In the trader tip video, Chris talks about the US Dollar Index ETF UUP. We have been talking about the UUP for the past couple of months which has been one of the strongest currencies. UUP has also been trending higher while the rest of the stock and bond market has been falling.

We also talked about the BIL last week which is the one to three-year T – Note. It is pretty much a cash position. You can earn a little bit of interest while sitting in cash. Overall, those really have been the two major plays. We’ve been in these plays, watching the cash and the dollar market really since February.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE UUP TRADE SETUP – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE STRATEGIES THAT CHRIS USES, PLEASE VISIT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

The U.S. Dollar uptrend has been going on since January 6th, 2021:

  • U.S. Dollar is at a 14-year high
  • 2020-2022 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD appreciated +18.33% to date
  • 2016-2020 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD depreciated – 12.80%
  • 2012-2016 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD appreciated +37.20%

International investors interested in buying U.S. real estate are having issues as converting their country’s currency into the USD significantly reduces the amount of real estate they can purchase.

According to an article by Patrick Clark of Bloomberg on July 11, 2022, “Across the country, nearly 60,000 homes sales fell through according to an analysis by Redfin Corp.” “That was equal to 15% of transactions that went into a contract that month, the highest share of cancellations since April 2020, when early Covid lockdowns froze the housing market.”

Redfin NASDAQ RDFN, which offers a full-service real estate brokerage discounted service, has suffered a staggering loss of -92.80% in its stock price after putting in its February 2021 high.

D.R. Horton NYSE DHI, America’s largest homebuilder as of January 20, 2022, responsible for 71,292 home closings totaling $21.5 billion in revenue for 2021, has dropped -46.44% from its high.

Other housing-related commodity markets such as copper -38.09% and lumber -70.24% are also signaling a recession.

U.S. DOLLAR +18.33%

  • UUP +18.33% U.S. Dollar ETF
  • FXC -3.14% Canadian Dollar ETF; Spread CAD to the USD 21.47%
  • FXA -10.73% Australian Dollar ETF; Spread AUD to the USD 29.06%
  • FXF -11.06% Swiss Franc ETF; Spread CHF to the USD 29.39%
  • FXB -12.33% British Pound ETF; Spread GBP to the USD 30.66%
  • FXE -18.42% Eurodollar ETF; Spread EUD to the USD 36.75%
  • FXY -25.86% Japanese Yen ETF; Spread JPY to the USD 44.18%

INVESCO DB USD INDEX BULLISH FUND ETF • UUP • ARCA • DAILY

UUP Invesco DB USD Bullish Fund ETF chart

REDFIN -92.80%

  • February 2021 to present
  • -$91.84 per share or -92.80%
  • 68 weeks down; 476 days down

REDFIN CORPORATION • RDFN • NASDAQ • WEEKLY

Redfin chart

DR HORTON -46.44%

  • December 2021 to present
  • -$51.42 per share or -46.44%
  • 26 weeks down; 182 days down

D.R. HORTON INC. • DHI • NYSE • WEEKLY

DR Horton chart

COPPER -38.09%

  • March 2022 to present
  • -$1.91 per pound or -38.09%
  • 18 weeks down; 126 days down

CFDS ON COPPER (US$/LB) • XCUUSD • OANDA • WEEKLY

CFDS on Copper chart

LUMBER -70.24%

  • May 2021 to present
  • -$1218.50 per board foot or -70.24%
  • 57 weeks down; 399 days down

RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES (US$/BOARD FOOT) • LBS1 • CME • WEEKLY

Random length lumber futures chart

VALUABLE INSIGHTS FROM SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

The New Market Wizards by Jack D Schwager (www.Amazon.com) is packed with insights from successful traders who have shared their wisdom based on firsthand trading experiences. The following snippets are from his super trader interviews that seem relevant for today’s market:

Randy McKay:

  • “I realized that prices moved based on the psychology of the people who were trading.” “You could actually see anxiety, greed, and fear in the markets.”
  • “I never try to buy a bottom or sell a top.” “You don’t want to have a position before a move has started.” “You want to wait until the move is already underway before you get into the market.”
  • “When I get hurt in the market, I get the hell out.” “It doesn’t matter at all where the market is trading.” “I just get out, because I believe that once you’re hurt in the market, your decisions are going to be far less objective than they are when you’re doing well.” “If you stick around when the market is severely against you, sooner or later they’re going to carry you out.”
  • “I basically learned that you must get out of your losses immediately.” It’s not merely a matter of how much you can afford to risk on a given trade, but you also have to consider how many potential future winners you might miss because of the effect of the larger loss on your mental attitude and trading size.”

