE?
It is too soon to tell exactly what the impact of rising interest rates will be regarding housing. It is worth noting that in a thriving economy, consumers continue buying. However, in our current economy, where the consumers’ monthly payment is not keeping up with the price of gasoline and food, it is more likely to experience a leveling off of residential prices or even the risk of a 2007-2009 repeat of price depreciation.
THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTSIZED GAINS IN A BEAR MARKET ARE 7X GREATER THAN A BULL MARKET!
The average bull market lasts 2.7 years. From the March low of 2009, the current bull market has established a new record as the longest-running bull market at 12 years and nine months. The average bear market lasts just under ten months, while a few have lasted for several years. It is worth noting that bear markets tend to fall 7x faster than bull markets go up. Bear markets also reflect elevated levels of volatility and investor emotions which contribute significantly to the velocity of the market drop.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24 months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe we are seeing the markets beginning to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into metals, commodities, and other safe havens.
IT’S TIME TO GET PREPARED FOR THE COMING STORM; UNDERSTAND HOW TO NAVIGATE THESE TYPES OF MARKETS!
I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/SNAG-0003.png550752adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-15 16:25:142022-03-15 16:25:24Are Current Market Cycles Similar To The GFC Of 2007–2009?
Chris sits down with Charlotte Mcleod from Investing News Network INN to discuss Gold, Silver, and Miners’ recent activities.
There has been a lot going on with gold in the last several weeks. From a technical perspective, we are back into a bull market mode with gold stocks and precious metals in general. Looking at the price of gold on the quarterly chart, gold is about to break through all-time highs. Based on the quarterly chart pattern, and using a Fibonacci extension, we can see a very big move over the next year and a half.
Volatility remains very high, most commodities are moving up or down 5%, 10%, or 15% on a daily basis, making trades high risk. Alas, volatility will be here to stay for a while. In my opinion, a lot of this has to do with the stock market likely being in the late stages of topping out. It may only take one more drop of 5-8% to have people panicking and getting out of the markets altogether.
Looking at the big picture, the stock market doesn’t have a whole lot of upside potential left. We are still in a healthy correction however there are warning signs that a bearish stage may be on the horizon. Having said that, technical indicators say we are still in a bull market.
Other topics covered in the interview – inflation, oil/gas prices, currencies, silver, commodities supercycle, and how to balance out the momentum surge brought on by news-based global events.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, AND MINERS – WATCH THE VIDEO
TO EXPLORE THE TOTAL ETF PORTFOLIO, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Capture-1.jpg404880adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-11 15:35:262022-03-11 15:35:35Are We Really In A Bull Market For Gold, Silver, And Miners? Video
The Technical Traders Podcast (00:00): Welcome to the technical trader’s podcast. The show that brings you technically proven strategies and trade ideas from experts around the world. We’re going to help you make more money with less risk, so you can take your trading to the next level. Now here’s your host, Jim Goddard.
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (00:20): My guest is Chris for Vermeulen from www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. The executive producer of this podcast. Chris, do you want to share with our listeners why we’re starting this podcast series?
Chris Vermeulen (00:32): Yeah, sure. Jim. Oh, it’s pretty straightforward. Really. The whole process is we simply want to help others learn how to become wealthier live a life, and they can do that through learning through others who have already kind of had success, or they’re on their on the journey through success as we speak. And, you know, there’s no point in learning, you know, learning the hard way through trial and error. When you can fast track your way through, the growth phase of learning more about who are, what you want to do different ways to make success. And I think this show we’re gonna bring on lots of different guests from all different aspects and areas of the world, and we’re gonna be able to show guests, you know, what those people have done, why they do it stories about how they got involved. So it’s, it’s gonna be a great way to figure out how to become more wealthy in the, and, and in life as well.
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (01:26): What do you hope to share in these podcasts with a new guest every week?
Chris Vermeulen (01:30): Yeah, so E everyone’s got, you know, a pretty incredible story and, and people come from so many different walks of life and stories, stories go from one extreme to the other. So the whole point here is we want your, you know, different individual stories and what happened, how they got involved in trading, investing different businesses and, and into their passion businesses. We want to get, you know, their, their ideas, their insight, and really, you know, it’s, it’s very interesting cuz everyone sees the world through a different lens, and they all find a unique way to either trade or investor or help people. And you, you, you know, as we talk to these people, the more people you help, the more successful you become. And it’s pretty amazing how a lot of these people have very similar qualities and traits to what they focus on.
