Critical Price Level Could Prompt A Big Move After Holiday

As technical traders and researchers, we’ve been paying very close attention to the GREEN ARC Fibonacci resistance level on the SPY as a key level for the US stock market and any hope of a continued upside price rally.  The SPY has traded near this level for the past three weeks and appears to be attempting a bit of an upside breakout right now.  Yet, we understand a long holiday weekend is upon us in the US, Memorial Day, and after a big upside GAP on Monday, the US stock market has stalled over the past few days.

Our researchers believe this GREEN ARC is still acting as critical price resistance and believe the SPY may sell off into the end of the week resulting in a failed attempt to breach this key resistance level.  If this happens, the failed attempt to break this resistance could prompt a change in price trend and initiate a new downside price trend.  If this resistance level is broken by the end of this week, then we have a pretty solid indicator that continued bullish price trending may continue.

Absent of any real news that may drive the market trend this holiday weekend and with most of the US still in shutdown mode, we believe the US stock market has continued to trade within this no man’s land area for many weeks now.  From the end of April till now, we’ve seen moderate upside price action in certain sectors, yet other sectors continue to show signs of weakness.

SPDR S&P500 ETF WEEKLY CHART

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TRANSPORTATION INDEX WEEKLY CHART

This Transportation Index Weekly chart is a perfect example of the weakness that is evident away from the S&P500, NASDAQ, and Dow Industrials.  Compare the last 6+ weeks of trading on this TRAN chart to the SPY chart above.  Notice that the TRAN chart shows a very congested sideways price channel (highlighted in YELLOW) as well as a much deeper upside price move from the lows near March 20.  While the US major indexes have rallied substantially, the broader market indexes are not experiencing the upside price advance and continue to suggest overall weakness.

This disconnect in the markets suggests speculation is driving the US major indexes higher and not real fundamental appreciation based on earnings and revenues.  When this speculation ends, typically when speculators realize the price has been driven a bit too high compared to reality, then the trend can change in an instant.

ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 ETF WEEKLY CHART

This IWM Russell 2000 ETF Weekly chart highlights a similarly week upside price rally since the March 20th bottom.  The WHITE LINE on this chart represents a support/resistance level from early trading low price levels in 2017.  Our research team believes these levels represent a very important support/resistance level for the Russell 2000 ETF as this level coincides with the GAP in price that was generated within the recent selloff on March 9, 2020.  That GAP cleared this key support/resistance level with a very big downside price move.  We believe this level will act as intense resistance as price attempts to fill the GAP.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Overall, the US stock market has continued to trade within this no man’s land recently.  There have been some pretty decent upside price moves in certain sectors over the past few weeks.  Precious metals, certain travel/leisure stocks, and, of course, technology and services stocks.  Yet, we continue to warn our friends and followers to be very aware that the US stock market is far from immune to more downside price activity.  A deep selloff like we experienced will very often react with a “recovery move” – a dead cat bounce type of move.  While the NQ has been a big mover, these other sectors suggest we may be nearing a tipping point and we urge technical traders to stay very aware of the risks as we head into this long holiday weekend.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events.  The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”.  Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Real Estate Showing Signs Of Collateral Damage – Part IV

This final part of our multi-part Real Estate article should help you understand what will likely transpire over the next 6+ months and how the unknown collateral damage may result in a “Double-Dip” price event taking place before August/September 2020.  In the first three parts of this article, we’ve attempted to highlight how the current COVID-19 virus event is different than any of the previous two crisis events.

We’ve also highlighted how consumer psychology will change over the next 12+ months as this event continues to unfold.  Most importantly, we attempted to highlight how the disruption in income, one of the biggest factors we should consider, for businesses, individuals, states, and governments will likely present a very real contraction event over the next 24+ months.

It is difficult to really explain how so many people fail to see what we are seeing in terms of our research.  Yes, the COVID-19 virus event will end at some point and the economy will begin to engage at growing rates.  Yet, the process of getting to that stage is likely to be full of unknown economic events over the next 24+ months.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

We’ve published articles suggesting our Super-Cycles and generational cycle research suggests we have entered a 10 to 20 year period of “unraveling and crisis processes” before a rebuilding phase can begin to take place.  If our research is correct, this unraveling and crisis phase will end near 2025~26.  This suggests we have another 5+ years of unknown collateral damage and unknown economic events

On February 24, 2020, we published this article which is very important because it warned our followers to prepare for a crisis event and to protect your portfolios with what to expect in the yield curve.

