Transportation Sector Is Testing Resistance

The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs.  Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations.  When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.

The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018.  A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months.  With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.

Should the resistance level near $11,050 continue to operate as a ceiling for the TRAN, we’ll know soon enough as price should begin to move back below $11,000 and possibly attempt to retest $10,800.  A key Fibonacci trigger level currently rests near $10,800 that would indicate a potential for a new bearish trend if this level is broken.

This Weekly TRAN chart, below, highlights just how important the current resistance level really is.  This $11,050 level actually plays a key role in the 2018 price rotation and is the key resistance level for the December 2018 rotation peak.

As we’ve continually suggested, Fibonacci price theory suggests that price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows.  If this new price high, above the $11,050 fails, then price should attempt to rotate lower and attempt to break the $10,000 low level created in early April 2019.

We suggest traders take a very cautious long-biased stance in the markets right now.  Weakness could come out of the shadows fairly quickly as earnings hit.  The Iran Oil news hit the markets quickly on Monday.  We could wake up to some dire earnings news this week that could send the markets lower and push some of these resistance levels into a topping formation.

Additionally, as you look at this Weekly chart, pay attention to the fact that we could be setting up a Right Shoulder of a Head-n-Shoulders pattern if new all-time highs are not reached.  There are many ways to attempt to read this chart and the TRAN should lead the markets if a price move does breakout.

Our research says we should continue to see an upward price bias for at least another 10~35+ days before any real sign of weakness shows up.  We are still urging traders to take a very cautious approach to their trading until we see the TRAN break to new highs.  We feel it is wise to trade this area very cautiously over the next 30+ days.

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Chris Vermeulen

This Week In Money: Oil, Gold, and More – Featuring Chris Vermeulen, Ross Clark, Marc Faber, and Tim Wood

 

Want to hear more from Chris Vermeulen? Check out our articles and trade alerts at  Technical Traders Ltd. – Technically Proven Strategies, Alerts, & Courses. 

Our April 21~24 Gold Call Is Here

One of the most important things about making calls about any future price movement is to have confidence in your research team and systems.  The second most important thing is to make these calls public so everyone can see if you were right or wrong about your predictions.  Predicting the future, often many months in advance, is not an easy task.  We like to ask people, how many people do you know that can predict something in the future, almost to the exact day, and find they were accurate more often than being wrong?

Well, this is the time we’ll see if our predictions are accurate or not.  Back in October 2018, we issued a research post indicating that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall, then set up a momentum base between $1260 and $1275 near mid-April or early May.  Here is a link to that public post: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/

In February/March 2019, our research team honed in on the April 21~24 dates as a key cycle date for a very likely momentum bottom setup.  You can read our research here.  We believe these dates will be key to the future rally in Gold and they may very well be the last time we see sub-$1300 price levels for a while, but gold does need to reverse to the upside this week.

Currently, Gold is trading at $1278.10 with a recent low at $1273.  Remember our original prediction that the momentum base would likely setup between $1260 and $1275?  Right now, we believe this Momentum base is setting up exactly as we predicted back in October 2018 – over 6 months ago.

As we continue to watch this Momentum Base setup play out, we urge skilled traders to watch the outlying symbols for signs of confirmation and validation.  The news about the Iran Oil Sanctions, today, may become a key element going forward – but it is too early to tell right now.  We believe some global economic event will drive prices of Gold much higher over the next 30+ days.

Gold has moved lower over the past 30+ days from the $1340 level down to near the $1270 level – just as we predicted as well.  The timing of this recent downswing in price is perfect for our April 21~24 Momentum Base call.  We do believe there is still a chance that a $1255 to $1260 level may be seen this week or next.  The Momentum Bottom/Basing formation may form over a 7 to 10+ day range.  So, pay attention to these opportunities in Gold over the next few days and weeks.

NUGT (3x gold miners bull ETF) continues to fall as Gold Bases.  In fact, NUGT has fallen to levels that we have not seen since January 2019.  The reality of the matter is that NUGT may be the best confirmation tool/symbol we have right now for timing the end of our Momentum Base in Gold.  When NUGT rotates higher and forms the base, it will very likely mark the end of weaker prices for the entire precious metals sector and the beginning of the upside price rally we have been predicting.

