Archive for year: 2020

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Natural Gas Breaks $2.00 On Upside Rally and Next Target

Overnight, Natural Gas broke above the $2.00 price level as we expected.  On April 6, 2020, we published our research that Natural Gas was setting up a bottom pattern and that our seasonal analysis suggested April and May should prompt a price rally in Natural Gas pushing price levels above $2.40.

The current rally has broken above a price resistance level near $2.00 and the rally up to $2.40 may happen faster than we expect.  Currently, our Daily Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $2.35 area is the first area of resistance.  Beyond that, the next level of resistance would be near $2.90.  Beyond that incredible upside target, the Fibonacci Weekly data is projecting an upper target near $3.60.

We are not suggesting that Natural Gas could rally 90% over the next few weeks, but we are alerting you that a move to $2.40 seems highly likely after our incredible bottom call on April 6, 2020.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

DAILY NATURAL GAS CHART

This Daily Natural Gas chart highlights the rounded bottom setup that prompted us to make the bottom warning.  Skilled traders will see an inverted Head-n-Shoulders pattern where the head consists of a double-bottom pattern near the end of March and into early April.  The opportunity to buy into Natural Gas below $1.70 presented a very clear opportunity with little risk.

WEEKLY NATURAL GAS CHART

This Weekly Natural Gas chart highlights the Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s projected upside targets.  The first target, near $2.40, is an easy target for a first profit level.  The next upside target level for-profits should be near the RED LINE, near $2.55.  Beyond that, if Natural Gas continues to rally, the next area for skilled traders to pull profits would be the $2.95 level.  Any move higher beyond that level would be a gift with a target level near $3.60.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Overall, this has been an excellent trade.  We got our members into this trade fairly early and are already pulling profits and trailing stops.  It certainly helps to have the modeling systems and seasonal analysis tools we use to find these setups for our members – but you can do it too.  All it takes is a bit of skill and understanding of how certain markets operate within seasonal trends and setups.  Otherwise, if you don’t have the time to research every chart we can do it all for you and just send you the trades we are taking.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

How to Know Where S&P 500, Gold, and Bonds are Headed Next

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events.  The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”.  Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

I’m offering you the chance to learn to profit, as I do with my own money, from market trends that I hand-pick for my own trading.  These are not wild, crazy trades – these are simple, effective, and slower types of trades that consistently build wealth.  I issue about 4 to 8+ trades a month for my members and adjust trade allocation based on my proprietary allocation algo – the objective is to gain profits while managing overall risks.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer membership services for active traders, long-term investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members.  Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

BitCoin Retests Resistance Near 9370 – What Next?

If you pay attention to the trends taking place on the Weekly Bitcoin chart, you’ll notice that it has reacted to the global market Covid-19 trends almost exclusively since the beginning of 2020.  After the end of 2019, the US stock market rallied on Q4: 2019 data and so did Bitcoin.  The US Stock market peaked near February 20 and began a deeper selloff on February 25 – Bitcoin followed this pattern as well.  When the US Fed initiated the stimulus on March 23, Bitcoin prices had already started to bottom in anticipation of the Fed stimulus and really began to rally after the Fed began intervening.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

BITCOIN VS S&P 500 DAILY CHART COMPARISON

This is a bit unusual for Bitcoin, which in the past didn’t correlate to the US stock market trends all that well.  What changed?  We believe the sudden correlation of Bitcoin to the US Stock Market trends are related to investor psychology and the perceived efforts of the Central Banks in supporting the global economy.

We find it interesting that a decentralized cryptocurrency, which is supposed to be independent of global central banks and governments, suddenly aligns almost perfectly with the US stock market in correlation with the US Federal Reserve.  It is almost as if Bitcoin prices are much more aligned with the global economy and global central banks as this crisis event unfolds.  This suggests the true value of Bitcoin is not as an alternate, decentralized currency.  The true value of Bitcoin is a hyper-speculative alternate store of value – unrelated to any real asset or oversight process.

WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOIN – WEEKLY CHART

If our research is correct, the current downside price channel (Resistance) originating from the June 2019 highs will prompt a massive breakdown in price over the next 5+ weeks – possibly longer.  There are two key factors that lead us to this conclusion.  First, the correlation to the US stock market, which we believe will continue to move lower until an ultimate bottom is reached near July or August 2020.  Second, the massive Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc inflection point (the GREEN ARC) which will be reached in less than seven days.