Our suggestion is to plan to set up your portfolio so you have sufficient cash in reserve in the event of an unexpected market decline.  We also suggest proper protection/hedge investments, such as precious metals and metals miner ETFs.

The reality is that mortgage delinquencies have already begun to skyrocket higher.  It is obvious to anyone paying attention that the lack of real income opportunities for individuals and businesses will translate into major economic collateral damage processes (crisis events) playing out over the next 12+ months. Depending on how the COVID-19 virus lingers throughout the world and the extent of the global shutdowns, we could be on the cusp of experiencing one of the biggest “revaluation events” in history.

This Bloomberg article summarizes our research and thinking nicely. Despite government support, we believe a massive revaluation event related to Real Estate and other assets is just starting to unfold.  Skilled technical traders will stay keenly aware of this potential event and position their portfolios to protect assets in the event of a sudden change in trend.

Price trends have just started to move lower based on this data from Realtor.com up to March 2020.  We believe the April and May data will show a substantial collapse in pricing levels – particularly in areas that continue to experience high COVID-19 issues.  This suggests California, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Florida, and other areas could experience a sustained price decline lasting more than 12to 24 months.

Florida Real Estate Price Trends

Washington Real Estate Price Trends

Watch as more populated areas (cities and larger regional areas) see a shift in consumer sentiment related to Real Estate price levels over the next 6+ months.  Once the consumers start shifting away from seeing Real Estate as an opportunity at any price and begin to watch the price levels drop, their psychology changes in terms of “when will the bottom happen?”.  Once this happens, the markets change into a Bear market trend for real estate as at-risk homeowners are placed under severe pricing pressure and markets continue to implode.

What this means for skilled technical traders is that opportunities will be endless over the next 12+ months to target real gains through skilled technical trades.  As capital shifts from one sector to another – avoiding risk and attempting to capitalize on the opportunity, skilled technical traders will be able to ride these trends and waves to create substantial gains.

Protect your portfolios now.  Don’t fall for the overly optimistic “follow the NQ higher” trade as risks are still excessive.  Wait for the right setups and determine how much risk you can afford to take on each trade. This is not the time to bet the farm on one big trade – wait for the right setups and wait for the collateral damage to play out.

It doesn’t matter what type of trader or investor you are – the move in Gold and the major global markets over the next 12+ months is going to be incredible.  Gold rallying to $2100, $3000 or higher means the US and global markets will continue to stay under some degree of pricing pressure throughout the next 12 to 24 months.  This means there are inherent risks in the markets that many traders are simply ignoring.

I keep pounding my fists on the table hoping people can see what I am trying to warn them about, which is the next major market crash, much worse than what we saw in March. See this article and video for a super easy to understand the scenario that is playing out as we speak.

If you want to learn more about the Super-Cycles and Generational Cycles that are taking place in the markets right now, please take a minute to review our Change Your Thinking – Change Your Future book detailing our research into these super-cycles.  It is almost impossible to believe that our researchers called this move back in March 2019 in our book and reports.

If you have been following me for a while, then you know my analysis and trades are the real deal. You also would know that I made over $1.9 million from the financial markets during the 2008 crash and recover into 2010. I have been semi-retired since the age of 27.  I continue to follow, predict, and trade the markets because its the ultimate business and my passion.

A bear market and its recovery can make your rich in a very short period. I believe this is about to happen again, so why not follow my super simple SP500 ETF investing strategy?  Trade with your investment account and become a stock market success with me!

I’m offering my investing signals for the next few years to those who want to know their investment capital is in the asset. Let face it; there is a time to be 100% long stocks, to own an inverse fund, and when to sit in cash. Your financial advisor would NEVER recommend a cash position, why because he is not allowed, he and his firm will not make money. Instead, they will keep you long stocks, with some bonds, and you will have to ride out the bear market rollercoaster again.

During the March Market crash, the BEST position was cash for short term trades. EVERY asset fell in value (stocks, bonds, gold, commodities) two months ago. Only one asset rallied, guess what it was? The USD dollar (CASH), moving to USD cash, gained a whopping 11% while most indexes and sectors fell 35-80+%. all you had to do was close all positions in your portfolio, and you would have looked like a hero, and that’s what I did with my account and members of my swing trading newsletter.

