AI Trading System Using Fibonacci Theory Forecasts Future Gold, Silver & Stock prices – Part IV

As we’ve attempted to illustrate the intuitive nature of the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system we as one of the tools to help us understand the markets and price setups, we now want to more clearly illustrate other components of the current global economic environment.  We want to illustrate just how deep the current price move resonates against historical price norms.

In Part I of this article, we highlighted the Fibonacci system running on the ES (S&P 500) charts.  The point of this example was to show that a new price low had already been established and a recent new price high (the all-time high peak) was now acting as a critical price peak.  This suggests we are in the process of establishing a much deeper price low (bottom) that may come over the next few weeks as price attempts to “revalue” current economic expectations.

In Part II of this article, we highlighted the Fibonacci Price Theory concepts and attempted to teach you how to identify major and minor Fibonacci price pivot points.  This was done to help you understand what we are attempting to share with you and to help you learn to use these techniques in the future.  The conclusion of that, Part II, shared our expectations that a new, deeper low, would likely set up in the ES and NQ markets as price attempts to establish a future bottom setup.

In Part III of this article, we shared with you the NQ (Nasdaq) Fibonacci price analysis which was similar to the ES charts.  We are attempting to share with you the reality that price will setup intermediate high and low price pivots over time.  But we are really trying to explain how the major price pivots have now set up as a massive warning that a deeper low may be targeted as long as price fails to recover to levels near the all-time highs.  As “obvious” as that may seem to you now, many traders are already entering the markets expecting a recovery similar to May 2018 or January 2019 to begin.  We urge you to reconsider the scope of this disruption of the global economy.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

WEEKLY CHART OF OUR CUSTOM SMART CASH INDEX

The first chart we want to share with you is a Weekly chart of our Custom Smart Cash Index.  This chart clearly illustrates just how destructive the recent collapse in the global economy has been.  Previous downside price rotations (Feb 2018 & October~December 2018) prompted downside price moves that stayed within the upward sloping price channel established from the 2015~2016 price range setup.

We believe this new downside price cycle will establish a new support channel for future price growth that may include a transition away from traditional economic measures.  Essentially, a “new normal” related to debt and economic expectations.

We believe this COVID-19 virus event may be unwinding a large portion of capital appreciation that originated back in 2000~2002 – after the DOT COM and 9/11 Terrorist attacks in NY.  Since that time, the US Fed and global central banks have engaged in a series of QE experiments designed to spark economic activity.  We believe the core element of the current COVID-19 economic contagion is not related to the central bank’s inability to print more money to throw at the problems in the markets.  The problem exists that a healthy market must remove risky debt/credit issues and unhealthy deficits in order to sustain real forward growth opportunities.  See this ZeroHedge article for a clear example of what we are attempting to explain: www.zerohedge.com

Looking at some of the charts from the ZeroHedge article, it becomes clear that real economic growth (in relation to proper debt expansion and economic function) likely completed a transitional cycle end near 1999~2002.  This came after the US Fed reached peak interest rate levels in the early 1980s and began a deficit spending binge that continues till today.  As credit/debt became the new norm, we can see how the expansion of credit created a broader expansion of capital valuation levels (global stock market prices) and provided for an expansion of derivatives and global shadow banking operations.  Debt begot more debt/credit – which begot more debt/credit.  And the cycle continues until it breaks.

(Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-chasm-just-too-big-fed-fill)

We believe the unwinding process of the global credit market is really just beginning.  The COVID-19 virus event was just the catalyst for this event.  The virus event prompted a collapse in the global economy because of the global economic shutdown that took place to prevent the spread of the virus.  This shutdown strained the global economic/credit market and continues to do so today, by exposing many at-risk companies and business enterprises that were operating on the “fringe” – that space where lack of consumer engagement creates a void in income while debt levels continue to plague future operations.  We believe this process of UN-leveraging debt will continue until the markets decide a suitable amount of risk has been removed from the markets.  This is when global economic expansion and growth will begin to take hold.

WEEKLY CUSTOM VOLATILITY INDEX – DELEVERAGING IS THE NEW NORMAL

This Weekly Custom Volatility Index highlights the potential for a “new normal” range as the recent deep low levels on this chart suggests a “deleveraging” process is currently taking place.  Even as the US Fed and global central banks pour trillions into the markets, this Custom Volatility Index continues to suggest deleveraging is still ongoing throughout the global markets.  Our research team believes the US Fed and global central banks are simply sucking up the immediate risk “froth” in the global markets while the “real meat” of the issue still persists.

