The Energy Sector ETF has been on fire recently with big price trends. We called a bottom/buy trigger in ERY in early July that resulted in a nearly +20% rally. Then, on August 29th, we called for ERY to rotate lower, targeting the $46 to $47 level – setting up another price momentum base before another attempt to move higher. You can read that research post here :
With Crude Oil pushing higher over the past few weeks and targeting levels just below the $59 price area, we believe the timing of this move in ERY is almost perfect. ERY rotated lower reaching the $44 price level on September 10. We believe this low price level will likely become the price bottom (or near a price bottom) for ERY and that a new upside price trend will set up over the next few days/weeks as a momentum base. It is very likely that an initial upside price move targeting $57 or $57 will conclude the first upside price leg (+20%). After that, the further upside target is another 18.5% higher near $65.25.
If you’ve been following our Crude Oil and Energy Sector research, you’ll already know the ERY trade setups have been very good in terms of price rotation, risk, and opportunity. We believe the momentum base setup will likely take 4 to 6+ days to complete – giving skilled traders a great opportunity to identify entry locations. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
Ultimately, the next upside price move should settle just below $57 on the initial move higher, then rotate downward a bit, then move higher towards the $65 price level. Traders should consider any deeper price rotation below $46 as a solid entry price level for this next move. Crude Oil is already nearing price resistance and the energy sector may be poised for another big move higher.
A note of caution in regards to the ERY 3x ETF. Because this is a 3X ETF, skilled technical traders should be cautious in regards to risk factors. 3X ETFs can be fantastic for profits, but horrible for losses. If you are not prepared for volatility or don’t time your entry well, price rotation could result in some intermediate losses that may be tough to stomach. 3X ETFs are something that most novice traders should stay away from unless they fully understand the risks of these investments and how to properly size their trade positions.
Still, we believe the energy sector is setting up another great trade opportunity for skilled technical traders. Watch how this sets up below $46 and watch for deeper price moves below $45. Once the momentum base is set up, the upside price move should be very clean and fairly quick.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my ETF trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in 5.1% profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index, and also XLU for a quick 1.43% profit as well. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/60.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-12 14:35:132019-09-12 14:35:13Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members and most importantly we did this with very little portfolio risk. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
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This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets. We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility.
Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive.
One of the primary reasons for this shift in the markets is the strength of the US Dollar and the US Stock Market (as well as the strength in other mature economies). The capital shift that began to take place in 2013-2014 was a shift away from risk and towards safer, more mature economic sources. This shift continues today – in an even more heightened environment. The volatility we are seeing in the US and foreign markets is related to this shift taking place as well as the currency valuation changes that continue to rattle the global markets.
US Dollar Index Weekly Chart
It is our opinion that, at some point, the support levels in foreign markets may collapse while the US and major mature global economies become safe-havens for assets. When this happens, we’ll see the US Dollar rally even further which will push many foreign currencies into further despair. The overall strength of the US Dollar is being supported by this continued capital shift and the way that global assets are seeking safety and security. The same thing is happening in precious metals.
We believe the current setup in the US markets is indicative of a breakout/breakdown FLAG/Pennant formation. We believe this current setup should prompt a very volatile price swing in the markets over the next 3 to 6+ months which may become the start of a broader event playing out in the foreign markets. How this relates to precious metals is simply – more fear, more greed, more uncertainty equals a very strong rally in precious metals over the next 12+ months.
Dow Jones Index Chart
This Dow Jones chart highlights what we believe is a very strong Resistance Channel that needs to be broken if the US stock market is going to attempt to push higher in the future. You can also see the BLUE lines we’ve drawn on this chart that sets up the FLAG/Pennant formation. Although price broke through the lows of the FLAG/Pennant formation, we still consider it valid because it confirms on other US major indexes. Should the Dow Jones fail to move above the previous price high, near early July 2019, then we believe the Resistance Channel will reject price near current levels and force it lower (filling a recent gap and targeting the $25,500 level or lower).
