Precious Metals traders have been hanging on every turn in the markets over the past 2+ years. The upside price move in early 2016 setup a very strong expectation that further upside price moves were about to result in an upside price explosion in metals. Remember, 2016 was a very big US Presidential election year. 2020, being the next big US Presidential election year, is only about 7 months away and the rancor has already started in the news cycles.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has set up an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months. Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22. We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.
Initially, this upside move must break the $16.30 level, which represents immediate resistance. Then, it must push above the $18.66 level, which represents secondary resistance. Once Silver passes the $18.66 level, the last leg higher will attempt to break the $21.22 level and push up into new recent highs (higher than the 2016 highs).
We believe the current US Presidential election cycle will be full of twists and turns – most of which will be very public and explosive. We believe this election cycle will create a certain level of fear in the markets that are above and beyond what we have seen over the past 15+ months. In a method that is very similar to what happened in 2016, the public will become entrenched in the election cycle process and the global economy may suffer slightly as the political shenanigans continue to play out on our TVs, newspapers and web browsers.
The October/December 2018 lows were, most likely, the lowest price levels we will see going forward. Additionally, the current price levels, below $15 per ounce, may be the last time we’ll have the opportunity to see prices this low in a number of years. Our price modeling is suggesting that Silver and Gold will begin a Momentum Base Rally from these lows that may last many years.
If you want to know when we get long Silver next be sure to join our Wealth Trading Newsletter and get our trading signals. In fact, we are giving away and shipping FREE Silver rounds for select membership levels for the next few days.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart13.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-06 11:12:272019-05-06 11:12:27Silver Sets Up A Long-Term Wave B Bottom
Since 2001 I have been refining my index trading skills and strategies in the hope that one day I would provide a steady stream of trades and income and possibly even be able to automate the trading for me.
Now, 18 years later I have made most of these dreams/goals come true with a robust trading system that makes trading momentum drops and pops, swing trading, and trend following really simple. While it’s not 100% complete, and likely never will be as I’m always working on adapting things work with the everchanging markets, it is something I’m really proud of and excited to share with fellow traders. Over the next month or so I will be pushing to get this new application running for members to watch and receive the trade alerts.
Take a look at this year’s chart of the system which really is incredible, but the rally the market is experiencing is also not the norm in terms of price action.
The next chart shows the most recent trade taken this Thursday and the first momentum trade target was hit in less than 24 hours for a quick 2.5% profit on the SP500.
To make things even more exciting this strategy works well with high momentum stocks and the most recent trade we took on CPRX we locked in 10% from our entry price as shown below.
I am about to launch a new technology product to assist our members like this one explained above, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems complete with all the trade signals (entry, stops, targets). This added analysis and trade signals are bonus value added for our loyal followers.
If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond, then Join www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.
EXTRA UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY
First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”
So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.
Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart9.png506772adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-06 10:43:572019-05-06 10:43:57Index Trading Signals for Momentum, Swing, and Trend Following
First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”
So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.
Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart9.jpg9451442adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-02 10:40:032019-05-02 10:40:03Interest Rates, US Dollar, Canadian Dollar
The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting. The markets should take this as a sign of relief. Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.
The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment. A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies. Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.
The $INDU rotated much lower today, ending the day almost exactly at a key support channel level (the YELLOW line). Further price weakness could push the $INDU below $26,000 fairly easily if the current high price level is fragile and weak. Price rotation is one of the most basic aspects of all price activity. The price must rotate in order to establish new price highs or lows. As volatility decreased over the past 30+ days, it would not be unexpected to see price retest the $26,000 level, or lower, in an attempt to resume a price trend or re-establish price support before attempting another move higher.
The move in the NQ today was much broader than the move in the $INDU. The Technology heavy NASDAQ 100 rotated downward, below the historical price support channel, and is currently resting just above the previous all-time price high near $7724. Again, the Fed’s inaction may be interpreted as an expectation of market weakness over the next few months. Thus, traders reacted to this move by interpreting this weakness in the Fed to raise rates by selling.
Overall, leaving rates unchanged may be very healthy for the US and global economies. The US Dollar continues to strengthen and this shake-out may be just what is needed before the Summer season for the price to continue trending.
We’ve recently warned that the US major Indexes are nearing our Fibonacci upside price targets and that we believe the upside price move may continue for another 20+ days still. This current rotation may be very short-lived – possibly only 5~10 days of lower/sideways price action before trends resume an upside price bias. Time will tell.
Overall, our prediction that a shake-out was about to happen appears to be unfolding just days after we made the claim. Our longer-term analysis is still the same – continued upside price bias as earnings and fundamentals drive prices closer to our Fibonacci price targets before any bigger price reversal may set up sometime in July/Aug 2019.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY
First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!”
So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals.