PRECIOUS METALS ANALYSIS POINTS TO HIGHER PRICES LONG TERM

This analysis leads us to Precious Metals – yes, we know, everyone is talking about Gold and Silver right now.  Yet, the real reason we are talking about Gold and Silver is because we believe the current economic environment will present an incredible (once in a lifetime) opportunity for skilled traders.  Once you truly understand the process that is taking place throughout the globe and how debt/credit expansion over the past 45+ years has propelled the capital markets to massive highs while the metals market has been ignored.

Recently, Gold has rallied to a 6+ year high and Silver is still trading near multi-year lows.  The reality is that the global stock market is about to experience a credit/debt revaluation event that is unlike anything we’ve seen since 1929 and/or WWII.  Precious metals are about to enter a phase that has never been experienced in recent history.  What happens to safe-havens throughout the process of a global market credit/debt crisis event?  What happens to metals as the global economy attempts to wash-away excessive debt, derivatives and shadow banking risks that have built up over the past 40+ years?

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If we are correct and our Fibonacci price modeling systems are correct, a deeper price low in the global markets is about to set up that will attempt to force a “wash-out” event in the global credit/debt markets.  This process will likely send precious metals skyrocketing higher.  The unknowns of this process are the same unknowns that happened after 1929 & WWII – what will the new financial functions and societal structure be composed of?  Until that side of the future becomes more clear, expect a number of unknown factors to continue to drive excessive volatility and risk in the global markets.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Artificial Intelligence Fibonacci Trading System Predicts Next Price Move

Now that you’ve learned about Fibonacci Price Theory Part I and how major and minor Fibonacci Price Pivots help to map out true price structure Part II, we’ll continue our research article illustrating why we believe a deeper price low should take place before a true bottoms sets up in the US and global markets.

Our researchers use a host of available tools and proprietary price modeling systems in an attempt to identify the most likely outcome of future price activity.  Within this article, we’re focusing on the Fibonacci Price Theory and our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We just taught you about Fibonacci Price Pivots and how to use them.  Now, we are going to go into a detailed analysis of deeper Fibonacci price theory with the NQ (NASDAQ)

DAILY NASDAQ FIBONACCI CHART

This Daily NQ chart, below, should show you a whole new world if you are viewing the chart bars in the Fibonacci price structure.  The recent highs in price, near 8000, have established a minor Fibonacci High Pivot.  There is another minor Fibonacci High Pivot back near 9000 in the midst of the sell-off.  There are others in this chart as well – see if you can find them.

The structure of price based on Fibonacci Price Theory continues to suggest that resistance will be found near the 7875 or the 8210 levels in the NQ that may prompt a strong Bearish price reversal.  The NQ price would have to rally to levels above 9000, at this point, to qualify as a potential Bullish trend based on Fibonacci Price Theory.  The minor price pivot high near 9000 can be interpreted at a Major Price Pivot because of the size of the downside price move.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

WEEKLY NASDAQ FIBONACCI CHART

This last chart highlights our Weekly Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system and shows the GREEN Trigger Line on the right side of the chart.  The Bullish Trigger level on the NQ Weekly chart is at 8200.  This suggests that the NQ price would have to rally and close above the 8200 level to have any type of early confirmation of a potential bullish price trend.  If the price were to fail near 8200 and fall below this level, then the bullish trigger is negated.

You can see what our research team expects to happen by the drawn levels on the chart below.  We believe a deeper price low must complete in order for the proper Fibonacci price structure to set up a bottom.  The next Major low price pivot for the NQ is the 2018 low level near 5824.  It is very likely that this level will become the next downside target should the current NQ price rally fail.  Remember, failure to establish a new price high means price must attempt to establish a new price low.

A couple of weeks go I published a PDF guide on how to identify market trends both short-term and long-term using some basic indicators.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

If you are trying to call a bottom in this market, we urge you to move towards a safer stance in your investing style.  We moved our clients into a nearly 100% cash position just before the peak in the markets.  Since then, we’ve been very protective of assets and allocated only a small portion of our capital to new trade signals.

This is not the time to get married to any positions or trades.  The markets can change in an instant and the volatility is still excessive (VIX above 40)

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Our Fib Trading System is Telling Us Where The Market Is Headed Next

In this section of our multi-part research post centered around our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s expectations, we are focusing on the NQ (NASDAQ futures) and the future expected price rotations. As we discussed earlier, in Part I, Fibonacci price theory teaches us that price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows within a trend.  Reversals happen when price fails to continue establishing new price highs or new price lows and breaks above or below a recent critical price level.