If Bitcoin continues to mirror the US stock market price action and this inflection point does what we believe, then a massive breakdown in price may start to trend sometime between May 8 and May 14.

DAILY BITCOIN CHART

This Daily Bitcoin Chart shows you what we believe to be the most likely outcome going forward.  A bit of upward price rotation to potentially retest the resistance level, then a moderate selloff, followed by a brief sideways trend before an even deeper selloff begins.  This may be a map of what the US stock market may do over the exact same span of time.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our researchers believe the ultimate bottom will set up near the end of Q3: 2020.  We believe general weakness will push the US stock market price towards an ultimate low/bottom near July or August 2020.  After that bottom completes, Q4: 2020 may see a moderate upside price trend as the Santa Rally mode kicks in.  If Bitcoin mirrors this move, then it may attempt to move below the $3850 level and ultimately attempt to find a bottom below $3000.

Our researchers believe Bitcoin has recently aligned with the US stock market and the global central banks.  If this is the case, then the “alternate decentralized currency” aspect of cryptos becomes a useless component of the market.  If Bitcoin mirrors the SPY going forward, then it is just an expensive, highly volatile alternate measure of the US stock market and global central bank activities.

Watch for the price breakdown near May 10th or so.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the rest of this financial crisis going into late 2020 and early 2021.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

ADL Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Market Recovery In Q4 2020

Our research team has put together these charts of our ADL modeling system (Advanced Dynamic Learning), which shows a very clear upside price recovery starting to take place in late September or early October of this year. The ADL system also suggests the recovery may last through most of Q4:2020 before the markets collapse again in early 2021.

This predictive modeling system has become somewhat of a hit with our members and our followers.  We continue to get requests from members for selected ADL research related to Oil, the NASDAQ, or other symbols. The idea that we can attempt to see into the future with a certain degree of accuracy would certainly appeal to any trader/investor.

These updated ADL charts show that the US stock market may stay under some downward/sideways pricing pressure until last September 2020 – prompting a Q4 “Santa Rally”, before the markets appear to find a new extreme weakness in early 2021.  This suggests a brief uptick in consumer activity and economic engagement centered around the November 2020 elections and the 2020 Christmas Holiday season, then back to a more contracted economic mode in early 2021.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

YM MONTHLY CHART

This YM Monthly chart highlights our ADL predictive modeling system’s results from a September 2019 origination point.  The one thing we want to add about the ADL system and the current Covid-19 virus event is that our ADL system attempts to map historic price activity into “DNA markers” and uses those DNA markers to attempt to identify and predict future price activity.  Obviously, there has been nothing like the Covid-19 virus event in recent history.  Thus, the ADL predictive modeling system is attempting to apply price DNA to an event that is unprecedented in 80+ years of price history.

Our researchers believe the ADL system will be able to pick up inherent price rotations and trends that relate to existing price DNA markers, yet the scale and scope of the price moves related to the current Covid-19 event may be much larger and more volatile than the ADL predictive modeling system is capable of indicating.  For example, take a look at the YM chart below and realize that price moved well beyond the ADL predictive price markers on this chart.  This is not an anomaly in price, this is an extreme moment in time that the ADL predictive modeling system is incapable of modeling accurately.

Thus, as we are showing you the ADL predictive modeling results, remember that extreme volatility related to the global market event could push the price 6% to 15% further away from these predicted price levels very easily as volatility increases.  Thus, a bottom shown on this chart near 24,000 with the ADL system could actually result in a price bottom near 22.460 or 20,400 (6% to 15% below the projected price level).

MONTHLY NQ CHART

This Monthly NQ chart shows that the tech-heavy NASDAQ may provide a more stable sideways market rotation over the next 6+ months than the S&P500 or the Dow Industrials.  The ADL system is suggesting that the NQ will likely move lower over the next 3+ months before recovering back to the 9,000 price range in September/October 2020.  Again, we see moderate weakness in price in early 2021 for a short period of time before price attempts to resettle near 9,200 in Q2:2021

This suggests the NASDAQ will continue to attract foreign investment and show more restrained price volatility than the Dow or the S&P.  Again, pay attention to the extreme volatility in the markets and how the price has extended 5% to 15%+ beyond the ADL predictive price levels.  Until the volatility subsides, continue to expect this extreme price rage volatility.