As our research team likes to state – this is “do or die” time with regards to our predictions from many months ago.  We’ve stuck by them for months, telling anyone who would listen this setup would be the last time you see sub-$1300 levels in Gold for many months – possibly years.  If our analysis is correct, we suggest you pay attention to these symbols and lower Gold price levels right now.  Once this move begins to rally, it could take the markets by surprise.

Our expectations are that by mid-May, or so, we should already be in an upside price swing that should be targeting the $1450 to $1550 level.  This means we have about 7 to 15 trading days until we start to see some real upside price move in precious metals.

We should remind you that gold needs to find a bottom this week and price could become choppy and volatile.

Get ready and follow our research.  How many other research firms do you know that are capable of calling the markets 6+ months in advance with this type of accuracy?

Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades for your future.

Chris Vermeulen

Prepare For Unknown Price Action As New Highs Are Reached

The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all-time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks.  The NQ is very close to these new high levels already.  Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.

This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows.  It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least.  We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally.  It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big.  We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately.  Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months.  We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research.  We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.

Now, our modeling tools are suggesting we could be setting up for a pretty big increase in volatility over the next 2~3 months with the potential for bigger price rotation into May/June 2019.  As we are reading our modeling system results, the key elements are that price will achieve new all-time highs, the price will increase in volatility and Gold should begin an upside price move over the next 2~5+ weeks.  The move in Gold suggests one of two things may happen, or both.  The US Dollar may weaken or the US stock market may correct a bit based on some economic event or outside foreign economic event.

Either way, the move in Gold suggests that increased volatility is almost a sure thing over the next 60 to 90 days.  The only reason Gold would rise is if there is some increased fear factor throughout the planet in regards to the protection of assets and fear of some unknown event.  Therefore, if our analysis is correct and Gold does rise as we have indicated, then something is about to create a big increase in volatility.

The key to all of this is that the ES and NQ will move into NEW HIGH territory before this volatility increase begins to become apparent.

This ES Weekly chart shows just how close the ES (S&P500 Futures) are too new all-time highs.  The ES needs to climb another 41 points (+1.41%) before it touches the previous all-time high levels.  That is really only one of two good upside days.  Once it breaks the 2947 level, then the 3000 psychological level becomes a very real target.

 

This NQ Weekly chart shows that the NQ is really just inches away from breaking to new all-time highs.  The NQ only needs to rally 24.50 points (+0.31%) before the 7731 level is breached.  We believe this move will happen very early this week and we could see the NQ push all the way above the 8000 level in short order.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting 9130 and 9625 levels may become the ultimate highs – but it is still very early to tell at this stage of our research.

 

Back in July and August 2018, we started warning that the end of 2018 and all of 2019 were going to be very good years for skilled traders.  We’ve seen a nearly 3800+ point price swing in the NQ and a +1200 point price swing in the ES.  Let’s face it, folks, these are very big moves and if you had been capable of trading these moves efficiently, this is the type of price rotation that makes millionaires out of average traders.

Get ready, because the rest of 2019 and almost all of 2020 are going to be just as exciting to trade so be sure to get our trade signals.

We’ll see you on the other side of “new all-time highs” for the US Stock market here soon.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Precious Metals Give Traders Another Opportunity

We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019.  Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.

Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019.  You can read our updated post here.

This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019.  Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.

We’ll start by highlighting the Gold to Silver price ratio.  When this ration moves well above 80, it is generally considered a long term buy trigger.  The reason for this is that this ratio attempt to reflect the price of Silver to the price of Gold.  When this level reaches above 80, it traditionally reflects an extremely cheap price ratio for both Gold and Silver and usually prompts a big price advance in the near future.

 

Taking a look at historical price moves for both Gold and Silver, we fall back to the big upward price advance that began after the 2009 market crash.  One thing that all traders and investors must understand is that, currently, Silver presents an incredible opportunity for bigger returns than Gold.  Yes, Gold will likely rally higher and provide an incredible opportunity for upside gains.  Yet, historically, Silver begins to move a bit later than Gold does and the upside potential of Silver tends to be 40~70% greater than the upside potential for Gold.

Take a look at this comparison chart, below, of the 2009 to 2011 price move.  Gold shot up nearly 100% – as shown on the chart.  Silver shot up over 150% when the breakout move happened a bit after the Gold move started.  We expect the same type of price advance pattern in the near future.  We expect Gold to begin the move higher and Silver to lag behind this upside move a bit – possibly for a few months.  Eventually, Silver will break to new multi-year highs and could rally 130% to 220% above current levels – possibly higher.

