Part II – Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan”

In the first part of this multi-part research post, we highlighted what we are calling a Crazy Ivan price event (borrowed from the movie Red October – (source).  The one thing we want you to take away from this article is that August 19, 2019, should be a major price inflection date where the price is very likely to begin a new downside price trend in the US and global stock markets.  This will likely push commodity prices to extremes and may very well push Gold and Silver into the stratosphere as fear and greed take hold across the planet. Part I we highlighted how the VIX and the NQ are set up to react to this Crazy Ivan pricing event and how we believe many traders/investors are simply unaware of the potential for this type of large reversion price move.  We want to be clear, we believe the US markets will be somewhat immune from extended downside risks.  This does not mean there won’t be a downside price move and this does not mean that the markets won’t experience the Crazy Ivan reversion trend.  It will likely happen just as we are expecting, yet we believe the US stock markets will quickly recover from this move – like it has done many times in the past. Our research that highlighted this August 19, 2019 date and the potential for what we are calling the Crazy Ivan price move is rooted in our super-cycle analysis, predictive modeling tools, and other specialized proprietary price modeling solutions and utilities.  We believe we’ve identified a key inflection point/date that will start what we are calling a “breakdown move” which will lead to the Crazy Ivan event throughout the globe.  As we stated in the first part of this article – we don’t know the exact composition of this event yet, but we do know that is should begin to happen near or after August 19, 2019. Now, let’s get busy digging into the Gold and Silver charts for all our followers.

Gold 2-Week Chart Interval

This first Gold 2-Week chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling tool and helps to show us where the price is targeting for the initial upside move from the April 21~24 Momentum Base pattern that we called back in January 2019.  We believe the current breakout upside price move will initially target the  $1597 level before briefly stalling, then rallying further to target the $1785 level or higher. We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push Gold much higher than our projected levels under certain circumstances: A. The US Dollar weakens throughout the initial process of the Crazy Ivan event B.  Cryptos collapse as governments clamp down on rogue exchanges/currencies C.  Massive credit and debt issues arise in China, Asia or the EU that threaten future economic output and operations D.  Some type of crisis event unfolds where global investors believe war or conflict is imminent. (think Hong Kong, North Korea or somewhere in that general vicinity). Without these additional impetuses in the metals market, we believe the price will follow our Crazy Ivan expectations (YELLOW LINES, below) fairly closely over the next 30 to 60+ days.

Silver Daily Chart Interval

Silver, on the other hand, is set up to break substantially higher based on the upside move we expect in Gold and the possibility that the Gold/Silver ratio will continue to contract to lower levels.  Recently, the Gold/Silver ratio fell from approximately 93 to 86.  This move relates the total number of ounces of Silver one must buy to equal the price of one ounce of Gold.  Currently, this level is back up to 89.5 as Gold has rallied faster than Silver has rallied. But what happens when traders catch onto the fact that Gold and Silver will rally as this Crazy Ivan event takes place and that Silver is the true undervalued metal across the planet?  At the peak of Gold/Silver prices near April 2011, the Gold/Silver ratio was resting near 32 (yes you read that properly).  What would that look like on the Silver chart, below, if Gold continued to rally to levels above $2000?  It is really simple to find out. $2000 (Gold per ounce) / 32 = $62.50 per ounce for Silver What if Gold rallied a full 100% Fibonacci measured move from the previous 1999-2011 rally?  That peak level would be $2700 in Gold and the calculation is still simple. $2700 (estimate Gold peak) / 32 = $84.375 per ounce for Silver. Could it happen like this?  Yes, in theory, and reality it really could happen that Gold rallies to a level that equals a full 100% Fibonacci price extension and the ratio level falls to levels near 32.  If that were to happen, then these calculations would be accurate. This is why we believe the Crazy Ivan event will become the catalyst for some really incredible trading opportunities and big price swings over the next 6 to 13+ months.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Our $21 upside price target in Silver is really muted compared to our long term price projections.  Yet everything hinges on this August 19, 2019 breakdown cycle date and what happens after that.  Our research suggests this current downside price move may have been a volatility explosion related to the lack of liquidity in the global markets and to hint that the markets are capable of being far more irrational for far longer than anyone expects. We are only 9 days into August and we have already closed out 24.16% in gains from the falling SP500 using SDS, and the pop in gold using UGLD, and from the oversold bounce and rally in silver miners SIL. We urge all of our followers to pay attention to our research, consider your options very closely and prepare for this next move by pulling some of your active portfolio away from risks and into more protective measures.  This Crazy Ivan event is just 10 days away and we really want to urge all of our followers to not under-estimate this event cycle.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

