US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation

As we’ve been warning over the past few weeks and months, the current price rotation in the US stock market is very much related to the strength of the US Dollar and the continued Capital Shift that is taking place as trade issues and currency valuations drive investors into the US equity and debt markets as protection against risk.  We talk about some of these new Super-Cycles starting and how we can take advantage of them in this new guide. The US Dollar stalled today after a recent price decline from just above $98 to a current level near $96.60.  Over the past 15+ months, the US Dollar has risen from lows near $88 to highs near $98 – an 11.2% price rally.  Meanwhile, many other foreign currencies have collapsed over this same span of time.
We believe the continued Capital Shift is driving further investment in the US stock market and debt market as a way to avoid the risks of further currency valuation declines and as a means of protecting wealth.  Until this currency dynamic changes, we expect the strength of the US economy and US Dollar to continue to push investors into the US equity markets. This being said, a very interesting dynamic is starting to set up.  Gold and Silver have started to move higher while Oil, Natural Gas and other commodities are pushing lower.  This type of activity in the commodity markets suggests some increased fear is driving investors away from speculating on increased global economic activities and pushing capital into expectations of a market top or deeper correction. We’ve read recently where institutional traders have started initiating heavy short positions in the US markets and we believe these investors have jumped the gun a bit.  We don’t see how or where a massive US market collapse is likely given the current strength in the US Dollar and the US economy.  Yes, at some point this dynamic may shift and at some point, we may see a fairly deep correction of 12% to 18%.  We believe that a top may happen in August or September 2019 – after the US stock market (DOW) reaches new all-time highs above $30k. Right now, we believe the first rotation of our expected Pennant/Flag formation is starting to set up and we look for early signs in the DOW and TRAN charts. This TRAN chart shows price rotation near the CYAN resistance level originating from the late April peak and spanning the early May price high.  We believe this resistance level may play a key role in understanding how and when the next upside price leg begins to advance.  We expect a downside price rotation to take place pushing the TRAN towards the $9600 level over the next few days/weeks.
This YM chart highlights a similar price pattern, but clearly illustrates one key difference – the New Price High.  This fundamental element of Fibonacci price theory is that any attempt to break a past critical price high which results in a “new price high” designates the current trend as Bullish.  Within Fibonacci price theory, price is always seeking to establish new price highs or new price lows – AT ALL TIMES.  Therefore, a new price high or new price low is very significant. The TRAN chart may continue to consolidate below the CYAN resistance level whereas the YM chart may attempt to push higher, with a bullish bias, setting up a Pennant/Flag formation as we expect.  This would indicate that even though economic and transportation expectations are waning, the bullish bias in the YM suggests the Capital Shift factor is still pushing the US stock market upward.
Pay close attention to that big blue ellipse near the top of the chart.  We drew that in place many months ago as an indicator of where we believe critical resistance is should the markets attempt to push higher and attempt new all-time highs. We still believe this resistance is valid and as price rotates into the Pennant/Flag formation, we’ll extend this resistance forward – carrying the same slope and angle forward.  If the YM is going to attempt a move to above $30k before our expected August/September 2019 top setup, it will have to push well above this resistance zone to accomplish this move. Watch Gold and Silver over the next 3 to 4 weeks as any perceived weakness will push the precious metals higher still.  We believe Gold will reach $1450 this summer and possibly higher before August as smart money rotates into the safe havens in anticipation of a bear market. If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us! Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR US MARKETS WHICH IMPACT ALL THE OTHER MARKETS

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me for a look at the energy sector, metals, and US markets. He points out that the US markets, as well as the metals, are at very important levels. Over the next few trading days, a decision will need to be made by the US markets which Chris thinks could be lower.
Click here to visit The Technical Traders website and follow along with what Chris is trading. In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Market Top Pattern Should Form