Follow me to success. Trade my most simple single ETF investing strategy and know when to own stocks, when to own an inverse ETF, or be in cash. For only $149 you can have the keys to the kingdom during a time when we are going to experience more historical price swings. This is as good as it gets, in my opinion.

Even if we don’t enter a new bear market this year, my investing signals will still nail the bull market and make you a ton of money. This is the most affordable insurance plan for your retirement account, so you don’t lose it – Period! Get Access Here

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

Subscribers of my ETF trading newsletter had our trading accounts close at a new high watermark. We not only exited the equities market as it started to roll over in February, but we profited from the sell-off in a very controlled way with TLT bonds for a 20% gain. This week we closed out SPY ETF trade taking advantage of this bounce and entered a new trade with our account is at another all-time high value.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

US Markets, Metals, and Oil

Cory Fleck and Chris Vermeulen share their outlook and trading strategy for US markets, precious metals, and the oil price. When it comes to US markets the biggest question is – Do the US markets have another leg higher in them? After the pop on Monday, there are some near term levels to watch.

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.  We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.  As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.  What you do with it is up to you.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our detailed free research posts.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Gold, Silver, Miners Teater On The Brink Of A Breakout

This week has been a wild and emotional one and it’s just started!

With Monday’s big pop in the stock indexes, the big rally was based on vaccine news and bullish comments from the fed, convincing most traders and investors to be overly bullish this week.

My volume flow indicator showed a reading of 10 all day yesterday, which means ten shares were being bought on the NYSE at the ask, to everyone share being sold at the bid. Any reading over 3 is considered bearish short term, so ten was extreme. After the pop on Monday, stocks/indices closed lower by 1-2% on the session respectively the following session.

I have reiterated over and over, big moves (and gaps) in the price in the stock indexes that occur from the news are generally given back within a few days. This is still what I feel is going to happen in the coming days, albeit the last hour on Tuesday may have started that retracement.

The saying in the trader’s world is that novice traders typically trade at the open and experienced players trade at the close. This continues to hold true. The chart below shows you what the BIG money payers are doing, which is selling/distributing shares to the masses, evidenced by the volume in the final hour. It is this theory why we always base our new trades to have their stop loss triggered on the closing price, and not intraday swings. Utilizing this strategy has saved many trades over the years from being stopped out, and subsequently to turn into profitable winners. It is where the price closes that counts.

PRECIOUS METALS & GOLD MINERS

Metals and miners have been coming to life. In February, we sold our GDXJ position at the opening bell on the high of the day to lock in gains. We saw weakness in the market and took action to avoid any temporary selling, which ended up turning into a 57% market collapse. Tuesday for the first time, GDXJ is trading back to where we sold it for a nice profit with our Swing Trading ETF Trading service, and I’m getting excited again for this group of stocks.

JUNIOR GOLD STOCKS (GDXJ) CLOSE TO BREAKOUT

The Junior gold stocks (GDXJ) is showing signs that they are headed to test the major breakout level of this 8-year base. The price still has to run a little higher, and it could be met with some strong selling once touched. Be aware that junior gold miners are not in the clear, just yet. Once they clear resistance they are a long-term investment position.

LARGE-CAP GOLD MINERS (GDX) ALREADY BROKE OUT

If you take a closer look at the large-cap gold miners (GDX), they have already broken out and started to rally. This is a new bull market for this particular group of stocks. We got long this new bull market a few weeks ago in my Technical Investor Portfolio which focused on long term position with a much wider stop loss than swing trading positions.

GOLD BULLION IN FULL BLOWN BULL MARKET

Gold also broke out and started a new bull market mid last year. We are also long gold in our Technical Investor portfolio as well. Gold has completed its initial move but is on the verge of popping to the $2000 market if we get just the right market conditions over the next couple of months.

We are in what many consider unprecedented times for businesses and survival. As a long-time trader, I consider these exciting stages for stocks, and commodities. Lots of things are happening and they will be erratic and volatile I expect. How the world functions are changing more rapidly than many of us realize.

The last ten years of investing in stocks have been incredible. We all experienced a Super Cycle Bull Market, and those invested in stocks and who also bought homes early have made a fortune with very little effort. But I fear this may be coming to an end sooner than most people think and feel.