Our ADL system accurately predicted the month gold started a new bull market last year which Eric Sprott talked about. Also, we predicted the month oil was going to crash. while price hit our downside target correctly the price went way beyond that as we all know.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Overall, it appears September/October of 2020 is setting up for a moderate US stock market price recovery. Until then, it appears we have a bit of additional price rotation and volatility to contend with.  The interesting take-away from all of this is that our original expectation for a price bottom near or after June or July 2020 seems very accurate.

Technical traders should wait for the price to confirm these predictions before taking any actions.  This is a great market for skilled short term traders to find opportunities.  But it is also very dangerous for traders to chase trends.

The next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders and investors.  Huge price swings, incredible revaluation events, and, eventually, an incredible upside rally will start again.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events.  The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”.  Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

I’m offering you the chance to learn to profit, as I do with my own money, from market trends that I hand-pick for my own trading.  These are not wild, crazy trades – these are simple, effective, and slower types of trades that consistently build wealth.  I issue about 4 to 8+ trades a month for my members and adjust trade allocation based on my proprietary allocation algo – the objective is to gain profits while managing overall risks.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer membership services for active traders, long-term investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members.  Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

TRAN & SPY Setup Intermediate Topping Patterns

Recently, the Transportation Index and the S&P SPDR ETF setup topping patterns near the end of April 2020.  In terms of technical triggers, these patterns need to see additional downside price confirmation before we can confirm the true potential for these setups. If they do confirm, we could be starting a new downside price trend fairly soon.

The recent market upside price move is dramatically different on the TRAN chart vs. the SPY chart.  Even though the SPY price advance has mirrored the move in the ES and NQ, the TRAN upside price move has been more muted.  This is because global economic activity has continued to stall and is not translating into active shipping and trucking activity.  Remember, the Transportation Index helps us to understand the core levels of economic activity as parcels and products move around the globe.

Initially, the downside price break that occurred on Friday, May 1, 2020, which acts as a potential new downside price trend, yet we would want to see the recent lows from 8 days ago breached before we could consider this a truly confirmed trend.  Technical traders may choose how and when to enter new trades/trends – yet we like to teach our followers to wait for true confirmation. I posted a short video about how I analyze the index for new trades here.

TRANSPORTATION INDEX (TRAN) DAILY CHART

On the TRAN chart, the recent lows near 7,762 would qualify as a breakdown price move.  Thus, if the TRAN sells off below that level, then we would have a confirmed downside price trend expecting 6,500 to be reached again.

SPY DAILY CHART

On this SPY chart, a similar type of Three River Evening pattern setup a nearly perfect top over the past four days.  A confirmation appears to be valid on Friday, May 1, 2020.  Yet, we would need to wait to see if the low price level near 272 is breached before we could confirm a true breakdown in this upward price trend.

 

Skilled traders should pay very close attention to what happens over the next five or more trading days as any new breakdown in price could be very volatile and aggressive.  Our researchers believe the 251.50 level on the SPY would be the next downside target (see the YELLOW ARROW on this chart).

The heavy GREEN Arcing line near the recent peak is our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc representing a very key resistance level (1.618x).  Notice how this level played a very key role in providing initial support in early March and is now acting as a major top/resistance area.

We could be in for a very big ride if a new breakdown begins soon.

SPY WEEKLY CHART – REVERSAL CANDLE

This 35% bounce in the SP500 I called many weeks showing how this very similar setup unfolded during the 2000 market top.

2000 STOCK MARKET TOP & BEAR MARKET THAT FOLLOWED

The chart may look a little overwhelming, but look at each part and compare it to the market psychology chart above. What happened in 2000 is what I feel is happening this year with the stock market sell-off.

In 2000, all market participants learned of at the same time was that there were no earnings coming from their darling .com stocks. Knowing they were not going to make money for a long time, everyone started selling these terrible stocks, and the market collapsed 40% very quickly.

