The US Memorial Day weekend is set up to become a very interesting time for investors. The EU voting is complete and the change in EU leadership may move the markets a bit. China appears to be playing a waiting game – attempting to hold the US/Trump at bay until after the 2020 US elections. This week is certain to be very interesting for traders/investors.
The European stocks moved higher in trading on Monday as the relief from the EU election event and support for auto shares pushed the markets higher. The transition in the EU over the next few months will solidify into a political and social agenda. The EU leadership must acknowledge these future objectives of all parties in order to maintain some level of calm. It is evident that many EU nations are relatively satisfied with the current leadership while others are transitioning into more centrist leadership. The next 4+ years will be full of further transition in the EU.
China is another global issue that is relatively unsettled. We’ve been doing some research with regards to China and the potential future political and economic pathways that may become evident in the near-term future. Our biggest concern is that China has been inflating their economic levels for decades and the true scope of the Chinese economy may be much weaker than everyone expects. If our suspicions are correct and China has been inflating economic levels for many years, then the transition to a consumer/services-driven economy may be dramatically over-inflated and the US/China trade issues could be biting much harder than the Chinese want to admit.
The “Sell in May and go away” market saying may become absolute truth in 2019. Our expectations are still suggesting that an attempt at new market highs may take place before August 2019, but the current market rotation (lower) is setting up a very strong potential for further downside price action at the moment. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $7294 level in the NQ is key support. Below this level, the NQ could break much lower and potentially target $6850 or lower.
The YM is setting up a similar price pattern with resistance near 25,840. We believe this resistance will push prices lower as we move further into early June. The potential for some type of surprise economic data or Fed/Global market move after this weekend is somewhat higher than expected. There is a lot of shifting taking place throughout the globe and we believe this turbulence will reflect in the US market soon enough.
As of right now, our expectations are that a brief upside price rally will take place over the next 4~7+ days before a continued downside price trend may become evident. Pay attention to the news cycles for key elements that could drive the US stock market lower. We will continue to update you with regards to our proprietary research and expectations. The next 7+ days will likely be nothing but sideways price rotation within a Pennant/Flag formation.
Read our research to understand how this setup coincides with the GOLD price setup and why it is important to understand why July 2019 is so important. Please take a minute to review these recent research posts that focus more on the US Dollar and Gold, and also the July turning point for US Stocks.
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We continue to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members for 4.4% already, and our VIX ETF trade we closed for a 25% last week.
For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/27.png368700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-27 14:58:242019-05-27 14:58:24US Memorial Day Weekend Market Analysis
After an incredible 7+week rally in Bitcoin, from $3700 to above $8000, the current price action is setting up for what may become an extended Pennant/Flag formation with quite a bit of sideways trading ahead.
Our researchers believe the past 7+ weeks rally in Bitcoin was prompted by a shift away from risk in Asia/China and into more suitable protection assets. Cryptos appear to be the easy choice for many as this rally coincided with the April 3rd through 6th US/China trade talks in Washington, DC (https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3004961/us-says-theres-still-significant-work-be-done-trade-talks). It appears that many investors were preparing for a difficult deadline after the March 1st deadline for a deal was pushed back. These early April trade talks may have been interpreted as a “do or die” effort from both sides. Again, shortly after the May 1st US/China trade talks in Beijing, Bitcoin began another rally from the $5200 level all the way up to the $8000 level.
Our contacts, although we admit they are fairly limited in total quantity, have stated the sentiment from locals in China are very pessimistic on the US and President Trump. A few of our contacts have recently stated they have been laid off or terminated from their jobs and, as we understand, locals have already started to react in a protectionist mode. This happens when economies contract quickly. Consumers attempt to protect their wealth and assets by moving any capital they have into something more efficient than their local markets – thus Cryptos.
This Weekly Bitcoin chart highlights areas that we believe our current support and resistance levels. The $8000~8100 level goes all the way back to the February 2018 low. This is a critical level for trading as it became a massive price support level back in 2018 – and eventually became critical resistance in July 2018. Additional resistance is found near $9900.