Second, my birthday is this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter for the first 25 subscribers. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to take a look at the overall makeup of money in the markets. With a couple of the major averages hitting all-time highs recently the run looks to be getting a little tired. Chris thinks we could see a general rotation of money into the risk-off sectors for investors looking for depressed areas. Pay close attention to the time frame Chris outlines though.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Chris-and-Other-Guy.png220266adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-01 11:00:322019-05-01 11:02:26WATCH FOR A ROTATION OF MONEY OUT OF THE RISK ON ASSETS
Now that most of the US Major Indexes have breached new all-time price highs, which we called over 5+ months ago, and many traders are starting to become concerned about how and where the markets may find resistance or begin to top, we are going to try to paint a very clear picture of the upside potential for the markets and why we believe volatility and price rotation may become a very big concern over the next few months. Our objective is to try to help you stay informed of pending market rotation and to alert you that we may be nearing a period within the US markets where increased volatility is very likely.
Longer term, many years into the future, our predictive modeling systems are suggesting this upside price swing is far from over. Our models suggest that price rotation will become a major factor over the next 12 to 15+ months – headed into the US Presidential election cycle of November 2020. Our models are suggesting that the second half of this year could present an incredible opportunity for skilled investors as price volatility/rotation provide bigger price swings. Additionally, our models suggest that early 2020 will provide even more opportunity for skilled traders who are able to understand the true price structure of the markets. Get ready, thing are about to get really interesting and if you are not following our research or a member of our services, you might want to think about joining soon.
We are focusing this research post on the NQ, ES and YM futures charts (Daily). We will include a longer-term YM chart near the end to highlight longer-term expectations. Let’s start with the NQ Daily chart.
The NQ Daily chart, below, highlights our ongoing research, shows the 2018 deep price rotational low and the incredible rally to new all-time highs recently. The most important aspect of this chart is the “Upside Target Zone” near the $8040 level and the fact that any rally to near these levels would represent an extended upside price rally near the upper range of the YELLOW price channel lines. We believe any immediate price rotation may end near the $7500 level (between the two Fibonacci Target levels near $7400 & $7600) and could represent a pretty big increase in price volatility.
This ES Daily chart highlights the different in capabilities between the NQ and the ES. While the NQ is already pushing into fairly stronger new price highs, the ES is struggling to get above the Sept/Oct 2018 highs and this is because very strong resistance is found between $2,872 and $2,928. It is very likely that the price volatility will increase near these highs as price becomes more active in an attempt to break through this resistance. It is also very likely that a downside price rotation may happen where price attempts to retest the $2,835 level (or lower) before finally pushing into a bigger upside price trend. The Upside Target Zone highs are just below $3,000. Therefore, we believe any move above $2,960 could represent an exhaustion top type of price formation.
This YM chart is set up very similarly to the ES chart. Historical price highs are acting as a very strong price ceiling. While the NQ is already pushing into fairly stronger new price highs, the YM continues to struggle to get above the Sept/Oct 2018 highs and this is because very strong resistance is found between 25,750 and 27,000. Please take notice of the very narrow resistance channel (BOX) on this chart that highlights where we believe true price support/resistance is located. We believe it is likely that a downside price rotation may happen where price attempts to retest the $26,000 level (or lower) before finally pushing into a bigger upside price trend.
As you can tell from our recent posts and this research, we believe price volatility is about to skyrocket higher as price rotates downward. Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that we are nearing the end of this current upside move where a downward price move will establish a new price base and allow price to, eventually, push much higher – well above current all-time high levels.
We’ve issued research posts regarding Presidential election cycles and how, generally, stock market prices decline 6 to 24 months before any US Presidential election. We believe this pattern will continue this year and we are warning our followers to be prepared at this stage of the game. No, it will not be a massive market crash like 2008-09. It will be a downside price rotation that will present incredible opportunities for skilled traders. If you want more of our specialized insight and analysis, then please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.comto learn how we help our members find success.
Lastly, we’ve included this Weekly YM chart to show you just how volatile the markets are right now. Pay very close attention to the Fibonacci Target Levels that are being drawn on this chart. The downside target levels range from $16,000 to $21,060. The upside target levels range from $30,000 to $32,435. Top to bottom, The Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a total volatility range of over $16,000 for the YM Weekly chart and this usually suggests we are about to enter a period of bigger price rotation and much higher price volatility.
Right now, we suggest that you review some of our most recent posts to see how we’ve been calling these market moves, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/. It is important for all of our followers to understand the risks of being complacent right now. The markets are about to enter a period of about 24+ months where incredible opportunities will become evident for skilled traders. If you know what is going to happen, you can find opportunities everywhere. If not, you are going to be on the wrong side of some very big moves.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/chart1.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-01 10:12:462019-05-01 10:12:46How Close Are The Markets From Topping?