 

Over the next few months, we believe increased volatility in the US stock market may drive prices a bit lower as price rotates near all-time highs.  We believe this rotation, coupled with foreign market concerns (think Brexit, Europe, China, South America) as well as the US Election cycle may cause the markets to enter a period of stagnation and sideways trading.  These impulses may become a catalyst for precious metals to break recent highs and begin an upward price advance as a general increase in FEAR settles into the global markets.

We do believe Gold and Silver will likely move a bit higher over the next 30+ days as the US stock markets continue to push higher towards new all-time highs.  Yet, if the volatility increases, as we expect, and a bigger price rotation takes place (see the chart below), we believe Gold and Silver may experience another price drop to near or below current levels before a massive upside breakout move begins.  Historically, the price of Gold contracts throughout the initial price correction phase of the S&P500 and begins to accelerate upward near the end of a correction phase.  This is because investors and traders are typically shocked to see the correction take place and move into a protective mode as true fear sets in.  When fear subsides, traders move out of precious metals and back into stocks.

 

Our current expectations are that Gold will continue to push lower, below $1275, in an attempt to establish our April 21~24 momentum base.  This base should be at or near ultimate lows for the price of Gold and we would expect a pennant or sideways price channel to complete this bottoming formation.  Ideally, any price move below $1250 is a gift for skilled traders.  We’ll just have to wait to see where this bottom sets up before we know just how low Gold will fall before the next leg higher.

We believe the next upside price leg in Gold will push prices above $1400 initially, likely in May or June 2019.  After that peak is reached, we believe a period of rotation and a potential for a price decline is very real.  We believe this next leg higher will really to levels above $1400, then price will stall and retrace – possibly retracing back to levels below $1300 again.  It would be at that point that skilled traders should consider this the last opportunity for long entries before the bigger move to the upside.

 

Our research into this move, which initiated back in October 2018, has called these rotations almost perfectly.  If our newest research is correct, you will have at least two opportunities to enter fantastic long trades in Gold and Silver, one setup hitting between April 21 and April 28 and another setup after the initial upside price rally retraces (likely in June or July 2019).  After that last retracement, we believe the bigger upside rally will begin and both Gold and Silver will initiate a rally that could be an opportunity of a lifetime for skilled traders.

Follow our research by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond.

Chris Vermeulen

Silver to $25 in 2019 Upon Breakout

This week I had a great conversation with Matt from Silver Fortune and we talked about silver and gold in

terms of accumulating physical metals and also trading paper metals for both long and short-term gains.

We also covered where the markets are within their overall cycles for long-term expectations.

GET CHRIS’ DAILY ANALYSIS & TRADE ALERTS – CLICK HERE

US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility

The US stock markets took a nosedive early in the regular trading session after the QQQ briefly advanced to new All-Time Highs this morning.  With the QQQ and other symbols nearing fresh new highs, traders should expect volatility to increase as trading systems and traders to look for any signs of a top to set up.  As we start to cross into “new high territory”, some fear starts to come back into the markets and volatility is sure to increase.

The Russell 2000 took a pretty big hit today as you can see from the chart below.  This move lower is still well within our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system’s bullish parameters and we’ve highlighted a “Support Zone” for our followers to understand where real price support is located.  Any downside move below $152 would cause us to reconsider our bullish trend position, but right now this is nothing more than price rotation.  Wait it out and look for opportunities when it bottoms.

 

The YM (Dow Futures) Daily chart, below, highlights just how fractured the US stock market really is today.  While the Russell 2000 is rotating lower quite hard, the DOW futures are relatively FLAT and still trading near the recent highs.  This fracturing of the major indexes suggests money may be moving away from sectors/symbols that traders may interpret as risky at the moment – and into symbols that are more stable.  For example, we might find that Financials and the Russell 2000 symbols may present a relatively high level of fear that a downside rotation in these sectors may be bigger and more dramatic than in the NQ, ES or YM.

Still, our advice is to watch this move and wait it out a bit.  Our “Support Zone” for the YM is clearly highlighted with the Green Box on the chart.

 

Lastly, we want to highlight the Transportation Index for all of our followers to understand what is going on behind the scenes today.  The Transportation Index is a fairly strong measure of future economic activity and output.  It typically leads the US stock market by at least 20~30 days.  The price advance, today, in the Transports would indicate that many traders believe the US economy is still improving and will still continue to perform well.  If the Transports break to new highs, then we should see more continued upside price levels in many of the US stock market sectors.