First, we’ll focus on the major Fibonacci Price Pivots and how to identify and use them with the Fibonacci Price Theory.  Major Price Pivots are points in time where a major new High or Low price is established that becomes a critical price top or bottom.  Often, within extended trending, a minor price pivot will become a major price pivot simply because the price trend has extended for many weeks or months without establishing any type of moderate price rotation.  The reason we could consider a minor price pivot as a major price pivot is that, within the extended trend, we attempt to identify where price setup a “unique low” or “unique high” as a point of support or resistance within the trend.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

WEEKLY NASDAQ CHART – MAJOR PIVOTS

Here is a Weekly NQ chart highlighting the major Fibonacci Price Pivots.  Notice the Major Low Pivot in late November 2019 that was identified as a “minor to major” pivot.  These major price pivots become a road map telling us where price MUST go in order to establish a new trend or to change trend direction.

Currently, the bearish trend is clearly identifiable because the price has recently broken below the last major Fibonacci Low Price Pivots and established a “new price low”.  In order for us to consider this bearish trend is completed or over, the price would have to rally all the way back to break the move recent major Fibonacci High Price Pivot (near the recent peak). A couple of weeks go I published a PDF guide on how to identify market trends both short-term and long-term using some basic indicators.

NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART – MINOR PIVOTS

Now, let’s learn about the minor Fibonacci Price Pivots…

This next Weekly NQ chart highlights the minor Fibonacci Price Pivots.  These are the price lows and highs that do not constitute a “critical price high or low” on the chart.  They are still valid for us in our understanding of Fibonacci price theory and where future price may attempt to rally or selloff to and they help skilled traders in understanding the true nature of price activity and structure.

Minor Fibonacci Price Pivots are intermediate unique high or low price levels that set up the “wave structure” in price that we are attempting to illustrate to you.  When price moves higher, a series of new higher highs and higher lows usually sets up within that trend.  When price moves lower, a series of new lower lows and lower highs usually set up within that trend.  These minor pivots are a method of tracking this type of price activity and a process of learning the major and minor price levels that usually become very important in determining what is really happening in price structure.

COMBINING BOTH MINOR AND MAJOR PIVOTS

Now, we’ll combine these major and minor pivots onto one chart to grasp the bigger price structure.

Once we combine these major and minor Fibonacci Price Pivots onto one chart, you should be able to see the “road-map” of the structure of price fairly easily.  You should be able to see how Major Pivots setup massive critical price structures (tops and bottoms) that establish the major support and resistance levels in price.  These also become major trigger levels for broader trends and reversals in price.  You should also be able to see how the Minor Pivot Levels offer intermediate price guidance and shorter-term support and resistance as price attempts to work through the Fibonacci Price Theory Structure.

Remember, the Fibonacci Price Theory suggests that price is always attempting to reach new highs or new lows within a trend.  Thus, if it is not attempting to reach new highs, then it must be an attempt to reach new lows.  These pivot structures are the keys to understanding the true Fibonacci price theory.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Currently, The NQ would have to rally all the way back above 9750, the most recent Major Fibonacci Pivot High, in order to qualify for a new Longer-term Bullish trend.  We expect the price of the NQ will rotate lower in the near future simply because the most recent confirmed price trend was the breakdown low in early 2020 that broke below the past three major Fibonacci Low Price Pivots.

Remember the Fibonacci Price Theory tells us that Price is always attempting to establish new price highs or lows – all the time.  Thus, if the newest price low has broken below the past Major Low Price Pivots, then the trend is considered Bearish until price confirms it has broken above the most recent Major High Price Pivot.

As you continue to learn Fibonacci Price Theory and apply these techniques, remember that these types of price structures are fundamental components to the much broader technical analysis techniques and modeling systems we use every day for our clients.  We want to help you learn to become a better trader and learn to identify solid trading signals.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders. 2020 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders.  Don’t miss all the incredible moves and trade setups.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts. These simple to follow ETF swing trades have our trading accounts sitting at new high water marks yet again this week, not many traders can say that this year. Visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests A Deeper Bottom Will Setup

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles.  The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently.  This downside move has been mostly straight down, excluding a brief retracement in early March.  The strength of this downside price move suggests a moderate upside price recovery will take place before the next downside leg sets up.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART OF 2008-09 CREDIT CRISIS MARKET COLLAPSE

Throughout the 2008-09 Credit Crisis market collapse, prices staged multiple recovery attempts within the downward price trend.  The first, after the initial -20.88% selloff in late 2007, resulted in a +14.83% price recovery that lasted for over 15+ weeks.  The second recovery, near the end of July 2008, resulted in a +9.56% recovery after a nearly -17% price decline.  After this brief recovery in July 2008, the price collapsed by a massive -44% from August to November 2008.