LEARN FROM OUR TEAM OF SEASONED TRADERS

In today’s market environment, it’s imperative to assess our trading plans, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. As professional technical traders, we always follow the price. At first glance, this seems very straightforward and simple. But emotions can interfere with a trader’s success when they buck the trend (price). Remember, our ego aside, protecting our hard-earned capital is essential to our survival and success.

Successfully managing our drawdowns ensures our trading success. The larger the loss, the more difficult it will be to make up. Consider the following:

  • A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover.
  • A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover.
  • A 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply break even.

Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown:

  • A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks to a few months.
  • A 50% drawdown may take many years to recover.

Depending on a trader’s age, they may not have the time to wait nor the patience for a market recovery. Successful traders know it’s critical to keep drawdowns with reason, as most have learned this principle the hard way.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition. Click on the following link to learn how: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Global market risks have shifted dramatically over the past 90+ days. It almost seems as though the global markets turned 180 degrees overnight, generally going from moderately soft monetary policies to very extreme monetary policies and conditions. This sudden shift caught many traders and investors off guard and resulted in -20% to -25% losses for many.

The driving forces behind this sudden shift are inflation and excess capital (M2) because of nearly a decade of near-zero US interest rates. Much of the excess capital created over the past decade has been deployed into global equities, infrastructure, and various speculative instruments (art, homes, cryptos, collectibles, and others). However, without a doubt, the recent burst of inflation is also a result of COVID restrictions. Such restrictions reduced supply capabilities and the resulting interruptions of manufacturing/supply have been felt throughout the post-COVID global recovery.

Deleveraging Capital Excesses Causing Global Assets To Unwind Faster Than US Assets

The US & Global markets have contracted by more than 25%~35%. The following Custom Global Market Index highlights the extensive devaluation in global assets compared to US assets. US assets have fallen -23% from recent highs. Global assets have fallen -32% from recent highs – and are breaking downward again.

US and Global Index weekly chart

If this overall trend continues, it is very likely that Chinese & Asian markets could lead to a global contagion event related to extended credit/debt liabilities, economic expectations (GDP/Consumers), and real asset valuations. Over the past 5+ years, I’ve published many articles showing how China/Asia was uniquely positioned to take advantage of the US easy money policies. Results from this could extend credit/debt risks far beyond reasonable expectations. Is this global inflation event driving a global devaluation of assets?

Excess Phase Peak Consumption Can Lead To Extreme Risk Events

This excess phase consumption of cheap credit prompted many nations to engage in very high-risk multi-billion dollar infrastructure projects and other excesses.  The Belt-Road project is a perfect example of one nation extending billions of credit to at-risk nations to leverage cheap credit into future opportunities. As evidenced near every market peak, optimism near the peak of excess phases can be very addictive and dangerous.

Global debt levels have skyrocketed over the past 5+ years. With the US prompting extreme easy money policies, many foreign nations extended debt levels far beyond reasonable expectations when COVID hit. The following chart from the IMF shows consumers and corporations increased debt levels at an excessively higher rate in 2020. The excessive global debt levels are now evidently working as a liability for many Asian & Emerging markets.

Global debt chart

(Source: https://www.imf.org/en/home)

Protecting & Growing Wealth When Markets Are In Chaos

I receive many questions from investors and traders every week. Generally, the most common question is “what can I do to profit right now from what is happening throughout the world?”. The simple answer to that question is to not extend any greater risk within your portfolio than necessary.

This chart from Bank of America Investment Strategies shows how aggressively World Government Bonds are reacting to inflation and global central bank rate increases. The short story of this chart is that Bonds are pricing in very unfavorable growth and capital function conditions over the next 3 to 5+ years. World Government bonds have reached risk levels we’ve not seen since post-WWI (1918+) or the Great Depression (1930+).

Government bonds chart

(Source: BankofAmerica.com)

Research & Technology Highlighted Risks & Opportunities

My research team and I have posted articles over the past 5+ years highlighting how global markets were taking advantage of the US monetary policy and inadvertently gorging themselves on cheap credit to address infrastructure, industrial, and consumer demand.  We’ve been warning of this moment and have strategies/technology to help you protect and grow your wealth as this chaos continues.

This Bloomberg Gold vs. Global Bonds chart highlights how aggressively global Bonds have adjusted to extreme risk factors. What this is telling traders/investors is that global central banks appear to have very few tools to efficiently manage inflationary trends – and these reflect in extreme risk factors in global bonds. Quickly raising rates to combat inflation trends may aggressively compound risk factors at this point. This chart is clearly showing us that global risk factors have never been this extreme, or disconnected, over the past 8+ years.

Gold vs Global Bonds chart

(Source: Bloomberg.com)

I suggest taking immediate action while this market chaos continues. Even though it may seem frightening, this is one of the best opportunities for you to take control of your assets, and also learn how to better protect and grow your wealth while the markets deleverage and resettle. Eventually, a market bottom will confirm, and global assets will begin another rally phase. Before this happens, though, all traders/investors need to begin taking immediate actions/steps to manage, protect and grow their wealth as efficiently as possible.

WHAT STRATEGIES CAN HELP YOU NAVIGATE THE CURRENT MARKET TRENDS?

Learn how we use specific tools to help us understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors. Also, learn how we identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, we expect very large price swings in the US stock market. The markets have begun to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase. A revaluation phase has started as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals may start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern begin to drive traders/investors into safe havens.

Historically, bonds have served as one of these safe havens. This isn’t proving to be the case, so if bonds are off the table, what bond alternatives are there? How can they be deployed in a bond replacement strategy?

HOW WE CAN HELP YOU LEARN TO INVEST CONSERVATIVELY

At TheTechnicalTraders.com, my team and I can do these things:

  • Safely navigate the commodity and crude oil trend.
  • Reduce your FOMO and manage your emotions.
  • Have proven trading strategies for bull and bear markets.
  • Provide quality trades for investing conservatively.
  • Tell you when to take profits and exit trades.
  • Save you time with our research.
  • Proved above-average returns/growth over the long run.
  • Have consistent growth with low volatility/risks.
  • Make trading and investing safer, more profitable, and educational.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition. Click on the following link to learn how: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Summer is here, and it’s time for a vacation. But this year, flight schedules are anything but reliable, and that new car for the road trip is probably not available at the local Toyota, Honda, Tesla, General Motors, Ford, etc dealership. Due to chip shortages and other issues, most car dealerships have little to no inventory to sell.

High inflation and rising interest rates combined with high gasoline prices are causing people to rethink or pay more attention to their monthly budget expenditures.

Furthermore, if you do decide to buy a used car, be prepared to pay top dollar. In some cases, a 3-year-old model may cost you as much as a new one. Historically autos almost always depreciate, but we are in an unusual market phenomenon where many used cars have appreciated significantly.

What about the auto company stocks themselves? Cash is looking great versus owning one of these auto brands.

Before we motor into the auto company stocks, let’s take a quick look at cash (the U.S. Dollar).

U.S. DOLLAR +18.81%

  • U.S. Dollar making a new 14-year high
  • 2020-2022 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD appreciated +18.74% to date
  • 2016-2020 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD depreciated – 12.80%
  • 2012-2016 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD appreciated +37.20%

US DOLLAR INDEX • DXY • CAPITALCOM • WEEKLY

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

TOYOTA -26.93%

  • January 2022 to present
  • -$56.77 or -26.93%
  • 22 weeks or 154 days down
  • The bear market has more room to drop; if you own it consider selling on rallies and going to cash

TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION • TM • NYSE • WEEKLY

Toyota Motor Corporation Weekly Chart

HONDA -27.57%

  • August 2021 to present
  • -$9.19 or -27.57%
  • 47 weeks or 329 days down
  • The bear market has more room to drop; if you own it consider selling on rallies and going to cash

HONDA MOTOR COMPANY, LTD. • HMC • NYSE • WEEKLY

Hondo Motor Company Weekly Chart

TESLA -47.38%

  • November 2021 to present
  • -$582.69 or -47.38%
  • 32 weeks or 224 days down
  • The bear market has more room to drop; if you own it consider selling on rallies and going to cash

TESLA, INC. • TSLA • NASDAQ • WEEKLY

Tesla Inc Weekly Chart

GENERAL MOTORS -50.18%

  • December 2021 to present
  • -$31.91 or -50.18%
  • 27 weeks or 189 days down
  • The bear market has more room to drop; if you own it consider selling on rallies and going to cash

GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY • GM • NYSE • WEEKLY

General Motors Weekly Chart

FORD -55.71%

  • January 2022 to present
  • -$14.11 or -55.71%
  • 22 weeks or 154 days down
  • The bear market has more room to drop; if you own it consider selling on rallies and going to cash

FORD MOTOR COMPANY • F • NYSE • WEEKLY

Ford Motor Company Weekly Chart

VALUABLE INSIGHTS FROM SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

Market Wizards by Jack D Schwager (www.Amazon.com) is packed with insights from successful traders who have shared their wisdom based on firsthand trading experiences. The following are some of Jack Schwager’s thoughts after his first set of super trader interviews that seem relevant for today’s market:

Jack Schwager:

  • “Sometimes, being out of the market may be nearly as important to success as the investments made.”
  • “The critical lesson is that it is important not to be involved in the market when the opportunities are not there.”
  • “Many super traders consider risk control more important than the methodology.”

HOW WE CAN HELP YOU LEARN TO INVEST CONSERVATIVELY

At TheTechnicalTraders.com, my team and I can do these things:

  • Reduce your FOMO and manage your emotions.
  • Have proven trading strategies for bull and bear markets.
  • Provide quality trades for investing conservatively.
  • Tell you when to take profits and exit trades.
  • Save you time with our research.
  • Proved above-average returns/growth over the long run.
  • Have consistent growth with low volatility/risks.
  • Make trading and investing safer, more profitable, and educational.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of TheTechnicalTraders.com

In the trader tip video, Brian talks about the ELI LILLY ticket symbol LLY. It’s a beautiful looking chart for LLY, one that we are not seeing too many of in this bearish market. LLY recently had a breakout above the area around three twenty. One way to play this with some margin of safety would be to do a Put Vertical Credit Spread.

This is where we would be selling an out-of-the-money put below that three-twenty level. And we would want to buy a lower strike and turn this into a spread so that we can have risk on the trade. We are also looking at the 29th of July expiration, closing that trade before that earnings report on August 4th.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE LLY TRADE SETUP – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE STRATEGIES THAT BRIAN USES, PLEASE VISIT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

In the trader tip video, Chris talks about the Treasury bill ETF BIL and the importance of protecting and saving your capital. We don’t believe anyone should be holding assets that are falling in value. With that being said, the Buy & Hold strategy is just that. You’ll buy it and hold it, and you can be in a 20% to 50% or more drawdown with your capital which goes against everything we as technical traders and investors are doing.

The BIL ETF is a one to three-year Treasury bill note and is pretty much like a cash position. It pays dividends and a little bit of money but doesn’t dramatically fall with the stock market. Overall, cash is sometimes the best position to be in when we are in the market conditions we’ve seen over the last few months.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT the BIL ETF – WATCH THE VIDEO

Subscribers: Please let us know what you would like to learn and we will add it to the roster of our weekly Technical Trader Tips!

Non-subscribers: Please enjoy these micro-lessons as a way to further your education and understanding of how a technical trader…well…trades!

TO EXPLORE THE STRATEGIES THAT Chris USES, PLEASE VISIT THE TECHNICAL TRADERS. YOU’VE GOT MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE WHEN SEEKING INFORMATION!

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

Chris sits down with Craig Hemke of Sprott Money to talk about recent moves in precious metals, crude oil, and the US dollar. It’s been a tough year so far with money flowing out of stocks. Will the overall downtrend trend continue or is a big market shift coming? And is now the time to buy physical gold and silver vs investing in or trading ETFs such as GDX and SILJ?

The Stock Market

The stock market is very oversold meaning that most stocks are down dramatically which puts pressure on precious metals. As money moves back into growth stocks it goes out of traditional defensive plays such as gold, silver, miners, and bonds.

The S&P500 is back at the March 2021 lows and remains in a clear downtrend. However, certain sectors are starting to come back to life. Biotech, Solar, and Ark are building bull flags, carving out bottoms and thus gaining strength for a possible run to the upside.

Relative Strength

As a technical analyst, I look at relative strength opposite to most people. When RSI goes below 30 it’s confirmation that the trend is down and is thus a bearish sign. When the RSI goes above 70 it’s a power zone indication that the asset or sector is gaining strength. Rather than trimming positions, it’s actually time to hold a position as it may rip to the upside.

The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index long-term monthly chart shows that we are just starting to break out after a consolidation that has lasted several years. A lot of downward pressure will be placed on precious metals until the US Dollar hits the 120 level. Should the dollar reach 120 and then begin to move sideways for an extended time, precious metals will potentially have a big rally.

Crude Oil

With high inflation, most people are very focused on the price of gas. When the price of crude oil falls below $100 per barrel, the purse strings are loosened a bit. Spending money can be reallocated toward products and services.

Sprott-Gold-And-Silver-ETF

GET CHRIS VERMEULEN’S GOLD AND SILVER ETF TRADE SIGNALS AT:
WWW.THETECHNICALTRADERS.COM

Disclaimer: None of this material is meant to be construed as investment advice. It is for education and entertainment purposes only. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

In a significant market downturn, bearish sentiment, if not outright fear, can drive down the share price of good companies rather drastically.  When the market is in a sustained selling mood, there can be a substantial disconnect between the long-term fundamentals and the technical price action we see on the chart. 

The Temptation to Bottom Fish

What can we do when good companies are trading at what appear to be bargain prices?  We could “stick our toe in the water” and buy shares.  But what if we’re wrong about whether a bottom in the share price is in place?  Or what if the stock takes a very long time to build a base and goes nowhere for an extended period?

Selling Puts

Rather than buying shares, we could sell put options instead.  It’s a strategy famously used by Warren Buffett to acquire shares at a discount.

First, a quick review of put options.  Someone who owns or is “long” a put has paid a premium to have the right, but not the obligation, to sell shares to the counterparty at the strike price.  But that right exists only until the option expires. 

The counterparty who has sold, or is “short” a put, has an obligation to buy shares at the strike price.  That obligation is eliminated when the option expires, and the put seller gets to keep the premium collected whether they have shares “put to them” or not.

Although selling puts can be a way to acquire shares at a discount, traders (as opposed to investors) may just be interested in collecting the put premium as an income strategy.

Rules to Remember

We must like the stock at or around the strike price and believe it will recover over time.  Even if we’re just selling puts to collect premiums, keep in mind that we could end up owning shares. 

Of course, there must be options available on the stock.  The options should have good liquidity – decent volume, open interest, and bid/ask spreads that aren’t too wide. The strike prices near the current share price should have hundreds, if not thousands, of open interest contracts.  The bid/ask spreads on the options should be just a few pennies wide.  It’s usually a good sign of option liquidity if weekly, not just monthly, options are available.

What Makes a Good Candidate?

Look for companies with a long history of good earnings that have rebounded after many economic cycles.   The company sells a product or service that will likely remain in demand for the foreseeable future.  (No “buggy whip” manufacturers.)  A good candidate will likely weather the current storm and come out okay when the economy recovers.

Ideally, the share price is under $25, preferably under $20.   At that price level and below, the option premiums relative to the share price make for efficient use of capital and an attractive return on risk. 

Example Setup

Say company “ABC” was trading for $34 a share before the general market selloff but now is trading for roughly half that at $15.60.   There is “blood in the streets,” but overall sentiment may be improving.

The price action on the chart shows some tentative signs of bottoming.  A gap up with increased volume is a good sign.  A recent earnings report that wasn’t as “bad” as expected is another good sign.

In this example, the premium for the $15 put is $1.20 for an expiration 42 days away.  While the $15 strike is currently out-of-the-money (OTM), if we had shares put to us at $15, our cost basis would be $15 – $1.20, or $13.80. 

If the shares were trading at $14 at expiration, we’d have shares put to us.  But we would still be ahead on the trade with a profit.  We could turn around and sell those shares at $14 and have a profit of $0.20.

As options sellers, we’re selling time value that decays as the expiration date approaches.  We know that regardless of what happens with the share price, the time value we sold will be $0 at expiration. 

As an alternative to risking assignment, we could roll the trade forward rather than wait for shares to be put for us.  We could buy back the option on or near the expiration date and sell another option further out in time.  We can typically do that for a net credit.  In this example, we might be able to collect another $1 in premium.  So now our risk in the trade is reduced to $15 – $1.20 – $1.00 = $12.80.   

Summary

Put selling can be a savvy way to go “bottom-fishing” for good stocks, either to acquire shares at a discount or just collect option premiums.   Selling puts gives us a way to get “paid” while we wait for the share price to recover.  We can make a profit if the share price goes up, sideways, or even down a bit. 

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OPTIONS TRADING?

Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.   