Chris Vermeulen (02:20): so we’re gonna be sharing stories and hearing a some pretty amazing stories from individuals, and through these stories, they’re gonna be educational as well. So when you’re, you’re finished listening to these podcasts, you’re going to hopefully be inspired. You’re gonna be excited to take on new things that you are thinking of doing or to improve processes and steps you’re already doing going forward. And, you know, that’s the best way to do it as to follow people who have gone down the path before you and listen to all the different ways it’s been done and create your own kind of path in a way that suits your personally step personality, style, your financial style, you know, just what you want to do. And I think that’s really critical for people to have success because you’ve gotta make sure you do things the way that works with who you are. You don’t wanna force things, or else it becomes a job, and jobs aren’t fun. So that’s, hopefully, what people are gonna get out of our podcast here.
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (03:15): How did you get started in trading and investing?
Chris Vermeulen (03:19): Right? So it, it was a progression. So kind of a long story here of, of where I started to where I am today. So a long story short is, I’ve always been into creating and building things. When I was a kid in high school, I built a remote control airplane. I built a camera on it and used it to take photos. I’d only be able to take one, and I’d have to land the plane rewind up the camera. I went on to build a taser out of a camera flash. I build a go car, a dirt bike with a sidecar, I’ve built a boat, an airplane. I built a log cabin with my hands and just hand tools with my best friend out in the woods. I mean, I love a good challenge. I even invented the world’s first flying electric jet surfboard.
Chris Vermeulen (04:02): so I love challenges in general. And once I got wind of the stock market, when I was 16 in high school, I was like, this, this is, this is my next challenge. I want to master these markets. Cuz what we did in high school as we had this competition with other classes or other schools, which classroom could make the most money with a hundred thousand dollars investment in over one semester. I think we made like $180,000, and that was my eye-opening experience going. Oh my gosh, this is the next thing that I want to master. And so that that’s been it for 25 years. I’ve been focusing on the markets, constantly refining things. And it’s kind of led me down this path, and I’ve become a technical trader I’ve. I’ve kind of done the whole gauntlet. I’ve gone from trading stocks to options, Forex futures, day trading, you name it, I’ve gone through the whole cycle, and I’ve found my fit the way my brain can perceive the market find consistent trade.
Chris Vermeulen (05:01): And it’s, it’s all based on technical analysis. I don’t use any fundamentals anymore because I’ve gone through two bear markets where you can own stocks that are growing quarter after quarter. And the stock price keeps dropping 25% in value. Every quarter it goes against, you know, all logic. And that was when I realized, Hey, fundamentals, help when the trend is right, but technicals, if you follow the charts, the only way any of us make money as an investor is if our asset goes in the direction we want. And so by following the trends, identifying them, we can find which ones are the strongest, move our money in, catch that trend. When it’s starting to show signs of weakness, we can start to trim off our position and go find something fresh in a new kind of best asset. My theory is to always rotate your money into the best sector as they become market leaders.
Chris Vermeulen (05:50): So that’s kind of, kind of the phase of how I got into the stock market, and the guy who actually inspired me was Larry Williams. I ended up getting this little booklet in the mail. My dad got this booklet, of course, I was 16, and it was about trading commodities. And back then, commodities, there were no micro contracts or many contracts. So when you had a trade, you, you could make 30, 50, a hundred thousand dollars fairly quickly. And so that’s what got me hooked into the market. I read this little booklet a bunch of times. I remember going to my dad saying, Hey, let’s open a futures account, let’s trade together. And he’s like, I’m not touching those things. And of course, I didn’t realize the leverage involved in futures back then, but that was really what sparked my initial interest. And then of course, later that year in school is when we did the stock market challenge and that solidified the whole thing.
Chris Vermeulen (06:38): That’s what kind of put the whole process into place. So anyway, you know, looking forward several more years, I ended up writing a book on technical trading mastery, and I actually contacted Larry. He said, Larry, I’d love for you to read the book and, and, you know, write a review on the back of, of my book because you’re the one who got me into this you’ve, you know, allowed me to live this amazing lifestyle. And so that’s what ended up happening. It go went full circle from reading his booklet, getting involved, him being part of mine. And, it was a pretty amazing thing. So, that was kind of how I phased into the markets. And then, you know, investing isn’t just in the stock market. I also started as I started to earn or save up some wealth.
Chris Vermeulen (07:24): I started to invest in other things. I ended up starting my own health product company and built up a dealer network across Canada United States. I ended up selling that company in 2007, pretty much when the stock market was topping out. And then I took that cash. And then I was, when I decided, Hey, I’m gonna move into trading and helping others learn how to trade as well. And that’s when I founded technical traders, which is now in a figure business, which is unbelievable from, from nothing to where it is today. And, of course, now I’m able to invest in other like real estate. I own I’ve built, duplexes, super. I call them super duplexes and it, what they have access accessory apartments, which is very degenerate, a lot of income cuz you’ve got, you know, four rental units and, and more or less one building.
