We just issued this trade alert to members of The Technical Investor newsletter which allows members to protect their wealth and assets while continuing to take advantage of opportunities generated by the US and global markets. This is the first trade alert issued in 2020 of this kind.
If you are an active investor or traders, have a retirement account of any type or have assets in the stock market, then we urge you to take action and sign up to get this investment trade signal.
Our focus is to help traders and investors protect and grow their wealth. We use proprietary price modeling tools that can’t be found anywhere else. Our combined 55+ years investing and active trading experience provides you with incredible insight and opportunity.
Passive investing is something for the “other guys”. If you want to grow your wealth, protect your assets and learn to take advantage of the biggest price swings in the markets, then you need to follow our research and price modeling systems with us.
If you are concerned this may to be active for you, just know that we only buy the SP500 ETFs or move your money to cash where it is the most effective at times. If you can call your broker and tell them what to do with our alert instruction, or if you can place the trades yourself, then you can follow these investing signals.
Each year we have 2-3 trade opportunities to add new capital to the market, and some years we may have a new bull or bear market signal. Remember, bull market trades will last 5-12 years, bear market trades will last 1-3 years. No matter what, we can make money during both markets.
Since 2007, Passive Investing would have returned only 53.75% ROI – only 4.48% annually. Active investing using our proprietary price modeling systems and deploying our proprietary position allocation modeling tools returned over 135% ROI – a 11.49% annually over the same time period. That’s a whopping 230% more annual return than simply letting your investments ride out the market fluctuations.
Allow us to take a minute to explain just how powerful this advantage really is to you.
Imagine you started with a $100,000 account and compared the difference between a passive investment style and TheTechnicalInvestor.com trading style over a span of 10 to 15 years. Most investors contribute to their retirement accounts over a 25+ year span of time – possibly longer. The difference between the two styles of investing is dramatically different in terms of the final results:
At the 5 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $48,000 in extra profits (over +38% more growth for your assets).
At the 10 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $140,000 in extra profits (over +91% more growth for your assets).
At the 15 year mark, the difference between the two styles is almost $318,000 in extra profits (over +164% more growth for your assets).
After the 15 year example (assuming your passive investment style maintained a 4.48% annual ROI and our active investment style maintained a 11.49% annual ROI), the results are stunning.
With passive investing, you would have nearly DOUBLED your assets and wealth.
With TheTechnicalInvestor.com active investing, you would have more than TRIPLED your assets and wealth.
When you add our proprietary “re-entry” triggering system, the numbers explode to +40% annual ROI with 1x leverage; 3512% with 2x leverage; 9417% with 3x leverage.
The difference is that we help you navigate the bigger price swings/trends in the market and actively help you manage your allocation in the markets using our proprietary price and position sizing technology.
What’s the cost for TheTechnicalInvestor.com? $249 per year or $149 every 6 months. Annually that breaks down to about $21 a month, which is $1 per trading day to know you are on the right side of the market.
Isn’t it time you took advantage of proprietary technology and services and started to create even more opportunities to grow your assets? The market volatility recently has created an incredible opportunity for everyone that has a retirement/401k account. Now is the time to focus on these big price swings because this is when opportunities are created to grow your wealth 3 to 5 times faster.
Visitwww.TheTechnicalInvestor.com to learn more. Sign up today to learn what our newest trade alert action is all about and how you can start profiting from these huge price swings in the future. $21 a month is nothing when you really think about it. Join our other subscribers in learning to protect and grow your wealth with our technology today.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategiest
Found of Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/172.png532915adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-03-31 17:11:392020-03-31 17:11:39Important Trade and Investment Alert Was Issued
Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”. We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility.
As you’ll see from these charts, below, we are not dismissing this current upside rally and the potential that it could last for many weeks or months longer – we’re just warning our followers and clients that we believe a very volatile period or price rotation is setting up within the next 10 to 25+ days as prices reach the historical upper boundary.
Our researchers believe that price channels are a very common form of technical analysis. Price enters a channel when defined boundaries are established and when price continues to rotate within these boundaries. Historically, when a price channel is broken or breached, a new price channel is quickly established. You’ll see examples of this very clearly in the Custom US Stock Market Index and Custom Volatility charts below.