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Up over 24.16% in Gains this month and its only Aug 8th Sent Thursday, August 8, 2019

I hope this weeks sell-off and rally whipsaw didn’t catch you off guard? Subscribers of TheTechnicalTraders Wealth Building Newsletter pocketed a whopping 24.16% return this week with three positions (SDS, UGLD & SIL).
Anyways, on Wednesday I sent you a reminder that I will be adding my short term trading signal software signals to my newsletter like the ones listed above and once I add these I will be raising the newsletter price. My ETF Trading Newsletter is available with up to a 30% discount plus I am giving away a free silver or gold bars for select membership levels which could be worth a lot of money a year or two from now and pay for most of the newsletter. I just wanted to let you know this lower rate and offer will end soon so this will be your LAST CHANCE to get on board and test drive an ETF trading service that truly makes money for its subscribers and teaches you at the same time! Summer is coming to an end which means it’s time to prepare for a strong fourth quarter in trading. The Wealth Building ETF trading and education program has been navigating its members through the market with precision for many years.

In fact, we just broke the 100% return on our entire portfolio since Jan 2018.

The focus is on US-based exchange traded funds but if you live in Canada or overseas you can use our trades one similar ETFs for your own exchanges and make similar returns! In case you don’t know who I am, my name is Chris Vermeulen the founder and editor of the Wealth Building Newsletter to make navigating the financial market as easy as it gets. I provide simple low-risk ETF trading analysis sharing all of my trades ideas with the subscribers. You start the day knowing exactly what type of volatility to expect in the coming session and where the key support and resistance levels are for the key underlying asset type being the Dollar, Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and S&P 500. If you have a smaller trading account this is the perfect service for you because of the scalability which ETF’s provide. Be sure to check out my website www.TheTechnicalTraders.com because he has a killer offer to become an exclusive member before this Friday. As we head towards the fourth quarter I have a few great trade ideas queued up. Overall it looks like 2019 will continue to be another banner year for the newsletter!

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Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” – Part I

We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”.  We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process. Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event.  It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event.  We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues.  God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now. Please review these earlier research posts for more information : July 24, 2019: PART II – BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED July 24, 2019: SILVER PRICE TARGET DURING THE NEXT BULL MARKET July 20, 2019: US & GLOBAL MARKETS SETTING UP FOR A VOLATILITY EXPLOSION – ARE YOU READY? July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS Our job as research analysts is to highlight what we believe is likely to happen and why we believe it is likely to happen.  Therefore, without guessing as to the cause of the event, let’s focus on the “Crazy Ivan” event and how we can attempt to profit from it. First, let’s take a look at the VIX chart.  The VIX basing level (the lowest level the VIX has attained between price spikes) has been increasing as US stock market volatility continues to increase.  The nature of the calculations that make up the VIX would suggest this increase in basing levels would happen as extended volatility continues to be present in the markets – so this is expected.  What is not expected is the August 19th price inflection point that we believe will drive an unexpected price reversion in the US and global stock markets.  We believe this cycle inflection date is key to understanding how the markets will react going into the end of 2019 and beyond. If our analysis is correct, then we believe a breakdown in the US and global markets will occur on or shortly after August 19, 2019, where the US stock markets are poised for a -15% to -25% price reversion.  This downside move in the US stock market would set up an incredible “price anomaly” for skilled technical traders that should provide an incredible opportunity for future profits. We believe the ultimate downside potential for this move may last all the way through the end of 2019 and into early 2020 – although we can’t be certain yet as to the depth and severity of this move using our predictive modeling tools and utilities.  All we know is that it is about to happen based on what our predictive modeling tools are telling us and we have continued to try to warn you of this move for the past few months.  So here it is – the Crazy Ivan (as we’re calling it). Any VIX rally that pushes the price above 30 or 40 would have to be rather severe compared to previous rotations.  The spikes on this chart related as follows on the NQ chart : Early May VIX Spike to 23.31 resulted in a -938.25 point move (-11.91%) in the NQ The current August VIX spike to 24.80 resulted in a -848.75 point move (-10.54%) in the NQ. What would a move to above 32 in the VIX look like on the NQ chart?  How about a move to above 42 on the VIX?  Hello Crazy Ivan.
This next chart of the NQ on a monthly basis highlights our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system at work.  This utility helps us to understand where the price will want to target in the future and also helps us to understand trend and outlying price trends (or price anomalies).  Price anomalies happen when price moves substantially away from where the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price wants to be at.  Thus, if the price of the NQ were to fall below $5500 very quickly (think Crazy Ivan) and our ADL modeling tool suggests that price really wants to be at $6800 at that time, then we have a $3300 price anomaly setting up.  This is a type of reactive price anomaly that suggests price is way off target and will attempt to revert to levels closer to the ADL predictive price levels. We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push the price of the NQ much lower than our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting and create a price anomaly that may become one of the most profitable trades near the end of 2019. You can see from this ADL predictive modeling chart that price is expected to be lower near the end of 2019, but steadily climb higher into early 2020.  If price were to end up below 6400 by the end of 2019, that would set up a 1000+ point price anomaly setup that could become an incredible upside price move in early 2020.  Time will tell as this Crazy Ivan event plays out.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In the second part of this article, we’ll study the Crazy Ivan event in the metals and show you what we believe will happen to both Gold and Silver as this event plays out.  You won’t want to miss this one.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