This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights what we believe are the current Key Highs and Key Lows that will tell us if the next phase will be a continued rally or a breakdown in price. The Key Low near $7480 must hold for any further upside price advance. If $7480 is broken, we would expect the next Key Low price to be targeted (near $6200). Otherwise, if another rally breaks out and price rallies above the Key High, then we could see an upside target range between $9200 to $9700 very quickly.
You can see from our BLUE CHANNEL levels on the lower indicator that we believe a Pennant/Flag formation may be setting up in Bitcoin right now. This type of price rotation is not uncommon after a big move like we’ve seen already and it could be a fairly wide price rotation as this sideways Pennant/Flag pattern continues. The current range between Key Highs and Key Lows is about $2000 – lots of room for trading/traders.
The key to understanding this move is the protectionist thinking of the people of China. They are very likely attempting to move their capital into something that is not Chinese Yuan based and away from traditional holdings (Gold, Real Estate, Jewelry or other assets). Eventually, we will likely see Gold/Silver follow the rally in Cryptos if fear continues to hit the markets. Cryptos, although, appear to have executed the first leg of the “fear trade” originating from the breakdown in the US/China trade negotiations.
An additional word of warning should be that any resolution to the US/China trade talks over the next 60+ days could remove any long term support for this upside move in Cryptos. Pay attention to the news cycles and what is happening in China, the EU and the rest of the world. As fast as it went up, it could easily break down as news hits.
Lots of great price action unfold to take advantage of. Subscribers just closed out a 24% winner and another 3.46% as the markets prepare for a new move. If you want my trade signals and alerts be sure to check out my Wealth Trading Newsletter.
Chris Vermeulen joined us today. He believes that the stock market is topping out if it hasn’t already. This will lead to increased volatility and a move back to safe haven assets, i.e. gold. He believes that oil will break down briefly into the ’50s and then come roaring back shortly thereafter. The bigger and faster the decline, the fast the bounce back. Interest rates are headed lower.
The incredible strength of the US Dollar over the past 12+ months has put downward pricing pressure on Gold and Silver. I believe this downward pricing pressure could be muting any upside price advanced in Gold and Silver by as much as 20% to 30% or more.
The US Dollar has turned into the global “safe-haven” for international investors and foreign governments. Over the past 6 to 12 months, or more, the US Dollar has been the only fiat currency to see any strength and upward trend. All the other major global currency levels have fallen – some dramatically lower.
The EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, and CHF have all fallen sharply over the past 6 to 12 months as the strength of the US Dollar and US Economy continued to surprise many. We’ve been calling this a “capital shift” that started back in 2015~2016 – when the 2016 US Election cycle began and China began to implement capital controls. At the same time, foreign nations such as Brazil and Venezuela began to shift into an economic abyss while the UK dealt with BREXIT negotiations. All of these external factors created an environment where the US Dollar became a global safe-haven for global investors – all of which were seeking US equities and US Dollars to hedge weakening foreign currencies and weak foreign stock market performance.
I think that the US Dollar strength, in combination with the continued foreign Gold acquisitions has amounted to a resolved “reversion” in Gold prices that could reflect a 10% to 20% price anomaly. In other words, the strength of the US Dollar has muted the advancing price of Gold by our estimates of 2x to 2.5x the strength of the US Dollar. Over the past 12 months, the US Dollar rallied from 89.42 (April 2018) to 97.92 (May 2019: current price). This reflects a 9.60% increase in the value of the US Dollar.
If my research is correct, the price of Gold should have rallied by about 18% to 26% from the April 2018 levels IF the US Dollar had not appreciated in value as it has. Therefore, the true price of Gold should be somewhere near $1600 (18% above April 2018 levels) to $1700 (26% above April 2018 levels) if we attempted to eliminate the “reversion effect” of the US Dollar strength.
We come to this conclusion by statistically analyzing the US Dollar strength after April 2018 and how Gold reacted to this strength – by falling over 12.5% from near $1350 to a level near $1170. That range of time reflected an 8% price advance in the US Dollar. Thus, a ratio of 1.5 to 1 has clearly been established within that move. More recently, from August 2018 till now, the US Dollar has rallied 1.47% while the price of Gold has rallied 8.87%. The current price of Gold is -5.60% below the April 2018 price level.
If we were to assume that the rally in the US Dollar deflated the price appreciation of Gold by nearly equal ratios, then we take the April 2018 price of Gold ($1350) and add the related price variances of Gold over this span (essentially reverting the price of Gold to April 2018 US Dollar levels : $1350 * 1.27) and we end up with $1714.50. This reflects a greater than 30% price anomaly from the current price of Gold.
We need to ask ourselves one simple question, what would it take for Precious Metals and the global stock markets to revert back to these expected price levels? Would it be a move away from the US Dollar? Would it be some shift in foreign currency valuations? Would it be a combination of factors that drive greater fear into the markets and reflect a US Dollar valuation decline? In the second part of this article, I will explore some possibilities and explain why I believe we are just days or weeks away from finding out exactly what will cause this price anomaly to revert along with my proprietary gold price cycle forecast.
I just highlighted the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to other foreign currencies and suggested this US Dollar strength may have created a “price anomaly” setup in Precious Metals – specifically Gold. I believe a very unique setup is happening in the global markets right now and that the price of Gold is substantially undervalued compared to risks that are present throughout the global economies. I believe the strength of the US Dollar has muted the upside potential of Gold by at least 20% to 30% over the past 12+ months and I believe a shift is taking place where Gold is starting to break these pricing constraints.
If the analysis is correct, I believe traders only have about 3~6+ weeks before we’ll find out why and what will cause this price anomaly to revert back to what I believe is “price normalcy”. The strength of the US Dollar, as well as the continued global “capital shift” where foreign investors are piling into the US stock market and US Dollar related investments, have continued to put incredible pricing pressures on Precious Metals. We believe this “shift” may be about to revert back to some levels of normalcy in term of Precious Metals pricing.
I believe a major Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in Gold where this price anomaly event will be resolved. This type of price anomaly reset, or reversion will prompt a massive upside price advance in Gold and Silver that will attempt to restore proper pricing levels to the Precious Metals commodities. I believe we are just weeks away from the completion of this Pennant/Flag apex/breakout event and believe the upside price targets identified align with a series of key events that are likely to unfold over the Summer months of 2019. Take a few minutes to read the recent three-part research post regarding these events and how they relate to the global stock/commodity markets here.
Our predictive modeling systems have been warning that a price advance in Gold and Silver will take place between April/May of 2019 and Aug/Sept or 2019. We are calling this the “initial upside price leg” because we believe this upside price move will be just the beginning of a much larger move higher for Precious Metals. We’ve highlighted some of the biggest concerns we currently have related to the global stock market price appreciation levels and the concerns related to the US Presidential Election cycle in precious articles – Please read them here :
We believe it is imperative to alert all investors/traders of this event and to attempt to allow all investors/traders to plan for what may become one of the biggest global stock market swings in recent history as well as one of the biggest moves in Precious Metals in history.
My proprietary cycle analysis and trade signals are suggesting a mild price recovery in Gold will prompt moderate upside pricing pressure over the next 10~20+ days. This aligns perfectly with our Pennant/Flag formation, see the previous chart. It would be expected that Gold prices would form a moderate price support level near $1270 before moving back up to the upper Pennant price channel, near $1295. Then, price should set up the “Apex Breakout” move – which will likely be a “washout-low” price rotation (somewhere near or below $1270) with a very quick reversal to the upside – breaking $1330 and rallying much higher. This type of rotation is very common and often prompts traders to jump into short positions on the “washout-low” formation before getting clobbered on the reversal/rally. Be prepared.
Lastly, we want to alert everyone to a chart we’ve been following that could become a determining factor for the future of the global stock market levels, the US Dollar and Precious Metals. The one thing we don’t want to see is a massive decline in yield in the 2 Year Treasuries. This would indicate failed growth expectations throughout the globe and, in particular, reflect concerns that the US markets could contract/decline in-line with further global market devaluations.
We’ve already been trying to warn investors that the US Presidential Election cycle will likely create a stalling price pattern in the US stock market. We’ve been warning, for the past 18 months, that Gold is setting up a massive bottom/breakout formation. We’ve recently highlighted the global concerns (Europe, China, US, and others) that may combine to create something like a “perfect storm” for currencies and the global equities markets. If that translates into “yield weakness” in the US Treasuries, think about how that would translate into the Precious Metals “reversion” that we are suggesting is only a few weeks away?
Chart courtesy of www.crescat.net
We strongly urge investors to pay very close attention to our research and prepare for this event. Yes, the Capital Shift event is still taking place and as long as nothing disrupts this shift, capital will continue to flow into the US Dollar and US Equities. Our concern is that the charts are telling us we are very near to the end of this event cycle and we are alerting all of our followers so they can prepare for this move. It may start out mildly – it may not. We do know that our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that July/August 2019 are on our radar for a major price rotation/event.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY
First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.
So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.
Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
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I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
Our continued efforts to alert and assist fellow traders to the incredible setups that are currently happening throughout the globe with regards to increased global economic tensions are starting to take root. We are hearing from our readers and follower and we love the comments we are receiving. Near April/May 2018, we started predicting that the end of 2018 and almost all of 2019/2020 were going to include incredible opportunities for skilled traders. We made these predictions at about the same time that we issued a series of incredible calls regarding the future market moves in 2018 & 2019.
Our most recent multiple-part research post regarding the current global economic environment and how EU elections, US/China trade issues and a very contentious US Presidential Election cycle are poised to continue driving increased price volatility just hit the digital medium last weekend (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/us-vs-global-sector-rotation-what-next-part-ii/ ). We urge all of our followers to read this detailed article about how a series of global events are stacking up to create incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Today, we are focusing on Crude Oil because our proprietary adaptive learning Fibonacci modeling system is suggesting a surge of massive volatility is very likely to happen over the next few months in Crude Oil and we believe the DOWNSIDE price risk is the most likely outcome at this point. Fibonacci price theory dictates that price must ALWAYS attempt to seek out new price highs or new price lows – ALWAYS. We interpret this price requirement as the following:
“Tracking major price peaks and valleys, one can determine if the price is currently achieving new higher high price levels or lower low price levels (thus continuing the price trend) or failing to reach these new higher high or lower low levels. Any failure to reach new higher highs or lower lows is a warning that price may be attempting to continue a previous price trend or reversing.”
This Weekly chart of Crude Oil clearly illustrates our thinking in terms of this Fibonacci price theory component and other technical aspects. The CYAN price trend line (downward sloping) suggests a failure to establish any new price highs over the longer term trend. Additionally, the recent downward price rotation suggests price weakness may be returning to Crude Oil. Pay very special attention to the Fibonacci price projection levels on the right side of this chart. Notice that the upside price projections start near $74 and the downside price projections start near $33. This is an incredible $41 price range in Crude Oil and this very wide Fibonacci projection range suggests massive volatility is about to hit.
This Daily Crude Oil chart showing our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system’s results also suggests incredible upside and downside price projections. The upside levels target the current price level (near $63.50) as well as additional levels above $70. The downside levels target a range of lower price objectives between $53 and $57. The current Fibonacci price target level (CYAN) is quite interesting as it suggests Oil prices will find resistance near $63.50 and potentially move lower if this upside price trend fails.
Therefore, we take the entire analysis into consideration and come to the following conclusion:
If price falls below the $64 level and begins to move below $61.85 (the Daily Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level), then we would consider the current upside price trend to have “failed” in attempting to reach a “new higher high” level (which would require price to move to levels above $66.60). This conclusion would suggest that the failure of the upside price move should prompt a downside price move attempting to take out the $60.07 lows (attempting to establish a “new lower low” price level).
The longer-term downward sloping price channel suggests the failure to achieve recent higher price highs is indicative of a failed rally attempt which will prompt a new downside price move in the near future. The only condition that could reverse this analysis is if Oil prices rallied above $66.60 and attempted to break the longer term price channel.
It is our opinion that Crude Oil will attempt a move lower, attempting to breach the $60.07 low price level and attempt a move back to levels near $55 to $56 before finding support. This current rotation in price is a process of setting up a downward sloping Pennant/Flag formation (we believe). Global economic factors, being what they are right now, are likely to see increased supply and decreased demand for Oil across the planet – at least until more clarity and resolution is established with the US/China trade issues and the US Presidential elections.
