Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.
Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets. These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate. Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.
The one aspect that many traders don’t grasp just yet is that the US market could continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months, while precious metals continue to push higher, just as they’ve done over the past few months. The reality is the fear and greed driving the upside price move in metals is related to foreign market concerns (China/Asia, Europe/EU/BREXIT, Arab/Iran/Israel, and others). The true fear is that some type of war or economic event will start while the global markets are fragile. The recent news that the overnight Repo Market is seizing is another indication that the global credit market is very fragile. What will it take to launch metals higher? We believe the world is waiting for this next event to happen while this momentum base continues to set up.
GOLD DAILY CHART
This Gold Daily chart highlights the momentum base setup between $1480 and $1525. Any entry below $1500 is a relatively solid entry point for skilled technical traders. The next upside target based on our Fibonacci price modeling tool is $1795. Thus, the real upside move potential at this point is another +20% for Gold.
SILVER DAILY CHART
Silver is setting up a similar momentum base pattern after reaching levels just below $20 per ounce. We still believe the early October breakout date is relevant and we believe the next upside target will be between $21 to $24 in Silver. Any entry level below $17.60 is a solid area for skilled technical traders preparing for the next upside price leg.
There has been a lot of talk from analysts and researchers that Gold could rally well past $5,000 if the markets collapse. One analysis came out recently and suggest Gold could rally above $23,000. We are a bit more conservative with our initial upside target of $3,750.
The bottom line is you really don’t want to miss this opportunity in the precious metals markets once it forms a bottom and starts to rally. This recent price rotation is a gift for skilled technical traders. If you were to take a minute and really consider how precious metals would react to a foreign market credit collapse on top of the potential for a collapsing economic outlook resulting from the credit collapse, you’ll quickly understand that trillions of dollars will be seeking safety and security in the metals markets in due time.
My Wealth Building ETF Newsletter will hold your hand, and tell you what trades to take as these events unfold including the entry price, price targets, and most importantly stop prices. If you like what I offer ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/30-2.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-20 15:06:342019-09-20 15:06:34Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Bottom
We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil. The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now. Might it be the Fed Meeting?
You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place? This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors). This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.
That super-cycle pattern initiated in 2013-2015 and concludes in 2019/2020. This is one of the reasons why we believed the August 19 date was so important. It aligned with our price cycle analysis and our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs. We believed this was the date that we would learn the future of the markets and possibly start a bigger price breakdown.
It now appears that the foreign and US credit markets are starting to “freak out” and we may find out that the US Federal Reserve is rushing in to rescue the global markets (again) from their own creation. The Repo Markets appear to be setting up a massive crisis event as rates skyrocket overnight. See the article below from ZeroHedge.
Source : Zerohedge.com : “Nobody Knows What’s Going On”: Repo Market Freezes As Overnight Rate Hits All Time High Of 10%
Many analysts have discussed the US Dollar shortage in foreign markets that relates to global credit functions, sustainable trade functions and much more. If the US Dollar shortage is reaching a critical point where foreign markets are unable to function properly and where Repo Rates are reflecting this crisis, we may be on the verge of a much bigger credit crisis event that we have imagined.
In our opinion, the scope and scale of this event depends on the September 17/18 US Fed meeting outcome and the tone of their message afterward. If the Fed softens and injects capital into the global markets, we may see a bit of a reprieve – even though we may still see concerns weighing on the global markets. If the Fed allows the card to fall where the may, so to say, we may see a bigger crisis event unfolding over the next 2 to 4 weeks – possibly much longer.
We believe this event is related to the Capital Shift that we have been discussing with you for more than 2+ years. Capital always seeks out the safest and most secure returns in times of crisis. Capital will also seek out opportunity at times – only when opportunity is relatively safe compared to risk. This may be a time when opportunity is limited and the potential for risks/crisis are very elevated. At those times, capital rushes away from risk and into safety in Cash, Metals and the safest instruments in the global markets – we believe that would likely be the US, Canadian, Japanese, British and Swiss markets/banking systems.
DOW (YM) DAILY CHART
This YM Daily chart highlights recent price ranges and shows us what a 1.5x and 2.5x volatility explosion could look like (see the Yellow and Blue highlighted ranges on the right end of the chart). We believe the event that is setting up, with the US Fed meeting/announcements pending, could prompt a large volatility event over the next few days/weeks/months that may target these expanded volatility ranges.
MIDCAP INDEX DAILY CHART
This MC, MidCap, Daily chart highlights the same range expansions (1.5x and 2.5x) related to the recent price ranges in the MidCap Index. Traders must take a moment to understand how an extremely volatile pricing event within these ranges could create dramatic profit or loss risks. Imagine what would happen is the MC was suddenly targeting 1775 or 1620 on some type of crisis event – a 20% to 30% price decline.
DAILY TRANSPORTATION INDEX CHART
This Daily TRAN, Transportation Index, chart provides a similar picture of the type of volatility event that we believe could be setting up currently. From current levels, the Transportation Index could rotate within a +/- 15~25% price range if a new credit crisis event were to roil the markets.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
What can you do about it and how can you protect your investments from this event? Learn to protect your assets by taking advantage of current high prices, pulling some profits, protect long trades, scale back your active trading and learn to size your trades appropriately. If you have not already done so, strongly consider a position in precious metals (Gold or Silver) and move a larger portion of your portfolio into CASH.
The risks of another global credit crisis event appear to be starting to show very clear signs right now. This event will likely be focused on foreign markets – not necessarily focused on the US markets. We’ve been warning our followers about this type of event for many months now and we are alerting you to the fact that the Repo Markets appear to be screaming a very clear warning that foreign credit many be entering a crisis mode.
I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/20.png456850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-18 16:53:122019-09-18 16:53:12IS THE OTHER SHOE ABOUT TO DROP WITH FED NEWS?
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
VIX INDEX FIBONACCI UPSIDE TARGETS CHART
Our VIX chart highlights what we expect in terms of the potential upside price volatility in the US stock market. You can see we expected the VIX price to decline after the peak in early August 2019, then bottom near August 20~21 and attempt a move higher (related to our August 19 breakdown expectations). This breakdown never happened as news events pushed the general markets higher – abating the spike in the VIX we were expecting. Our further expectations were that VIX would cycle lower near the end of August 2019 and into very early September 2019 before setting up a bottom near 24 and extending higher. Obviously, our expected levels were off by quite a bit, but the rotation in the VIX continues to align with our rotational cycles.
Therefore, we believe the potential for an upside price move in the VIX is still very valid, especially given the events of last weekend and the continued trade talks, market fragility and potential for major news events. We believe the VIX may be starting an upward price cycle that could push it well past 21~24 should the US stock markets rotate lower or contract.
SP500 INDEX WEEKLY ADAPTIVE DYNAMIC LEARNING (ADL) CHART
Our ES Weekly Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) chart highlights why we believe an extended volatility range exists over the next 60+ days and why we believe a rotation of 8 to 12% is a real possibility in the US stock market/major indexes. Our ADL predictive modeling system is very useful because it highlights where price may attempt to target out into the future based on a proprietary price mapping/data mining solution. The purpose of this tool is to map historical price activity by unique price pattern, technical data and categories, learn from the past and attempt to use this data to predict the future. We’ve found it to be extremely valuable in our research.
This ES Weekly ADL chart suggests an 8 to 12% price range is set up in the US stock markets over the next 60+ days. This suggests that and price weakness or external news event could send the US stock market much lower before finding any real support. Any absence of this breakdown event or crisis-type news event would suggest that prices will attempt to drift moderately higher over the next 60+ days.
In other words, there is a very real potential for a potentially big downside price rotation currently set up in the markets. That potential vanishes in early November 2019 as the ADL predictive modeling system suggests a more narrow target range for the price with an upside price bias driving markets to potentially new all-time highs.
CONCLUDING THOUGHT:
Get ready for some really great trading opportunities over the next 4+ months. Any downside price rotation will present a very clear buying opportunity for skilled technical traders and members of our ETF Wealth Building Newsletteras we lead into the November/December market rally (Christmas Rally). This means we must continue to be cautious of extended volatility and play these price rotations with a strong focus on managing risk before the November/December rally sets up to close out 2019.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/11.png516850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-17 13:15:422019-09-17 13:15:42VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means
The Energy Sector ETF has been on fire recently with big price trends. We called a bottom/buy trigger in ERY in early July that resulted in a nearly +20% rally. Then, on August 29th, we called for ERY to rotate lower, targeting the $46 to $47 level – setting up another price momentum base before another attempt to move higher. You can read that research post here :
With Crude Oil pushing higher over the past few weeks and targeting levels just below the $59 price area, we believe the timing of this move in ERY is almost perfect. ERY rotated lower reaching the $44 price level on September 10. We believe this low price level will likely become the price bottom (or near a price bottom) for ERY and that a new upside price trend will set up over the next few days/weeks as a momentum base. It is very likely that an initial upside price move targeting $57 or $57 will conclude the first upside price leg (+20%). After that, the further upside target is another 18.5% higher near $65.25.
If you’ve been following our Crude Oil and Energy Sector research, you’ll already know the ERY trade setups have been very good in terms of price rotation, risk, and opportunity. We believe the momentum base setup will likely take 4 to 6+ days to complete – giving skilled traders a great opportunity to identify entry locations. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
Ultimately, the next upside price move should settle just below $57 on the initial move higher, then rotate downward a bit, then move higher towards the $65 price level. Traders should consider any deeper price rotation below $46 as a solid entry price level for this next move. Crude Oil is already nearing price resistance and the energy sector may be poised for another big move higher.
A note of caution in regards to the ERY 3x ETF. Because this is a 3X ETF, skilled technical traders should be cautious in regards to risk factors. 3X ETFs can be fantastic for profits, but horrible for losses. If you are not prepared for volatility or don’t time your entry well, price rotation could result in some intermediate losses that may be tough to stomach. 3X ETFs are something that most novice traders should stay away from unless they fully understand the risks of these investments and how to properly size their trade positions.
Still, we believe the energy sector is setting up another great trade opportunity for skilled technical traders. Watch how this sets up below $46 and watch for deeper price moves below $45. Once the momentum base is set up, the upside price move should be very clean and fairly quick.
I have had a series of great trades this month. In fact, over the past 20 months, my ETF trading newsletter portfolio has generated over 100% return when compounded for members. And we locking in 5.1% profits on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 index, and also XLU for a quick 1.43% profit as well. So, if you believe in technical analysis, then this is the newsletter and market condition for you to really shine.
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be prepared for these price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.
Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/60.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-12 14:35:132019-09-12 14:35:13Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move
The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy. The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed. Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90. Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter
So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation. Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.
We believe the recent rallies in Gold and Silver related to this US Dollar strength are something every trader should consider relative to the real perspective of the global markets. Gold and Silver have become extremely expensive in certain foreign markets because of currency price levels and the stronger US Dollar typically mutes price rallies in precious metals. Therefore, the combination of a strong US Dollar and a rising metals price suggests “this time is different”.
We are starting to see news posts of how unique this setup really is in relation to traditional market dynamics.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-breaks-away-emerging-market-103653513.htmlhttps://www.msn.com/en-in/money/personalfinance/why-is-gold-suddenly-so-expensive/ar-AAGqZKE?li=AAggbRNhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-28/gold-gains-set-off-silver-scramble-as-investors-play-catch-uphttps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/gold-crosses-record-rs-40000-mark-as-recession-fears-seep-in/articleshow/70892512.cms
The reality is that no matter what happens in the US Dollar or other foreign currencies, Gold and Silver are in very high demand as investors continue to pour assets into precious metals – which have quickly become one of the best-performing assets for 2019 and very likely for 2020 and beyond.
This Daily US Dollar Index chart highlights the strength of the US Dollar over the past 6+ months. The ability of the US Dollar to continue to trade above 96~97 and push higher towards the 99 ~ 100 level shows the very high demand for US Dollars throughout the globe and the strength of the US Dollar in comparison to much weaker foreign currencies. With the expectation of a weakening global economy, trade issues, negative interest rates, and bankrupt nations watching their futures spiral completely out of control, investors are naturally seeking out the strongest, safest assets – and are not seeking the highest potential returns. This is a shift to safety.