Custom Volatility Index Chart
Our Custom Volatility Index chart shows a similar type of setup. Price weakness is evident near the upper channel level of this chart. This chart is very helpful for our research team because it puts price peaks and troughs into perspective within a “channeling-type” of rotating range. You can see that previous major price peaks have always settled above 16 or 17 on this chart. And previous major price bottoms have always settled below 7 or 8 on this chart. The current price volatility level is just above 13 – just entering the weakness zone in an uptrend. If price were to fail near this level, a move toward 8 would not be out of the question. We just have to watch and see how price reacts over the next few weeks to determine if these weakness channels will push price lower.
Gold Monthly Chart
If our research is correct, the entire move higher in precious metals, originating near the bottom in December 2015, is a complex wave formation setting up a WAVE 1 upside move. This complex wave formation is likely to consist of a total of 5 price waves (as you can see from the chart below) and will likely end with Gold trading well above the $2000 price level near or before June 2020.
If this analysis is correct, we are about to enter a very big, volatile and potentially violent price move in the global markets that could rip your face off if you are not prepared.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS”
This BEAST of a market is about to explode as we’ve highlighted by this research and these charts. It may start ripping our faces off in less than 30 days or it could take longer. One thing is for sure, the global markets are set up for something big and precious metals are beating our foreheads saying “hey, look over here!! This is where risk is trailing into as the markets continue to set up for this volatile price move!!”.
If you are not ready for this move, then we suggest you visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these big swings in the markets.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/51-1.png588850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-11 12:50:062019-09-11 12:50:06Metals & The US Dollar – How It All Relates – Part II
The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets. Particularly, throughout the foreign markets. Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar. Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.
12 Month Capital Shift Seen in Currencies
As we have been suggesting over the past 12+ months, a capital shift continues to play out in the global markets where capital is actively seeking the best, most secure locations for investment and we believe that will result in strength in mature global economies. Take a look at this chart of various foreign currencies to understand how this capital shift process is really playing out across the globe. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
Japan, Canada, Switzerland are all experiencing moderate price weakness against the US Dollar – yet these mature economies are fairing better than many others. The relationship between the EUR and the GPB appears to be relatively stable as both currencies have dramatically weakened over the past 16+ months – almost in perfect alignment. Comparatively, the other currencies within this display have experienced dramatic price weakness over the past 4+ years in relationship to the US Dollar and their associated PAIR currencies.
Gold Price Comparison In Other Currencies
The recent upside price move in precious metals exasperates the issue of localized consumption/acquisition of Gold/Silver as pricing pressures continue to push local pricing higher and higher. We are still very early in the bullish price cycle for precious metals. As increased fear and greed enter the markets over the next 15+ months, we believe the scramble to acquire physical metals and market positions will continue to increase even further.
These Gold Price Comparison charts, below, show just how dramatic the upward price move has been for foreign investors in local currencies. In US Dollar terms, Gold has risen just over 33% (approx: $350 USD). In Canadian Dollar terms, it has risen 30% over the past year (approx: $475 CAD). In Australian Dollar terms, it has risen just over 34% (approx: $590 AUD). In Chinese Yuan terms, it has risen just over 36% (approx: $$2,965 CNY). In Indian Rupee terms, it has risen just over 29% (approx: $2,545 INR). The reality is that precious metals have gotten very expensive for foreign investors in local currencies – and this is just starting to the metals rally.
The primary reason for this is the continued capital shift that has been taking place over the past 2 to 4+ years. As the global markets entered a period where commodity prices started collapsing (2014 in Oil), the global markets started shifting away from emerging markets and risky assets/investments. The hunt for more secure investment sources was on.
When Oil bottomed in early 2016, a reprieve in investor sentiment settled into the markets where expansion into more risky assets took place. All of this changed with the top formation in the US stock market in early 2018 and the downside price rotation in Oil in October 2018. Now, as precious metals start to rally and clearly illustrate that fear and greed are entering the markets, the continued hunt for secure, mature economic environments continue at a record pace.