 

Again, the markets are a bit fractured today with price action.  And that leads us to believe we could see a spike in the VIX and volatility over the next few days/weeks while this rotation plays out.  Eventually, we believe a continued upside price leg will resume and we want to urge traders to play it safe for right now.  Follow our “Support Zones” as a key indicator for when the price has fallen into a potentially risky level – below support.  If this happens, then we would begin to become concerned that price may be initiating a bigger move to the downside.

Get my daily analysis and swing trade alerts at my Wealth Trading Newsletter and become a technical trader today!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

How To Play This Selloff In Gold And Gold Stocks

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders has been relatively bearish on gold over the past couple months. Now that we have this down move in gold and gold stocks he weighs in on how low the metal could go and how long the downtrend could last.

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Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Topping Pattern

A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US & Global markets.  Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis?  Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.

Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside price advance can take place.  The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows.  Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making.  If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.

Let’s start off by taking a look at these Monthly charts…

This first Monthly Bank Of America chart is best at showing the price channel (in YELLOW) as well as a key Fibonacci price level (highlighted by the MAGENTA line).  We’ve also highlighted a price zone with a green shaded box that we believe is key support/resistance for the current price trend.

As you can see from this chart, since early February 2018, the overall trend has shifted into a sideways bearish trend.  The price recovery from December 2018 was impressive, yes, but it is still rotating within this sideways/bearish price channel.  Our belief is that this YELLOW upper price channel level MUST be broken in order for the price to continue higher at this point.  Any failure to accomplish this will result in a price reversal that could precipitate a 30% price decline in the value of BAC.  In other words, “it is do-or-die time – again”.

 

This Monthly JPM chart shows a similar pattern, yet the price channel is a bit more narrow visually.  We have almost the same setup in JPM as we do in BAC.  The same channels, the same type of Fibonacci price support level, the same type of sideways price support zone (the shaded box) and the same overall setup.  As traders, we have to watch for these types of setup and be aware of the risks that could unfold with a collapse of the financial sector over the next few weeks.

We believe the next few weeks could be critical for the financial sector and for the overall markets.  If weakness hits the financial sector as global growth continues to stagnate we could enter a period where the global perception of the future 12~24 months may change.  Right now, perception has been relatively optimistic in the global stock markets.  Most traders have been optimistic that the markets will recover and a US/China trade deal will get settled.  The biggest concern has been the EU and the growth of the European countries.

What if that suddenly changed?

 

We are not saying it will or that we know anything special about this setup.  We are just suggesting that the Monthly charts, above, are suggesting that price will either break above this upper price channel or fail to break this level and move lower.  We are suggesting that, as skilled traders, we need to be acutely aware of the risks within the financial sector right now and prepare for either outcome.

This last chart, a Weekly FAS chart, shows a more detailed view of this same price rotation and sideways expanding wedge/channel formation.  Pay very close attention to the shaded support channel shown with the GREEN BOX on this chart.  Any price rotation within this level should be considered “within a support channel” and not a real risk initially.  We want to see price break above the upper price channel fairly quickly, within the next 2 to 5+ weeks, and we can to see it establish a new high (above $78 on this chart) to confirm a new bullish price trend.  Once this happens, we’ll be watching for further price rotation and setups.  If it fails to happen, then the RED DOWN ARROW is the most likely outcome given the current price setup.

 

Any downside price move in the Financial sector would have to be associated with some decreased future expectations by investors.  Thus, our bigger concern is that something is lurking just below the surface right now that could pull the floor out from under this sector.  Is it a surprise Fed rate increase?  Is it some news from the EU?  Is it a sudden increase in credit defaults?  What is the “other shoe” – so to say. You can also check interesting credit repair tips at Credit Solvers.

Be prepared.  If all goes well, then we’ll know within a few more weeks if the upside price rally will continue or if we need to start digging for clues as to why the support for the financial sector is eroding.  This really is a “do or die” setup in the financial sector and we urge all traders to pay very close attention to this sector going forward.  We believe it will be the leading sector for any major price weakness across the global markets.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond?  Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future.  Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and incredible research for all our members and followers.