We believe that gold is about to launch into a new upside leg once it breaches our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc resistance level near 1550. The new upside target is $1625 or higher – where $1700+ could be the real upside objective for Gold. If the US dollar rotated a bit lower after setting the new highs near 99, Gold could explode to the upside on moderate US Dollar weakness.
This Weekly chart of the Gold to Silver ratio highlights what we believe will be the next upside price leg for Gold over the next 6+ months. We believe the true upside for Gold is 25 to 30% from current levels. That puts our upside target near $2000 to $2100 near the end of 2019. If that is the case, and silver continues to rally faster than Gold, then Silver could easily rally 30 to 50% from current levels.
If gold does what we believe is possible over the next 6+ months, then Silver will likely target the $26 price level fairly quickly, then push even higher and attempt to reach levels above $31 to $40 before the end of 2019. We believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue and the rally in metals will continue as the shifting environment of the global markets continues to drive investors into safety.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This could be the “once in a lifetime” trade fore those of you that followed our research. We’ve been warning about this move for many years and have clearly illustrated the breakout opportunities in both Gold and Silver related to the US Dollar and foreign currencies over the past 12+ months.
You still have time to get into both the Gold and Silver trade if you believe our analysis is correct. This move will likely continue for many months into the future – well into and past the 2020 US presidential election event. The markets wait for no man or woman. This shift in the global markets is different than 2008-09. The reason it is different should be clearly evident in the strength of the US Dollar and the early shift in the precious metals markets that didn’t happen in 2008-09. Something is spooking global investors into metals and we believe we know what it is – the mature credit cycle rooted in foreign market credit/debt exposure/liability.
It is our opinion that the falling foreign currencies and lower economic expectations are related to the fact that global foreign markets took advantage of the cheap US Dollar between 2010 and 2014, borrowed like fools and leveraged their economies to the max while never expecting the economic shift to happen quite like this. Now, with credit and debt piled up in the expensive US Dollar, weak economic and trade data and outlooks and further concern originating from the “grey/shadow banking sector” – we believe the dance has already begun and investors know the tune. Run into safety – run into Gold/Silver and the US Dollar.
We believe our super-cycle research and other proprietary modeling systems are suggesting that price weakness will dominate the markets for the next few months. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis and recession.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/63.png547850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-09-04 14:05:572019-09-04 14:05:57Rising US Dollar Mutes Metals Moves and Puts Pressures on Global Markets
Nearly a month ago, we authored our “Crazy Ivan” research post suggesting that precious metals were about to pull a massive “crazy price move” while the US and Global markets breakdown in an attempt to revalue risk, support, resistance, and other unknown factors trying to “revalue” price to more suitable levels given future expectations.
The moves in Gold and Silver over the past 4+ weeks has been incredible. The biggest surprise is in silver, even though we called this move as well. The way precious metals prices transition through periods of risk or fear is that Gold increases in value as fear drives investors into Gold. Whereas, Silver, the lesser shiny metal, which has seen prices further depressed over the past 5+ years, attempts to revert to a less depressed “fair value” to Gold. This process happens every time Gold begins to move substantially higher and results in an incredible opportunity for Silver traders. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market forecast newsletter
What is the Crazy Ivan event? It is our belief that Gold and Silver will attempt to rally well beyond levels most analysts have been predicting for this year. In fact, we believe Gold could be trading above $1750+ before the end of 2019 because of this Crazy Ivan event that we believe is unfolding right now. This event is based on our belief that a massive shift in the capital will take place as soon as the US major indexes break below key support. Once this support is broken, we believe the Crazy Ivan event will really begin to take form.
August 9, 2019: PART II – METALS AND VIX ARE ABOUT TO PULL A “CRAZY IVAN”August 8, 2019:PART I – METALS AND VIX ARE ABOUT TO PULL A “CRAZY IVAN”
Gold Weekly Price Chart
Our research team believes Gold will have one last period where the price will pause before attempting to rally much further. In fact, we believe Gold will potentially retrace to levels near or below $1500 one last time before the real Crazy Ivan event is unleashed. This means we should be patient and wait for the next setup in Gold and Silver before jumping into any new trades.