The fundamentals for stocks no longer make any sense with earnings way down and still falling. The Fed is printing money faster than at any time in history as well as paying everyone and everything to keep the lights on and the music playing. They could certainly keep things going for a while and drive the markets higher with loose money policies and prop everything up (including lower-rated corporate bonds).

Can the Fed and other central banks support the global economy? Remember, it’s not just North America under pressure, but every other country and nearly everyone and their business are enduring financial stress.

The bottom line is that no matter which way the markets go, we will be positioned on the right side with technical analysis and sound advice as to what actions, if any, to take. And both active trading and long-term investment portfolio positions are more critical now than they have been in the last ten years. The days of just buying every dip and holding will be over in a couple of months.

So far it has been a crazy, unprecedented period. Add to that, over 1,000,000 new trading accounts opened this year and many new novice traders who have entered the markets.   These people are frantically buying up stocks thinking they are going to make a lot of money. We believe they are going to have a very rude awakening when/if the bear market takes hold over the next 3-8 months.

Trading this year has been slow for our subscribers but our trading accounts continue to make new high watermark levels every couple weeks, and that is all that matters. The market crash shook things up, and during an unexpected crisis the best play, in our opinion, was to step back and cherry-pick only low-risk trades until price action returns to some normal level, which the market is finally beginning to do.

However slow, I am proud that we did not take any undue risk and that our model account has remained positive throughout 2020 and we are up when most other services, including the best hedge funds in the world, have negative returns thus far this year.

My staff and I are always scouring for new trading opportunities.  Right now, the XLF ETF, which is the financial sector, is breaking down and may present a short opportunity.  As you know, we also like silver, gold, and both the junior and large-cap miners, but we will first wait to see if this wave of buying is met with sellers in the near future.  Until then, we will keep you posted.

The next few years are going to be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders and investors.  Huge price swings, incredible revaluation events, and, eventually, an incredible upside rally will start again.

I’ve been trading since 1997 and I’ve lived through numerous market events.  The one thing I teach my members is that risk is always a big part of trading and that’s why I structure all of my research and trading signals around “finding profits while reducing overall risks”.  Sure, there are fast profits to be made in these wild market swings, but those types of trades are extremely risky for most people – and I don’t know of anyone that wants to risk 50 or 60% of their assets on a few wild trades.

I’m offering you the chance to learn to profit, as I do with my own money, from market trends that I hand-pick for my own trading.  These are not wild, crazy trades – these are simple, effective, and slower types of trades that consistently build wealth.  I issue about 4 to 8+ trades a month for my members and adjust trade allocation based on my proprietary allocation strategy– the objective is to gain profits while managing overall risks.

You don’t have to spend days or weeks trying to learn my system.  You don’t have to try to learn to make these decisions on your own or follow the markets 24/7 – I do that for you.  All you have to do is follow my research and trading signals and start benefiting from my research and trades.  My new mobile app makes it simple – download the app, sign in and everything is delivered to your phone, tablet, or desktop.

I offer membership services for active traders, long-term investors, and wealth/asset managers.  Each of these services is driven by my own experience and my proprietary trading systems and modeling systems.  I have a small team of dedicated researchers and developers that do nothing but research and find trading signals for my members.  Our objective is to help you protect and grow your wealth.

Please take a moment to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.  I can’t say it any better than this…  I want to help you create success while helping you protect and preserve your wealth – it’s that simple.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Signs Of Long Term Devaluation Real Estate

Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy.  Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).

Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities.  Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income.  For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.

The coronavirus-fueled economic downturn is hitting homeowners hard. And the worst may be yet to come.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals
before leaving this page, so you don’t miss our next special report & signal!

2008-09 REAL ESTATE PRICE COLLAPSE CHART

The biggest difference between 2008-09 and now is that the Real Estate sector is not the driving force behind the economic collapse – it is part of the collateral damage of the COVID-19 virus event related to failed consumer businesses, loss of jobs, disruption to the consumer economy and the destruction of income for many.  Yes, for a while, some people will be able to keep things together and “hold on” while hoping the economy comes back to life quickly.  Others won’t be so lucky.

The one aspect of all of this that people seem to fail to understand is the shift in consumer mentality related to the shifting economic environment.  Right now, consumers are dealing with the shock of job losses, the virus crisis itself and what the future US and global economy may look like.  Many people fail to understand that we really don’t know what the recovery process will become or when it will start.  Yes, we are making progress in trying to contain the COVID-19 virus, but the process of rebuilding the global economy to anywhere near the early 2020 levels is still many months away and full of potential collateral damage events.