Chris Vermeulen

Oil May Be Setup For A Move Back $50

US Gasoline prices have shot up 15% to 30% or more over the past 4 weeks as the Summer Blend hits the markets and consumers continue to stay shocked at the increase.  In California, prices shot up from near $3 per gallon to over $4 a gallon over a 7-day span.  Every year, when the Summer Blend of Gasoline hits the markets, we expect a price increase that is associated with this change.  But this year, the price increase has really shocked consumers to the point that they are altering their travel plans and cutting extra spending in an attempt to deal with the new gasoline prices.

This data graph from the US Energy Information Administration shows just how dramatic the price increase has been over the past 3+ weeks.

(Source: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epm0_pte_dpgal_w.htm)

Anyone with any common sense about how consumers react to these types of price increases will understand that consumers will react to these price increases by cutting other expenses and travel from their future in order to compensate for the higher gas prices.  We’ve seen it happen many times in the past.  This means that retail shopping, entertainment, dining, and other non-essential purchases will be curtailed as consumers deal with the extra $100 to $250+ each month in gasoline costs.  Small business and other service industries that rely on driving or on-site work will also see their bottom line profits drop as a result of these higher prices.  The extra costs for these companies could be counted in the thousands each month.

We believe the reaction to these higher gasoline prices will result in decreasing demand by consumers as they cut back on certain expenses and attempt to limit travel as needed to balance their essentials and non-essential purchases.  We believe this decrease in overall purchases will likely reflect in a decrease in travel and hospitality, retail, entertainment, and restaurant purchases.  It is very likely that this decrease will be felt across the economy fairly quickly as gasoline prices attempt to stabilize near new levels.

Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd, believe Oil will come under pricing pressure over the next few weeks as consumers react to the higher gasoline prices.  The recent price stall near $65 aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level near $63.98 and we believe any further upside in Oil may be limited.  Our researchers believe a downside price retracement will begin to unfold where Oil prices will fall to below $55 ppb initially and potentially target sub $50 levels eventually.

The recent rally in oil prices from last 2018 was in-line with expectations that the US and global markets would recover after the deep price correction in Q4 2018.  As the US stock market continues to rally towards new highs, we suggest watching Crude Oil, Transports and overall consumer activity to determine is a mild consumer recession sets up over the next few weeks.  Our research suggests that Q2 is typically fairly strong for Transports and Oil.  Q3, or the Summer season, is typically relatively weak.  This fall into the old trader saying “Sell in May and go away”.  We believe the rotation lower in Oil and consumer activity related to the higher oil prices may hit the markets a bit earlier this year and set up some incredible trading opportunities.

If our research is correct and Oil prices top over the next few weeks, this means that OILD and USOD are likely to be very strong buying opportunities near historical lows.  Let’s take a look at these setups and plan out the best case scenario.

USOD, the US 3x Short Oil Fund, is set up with current price levels very close to historical price lows.  We can see how any price move below $4 would set up an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders to setup swing trade long positions going into the summer months.  The closer we get to mid-May, the more likely the historical price weakness will setup to drive these Oil ETFs higher by at least 15% to 25%.  Our believe that consumers will react to the higher gasoline prices by cutting their demand for extra travel and other expenses help to support our belief that oil prices may decline 12% to 24% over the next 30 to 60 days.

OILD, the Proshares UltraPro Short 3x ETF, is setting up very near to historical price lows slightly below $16.  We believe any price decline near these lower levels would create an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders to setup long trades in OILD as we expect the Summer season oil price decline to push these ETFs at least 15~25% higher.

The key to understanding the potential for this trade is to watch for price weakness in the general markets and in select consumer sectors (travel, entertainment, retail, restaurants, and others).  If we see that consumers are pulling back on certain expenses, then we can assume they are also pulling back on travel, gas purchases, and Summer vacations.  This will likely cause demand issues in Oil to prompt a price decline.  We don’t expect a dramatic price decline at this point, but we do expect a 12% to 24% price drop as any protection move by consumers will have far-reaching results on the economic numbers and future expectations.

Take a minute to find out why www.TheTechnicalTraders.com is quickly becoming one of the best research and trading services you can find anywhere on the planet and last week we took another 4.5% profit on another winning trade.  We are about to launch a new technology product to assist our members and we continue to deliver incredible research posts, like this one, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems and adaptive learning solutions.  If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond, then please take a minute to see how we can help you.  Once this move begins in Gold and Silver, there will be dozens of incredible opportunities for skilled investors – don’t miss out of them.  Join www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen