Chris Vermeulen from The Technical Traders sits down with Jim Goddard on HoweStreet.com to discuss oil, natural gas, gasoline, and precious metals’ latest moves. Oil had a blow-off phase as we saw the price jump from about $90 a barrel up to almost about $130 a barrel. Such big moves can do damage to the charts or price. Though we are seeing a lot of heavy volumes and big selling going on in oil, there’s still a downside potential in crude.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE OIL BLOW-OFF PHASE, NATURAL GAS, GASOLINE – LISTEN TO THE PODCAST
TO EXPLORE THE strategies in the Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. YOU’vE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Howestreet.jpg300400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-11 08:28:302022-04-11 08:28:40Oil Blow-Off Phase, Sanctions & Shortages Video
Welcome to the Technical Traders podcast. The show that brings you technically proven strategies and trade ideas from experts around the world. We’re going to help you make more money with less risk so that you can take your trading to the next level. Now here’s your host, Jim Goddard.
Jim Goddard: 00:49 My guest is Greg Dickerson. He’s the CEO of Dickerson International. You can find him online at dickersoninternational.com. Welcome to the show.
Greg Dickerson: 01:00 Hey, thanks for having me.
Jim Goddard: 01:02 Greg, where are you? And can you tell us a bit about Dickerson International?
Greg Dickerson: 01:07 I’m located in Charlottesville, Virginia, just outside of Washington, DC, home of the University of Virginia and the Darden School of Business, one of the top business schools in the country. Still, Dickerson International is my school of entrepreneurship. I’ve been an entrepreneur since 1997. And my long story short is I’ve bought, developed and sold over 250-million-real estate, started 12 different companies from the ground up, built and renovated hundreds of custom homes, commercial buildings, developed mixed subdivisions, things like that. So, that’s me in a nutshell. So what I’ve done is I’ve packaged everything that I know and everything I’ve learned over the past 25 years doing all of those things into some online courses. And then, I also offer one-on-one coaching. I work with people all over the world, doing all kinds of things, teaching them how to be a real estate developer, how to invest in real estate, how to do big commercial and multi-family real estate deals, and how to raise capital. I teach people how to buy companies, how to start companies from the ground up, and how to grow and scale their existing businesses. So that’s what I do and what Dickerson International is all about.
Jim Goddard: 02:16 Wow. So you take a good idea, and you make it bigger and better.
Greg Dickerson: 02:21 Exactly. I love to build things. I’m a builder. I’m a natural-born entrepreneur. I started as a young kid knocking on doors. I’m talking, you know, seven, eight years old, cutting grass, raking leaves, washing cars, babysitting your kids, whatever you needed to get it done. I would knock on your door and say, Hey, my name’s Greg. I live down the street, and I need to make some money. And my dad taught me at a young age; that if you want something, you need to go figure out how to make the money to buy it because I’m not going to give it to you. So, I wasn’t raised, you know, we were a middle-class family. My dad was career military. Nobody in my family were entrepreneurs. And you know, that’s just how I am wired. And I love to create. I love to build things. I love to solve problems. Make something out of nothing, and that’s what entrepreneurs do. We make things happen and get things done. We solve problems, and it’s very creative. It’s a lot of fun. Every day’s different, and every situation’s different. And like I said, I work with people all over the world doing all kinds of different things. So it’s very intellectually stimulating for me.
Jim Goddard: 03:17 So how did you get started with investing?
Greg Dickerson: 03:22 So back in 2008, 2009, my career was mainly creating small businesses to generate cash and to invest in other assets. And for me, I was a remodeling handyman contractor and ended up turning that into a $30 million building development business in about seven years. And I built 12 other companies along the way at the same time. And as I did all that 2008, 2009 happened, that I had to pivot. And I didn’t know anything about stocks, really. I kind of followed markets a little bit, but I had never invested in stocks, never invested in anything like that. When 2008, 2009, it happened. I had a good friend who had a restaurant down in the area where I was located, and he came from Wall Street and left that career and opened a little breakfast joint.
Greg Dickerson: 04:07 I was living on the outer banks of North Carolina at the time, which is where flight originated, where the Wright brothers took off. And he said, Greg, you said, you know, this is an opportunity to create generational wealth like we’ve never seen. I’m like, what are you talking about? He said the market is crashing. It’s about to hit rock bottom, and we can get in now. And, you know, everything you’ve ever needed to pay for will be taken care of with just a small investment. So we got together in his little breakfast shop and started watching the markets and trading stocks. And I made my first investment at the bottom of March 2009 when the Dow was 6,000 and the S&P was 600. And I was buying Ford. I think my first purchases were Ford stock at a $1.90, City Bank at like $1.19, Bank of America, I don’t know, $1.00 something. So that was my first foray into traditional markets.
Jim Goddard: 04:58 Is there anybody you really admire or who influenced you to become involved in real estate, financial markets, or coaching?
Greg Dickerson: 05:06 Yeah, so it all started with Rich Dad, Poor Dad. That was the first book that I read that really opened my mind to, you know, creating businesses that generate cash to invest in other assets. When I read that book, I wanted to be a rich dad. I didn’t want to be Robert Kiyosaki. I wanted to be the rich dad that he was talking about. Because he owned all the real estate. He had all the businesses, and he was making all the investments. So you know, I studied that, and that’s where I just said, okay, that’s what I’m going to do. And then, of course, back in the day, Donald Trump was hot in terms of his real estate, so I read his book for real estate. I read Sam Zelle, you know, there were a few other real estate investors that I had followed.