What is similar between 2000 and 2020? Simple really. COVID-19 virus has halted a huge portion of business activity, travel, purchases, sporting events, etc. Everyone knows earnings are going to be poor, and many companies are going to go bankrupt. It is blatantly clear to everyone this is bad and will be for at least 6-12 months in corporate earnings; therefore, everyone is in a rush to sell their stock shares and are in a panic to unload them before everyone does.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

2020 STOCK MARKET TOP IS UNFOLDING

As you can see, this chart below of this year’s market crash is VERY similar to that of 2000 thus far, it’s based on a similar mindset.

I posted this chart originally mid-March, expecting a 30+% rally from these lows before the market starts to fall and continue the new bear market, which I believe we are entering. Only the price will confirm the direction and major trend to follow, and since we follow price action and do not pick tops or bottoms, all we have to do is watch, learn, and trade when price favors new low-risk, high reward trade setups.

It does not matter which way the market crashes from here, we will either profit from the next leg down, or will miss/avoid it depending on if we get a tradable setup. Either cause is a win, just one makes money, while the worst-case scenario just preserves capital in a cash position, you can’t complain either way if you ask me.

I have issued an Important Trade and Investment Alert here because a new bear market is potentially just around the corner.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term ETF Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

US Fed Intervention Wains… What Next?

What happens to the global markets when the US Fed begins to weaken stimulus activity and when the global markets must begin to function on their own?  Are the global markets capable of sustaining current price levels without the Fed supporting them?

A recent news article suggests the US Fed has drastically slashed stimulus activity over the past 5+ days.  From a peak level of nearly $600 Billion a week to current levels near $83 Billion per week – a -86% decrease.  How will this reflect in the market’s ability to sustain current price levels in the face of disastrous Q2 expectations? Yup, markets are falling fast and hard going into the weekend as expected!

Before closing this page, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Source: https://wolfstreet.com

BUFFET INDICATOR

Another common tool for skilled traders is the Buffet Indicator which helps us understand stock market valuation levels and measures extreme trends by measuring Standard Deviation ranges. Currently, the Buffet Indicator is near the highest levels ever recorded over the past 60+ years.  Additionally, a “detrended” version of the Buffet Indicator suggests a broader global recession would require a further devaluation before a true bottom is likely to complete.

This first Buffet Indicator chart shows the current market value to GDP and highlights the recent peak as being the highest level ever recorded.  Notice how this level is much higher than the peak in 2000.  This indicates that the stock market valuation level is excessive compared to historical norms.

Source: www.currentmarketvaluation.com

DETRENDED BUFFET INDICATOR

This Detrended Buffet Indicator suggests the recent peak may not reflect the same excessive valuation levels as we experienced in 2000, yet are historically near the upper range of extended valuation levels.  Notice how price devalues as a process of setting up a valuation advance throughout time. When prices become overvalued (think of simple supply/demand theory), demand typically collapses – sending prices lower. At this time, we have the global Covid-19 virus event disrupting the demand-side of this equation.  When demand collapses, where do prices go?

Source: www.currentmarketvaluation.com

Our research team believes the current trend will eventually end and global stock market prices will collapse again as a much deeper price low/bottom sets up.  Skilled traders need to understand that as long a the US Fed was pouring $600 Billion a week into the credit/stock market, the recovery in price was going to be substantial.  Once that stimulus ends and the markets are left to function on their own, the aspects of the demand collapse become more evident.

In a way, the Fed acted as a “demand supplement” for the US and global markets.  Buying up assets and supporting the credit markets in an effort to transition us past the crisis event that took place in late February and March 2020.  How quickly will the global markets transition back into a declining mode in the continues to stay passive?

CUSTOM US STOCK MARKET INDEX – WEEKLY INDEX

Our original targets where price may attempt to form a deeper bottom near the 2015~2016 price range is still very valid.  Near the peak of the recent selloff, price levels reached these predicted levels just before the US Fed began the stimulus programs. Now, price levels are nearly 35%+ above these low price levels.

Chart By: TradingView.com

CUSTOM SMARTCASH INDEX – WEEKLY CHART

It seems obvious to our research team that continued lack of consumer demand and lack of central bank intervention will likely result in the US stock market moving lower in the near future and attempting to establish a true price bottom.  We believe that bottom will likely happen near July or August 2020 and will likely reach levels near, or below, the 2015~2016 price range but this analysis will change as we progress forward with new events and analysis.