MULTI-SECTOR PRICE TREND CHART (DAILY)

To help illustrate how the markets are reacting to the optimism of capital being poured into the global economy vs. the reality of the Consumer and Financial sectors, this chart highlights the SPY (BLUE) current price activity vs the NASDAQ 100 Financial Sector (GREEN) and the Consumer Discretionary sector (GOLD).  The SPY recently disconnected from a very close correlation to the other sectors near mid-April – about 2 weeks after the US Fed initiated the stimulus program.  The S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW Industrials have benefited from this disconnect by attracting new investments while the Consumer and Financial sectors have really started to come under moderate pricing pressure.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this disconnect is related to the perceived reality of certain investors vs. other types of investors.  Institutional traders may be pouring capital into the US major market indexes while more conservative traders are waiting out the “unknowns” before jumping into the global markets.  We believe the extended volatility will create waves of opportunity as capital rotates between sectors attempting to find new opportunities for quick gains.

We also believe the unknown collateral damage processes will present very real risks over the next 6+ months as the markets seek out a real bottom.

A recent MarketWatch.com article suggests a new mortgage crisis in inevitable given the disruption to the US economy and consumer’s ability to earn income and service debt levels:

Pay attention.  These recent rallies in the US major indexes may not be painting a very clear picture of the risks still present in the US economy.  It is almost like speculation is driving prices higher while economic data suggest major collateral damage is still unknown.  We suggest reviewing this research article for more details:

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Dow, Nasdaq, and Small Caps

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.  We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.  As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.  What you do with it is up to you.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our detailed free research posts.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Is Headed For A Double Dip?

Our research team believes the Russell 2000 is leading the way in terms of technical analysis and future expectations.  While the NASDAQ has rallied as a result of US Fed stimulus and foreign investor activity, the Russell 2000 has set up a very clear price resistance level near $131~132 that presents very real potential for a double-dip downward price trend in the near future.

MONTHLY IWM ETF CHART

The resistance level near $131~132 suggests the IWM may rotate downward, creating a right-shoulder, and likely attempt to move down to the $96 previous lows.  If this resistance area can’t be breached by further upside price activity, then the price will likely attempt to rotate lower and rests multiple levels as price collapses back below $100 again.  The lack of upward price activity in the Russell 2000, and other market sectors, suggests the rally is isolated to the NASDAQ and certain other symbols – not broad-based.

DAILY IWM ETF CHART

This Daily IWM chart highlights the multiple levels of support below the current price levels.  Each of these may act as some form of a soft floor in price as price attempts to move lower.  Again, the lack of price to attempt to rally above the RED Resistance level on this chart suggests the Russell 2000 may have found a top and may begin to “rollover” as momentum diminishes.

If stocks are set to fall something else should start to rally. Check out my trade idea on silver!

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals
before leaving this page, so you don’t miss our next special report & signal!

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Technical Traders watch for these types of patterns because they provide an A or B type of scenario for profits.  Either, A, upper Resistance will be broken and the IWM will really past $140 and attempt a further upside price rally..  or, B, this resistance level will hold price below $140 and present a very real downside price opportunity where price may attempt to fall well below $110.

Our concern is that the initial downside price move in the markets, as a result of the COVID-19 virus event and global shutdown event, was followed by a Fed-induced “relief rally” that may be ending.  Most of the time, these big impulse moves result in a “relief recovery” before further trending takes place.  We believe the relief recovery is nearly over and the global markets may be setting up for a much bigger trending move.

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.  We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.  As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.  What you do with it is up to you.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our detailed free research posts.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head-n-Shoulders

Our research team has identified a potential trade setup in QID that correlates to our ongoing analysis of the US stock market and our Advanced Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believe a major price inflection point is setting up in the US stock market within the next 48 hours that may prompt a price trend reversal in the NASDAQ and other major US stock market indexes.  This pattern correlates to a much longer-term Head-n-Shoulders pattern that is also setting up in the SPY.

Our belief is that technical traders should wait for confirmation of this setup before entering any new trades, yet we believe we will have confirmation of this setup within 3 to 5 trading days – given the urgency of the setup with our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We believe a right-shoulder could be forming as the US stock markets push a bit higher in early trading this week. We believe the Fibonacci Price Acr’s are suggesting a major inflection point is preparing to disrupt price trends.