DAILY S&P 500 CHART

This Daily ES chart highlights the first two levels of resistance at 2700 & 2870 that could stall the rally and prompt a downside price move in the future. Support is currently at 2450.  We believe the 2700 level will act as a soft ceiling in the ES where price may attempt to rally, briefly, above this level, which it did yesterday, then pull back and pause as selling pressure re-enters the market.  The 2870 level may act as a hard ceiling where price may attempt to reach this level, but immediately reverse back to the downside.

Overall, we believe continued selling as a result of forward global economic expectations is the most obvious outcome where a deeper price bottom will setup sometime later this spring or early summer.

WEEKLY S&P 500 CHART

This Weekly S&P 500 chart (ES) shows a possible outcome for price going forward if another downside move starts.  A new downside price move to levels near to, or just below, the 2015~16 low price range is not unreasonable. From this level, we believe a “Flag” formation will setup creating an extended price bottom pattern down at those extreme lows.  We believe this “Flag” formation will end near August~October 2020, just before the 2020 elections and prompt the beginning of a new upside price recovery in the US and global markets.

This is a large forward-looking projection and you may be rolling your eyes, but they are very possible. In fact, last year we predicted the months and price levels in which gold and oil would start new major trends, and we did this 8 months before they took place, similar to what we are proposing here.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The rotation in price setup by this brief upside price move will set up a new Fibonacci downside and upside price target range.  We believe it is essential for price to continue this type of rotation as the eventual bottom sets up in the US and global markets.  We believe the true price bottom will happen only after the virus event has subsided and global economies begin to start functioning like normal again.

Currently, there is simply too much of a world-wide disruption to expect that the bottom has already set up near last year’s (2019) brief price lows.  The scale and scope of the current downside price collapse do not properly reflect the total scope of this global virus event yet – it is still a reactionary move in price that has yet to properly digest the total scope of the global economic disruptions. There is a chance for stronger bounce/rally in the next few weeks/months if the virus can start to be contained, and that will continue to mimic that of the 2000 tech bubble. Believe it or not, there is a big similarity to what happened then, to what is happening now in terms of price action and market sentiment. Read article and see these charts.

In other words, we believe more selling will be seen in the global markets and more economic contraction will take place until we are safely beyond this virus event.  The longer the global economic shutdown continues, the more likely we are to see a deeper price bottom in the future and the more likely we are to see more extensive economic collateral damage across the world. No matter which way the markets move we will follow and trade the price action and profit. That is the benefit of following price vs trying to trade prediction, fundamental data etc.

In Part II of this research article, we’ll dig deeper into the underlying components that support our research.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Is Natural Gas Ready For An April Rally

Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price).  Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders.  The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.

For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias.  A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.

Our data mining utility reported the following data for April, May, and June in Natural Gas.

MONTHLY NATURAL GAS PRICE CHART

If we look at the APRIL data, the POS bars = 17 and the NEG bars = 8 – that sets up a slightly greater than 2:1 ratio of advancing price over declining price in April.  The “Total Monthly Sum” across 25 instances of data is $1.12 whereas the Average for the POS price activity comes to just $0.24.

This suggests that in April, we have a fairly high opportunity for some upside price activity in Natural Gas based on this data – a nearly 2:1 advancing price ratio (historically).  Yet it also means that advancing price may only rally $0.35 to $0.75 from any price bottom – so we have to be aware of risks that may exists with a small price advance from the current low levels.

If we take a look at the MAY data, the POS bars = 13 and the NEG bars = 11 – that sets up a 1.18:1 ratio that suggests a very slight advantage to the possibility that continued upside price activity will happen in May.  Yet, the upside price advantage shown my the “Total Monthly Sum” data suggests a very big opportunity for a breakout rally in May (+$2.40).  The way I interpret this data is to understand that May is roughly 60/40 biased to the upside whereas if any upside move takes place in April, a continuation of that trend in May could be incredibly profitable with a proper strategy.