Become a technical trader and profit like a pro! Click Here

Chris Vermeulen

Lead Story in TradersWorld Magazine – Free and A Must Read pg 7

Larry Jacobs the owner of TradersWorld magazine which is the best publication for technical analysis and technical trading featured a great article on the where the stock market is as of today, and how this exact setup in price is what we experienced in 2008 JUST before the big crash. Download the magazine here free and skip to page 7 which is the first article and give it a quick read, it’s packed with incredible insight for what is next, not only for the US stock market but gold, silver and miners also.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD MAGAZINE FREE

A LOOK AT THE DOWNTREND IN US MARKETS AND OIL, AND THE UPTREND IN GOLD

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins Cory Fleck today to share his thoughts on the recent downtrend in US markets and oil, plus a couple of comments on the gold uptrend. Long term trends are still the most important and until a larger break happens the trend is still higher. more importantly, the gold uptrend seems to just be beginning.
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Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups For Technical Traders

Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels. We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move.  Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

The US/China trade issues and global economic turmoil is taking a toll on Crude Oil.  Price rotated downward very sharply last week with an incredible -8% downside move in one day.  Currently, price is resting just above the Moving Average and should soon breakdown below this level towards the $49 price level.  At that point, price should stall, briefly, before attempting to find support below $50. Our Fibonacci price modeling system suggests true support is found near $45 and $40.  Be prepared for a potential downside move of -20% to -25% from current levels.

Natural Gas Weekly Chart

Natural Gas has done exactly what we expected.  On this Weekly chart, you can see our shaded BLUE support range area and our GREEN and RED arrows from months ago highlighting what we expected to happen in price.  Yes, price is lower than we currently expected, but it has aligned with our expected price rotation almost perfectly. At this point, the sub $2.20 level is a perfect opportunity for skilled technical traders to prepare for the seasonal trend that will push Natural Gas back above the $2.65 to $3.15 level.  Allow us to go through our expectations with you so you understand how to plan for and trade this move. August is typically moderately bearish for NG.  So expect to try to pick your entry for this trade in August.  The ratio of bearish price activity in August is 1.2x the bullish price activity. September is STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 10x compared to historical downside price activity.  September is where we should see a big upside price move. October is still STRONGLY BULLISH – with an upside ratio of 3x compared to historical downside price activity. November is moderately bullish with a 1.3x upside ratio compared to downside price activity.