We have been pouring over the data and currently believe our earlier prediction of a July/August 2019 market top should be revised to an Aug/Sept 2019 expected market top pattern.  The following research posts we authored recently suggested a top may form in July/Aug 2019 and believe this critical top formation would form at new all-time highs.  We still believe this is possible regarding the price predictions, yet we believe the price top will now form near the end of August or early September after an extended Pennant/Flag formation is completed. Please review the following research posts by our team… June 5, 2019: Fear Drives market Expectations: HERE May 14, 2019: Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends, Part II: HERE March 31, 2019: Proprietary Cycles Predict July Turning Point For Stock Market: HERE Using our proprietary price modeling tools and systems, believe the critical price peak in the US stock market will now happen between August 26 and September 20 (see the chart below).  A number of key factors are lining up to extend this topping pattern into August/September and the key component is the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation and the fact that this price pattern must complete before a breakout/breakdown move is possible. An upside price bias will continue throughout the formation of the Pennant/Flag formation leading to a moderate price breakout where the S&P will briefly break through the $3000 price level, then stall – forming the Top pattern/rotation we are expecting.
A continued Capital Shift will drive prices higher over the next 45 to 60+ days where foreign capital will continue to chase the strong US Dollar and the strength of the US stock market.  The true critical price move, where our analysis will become even more important, happens after September 1, 2019 – where the Pennant Apex and a critical inflection point are set. On June 5, 2019, we posted this VIX chart in the article listed above.  The US stock market will rotate higher in an upward price bias over the next 45+ days.  This will project the Pennant/Flag formation and set up the critical top pattern that we are expecting in late August or early September.  When you look at this chart of the VIX, below, consider that the upside price move in the VIX may be delayed by about 10 to 15 days based on our newest analysis.  We still believe the VIX expansion will happen as we are suggesting, we are altering the timeline of these predictions to support our newest research.
As we move closer to these critical dates, we’ll keep you informed of our expectations and what new information our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  In the meantime, get ready to play some moderate price swings.  Don’t get caught on the short side of this move just yet.  We have no real confirmation that a large downside move will take place over the next 60+ days and these early shorts are going to feel a lot of pressure over the next 45 to 60+ days if the market moves higher. This is one scenario of how the stock market may play out, we have a few others we are following with subscribers to our Wealth Building Newsletter with much more detail. Each day we share a pre-market video and show you where all the major markets are headed for the day, week and month ahead. The analysis is done on the futures market but we focus on trading ETFs for the indexes and commodities. In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

This weeks Gold, Silver, Oil, and SPX Price Forecast

In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us! Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone

After an incredible rally in Natural Gas that our researchers called perfectly in November 2018, another opportunity for an upside price move appears to be setting up for later this year. We believe the current price lows, near $2.30, are setting up for a bounce and then will drop and form a basing pattern near $2.00 before rocketing higher.  It is this last move to the downside which will set up the incredibly deep price base and oversold conditions for the upside price move in late August/September 2019. We’re issuing this research post to alert all of our followers to our research and to allow for proper price rotation for this base to set up and conclude before jumping into any false triggers that may occur on the Daily or Weekly charts. Start by taking a look at this Monthly NG chart showing how extended high price peaks are usually followed by extended price declines.  It is very unlikely that any upside price move will begin before late August or early September 2019. In fact, our data mining utilities confirm this by suggesting that June, July, and August are all typically lower price months by a factor of 1.5:1 and 2:1 mostly over the past 24 years. September is the first monthly data point to break this cycle with a positive historical price bias of nearly 9:1. Therefore, the closer we get to September 2019, the more likely we are going to see a basing in price near $2.00 (or below) and traders would be wise to prepare for this move before it happens.
Our Weekly Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a moderate move upward of about $0.25 is likely over the next few weeks before price may rotate lower, again, and attempt to fall below the $2.25 level as it continues to rotate towards the ultimate base. Our researchers believe the ultimate price base will be near $2.00 (roughly between $1.85 and $2.15) as our Weekly Fibonacci modeling tool is suggesting.  After price establishes the new price peak in late June, we’ll have more data to compare for the proper location of the ultimate price base.
This Daily chart highlights our expectations for NG over the next few weeks – fairly strong potential for a move higher, above $2.50, where the price will stall and reverse back to the downside.  Ultimately, this peak will turn out to be nothing more than required price rotation to support the ultimate base pattern setup later in August or September 2019.
Don’t get too excited about Natural Gas just yet.  The setup and future trade are in the process of creating a deep price base that will likely end near late August or early September 2019.  We believe September 2019 will be the breakout month for NG as a price advance really takes hold.  If historical data is any guide, the 9:1 upside bias of September following the 1.4:1 downside bias of August suggests that the September upside price move could push NG prices well above $3.50 or $4.00 very quickly. If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us! Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

US Markets Rally Hard – Could Another Big Upside Leg Begin?