Our proprietary price cycle tool is showing us that the Daily Gold cycles may dive a bit lower, possibly into the $1250 to $1265 level, over the next 3~7+ days before reaching an ultimate low. We’ve been covering the precious metals markets like hawks because of our proprietary price modeling tools that suggested the April 21~24 dates as an ultimate low/momentum base pattern. This new cycle formation highlights the potential that a deeper price low in Gold may set up over the next 5 to 7 days and it may become an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders.
Taking a look at this cycle chart, we can see the deep price low that may target the $1270 levels or levels just below the $1270 price area. It appears that this new price low may form somewhere near the end of this week, May 3rd, or early next week, May 6th or 7th. Please pay attention to this potential price move as this may be the last low price reversal before a very strong upside price move.
You may remember our analysis from January 2019 regarding the ADL price predictions for Gold (the chart is below). Pay very close attention to the “April/May 2019” dates as we are targeting that low price level right now and the upside price potential showing predicted price levels well above $1400.
Skilled traders need to try to understand a move like this in Gold will likely be predicated on some external global news events that create a level of fear in the markets. We don’t know what they may be at the moment, but our suspicions are that they are going to be related to the EU and/or China (or both).
This is it. This should be the last low price rotation (if it happens) before Gold begins to skyrocket higher. Pay attention and remember we were very early in making this call – so it will be an incredible run if it happens as we predicted 5 months ago.
With a total of 55 years of technical analysis and trading between Brad Matheny, and myself Chris Vermeulen, our research and trading signals makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Coursesare designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart36.png585700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-30 10:30:362019-04-30 10:30:36Gold May Give Us One More Chance With New Lows
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart36.jpg9291553adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-29 11:21:592019-04-29 11:21:59LONG Top 3 Stocks to Rally in the 21 Days PYX, ARRY, CY
Now that the April 21 ~ 24 Gold “momentum base” prediction that we’ve been discussing for the past 4+ months has past and appears to be accurate, we think it is time to start warning of increased market volatility and the potential for a market “shake-out” to happen. Last week was a key component to our future price predictions and market projections. We believed our proprietary price modeling systems were accurate and had latched onto a key component of the markets – the “momentum base” call in Gold for April 21 ~ 24 of this year. Remember, this original research post was made in September 2018 – over 7 months ago. We kept refining our research over the past 4+ months and warned, repeatedly, that this base in Gold would likely prompt a market shake-out over the next 30~60+ days.
The moves in the major markets, over the past few weeks, have been very telling. With the SPY and NASDAQ pushing to new all-time highs, strong earnings (overall) and the global markets setting up for another shoe to drop (at some point in the future), it leaves many questions for skilled traders. What’s going to happen next and what should we expect from price?
Well, we have a few simple answers for you regarding the next few weeks expectations as well as some bigger future predictions.
First, Crude Oil rotated dramatically lower on Friday. This was a big downward price rotation considering the Trump/Iran deal stance early on in the week. A disruption in the supply of Oil is often a driver of bigger market swings. I learned a long time ago to watch Gold and Oil all the time. These are often the leading commodities that reflect fear/greed in the markets and potential global unrest.
With Crude Oil slipping below a key Fibonacci trigger level (at $65.25) and another key Fibonacci trigger level sitting at $61.60, it seems rather obvious that Oil may slip back below $60 on deeper price rotation over the next few weeks which could lead to a bigger “shake-out” in the markets. We recently posted an article about how Oil could rotate lower and retest the sub $55 level (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/oil-may-be-setup-for-a-move-back-50/ ). At this point, a breakdown of oil prices below the $61.60 level would indicate the very strong potential for further downside price.
Precious metals have setup our momentum base/bottom on the dates we predicted over 4+ months ago (April 21 ~24). It is incredible that our ADL price modeling system can be so accurate so far into the future. Our proprietary price modeling systems provide us with an incredible advantage over most other research firms. The ADL and Fibonacci price modeling systems are predicting an upside price advance of at least 12% to 20% over the next few weeks. Read one of our original research posts here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/
The upside price potential in precious metals should not be overlooked. Additionally, the implication that some other global market malaise could unfold between now and the end of 2019 to drive precious metals prices even higher is fairly strong. We’ve been warning that Europe, China, and even the US markets could come under some pricing pressure or increased volatility as the US markets establish new price highs. It makes sense that traders would be preparing for another deep price rotation as prices near previous peak levels.
The Transportation Index rotated downward near the end of the week quite hard. Thursday, April 25, saw the Transportation Index fall over -250 pts (over -2.25%) after briefly breaching a key resistance level near $11,050. As we’ve been suggesting, the Transportation Index typically leads the markets by a few week/months and we follow it as a means of understanding future trends, risks and price rotations. Right now, the Transportation Index is suggesting increase price rotation and price volatility is likely to “shake-out” the markets for a while.