Just to be clear, this is a prediction, and as technical traders, we wait for confirmation before trading. This is the #1 issue with most traders. They jump the gun and buy into a trade idea before the price chart has confirmed and they lose a lot of money. Follow price, don’ try to lead it.

If our analysis is correct, we may see a fairly strong trend reversal over the next 5+ trading days as this pattern/setup complete and confirm.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals
before leaving this page, so you don’t miss our next special report & signal!

DAILY QID (INVERSE NASDAQ ETF) CHART

This Daily QID chart highlights the major RED Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that is setting up as well as the more narrow MAGENTA Arc.  Both of these arcs are aligning very close to one another.  Additionally, the RSI suggests any trend reversal to the upside could prompt a moderately large upside price trend.

NAS100 DAILY CHART

This NAS100 Daily chart highlights the right-shoulder of a longer-term price pattern that we believe may be ending soon.  If our analysis is correct, the right-side of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern may set up near the PURPLE Arc on this chart (or soon after) – prompting a broad downside price trend in the US stock market.

LONGER-TERM WEEKLY SPY CHART

This longer-term Weekly SPY chart shows the Head-n-Shoulder setup that is forming in the SPY.  Although the right side of the shoulder is rather short and volatile, we believe this setup may be a fairly strong potential pattern warning of a stronger downside price trend that may initiate soon.  Obviously, 240 (previous lows) would be an easy objective in the SPY if this happens.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

Current price levels suggest a resistance level has been reached.  If this resistance level persists in containing price and creates a Head-n-Shoulders pattern, there is a very strong likelihood that a broader downside price move may present real opportunities for profits.  Skilled traders should prepare for this potential and watch for confirmation of this pattern/setup.

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.  We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.  As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.  What you do with it is up to you.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our detailed free research posts.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now

For many years now, metals traders and enthusiasts have been patiently waiting for the move in Silver that we feel its eventually going to happen.

There is almost a ritual process in the metals market that takes place when a crisis happens.  We’ve written about this in a past article and we’ve highlighted how we believe Silver is one of the absolute best opportunities if/once it breaks out.  It goes something like this…

A.  Silver is often an overlooked “little cousin” to other precious metals like Gold and Platinum.  Many traders would rather trade/acquire Gold vs. Silver.

B.  When a crisis begins to happen, both Gold and Silver tend to collapse an initially as the shock to the markets translates into sales of precious metals to improve cash/margin requirements.

C.  As the crisis continues to unfold, Gold will typically begin a sustained upside price move over many months where Silver may move very little to the upside.  This creates a massive peak in the Gold to Silver ratio.

D.  Then, suddenly Silver starts to rally upward faster than Gold and the Gold to Silver ratio begins to collapse.  Gold continues to move higher throughout this process, but Silver is already rallying much stronger than Gold.

This is the breakout move in Silver that we believe may be happening right now and may continue for many months or years into the future.  Allow us to explain this setup in more detail.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals
before leaving this page, so you don’t miss our next special report & signal!

SILVER DAILY CHART

First, we believe an extended FLAG formation in Silver has recently completed and we believe this price wedge type of pattern will prompt a renewed upside price trend in Silver prices over the longer-term given a number of factors that many skilled traders have failed to appreciate.  Technically, a price advance from current levels to levels above $21 will prompt a big shift in thinking for Silver traders.  These new highs will suggest Silver has finally broken above the previous $20 price highs and could be skyrocketing higher as it did in 2010~12.

SILVER WEEKLY CHART

This Weekly Silver chart shows exactly why we believe this Flag Breakout could prompt a major upside price rally in both Gold and Silver.  The downside price rotation that took place after the February 2020 global COVID-19 virus event prompted a vast rethinking of value and risk.  While Gold found support fairly early, suggesting skilled traders were moving away from risk and into safe-havens, Silver has stalled below $16.50 recently.  We believe this ”second-class” status for Silver is about to end in a very big way.  Follow along.

GOLD TO SILVER RATIO WEEKLY CHART

The Flag formation setup on the Daily and Weekly Silver charts is almost like the Starting Line of an incredible upward price event.  The COVID-19 price collapse did what it was supposed to do, deflate expectations related to future market valuations and shift investor consideration of Metals for a short period of time.  As risks accelerated and equity trades were put at risk, metals sold off as traders liquidated metals positions to cover risk exposure in Equities or another market.  Now that the risk event has taken place and metals are transitioning back towards a safe-haven solution again, a new process begins – the upside advance in Gold and Silver which takes the Gold To Silver Ratio back down below 65~75.