Take a look at the JUNE data and try to come up with an interpretation yourself.  The POS bars / NEG bars represent a less than 1:1 ratio.  The Total Monthly Sum ($0.21) is not a very substantial price advance.  The data is somewhat indecisive or inconclusive in suggesting any real price advantage in June for trading.

Yet, we have a very clear advantage in April and May.  So, how are we going to approach this trade setup?

WEEKLY NATURAL GAS CHART – CYCLES & SUPPORT

Currently, NG is testing very deep price levels within the BLUE support range box.  Aggressive traders can attempt to look for opportunities within this range but must understand risks are still high for continued moderate price decline before a bottom sets up in April.  Skilled traders would wait for the bottom to set up and possibly look for opportunities in ETFs as a means to limit risks on initial positions – attempting to scale into the trade comfortably.

Once the rally in NG really sets up and breaches the $1.98 level moving higher, then we believe we have a very real rally on our hands that may see price levels back above $2.75 eventually.  The $1.85 to $1.99 price level will act as resistance as price attempts to move higher.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Why are these types of setups so important to skilled traders?  Historical price structures and patterns, like this data mining pattern, help to clearly illustrate strategic advantages in certain markets for skilled traders. Determining how to set up a proper trade knowing this data is also important.  Risks exist with every trade you make and I’m sure we’ve all learned a lesson or two about making a hasty trade and not thinking about it?

Our research team believes April and May 2020 could be very exciting for Natural Gas.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles in stocks and commodities. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for investing and short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Two Leading Indicators for Crude Oil Point To Higher Prices

On Friday morning I created these charts on the price of crude oil, the energy sector stocks (XLU), and also the Canadian Dollar, which I think paint a clear picture of what to expect for the price of crude this coming week.

I always like to look at the leading indicators of the asset which I am interested in trading. For those trading the price of crude oil you should be watching what the energy stocks are doing or the sector as a whole. I use XLE ETF for this. I also will show you the Canadian dollar and what it is going later in this post.

Energy stocks are a way for traders to leverage the move in oil so the smart/big money tends to move into these stocks before the underlying commodity (oil) will start to change direction.

PRICE OF CRUDE OIL – DAILY CHART

Oil has been trading sideways for a couple of weeks. The range may not look big but just note that it’s a roughly 25% range from the bottom to the top of the blue box. The key take-aways here is simple. Oil is still trading at the bottom of the chart and trading sideways. What we will be looking for is a breakout of this zone in either direction which should induce a strong rally or selloff to the expected price levels of $34, or $14. These moves are likely to happen quickly over a 2-3 day period to expect an explosive move.

PRICE OF ENERGY SECTOR STOCKS ETF (XLE) – DAILY CHART

Energy stock generally leads to the price of oil by a few days. The important points on this chart are that price has rallied off the lows, and is forming a bull flag pattern which means higher prices are expected.

Much like crude, a break in either direction in XLE can be traded, but the pattern which has formed puts the odds in favor of an upside breakout and rally of roughly 12%.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

PRICE OF CANADIAN DOLLAR – DAILY CHART

The Canadian dollar is very tied to the energy sector, both the price of oil and energy stock because we are a resource-rich country, with oil being once of our top resources.

As you can see in the chart below the Canadian dollar it too has formed a bull flag pattern and looked primed and ready for another rally higher. The currency market, in general, is massive and when a large asset class is showing signs of reversing you better pay attention.

When I see a currency forming strong pattern to give us an expected price breakout direction, I like to look at what that is telling me. What companies or commodities will this move affect? In this case, money is moving into the Canadian dollar expecting oil to bottom and rally which should help increase the value even more.

I TALK LIVE ON TV ABOUT THESE TRADE SETUPS

If you want more details on this trade setup just watch this clip from TraderTV where I talked with Brendan Wickens in detail. Click Here To Watch Video

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, this coming week is most likely going to be much wilder than last week. While I didn’t cover on the other asset classes just know that precious metals, the major stock indexes, bonds, and oil have al built powerful patterns. Breakouts of these patterns will trigger big moves 10-25% in some cases, so get ready for fireworks this week!

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter.

We all have trading accounts, and while our trading accounts are important, what is even more important are our long-term investment and retirement accounts. Why? Because they are, in most cases, our largest store of wealth other than our homes, and if they are not protected during a time like this, you could lose 25-50% or more of your entire net worth. The good news is we can preserve and even grow our long term capital when things get ugly like they are now and ill show you how and one of the best trades is one your financial advisor will never let you do because they do not make money from the trade/position.