Lastly, the YM (Dow Futures), is setting up in a very narrow price channel below the recent all-time high established in early October 2018 (at $26,966). This decreased price volatility suggests that the US major indexes are setting up for a price breakout move. Congesting price channels suggest that price is stuck within a defined price range/channel and the ultimate breakout move will likely be a big breakout move to one side or the other. We have our suspicion as to which direction the move will likely be and we’ll share it with you now. Our longer-term analysis suggests that price will continue to push higher while attempting new all-time price highs. Our expectations that price volatility will increase throughout the rest of 2019 suggest we could see some very big price swings over the next 7+ months. But for right now, we believe this YM price channel will result in a brief upside price breakout that will push the YM price to new all-time highs (briefly) before retracing to form another extended sideways price channel near $27,000. Stocks, in general, are doing well as all our positions rallied last week with one stock jumping over 11% in one session.
Below, we have included a Daily YM chart that highlights this current price channel in MAGENTA. Pay very close attention to this channel as we near the eventual price breakout that will end this congestion. Weakness may prompt a “false breakout” to the downside, suckering in shorts, before a continued upside rally pushes prices over the $27,000 market, then stalling to set up the next Pennant/Flag formation. We’ve seen this type of price action many times in the past. Any downside “false breakdown” would prompt a big increase in volatility. This aligns with our broader market analysis. The push to the upside to establishing new all-time highs also aligns with our broader market analysis. Thus, we expect a pretty big series of price events to unfold over the next 2~5+ weeks.
If you like our research and want to learn how we can help you find and execute great trades, please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com. Get ready for the next big moves and learn how our team of skilled researchers and traders can help you stay ahead of these market moves.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart29.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-29 09:50:002019-04-29 09:50:00Markets Are Setting Up A Shake-Out – Be Prepared
As we continue to scan the charts for setups and trigger to alert our followers, we’ve come across a setup that may be more ominous than what it appears. Recently we’ve posted articles about how the SPY and the NQ have pushed into new all-time high price territory and how Gold is setting up for a momentum base that should launch precious metals to near highs. We’ve also discussed how we believe the current upside price bias in the US stock markets should last another 10~35+ days before new price weakness sets up – possibly pushing prices lower in late May or early June 2019.
Our research team has been scanning the charts looking for anything that could give us an edge to the potential setup for this price weakness in the future. We believe the Transportation Index and the Financials could be keys to understanding how far the upside rally can continue and when a price peak may begin to warn of a potential price top or rollover.
An Island Top is a pattern that sets up with an upside price gap followed by sideways price action above that gap. In theory, this type of setup should promote the gap to be filled with downside price action before any further upside price move can continue. Although, gaps to the upside are fairly common in strong uptrends. Given the strength of the earnings data released early this week and the expectations that we have for some continued upside price bias over the next 10~35+ days, we are watching these Island Top formation in the Financials for any signs of weakness to alert our followers.
This Daily FAS chart highlights the GAP as well as the Resistance levels that are currently acting as a ceiling. A breakout above the resistance level would indicate that we have more room to run higher. Any failed breakout to the upside, where price briefly rallies above the resistance level, then falls back below it, would be a pretty strong indication of a rotational peak. The Financials could fall 10% from current levels and still be within the range of the March/April lows. It would take a much bigger move to qualify as a breakdown bearish trend.
This Daily XLF chart highlights a similar pattern to the FAS chart. The key element of the XLF chart is that the Resistance level provides more key fundamental price peaks than the FAS chart. On this XLF chart, we can see that the current Resistance level aligns perfectly with the Nov/Dec 2018 highs. We can also see a short GREEN Fibonacci trigger level line in early March 2019 above the Resistance level. That Fibonacci trigger level is still valid and any move above that level would constitute a new bullish price trend trigger.
Any failure to break the Resistance level would qualify as a price rotation to fill the GAP and potentially set up a move back to near $25 looking to find new support. Overall, the Financials are poised for a move – up or down. Our research suggests the US stock market is not done rising, thus we are concerned that certain sectors may begin to show signs of weakness as the broader market continues to rise.
Our research team believes a critical peak formation is likely near the end of May or in early June 2019. It is because of this belief that we are warning traders to play the next 15~25+ days very cautiously. Watch the Financials, the Transportation Index, the US Dollar, and Precious Metals. We believe any early signs of weakness will be found within these symbols.
With a total of 55 years of technical analysis and trading between Brad Matheny, and myself Chris Vermeulen, our research and trading signals makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter,Technical Trading Mastery book, and Trading Coursesare designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/chart26.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-04-25 23:40:242019-04-25 23:40:24Financials Setting Up An Island Top Formation