In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe the global markets are just starting a dramatic shift that will likely continue to unfold throughout the next 24+ months and why we believe it is important for all skilled technical traders to understand the risks that are present in the current global markets. This is not your simple trending global market any longer (think pre-2014) – this is a BEAST.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in more profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/40.png472850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-11 11:33:382019-09-11 11:33:38Metals & The US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I
It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week. After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York. The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet. The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting. One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months. This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.
Many months ago we authored an article about the US Presidential election cycle and how that event plays into market uncertainty and price activity. We are currently entering the prime span of time where price rotation and volatility because of this election event should take place. This “price malaise” typically happens about 16 months before the election date. As we move closer to the elections, the markets typically become much more volatile and enter a period where the price tends to consolidate near recent lows or establish moderate new lows as attention shifts away from the economy and towards the election news.
If you are serious about trading, this is when you want to pay very close attention to the various market sectors and understand that opportunities may be very short and sweet for profits.
Mid Cap Stock Index 30 Minute Chart Pattern
This first chart is the MC (S&P 400 Midcap) which shows how price strength in this sector moved against the overall price trend of the ES, YM, and others. From the start of trading, the MC appeared to have a stronger upside price bias than the other US major market sectors. This may mean that traders are finding real value in the Midcap sector and are stepping back into this sector thinking it may have some real opportunity for growth.
Transportation Index – 30 Minute Chart
Additionally, the Transportation Index moved higher in a similar structure. The Transportation Index typically leads the US stock market by 3 to 6 months as an indicator of future price expectations related to the need for trucks, rail, shipping, and other economic-related activities. More need for shipping/transportation solutions means a more active economy. A more active economy means more buying and selling of goods, services, and other items. Thus, if the Transportation Index can break recent high levels and begin a new upside price move, it would be a very clear sign that the US economy is strengthening and that the US major indexes may begin a new upside price move soon.
VIX – Volatility Index 30 Minute Chart
The VIX, on the other hand, is still showing us that price volatility has not vanished quite yet. The VIX started moving higher early in trading and continues to push a bit higher right now. If the VIX moves back above 18 or 19 quickly, the we are likely going to see increased volatility in certain sectors of the market which could present real problems for traders. As long as the VIX stays below 18, then the volatility may stay a bit muted going forward.
Pay attention to the VIX and what happens to the major stock indexes over the next 2+ weeks. Trade accordingly. This is not your simple, safe trending market any longer. This is larger volatility with increased risks.
If you are not a very skilled technical trader that understands risks and position sizing, then this market is probably not for you. This is where you will likely chew through your account trying to run longer-term setups in a very choppy market environment.
Volatility is key. Until the VIX settles back down below 12, we are going to continue to experience bigger, more volatile price rotations. Some may be as large as 2% or 3% as news hits. This is why we must understand the risks that are at play here and how to protect our assets from losses. Remember, you don’t have to be in a trade all the time in order to profit from the markets. Watch for the proper setups and wait for the proper entry point before this market chews you up and spits you out.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/30-1.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-10 10:45:332019-09-10 10:45:33Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future
This shortened holiday week has been full of crazy price rotation, political intrigue, surprise news events and, we are certain, full of headaches for some traders. Still, we managed to pull out four consistently profitable trades for our members by sticking to our proven trading systems and deploying effective position sizing techniques. Not a bad week for us at all.
Today, we are writing this research post to highlight that price is still not “out of the woods” in terms of price structure and/or price rotation. Yes, there was quite a bit of external news that drove prices higher on Thursday and Friday (BREXIT, Earnings, and China decreasing the lending rates as well as decreasing bank asset levels in an effort to prompt more lending). These news items continue to drive price action and rotation. The VIX has settled at 15.00 as of Friday – the lowest level seen since early August 2019. Our opinion is that this is just a brief pause before more chaos hits the markets.
The BREXIT news was straight out of a suspense novel. At the very last minute, a coalition of political interests changed direction in an effort to stop the NO-DEAL BREXIT that seemed to be almost a sure thing. We don’t have any more information than what is printed in the news publications, but we believe the NO-DEAL BREXIT will happen this year.