Within this research post, we want to highlight the rally levels across a number of our Custom Index charts because we believe the current US stock market rally is nearing a “peaking level/process” that may surprise many investors. Even though the current price trend may be quite stable to the upside, price tends to rotate in up and down price cycles throughout shorter and longer-term trends. We have termed this “true price exploration”. It is the basis of the Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci price theory. The price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows – at all times.
Put in more simple terms, the price will always rotate up and down within a trend – it will never go straight up or straight down. There must be some rotation in price as support and resistance levels are established while true price exploration is taking place. This process is the reason that we believe the global markets are setting up for a moderate price rotation/reversion in the near future.
This first chart, our Custom US Stock Market Index Weekly chart, highlights the recent upside price breakout that took place late in 2019. We believe this rally is the result of a continued Capital Shift into the US stock market by foreign investors as well as continued fundamental economic data as a result of President Trump’s tax and deregulation policies. The US/China trade deal, beginning to settle in November 2019, was also very good news for the markets overall. As technical investors, these massive global concerns or positive events play a big role in understanding how the price will bias as it digests these positive or negative events.
The one aspect of this Custom US Stock Market Index chart we want to focus everyone onto is the Price Channel that we’ve drawn across the peaks and troughs of price over the past 2+ years. The downside price rotation late in 2019 setup a defined price channel that we believe will act as critical price resistance in the very near future. Should this price rally continue for another 2+ weeks, the price will very likely reach this resistance level – then what?
The current upside price rally technically confirms that price has already established a “new price high” and if this resistance level is a strong as we believe, based on the historical price channel structure, it may prompt a moderately large price correction/reversion event. Once price rallies to near the upper price boundary, there is a very strong likelihood that price will experience hard resistance. A potential rotation in price could prompt a move below 880 – the middle price channel level.
Our Custom Valuation Index Weekly chart highlights the amount of capital pouring into the markets and the fact that global investors continue to believe the upside price rally in the US stock market is likely to continue. The past FLAG formation, from September 2019 till near November 2019, suggested that global investors were quite concerned about future valuation growth. It would appear that global investors began to become very cautious in September 2019 – then started pouring capital back into the markets in late November/early December 2019. It was likely foreign investors that began pouring capital into the US markets at that time.
Either way, the advance in the price of our Custom Valuation Index suggests that global investors believe the US stock market is, again, in rally mode into early 2020 and through Q4 2019 Earnings.
Now for the kicker. Our Custom Volatility Weekly chart is back into extreme overbought territory. This indicator can stay in this range as price advances for many weeks – like what happened in late 2018. Over the past 24+ months, every time the Volatility Index moved up into these extreme overbought levels, a moderate to severe price rotation/reversion took place. This is important to understand for all traders.
Price could attempt to stay up in this overbought level for many weeks or months – yet the risk of a price correction/reversion would only gain strength the longer the Volatility Index stays above 19. Be prepared for increased volatility over the next 60+ days and be prepared for a potential price reversion. Our researchers believe we are very close to critical price resistance and an explosion in volatility.
As skilled technical traders, this is exactly what we want to see happen. We want to be able to find and identify profitable price trends, prepare for price corrections and attempt to time our entries into various ETFs and sectors to be able to profit from these bigger swings. As the rally continues to push higher, pay attention to the earnings data that is release and expect volatility to begin to move higher. We believe a number of earning surprises are going to hit the markets. These could prompt some 2% or greater price swings in the US markets.
This is the year you really want to find the right team to help you identify and trade these bigger trends. Don’t let 2020 pass you by while these incredible setups continue to roll into bigger market trends. Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.
Join my Wealth Building Newsletter if you like what you read here and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.
NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research. It is provided for educational purposes only. Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed. Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/100.png496850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-01-21 10:25:252020-01-21 10:25:25Q4 Earnings Setup The Rally To The Peak
Everyone seems to be focused on Gold recently and seems to be ignoring the real upside potential in Silver. With all the global economic issues, military tensions, geopolitical issues, and other items continually pushed into the news cycles, it is easy to understand why traders and investors may be ignoring Silver.
Silver has really not started to move like the other precious metals. Gold is up over 45% since 2016. Palladium is up over 350% since 2016. Silver is up only 29% since 2016. The Gold to Silver ratio is currently at 86.7 – very near to the highest level on record going back over 25 years.
Historically, Silver rallies 6 to 12+ months after Gold begins a price rally. The big break in the Gold to Silver ratio comes at a time when Gold rallies by more than 30% to 60% faster than the price of Silver. In other words, when a major disparity sets up in the price of Gold compared to the price of Silver, then Silver explodes higher – which results in a drop in the Gold to Silver ratio.
Currently, the relative price of Gold to Silver is over 200%. Considering this fact and considering the under-performance of Silver recently, our researchers believe Silver is setting up a massive basing pattern in preparation for an explosive upside move.
Our research team put together this chart to help illustrate the real upside potential in Silver. This Monthly chart highlights the Gold to the Silver ratio (Darker BLUE), the price of Gold (Gold) and the price of Silver (light BLUE) over the past 20 years.
Every time Gold broke a sideways Flag formation and began to rally substantially higher, Silver followed Gold higher 5 to 12 months after with an incredible upside price rally. In 2005, Silver rallied over 100%. In 2009, Silver rallied almost 400%. Now, in 2020, could Silver rally 100%, 200%, 300% or more?
In the recent past, we’ve authored numerous articles about Gold, Silver and precious metals highlighting our expectations going forward. Our incredible research from October 8, 2018, floored many institutional traders and researchers because we were able to accurately predict the future price moves in Gold 9+ months into the future. Take a little time to read some of our earlier research posts
We believe the current setup in Gold and Silver is almost identical to previous setups where Gold rallied on economic or global concerns, prompting a massive disparity ratio between Gold and Silver. We believe Silver is setting up in a massive basing pattern that may be an incredible opportunity for skilled traders.
In Part II of this research post, we’ll highlight why we believe all skilled traders and investors should be paying very close attention to the metals markets, Miners and, in particular, Silver.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997 I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles, I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/51.png586850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2020-01-13 09:01:052020-01-13 09:01:05My Big Trend Analysis For Silver Investor – Part 1
One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure. This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction. These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.
The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend. We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately. The explosive middle-trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen. Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.
These trade setups we call the “100% measured moves” are naturally occurring price rotations that skilled traders can use to identify strong trade potential setups. They are more common in rotating markets where a moderate trend bias is in place (for example in the current YM or ES chart).
First, let’s take a look at this YM Weekly Chart to highlight the most recent 100% Measured Move. The original upside price move between June 2019 and July 2019 resulted in a 2787 point price rally that replicated between August 2019 and November 2019 – after a brief price retracement. Currently, price is rotating near the peak of this 100% measured price move near 27,875 while attempting to set up a new price trend.
In this ES Weekly example chart, we see a 100% Measured Move that originated in June 2019 and ended in July 2019 – just like on the YM chart. Although the completion of the 100% measured move didn’t originate until the low that formed before price rallied to take out the previous high near 3029.50. Remember, the other facets of Fibonacci price theory are also still at play in the markets while these 100% Measured Moves are taking place. Thus, rotation between a previous price peak and valley (without establishing any new price highs or new price low) are considered “price rotation” – not trending. The 100% Measured Move that did take place recently did complete a full 100% advancement and is now stalling near the 3040 level peak.
SP500 INDEX TREND IDENTIFICATION AND TRADE SIGNAL SYSTEM
CYCLE AND PRICE PREDICTION SYSTEM
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Once these 100% measured moves complete, price usually attempts to stall or wash out a bit before attempting to establish a new price trend. At this point, given the examples we’ve illustrated, we believe the US market will enter a period of rotation and moderate volatility as these 100% measured moves have completed the upside price advance for now. Some level of price rotation after these 100% measured moves have completed will potentially allow for another attempt at a future 100% price advance after setting up a new price leg.
These techniques don’t always work, we recently got stopped out on a TVIX (vix/volatility trade for a loss) but we just close out our thirst natural gas trade for a quick 7% profit. The previous UGAZ trade netted 20%, and the one before that was 7.95%.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, PLUS get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/31.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-11-28 11:16:172019-11-28 11:16:17100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top
Chris Vermuelen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins Cory Fleck to look at the charts for oil, gold and the US markets. While all are trending in very different directions the US markets are closing in on a very important level that if broken could be very bad for risk on investors. Also of note that oil has given back all the gains since the Saudi oilfields bombing.