Get ready for a big move in Crude Oil. Our analysis suggests the move will be to the downside with a downside target between $53 and $55 right now. Any further price expectations will be updated as we get further information from our proprietary price modeling systems. Remember, any new conflicts/wars with Iran or in the Middle East will push Oil prices much higher and negate the technical analysis/supply/demand price analysis we’ve presented. We would not like to see any conflicts happen, but we have to be aware that this reality exists and that Oil could rally well past $70 if a new conflict occurred.
If you want to follow the exact trades I take while learning to read the charts and make money be sure to join my Wealth Trading Newsletter today!
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/14.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-21 16:26:302019-05-21 16:26:30Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Volatility
In our continued effort to help skilled traders/investors understand the future risks associated with geopolitical market turmoil, the EU Elections next week and the continued US/China trade war, this Part III of our Sector Rotation article will highlight certain sectors that we believe may continue to perform over the next 12 to 24+ months and help traders/investors survive any extended price volatility/rotation over that same time. Read Part I, and Part II.
Currently, the US stock market has weathered a bit of a jolt in terms of price rotation. After many stock indexes reached new all-time highs, the news of Iran Oil Sanctions, US/China trade talks failing and the political turmoil in DC as an incredible 2020 US Presidential election cycle heats up, investors are watching the markets for any signs of strength or weakness. Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to strengthen against other global currencies in an incredible show of “King Dollar” strength and dominance. All of this plays into one of our favorite narratives that we started discussing over 30 months ago – the Global Capital Shift.
For those of you who remember our many articles about this global market phenomenon and the root causes of it, we’ll try to keep the following example/explanation of it fairly short. For those of you that are new to our research, please allow us to try to explain the Capital Shift event and why it is important to understand.
The Capital Shift started after the 2008-09 global credit market collapse. The US and many other nations created an easy money policy that was designed to spark investment and recovery across the globe. This easy money, at first, supported failing companies and governments in order to maintain social order and structure. After that process was completed, this capital went to work investing in under-valued global markets and assets. As prices continued to rise and the easy money policies became rooted into the social structure, the hunt for greater returns rotated throughout the planet – diving into undervalued markets and opportunities, often with no regard for risk.
After 2014, things began to change in the US and throughout the planet. The US entered a period of extended sideways trading that caused many investors to reconsider the “buy the dip” mentality. In 2014-15, China initiated “capital controls” in an effort to prevent outflows of capital from a newly rich population and corporate structure. Just before 2014, the Emerging Markets went through a period of pricing collapse which was associated with over-inflated expectations and $100+ oil. All of that started changing in 2014~2016 as Oil prices collapsed – taking with it the expectations and promises of many Emerging Market investors and speculators.
This shifting of capital in search of “returns with a moderate degree of risk” is what we are calling the “Capital Shift Event”. It is still taking place and it is our opinion that the US stock market will become the central focus of global capital investment over the next 4+ years. We believe the strength of the US Dollar and the strength of the US Stock Market/US Economy will drive future capital investment into US and other US Associated major markets in an attempt to avoid risks associated with the foreign market and currency market valuations. In other words, when the crap starts flying across the globe, cash will rush into the US and other safe-haven investments to protect real value.
Currently, the potential for another price decline in Crude Oil is rather strong with our research expecting a move back below $55 ppb over the next 4+ months. We believe a further economic contraction across the globe with a very strong potential for increased price volatility will drive Oil prices back below $55 with a very strong potential for prices to settle near $46~48 before the downward trend is completed.
The potential for some type of price contraction over the next 12+ months will be related to how the global and localized economic concerns play out over the next 24+ months. Yet, investors can prepare for these extended price rotations now by becoming aware of weakening price trends and the potential that certain sectors will likely be hit harder than others. For example, the most recent price weakness in the US stock market appears to be focused in certain sectors:
Technology, Semiconductors, Scientific Instruments, Financials, Asset Management, Property Management, Banking (Generally all over the US), Consumer Goods – Electronics, Airlines, Mail Order Services, Industrial Goods, Aerospace/Defense, Farming and Farming Supply, Medical Laboratories, Medical Appliances, Oil & Gas and others. This type of market contraction is fairly common in an early stage Commodity and Industrial economic slowdown.