Gold should pause near $1600, roll a bit lower towards the $1500 level near the end of September 2019, then begin setting up another “momentum base” to launch into the next rally. Skilled technical traders should be very aware of this setup and not try to chase short term trades at this point. Wait for the rotation to setup and wait for the momentum base before entering your next Gold trades.
Silver Weekly Price Chart
Silver will likely Follow Gold in this manner and rotate by a smaller amount – likely only $0.60 to $0.75 from a peak near $18.75. Therefore, any opportunity to buy Silver below or near $18 is still a valid entry point before the next big move higher.
We, honestly, hope you were following our research last year and earlier this year where we continued to urge our followers and members to load up on physical metals while they could (before this big move started). Even right now, you can still take advantage of the relatively low price levels before the next big move higher.
Check out these exciting charts full of opportunities that we will be sharing.
RAY DALIO SAYS BUY GOLD AND ERIC SPROTT IS A MEGA HOLDER OF METALS ESPECIALLY SILVER!
A recent article by Ray Dalio, he stated gold is the asset in which we should all be accumulating as it will be a top performer globally when things start to fall apart. On May 31st Eric Sprott talked about my gold forecast in detail. Since then I have accumulated more gold and silver from Eric Sprott’s company https://www.SprottMoney.com/and you should too.
Eric Sprott Gold & Silver
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
This is the start of the Crazy Ivan price move we warned you about nearly a month ago. We need to wait for one last minor price rotation in both Gold and Silver before the bigger Crazy Ivan price event hits. We are only 7 to 14 days away from the start of that event. Wait for Gold to rotate as we suggest and set up the Momentum Base near the middle of September – then get ready for the next leg of the Crazy Ivan even to hit. Ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where commodities and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.
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Chris Vermeulen – www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/0.png470850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-30 12:43:462019-08-30 12:43:46Precious Metals About To Pull A Crazy Ivan
Our August 19 breakdown prediction from months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers. We’ve been getting emails and messages from hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction. Well, here is the last update before the August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our research to heart.
First, we believe the August 19 breakdown date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+ months. So, please understand that our predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders. It means that we believe this date, based on our cycle research, will become a critical inflection point in price that may lead to bigger price swings, more volatility and some type of market breakdown event. Thus, if you have already prepared for this event – perfect. If this is the first time you are reading about our August 19 breakdown prediction, then we suggest you take a bit of time to review the following research posts.
August 12, 2019:AUGUST 19 (CRAZY IVAN) EVENT ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAYAugust 7, 2019: OUR CUSTOM INDEX CHARTS SUGGEST THE MARKETS ARE IN FOR A WILD RIDEJuly 30, 2019:AUGUST 19 PRICE PEAK PREDICTION IS CONFIRMED BY OUR ADL PREDICTIVE SYSTEMJuly 13, 2019:MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS
Originally, our research team identified July 2019 as a market top potential back in April/May 2019. Later, our research team updated our analysis to include the August 19 breakdown date prediction based on our advanced predictive modeling tools and cycle analysis tools. This became a critical event in the minds of our research team because it aligned with much of our other predictive research and aligned perfectly with what we were seeing in the charts as we neared the Summer.
The top prediction for July 2019 by our research team became true as we entered early August. This confirmation of our research and prediction back in April/May helped to solidify our belief that our August 19th breakdown prediction would likely become valid as well. Whenever we make a prediction many months in advance, one has to understand that we are using our predictive analysis tools to suggest what price “wants” to try to do in the future. External events can alter the price level by many factors to create what we call a “price anomaly”. When the external events and price predictive outcomes align as they have been doing over the past 4+ months, it lends quite a bit of credibility to our earlier predictive research.
In other words, we couldn’t be happier that our research team has been able to deliver incredible insight and analysis regarding the global markets and how the price will react over the past 4+ months. This is something no other investment research firm on the planet is capable of doing with any degree of accuracy right now. In fact, it is amazing to us that we’ll read some research post by a multi-national investment firm that may suggest something now that we’ve alerted our followers to 90 days earlier.