Earnings were mixed with some interesting surprises. Jobs data came in relatively strong on Friday with higher earnings and higher working hours, yet job creation levels fell a bit from expected levels.
China seems to be relaxing its bank restrictions in an effort to jump-start their local economy. We read that current debt levels are 300% of GDP in China (and that only accounts for debt that is stated in official economic data). If one were to include the shadow banking system and corporate debt/bonds, we believe it could be as high as $425% of GDP or higher.
Then we have multiple countries in crisis (risk of bankruptcy) where the IMF is likely to try to develop some type of “bailout” solution. The most recent is Argentina. Additionally, the IMF has introduced new Cryptocurrency regulations that may stifle some emerging market ICO and existing Crypto operations as the IMF attempt to get a handle on these unregulated threats to traditional currency policies.
And we are just scratching the surface so far… What next – right?
Well, here is a Weekly ES chart highlighting the Fibonacci price structure that appears to be, very much, in need of establishing fresh new highs in order to confirm this continued bullish trend. Right now, very similar to what happened in 2018, we are nearing an October date, near all-time highs, with fresh signs of weakness appearing throughout the global economy. Trade issues continue, people are talking about recessions and Gold and Silver have started an incredible upside move. Will the US stock market continue to rally from this point or rollover into a price correction?
It all depends on what happens over the next 2+ weeks and if the “capital shift” that we have continued to suggest is driving capital in the US stock market hasn’t broken rank yet. If foreign capital is continuing to pour into the US stock market for safety, then we may very well see another attempt at new all-time highs. If the recent weakness has spooked some investors out of the markets as Gold and Silver have caught their attention, then this capital shift may be much more muted at this time – meaning price volatility is much more of a concern.
SP500 Stock Index – Weekly Chart
The ES price will attempt to either move to new all-time highs or roll lower and take out the 2728 level. We believe the key to this future direction lies in which news items play out over the next 2+ weeks and if the price is able to return back to a “true price exploration” mode (without the news events).
Weekly Transportation Sector Index Chart
This weekly TRAN, Transportation Index, highlights a broader picture of why our researchers are still concerned about a market correction. The fact that the price peaks have continued to move lower as a series of lower high price peaks is very concerning.
This is indicative of a downward price trend or a trend that is consolidating lower. The strength of support near 9695 is the only real strength we see in this TRAN chart in terms of “support for an upside move”. The TRAN chart price must break this downward series of lower price peaks in order for the US markets to really enter a new bullish price trend. Until that happens, we continue to stay worried that the foundation of the US markets may be crumbling below our feet while the party rages on in the US major indexes.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Our August 19th prediction of a breakdown event has obviously been invalidated by this recent upside price move. Depending on which way price breaks out of pattern will either validate or invalidate our expected forecast. As of right now, it looks like our August 19th prediction has been invalidated and we were wrong thinking it would break down. With that said, we had three winning trades we closed out last week for solid profits and a new high water-mark for our trading portfolio.
Although, until the US stock market rotates higher to establish new all-time highs, we are not out of the woods yet. This recent upside price move has not completely invalidated the chance of a breakdown because we have not already validated “new price highs” which are required in Fibonacci price theory. Right now, we are in the midst of volatile price rotation and we are loving every minute of it.
This is the type of price action that is perfect for skilled technical traders. Trade setups continue to pour into our systems. As we stated near the top of this article, we had a series of great trades this week resulting in nearly +15% total profits for our members. If you are a skilled technical trader, then this is the market for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You Free.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/21-1.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-09 13:29:102019-09-09 13:29:10Price Structure Still Suggests We Are Within Volatile Rotation
As much as we would like to report that the US Stock market has recently cleared the future concerns of a global economic recession as well as expanded into a new growth phase, we simply can’t make that claim give the data we are seeing from our proprietary price modeling systems. Overall, this final quarter of 2019, and early into 2020, may shape up to be a very volatile period in the global markets.
Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
Recently, we posted a research post highlighting the price structure of the ES and TRAN charts that continue to suggest price weakness is still driving overall price rotation. The TRAN chart is very telling currently as it shows much more substantial price weakness in comparison to the ES, NQ, and YM charts. We believe the continued price strength is seen in the ES, NQ, and YM charts is related to the continued “Capital Shift” where foreign investors are still pouring capital into the US markets believing they are the safest and most secure investments for the future.
The divergence between our custom indicators and market analysis tools in relation to the support in the US major markets (the ES, NQ, and YM) continues to present a very interesting dynamic regarding the future expectations of true price value. Either the US major markets are overvalued in relation to price weakness shown by other factors (our custom indicators and modeling systems) or our custom indicators are undervaluing the strengths of the “capital shift” process that is taking place throughout the globe.
In our opinion, the single most important aspect of true technical analysis and price structure is that price MUST confirm a renewed upward price trend/bias before we can consider the risks of a price correction invalid. At this time, we don’t believe we are “Out Of The Woods” yet in terms of identifying this type of upside price validation – let’s take a look at some charts.
This Custom Smart Cash Index Weekly chart highlights the recent upside price swing related to the multiple news events from last week (BREXIT, China & Earnings). We can see how price briefly broke through the lower channel of historical price trends and appeared to be setting up a potential breakdown event. Yet, the news items last week resulted in a “reprieve” upside price move that pushed our Custom Smart Cash Index back into the lower channel range.
Obviously, this move does not constitute a new Bullish price trend based on the data from this chart. We have yet to break the downward price cycle, highlighted by the BLACK trend line, as well as the Price Weakness Zone, highlighted by the RED SHADED area. Ultimately, if the global markets were to break this downward price channel to the upside, then we would have some technical confirmation that a new bullish rally is really taking place. As of right now, we don’t have that type of confirmation.
This Custom Price Volatility Channel Index Weekly chart highlights another concern we have related to the future capabilities of any real upside price move. Remember to keep in mind the data from the Smart Cash Index chart as we move forward through this analysis.
The Custom Price Volatility Channel Index chart is showing that price has “recovered” back into the normal price range zone (the center green zone). In fact, the upside move last week put this Custom Volatility Index value into the upper “normal” price zone and into a “Weakness Channel” which is where early price “topping” formations typically occur. The Extreme Peaks level is where the ultimate high price top happens. The Weakness Channel is where price initially runs into the first levels of resistance and begins to become more volatile – at least recently.
We’ve highlighted a number of deeper price rotations in MAGENTA that shows what we believe may be setting up in the US/Global markets right now. In the past, we’ve witnessed these types of “brief recoveries” in the Volatility Channel Index a number of times just before a deeper price move breaks out pushing the price towards an ultimate low price rotation.
You can see the first example of this in February 2018, where a very deep low price level was reached, followed by a reprieve, then another attempt to reach new lows in April 2018 (the ultimate bottom). And again in October 2019 as the price began the downside move that ended near Christmas 2019. The initial downside move pushed the Volatility Index very near to the lower price channel levels, then a brief reprieve happened, then another deeper price move toward the ultimate low/bottom. This pattern continues even with the minor price rotation in April 2019. The initial downside move reached into the lower volatility zone pauses then rotates back into the lower zone to set up the “ultimate bottom” in early June 2019.
What will this current rotation look like if it follows the same pattern? From these current levels, it would have to collapse back into the lower price channel (possibly below it) and would attempt to setup an “ultimate price bottom” at some point in the future?
This begs the question – are we just starting a bigger breakdown event?
The VIX, S&P Volatility Index, Weekly chart continues to tighten below 20 – which is an extremely high level historically for the VIX. In the old days, just a few months back, we would consider a tight VIX somewhere below 11 or so. Now, it is below 15~20. Volatility is certainly increasing as price range and rotation have increased.