The sectors that are improving over the past week are : Healthcare, Electric Utilities, Diversified Utilities, Gas Utilities, Consumer Personal Products, Consumer Confectioners, Cigarettes, Entertainment, Beverages and Soft Drinks, Meat Products, Specialty Eateries, REITS (almost all types), Credit Services, Telecom and Telecom/Communication Services.
All of these are protectionist rallies based on the US/China trade war and the market rotation away from Technology/manufacturing growth and into more consumer protectionist spending mode – where the consumer and larger firms focus on core items while expecting a mild recession within the economy. All of this is very common at this time within the US Presidential Election cycle. In fact, our researchers have shown that nearly 80% of the time when a major US presidential election is taking place, the US stock markets will decline within the 24 months prior to the election date.
The Monthly S&P heat map is not much different. It is still showing weakness where we expect and strength in sectors that have been somewhat dormant over the past 4+ years. The key to success for skilled traders is to be able to play this future price rotation very effectively as the different sectors continue to rotate headed into the 2020 US Presidential Elections and with all of the external foreign market factors taking place.
It is quite likely that the US Dollar will continue to push high, possibly well above $102, before finding any real resistance. It is very likely that most of the US stock market will fair quite well over the next 24+ months – yet we do expect some extended price rotation over this time and we believe Technology, Financials, Real estate, and Industrial/Consumer related stock sectors could take a hit over the next 16 to 24 months. These rotations are, again, common for this type of US Presidential Election cycle. Skilled traders are already aware of this cycle and have begun to prepare for this event to unfold. The unknowns of the current global market is China and the EU at present.
And with that last US Dollar chart, there you have it. Our three-part article about how the Global Capital Shift is about to intensify and continue to drive a US Sector rotation that many traders have failed to consider. The EU elections, the US/China trade wars, and the US Presidential Election event are all big factors in what we believe will drive in an increased level of uncertainty over the next 16~24 months. Additionally, we are very concerned that China is very close to experiencing what we are calling a “broken backbone” over the next 12+ months. We believe the pricing pressures in combination with a slowing economy and a consumer move into a protectionist stance could create a waterfall event in China/Asia.
Our advice for traders is to protect open long positions and to prepare for 16 to 36 months of “repositioning” of the global markets. The US elections are certain to drive an incredible range of future expectations throughout the world. Combine that with the EU elections, the BREXIT effort and the continued repositioning of US/China/Foreign market relations and we are setting up for a big shock-wave event in the near future.
Follow our research. We’ve already mapped out the next 24 to 36 months of market price activity with our proprietary price modeling tools. We believe we know what will happen over the next 24 to 36 months, we are just waiting for the price to confirm our analysis. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/10.png427700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-21 10:53:182019-05-21 10:53:18Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Part III
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have been pouring over the charts and data to identify what is likely to happen over the next 60+ days in terms of global stock market volatility vs. the US stock market expectations. Recently, we posted a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system on the Transportation Index (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-rally-hard-is-the-volatility-move-over/). This research suggests we are still going to experience increased price volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and that price rotation may become somewhat of a normal expectation throughout the rest of 2019.
We believe the key to understanding price volatility over the next 30+ days lies in understanding the potential causes of uncertainty and capital shifts that are taking place around the globe.
Next week, On May 23~26, 2019, the European Elections take place (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/european-elections-2019-uk-vote-date-results/). This voting encompasses all 26 EU nations where all 753 European Parliament seats may come into question. The biggest issues are BREXIT and continue EU leadership and economic opportunities for members. The contentious pre and post-election rancor could drive wild price swings in the global markets over the next 10+ days.
A tough stance between both nations, the United States and China, have left trade talks completely unresolved (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/chinas-tough-trade-rhetoric-leaves-talks-with-u-s-in-limbo-idUSKCN1SN207). At this point, the currency market is attempting to absorb much of the future expectations while the US/China stock markets react to immediate news events and perceived future economic outcomes. Overall, until this issue is resolved for both nations, the news cycles will likely drive increased price volatility across the global markets.