VIDEO – TODAYS MARKET ANALYSIS SPX, BONDS, GOLD, OIL, NAT GAS

If you want to get access to my trading indicators and market prediction tools checkout these charts here

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

This means two things.  First, Crude Oil should continue to breakdown and target the $49 price level over the next few days and weeks while Natural Gas sets up an incredible upside price setup below $2.25 for skilled technical traders.  Oil is moving lower because of lower demand related to the global economic slowdown and larger supply issues.  Natural Gas is setting up a seasonal pattern that could become a fantastic trading opportunity for traders that time their entries and understand the setup.  In late August or early September price should begin to rally well above $2.50 with an ultimate upside target of well above $3.00. In short, if you want to know what the market is going to nearly every day and get my trade alerts complete with entry, targets and stop prices join my Wealth Building Newsletter – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com Chris Vermeulen Technical Traders Ltd.

Where’s the Market bottom? Is This It?

Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend.  Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT?  The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?” Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for.  This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets.  Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we’ve been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders. At this time, if you have not been paying attention to our research and have not already scaled back your long trades in preparation for this type of volatility, you may get one more chance to reposition your portfolio before the move really breaks.  We believe the US markets are over-reacting to this US/China trade issue and the new tariffs with regards to this current downside price move.  We believe that once the news settles and reality returns, investors will suddenly realize the US economic outlook, as well as 4th quarter expectations, are much more opportunistic than current global trade issues. There are three critical aspects that we, as skilled technical traders, have to consider at this time. _  First, the 6 to 18-month pre-election price weakness cycle that should prompt a price decline sometime between now and May or June 2020.  Every major Presidential election cycle in the US has prompted this type of price weakness cycle as concerns regarding the future leadership in the US as well as a moderate economic stagnation in the US related to the election cycle create a pause/rotation in the US equity markets.  Is it starting early because of the US/China trade issues?  Take a minute to read this. _  Second, the global trade issues and Asia/China banking issues present a very interesting dynamic related to global expectations.  As we’re reported, Asia/China have attempted to take advantage of cheap US Dollar QE functions and extended this debt into all sorts of projects and banking instruments.  As the US Fed pushes interest rates higher while the Asian/Chinese economic outlook weakens, at some point the Asian/Chinese markets may enter a “death spiral” mode with a domino-effect type of collapse.  Once the Asian/Chinese economy turns from expansion/growth to contraction/fear, it is just a matter of time before panic sets in as consumers watch assets, markets, capital and opportunity contract into the abyss.  How much longer can China continue to keep their citizens immune from reality? Take a minute to read this. _  Third, the EU is starting to crumble under the weight of the lack of foreign investment and growth expectations.  Recent news suggests that Germany has entered a negative rate process with GDP and manufacturing shrinking considerably over the past 16+ months.  We believe this contraction in the EU is starting to take root and could be a much broader problem in the EU than anyone really wants to admit. Take a minute to read this.

ES Mini – SP500 Index Daily Chart

Using our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system, we’re going to attempt to highlight why we believe this move may be very close to being over (bottoming) and why traders need to pay attention to the rotation/reversion that may begin to unfold very shortly.  First, we’ll take a look at this ES Daily chart and we want all of our readers to pay attention to the deeper price low setup in June 2019.  Until the current price breaks below that low price level, near 2720, Fibonacci price theory teaches us that this downside rotation is nothing more than a bearish price rotation in a BULLISH trend.  Fibonacci price theory suggests that price will attempt to identify new price support (likely near the GREY and RED projected Fib price levels on the right side of the chart) and then attempt to rotate higher after support has been found. If our analysis is correct, then the price has already found support, near 2900, and is already exploring a “washout low” price level below this critical support level on the ES.  This would suggest that price may attempt a rebound upside price move (reversion) back to levels near 3000 fairly quickly once this downside pricing pressure (news) abates. Just like we saw back in May, we profited from the rally before the May sell-off, then we profited from the falling market using SDS just like we did again for the recent rally now this market crash/correction. Our Current SDS ETF is up over 8.5% in a couple of days during a time when everyone else is losing a lot of money.

Dow Jones Industrial Index Daily Chart

This INDU chart paints a similar picture where price has already broken lower, below the 26,000 GREY Fibonacci projected target level and is currently resting just 400 points above the ORANGE Moving Average support level.  If our analysis is correct and this is a washout low price rotation that will prompt a price reversion move, the upside potential in the INDU is +1000 to +1750 points higher.