Closing out the first week in June 2019, the US stock market rallied hard from recent lows and prompted many traders/investors to rethink their future plans.  At the same time, Gold and Silver began a decent price rally of their own while Oil found support just above $50.  It certainly has been an interesting week for traders.  One that was full of incredible opportunity as many symbols rotated 6 to 12% or more over the past 10+ days. The fact that Oil is finding support above $50 while Gold and Silver continue to rally suggests that fear may be entering the metals market while Oil may have found a temporary price bottom near $50 to $51.  Weakness in the US Dollar is also helping both Oil and Metals to push higher.  Our recent research suggests that the US Dollar will find support near $95 indicates the US Dollar may fall a bit further – pushing Oil and Metals a bit higher. The strength in the US stock market near the end of the week suggests fear of any US collapse or future economic concerns appears to be abated.  It is very unlikely the US major indexes would rally as they have on any extreme fear of any major US calamity or economic concerns.  A slightly weakening US Dollar and moderately strong US economic data continues to suggest the US stock market may continue to be the repository of funds for foreign investors for many years to come – or until something dramatic changes in the US. It is rather simple to understand the capital process that is at work in the global economy at the moment; until foreign market valuations and expectations appear to be opportunistic for future returns, the US Dollar and the US stock market are the most likely targets for foreign investment and safety.  Weakening currencies, weakening global economies and weakening commodity prices will push capital away from foreign markets and into safety.  Safety will be found in the US markets, precious metals and possibly Crypto currencies.  Anything that avoids deflationary risks and credit/debt risks. This YM Weekly chart highlighting our Fibonacci price modeling system shows how dramatic the upside price reversal was by the end of last week.  The closing candles created an Engulfing Bullish candlestick pattern which is typically quite bullish.  The fact that price closed above the GREEN Fibonacci trigger level is further indication that a renewed price rally may begin soon.  Support near $24,000 appears to be quite strong and any further downside price risk must first break this level.  As long as support holds and price continues an upside bias, there is a very strong potential for a move to above $28,000 in the works.
This NQ chart highlights a similar price pattern and suggests the NQ needs to climb above $7600 before a true rally can begin.  Ultimately, the upside targets for this move are near $8500 or higher based on current price rotation.  Support near $6800 is critical – so price must stay above this level for any future rally to continue.
We authored a VIX/Volatility article just a few days ago that highlighted our believe that the VIX would trade lower, within a sideways price channel till near the end of July or August 2019 – then begin another VIX Spike move upward.  This coincides with the current research we are seeing where the US stock market will likely continue to push higher, very possibly setting new all-time highs again, before any real risk of any downside price collapse happens. Follow our research and don’t miss these opportunities.  We’ve been warning our followers for months that 2019 and 2020 are going to be incredible years for skilled traders.  These recent 10 to 20% moves in Gold, Silver, Oil and many ETFs are just the beginning.  Our research team and trading team are ready to help you find and execute for better success. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

ADL Predictive Modeling Suggests A Big Move In Silver

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is suggesting that Silver is currently well below the projected ADL price level.  We believe the current pricing pressure in Silver is related to global central banks attempt to regulate precious metals prices over the past 24+ months.  We believe the upside move in Gold will eventually roll into Silver and the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver is currently 34% undervalued. Our ADL predictive modeling system is capable of identifying highly probable price outcomes in the future by tracking and mapping historically accurate similar price DNA patterns.  The chart below shows exactly why we believe Silver is setting up an ADL price anomaly where a big upside price reversion should take place over the next 30 to 90 days. It is difficult to attain an exact date for the reversion move, yet we know that the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting Silver should be trading above $17 right now.  Over the next 4+ weeks, the ADL suggests price should be above $18.  The current price, near $13.95, is well below these ADL predicted levels.  Thus, we believe a price reversion process will take place to drive the price of Silver upward toward the ADL predicted levels.
Now, if you take a look at our Silver Cycle Momentum chart below you can see that the current price of silver is just starting what looks like a new uptrend.
We believe the current upside price move in Silver is just the beginning.  This may, very well, be the last time we’ll see sub $14 levels for quite a while in Silver.  We believe skilled traders should be taking advantage of these historically low levels right away to prepare for the upside price move. Keep in mind the market does not move straight up and while I am bullish this me not be the exact time to by silver. Become a technical trader by watching my daily analysis video each and every morning before the opening bell, and take the same trades I do with my trade alerts at the Wealth Building Newsletter. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019?