Still, our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs suggest a major inflection point is set up to happen near the end of September (the week of September 30). These price amplitude arcs are based on a combination of Fibonacci price theory and a Nikola Tesla theory called “Mechanical Resonance”. Tesla’s theory was that all things operate as energy and because of that – all things have a natural resonant frequency and amplitude level. If we are able to tune into that frequency and amplitude level, then we will be able to harness the power of that item and the associated items around it. This is because all things are related to the energy produced by surrounding items. It may be tough to understand right now – but try to think of it as the “hidden resonant frequency and amplitude of price action”. Look at the arcs on this chart and try to see how the peaks, trends, and troughs align very closely with these arc levels.
What this means is that September 30 is setting up to become a potentially big inflection point for the VIX/major markets. Prior to that time, we would expect the VIX to prepare for this inflection point by attempting to “base” near true levels.
Lastly, our Custom Metals Index Weekly chart. A number of technical conditions are setting up in this chart – first, the resistance near 68 has set up a double-top pattern. Thus, if metals continue to push higher, once this chart breaks the 68 level, we could see a very big move to the upside. Second, the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs are continuing to align with the September 30 inflection point. Therefore, we have further evidence that the end of September could become a very interesting opportunity for skilled technical traders. Lastly, we believe the upward slope highlighted by the GREEN trend line is the key support level for this Custom Metals Index. Therefore, looking for opportunities to find new Long Entries near or below this level would be ideal.
If our analysis is correct, precious metals will continue to rally well into the end of 2019 and into 2020. Timing these trades are critical. The volatility of the metals markets has increased by nearly 100% from earlier this year. This means bigger risks and bigger profits as the price range has nearly doubled in the average range. Pay attention to these opportunities as they set up and please be cautious of “loading up” because of any one trigger. This is a market where skills, risk management, position sizing and timing your trades are going to make a big difference for you.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, we believe we are not out of the woods just yet. We believe the price movement near or after September 30 will be key to understanding what will happen throughout the remainder of 2019 and into 2020. If our analysis is correct, we believe the price trend set up on or after the September 30 inflection point will prompt a very big price move in the global markets.
Play it safe right now. Don’t get over-confident in your trades and learn to manage your risks accordingly. It is very likely that we are going to see a bit of price consolidation, possibly into a Pennant/Flag formation, over the next 15+ trading days as we near the September 30 inflection point. At this point, we have to wait and watch what happens next and watch for any early warning signs across the markets (like the Transportation Index).
Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
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Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. If you want detailed trade signals complete with entry, targets and stop, join our trading newsletter today.
Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels. Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations. The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.
August 6th, 2019: NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL – DIVERGING SETUPS FOR TECHNICAL TRADERS
At that time, we wrote that we expected Crude oil to break lower from the $62 ppb level and target $55, then $49 based on our original Crude Oil research from May 21, 2019.
Additionally, on July 29, 2019, we authored and posted this article suggesting that Crude Oil would begin a downside move from $55 to levels near $50 :
All of this research was related to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) research post from July 10, 2019: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/predictive-modeling-suggest-oil-headed-much-lower-by-early-2020/
This incredible predictive modeling research suggested that Oil would move dramatically lower towards the $50 level, then stall near $50 to $55+ through September and October. Ultimately breaking lower in late October/November to levels near or below $40.
Crude Oil Daily Chart Analysis
Our researchers believe Crude Oil could become very volatile as price nears the apex of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up. This Daily chart highlights the attempted “scouting party” price rotation above the price resistance channel. The news over the past holiday weekend suggests the global economy may not see any real bump in activity over the next 12+ months and we believe this aligns with our longer-term research that Oil should target the sub $40 price level before the end of 2019 and potentially fall to levels below $30 in early 2020.
Crude Oil Weekly Chart Analysis
We believe the key to all of this price rotation is the $50.50 level and what price does over the next 30 to 60+ days. There is a potential that price may attempt a brief upside move over this span of time, but the true intent of price is to move lower based on our ADL price modeling system. Therefore, we believe the downside potential is the most opportunistic for traders. The next price target based on our Fibonacci bearish price trigger level is the $45 price range.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This move could take place quickly, over the next 2 to 3 weeks on a breakdown move, or over many months. Watch the $50.50 level as that is the key. If the price falls to any level below $50.50, then we could be moving towards the $45 level or even the $40 on a big move related to global economic expectations. Otherwise, expect the price to move towards the $50.50 level over the next few weeks as this support level is key to all future moves.