Chris Vermeulen (08:16): I also own waterfront properties. I’ve gone on to build my own self-storage facilities on industrial property. So investing isn’t just in the market, it’s nice once you start to accumulate wealth, you can start to branch out and diversify among all these different asset classes, which is really, really important. And there’s one type of asset that a lot of people don’t even really factor in or don’t even know about, which are annuities, which in layman’s terms, you’re more or less paying into this insurance plan, this life insurance plan on yourself and you pay into it. And, and then 20, 40 years later, you’ve accumulated all this wealth and all this interest and is leveraged on your death. And so when you get older, you can sign that insurance plan over to the bank, and you more or less can pull like 85% of the cash value of that insurance plan.
Chris Vermeulen (09:08): It’s almost like winning the lottery. You can have millions of dollars in there, and you get to spend that money tax-free and live off that in your later years. And then, when you die, the bank gets the rest of the insurance premium. They pay off the premium required, and the leftover cash would go on to your kids, or you can give it to charity. So that is another kind of investment that is a long-term investment. And, and I really like it because it’s not like the stock market where you can say, I’m gonna go put ten grand in right here. And then down the road, you want to go buy a car, and you’re like, you know what? I’m gonna pull money out of the stock market and go buy a car. The nice thing about annuities is it’s a contract, and you are locking yourself to pay premiums every month or every year, and you can’t just pull it out.
Chris Vermeulen (09:55): So I like it because it keeps people accountable. It doesn’t allow them to pull their money out, and it’s forcing them to have this amazing retirement down the road. And what’s really cool if we just wrote a book about this actually is the younger you are, the less painful it is to be wealthy. So time is money. Time is the biggest leverage. The biggest tool you have other than compound interest. But more or less, if you’re young, you know, you can put a hundred dollars away a month and do that for 20 or 40 years and have a lot of wealth with one of these plans, and that’s painless. But if you’re, you know, 55 and you wanna retire at 65, you’ve gotta be putting in large lumps of money every, every year, being very protective of it. so, you know, time is, is really important, and the annuity play is something, in investment.
Chris Vermeulen (10:45): I think almost everyone should have cuz it is your lotto ticket to, to kind of retirement down the road. And then of course, you can get into precious metals. You and I have talked about precious metals many times before. And you know, that to me is as an insurance plan on bad economic times. It’s an insurance plan on currency in case currency is devalued, precious metals. Aren’t a huge portion, just like you see in portfolios, precious metals are, you know, five, typically three to 5% of most people’s portfolios. You don’t really need a huge play. I think there’s a much better opportunity in different investments, but I think precious metals should be kind of in everyone’s investment pocket; just because right now we’re in a prime time, I think precious metals are on the verge of rallying for potentially a year or three years from now.
Chris Vermeulen (11:35): And we’re gonna see major chaos in current agencies in, in the economy. And then the last thing that I’m investing in right now is actually into the future, helping kids become successful. And we’ve, we’re starting a, a company called early start, and we’re helping kids build their own online businesses. I’m helping my daughter. She’s got two websites. She does live stream casts like every day on her social platforms. It’s just pretty, pretty amazing. So, you know, that was the long way of how I got into trading and investing, but it all started in college, got into trading, and then starting to diversify through all these other things. And before you know it, you look back, and you’re like, you realize how balanced you are and how different, how, how many different assets you have going forward. So, you know, I’ve created financial success many times over in a whole bunch of different avenues, as I just showed you, and the journey to success while it can be difficult at times. And it’ll humble you cuz no one’s perfect in what they do. It is a fun process, and there’s nothing more exciting than working towards an amazing future where hopefully you’re healthy, and you’ve got lots of money to go do all the things you want. And so that’s kind of the process of and all the things I’ve done. As I got into that and how I’ve matured over time and built my wealth and continue to reinvest in, in new assets,
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (13:00): What are your investing success philosophies, and what set of principles, beliefs, or experiences do you use to drive your decisions?
Chris Vermeulen (13:09): Yeah, so I, you know, I, I was taught by my parents at a really young age at, working hard works and I heard it again. I was on the treadmill the other day, and I was listening to motivational features on YouTube, and some people have put together some pretty amazing talks. It makes your hair stand up. Sometimes you, you, you know, you’re so excited. Other times you almost wanna cry. It’s just so motivating these, some of these talks, but I heard somebody say this again, hard work works. And the harder you work, the more lock you tend to find. And that’s what I’ve found. I’m I am not the sharpest tool in the shed. I am not, you know, super savvy when it comes to news and fundamentals and a whole whack of stuff. I’m a very picture-oriented guy. That’s why I fell in love with charts.