The US 2020 Presidential Elections are ramping up with over 24 Democratic potentials attempting to unseat President Trump. The current new from DC regarding the continued DOJ investigations and political posturing regarding Barr, Nadler and a host of other DC actors is setting up for a “cliff hanger” outcome over the next 12+ months. This will likely become one of the most hotly contested US Presidential election events in decades. The news of investigations, political corruption, and a potential US political “coup” attempt is certain to keep everyone guessing over the next 2+ years.
The markets are reacting to this volatility by attempting to adjust valuations expectations and future economic outcomes in multiple forms; currency price valuations (attempting to adjust to a shifting future economic landscape as well as to attempt to mitigate risk/capital/credit issues), Stock Market price valuations (attempting to further mitigate risk/capital and credit issues, and debt rates (attempting to effectively price risk and output expectations for the future).
Here is a map of the Currency Market over the past 12 months. We can see the dramatic shift that has taken place since the price peak in February 2018.
Overall, the US Dollar has continued to strengthen over the past 12+ months and is regaining the “King Dollar” status as the global uncertainty continue to plague foreign and EU markets. We don’t expect this to change in the near future.
Our continued research into the current price rotation in the US and global markets suggest that we are going to continue to experience moderately high price volatility across all markets over the next 30 to 60+ days – possibly well into the end of 2019. As we suggested, above, the uncertainty relating to the multiple election events and global trade/geopolitical events do not present a foundation of calm and collected future guidance. The only thing we can suggest regarding these future expectations is that the US and more mature global markets should be able to navigate these uncertain times much more effectively than emerging or “at risk” foreign markets.
Below, you will see a global Heat-Map spanning one week. Traders should take special notice that certain EU countries are surviving the recent global price rotation quite well (France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, Germany, and others). We believe this is the result of the fact that these economies are rather mature and consistent in their output and expectations. Pay attention to the South American, Asian and Caribbean nations. It would appear that a fairly strong price contraction is taking place throughout much of these nations as the focus shifts towards the more mature markets.
The following One Month global Heat-Map highlights a slightly different economic picture for some nations, yet confirms the shorter-term (weekly) trends for many others. Bermuda, Cayman, Germany, and Switzerland appear to be the Bullish Leaders over the past 30 days while the rest of the globe appears to be slipping into Bearish price trends. Canada and the UK appear moderately mixed with some green showing on the heat-map – which would be expected as both of these nations are considered mature global economies with strong economic ties to the US.
We believe the next 10~30+ days are going to be filled with moderate price volatility and we expect a setup in the global markets, near the end of June 2019, where a massive price volatility explosion may take place. This could be correlated with some trade issue, some fallout of the EU elections or some breakdown in credit/debt risks taking place between now and September 2019. We’ll go into more detail in Part II of this research post.
This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.
For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.
Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have a few more left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have a few more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/7.png359700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-20 10:07:242019-05-20 10:07:24US vs. Global Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/5.png251400adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-17 22:00:152019-05-17 22:01:06Major Gold caps getting more attention than Juniors
Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout. We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part. It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes. Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.
The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility. That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain. After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.
This Monthly TRAN ADL chart shows two ADL DNA Marker data points. The first data point, April 2018, consisted of 12 unique ADL price instances and suggests a moderate upside price bias may continue until near the end of July or early August 2019. August 2019 appears to be a “price anomaly” setup with a target price level near 10,000 for that month. Thus, August 2019, or any time +/- 30 days from that month, could be very volatile. The second data point originates from June 2018 and consists of 4 unique ADL price instances. The lack of ADL price instances (4 vs 12) is not as important as the predicted outcome of this DNA marker. ADL instances with small numbers of matching instances tend to be unique price data – something that is not seen in price that often and somewhat rare. This ADL data point is predicting a moderate upside price bias until June/July 2019, then the DNA marker is telling us that a downward price bias should start and that these future predictions do not have a strong probable outcome. This means August through November 2019 could be very volatile and result in unexpected price actions.