Looking back at the 2008~09 Credit Crisis and the current COVID-19 crisis event, we can see Gold is already trading at levels which are very high compared to the peak levels in 2011 (almost 4 years after the 2008 Credit Crisis).  We can also see that the Gold: Silver Ratio has reached the 120 level on this chart – which is incredibly nearly 41% higher than the peak levels in 2008.  Comparatively, the Gold:Silver Ratio collapsed 60% from 2008 to 2011 while Gold skyrocketed from $720 to $1870 (259%).  A similar move from current Gold price levels would suggest Gold could rally well above $4,500 over the next 2+ years.

Now, how does this relate to Silver?  In 2008, Silver was trading near $9.75 just before the peak in the Gold:Silver Ratio was reached.  By 2011, Silver had reached levels above $48.25 – an incredible 495% price increase.  This suggests Silver could rally from current levels, near $15.75 to levels above $78 (or higher) if our analysis is correct.  What are we expecting to happen next?

If our research is correct, we will see an upside price move in Silver to levels above $21 to $23 over the next three to five+ weeks.  At the same time, Gold will likely rally to levels near $1999~$2100.  This simultaneous price rally in both Gold and Silver should prompt the Gold:Silver ratio to stay rather elevated.  But the next move in Silver, above $25~$30, should push the Gold:Silver Ratio below 100 from current high levels – which would collapse the RSI level showing us the longer-term price rally in Gold and Silver has confirmed.

Every time the Gold:Silver Ratio collapses substantially, more than 35 to 40 RSI points after the Gold:Silver Ratio reached new high levels, this indicates a price rally in Gold and Silver is beginning.  You can see how often this setup qualifies and confirms over the past 30+ years on the chart below.  We’ve highlighted the uptrends in Silver in GREEN.

LONG-TERM HISTORICAL GOLD TO SILVER RATIO WEEKLY CHART

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe the current FLAG formation breakout in Silver is the beginning of a much larger upside price trend that is just beginning.  Over the next few weeks and months, we believe Silver will begin an upside price advance that could last 12 to 24+ months and present an incredible opportunity for technical traders who follow price action.

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.  We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.  As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.  What you do with it is up to you.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our detailed free research posts.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

US Major Indexes Rally Into Q2 Ignoring Global Economic Conditions

Many months ago, our research team suggested any future collapse in the global markets would likely prompt a global capital shift in how capital identifies and is deployed for ROI.  We’ve continued to suggest that the more mature, global economies will become beneficiaries of any massive global collapse event and that capital will actively seek out security and safety while attempt to attain moderate returns.  We suggest reading this past research post on global central banks moves to keep the party rolling.

In 2019, we predicted a major Super-Cycle event would take place on or near August 19, 2019.  We believed this event would prompt a major downside price rotation that would prompt a shift in how capital is deployed throughout the world’s financial markets.  At that time, and still, we believe a long-term price cycle event is taking place which will prompt a deeper price bottom event that will likely complete near August or September 2020.  This raises an interesting setup related to Technical Analysis for skilled traders…

If our analysis is correct, the Q2 and Q3 global economic data will be very distressing and likely prompt a continued downside price contraction in stock price levels and valuations.  The disruption to the global economy has likely shaved 5% to 15% (or more) off total global GDP output for this year.  Still, the US Fed and global central banks have poured more and more capital into the markets attempting to front-run this contraction in the global markets.  We believe this “reprieve” in selling is likely temporary right now.  The broader, longer-term, price cycle we’ve identified it still taking place and will likely prompt a deeper price bottom in the global markets before the end of 2020.

Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report & signal!

The one aspect of recent buying that we find rather interesting is that the NASDAQ (NQ) is really the only US market sector that is outperforming all the other sectors.  This suggests that the US and global investors are piling into technology, biotech, and other NASDAQ symbols expecting these segments of the US economy to outperform the others.  This is one component of the “capital shift” we have been warning investors about.

When the crisis event begins to unfold, capital (cash) will seek out and identify various opportunities as global markets and regional market segments shift from overvalued to undervalued – from risk to opportunity.  We believe this is happening right now in the NASDAQ (NQ) and we believe the opportunity investors have piled into recently may turn into renewed risk in the near future as Q2 and Q3 economic data pushes reality into the markets.