Chris Vermeulen (13:55): I’m like, oh my gosh, I get to look at these cool images and watch them update, and I can draw on them. And I mean, that’s the way, that’s the way I work. I would much rather, you know, I like working hard because it creates fun success. And I, and I don’t mind working hard because I’m doing things that I love. And one of the mentors that I had less Hewit he taught me the power of focus. He’s like, you’ve gotta have laser beam focus in order to have success. And, and so I do, I focus right in on the markets. I brought my focus right down to, I like trading, sectors, indexes, commodities, currencies, bonds trading, just ETFs. That is my focus. And I’m focusing on swing trading physician investing timeframes three different timeframes. And so that is where I’m really keeping the, you know, the focus on, and I don’t really go too far out.
Chris Vermeulen (14:46): That’s why I don’t do much with Bitcoin. I do. Don’t do a lot of, you know, different plays. I really just stick to the ETFs and the pockets of what the best asset now at any given time is. So, another mentor that I had that I fully believe in is, Tony Jerry. He taught me, you’ve gotta delegate tasks. You’ve gotta get them off your plate. And focus only on HLAs eight CHS are highly leveraged activities. Meaning I only want to do the things that I am best at that produce the the best results for myself, for the company, whatever those things are. Those are highly leveraged. If I put four hours into this project, it could generate, you know, X amount of money down the road or new opportunities and us. So I don’t want other people doing those. I want to do those.
Chris Vermeulen (15:33): The other thing is he taught me, make sure you do the tasks that you enjoy doing. They don’t have to be highly leveraged. It could be calling clients. It could be whatever, whatever it is that you like to do. This is one thing I, I believe people need to do is things that they enjoy. You don’t want to just work. So that, that really is a big part of my day is doing things that I enjoy doing, which is charting and, and chatting with members in the members, area, things like that, going forward. And, you know, also I think you need to work around the things that you enjoy. If you’re gonna get into a job, you just remember this, this job or your career is probably gonna be most of your life. I know a lot of us change jobs frequently, but, ideally you wanna make sure you get into something that you’re passionate about, that interests you, that you enjoy doing.
Chris Vermeulen (16:22): You like the people in the industry and, and all those things because you’re gonna spend most of your life doing that thing. And, and when I got hooked on the stock market, I mean, that’s it, I’m you? It’s my, it’s my favorite thing. And right now, I’m branching out a little bit. I want to help kids and others become successful through entrepreneurship programs, but I love trading investing. It’s my passion. It’s the never-ending challenge. And I love challenges. So the fact that everything changes every day and every week, I is, is amazing. That, to me is part of the fun part of trying to figure it out and navigate it. And then, it comes down to, you know, trading and investing in the stock market. I believe that you can actively trade the stock market. There are people out there who say, Hey, you can’t do that.
Chris Vermeulen (17:08): Well, I believe that you can somewhat time the market. You don’t need to be right all the time. You don’t need to pick the tops and the bottoms, and you can be wrong, and you can still make a lot of money. And, and that’s what a lot of people don’t understand. A lot of people will think, Hey, you can’t take time. The markets market timings, you know, a sucker’s game. Well, I, I can, you know, I can prove otherwise, I, I, you look at the charts, we can gate these things and manage positions. It’s not about just predicting prices. That’s what people think. It’s actually about managing your positions. You can still make money when a trade doesn’t go against or does go against you. It’s all how you manage that position. So, that is like one of the key things that I I focus on is I believe you can, more or less time the markets to some regard you can navigate through them, cuz there’s always something moving up that can counter another move. And, that’s kind of, how I see my principles with the markets and, and how I work. It’s, you know, focus on what you love, focus on, what you’re good at, make sure you enjoy it and just be really focused on what it is you wanna specialize in.
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (18:19): Is there something you wish you had known earlier in life, especially before you got into this business?
Chris Vermeulen (18:26): Ooh. Yeah, that’s a good question. I mean, I, I, I think I was actually pretty fortunate. My parents were entrepreneurs. They, I’ve watched them work, you know, 50, 60, 80 hours a week, like incredible hours. And I used to work with them. They used to get my sister and me in there, stuffing envelopes and doing all kinds of stuff for them. So, I know that you need to do hard work. I think I think the biggest thing that actually really hit me in the last year was if you want to Excel quickly, you need to hire professionals, get experts, help hire somebody who is, who knows what you need done. Usually, they want a lot more money, but those are the people the that you want. Cutting corners, it’s so easy to do; not getting the right people is a huge problem going forward cuz it can it can hold you back. It’s not as good as, as what it should be. It’s a very competitive world out there. So if you wanna make way and move ground, be successful and learn, you definitely need to hire people who are better than you. And hopefully, you know, you’re going to naturally improve on all aspects and life becomes a whole lot easier when things are done the proper way, the first time and you didn’t have to try and figure it out for someone,
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (19:47): What can we expect in upcoming podcast episodes?