This next chart is a Weekly TRAN ADL chart that suggests 2 or 3 more weeks of moderate upside price bias before a big decline in prices headed into June 2019. If we follow the DASH lines on this chart and count the weeks going forward, it appears June 2019 will result in a moderate price decline toward the recent lows – possibly a bit lower. Then it appears the TRAN will stall near 10,200 – possibly moving a bit higher near the middle/end of July. After that, the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that the TRAN will break down below the 10,200 level and potentially head much lower – towards the 9,600.
The timing of this is interesting because it suggests the current US/China trade issues will not result in more price decline for the next 30+ days. Yes, we’ll like to see more price rotation, but the potential for a massive price decline over this span of time is rather muted. We may see a retest of the 10,200 level near Mid-June, but price should find support at that time and recover towards the 10,400 to 10,500 level near early July. Mid to End July looks very weak – where price may break aggressively lower, below 10,200 and attempt to target the 9,600 level.
This next chart is a Weekly TRAN chart showing our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system. The Fibonacci price modeling system is one of our standard analysis tools. This utility is suggesting that price weakness may set up a Descending Flag formation over the next few weeks/months. This type of pattern suggests that a breakout move will result after the apex is reached. The YELLOW trend line on this chart may become a downside price target if our ADL predictions are correct and the TRAN price breaks down toward the 9,600 level or lower.
Take another look at the end of the first, Monthly ADL chart. See those YELLOW upside ADL arrows on the right side of the chart? Those are the current ADL predictions for October, November, December 2019. This prediction suggests that the Apex Breakout move at the end of the Descending Flag formation will be an upside price breakout sometime near the end of 2019.
Be prepared for another increase in volatility in Early June and Early/Mid July. Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting a breakdown in price will happen near these dates and this downside move should result in increased VIX/Volatility when the breakdown happens.
This does not appear to be the BIG CRASH that everyone is talking about. It appears to be a normal price pattern setup as weakness settles in and the TRAN appears to retest the 10,000 level (support) with the potential of moving slightly below this level.
We’ve just highlighted what our predictive modeling system is currently proposing will happen over the next 6+ months in the TRAN. If you know anything about the TRAN, you should be able to translate this into a trading road-map for the next 6+ months in the US markets. What is the value of having something like the ADL – being able to look into the future and see what is likely to happen 4 to 6+ months into the future? Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we deploy these proprietary tools for our members to help them find and execute better trades.
This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.
For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 20% already.
Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have a few left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have a few more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2.png387700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-05-16 21:09:122019-05-16 21:09:12Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over?
Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system. It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level.
The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher. The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions.
This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the narrow price range, between $61 and $64.75, where a range of support and resistance levels are found with our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system. The fact that this failed price rally cleared the $63 level, then fell sharply afterward suggests that support for any upside price rally in Crude Oil is very weak. We would expect the price to rotate lower and retest the $61 level before breaking this level and moving much lower to find ultimate support.
We continue to attempt to reinforce one basic Fibonacci theory price rule for all of our followers to understand: Price must ALWAYS attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows at ALL TIMES.
We want to continue to push this message out to our followers so they can begin to understand how this price theory rule actually works in real-time application. This failed attempt to break the Bullish Fibonacci price trigger level is/was an attempt to establish a new price high. Failure to establish this new price high suggests that price will attempt to establish a new price low.
This weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the key Fibonacci trigger price levels that are located in a very narrow range near $63.25. The failed move higher, suggests a new price low will be attempted and ultimate support is currently near the $52.25 level.
With the US/China trade new still hitting the news cycles, we expect some extended volatility in the markets as well as currency price fluctuations in an attempt to mitigate the trade/stock market volatility/pricing. Additionally, we expect commodity price levels to come under continued pressure for two main reasons: A. the US Presidential election cycle continue to draw attention away from economic activity, and B. the global economy is already showing signs of economic and manufacturing weakness. This US/China trade issue will certainly put more pressure on commodity prices while creating a renewed level of FEAR in the markets.
As we’ve been warning everyone for the past 5+ months – get ready for some really big moves in 2019 and 2020. This type of market is a skilled traders dream come true. Big moves, big rotations, and big profits. Also, if you have not read our Recent Gold Bottom article be sure to read that now.
This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.
For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.
Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 4 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 4 more silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