You can see our predicted price bottom on this Weekly Smart Cash Index chart.  The lines we’ve drawn into the future show where we believe the first attempt at a true price bottom may take place near July or August 2020.

Chart By: TradingView.com

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Remember, this type of price rotation is very healthy for the US and global markets.  The price must rotate through these types of trends to eliminate excessive risk/froth and to secure a proper price equilibrium where valuation levels can begin to appreciate again.  This process is almost cathartic in a sense.  The ability to regain a “true valuation base/bottom” in price (consider Fibonacci Price Theory) allows the future appreciation cycle to function more efficiently (having eliminated excessive risk valuations).

We will get through this and the global economy will continue to function.  We just have to get through the next 6+ months and the relative economic disaster of Q2 and Q3 (likely) before we’re going to see any real chance at true price appreciation.

At this point, when the Fed-induced upside trend breaks – watch out below.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Two Traders Share How to Trade Stocks Secrets

Christopher Uhl an Award-Winning Trader, Entrepreneur, Author, Podcaster, Speaker, and Coach talks with Mr. Vermeulen to find out how they can help others learn to trade.

Chris Vermeulen, Chief Market Strategist at http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com has been trading since he was 16 in high school and been trading full time in college. He’s 100% chartist and he loves swing trading and getting into the momentum trading.

Chris focuses on GDX GDXJ. According to him, it’s pretty much a line across the chart. If we go back to 2010-2011, we’ll actually see there’s a series of major rallies from back then.

Gold miners have just broken out of a stage 1 phase. Now we’re going into that bull market phase.

He thinks that they have the opportunity now to outperform for several weeks, do exceptionally well, but they might start to get under some pressure if the stock market does sell-off.

It’s so much easier to just find a trend that’s going in one direction, either up or down, and participate along with it.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

      

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Q1 GDP Data Will Likely Mask True Global Economic Future, Part II

This portion of our continued research into the Covid-19 virus event, one of the greatest disruptions to the global economy over the past 50+ years, concludes in this article.  In Part I of this article, we highlighted how price factors and economic data continue to suggest the US and the global stock market will likely attempt to retest recent lows or fall further, as the extent of the virus event continues to play out.  In this second portion, we’ll highlight some of this data and present the opposite aspect of the technical/data-driven research we’ve been providing to you.

Recently, something very important has happened in the US stock market – a breakout of sorts.  The weakness we expected to see last week prior to the new $500 billion in new stimulus appeared to end this past week.  Not only have the markets opened a bit higher this week, but they have continued to push higher over the past 3+ days.  From a technical standpoint, as long as the support channels and current trends do not falter, the US stock market may continue to push higher before breaking this uptrend.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

NASDAQ 100 DAILY CHART

This NASDAQ 100 Daily chart highlights the upside price trend that originated a bottom just as the US Fed initiated a massive stimulus program.  Weakness in the market, from a technical perspective, is still the overall trend because of the move away from the February highs.  At this point, even if the markets continue to rally, we would need to see a substantially higher price move to establish a new bullish trend.  Yet, as long as price stays above the RSI price channel and the relatively low price channel on this chart, the upside potential is higher than the downside price trend we have been predicting.

SPY DAILY CHART

This SPY Daily chart highlights the same type of setup.  We can easily see the minor rotation in price last week which prompted us to issue a warning that price may be turning lower near key Fibonacci levels.  Yet, early this week stock prices pushed higher – even as far weaker global economic data was published.  As long as this upward trend holds, price should continue to move higher.  If it breaks below these price channels we’ve highlighted on this chart – look out below.

At this point, it appears the market is more about a battle between the US Fed and the global central bankers dumping capital into the market to prevent a greater price collapse vs. the data that is starting to support a global economic collapse that may be bigger than the 2008-09 credit crisis.  Currently, it appears global traders and investors are banking on the central bank’s capacity to pour capital into the markets to suppress risks that appear to be growing.

The next series of charts highlight the US economic data as we are just entering a reporting period that reflects the contraction in the US and global economies.  Pay attention to this data and the scope of the collapse compared to the 2008-09 crisis event.

REDBOOK RETAIL SALES INDEX (WOW)

This first chart is the Redbook Retail sales index (WoW) data.  The collapse this week and last is far greater than the lowest levels in 2008~09.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/redbook-911

RICHMOND MANUFACTURING INDEX

This next chart is the Richmond Manufacturing Index – again, the newest data is near twice as deep as the 2008-09 credit crisis levels at their deepest levels. Remember, we are just starting to see the data from the Covid-19 virus event.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/richmond-manufacturing-shipments-1510

US QUARTERLY GDP DATA

This next chart is the US Quarterly GDP data.  The -4.8% level is deep, but still a bit away from the -6.3% level that happened in the 2008-09 credit crisis.  Yet, we believe the Q2 GDP data could offer a number below -8~10%.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-375

PENDING HOME SALES CHART

This Pending Home Sales chart confirms a very broad contraction in home buying activity.  In the midst of the 2008-09 crisis, this data printed a -29.9% data point in July 2010 – well after the bottom in the markets had completed.  We believe the next few months will present even deeper sales data.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/pending-home-sales-232

REAL CONSUMER SPENDING

Real consumer spending has collapsed.  Consumer engagement makes up a large portion of all global GDP numbers.  As long as consumers stay away from normal activities, the global GDP levels will continue to contract.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/real-consumer-spending-914

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

From a technical standpoint, at this point, as long as price continues to track within the upward sloping price trend, the bullish trend may continue for a bit longer.  Once price breaks below this channel though, look out below.

Our longer-term price modeling systems continue to suggest price is still in a Bearish price trend and this move is a bullish price recovery in a bearish price trend.  Time will tell if the markets have enough resilience to push higher even further.  We believe the data is pointing to a very real potential for a new bearish price trend to emerge.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my Active Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during the next bear market, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Passive Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Q1 GDP Data Masking The True Global Economic Future?

As Q1 GDP data is released on Wednesday, April 29, which will reflect the first three months of 2020 in terms of total economic output, we believe the number will skew the current true global economic conditions to a large degree.  The pandemic shutdowns started in the US on March 15th – nearly 2 weeks before the end of Q1:2020.  Thus, we had a fairly normal Q1 in terms of economic activity, production, and consumer engagement. Everything changed after March 15th, 2020.

Skilled traders need to watch the current economic data and “week over week” data that is presented.  Skilled traders also need to pay attention to the news items that are being pushed out to the public.  Larger and larger corporations and sectors are moving towards bankruptcy or screaming for a bailout. Airlines, Hotels, Car Rental, and dozens of other sectors have all collapsed over the past 5+ weeks.  We expect real estate activity and pricing to collapse as well.  The results of the last 5+ weeks, after the March 15th shutdown started, have been anything but normal.

We continue to believe the current data and news, which is still representative of the Q1 (pre-shutdown) economic activity may lull investors/traders into believing the global economy will rebound fairly quickly from this virus event.  Traders/investors are looking at this current data and thinking, “well, this isn’t so bad”.  But they are failing to understand the true scope of the economic contraction event and what the longer-term outcome is likely to be in terms of recovery.

TOTAL WORLD GDP OUTPUT

The total world GDP output was approximately $190 trillion.  An estimated 15% to 20% global GDP contraction as a result of the Covid-19 virus event would shave $28.5 to $38.0 trillion right off the top of the 2020 global economic output.  Should the global shutdown last through the end of May 2020 (or beyond in some form), we believe the contraction in global GDP could become even more severe.

The complicated issues that arise from this global contraction in GDP also bleed over into supply-side economics.  As the world attempts to “shelter in place” to avoid spreading the virus and risking more lives, demand collapses. Once demand collapses enough (resulting in price level collapses as we’ve seen in Oil) the result in production/supply issues becomes even more complicated.  Unlike Eggs or Milk, one simply can’t bury or destroy other types of supply.  The destruction of certain industries, resources, and capabilities will become very real over time as a result of any extended contraction event.  The longer-term results of this type of event are sometimes called “stagflation” – where price levels rise as income and economic output stay moderately flat.

BEFORE WE CONTINUE, BE SURE TO OPT-IN TO MY FREE MARKET TREND SIGNALS SO YOU DON’T MISS OUR NEXT SPECIAL REPORT!

CUSTOM SMART STOCK MARKET INDEX

Our Custom Smart Cash Index highlights the “new price channel” that setup recently and why all traders/investors should really start to pay attention to how the global markets have transitioned into a new phase or price cycle.  You can see from the chart, below, that the global markets broke below an upward price channel that has been in place since 2012 recently and has established a new downward price channel spanning the December 2018 lows to the February 2020 highs.

We believe the current upward price trend on this chart is nothing more than a “bullish retracement in a bearish trend” and that the global markets will begin another downside price move within 5 to 10+ days.  As we’ve been trying to share with you over the past few weeks, the longer-term global economic disruption is just getting started.

US DOLLAR DAILY CHART

We believe the US Dollar will enter a new phase of increasing demand throughout the world as global economies begin to feel the pressures of the demand-side collapse.  We believe the US dollar is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global economic crisis simply because the US economy is the biggest and most capable economies on the planet in terms of the ability to recover from this virus event.  As foreign nations attempt to deal with weakening currencies and economies related to the collapse in demand and continued virus-related economic transitions, we believe the US economy will be one of the first global economies to regain any real growth over the next 2 to 3+ years.

Thus, we believe the US Dollar may attempt another quick downside valuation move, similar to what happened in February/March 2020, then rally to levels above 102 again as continued economic data hit the markets.  Remember, valuation levels of currencies are often based on future expectations of economic stability and capability for any nation.  The US Dollar is a bit different because it is also the “currency of choice” in terms of global economic activity.  We believe the US Dollar could begin a moderate “melt-up” process as the virus data continues to scorch the world’s economic output.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

These longer-term economic expectations are key to understanding how the recovery process will create opportunities for skilled traders and investors.  We believe the world will survive this virus event.  Yet, we also believe the global economic landscape will likely change over the next 3+ years as this virus event could very easily push many foreign nations away from economic relationships or projects they have engaged in over the past 10+ years.  This virus event is really a “big game-changer” in terms of how and what the future of the global economic world will look like for many.

As we’ve warned many times, it is not the localized “one-off” economic event that presents a real problem for the global economy – central banks can simply patch the economy up with an infusion of cash.  The bigger problems for the global economy happen when a fundamental shift takes place that lasts 6 to 12+ months and disrupts the “systems” in place throughout the globe.  We believe this virus event could start a process that disrupts supply, demand, consumer engagement, and true valuation levels of almost all commodities and assets throughout the globe over the next 24+ months.

In Part II of this article, we’ll attempt to share more data and highlight where opportunities may present real profit objectives for skilled investors and traders.

The next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders and investors.  Huge price swings, incredible revaluation events, and, eventually, an incredible upside rally will start again.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events.  The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”.  Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know many successful traders that want to risk their hard-earned money when daily price swings in various assets are moving 10% to 95%.

I’m offering you the chance to learn to profit, as I do with my own money from market trends that I hand-pick for my own trading.  These are not wild, crazy trades – these are simple, effective, and slower types of trades that consistently build wealth.  I issue about 2 to 4+ trades a month for my members and adjust trade allocation based on my proprietary allocation and risk algo – the objective is to gain profits while managing overall risks.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my strategy.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my trading experience.  My new mobile apps make it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop – updates, videos, education, and trade alerts.

I offer membership services for active traders, long-term investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading and risk modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for us to take advantage of together. Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.  I cannot say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Silver Demand vs Gold Demand

I recently talked with Jim Goddard at HoweStreet radio about gold, silver, miners, the dollar, among other things. Many markets are at major turning points and its critical that investors understand where we are in the major market cycles.

Just think of this for a minute. While most of us have active trading accounts, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our home.

If our retirement accounts are not protected during the next bear market which one will happen eventually, you could lose 25-50% or more of your net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly and uncertain like they are now. I will show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

LISTEN TO THIS CONVERSATION FOR MORE DETAILS.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is an incredible year for traders and investors.  Don’t miss all the incredible trends and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF Swing Trading Newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others watch most of their retirement funds drop 35-65% during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.