NASDAQ Daily Chart

Lastly, this NASDAQ chart represents the most volatile of the three markets we are highlighting.  The NQ Fibonacci price modeling system suggests the downside price move has yet to reach the GREY or RED Fibonacci projected targets and that suggests the NQ could still see some price weakness over the next few days.  Overall, though, the ES and INDU are suggesting the bottom is likely already starting to form and we would not be surprised to see the NQ trading above 7800 before August 19, 2019 (+300 points).
The one thing we want to keep in mind is that the total global stock market matrix is not a single entity – it is a combination of various entities that make up a basket of trading instruments.  As the old saying goes, it is not a “stock market”, it is a “market of stocks”. Pay attention to how capital shifts play out as we get nearer to the US election date and what is happening throughout the world.  The German elections, BREXIT, Asian/Chinese market turmoil and commodity price deflation are all playing out to generate these huge swings in the global markets.  Our members have already seen incredible success from our calls and trades.  Isn’t it time for you to learn how TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you stay ahead of these incredible market moves? In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed for the next. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

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Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Is This The Start Of The Next Bear Market?

Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets.  Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up.  So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months. First things first, the foundation of Fibonacci price theory is that price will always attempt to seek out new price highs or new price lows – ALWAYS.  Many of the US major indexes have recently established new price highs in early July 2019.  Think of this as a fundamental element in price structure when attempting to apply Fibonacci price theory. When any chart establishes a new price high (a high price that is above the previous rotational peak level in price), the trend is established as BULLISH and we would immediately expect, at some future time, that price will rotate lower attempting to validate that new price high or attempt to reach a new price low.  At certain times, external news can create “price over-reaction” events within the scope of price volatility.  I’m certain many of you have experienced these types of expanded price ranges that turn into a “wash-out” type of wide-range rotations in the markets. The combination of the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failures, as well as the rally in Gold, Silver and the US Dollar, are all acting to create a hyper-active rotation in the markets with larger volatility. We suggest that everyone read these earlier research posts to better understand what is really happening in the markets right now : July 30, 2019: August 19 Market Top Prediction July 31, 2019: US Fed is rattling the global markets – Part II It is our opinion that the US Fed announcement followed immediately by the US/China trade talk failure created a “hyper-active” price rotation event that will likely turn into a short-term buying opportunity.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will attempt to target levels above 8200 before the August 19, 2019 peak sets up.  Therefore, it is still our belief that the markets are setting up a unique “price anomaly” with this current downside price rotation and that a move higher is in the works before the bigger downside price rotation actually begins. This Daily NQ chart highlights the support level near 7600 that was set up by the June 2019 price rotation.  Yes, the price has moved lower into this zone, but we believe this zone will act as a moderate support level and that price will rotate higher early in the week of August 5, 2019.
This Weekly NQ chart highlights our Fibonacci price modeling system and shows the “Critical Support” level from the October 2018 highs as well as the Bullish/Bearish trigger levels (the RED/GREEN lines near the right edge of the chart) that constitute confirmed price rotations.  At this time, the current BEARISH trigger levels are near 7540 and the NQ is still 140 points above this level.

NEXT MOVES FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe this current downside price move is setting up to become an over-reaction price swing that will likely result in a very short-term buying opportunity for skilled technical traders.  Failure to reach levels below 7400 on the NQ would be a very strong indication that this is a “failed new price low rotation” on the Weekly chart.  And, as Fibonacci price theory suggests, price must always attempt to establish a new price high or new price low – at all times.  Thus, a failure to establish a new price low on this weekly chart would mean it MUST rotate higher to attempt to establish a new price high.  8200+, here we come. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been set up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Palladium collapses After Our Double-Top From Early July 2019