Greg Dickerson: 05:43 And then, of course, Warren Buffet for stocks, he was all the rage back then, for stock markets still is, I guess, but really back then he was really carving a path in stocks and then of course, you know, other people along the way, but the big core, pivot point for me was reading Rich Dad, Poor Dad. That’s where that really opened my mind to understanding how to put a lot of assets together, generate cash flow to pay for the things you need to sustain your life, and then invest the rest.
Jim Goddard: 06:12 What’s your investing philosophy? What set of principles, beliefs, or experiences drive your decisions?
Greg Dickerson: 06:20 I’m opportunistic. So I look for value wherever I can find it. And I like to make fewer bigger moves. I like to get in at the bottom. So you know, in stocks, it was 2008, 2009, and then I made big moves on every major pullback in the markets, including March 2020, that was my last big deployment of capital into the markets. And those are the types of things that I look for because I’ve been around long enough in cycles in real estate and stocks where good times never last and bad times never last. So I look for the big pullbacks, and that’s where I make nice moves, and then I exit at the top. So my main philosophy that I always tell everybody is that it’s more important to know the top than the bottom.
Greg Dickerson: 07:03 And I exit at the top, take my chips off the table. I’m not afraid to go to cash and sit in cash and wait, so from equities, that’s kind of how I make those moves, and I compound cash. That’s always my goal to grow and scale a pile of cash real estate; it’s been the same way. I want to buy value, add value, create value, and then exit when the time is right. So that’s kind of how I approach things and look at things. And from a real estate standpoint, it could be from the ground up. It could be adaptive reuse; it could be a major value add. I’m not a margin player. I’m not looking for yield. I’m not a yield guy; I’m a margin guy. So I’m looking for big moves, big margins, not little yields.
Jim Goddard: 07:44 How important is it for a person to have some kind of philosophy they stick to when they’re investing?
Greg Dickerson: 07:52 It’s extremely important. So that’s the key to success in any business, any investment, you need to have a thesis, and you need to have the discipline to stick to your thesis, and you need to be self-aware enough to where if your thesis is wrong or not working, you need to pivot and make a new one. But if you’re day trading or swing trading, obviously you need a system, and you need the technicals that you operate by, and you want to journal those things and stay steady with that approach. And if you’re more opportunistic like me, then you just stick to your entry and exit valuations and your margins so that you know that you’re covered. So it’s extremely important. Discipline is huge.
Jim Goddard: 08:29 We’ll have more with Greg Dickerson right after this.
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Jim Goddard: 08:55 Welcome back. We’re speaking with Greg Dickerson. Greg, are there any investment myths that people should know about?
Greg Dickerson: 09:06 I really don’t know. I mean, you hear that you see that. And then, of course, you hear Santa Claus rallies, and we didn’t have that this year. I don’t know that those things hold true. They might. I haven’t really tracked them and backcheck them. But if you are going to adhere to something like that and buy into it, you definitely want to fact-check it and make sure that it’s accurate. And from what we’ve seen in the markets, really nothing is. Markets are cyclical. You know, these days, headline risk, you know, headlines can move markets in a major way. It’s a very different market now than it used to be. But like I say, the most important thing to know is the top. And I called the top 2018, 2019. I called the top recently back in November, December, and I invested in crypto as well as equities and real estate. So again, the key is to know that top.
Jim Goddard: 09:57 What favorite type of analysis or indicator do you find helps you time your investments?
Greg Dickerson: 10:03 In the markets, you know, it’s major moves. So I look for when I’m deploying, I’m looking for 10% or better pullbacks to make big moves on in terms of stocks and equities. Crypto’s a little different because crypto can correct 30, 40%. So I just look for those major pullbacks that are moving to previous, you know, support and resistance levels. I look at the moving averages; of course, the 200 days is a big one. Major moving averages and some, you know, retracement levels are kind of important when you’re looking at stocks and swing trading and, you know. And then, I also look at the macro. A lot of people say, show me the charts, and I’ll tell you the news. Well, news moves markets, especially right now with the geopolitical climate, with interest rate fed policy, we’ve been in a bull market since 2009 and, an easy Fed, monetary policy environment. So very different climate that we’re getting ready to move into now. So you really have to pay attention to the macro as well. So I look at the macro, then I take that, apply technicals to it and make my decisions based on that. But if I’m looking to deploy, I want to deploy on at least a 10% or better pullback in the equities.
Jim Goddard: 11:17 You talked about a big influence in your life in the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad; any other recommended reading you could give our listeners.
Greg Dickerson: 11:26 Yeah. So it depends on what you’re looking to do. Generally, what I’ve done in my career is I’ve found the best in the businesses doing what I want to do, and I go study them. So I love to read biographies. So I’ve recently read a great biography—Steve Schwartzman, Michael Eisner, Warren Buffet, Sam Zelle. Donald Trump; love him or hate him early in his career. I read how he did what he did. So Keith Hall a big developer in Texas. So, you know, I’d love to read biographies, some books, and learn from people you know, the intelligent investor by Ben Graham. Although, you know, today’s world is very different from those guys grew up in, in terms of value investing and things.
Greg Dickerson: 12:10 Of course, as we know, valuations have been kind of out the window. But as far as business and mindset books, all of the greats. So my core three books that really changed my life were Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, and the Power Positive Thinking by Norman Vincent Peale. So those two books, especially, and then How to Win Friends and Influence People, Dale Carnegie. But you know, anything by those guys and then all the classics like Anthony Robbins, Zig Ziegler, Jim Rohn, Brian Tracy. All of the sales, success, and mindset gurus, if you want to call them. But I’m very highly self-educated. I’m really into personal, professional development. I’ve never had any music on any of my devices, going all the way back to the Sony Walkman. It was all business books and mindset, personal, professional development. And then the, you know, then the CD Walkman, and then, you know, I’ve got the 80-gig iPod, nothing but business books on it. And then even today, that’s all I listen to or you know, like this business podcast and podcast, things like that.
Jim Goddard: 13:19 If you’re an investor or potential client for somebody, how can you spot a scam? You’ve been around long enough; I’m sure you can sniff one out in a second, but for people getting into investing, so many people say things like guaranteed returns, and you’ve been around long enough, so you know, there is no such thing. How do you sniff them out?
Greg Dickerson: 13:39 Well, that’s one, if somebody’s offering a guarantee or can’t fail, if it sounds too good to be true, those types of things. In today’s world, there are some things that are too good to be true that actually work. But, as far as the individual goes, if they don’t know their business and know their numbers at an intimate level, then that’s a red flag. You know, if somebody’s desperate for the deal, you have to send your money today, or you’re going to miss out. You know, that’s a red flag. And then, of course, you know, anybody who’s guaranteeing anything or telling you that, you know, the number just goes up that they’re doesn’t go down, and it’s never going down, and it will never go below a certain level. Those types of things are red flags. But, you know, today it’s pretty tricky. There are a lot of scams out there and very sophisticated scams.
Jim Goddard: 14:23 What’s the best advice you ever received?
Greg Dickerson: 14:26 Never stop learning.
Jim Goddard: 14:30 Simple as that.
Greg Dickerson: 14:32 Simple as that, never stop learning. And I mean, there are all kinds of different pieces of wisdom I’ve received along the years. But one thing I’ve learned in my career is the more you know, the more you realize you don’t know, and it’s what you don’t know that really holds you back. But even more important to that, you know, Mark Twain, “it’s what you think, you know, that just ain’t so.” You know, that can get you. Knowledge is everything. And then, you know, the application of that knowledge to the right vehicle at the right time and the right way with the right amount of leverage, you know, is really the key. But yeah, at the end of the day, I would not be where I’m at if I had not continued my education and just kept pouring into myself. So when you sum it all up, that’s probably the best advice I’ve ever received is just never stop learning. Never think that you’ve arrived. You can always go deeper. You can always learn more, and there’s always something out there that you absolutely don’t know that can just be a game-changer for you.
Jim Goddard: 15:28 My two favorite Mark Twain sayings, “the hardest thing in the world is to convince a fool that they’ve been fooled” and “golf, a perfectly good walk ruined.” Is there something you wish you would’ve known before you started trading and investing?
Greg Dickerson: 15:49 Yes, I mean, a lot more. I didn’t know anything before I started trading and investing. So, you know, I wish I would’ve had more education early on in that regard, you know, what I knew back then was work hard. You know, the harder you work, the better opportunities you’re going to have. So I just didn’t know what I didn’t know. So what I wish I knew back then was obviously what I know now was that you know how to raise capital and do bigger deals early on that I just didn’t think I could do. But when it comes to investing in, you know, equities and things like that, I just didn’t know. I just didn’t know anything about stocks, didn’t know anything about the markets and, you know, gold. I had one guy, you know, years ago it was probably 2004. The gold bugs around me were all older and, you know, 200, 300 ounces back then, and they were telling me Gold’s going to hit 1200 an ounce. And I’m like, you’re crazy. And man, if I would’ve put a little chunk of change in gold back then, it would’ve worked out pretty good.
Greg Dickerson: 16:43 And then, of course, the big one, I didn’t know anything about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency when that came around and, you know well, I would’ve loved to have known about that ten years ago and put, you know, a thousand bucks in 10 years ago would be worth some billions of dollars right now.
Jim Goddard: 16:56 Sure. Are non-fungible tokens, are they in the same category as Bitcoin was 12 years ago?
Greg Dickerson: 17:06 No, no, not at all. Bitcoin’s a very different thing in and of itself. It’s a digital gold. It’s digital property. So it’s very different than NFTs. NFTs are a lot of different things, but Bitcoin is one thing, and it’s a limited supply of one thing that’ll ever be created. And it’s got a certain amount of interest at an institutional level, where NFTs are fads and trends that will come and go.
Jim Goddard: 17:35 Before we go, is there any topic or financial or business practice that you’re really passionate about?
Greg Dickerson: 17:43 In terms of business practice, leadership, obviously, that’s one of the keys to the success that I’ve had is developing myself into a great leader and teaching and helping other people do that from a business practice and, from an investment standpoint, just, curiosity in general, just always being curious, always trying to figure out why and how things work and, you know, understanding that everything these days, it’s all trends. Markets are cyclical; things come and go, good times never last and bad times never last. It’s all about the trend, understanding the trend, and investing and taking advantage of that trend and not going against it.