Now, onto some new details about the August 19th breakdown event…
First, be very cautious about investing in Cryptos throughout this event. The initial move, if our research continues to play out, maybe an upside rally in BitCoin based on fear as the global markets start a breakdown process. But we believe this move in Cryptos will be very short-lived as our current research suggests central banks, governments, and other institutions are getting ready to pounce on unregulated Crypto Currencies. It is our belief that the breakdown event will possibly push Bitcoin higher on a “move to safety” rotation. But once Bitcoin investors understand that governments and institutions are targeting these digital currency exchanges as criminal enterprises that threaten central banks and that there is no real safety in putting capital into a digital enterprise that can be shut down in minutes, we believe a rush to the exits will begin to take place.
We believe the shift to real physical assets will take place as a shift in asset valuations continues to take place. We believe the downside risk in Bitcoin is currently at least 30 to 40% from current values. Our initial downside target is a level near $5570 for Bitcoin with potential for price support near $7900.
Daily Bitcoin Chart
This Daily Bitcoin chart highlights arrows that we drew in mid-July based on our expectations for future price rotation. You can see that price, for the most part, followed our expectations and stayed within the Fibonacci price channel, near the lower price levels, while navigating the MAGENTA Fibonacci price amplitude arc (across the tops in price) as it moved towards our August 19th breakdown date. It is critical to understand that price will attempt to either establish new price highs or new price lows based on Fibonacci price theory. It is our belief that an upside rally towards the $11,300 level will be the “last rally” before a breakdown price trend pushes Bitcoin much lower. This is likely the reaction of the “flight to safety” that we suggested earlier.
Weekly Bitcoin Chart
This Weekly Bitcoin chart provides a broader picture of the same event and how it will likely play out in the near future. Remember, initially, global investors will attempt to pike into anything that is quick, easy and efficient to protect against perceived capital risks. We are certain that some investors will attempt to pile into Cryptos as the breakdown event starts. The question is, will this transition of capital stay safe long enough for investors to capitalize on the move? We don’t believe so based on our research.
If the price of Cryptos breaks through that Magenta Fibonacci price amplitude arc and initiates a move to new higher highs, then we’ll have to rethink our analysis. But for right now, we are sticking to our belief that Cryptos will see an impulse rally that will quickly be followed by a breakdown event (likely the result of some government intervention or broader risk event).
Weekly S&P 500 Chart
This Weekly S&P 500 chart highlights what we believe is the most likely immediate price trend related to the October 2018 price decline. If a downside price move does initiate as we expect because of the August 19 breakdown inflection point, we believe the S&P will target immediate support above $2400. If you’ve followed any of our research, you already understand we believe the move dynamic economies on the planet are uniquely situated to actually benefit from this downside price event. Therefore, we must understand that a “price exploration event”, like this, is a mechanism for investors to seek out true value levels for global assets. All major price corrections are, in essence, a process of seeking out price levels where investors believe “true value” exists.
NASDAQ Weekly Transportation Index
The NASDAQ Transportation Index paints a very clear picture for our research team. In fact, we find the TRAN particularly useful in our research of the global and US markets. Even though we follow dozens of symbols and instruments, one of our key objectives is to attempt to validate our analysis across multiple instruments/charts and to attempt to identify faults in our expected outcomes.
The recent downside price move in the TRAN aligns perfectly with our August 19 breakdown expectation. It is very likely that some news or pricing event over the next 7+ days pushes the TRAN below the RED price channel and downward towards the middle Standard Deviation level near $3900. Once the TRAN breaks the RED support level, you should expect the US and global markets to also begin a broader move lower.
Ideally, the $3500 level should operate as a moderately hard price floor for this downside move. $3900 would be considered the initial target of the downside price move whereas $3500 would be considered the initial “hard floor” support level. Given these expectations, we have to consider the potential for a -15% to -25% initial downside price move in TRAN which would translate into a -18% to -35% downside price move in the S&P or NASDAQ.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
In closing, August 19th is tomorrow (Monday). This is where we’ll find out if our prediction will be viewed in the future as accurate or not. The one thing about making public predictions for many months in advance is that you can’t go back and try to lie to your followers/readers. Either it works out as we suggested or it does not. We believe in the skills of our research team and predictive modeling systems. We’ve seen how accurate they have been in the past and we believe we’ve delivered top-tier analysis to all of our followers and readers. In fact, we know you can’t find anything like this type of research from other investment or research firms.