If you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal for subscribers.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up!

For years, many Gold Bugs (investors who’ve been advocating buying Gold and Silver at low prices as a hedge against future global economic risks) were shunned as conspiracy theorists and nuts. How could these people believe Gold and Silver were solid investments when the Global equities markets were rallying 5% a year consistently – what could go wrong?

Over the past two weeks, I have personally received multiple phone calls and emails from friends and associates asking how these people can suddenly ”buy physical metals”. In one case, this individual was purchasing Airline and Food Services stocks in late February thinking this move would be short-lived and telling me how the airlines would recover quickly after this is all over.  Now, that person wants to know my secret contacts for buying physical metals.

If you know any Gold Bugs, you know we’ve built relationships with suppliers, friends and other Gold Bugs throughout the year. Believe it or not, I can still buy physical metals from a few of my closest associates in the industry. Eric Sprott is a fan of my precious metals forecasts and talked about my work a few times publicly. Eric owns SprottMoney.com. the other source is SDBullion.com. Both of these are my most trusted sources for buying physical gold and silver, I have never had any issues with them and customer support is top-notch!

Yes, the prices have begun to skyrocket a bit – Silver especially.  But I can still buy physical metals because I have a deep resource of friends and suppliers.

What’s going to happen over the next few weeks is that more and more average people are suddenly going to realize they should have been buying metals as security against risk.  Paper metals are going to explode as well, but physical metals will demand a premium that is much higher than paper/spot price. Right now, one ounce of Silver is going for about $21 to $25 per ounce in physical form (depending on my sources).  The current SPOT price of silver is $14.50. That means the premium for physical Silver is between +45% to +75% right now in the open market.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

DAILY GOLD CHART

This Daily Gold chart highlights the upside Fibonacci price targets using our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe the next upside price target for Gold is $1825. A higher upside price target is visible on this chart near $1950 and we believe Gold prices will reach this level eventually.  But we believe the current $1825 level is the immediate target.  This would represent an immediate +10 upside price advance and would establish NEW HIGH prices for the past 9 years.

SILVER DAILY CHART

This Silver Daily chart also highlights our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system and shows an upside price target of $17.25.  Remember, the current physical demand for Gold and Silver has skyrocketed over the past 2+ weeks. The Spot price is really not indicative of the open market price of physical at the moment.  If Spot Silver moves to $17.25 as we predict, that would be a +19% upside price advance.  If Silver advances to $18.25, that would be a +26% upside price advance.

You should also take a look at our silver chart from 1999 and what happened then, and should happen again now as well.

Silver Bugs are loving the setup right now because they know the pattern that sets up in the Metals market when a crisis hits.  First, Gold begins to rally faster than Silver and the Gold to Silver ratio spikes higher.  Then, once the shock-wave of the market crisis subsides, the metals begin a fairly usual price advance where both Gold and Silver advance – in unequal forms.  This is when the real fun for Gold & Silver Bugs begins.

GOLD TO SILVER WEEKLY RATIO CHART
THE SILVER LINING

Take a look at this Gold to Silver Weekly Ratio chart.  This chart measures how much one ounce Silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold at current prices.  Notice that spike in the ratio back in 2008?  That was the spike in gold prices relative to Silver prices as the top formed in 2008 and the “shock wave” struck global investors.  What happened?  Everyone tried to pile into the Gold trade and ignored Silver for about 6+ weeks.

Then what happened to the Gold to Silver Ratio?  It COLLAPSED from levels near 85 to a bottom hear 31.  That means the price of Silver advance almost 3x faster than the price of Gold over that span.  In order for the ratio to fall from near 90 to levels near 30, that indicates a very expansive price increase in the price of Silver.

Now, take a look at what has happened just recently in the Gold to Silver Ratio…  another massive price spike.  This time, the spike reached levels near 120 (Yikes).  Can you guess why Gold and Silver Bugs are so excited right now? If another price advance takes place in precious metals which is similar to the 2008~2011 rally, Gold may see a 300% to 500% rally and Silver may see a 450% to 900% rally over the next 2 to 3 years.

View chart by TradingView.com

This is no joke.  Physical metals are why Gold and Silver Bugs believe the value of having it in your hands is much better than owning an IOU from a broker or bank.