Jim Goddard: 18:21 Greg, thank you so much for being here on technical traders.
Greg Dickerson: 18:25 I appreciate it. Thank you for having me.
Jim Goddard: 18:27 My guest has been Greg Dickerson, CEO of Dickerson International. You can find him online at dickersoninternational.com. I’m Jim Goddard.
The technical trader’s podcast or an expression of opinion only, and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument. This information is for general information and educational purposes. Only guests on the show are not compensated for their participation to view our full disclaimer, visit our website: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris sits down with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money to talk about their Precious Metals forecast and the maximum financial risk. The big question is, in what phase are we in the stock market cycles? Are we in this pullback phase, or have we already seen the market top out? Energy has been on fire, precious metals are just starting to break out, and utilities are at an all-time high.
Behind the scenes, it feels like we are in this red zone, the peak, the maximum financial risk we think you can put investment capital into. The key takeaway from this overall stock market cycle is where we are “in the risk.” If you put money right now in the market, there’s very little upside left before the market has a re-evaluation event which is more or less a bear market.
Overall, we are at a unique time in the markets. Remember, typically the stock market moves before the economy. So if the economy is collapsing we will usually see the stock market bottom before that. Conversely, the stock market will peak right before the economy follows suit.
Click on the link below to watch the LATEST PM FORECAST & MAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISK report
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/sprott.jpg300400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-11 07:18:122022-04-11 07:18:16Maximum Financial Risk & PM Monthly Projections With Sprott – Video
Since the USD plays such a strong role in global economics, we thought it appropriate to see how the USD performance is vs. other currencies and investments.
For the U.S. consumer, a strong USD means U.S. goods are more expensive in foreign markets. For U.S. companies that buy or sell products/services globally, a strong USD means they are less competitive. A strong dollar is a significant headwind that erodes the profits of U.S. multinationals.
Since we trade and invest in ETFs, it is especially interesting to see how the USD has been trading in 2022 compared to Gold (GLD), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Gold is the top performer, followed by the Australian dollar (AUD) and the U.S. dollar (DXY). We can also see on the following chart the recent recovery rally in both the SPY and QQQ. Amazingly the QQQ has recovered half of its 2022 loss in just the last few weeks.
DXY – US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX – DAILY COMPARISON CHART
The following chart from www.finviz.com shows us that the USD has strengthened vs. the Japanese yen, Eurodollar, British pound, and Switzerland franc. But also that the USD has weakened vs. the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar.
The AUD, NZD, and CAD reflect the impact of rising energy and commodity prices. The JPY reflects Japan’s negative interest rate as well as its dovish economic policy. While the EUR, GBP, and CHF are suffering from capital outflows due to the impact of Europe’s Russia Ukraine war.
US DOLLAR YEAR TO DATE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE VS MAJORS
Since May 25, 2021, the USD has been steadily appreciating as a stand-alone market. We can also see that the USD has been in a bullish upward-sloping channel. The USD has offered many buying opportunities at both its bottom trendline as well as its Fibonacci support levels. It continues to make higher highs and higher lows.
The USD remains attractive as it is the primary reserve currency for government central banks. The FED, with its recent rate hike, has signaled that it is planning on additional increases. The USD is considered a safe-haven investment and benefits from rising energy prices as the U.S. is a major producer of global oil and natural gas.
The Australian dollar enjoyed a strong rally in 2020 as it gained more than +45%. After hitting resistance at its 1.618 Fibonacci extension, the AUD corrected about 38% of its up-swing. This correction ended when buying resumed at the AUD previous high or the 1.000 support level. Since Jan 2022, the AUD has already appreciated about 9%. This is similar in both percentage and time frame to the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) equity markets.
AUD USD – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR – DAILY CHART
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and in the last six trades we entered this month, four have been closed at a profit, two remain open, and we have locked in partial profits on those as well! Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Picture1-1.png415624adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-11 07:16:172022-04-11 07:16:26U.S. Dollar (USD) Is On Our Radar!
At minute 08:55, Chris Vermeulen of TheTechnicalTraders.com joins Chuck Jaffe from Money Life to talk about the technicals of the stock market.
There is a lot going on beyond the technicals in the markets right now and many of these factors indicate that we are in the late stages of the stock market cycle. Momentum to the upside is slowing down and even as growth stocks are coming to life there is less supporting the overall markets.
In 2020 everyone piled into the market causing a massive euphoric phase. Now we’ve corrected and lost momentum thereby entering into the complacency phase. Typically the next comes a bear market and though we are not there yet if no stimulus arrives to change the current course, this phase is likely where we are heading next.
So, as technical traders, how do we benefit from falling stock prices?
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE TECHNICALS OF THE MARKET – LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW
TO EXPLORE THE strategies in the Total ETF Portfolio, PLEASE VISIT US AT The Technical Traders. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!
Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/moneylife.jpg191332adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-06 10:08:022022-04-06 10:08:07Stock Market Technicals Nearing ‘Peak, Maximum Financial Risk’
The calm of the last 3-weeks has resulted in a risk-on environment. This, in turn, has led to a nice recovery rally in stocks. For the time being, volatility has subsided. However, we believe there are many underlying market risks that can still resurface without any warning.