Chris Vermeulen (19:51): Well, our, our goal here is for you and I, Jim, to, you know, introduce listeners to a wide range of individuals from all different walks of life. we’re gonna pretty much ask them similar questions to what you just asked me. We want to know all about them, how they got involved with that particular business or that investment or the trading in kind of lifestyle. What caused them to go that direction? What they found to be their sweet spot, because my sweet spot are, is swing trading, ETFs, mostly slower moving things, but other people’s sweet spot or day trading or currencies or precious metals or real estate. So it’s gonna be pretty interesting when, when you get to see how everyone sees the world through a different lens and where they found an area that you can build a business, find an investment and generate income, that is gonna be the whole goal. So it’s kind of gonna be like a mini-lesson and from each individual kind of woven in with their stories and yeah, that’s, the listeners should be able to walk away from this, hopefully feeling inspired and excited to go learn more about that, that topic or that investment
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (21:00): Chris, before we go, how can people find out more about the show? Do you have other plans to alert them to certain broad broadcasts or podcasts?
Chris Vermeulen (21:10): Sure. Yeah. Well, if you’re listening to this as a podcast right now, then you could probably click a subscribe button somewhere on the player here. So when we do post the new podcast, you’re gonna be alerted right away. You could also go to, thetechnicaltraders.com and get on our free email list. You’ll be notified there as well, along with all kinds of other weekly opportunities in the stock market. So that’s, that’s how people can get ahold of us. And, and of course, we would love your feedback. Love to know what topics you’d like us to talk about who you’d like us to have on the show. I mean this, this podcast is all about exploring all kinds of unique, interesting individuals from all walks of life. So, if you’ve got a comment, you’ve got an idea, make sure you, you send us an email or you put in a review and let us know what, what, what you’d like.
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (22:00): Chris, thank you so much for outlining what we plan to do. All
Chris Vermeulen (22:04): Right. Well, enjoy everybody. Thanks, Jim. And we’ll see you on the next episode.
Jim – The Technical Traders Podcast (22:08): My guest has been Chris Vermeulen, the executive producer of The Technical Traders podcast. I’m Jim Goddard
The Technical Traders Podcast (22:16): Thanks for joining us this week on the technical traders podcast. If you found value in our show, subscribe and give us a rating or share it with a friend. That would be greatly appreciated as well. TheTechnicalTraders.com your source for technically proven strategies to make more money with less risk. So you can take your trading to the next level comments made on the technical traders podcast or an expression of opinion only, and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument. This information is for general information in educational purposes, only guests on the show are not compensated for their participation to view our full disclaimer. Please visit our website: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/admin-ajax.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-10 16:31:302022-03-10 16:31:34The Technical Traders Podcast Show Introduced By Chris Vermeulen
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. How long will the Russia – Ukraine war last? How high is the price of oil and gas going to go? How quickly will central banks raise interest rates to counter high inflation? What assets should I put my money into? Knowing what the Best Asset Now (BAN) is, is critical for risk management and consistent growth no matter the market condition!
‘BUY THE DIP’ or ‘SELL THE RALLY’? – DJI Weekly Chart
As of 3/8/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded as high as 36952.65 on January 5, 2022
The DJIA put in a Covid 2020 Low of 18213.65 on March 23, 2020. When you double the price of this significant low, you get a price of 36427.30, which the DJIA reached on November 4, 2021. This was precisely 591 calendar days from the 2020 low. The 200% level seems to have capped the bull rally. If, in fact, this is the top and the start of a bear market, we should experience high volatility both up and down. However, the highs and lows should be lower as the market begins to trend lower. The volatility will also continue to increase as the market deflates and continues to lose capital.
It appears this scenario may very well coincide with the fundamental current events of high inflation, central banks unable to add stimulus, having to raise their interest rates, and current/future geopolitical events.
What-To-Do Before the Storm Hits
“Have A Plan and Stick-To-Your-Plan”
There are some basic strategies or practices that professional traders utilize to minimize trading risk and grow capital. Here are a few ideas:
Bull/Bear Markets – In an upmarket, you should buy the dips. In a down market, you should do the opposite and sell the rallies. Rallies in a down ‘bear’ market tend to be very fast and short-lived.