Get ready for some incredible price moves in the metals markets and congrats to all the Gold and Silver bugs out there.  Our analysis says our patience and accumulation of physical metals will soon pay off in a big way.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals which we issued a new signal this week!

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Kevin O’leary and Chris Vermeulen on TraderTV Talking Economy & Markets

What a week, thank goodness its Friday cause we need a break for all the market volatility and weakening economic data.

TraderTV had both Kevin O’Leary and me to talk economy and the markets. Kevin had some really extreme and borderline ethical business ideas, but I do have to admit, if you want to survive as a small business in this environment he has a good point and it could work. I’ll talk about that in a minute, but right now lets takes focus on crude oil, energy stocks, and the Canadian Dollar in the clip below.

TRADERTV ASKS CHRIS HOW TO TRADE OIL, ENERGY STOCKS, AND LOONEY

TRADERTV ASKS KEVIN ABOUT OIL, THE MARKETS, WHAT PEOPLE SHOULD DO

Kevin talks about not paying your rent, suppliers, etc… to preserve cash your business as long as you possibly can. The hope is that this virus and the economic situation stabilize sooner than later but we just don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel yet.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Stock Market Has Entered a 25-35year Crisis Cycle Re-evaluation Event

We can only imagine what many of you are thinking and feeling right now.  Shock?  Concern?  Despair?  Some of you have already emailed us asking about the US and Global markets to find out what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  Today, we’re going to show you what the longer-term Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting for the S&P and NASDAQ.

First, we want to ask you to slow down, take a few seconds to realize we will recover from this virus event and the smart thing to do is protect your family, protect your assets, and prepare for the future.  Market crashes happen only 2-3 times in a lifetime and they, not the end of the world or financial system.

This event is different than the 2000 or 2008 market crash events.  Each of those past events was somewhat localized events that disrupted a segment or portion of the global economy.  Yes, the 2008 event was bigger than the 2000 event, but the localization of the event still presented a similarity that provided a moderately quick recovery process.

Before we continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals 
before closing this page, so you don’t miss our next special report!

Next, we want you to attempt to understand this virus event is a bit different than the most recent crash events.  A virus pandemic of this nature will likely result in a much broader economic contraction and various collateral damage processes as it transitions across the globe.  Currently, our research team is attempting to watch for the early signs of these collateral damage processes to determine if a broader global market collapse is going to take place.  At this time, we must all try to prepare for what is unknown and could happen in the future.

The longer-term generational cycle (the roughly 85-year Strauss-Howe Theory suggests societies navigate a long term cycle that repeats itself, roughly, every 85 years).  This societal evolutionary theory centers around the concept that people repeat many of the same failures learned by previous generations – roughly every 85 years.  What was learned in the 1920s~1940s will have been forgotten in the 1990s~2020 and many of the same mistakes will be made.

One of our researchers, Brad Matheny, authored a book in March 2019 that analyzed these super-cycles and accurately predicted this market crash could happen as early as August or September 2019.  Within this book, Mr. Matheny made great efforts to illustrate how important it is for everyone to become aware of these bigger market cycles and to prepare for what was likely to come near the end of 2019 and into early 2020.  You can get your own copy of this book here.

Additionally, smaller market cycles take place within the bigger super-cycles. This example of the 8.6-year business cycle highlights the repetitive nature of these broader market cycles.  Think about how 10 of these smaller business cycles equal the much larger 85-year generational cycle.  Now, think about how each stage of the roughly 20~21 year generational cycle has played out over the last 85 years.

This screen capture highlights the phases and structures of the broader Strauss-Howe generational theory.  Pay very close attention to how structured the process is and what to expect in the future.  Also, notice that we entered a CRISIS phase in 2005.

Past cycles have lasted more than the average 20~21 years.  Longer cycle lengths are not uncommon within the broader 85-year super-cycle when larger societal events take place.  Thus, this current CRISIS phase could last 25 to 35 years before a new HIGH phase sets up.

The reason we are bringing all of this together within this article is because we want to clearly stress forward and future expectations as well as to make our longer-term market concerns very clear to all of you.  If, as the generational cycles suggest, we have entered a CRISIS phase and are moving toward a HIGH phase, then we are in the midst of a phase that can be very destructive to institutions and society as a whole.

“According to the authors, the Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.”