From late 2015 to August 2020, the price of gold doubled, going from approximately $1040 to $2080. Gold then experienced a profit-taking $400 pullback. Gold’s rally over the past 12-months failed to break through its $2080 price level. After retreating back to $200, gold seems to have found support at the $1900 level.
In reviewing the following spot gold chart, it appears we have broken out of an accumulation phase and seem to be preparing to move above the $2080 high.
GLD – SPDR Gold Shares is the largest physically-backed gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the world. According to its founder, State Street Global Advisor’s website www.spdrgoldshares.com “the economic forces that determine the price of gold are different from the economic forces that determine the price of many other asset classes such as equities, bonds or real estate.”
Utilizing the (www.tradingview.com) Fibonacci projection tool, we see that the GLD price accumulation from July 2016 through August 2018 resulted in a 2-year rally and a profit of $82 or an approximate gain of +73%.
Additionally, we see that the GLD top made in August 2020 was at the Fibonacci 4.618 level of $193.44. The 7-month correction in GLD found support at the Fibonacci 2.618 level of $157.98. The rally in GLD during the last 12-months also failed a second time at the Fibonacci 4.618 level.
GLD now appears to have broken out of its accumulation phase and seems to be preparing to trade above the $194 high.
Newmont – Gold Mining Company (NEM) is up +33.46% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.62%. According to www.newmont.com, “Newmont is the world’s leading gold company and a producer of copper, silver, zinc, and lead.
Newmont’s bull market started back in September 2015. During the past 6-years, Newmont’s stock price has experienced several strong rallies that ranged from +$30 to +$40 each. Newmont’s recent price level is now four times greater than the low it made in 2016.
Utilizing the same Fibonacci tool, but this time measuring from the $15 lows to the $30 lows, we learn that Newmont had a strong reaction down after reaching the key $75 level. However, this reaction found buying support at the Fibonacci 2.618 level of $52.67. Newmont has since rallied by $30, which has allowed its price to blow through its previous $75 top resistance level.
Newmont may be showing us that the gold spot and the GLD-ETF will both make new highs.
It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels and two of which have now been closed at a profit. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Successfully trading is not limited to when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing utilizing stop-loss orders helps preserve your investment capital and allows traders to manage their portfolios according to their desired risk parameters. Additionally, scaling out of positions by taking profits and moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can complement ones’ success.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Picture1.png338624adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-06 10:03:532022-04-06 10:03:58Waiting For GLD To Make New Highs – Gold Rally Is Still Intact
Jim Goddard: 01:00 George, first off, can you maybe just tell us a little bit about Market Logics?
George Hartman: Well, Market Logics is a firm that is dedicated to working in the financial services industry. Generally, more specifically, with retail financial advisors, brokers, and so on. And our attempt is to elevate their business to the highest level possible.
Jim Goddard: 01:22 You’ve switched from being a kind of a person who provided financial services into becoming a business coach and mentor for financial advisors. How did you get started in that?
George Hartman: Well, I got started way back when. This is my 50th year in the business, so pretty proud of that, which means I started at the age of six, of course. I answered a blind newspaper ad for a management position, which turned out to be a recruiting ad for a life insurance company. Spent a few years there. The management position never materialized. I had some success as an advisor and was invited into head office in the training department and kind of worked around and ultimately ended up as the head of a dealer firm in Vancouver, by the way. And then on to become a vice president of marketing of a mutual fund company. So in that role, my job was to represent our funds to financial advisors across the country.
George Hartman: And I found the best way to do that was to teach them how to communicate about the value of the funds and also align them with an investment philosophy that made sense to me at the time. And it’s just graduated from there. I moved from there. I wrote a book on asset allocation, probably the first retail book on that subject. And as people started to ask me to speak about it and to guide them and train them, and as they’ve gotten older and I’ve gotten older, then I went into coaching business to help them again, as I said, elevate their business. And now, in particular, we spend a lot of time on succession planning because they’re getting old like me.
Jim Goddard: 03:06 Is there anybody you really admire or influenced you to become involved in the financial markets or coaching?
George Hartman: I think it probably goes back to my early days in the insurance industry, and I moved into the head office, and I was being toured around the executive suite and introduced to the senior management in the firm. And my role was as a training person. I think it was a vice president of marketing who actually later became a great mentor of mine in life. And his words to me were. “George, we are not going to know how good a job you’ve done for us here until two years after you’re gone.” And that’s kind of a philosophy by which I have lived and tried to perform my activities as a coach, for example, not to get immediate results necessarily, but to get long-term growth.
Jim Goddard: 04:00 We’ll have more with George Hartman right after this.
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Jim Goddard: 04:27 Welcome back. We’re speaking with George Hartman. What is your business and investing philosophy? What set of principles, beliefs, or experiences drive your decisions?
George Hartman: In the role of a mutual fund company representative, there were certain investment mandates associated with all the funds quite confusing at the time. And it was a time in the industry when new funds were coming out, investing in new markets overseas, and so on. And I was looking for a way to communicate the value of putting these funds together in a portfolio. I attended a pension management conference in New York City. And one of the speakers talked about the whole concept of asset allocation, which I had never heard of before. Despite being in the financial services industry for so long. And I thought, well, that can easily be applied at the individual investor level. And so I became interested in modern portfolio theory and behavioral finance and all of those types of things, wrote a book, and just began speaking and teaching.