Note – This interview was recorded Wednesday Oct 2nd late in the day.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be sure to ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar and SPECIAL OFFER TODAY ONLY – CLICK HERE
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. This quick and simple to understand guide on trading with technical analysis will allow you to follow the markets closely and trade with it. Never be caught on the wrong side of the market again and suffer big losses. PDF guide: Technical Trading Mastery
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/10.png917780adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-10-03 17:05:472019-10-03 17:05:47Oil, Precious Metals, And US Market, All With Very Different Trends
Our research team has been nailing some really great trades recently in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, ETFs, and many other market segments. Some of these trades have resulted in fantastic gains of +10% to +20% for our members.
One trade in particular that we called back in July was the Energy trade in Crude Oil and ERY. Specifically, we suggested that Crude Oil would fall based on our ADL predictive modeling system and that ERY would set up a very nice trade with targets set relatively close to the basing/bottom pattern. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast signals newsletter
You can read our original research here:
July 10, 2019:PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWERJuly 26, 2019: ENERGY SETS UP TWO NEW TRADES – HERE THEY ARE
While the original setup resulted in a fantastic trade setup and completion – where both targets hit and the price extended more than $10 beyond our Target 2, we are now alerting you that ERY will likely set up another, even bigger, opportunity over the next 30+ days.
We believe our previous research, particularly related to Crude Oil, will result in ERY rotating lower over the next 20+ days, possibly towards the $50 level, before setting up another momentum base and beginning an upside move targeting the $70 to $75. If our research is correct, this move will come at a time when global markets are expecting must slower economic activity and/or a massive supply glut in Oil.
Daily ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)
This Daily ERY Chart shows the original trade setup that occurred after our July 26 post and includes the original target levels drawn as YELLOW ARROWS on the chart. It is easy to see the success of this trade and how ERY rotated higher as Crude Oil weakened.
Weekly ERY Chart (Inverse Energy Sector ETF)
This Weekly ERY chart highlights what we believe will be the next trade setup which will start to complete the momentum base sometime near the end of September or into early October. We expect the rally in ERY to begin in mid-October and carry on into November, based on our ADL predictive modeling system (see the original article listed above).
We believe the downside rotation in ERY that we are expecting will coincide with a moderate upside move in Crude Oil over the next 30+ days before a bigger breakdown in Oil prices creates this incredible opportunity in ERY. Skilled technical traders just need to wait for the momentum base to complete. I just posted this gold and silver trading setup unfolding here.
If you follow our ADL predictive modeling system’s research, you’ll see that it expects Crude Oil to break down to levels below $40 before or near the end of 2019. That move could come quicker than we expect is global markets accelerate the economic slowdown we’ve seen recently. We’ll keep you informed of this, and other, great trades as they setup.
Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/11.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-30 16:16:252019-08-30 16:16:25Energy Sector Setting Up For Another Big Trade
Last week was a great week for trading as we locked in profits on a trade and raised our stops to protect the rest of our open positions.
take a look at how my trading system identifies trends, trades, and targets in the chart below.
If you want to become profitable technical traders join my educational trading newsletter and trade alerts complete with entry, targets and stop pricing.
Today we closed two winning trades at the open, and entered a NEW trade this morning markets are getting very tradable again. So ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.
Soon I will be adding this trading system chart in the member’s area where it updates through the day for you to follow alone and trade with me. I should mention that the newsletter pricing will be going up soon. If you subscribe before the price increase you are grandfathered in at the old/lower rate.
EDIT: September, 26, 2019. New Terms and Conditions are in effect. Grandfathered rates may no longer apply. Please read the Terms and Conditions available on the sign-up page of www.thetechnicaltraders.com.
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In fact, there are several super cycles starting to take place as we head into 2020 and beyond which Brad Matheny and layout in our new book: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
If you wanna become a technical trader with use and trade ETFs then be sure to join our Wealth Building Newsletter today and get our daily video analysis and swing trade alerts. In the past 17 months, our newsletter trade signals have generated 91% ROI for its subscribers, be sure to join before the markets start making new big moves and profit with us!
Chris Vermeulen www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
2018 and thus far in 2019 has been good but great is just around the corner!
The tech guys and I have been testing, debugging our new Trading Application to bring online so we can all benefit from more timely analysis/trades with instant email and sms alerts every time a new trade, target or stop is reached. This has been a process to get it to this stage but it looks like its ready to come online next week for phase one which is the live portfolio and instant alerts.