Our Options Trading Specialist, Brian Benson, continues to knock his trades out of the park. His current win rate is 80% meaning of the last 20 trades, 16 have finished in-the-money!

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. Brian, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Enjoy your day!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

On Tuesday, July 5th, Crude Oil collapsed very sharply, down over 10% near the lows, in an aggressive breakdown of the price. The $97.43 lows reached that day were more than -14% from recent highs (set on June 29, 2022) and more than -21% from highs set on June 14, 2022.

Consumer Discretionary Spending Likely To Fall Further

In a recent research article (published June 9, 2022: CRUDE OIL PRICE AND CONSUMER SPENDING – HOW THEY ARE RELATED), we shared a similar breakdown that took place in Crude Oil in 2009 and how tightening consumer spending often correlates with peaks in Crude Oil when crisis events happen.

Within that research article, I shared this chart highlighting the collapse in the Consumer Discretionary sector that preceded the downward collapse in Crude Oil. The interesting facet of this chart is we can see the inflationary price pressure in Crude Oil (and the general economy) countered by pressures put on consumers in the lower IYC price chart.

Consumers Lead The Global Economy – Watch IYC Closely

As prices rise, consumers are put under extreme pressure to keep their normal standard of living. As inflationary pressures continue, consumers make necessary sacrifices to manage their budgets – often going into debt in the process.

Eventually, this cycle breaks, and inflationary trends end. This is clearly evident on the chart below in July 2008 – as IYC, the Consumer Discretionary sector, collapsed by more than 27% before Crude Oil finally peaked and broke downward.

Crude oil daily chart

Since November 2021, IYC Has Fallen More Than -37%

This current Weekly Crude Oil & IYC Chart shows IYC has collapsed by more than -37% from the November 2021 highs – well beyond the -27% collapse in 2008 that preceded the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis event. Is the current collapse in IYC a sign that a broad global crisis event has already begun to unfold beneath all the news and hype? Will Crude Oil collapse below $75ppb as the global economy shifts away from inflationary price trends and bubbles burst?

Crude oil weekly futures chart

The Deflationary Price Cycle Is Not Over Yet

If IYC falls below $55 in an aggressive downward price move, I would state the risks of a global deflationary price cycle (or extended recession) are still quite elevated. Currently, the $55 price level in IYC aligns with early 2019 price highs and reflects an extended price advance from the $12~$15 IYC price levels in 2008-09.

If the $55 IYC price level is breached to the downside, I expect the $37.50~$40.00 price level to become future support – as that price level reflects the COVID-19 event lows.

Still, these lower price targets represent an additional -32% decline in IYC and reflect a total of a -57% collapse in the Consumer Discretionary sector from the November 2021 peak levels. The potential target range of $37.50~$40.00 correlates with the 2008-09 GFC collapse range when IYC fell from $18 to lows near $8 (nearly -57%).

We are still very early in the shifting deflationary cycle phase after the US Fed started raising interest rates. Learn to protect and profit from this global event with my specialized investment solutions. Visit, www.thetechnicaltraders.com to learn more.

LEARN FROM OUR TEAM OF SEASONED TRADERS

In today’s market environment, it’s imperative to assess our trading plans, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. As professional technical traders, we always follow the price. At first glance, this seems very straightforward and simple. But emotions can interfere with a trader’s success when they buck the trend (price). Remember, our ego aside protecting our hard-earned capital is essential to our survival and success.

Successfully managing our drawdowns ensures our trading success. The larger the loss, the more difficult it will be to make up. Consider the following:

  • A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover.
  • A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover.
  • A 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply break even.

Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown:

  • A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks to a few months.
  • A 50% drawdown may take many years to recover.

Depending on a trader’s age, they may not have the time to wait nor the patience for a market recovery. Successful traders know it’s critical to keep drawdowns with reason, as most have learned this principle the hard way.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition. Click on the following link: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how.

Chris Vermeulen

The U.S. Dollar is one market that continues to stand out as a stronghold for traders and investors. The world’s primary reserve currency, the USD, remains solidly above all other major global currencies.

As we move into the summer, the stock indices have not only been choppy but continue to trend lower.

Commodities, metals, and energy appear to be topping and experiencing distribution.

U.S. Dollar 1 year relative performance

 www.finviz.com

Cash is King as traders are now placing a value on liquidity. As losses mount and capital evaporates, traders are liquidating many different assets to meet margin calls and raise needed cash.