These super-cycles and the broader “collateral damage” issue is what leads our researchers to believe the US and Global markets may continue to target much deeper price support levels before finding a bottom.  Even though the US and global central banks are doing everything possible to avoid a contagion economic collapse, we believe many people have “forgotten” about these broader market cycles and may be shocked to learn the COVID-19 virus event is happening in the midst of an 85-year generational Super-Cycle that predicts a true price bottom (new HIGH phase) may not set up until 2030~2035.

Let’s take a look at where our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting the markets may bottom.

DAILY S&P 500 FUTURES CHART

We’ll start by exploring this Daily ES chart which highlights two key Fibonacci downside price targets: 1683 and 1225.  Look for the GREY and RED lines near the bottom of this chart and look for the BLUE/RED and GREY SQUARES near the right edge of this chart.  These SQUARES are the DAILY Fibonacci downside price targets as calculated by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.

Also, pay attention to the CYAN price channel that we’ve drawn on this chart highlighting the current downside price channel that has setup.  It is our opinion that price will likely attempt to stay within this price channel as it moves deeper to target these support levels – eventually attempting to set up a bottom near either of these deeper Fibonacci support levels.

WEEKLY S&P 500 FUTURES CHART

This Weekly ES chart highlights the Weekly Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system’s results – which are almost exactly the same as the Daily targets.  This is very important if you understand that the Fibonacci price structure is supposed to be structured in a universal means throughout all price activity.  Thus, if the Daily and Monthly Fibonacci Modeling system is targeting the exact same levels – then this carries much greater importance to us.

The same downside targets in the ES are 1683 and 1225.  These represent a continued downside price move of -32.75% or -50.25% from current levels.  The YELLOW lines we’ve drawn on the chart represent what we believe the bottom may look like if the first level of support, 1683, acts at a bottom.  We do believe a bottom will set up in a FLAG formation that may take many months to complete before any real rally begins.

We issued an important investment trade alert this week that you should know about if you have not read this alert so be sure to do so now!

WEEKLY NASDAQ FUTURES CHART

This Weekly NQ chart points to an even deeper price bottom.  The downside Fibonacci targets are 3900 and 1865 (-48.59% and -75.15% below current price levels).  These deeper price targets suggest the NASDAQ market may become unusually volatile over the next 12 to 24+ months.  We believe this could become an unforeseen risk for many global investors that believe technology will recover faster than many other market sectors.  If our research is correct, the NASDAQ could collapse to far deeper levels than the S&P or the Dow Industrials.

How could the NASDAQ collapse like this?  Remember the “collateral damage” aspect and think about what it would take for these technology companies to loose their financial support?  Companies like Twitter, Uber and dozens of others operate with negative annual cash-flow – they depend on spending money they can’t earn to stay in business.  If this cash reserve vanishes – what happens?

The process of getting to these lows can come in many forms – yet the targets are still there for us to understand and prepare for.

On the weekend I wrote an interesting post sharing a trading experience I had during the 2000 bull market and how there are some similarities in price patterns and psychologically with traders as we have right now. It’s worth a read.

Watch for the global markets to continue to target recent lows.  On the NQ chart, above, we’ve drawn some CYAN lines near recent lows to illustrate these levels.  If the global markets do collapse to the Fibonacci levels we are predicting, then a much bigger contagion event is taking place along with the generational cycles and an unraveling of many institutional processes and functions.  Remember, we may continue within the CRISIS phase of the Super-Cycle for another 3 to 10+ years.  The COVID-19 virus event may be just the trigger of this collapse – but the writing has been on the wall for many decades.

Be very cautious buying into these dips at the moment.  We have been warning about this event for a while. Just last week we published a short guide and our basic trading and investing strategy on how to profit from bear market cycles – explained. Our researchers predicted August/September 2019 as the “critical date” and urged “move to cash” at that time to protect your assets from this event – few listened to us while the markets continued to push higher.

Luckily, on February 23rd we closed out all of our remaining positions for our active ETF trading account with our subscribers. Our trading accounts are sitting at a new high watermark and we avoided the market crash and took advantage of the 20% rally in bonds.

Maybe more people will listen to us after reading this article and prepare for what may come in the near future?  Maybe some of you will grasp the idea that these Super-Cycles are real and learn this may become the greatest opportunity of your life with our help.

As a technical analyst and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.

I hope you found this informative, and if you would like to get a pre-market video every day before the opening bell, along with my trade alerts visit my Active ETF Trading Newsletter. If you are a long-term investor with any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my Long-Term Investing Signals.

Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategies
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

DOWNLOAD PDF OF ARTICLE – CLICK HERE