We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger. Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance. In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs. Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted. In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again. At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows. Guess what happened? The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.
We’ve recently called the precious metals move perfectly with our originating research being done in October 2018. We called the Oil downturn in 2018 as well as the rally starting near December 2018. Now, we are going to share with you some incredible market insights and help you prepare for what will likely become the most frustrating next six months of trading for everyone.
Why is it going to be frustrating? Because everyone has already made up their minds as to what they expect to happen in the markets and WHY. We read a report today from an analyst that suggested he “moved into a defensive position and initiated positions in Inverse ETFs and Put Options”. Probably a smart move if he timed it right. What he’s going to do over the next 6 months will either make him a king or a pauper.
The fact is that the US stock market has initiated a very moderate downside price rotation recently and multiple levels of support must be breached before we could consider any of the recent downside pricing pressure as a “major trend reversal”. We believe many of these analysts are hyperventilating with regards to this move and seeing what they want to see from it – THE BEAR MARKET.
At this time, we do not agree with this narrative. Yes, the US stock market is under pricing pressure. The US/China trade deal is far from completed and the new US/Mexico tariffs are sure to roil the markets. Europe has just completed EU elections and must continue to navigate the hard questions of future management and opportunity with a BREXIT hanging over everyone’s heads. The Prime Minister of Malaysia is calling for a new “gold backed SE Asian currency” to help prevent the wild currency valuations as Malaysia saw in the mid-1990s. The US Presidential election cycle is just 15 months away and it is sure to be a blood-bath in some ways.
Could it be the start of the bear market?? Maybe, but our research suggests otherwise.
Our research suggests there is still another chance that the US stock market could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again. Be cautious about how we stated this… “could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again” does not mean “rally beyond recent highs” or “another leg to the upside will take place”. It means that we believe the current support will prompt a brief price rally back to “near all-time highs” before the end of August 2019.
This Weekly ES chart highlights the support levels we are watching and the peak zone near $2961. We believe the current support levels will attempt to provide a floor for price above $2630 and will prompt an upside price channel that will likely see price climb higher from recent lows.
The bottom line here for the broad stock market is that we should see bounce over the next couple weeks, then we follow the market higher with a big rally or short a collapse in price.
This chart is a little noisy with analysis and our custom indicator lines but it shows key analysis levels. The same type of setup is also taking place in the NQ – although we believe the NQ may have a bit further downside price risk than the ES or YM at the moment. We believe the support levels near $6800 and $6400 will act as a price floor and attempt to drive price moderately higher over the next 25 to 45 days. We believe the NQ will come under increased price pressure because of a capital rotation away from risk in Technology and future risk factors.
The YM is setting up very similar to the ES. Very clear support and the current price level is still relatively bullish compared to the two most recent bigger downside price moves. The idea that analysts could call this “The Big One” with little to know price confirmation is very confusing. We believe support above $23,400 will likely hold and price will begin a moderate upside price move (within a channel/pennant formation) over the next 25 to 40+ days in the YM.
One very clear exception to this analysis would be a very clear price breakdown below the lowest support level while attempting to target the December 2018 lows. Should this happen over the next 30 to 60 days without any sign of the support rotation and upward price channel we are expecting, then we would consider this analysis to have failed and we could be looking at a much bigger downside price move in the US stock markets. At this point, we don’t believe this will happen UNLESS some massive US or foreign crisis event unfolds over the next 30 to 60+ days.
We believe a shift in the “Capital Shift” process we have been discussing for the past 2+ years is still taking place. This is a “risk off” move prompted by a renewed FEAR level and currency price trends over the past 6+ months.
This currency chart clearly shows everyone is selling their currency and moving into what they believe is the safest currency which is the USD.
We believe Capital Shift process will go through a weakening process while fear drives investors out of high performing assets. This process will likely shift back towards searching for undervalued US equities as global investors seek new opportunities after these support levels prompt a base. The hunt to find returns will eventually lead everyone back into the US stock market as there is too much turmoil in the global markets currently.
If you missed this move, sit back and wait for these support levels to settle and then look for new trade opportunities. There will be lots of time to get into the BIG SHORT TRADE when it finally sets up and confirms.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/9.png5871003adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-04 12:20:202019-06-04 12:20:20Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected
We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks. Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend. This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough. The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.
We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past. We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history. These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.
This first example is the ES (E-Mini S&P Futures). You can see from this chart the earlier examples of the 100% Fibonacci price legs working in the October 2018 downward price move. The current downward price legs have set up a perfect 100% Fibonacci price expansion leg and we believe support may form near $2732.
We would normally wait for some type of price confirmation that this level is going to act as support – for example, a solid reversal bar or Japanese Candlestick price pattern. After confirmation is achieved, a price rotation equal to 60% to 95% of the last downward price leg can be expected.
This next example shows Crude Oil and the most recent downward two Fibonacci Price Legs. The first resulted in a very quick upside price rotation (highlighted by the green arrow near May 20). The second downside Fibonacci Price Leg just ended near $53.30.
It is our belief that Oil will find support near this $53.30 level and rally back above $56 from these lows. The only thing we are waiting for is some type of technical price confirmation of this bottom setup and we can expect a 4% to 8% upside price swing in Crude Oil.
Over the past 21+ months, we’ve highlighted some of the best tools and techniques we use to find great trading signals. This one technique, the Fibonacci 100% Price Expansion Leg, is just one of the tools we use to find trades and targets for our trade alerts for members.