DAILY COMPARISON CHART SHOWS THE ES, YM, AND NQ

This Daily Comparison Chart shows the ES, YM, and NQ in Log scale and highlights the collapse event for all three major indexes (almost in unison) as well as the incredible upside price rally in the NQ (RED) compared to the ES and YM.  It is fairly easy to see how the NQ (RED Line) rallied over the past 30+ days much more efficiently than the ES and YM levels.  As skilled traders were seeking opportunity, they identified the NQ as the best opportunity to deploy their capital.

Yet, if our analysis is correct and a deeper price low will be necessary to complete the broader price cycle setup that is taking place, this also means the recent opportunity in the NQ may turn into excessive risk if the markets suddenly turn downward – targeting our predicted deeper price bottom.

WEEKLY COMPARISON CHART SHOWS THE ES, YM, AND NQ

This Weekly Comparison Chart shows the same three US major indexes and highlights previous price high levels which acted as resistance in the past.  Both the ES and YM are currently trading below these resistance levels.  The NQ is trading well above the resistance level (red).  This continues to suggest that skilled traders have piled into the NQ rally expecting it to continue to outperform the S&P and Dow Jones in the future.

WEEKLY CUSTOM US INDEX CHART

This Weekly Custom US Index chart helps to paint a very clear picture of the price trend and support/resistance levels that are active within the markets.  In this chart, you’ll see many aspects of advanced technical analysis that helps us to determine where and when certain types of price action may take place.  One of our tools is the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc technique – which attempts to deploy the Fibonacci price theory based on a price trend frequency/amplitude basis.  This means each major and minor price trend (up or down) generates its own frequency/amplitude levels which project out in the past/future as key trigger levels for future price setups (tops/bottoms/rotations).  We’ve also drawn a Std. Deviation Pitchfork across the 2018 top and bottom to highlight 1.0 and 2.0 Std. Deviation ranges related to current price peaks and bottoms.

As you can probably see from the chart, the deep lows in 2020 touched a broad Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc registering a 2.618 expansion (highlighted in BLACK).  Price has, subsequently, rallied back to the 1.0 StdDev lower price range on the Pitchfork.  Additionally, there is a very important resistance price Arc that is setting up from the December 2018 price lows (highlighted in CYAN).  Lastly, another major price resistance Arc originating from the 2016 lows aligns very closely with current price levels (highlighted in YELLOW).

Our researchers have identified a price inflection date trigger somewhere between May 8th and May 12th which we believe will prompt the start of a new trend or trend reversal trigger.  We believe this inflection point suggests a bigger move will initiate near or shortly after this inflection point date.  These types of inflection points typically result in larger volatility and/or broad price trend moves as they represent price breaking through resistance, support, or some major barrier in price.  The energy it takes to break through these barriers translates into increased volatility and bigger price moves typically.

Chart Courtesy of www.TradingView.com

Currently, because of the technical setups we see that are about to trigger, we are very cautious in terms of taking unwanted risks in the markets related to trades.  These inflection points could prompt a very big upside or downside price move within the next 5+ days and even though we believe the markets will attempt to move lower in a process that completes the deeper downside bottom formation, a “washout high” price rotation may occur as price reaches and breaches this inflection point.

In our view, it is better to wait for the market to confirm trends once this inflection point is processed to determine where the next opportunity for any new trade will present itself.  As we’ve tried to highlight within this article, even though the NQ appears to be rallying back to near all-time highs, the major markets have set up a completely different set of technical analysis outcomes that suggest Q2 and Q3 weakness will likely prompt a deeper bottom pattern in the future.

The one thing we are certain of is that capital has already entered the “capital shift” process we have been suggesting over the past 24+ months.  Capital will continue to roll into and out of various US and global market segments seeking safety, returns, and opportunity while attempting to avoid risks.  We feel the US markets are very close to another topping event based on our research and believe waiting for clarity right now is the best decision skilled traders can make.  One way or another, the market will tell us what to expect after breaking past this inflection point.

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.  We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).  If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.  Our goal is to help you find and create success – not to confuse you.

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.  As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.  What you do with it is up to you.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to review all of our detailed free research posts.

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.  Remember, we’ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.  If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.  The only way you’ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.