Archive for month: October, 2019
I mentioned this already so just ignore if you are not interested, but just a reminder that you registered to get my weekly free analysis, you have likely read my articles or watched the analysis videos which we have been nailing nearly every market move this year, but for some reason, you stopped?
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It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork. Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.
Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1450 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation. And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.
GOLD FORECAST & IS THE DEBT CRISIS ABOUT TO BE REBORN IN 2020?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020/
GOLD CYCLE FORECAST – DAILY CHART
Take a look at the most active cycles for gold and where our gold forecast is pointing to next. The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most. This new momentum base should setup and complete once the gold cycles bottom. The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.
GOLD MINERS SELL OFF – DAILY CHART
Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.
HAVE YOU OUTPERFORMED GDXJ THIS YEAR?
If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?
Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.
Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.
My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.
Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance. The next bottom in metals should set up when our cycle bottoms – then the next upside leg will begin. This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24. This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
News, again, drives the US stock market and major indexes higher as optimism of a US/China trade agreement floods the news wires. As we’ve been suggesting, the global markets continue to be news-driven and are seeking any positive news related to easing trade tensions and capital markets. We believe any US/China trade deal would be received as very positive news by the global capital markets – yet we understand the process of achieving the components of the “deal” would likely still be 6 to 24 months away.
Still, with the strength of the US economy and the potential that some deal could be reached before the end of 2019 setting positive expectations, the US stock market and major indexes rallied last Thursday and Friday (October 10 and 11). As the long holiday weekend sets up with no trading on Monday, it will be interesting to see what is potentially resolved between President Trump and the Chinese before the markets start to react on Sunday and Monday nights. Make sure up opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
Our research team wanted to highlight some very key elements related to technical price theory and technical analysis. These weekly charts highlight what we believe is “key resistance” in the US major indexes and share our research team’s concern that the markets may be reacting to news more than relying on fundamental economic and earnings valuations. In past articles, we’ve highlighted how a “capital shift” is continuing to take place where foreign capital is actively seeking safety and security for future returns. This leads to a shift in how capital is being deployed throughout the globe.
The current price channels in these Weekly charts highlight two key facets of the current market setup. Either the US stock market will attempt to rally above this lower yellow price channel and attempt to regain strength between the two yellow price channels, or it will fail near the current price level and attempt to identify new support somewhere below the current price rotation ranges.
Just a few days ago, we posted this research article to alert traders of the Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in the US markets …
October 7, 2019: US STOCK MARKETS TRADE SIDEWAYS – WAITING ON NEWS/GUIDANCE
NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART
With the holiday weekend upon us, we believe the news and economic data will continue to drive the market’s future moves and that volatility will continue to increase.
This Weekly ES chart highlights a similar setup, yet one key fact must be understood. Price has already fallen away from the lower YELLOW price channel level and established a “lower high” price rotation recently. Any price rally failure near this level may prompt a very big downside move. The price must continue to rally above 3100 is price makes any attempt at further gains.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
We believe skilled technical traders have already digested and are well aware of the risks that are present in the current market environment. We’ve been urging our followers to stay mostly in cash and to consider very strategic, expertly timed, investments when price trends are relatively secure.
This is not a speculative market any longer – this is a very volatile and uncertain market that is currently resting as major resistance levels. Don’t get overly aggressive at this point. It is better for the markets to tell us what it wants to do. Lower risk, lower chance of disaster and live to trade another day – these should be hammered into the heads of traders at this stage of the markets.
Our morning coffee video analysis recap is the one thing… that single investment that’s going to turn into the greatest investment you’ve ever made for your trading.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. My simple technical trading strategy using ETFs will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it so you never get caught on the wrong side of the market with big losses.
Chris Vermeulen
Subscribe Today – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.
Positive expectations related to the US/China trades negotiations on October 10th prompted a moderately strong upside move in the US major indexes and the stock market.
Additionally, the precious metals fell in correlation to the upside move in the US stock market and presented another opportunity for skilled technical traders to look for entries below $1500 in Gold and below $17.75 in Silver.
We can’t stress the importance of this critical $1500 price level in Gold as a key level for all traders to watch. It has continued to provide key support for Gold since the price rally that initiated in late April 2019. We believe this level will act as a relatively strong price “floor” going forward and any price activity below $1500 could represent a very opportunistic entry area for skilled traders.
Back in early September, we authored this research post highlighting what we believed would happen going forward 30 to 60+ days for Gold. At that time, the price of Gold has just rallied above $1500 for the first time in 2019.
We alerted our followers that we believed Gold would stall near the $1550 level, move briefly towards the $1475 to $1500 level, set up a new momentum base near the $1500 price level and begin a new rally soon after this base was complete. You can read this research post here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/global-market-chaos-means-precious-metals-will-continue-to-rise/ .
GOLD WEEKLY CHART FROM OUR SEPTEMBER 2ND RESEARCH POST
This is a Gold Weekly chart from that September 2 research post. We still believe our research from that post is accurate and we believe this new move below $1500 is an incredible opportunity for skilled traders that understand the real potential of the future of precious metals.
120 MINUTE GOLD CHART SHOWING PRICE CORRECTION WARNING BEFORE IT HAPPENED
This 120 Minute Gold chart showing the early price decline on October 10, 2019 and highlighting the $1500 price support zone in RED illustrates how price has continued to find this level acting as strong support and how price has, in the past, moved through this level and back above it to form the new “momentum base/bottom” near October 1, 2019.
We believe any move below $1500 (or more precisely – $1495) is a very strong entry point. Obviously, a price move to lower levels would be even better. Currently, as long as price stays above the Momentum Base level (near $1463), then we consider the October 1 price rotation the true momentum base “low”.
CURRENT DAILY CHART OF GOLD – SUPPORT ZONE, AND FORECAST
This Daily chart highlights the same $1500 price support zone and clearly illustrates why we believe any price move below $1500 is a very strong opportunity for skilled traders. The next leg in Gold should push prices above $1700 (possibly higher). Longer-term, we believe the fear and uncertainty in the global markets will not subside until well after the 2020 US Presidential election cycle completes.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Therefore, we have at least 12 to 16+ months of continued fear driving investor uncertainty in precious metals and as the US political chaos heats up, so will precious metals. At this point, we believe Gold has just started to “lift-off” in terms of the ultimate upside potential over the longer term. We’ve discussed the potential of Gold reaching above $3750 and we believe this target level is very valid.
Yesterday I talked about how to trade and where gold, silver and miners were within their bul/bear market cycle which may surprise you. Listen to my thoughts in this Podcast here.
Play these moves accordingly. This may be the last time you see Gold trading below $1500 for quite a while.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.
Palisade Radio talks with Chris as he discusses his approach to trading and why technical analysis works for him. He focuses on the chart and price action and explains why investors need to follow a trading strategy that suits their personality.
He cautions that a broad sell-off is likely when stocks move into the next bear market. This liquidation will pull everything down, including gold, for a time. Afterward, he anticipates a massive rally in the juniors.
Time Stamp References:
0:40 – Chris’s early career.
3:25 – What led him to technical analysis.
5:30 – Stage Analysis and market trends.
8:15 – Why investors need a strategy.
13:40 – Indicators for market timing.
17:20 – Avoid too much information.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our web site to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.
Many online brokers are cutting their trading commissions to zero. There are ways to benefit from this beyond just zero commissions. It is now better than ever to buy individual stocks as opposed to ETF’s when investing in a sector. I talk about this topic and then interview Chris Vermeulen who runs thetechnicaltraders.com to get his take on the current trends of the markets.