It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019.  Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019.  At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely. January 24, 2018: HAVE YOU SEEN PALLADIUM’S TRADABLE PRICE PATTERN?
July 3, 2019: PALLADIUM SETS UP ANOTHER DOUBLE TOP PATTERN
Palladium is a very interesting metal that is used in various industry sectors as a component for automobile equipment/parts, medical equipment, and many other industrial sectors.  It is a great leading indicator to help gauge future expectations for various global industries and as a measure of consumer/industrial consumption and expectations.  When Palladium is rallying, it is a fairly solid sign that consumers are bullish on the global economy and are purchasing equipment, autos and other industrial elements to support future growth expectations.  When Palladium is falling, it is a fairly solid sign that consumers are reigning in their spending on new cars and other industrial items that are manufactured with Palladium. One of the biggest factors that are likely driving this move in Palladium is the renewed interest in Gold and Silver as the global market enters a very fragile period.  Palladium is a precious metal that is used in jewelry and other consumer products – like Gold and Silver.  Yet Palladium does not have the status in the precious metals world like Gold and Silver do.  When fear and greed enter the markets, Gold, Silver, and Platinum take center-stage.  Palladium, because of its more industrial use base, its not something that will rally like Gold and Silver will when a crisis hits. This Daily Palladium chart shows how the weakness in price started just after the price peak on July 11, 2019.  Over the past 3+ weeks, Palladium rotated downward towards the $1500 price level, then stalled.  Global traders were focused on earnings data, the US Fed announcement, and other data.

The recent breakdown is a result of three factors

_ US Fed rates decrease (expecting weaker global economic output) _ The rally in Gold and Silver (where global traders are starting to focus their attention) _ The fragility of global economic/trade functions that continue to plague the global markets These three factors will move the focus away from industrial use metals (Copper, Palladium, and Aluminum) and towards the more traditional Gold/Silver moves.
This Weekly Palladium chart highlights the Fibonacci price modeling system’s lower target levels.  Pay attention to the fact that $1315 and $1000 are key downside target levels in Palladium.  The Daily chart Fibonacci levels suggest that minor support may be found near $1400.  The Weekly Fibonacci chart suggests major support is really down near $1000.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

We believe once the $1475 level is breached to the downside, Palladium will quickly fall to levels near $1300 before briefly stalling and attempting to find support.  This move in Palladium aligns almost perfectly with our August 19 US market “Peak” prediction from months ago.  We believe the ultimate lower levels, near $1000, are a very strong possibility over the next 3+ months as we believe the global markets, and the US markets, are setting up for a fairly big price rotation after August 19, 2019. Don’t miss any of these big moves or our incredible research posts.  Find out how www.TheTechnicalTraders.com can help you find and execute better trades and prepare for these big price swings that are about to explode.

NEXT TRENDS FOR GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts. In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Small Caps Setup A Very Rare & Interesting Price Pattern

Our researchers have identified a very rare type of price pattern that is typically associated with explosive trend changes and trends.  We call this type of pattern a “Sandwich” pattern because of how price reacts within a range.  The IWM, Russell 2000 ETF, is illustrating a nearly perfect example of this pattern right now.

Daily IWM chart (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)

This close up view of the Daily IWM chart highlights the Sandwich pattern over the most recent 5 trading days and how price enters this volatile period, rotates around within a range, then settles near the upper or lower end of the range before a price breakout occurs.  Notice the earlier Sandwich pattern setup and how price settled near the bottom of the range before a downside price leg pushed the price much lower. It is our belief that the IWM could be setting up for a significant reversal or breakout based on this Sandwich pattern os be ready for an extended move.

Longer-term View of the Daily IWM chart

Here is a longer-term Daily IWM chart that highlights previous Sandwich patterns for you to review. We go into more detail and a very interesting setup in the IWM and transportation index that took place in 2008, same set up we see now. See charts and report here.
One thing to understand about the Sandwich pattern is that it is an early warning sign that price has reached an inflection point and will likely attempt to break out or reverse down from the ranges set up within the Sandwich pattern. Also, you can see from the examples, above, that these patterns can take many bars to form and are sometimes somewhat convoluted in structure.  The most recent Sandwich pattern is unique because it is very defined over the past 5+ days.  We believe an upside price pop to the upside could turn into a “washout high” price setup. Compare this price activity to the SPY chart and you’ll see that the IWM, Small Caps, are operating as a leading price indicator for the potential breakout/breakdown move that may happen in the immediate future.  We see similar types of price rotation, but nothing as clear as we see on the IWM chart.
The fed news is shaking things up and our analysis stats this month could be the market top. We expect Aug 19th-ish… but this month is the window we feel it may happen. Stay tuned to our research – this is going to be fun to trade.

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here. I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here. On June 26th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis. More recently on July 16th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter. Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months. Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis! Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com