We asked our researchers a question recently, “Could Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?”.  We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels.  We wanted to hear what they thought it would take for a move like this to happen and if they could support their conclusions with factual conjecture. Now we ask you to review these findings and ask yourself the same question.  What would it take for Gold to rally above $3750 (over 200% from current levels) and why do you believe it is possible? Our research team came to two primary conclusions in support of a Gold price move above $3750 : A)   The US Presidential election cycle/political environment could prompt a vicious global economic contraction cycle of fear and protectionist consumer and corporate activity that propels the global economy into a deflationary (mini-crisis) event. B)   The global trade wars could complicated item A (the US Presidential election cycle) and create an accelerating component to this global political event.  The result is the mini-crisis could turn into “ a bit more” than a mini-crisis if the global trade wars prompt further economic contraction and disrupt global economic activities further. Our research team suggested the following as key elements to watch out for in terms of “setting up the perfect storm” in the global markets. A)  The US Dollar falls below $94 and continues to push a bit lower.  This would show signs that the US Dollar is losing strength around the world B)  The Transportation Index falls below $4350 and begins a bigger breakdown in price trend – targeting the $3000 level.  This would indicate that global trade and transportation is collapsing back to 2007-08 levels. C)  Oil collapses below $45 would be a certain sign that global Oil demand has completely collapsed and the sub-$40 level would very quickly come into perspective as a target. D)  Global Financial stability is threatened by Debt/Credit issues while any of the above are taking place.  Should any of the A, B or C items begin to take form over the next few weeks or months while some type of extended debt or credit crisis event is unfolding, it would add a tremendous increase of fear into the metals markets. Our researchers believe the US Dollar is safe above the $91 level throughout the end of 2019 and that any downside risk to the US Dollar would come in brief price rotations as deflationary aspects of the global economy are identified. In other words, at this time, we don’t believe the US Dollar will come under any severe downside pricing pressures throughout the end of 2019.  We do believe a downside price move in the US Dollar may be setting up between now and early July 2019, but we strongly believe the $91 to $93 level is strong support for the long term.
The Gold Spot price / the US Dollar price chart highlights the incredible upside price move in Gold after 2001-02.  It was almost a perfect storm of events that took place after this time to prompt a move like this to the upside.  Not only did we have multiple US based economic crisis events, we also had a series of global economic “shifts” taking place where capital and assets were migrating all across the globe searching for superior returns.  Could this happen again??  Of course it could.  Although, we believe the next move in precious metals will be met with a completely different set of circumstances – very likely targeting foreign nations and not the US economy.
This SPDR GLD chart shows a moderately safer play for investors and traders.  The potential for a 20%+ upside price move over the next 60+ days is quite likely and our belief is that traders should be able to trade GLD throughout many of the upside and downside price rotations over the next few weeks and months.  Ultimately, if you are skilled enough to pick proper entries, a decent trader could focus on GLD and pick up 65% to 120% ROI over a 7 to 12 month span of time. – Our Last Gold Forecast From October 2018 Unfolding Perfectly – Pay attention to where the opportunities are for your level of skill and capital.  As we’ve been saying for many months, 2019 and 2020 will be fantastic years for active traders.  Stick with what you can execute and trade well because there will be dozens of trades available to most traders over the next 16+ months.
Overall, our research team believes that precious metals have just begun to move higher on a WAVE C impulse move.  We authored a research post suggesting that Gold and Silver were currently 20 to 30% undervalued back in late May 2019.  The current upside move in Gold and Silver may be just the beginning of a much bigger move. Ideally, we believe this initial impulse move will end above $1650.  From these current levels, that reflects a 25% to 30% upside move in GLD.  If any of the fear-inducing items, listed above, begin to take shape over the next 12+ months, we could certainly see Gold above $2100 before too long.  $3750 may seem like “shooting for the stars”, but all it takes is a combination of fear and deflation/inflation to drive investors into a gold-hoarding mode just like we saw after 2003-2004 – and that move prompted a 500% price rally from the $300 base level. That same move today would put the current price of Gold near $7800.  It might seem like it could never happen – but it could. Bottom line, we forecast the markets and share some extreme analysis like this to open your eyes to some potential opportunities. But, you cannot just jump into gold or miners after reading this and think you are set for success. The markets are never that simple. You must actively adjust and trade with the market and our daily video analysis is what will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. This week, we locked in some profits on our long gold ETF, and gold miners ETF, why? because our analysis says both of these are at resistance and could pullback before heading higher. We don’t buy, hope and hold, we enter positions, lock-in profits, rinse, and repeat over and over again. Get my daily video analysis and trade alerts today by subscribing to the Wealth Building Newsletter. Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Fear Drives Market Expectations