Diversification – Don’t have your eggs in too many baskets. It is better to navigate thru a storm by focusing your resources specifically rather than generally.
Leverage – Reduce leverage, position size, or know how you will respond to different percentage losses or gains. Understand what your investment objective is as well as your tolerance for risk. If you’re having trouble sleeping at night, you should reduce your holdings to the place where you are comfortable.
Leverage is a mathematical equation, and it does not have to be 1x, 2x, etc. It can also be 0.75x, 0.50x, etc. You get to decide what’s best for you and your family. Leverage is also a double-edged sword! Be careful, especially when the markets are on edge and volatile.
Where is the Institutional Money Going?
The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the largest market in the world. According to the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey, published on December 8, 2019, by the Bank for International Settlements, it has an average daily transactional volume of $6.6 trillion.
By tracking global money flow, we can get a pretty good idea of where the smart money is going. For now, let’s see what has happened during the last 6-months.
According to www.finviz.com, we notice that the US Dollar, despite its Covid stimulus spending spree, was the preferred currency. However, the Eurodollar has seen substantial outflows decreasing by -7.60%, which is entirely understandable with the Russia – Ukraine War at their doorstep.
Global central banks ponder how quickly to raise interest rates in order to curb high inflation!
According to TradingEconomics, the current global interest rates by major country are: United States 0.25%, Japan -0.10%, Switzerland -0.75%, Euro Region 0.00%, United Kingdom 0.50%, Canada 0.50%, and Australia 0.10%.
The US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its next policy meeting. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16. We need to pay close attention to this high-impact market event.
What strategies can help you minimize trading risk and grow capital?
Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Minimizing risk in order to grow your capital must remain a primary focus for all investors and traders.
Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!
I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/SNAG-0000.png486664adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-10 16:26:372022-03-10 16:26:41How You Can Minimize Trading Risk & Grow Capital During A Global Crisis
In today’s Trader Tip Video, Chris Vermeulen of TheTechnicalTraders.com talks about the SPY Dividend Stock SPYD. The market is currently down about 11% on the SP 500 versus only 2.5% on the SPYD, holding up a much tighter pattern. If SPYD rallies, it may test previous highs, a potential upside of about a 5% move.
We’ve seen money moving into these more defensive plays, commodities, and gold in the last couple of weeks and months. If the stock market collapses, dividend stocks can sell down more than the stock market. For example, during the COVID crash, the SPY fell about 35%, while SPYD dropped by over 47%. This is why position and risk management are essential to protect your capital and grow your wealth.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE SPY DIVIDEND ETF SPYD – WATCH THE VIDEO
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Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Trader-Tip-1.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-10 16:23:492022-03-10 16:23:59SPY Dividend Stock SPYD – Trader Tip Of The Week Video
Now is the time for traders to adapt to higher volatility and rapidly changing market conditions. One of the best ways to do this is to monitor different asset classes and track which investments are gaining and losing money flow. Knowing what the Best Asset Now is (BAN) is critical for consistent growth no matter the market condition.
With that said, buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat, for example, gained more than 40% last week.
‘Panic Commodity Buying’ in Wheat – Weekly Chart
According to the US Dept. of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice and 51% of wheat by mid-2022.
Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Global commodities, commodity funds, and commodity ETFs are attracting huge capital inflows as investors seek to cash in on the rally in oil, metals, and grains.
How does the Russia – Ukraine war affect global food supplies?
The conflict between major commodity producers Russia and Ukraine is causing countries that rely heavily on commodity imports to feed their citizens to enter into panic buying. The breadbaskets of Ukraine and Russia account for more than 25% of the global wheat trade and nearly 20% of the global corn trade.
Last week, it was reported that many countries have dangerously low grain supplies. Nader Saad, an Egypt Cabinet spokesman, has raised the alarm that currently, Egypt has only nine months’ worth of wheat in silos. The supply includes five months of strategic reserves and four months of domestic production to cover the bread needs of 102 million Egyptians. Additionally, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s economic minister, said on Thursday (3/3/22) that his country should keep “a low profile” regarding the conflict in eastern Europe, given that Israel imports 50 percent of its wheat from Russia and 30 percent from Ukraine.
The longer-term potential for much higher grain prices exists, but it’s worth noting that Friday’s close of nearly $12.00 a bushel for wheat is not that far away from the all-time record high of $13.30, recorded 14-years ago. According to Trading Economics, wheat has gone up 75.08% year-to-date while other commodity markets like Oats are up a whopping 85.13%, Coffee 74.68%, and Corn 34.07%.
How are other markets reacting to these global events?