As we wait for the next leg to start to move prices lower, pay attention to any upside price activity as that may present a very clear entry point for skilled technical traders.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world. But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next. With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside. Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.
This Three-Hour British Pound Chart highlights the dramatic price reversal that took place late yesterday (after markets) and resulted in a news-driven price move that was unexpected. The way these types of new events can come out of nowhere to dramatically alter price direction and trend is something that all traders have to deal with. For a technical trader, these events, thankfully, don’t happen all that often. But when they do happen, we have to readjust our understanding of the markets and dynamics that are taking place throughout the global financial environment and follow the money and potentially new trends against our current analysis.
With the news that the BREXIT is on hold right now and is being blocked by a certain segment in the UK Parliament, how will that result in new dynamics and opportunities for us to take advantage of and profit from? Obviously, currencies will continue to move until price levels settle near proper expectations – same thing with the global stock markets. It is very likely that the US Indexes (ES, NQ, YM, and others) may attempt to move back towards recent highs if the fear and uncertainty of the BREXIT deal warranted that much pricing pressures in the markets?
Overall, when events like this happen, it is often the best decision not to try to chase them right away. These are reactionary price moves related to news events – almost like a shock-wave which I explain this breakout on the chart is this video analysis. They are here now, they move the market and they appear dramatic, but they are typically over as fast as they started.
This US Dollar chart highlights the downward price rotation that was likely prompted by the BREXIT news last night and may continue as the markets revalue “fear and uncertainty” over the next few days. It is very likely that true price levels will be established over the next 7 to 10 days as the continued repositioning of assets results because of the change in BREXIT expectations from within the UK.
We need to stay dynamic in how we address these types of market moves and the risks that are persistent. We can’t know what is going to happen in the governments and governing bodies of the world. As technical traders, our job is to use our tools and resources to find the best opportunities and to take advantage of them when risks are manageable. We flip directions as the markets flip directions. All we want the markets to move up or down because this provides opportunities for us to profit.
This Dow Jones Industrial Daily Chart highlights just how dramatic the upside move is today and how price is still below the recent highs set near 27,400. Our August 19th Breakdown prediction is currently invalid based on this upside price move. We did see a big move lower in early August, but we never saw the continued downside move that we expected. The cycles were predicting this move would happen, but the global market dynamics (news and other items) have altered the current market perspective. Must like QE events and other major global events, just because technical analysis or cycles suggest one thing will happen, if there is enough pressure from outside forces to move the markets one direction, then markets will typically relent to that pressure and move into the “path of least resistance”. Right now, that path is upward.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
We took a series of great profitable trades over the past 4+ weeks while the stock market traded sideways. This week we closed out three winning trades 3%, 6.5%, and 9.88% while most others lost money. As technical traders, our only objective is to protect our assets, find great trades, generate profits and avoid unwanted risks. We are doing exactly that by managing our position sizes, executing smart trades, creating profits for our members and continuing to seek out the best opportunities in the future.
Let this news event play out over the next few days. Let the markets figure out where price wants to go after all the dust settles. There will be lots of opportunities for more great trades in the future.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH SUBSCRIPTION!
Chris Vermeulen – *
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/82.png547850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-05 14:46:332019-09-05 14:46:33Surprise decision in the UK to thwart a No-Deal Brexit changed the dynamics of the markets.
Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to take a look at the precious metals market and assess the other markets that need to be noted. We start with the USD and the recent relationship between the two. Next is the action in silver and platinum as they are playing catch up. Finally, we look at the US markets and the potential of a breakout higher or breakdown and how each of these would impact the PMs. Be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
I believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Chris-and-Other-Guy.png220266adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-05 12:30:152019-09-05 12:30:15BIG PICTURE LOOK AT WHAT IS DRIVING GOLD