Jim Goddard: 05:34 You’re the author of three bestselling books. What can you tell us about them? That’s a lot of books for the average person.
George Hartman: Well, the first one was called Risk is a four-letter word. And it was about taking mutual funds and building a portfolio according to modern portfolio theory and using asset allocation as a strategy. Then along the way, as I mentioned, my clientele for coaching started to get older and older, and I shifted my emphasis to practice management to teach them how to run their business effectively. Very few advisors in the industry who run a business. They come in to practice their craft as advisors, but like many professionals, they need eventually to get serious about managing a growing business. And so, I focused on that. And then as those clients have aged and are looking forward to their own retirement, then succession planning, exit planning has become the more popular topic. So all three books, Exit Is Not A Four Letter Word is the most recent one. It’s on succession planning. Blunder Wonder Thunder was the middle one that was on practice management, and Risk is a Four Letter Word was the first one on asset allocation.
Jim Goddard: 06:47 George, how important is it for someone to have their own investment philosophy or practices? I know some people are natural risk-takers, others think GICs are the way to go because you don’t have to think about it and their low risk. How important is it to have your own style of investing?
George Hartman: I think it’s very important, and I think you hit on the right criteria, and that is a proper assessment of risk. Which is a whole topic that is an area of study that has become increasingly sophisticated over, over the past few years. You know, previously, asset allocation was kind of a self-assessment exercise, and now there’s some actual scientific, almost AI-like evaluations that are going on. I think it’s important for long-term stay stability. They call it in the market at the right time.
Jim Goddard: 07:43 At the time of our interview, the markets seem toppy, and a lot of people think, well, you can’t put money in there. Are there certain times where yeah, you just have to walk away and hold onto your cash? And you know, wait for better times are, even in bad times. Can you still go in and make money?
George Hartman: I think there are opportunities in every market. I’m not sure they should be pursued by everyone. The challenge, of course, with timing the market is you have to get it right twice; once in, once out, once out, once in sort of thing. So I’d rather have a long-term strategy with kind of guardrails on the side. There are times when I’ll deviate from perhaps the portfolio max asset allocation that I chose and then work my way back to it when things are more favorable.
Jim Goddard: 08:34 George, what’s the best advice you ever got, and who gave it to you?
George Hartman: Oh gosh. The best advice I ever got actually was from another advisor portfolio manager. I should describe him as and looking at. I asked him the question about, you know, should I keep this stock, or should I sell it? And the best advice he gave me was to ask yourself, if you didn’t own it today, would you buy it? And if the answer to that is no, then sell it. If the answer to that is yes, then keep it.
Jim Goddard: 09:13 So pretty simple. George, I’ve heard you’re working on a new program to help financial advisors grow their businesses and create a succession plan. What is that new program?
George Hartman: Well, the official name of it is Succeeding at Succession. We hope to launch it in May. It’s an online program that walks advisors through the process of putting together a succession strategy. It talks about getting ready emotionally and financially. It talks about picking the right time, choosing the right successor, selecting the best exit option, and then putting a deal together. And that’s kind of the process. Most advisors are ill-prepared to do that. And most entrepreneurs, in general, don’t think far enough ahead and plan well enough for their eventual exit from their business. So that’s something we’ve been coaching on and talking about, lecturing and speaking at conferences, and my latest book is about that. So I just decided to move some of it online.
Jim Goddard: The Rogers broadcasting Dynasty is a perfect example of when things, perhaps, weren’t lined up right.
George Hartman: Exactly. It doesn’t have to be in a big deal either. I mean, the fact is, I built three books of business through my career, never sold one of them. In those days, you just kind of walked down the hall, found somebody you trusted, and said, will you take care of my clients. And as I moved around the industry and across the country and so on, today, there’s a big industry in buying and selling financial advisory practices or books or business. And some of them are trading hands for millions of dollars. We just did an evaluation on one that’s about 25 million. So it’s a big deal today. So we can’t approach it in a casual fashion. We’ve got to take control of the exit.
Jim Goddard: 11:00 What’s something you wish you had known before you started trading and investing?
George Hartman: Probably it would’ve been a better understanding of behavioral finance, my own. What motivated me to act at times inappropriately and then understand later what I had done wrong. So I became a bit of a student of behavioral finance. I wish I had done that earlier.
Jim Goddard: Now, of course, in very volatile markets, people are always being given advice or being told, oh, you have to sign up with this person. They’re a true winner. But along with good advisors, how do you avoid those scammers out there? They sound like they have a great program, but at the end of the day, you have no money and they’ve got all of it.
George Hartman: Well, and we hope that doesn’t happen too frequently, obviously, but it’s unfortunate the amount of money that’s at play in the industry or in people’s investment accounts and so on makes it attractive to all kinds of people, including those who are not so scrupulous. So the best way I’ve always found is having someone that I trust to advocate on their behalf. So someone willing to provide a referral, show me their experience, demonstrate and so to the type of work they’ve done for them, and so on. I’ve always found that to be the best. You know, online reviews, I suspect I would say, they’re people who stand out in the industry. No question, and usually, they’re very successful at what they do because they do their job well.