Phase II will be our SP500 index trend color-coded charts with momentum, swing, and trend trade signals, and many more phases to follow as we build out the best active traders tools to follow and trade the market with ease. I’m building exactly what I want and need for more steady monthly income and I know you will love it!
SP500 Trend Analysis Complete with:
Momentum 1-3 Day Trades
Swing Trades 3-20 Day Trades
Trend Position
Recent SP500 Oversold Momentum 2 Day Trade
Sneak Peak at Live Portfolio/Chart/Alert Dashboard
This auto-updating portfolio page allows provides all the trading information you need on each position we take. You can click to see a chart of each stock or ETF we own, and this also automatically sends you instant SMS and email alerts when a new trade, target or stop has been reached. This dashboard is the foundation and Phase One of many new great trading indicators and trades over the next several months.
If you wanna join now before we raise rates and get grandfathered in be sure to join now because once we go live with this added value we will be raising our subscription prices.
EDIT: September, 26, 2019. New Terms and Conditions are in effect. Grandfathered rates may no longer apply. Please read the Terms and Conditions available on the sign-up page of www.thetechnicaltraders.com.
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The incredible strength of the US Dollar over the past 12+ months has put downward pricing pressure on Gold and Silver. I believe this downward pricing pressure could be muting any upside price advanced in Gold and Silver by as much as 20% to 30% or more.
The US Dollar has turned into the global “safe-haven” for international investors and foreign governments. Over the past 6 to 12 months, or more, the US Dollar has been the only fiat currency to see any strength and upward trend. All the other major global currency levels have fallen – some dramatically lower.
The EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, and CHF have all fallen sharply over the past 6 to 12 months as the strength of the US Dollar and US Economy continued to surprise many. We’ve been calling this a “capital shift” that started back in 2015~2016 – when the 2016 US Election cycle began and China began to implement capital controls. At the same time, foreign nations such as Brazil and Venezuela began to shift into an economic abyss while the UK dealt with BREXIT negotiations. All of these external factors created an environment where the US Dollar became a global safe-haven for global investors – all of which were seeking US equities and US Dollars to hedge weakening foreign currencies and weak foreign stock market performance.
I think that the US Dollar strength, in combination with the continued foreign Gold acquisitions has amounted to a resolved “reversion” in Gold prices that could reflect a 10% to 20% price anomaly. In other words, the strength of the US Dollar has muted the advancing price of Gold by our estimates of 2x to 2.5x the strength of the US Dollar. Over the past 12 months, the US Dollar rallied from 89.42 (April 2018) to 97.92 (May 2019: current price). This reflects a 9.60% increase in the value of the US Dollar.
If my research is correct, the price of Gold should have rallied by about 18% to 26% from the April 2018 levels IF the US Dollar had not appreciated in value as it has. Therefore, the true price of Gold should be somewhere near $1600 (18% above April 2018 levels) to $1700 (26% above April 2018 levels) if we attempted to eliminate the “reversion effect” of the US Dollar strength.
We come to this conclusion by statistically analyzing the US Dollar strength after April 2018 and how Gold reacted to this strength – by falling over 12.5% from near $1350 to a level near $1170. That range of time reflected an 8% price advance in the US Dollar. Thus, a ratio of 1.5 to 1 has clearly been established within that move. More recently, from August 2018 till now, the US Dollar has rallied 1.47% while the price of Gold has rallied 8.87%. The current price of Gold is -5.60% below the April 2018 price level.
If we were to assume that the rally in the US Dollar deflated the price appreciation of Gold by nearly equal ratios, then we take the April 2018 price of Gold ($1350) and add the related price variances of Gold over this span (essentially reverting the price of Gold to April 2018 US Dollar levels : $1350 * 1.27) and we end up with $1714.50. This reflects a greater than 30% price anomaly from the current price of Gold.
We need to ask ourselves one simple question, what would it take for Precious Metals and the global stock markets to revert back to these expected price levels? Would it be a move away from the US Dollar? Would it be some shift in foreign currency valuations? Would it be a combination of factors that drive greater fear into the markets and reflect a US Dollar valuation decline? In the second part of this article, I will explore some possibilities and explain why I believe we are just days or weeks away from finding out exactly what will cause this price anomaly to revert along with my proprietary gold price cycle forecast.