Going to cash and salvaging what is left is a survivalist strategy. It has many benefits providing peace of mind as well as the future potential to generate significant returns down the road. If a trader does nothing and their capital continues to evaporate, it can be fatal to a trader’s overall attitude and hinder their ability to generate future profits.

Markets go up, and markets go down. What makes the big difference is how we manage risk and how well we do in following the direction of price. Knowing and controlling one’s emotions dictates how long we can play the game or how successful we will be.

Now is not a good time for traders to become complacent or ignore their basic money management and risk principles.

U.S. DOLLAR 14-YEAR UP TREND

  • U.S. Dollar has been up 14.28 years from 2008 to 2022.
  • 2012-2016 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD appreciated +37.20%
  • 2016-2020 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD depreciated – 12.80%
  • 2020-2022 U.S. Presidential Cycle: USD appreciated +17.35% to date
  • U.S. Dollar New 14-year high

US DOLLAR INDEX • DXY • CAPITALCOM • WEEKLY

U.S. Dollar 14 year chart

U.S. DOLLAR ‘UUP’ ETF +16.96%

  • January 6, 2021, to present USD ETF UUP + 16.96%
  • Pullbacks or corrections have typically been 3-4%
  • Pullbacks or corrections have typically lasted 20-50 days
  • Price target extensions for potential resistance are at $36, $42, & $48

INVESCO DB USD INDEX BULLISH FUND ETF • UUP • ARCA • DAILY

U.S. Dollar UUP chart

U.S. DOLLAR VS U.S. EQUITY INDICES

  • Comparative Percentage Chart: U.S. Dollar ETF VS U.S. Equity Indices ETFs
  • Timeframe: January 6, 2021, to present
  • 372 bars, 539 days, 77 weeks, 17.9 months, or 1.47 years
  • +10.65% USDU ETF: Wisdom Tree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund
  • +2.75% SPY ETF: S&P 500
  • +2.61% DIA ETF: Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • -8.15% QQQ ETF: Nasdaq 100
  • -12.01% IWM ETF: Russell 2000
  • Maximum spread equals 22.66% (+10.65% USDU vs -12.01% IWM)
  • Forecast is that the spread will continue to expand

WISDOMTREE BLOOMBERG U.S. DOLLAR BULLISH FUND • USDU • ARCA • DAILY

U.S. Dollar vs Equity chart

VALUABLE INSIGHTS FROM SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

Market Wizards by Jack D Schwager (www.Amazon.com) is packed with insights from successful traders who have shared their wisdom based on firsthand trading experiences. Here are a few of our favorites:

Tom Baldwin:

  • “My secret to trading success is perseverance.”
  • “You have to love it to do it.”
  • “You cannot let ego get in the way of a trade that is a loser; you have to swallow your pride and get out.”

Tony Saliba:

  • “You can make money in any kind of market if you are using the right strategy.”
  • “I scale in and scale out of my positions so that I can spread out my risk.”
  • “I do not like to do all of my orders at any one price in or out.”

Dr. Van K Tharp:

  • “Good rules, cut your losses short and let your profits run.”
  • “Stress is not good as our brains have limited capacity in processing information and can shut down during periods of high stress.”
  • “You have to take some hits if you are going to be successful, just keep them small.”
  • “Many people allow their emotions to control their trading.”

LEARN FROM OUR TEAM OF SEASONED TRADERS

In today’s market environment, it’s imperative to assess our trading plans, portfolio holdings, and cash reserves. As professional technical traders, we always follow price. At first glance, this seems very straightforward and simple. But emotions can interfere with a trader’s success when they buck the trend (price). Remember, our ego aside protecting our hard-earned capital is essential to our survival and success.

Successfully managing our drawdowns ensures our trading success. The larger the loss, the more difficult it will be to make up. Consider the following:

  • A loss of 10% requires an 11% gain to recover.
  • A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover.
  • A 60% loss requires an even more daunting 150% gain to simply break even.

Recovery time also varies significantly depending upon the magnitude of the drawdown:

  • A 10% drawdown can typically be recovered in weeks to a few months.
  • A 50% drawdown may take many years to recover.

Depending on a trader’s age, they may not have the time to wait nor the patience for a market recovery. Successful traders know it’s critical to keep drawdowns with reason, as most have learned this principle the hard way.

Sign up for my free trading newsletter so you don’t miss the next opportunity!

We invite you to join our group of active traders who invest conservatively together. They learn and profit from our three ETF Technical Trading Strategies. We