Jim Goddard: 12:52 Are there any investing myths that you’d like to bust?
George Hartman: I think the big one we alluded to already is that I just do not believe that we can accurately predict markets to the extent that we can do it consistently. I have a philosophy that says it’s better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. And I think that applies to investing very much. So, find a strategy that keeps you within guardrails or boundaries that you’re comfortable with; recognize that nothing goes straight up, nothing goes straight down forever, in either direction, so establish your path and stay on it.
Jim Goddard: 13:40 George, before we go, is there anything else that you think we should have covered and let people know that you’re pretty passionate about something?
George Hartman: I’m extremely passionate about the value of financial advice. No question. The markets are becoming, as you indicated, increasingly volatile; products are becoming too complex. There are too many of them to choose from. We’ve gone through periods of do-it-yourself investing that generally hasn’t proven to be true. So I would say, you know, financial advice in whatever form it comes, that you trust, whether it’s someone that you follow or whether it’s someone that you deal with directly or whatever, become educated, become smart about it. There are a lot of really good financial advisors out there who take their jobs seriously and are well qualified to assist.
Jim Goddard: George, thank you so much for chatting with us.
George Hartman: Yes, my pleasure.
Jim Goddard: We’ve been speaking with George Hartman, the President and CEO of Market Logics. Where can we find you online?
George Hartman: Marketlogic.ca.
Jim Goddard: I’m Jim Goddard. Thanks for joining us this week on the Technical Traders podcast. If you found value in our show, subscribe and give us a rating or share it with a friend that would be greatly appreciated as well. Thetechnicaltraders.com is your source for technically proven strategies to make more money with less risk. So you can take your trading to the next level. Comments made on the Technical Traders podcast are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument. This information is for general information and educational purposes only. Guests on the show are not compensated for their participation. If you are a full disclaimer, please visit our website at www.thetechnicaltraders.com.
If you found value in our show, subscribe and give us a rating or share it with a friend that would be greatly appreciated as well.
The technical trader’s podcast or an expression of opinion only, and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any financial instrument. This information is for general information and educational purposes. Only guests on the show are not compensated for their participation to view our full disclaimer, visit our website: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
The yield curve plots the current yield of a range of government notes and bonds in the “primary market.” The worldwide bond market – including private and government debt — currently represents about $120 trillion in outstanding obligations. The United States accounts for roughly $46 trillion (39%).
The U.S. government finances its spending by collecting taxes and issuing debt. More specifically, the U.S. Treasury funds deficit spending by issuing debt instruments with a range of maturities.
Treasury Bills have maturities from one month to one year.
Treasury Notes have maturities from two to ten years.
Very long-term debt is issued as Treasury Bonds with 20- and 30-year maturities.
Treasury yields rise and fall depending on demand and expectations for the economy over various timeframes. Competitive bidders set yields in a “primary market” auction process with an inverse relationship between prices and yield. Note that market participants, not the U.S. Federal Reserve (a.k.a. Fed), determine these prices and yields. The Fed sets a target for a very short-term (overnight) Fed Funds Rate and a Discount Rate. Their policy of lowering or raising those rates holds significant influence but does not have direct control over the debt auctioning process.
Here’s a U.S. yield curve plot showing both a normal and an inverted curve. The red line shows what is typically viewed as a “normal” curve where longer-term debt has a higher yield than shorter-term debt. That reflects a view that inflation will erode returns over a longer period, and therefore, a higher yield is expected. The blue line shows an inverted curve where shorter-term debt has a higher yield than longer-term.
Why Does the Curve Invert?
The yield curve is typically described as steepening, flattening, or inverting.
A steep curve reflects expectations of higher inflation and interest rates that come with a more robust economy.
The curve typically flattens or even inverts when Fed policy is in a tightening cycle of raising rates in the near term. That implies that investors have less confidence in the longer-term economic outlook and expect that the Fed may have to cut rates at some point in the future to stimulate the economy.
What Does an Inverted Curve Mean?
In the past 60 years, every U.S recession has been preceded by at least a partially inverted yield curve. That delay has ranged between 6 and 36 months with an average of 22 months.
But every yield curve inversion has not been followed by a recession. As a predictor of a recession, an inverted yield curve suggests but does not guarantee a recession.
Remember that a recession is technically defined as two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. There can undoubtedly be economic slowdowns that are shallow and temporary that do not qualify as a full-blown recession.
Perhaps it’s more accurate to say that an inverted yield curve is a relatively reliable predictor of an economic slowdown but not necessarily a recession.
Is it Different This Time?
Maybe. Over the last two years, the Fed took a very unusual step of implementing “Quantitative Easing” to stimulate economic recovery after the “Covid Crash” in March 2020. The Fed has been adding to its balance sheet by buying longer-dated bonds. As the economy has strengthened, the Fed has announced that it will shift to selling bonds to reduce its balance sheet.
Many observers think that this action by the Fed has kept the long-term yields — in particular, the 10-year — artificially low, and those yields are likely to rebound when the Fed stops selling its excess. If that were to happen, then the yield curve could suddenly steepen.