I just highlighted the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to other foreign currencies and suggested this US Dollar strength may have created a “price anomaly” setup in Precious Metals – specifically Gold. I believe a very unique setup is happening in the global markets right now and that the price of Gold is substantially undervalued compared to risks that are present throughout the global economies. I believe the strength of the US Dollar has muted the upside potential of Gold by at least 20% to 30% over the past 12+ months and I believe a shift is taking place where Gold is starting to break these pricing constraints.
If the analysis is correct, I believe traders only have about 3~6+ weeks before we’ll find out why and what will cause this price anomaly to revert back to what I believe is “price normalcy”. The strength of the US Dollar, as well as the continued global “capital shift” where foreign investors are piling into the US stock market and US Dollar related investments, have continued to put incredible pricing pressures on Precious Metals. We believe this “shift” may be about to revert back to some levels of normalcy in term of Precious Metals pricing.
I believe a major Pennant/Flag formation is setting up in Gold where this price anomaly event will be resolved. This type of price anomaly reset, or reversion will prompt a massive upside price advance in Gold and Silver that will attempt to restore proper pricing levels to the Precious Metals commodities. I believe we are just weeks away from the completion of this Pennant/Flag apex/breakout event and believe the upside price targets identified align with a series of key events that are likely to unfold over the Summer months of 2019. Take a few minutes to read the recent three-part research post regarding these events and how they relate to the global stock/commodity markets here.
Our predictive modeling systems have been warning that a price advance in Gold and Silver will take place between April/May of 2019 and Aug/Sept or 2019. We are calling this the “initial upside price leg” because we believe this upside price move will be just the beginning of a much larger move higher for Precious Metals. We’ve highlighted some of the biggest concerns we currently have related to the global stock market price appreciation levels and the concerns related to the US Presidential Election cycle in precious articles – Please read them here :
We believe it is imperative to alert all investors/traders of this event and to attempt to allow all investors/traders to plan for what may become one of the biggest global stock market swings in recent history as well as one of the biggest moves in Precious Metals in history.
My proprietary cycle analysis and trade signals are suggesting a mild price recovery in Gold will prompt moderate upside pricing pressure over the next 10~20+ days. This aligns perfectly with our Pennant/Flag formation, see the previous chart. It would be expected that Gold prices would form a moderate price support level near $1270 before moving back up to the upper Pennant price channel, near $1295. Then, price should set up the “Apex Breakout” move – which will likely be a “washout-low” price rotation (somewhere near or below $1270) with a very quick reversal to the upside – breaking $1330 and rallying much higher. This type of rotation is very common and often prompts traders to jump into short positions on the “washout-low” formation before getting clobbered on the reversal/rally. Be prepared.
Lastly, we want to alert everyone to a chart we’ve been following that could become a determining factor for the future of the global stock market levels, the US Dollar and Precious Metals. The one thing we don’t want to see is a massive decline in yield in the 2 Year Treasuries. This would indicate failed growth expectations throughout the globe and, in particular, reflect concerns that the US markets could contract/decline in-line with further global market devaluations.
We’ve already been trying to warn investors that the US Presidential Election cycle will likely create a stalling price pattern in the US stock market. We’ve been warning, for the past 18 months, that Gold is setting up a massive bottom/breakout formation. We’ve recently highlighted the global concerns (Europe, China, US, and others) that may combine to create something like a “perfect storm” for currencies and the global equities markets. If that translates into “yield weakness” in the US Treasuries, think about how that would translate into the Precious Metals “reversion” that we are suggesting is only a few weeks away?
Chart courtesy of www.crescat.net
We strongly urge investors to pay very close attention to our research and prepare for this event. Yes, the Capital Shift event is still taking place and as long as nothing disrupts this shift, capital will continue to flow into the US Dollar and US Equities. Our concern is that the charts are telling us we are very near to the end of this event cycle and we are alerting all of our followers so they can prepare for this move. It may start out mildly – it may not. We do know that our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that July/August 2019 are on our radar for a major price rotation/event.
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY
First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.
So what does this mean? It means we should start to see money flow into the safe-haven assets like the Utility sector, bonds, and most importantly precious metals. I anticipated this and our XLU utilities ETF taken with members has already hit our first profit target, and our VIX ETF trade also hit out 15% profit target and we the balance of it is still up 25% as of yesterday.
Second, my birthday was this month, and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.
For May I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:
1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)
2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)
I only have 25 silver rounds I’m giving away
so upgrade or join now before its too late!