Over the next 10 to 30+ days, we’ll be able to look back at our August 19th prediction and say “we were right” or “we were wrong” – that is part of trading, folks. You use your best tools to make an educated assessment of current and future expectations, then act on it (if you want). We’ll follow up on the other side of August 19th with all of you.
Stay fluid as this event plays out, and most importantly, know that we don’t blindly trade on predictions, we use our short-term technical analysis and current market trends to enter and exit trades. The reality is, no matter if the markets roll over and crash or rocket higher, we will follow and trade with the market. The best thing about being technical traders is we don’t care which way the markets go. We just analyze and trade with the current market trend and make money in both directions and at the drop of a hat!
If you want to trade and invest without the stress of a pending market collapse or missing out on another extended rally to new highs then join my Wealth Building Newsletter today and copy my proven technical trading setups and trade with me!
Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/82.png548850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-19 11:08:092019-08-19 11:08:09August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready?
Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019. Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019. In May/June, we altered this date to align more closely with our super-cycle research and determined the August 19, 2019 date.
It is our belief that this date will initiate a breakdown price move that may align with external news related or economic related data. Our research continues to point to the potential for a large global breakdown in equity prices related to some type of near-crisis event. It could be related to something within the US or outside the US – but either way, we slice it, August 19 looks to be the date we need to focus on.
– Crazy Ivan Market Prediction for Stock Market and Volatility Article
–Crazy Ivan Precious Metals Prediction Article
FANG Custom Index Weekly Chart
This FANG custom index weekly chart highlights how our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs work in alignment with price rotation and trends. The theory behind this analysis is that price trends operate at a frequency and amplitude that we can map out – much like Tesla’s theory of Mechanical Resonance.
In our studies, we have learned how to identify relative price amplitude and frequency factors, then align these to price peaks and valleys. The result is that we can see where hidden support and resistance channels form and where the price will potentially reach an “inflection point”.
Right now, this week and next on this FANG chart are likely to see increased volatility and the potential for a price breakdown as the current RED arc level sets up a massive resistance channel.
Custom Smart Cash Index Chart
Our custom Smart Cash Index chart is also highlighting an overall weakness in the US and global markets. Once this chart breaks the lower price channel level, there is a very strong possibility that this index will break down toward the $134 level (or lower) as the global markets attempt to identify price support. Overall lows could target the $111 level (seeing in 2016) if the breakdown is excessive.
Custom Volatility Index
This Custom Volatility Index is suggesting a deeper price low is setting up if the August 19 breakdown date acts as we suspect. If the global markets break lower, then this Custom Volatility Index will be pushed into an extreme low territory (below 5.5) were a very deep bottom/base will setup (as we have seen before). If it reaches levels below 4.0, then we should be very close to a very deep “V” type bottom.
The recovery from this base/bottom will likely be somewhat extended as the shift in the capital around the globe seeks out the best, safest locations and returns. We believe this bottom will complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020 where the US markets will quickly gain acceptance as the location for global assets to avoid extended risks.
What Does All This Mean?
August 19 is only a few days away and we could see fireworks start in the global financial market place.
If our analysis is correct, we have only 4 to 7+ days before a major breakdown in price starts and we are yet unsure of the source or intensity of this event if there is one. Multiple analysis types are pointing to August as a key turn date and the market could fall by as much as 16-25% if there is a trigger event to spark the crisis.
What should you do? Well, being a pilot, quasi engineer, and technical trader using logic, rules, and processes to do things. I always wait for the price to confirm a new trend before taking action and entering a position. This is how we profited last week from the SP500 index falling. We traded the 2x bear fund SDS and locked in a quick profit.
The days are long gone where I would buy or sell stocks or trends based on tips and forecasts. That type of trading is really called legal gambling and the odds generally are not in your favor unless you tips are coming from insiders who actually know something.
Using technical analysis and proven strategies we can follow the market trends and profit from them no matter which the market moves. We bet with the market (the house) and provide entry, target, and stops for all trades we initiate.
https://thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/32.png561850adminhttp://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/tgaoglogo.pngadmin2019-08-13 10:49:382019-08-13 10:49:38August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Event Only A Few Days Away