There’s also debate over which parts of the yield curve to compare. Historically, comparing the 2- and 10-year yields (the “2/10”) has been a widely used benchmark. Some observers say comparing 3-month and 10-year yields is a better indicator. And without an inversion in the 3mo/10yr, there is much more doubt about an imminent recession.
What Does This Mean for Stocks?
We shouldn’t make investing decisions based just on the yield curve discussion. It’s certainly interesting and it may well be a predictor of an economic slowdown if not a recession. But it is only one piece of a many-pieced puzzle.
As a trader and investor, I focus more on technical indicators of stock price action and stock index valuations. Even in a recession, some sectors do well while others do poorly. Money is always moving. That’s the ball that I’m keeping my eye on.
want To Learn More About Options Trading?
Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.
If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy your day!
Chris Vermeulen Founder & Chief Market Strategist TheTechnicalTraders.com
According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion. At Technical Traders, we track a variety of markets, asset classes, and global money flow looking for clues that will help us in our quest for ETF returns. Interestingly when foreign exchange is charted as a benchmark to the SPY (S&P 500), we can see that FX has also been in a risk-on environment for the past 2-years.
Recently we looked at volatility utilizing the CBOE Volatility Index known as VIX. But there are alternative ways or tools that we can use to analyze asset prices.
GLOBAL MONEY FLOW HAS BEEN RISK-ON
As seen in energy, metals, food commodities, and real estate, the recent surge in inflation has also been taking place in foreign exchange. Commodity currencies typically refer to the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollar. To a certain extent, the U.S. dollar as well due to its global ranking as one of the top producers of worldwide oil and gas.
Typically, a currency like the Australian dollar will experience global money in-flows in a risk-on environment. Whereas in a risk-off environment, the opposite occurs as money flows out of currencies like the Australian dollar and back into what are considered safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and the U.S. dollar.
Recently money has been re-allocating to different assets as global investors seek returns. The FX markets have also benefited from capital in-flows. Looking at the last 2-years, beginning from the Covid lows put in on March 2020, we see the SPY went from a -30% loss to early January, where the SPY touched +50%.
Interestingly, the AUDJPY (Australian dollar vs. Japanese yen) went from -15% to more than +20% or a total change of 35% during the same timeframe. But how do we utilize this information to determine where we are in the current market cycle? Let’s walk through this process together to see what clues the FX market may have to guide our ETF selection and trading.
Based on the historical analysis, the GBPJPY (British pound vs. Japanese yen) tends to track the SPY, and therefore we will do a quick breakdown of the GBPJPY.
Immediately we can see on the following monthly chart that the GBPJPY reacts nicely to its 72-month or 6-year upper and lower channel. In 2011 the GBPJPY made a low and turned up at its 6-year lower channel.
During the 2015 to 2016 time frame, the GBPJPY then put in a head and shoulders top formation over a 12-month period at the 6-year upper channel. It’s important to note that the head of the top was at 166.6% of the GBPJPY all-time low in the GBPJPY, and the shoulders were made at the Fibonacci 161.8% of the GBPJPY all-time low.
The 2016 drop was 17-months down, and the 2017 reaction back up was 17-months up. The 2019-20 drop was 26-months down, and to date, the 2020-21 move back up has just completed 26-months up. Note: indicator includes or counts both the low-month and the high-month in its counts. The main point here is that the GBPJPY, in its recent past, has been mirroring its previous price wave.
Both 2016 and 2017 lows were made at 50% of the GBPJPY all-time high. But the 2020 low also turned at the 6-year lower channel.
Now we find the GBPJPY currently reacting to its 6-year upper channel after booking a 26-bar (month) rally.
It is important to note that this article is written to give us insights into some alternative research to challenge us to find clues in price. Time will provide confirmation of this research or not, but if the price continues to react at these levels, we may need to consider that market psychology or trend may be beginning to shift.
GBPJPY – BRITISH POUND VS JAPANESE YEN – MONTHLY CHART
As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers. Somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels and two of which have now been closed at a profit. Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list.
Being successful at trading is more than knowing when to buy or sell. Money and risk management play a critical role in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Correct position sizing along with the utilization of stop-loss orders can help preserve your valuable investment capital. Taking profits in stages by scaling out of positions and when appropriate moving stop-loss orders to breakeven can further boost your trading performance with the benefit of reducing your portfolio risk.
WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE The CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?
Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. We believe the markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and have started a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into Metals and other safe-havens.
We invite you to join our group of active traders and investors to learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
Chris Vermeulen Chief Market Strategist Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Picture1.jpg406624adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-04-06 09:48:422022-04-06 09:48:52Can Tracking Global Money Flow Provide Clues To Stay In The Black?
Small/Micro-Cap ETFs are the topic of today’s Trader Tip Video by Chris Vermeulen of TheTechnicalTraders.com. Small-cap stocks like the IWM and the Russel 2000 have had a strong rally, basing for a long time, and holding up very well. And now they are really popping and moving up.
Using the Fibonacci extension, we can see the small/micro caps are showing another potential 4% move to the upside. Overall, what is really important is that the small/micro caps tend to lead stock market rallies.
TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE SMALL/MICRO-CAP ETFs – WATCH THE VIDEO
Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!
Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!
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Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Trader-Tip-1.jpg225400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2022-03-30 07:13:562022-03-30 07:14:00Small/Micro-Cap ETFs – Trader Tip Of The Week Video