As stock holdings and 401k’s are shrinking it may be time to re-evaluate your portfolio. There are ETFs available that can give you exposure to commodities, energy, and metals.
Here is an example of a few of these ETFs: +53.81% WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund +41.79% GSG iShares S&P TSCI Commodity -Indexed Trust +104.40 UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil +59.32% PALL Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares
How is the global investor reacting to rocketing commodity prices and increasing market volatility?
We can track global money flow by monitoring the following 1-month currency graph (www.finviz.com). The Australian Dollar is up +4.25%, the New Zealand Dollar +3.72%, and the Canadian Dollar +0.30% vs. the US Dollar due to the rising commodity prices like metals and energy. These country currencies are known as commodity currencies.
The Switzerland Franc +0.96%, the Japanese Yen +0.35%, and the US Dollar +0.00% are all benefiting from global capital seeking a safe haven. As volatility continues to spike, these country currencies will experience more inflows as capital comes out of depreciating assets and seeks stability.
We also notice that capital outflow is occurring from the European Union-Eurodollar -4.55% and the British Pound -2.22% due to their close proximity (risk) to the Russia – Ukraine war.
Global central banks will need to begin raising their interest rates to combat high inflation!
Due to the rapid acceleration of inflation, the US Federal Reserve may have been looking to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting two weeks from now. However, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FED may become more cautious and consider raising interest rates by only 25 basis points on March 15-16.
What strategies can help you navigate current market trends?
Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals are starting to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
Now is the time to keep your eye on the ball!
I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Chart1.png359624adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-08 08:18:482022-03-08 08:18:57Is It Too Late To Begin Adapting To Higher Volatility In The Market?
Chris sits down with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money to talk about commodities, geopolitical events, and their Precious Metals forecast. We are in this phase now where we are in a commodity-rich environment. Typically, stocks are going to start to top out and what become the leaders are commodities.
What a difference a month makes. As unforeseen geopolitical events roil the markets, gold and silver investors know these moves rarely stick. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see gold pop right up to the highs.
Overall, we are in that feeding frenzy with commodities and we are seeing them rally across the board. From what it looks like, the stock market is on its last legs and commodities are coming to life. A lot of other commodities have been doing well but gold and silver miners are now starting to turn up and make a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/sprott.jpg300400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-08 08:07:312022-03-08 08:07:40Commodities/PM Monthly Projections With Sprott – Video
Is a bear market on the way? My research suggests the downward sloping trend line (LIGHT ORANGE in the Daily/Weekly SPY chart below) may continue to act as solid resistance – possibly prompting a further breakdown in the markets for US major indexes.
As we’ve seen recently, news and other unexpected events prompt very large price volatility events in the US major indexes. For example, the VIX recently rose above 30 again, which shows volatility levels are currently 3x higher than normal levels.
Increased Volatility & The Start Of An Excess Phase Peak Should Be A Clear Warning
This increased volatility in the markets, coupled with the increased fear of the US Fed and the global unknowns (Ukraine, China, Debt Levels, and others), may be just enough pressure to crush any upside price trends over the next few months. Technically, my research suggests the $445 to $450 level is critical resistance. The SPY must climb above these levels to have any chance of moving higher.
Unless the US markets find some new support and attempt to rally back towards recent highs, an “Excess Phase Peak” pattern will likely continue to unfold throughout 2022. This unique price pattern appears to have already reached a Phase 2 or Phase 3 setup. Please take a look at this Weekly GE example of an Excess Phase Peak pattern and how it transitions through Phase 1 through Phase 4 before entering an extended Bearish price trend.
This Daily SPY chart highlights my analysis, showing the major downward sloping trend line, the Middle Resistance Zone, and the lower Support Zone. Combined, these are acting as a “Wedge” for price over the past few weeks – tightening into an Apex near $435~440.
If the US major indexes attempt to break this downward price trend, then the price must attempt to move solidly above this downward sloping price channel and try to rally back into the Resistance Zone (near $445~$450). Unless that happens, the price will likely transition into a deeper downward price move, attempting to break below recent lows, near $410, and possibly quickly moving down to the $360 level.
SPY Weekly Chart Shows Consolidation Near $435 – Possibly Starting A Phase 4 Excess Peak
Traders should stay keenly aware of the risks associated with the broad US and global market decline as the Ukraine war, and other unknowns continue to elevate fear and concerns related to the global economy. In my opinion, with the current excess global debt levels, extended speculative market bubbles, and the continued commodity price rally, we may be starting to transition away from an extended growth phase and into a deeper depreciation cycle phase.
My research suggests we entered a new Depreciation cycle phase in late 2019 and are already more than 25 months into a potential 9.5-year global Depreciation cycle. What comes next should not surprise anyone.
Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle fair stock price valuation levels as the conflict continues. This is not the same US/Global market Bullish trend we’ve become used to trading over the past 5+ years.
Looking Forward – preparing for a possible Bear market
Market dynamics and trends are changing from what we have experienced over the past 40 years for stocks and bonds. The 60/40 portfolio is costing you money now. Traders need an edge to stay ahead of these markets trends and to protect and profit from big trends.
The only way to navigate the financial markets safely, no matter the direction, is through technical analysis. By following assets and money flows, we identify trend changes and move our capital into whatever index, sector, industry, bond, commodity, country, and even currency ETF. By following the money, you become part of new emerging trends and can profit during weak stock or bond conditions.
Want Trading Strategies that Will Help You To Navigate Current Market Trends?
Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.
I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Chart_22-03-02_SPY_D.png581850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-03 15:52:522022-03-03 15:53:01S&P 500 At Tipping Point To Start A Bear Market And What You Need To See
Perhaps you’ve heard of the “Put / Call Ratio” (PCR) and been unsure of exactly what it is or when and how to use it.
First, a quick review of what Calls and Puts are. Calls are option contracts that increase in value from a RISE in the price of the underlying stock or index. Puts are option contracts that increase in value from a DROP in the price of the underlying stock or index.
Let’s jump in and see what’s “under the hood” and how we might use that to better inform our decision-making as traders and investors.
What Is the Put / Call Ratio?
The PCR is a contrarian indicator based on the idea that market participants tend to get too bearish or bullish shortly before a reversal is about to materialize. When the market is at a point of extreme bearishness, participants tend to buy more Puts than usual. Conversely, when the market is at a point of extreme bullishness, participants tend to buy more Calls than normal. Contrarian logic suggests that most participants tend to be wrong when the market is near inflection points.
Mathematically the Put / Call Ratio is simply the number of Puts divided by the number of Calls. A value of 1 would indicate that the same number of Calls and Puts are being purchased. A value greater than 1 indicates more Puts than Calls purchased. It follows that a value below 1 means that more Calls than Puts are purchased.
The PCR can be calculated using either open interest or volume of contracts. It can be calculated for individual stocks and for indexes. Most trading and charting platforms have several versions of the PCR available for the major indexes. Indexes generally have charts available, while individual stocks may only have daily numerical value readily available. The PCR is generally more useful as an overall market sentiment indicator for the major indexes like the S&P 500.
For most underlying, including major indexes like the S&P 500, the PCR tends to be below 1 much of the time. That makes some sense, as major indexes tend to have a long-term bullish bias. But in times of elevated fear, Put buying tends to be elevated in a rush to buy portfolio “insurance”. Outright bets on a market decline can add to that volume.
How Do I Use the pcr?
It helps to understand what “normal” behavior is for the number of Calls and Puts purchased for the particular index or stock. For an index like the S&P 500, a PCR of 0.9 or above suggests heavy Put buying and is typically seen as bullish from the contrarian view. For reference, at the height of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the PCR dropped to as low as 0.39. Lots of calls were being purchased as the market was peaking.
Let’s look at some recent examples where we see the Put / Call Ratio at extreme levels. Below we see a chart of the S&P 500 displayed with Heikin Ashi candles overlayed with the PCR (magenta line).
In the first instance (circled in magenta), we see a low in the PCR where significantly more Calls than Puts were purchased. When interpreted as a contrarian indicator, that suggests bearishness to come. And indeed, we do see five days of bearishness to follow.
We then see a sharp reversal to a relatively high PCR (blue circle), and we do see a bullish reversal that lasted for six days.
At the yellow circle, we see a spike up in the PCR accompanied by a sharp increase in the underlying volume. However, we see a few days delay before the bullish reversal materializes in this instance. And the market was rather volatile on those days, as evidenced by the tall candles with long tails.
At the green circle, we have a somewhat elevated PCR and another delayed reversal.
Conclusion
The PCR is not particularly useful in sideways markets. But it can be useful at market extremes, albeit at times with some delay.
Like many indicators, the PCR is far from 100% reliable unto itself. Used in conjunction with volume, volatility (VIX), support/resistance levels, trendlines, moving averages, and other technical indicators, the PCR can give us valuable clues about market sentiment and when a reversal may be in the making.
Now That You Know more About the put / call ration, Read On To Learn More About Options Trading
Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy your day!
Chris Vermeulen Founder & Chief Market Strategist TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/options-e1636471121734.jpg265400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-02 15:37:112022-03-02 15:37:20The Put / Call Ratio – A Technique Used To Gauge Market Extremes