The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again.  We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months as the expected downside price move takes place.  We understand this concern by many industry professionals and share some of their same concerns, yet we believe these individual are far too early in shifting their stance in the markets right now. As you may be aware, our research does not show any major downside risks until later in July 2019 or August 2019.  Even then, the price of the Dow Jones Index would have to fall over 18% before the December 2018 lows become threatened.  The current upside price recovery, with the Dow Jones up over 400 pts from the lows on Monday, June 3, suggests the US market and the Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months is still rather strong with investor buying dips. We told our followers this bounce was about to happen the day before it bottomed here. It seems that everyone is trying to pick a top or call the big crash right now.  Back in November 2018, it seemed like every professional trader we knew was advising their client “This is the BIG ONE” and suggesting the US markets could never recover from a deep sell-off like the one we experienced in late 2018.  Yet, here we are, after reaching near all-time highs again, rotating a bit lower and the same voices seem to be stating “This is the BIG ONE” again. Allow us to help clear up what is likely to happen based on our research and proprietary modeling tools. This first chart of the VIX (Volatility Index) shows what we believe to be the most likely outcome over the next 30+ days.  After a spike in the VIX in early may which our followers profited over 25% in a few days, we believe a downward pricing channel will set up where the VIX will continue to drift lower – eventually settling back below 14 again for another setup.  It is very likely that this volatility consolidation coincides with a US stock market price recovery over the same span of time.  We’ll get into more detail in the following charts. Eventually, sometime in mid-July or mid-August, we expect the VIX to spike well above 20 to 22 as a broader US stock market price collapse takes place.
Throughout our expectations, we expect the US Dollar to enter a similar type of price pattern – setting up a Pennant formation after a moderately deep price correction nearing the $95 level.  We believe the US Dollar will continue to move lower, driving precious metals higher, where the $95 support level is the key target.  Once this level is reached, we believe the US Dollar will rotate higher and attempt a move above $97.50 again – possibly attempting new price highs.  These new highs are likely to happen in early to mid July 2019.
Our last chart highlights what we believe will happen in the Dow Jones Index (as a general market example of what will likely happen in the ES, NQ and YM).  As you can see, we believe the downside price swing that has currently taken price nearly -7.25% lower should be very close to completion.  We believe the $24,300 to $24,600 level will act as strong support for this move and prompt another upside price leg over the next 7 to 14 days.  We believe this upside price leg will push the DJI price level back towards the $26,000 level by late July or early August 2019.
We are suggesting that the early move into a protectionist stance by professional traders may be about to experience some extreme pressures.  Should the US/China trade issue or the Mexico trade issue lessen or be resolved over the next 60+ days, the US stock markets could rally towards new highs fairly quickly.  If things stay the same as they are now, we expect price to move exactly as we have highlighted on these charts. Near the end of July or sometime in August 2019, we expect a bigger top formation to setup where a moderate price collapse may take place.  Everything must setup perfectly for this to happen and we still have 40 to 60+ days of trading before this setup gets closer.  Lots of things can happen over this span of time, so pay attention to our continued research to stay ahead of these moves. One thing you can do to prepare for any future price volatility or rotation is to accumulate Gold and Silver positions near recent lows. If you like precious metals see my forecasting signals here  This increase in volatility means that precious metals should continue to push higher as fear becomes more rooted across the globe. We’ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.  We’ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.  Remember, we are not proposing these as “major price bottoms”. They are “upside pullback trades” (bounces) at this point.  A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND  TRADE WHAT MATTERS – PRICE ACTION!  CLICK HERE

Chris Vermeulen

When you contemplate negative interest rates, I would rather own Gold…

With global equities taking the plunge, bond market turmoil, talk of negative interest rates and a bullish COT Silver Report, the future for Gold and precious metals just keeps getting brighter.

Add to that the threat of Mexican tariffs and the push for a Gold-backed currency in Malaysia and you have the makings of an exciting Weekly Wrap Up.

Eric cheers on the Raptors, chimes in on Gold and answers some of your questions this week on the Sprott Money Weekly Wrap Up.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Gold Swing and Investing Trade Signals