The more one understands how price works and how the markets operate as a Symphony of price actions, one can find opportunities for great trades almost all the time. Skill and experience make the difference when deciding when to trade and what to trade and that’s what we provide.
More eye opening charts on currencies and gold here
We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade. We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks. Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point. A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/6.png623888adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-03 20:42:582019-06-03 20:47:25Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Equities
Our research team believes Silver could be the Sleeper Rally setup of a lifetime for investors if the global economic cards continue to get scattered and crumpled over the next 10+ years. The recent rally in Gold got a lot of attention last Friday (the end of May 2019). We had been warning about this move for the past 8+ months and generated an incredible research post in early October 2018 that clearly highlighted our belief that Gold would peak above $1300 early in 2019, then stall and move toward $1270 near April/May 2019, then begin an incredible upside price rally in June/July/Aug 2019. We couldn’t have been more clear about this prediction and we posted it publically in October 2018. See This Previous Gold Forecast Snapshot
Now, our research team is going to share with you some incredible insights into what may become the most incredible trade setup we’ve seen in the past 12+ years – the Sleeper Silver Setup.
Going all the way back to the early 1970s, when the Hunt Brothers ran most of the metals markets, we can see the incredible price rally in Silver from $1.28 per ounce to nearly $41.50 in late 1979. This move setup with a very simple pattern – a high price breakout in 1973 that broke a sideways price channel and initiated a nearly 6+ year rally resulting in an incredible 3142% price increase from the lows.
Could it happen again?
Well, after this incredible price peak, the price of Silver languished and moved lower, eventually bottoming in 1991 near $3.50. After that bottom setup, the price of Silver setup another sideways price channel and traded within this range until a 2004 High Price Breakout happened AGAIN. It seemed inconsequential at the time – a rogue high price near $8.50. Maybe that was it and maybe price would just rotate lower back to near the $4.00 range??
This High Price Breakout setup an incredible price rally that resulted in a continue price advance over the same 6+ year span of time. This rally was not as big as the 1974 to 1979 price rally in percentage terms, but it was much bigger in terms of price valuation. The 1979 price peak ended at $41.50 and resulted in a $40.25 price increase whereas the 2011 price peak resulted in a $46.32 price increase.
Will it happen again in our lifetime?
As incredible as it might seem, we believe Silver is setting up another High Price Breakout pattern that should conclude within the next 2 to 4 months with a price high near $22.50 to $24.00 (see our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling projections below). After this peak is reached, hold on to your hat because we believe the upside price rally could mimic past rallies and attempt to immediately move the price of Silver to well above $85 per ounce. Ultimately, we can only guess as to where the top of this move may end – but we can safely estimate it will likely top somewhere between $90 and $550. This, of course, will require some type of major bear market is other asset classes and possibly some global crisis but we believe it is very possible in due time. Our predictive modeling systems will help us determine where the actual price peak will be as this unfolds over time.
And there you have it – one of the most incredible trade setups you’ll ever see in your lifetime. Yes, it may happen twice in your life or more, but we believe this setup in Silver is just weeks or months from initiating the next upside price leg (the High Price Breakout) and we are alerting you now to be prepared.
UNIQUE PHYSICAL SILVER OPPORTUNITY:
We should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members was a quick 3.11% winner. Our VIX ETF trade also hit our 25% profit target within a few days of entry.
Now, I have a few silver rounds here at my desk I am going to give away and ship out to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have few silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Chris Vermeulen
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/4.png368700adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-03 13:44:352019-06-03 13:44:35Is Silver The Sleeper Rally Setup Of A Lifetime?
We’ve been trying to alert all of our followers of the setup in precious metals for well over 6 months. Here is our research post from February 6, 2019 (nearly 4 months ago) that highlights our prediction of an April 21~24 momentum base and our earlier calls predicting a move above $1300, then a stall and move lower towards the base in April, then the next leg higher.
2018 and thus far in 2019 has been good but great is just around the corner!
The tech guys and I have been testing, debugging our new Trading Application to bring online so we can all benefit from more timely analysis/trades with instant email and sms alerts every time a new trade, target or stop is reached. This has been a process to get it to this stage but it looks like its ready to come online next week for phase one which is the live portfolio and instant alerts.
Phase II will be our SP500 index trend color-coded charts with momentum, swing, and trend trade signals, and many more phases to follow as we build out the best active traders tools to follow and trade the market with ease. I’m building exactly what I want and need for more steady monthly income and I know you will love it!
SP500 Trend Analysis Complete with:
Momentum 1-3 Day Trades
Swing Trades 3-20 Day Trades
Trend Position
Recent SP500 Oversold Momentum 2 Day Trade
Sneak Peak at Live Portfolio/Chart/Alert Dashboard
This auto-updating portfolio page allows provides all the trading information you need on each position we take. You can click to see a chart of each stock or ETF we own, and this also automatically sends you instant SMS and email alerts when a new trade, target or stop has been reached. This dashboard is the foundation and Phase One of many new great trading indicators and trades over the next several months.
If you wanna join now before we raise rates and get grandfathered in be sure to join now because once we go live with this added value we will be raising our subscription prices.
EDIT: September, 26, 2019. New Terms and Conditions are in effect. Grandfathered rates may no longer apply. Please read the Terms and Conditions available on the sign-up page of www.thetechnicaltraders.com.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/35.png539895adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-06-01 00:03:042019-10-01 06:44:38My Dream Trading Tools Are Almost Automated!
