Last night Thursday Night I sent follower an email with the Spike Trade Setup and Profit Potential Table you see below. Today (Friday) the market moves sharply in our favor yet again for a quick $900 profit by 10am this morning.

How? you could have bought one ES mini futures contract, minimum required trading account size $5000, Bam… $900 morning or 18% ROI.

You could have traded with the ETF’s listed in the table also, but in order to do that, you will need a brokerage account that allows you to buy and sell ETFs during pre and post market hours like I do. If you cannot do this, then I highly recommend you use the broker I use because they ROCK!

Best execution fills, trade anything from one account (stocks, ETFs, Options, Futures, Forex) and super low commissions.

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Friday’s Morning Trade Setup & Profit Taking!
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APRIL 11th – Quick $400 Profit From Todays Spike Trade:

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Start Trading With Me Today – Learn, Profit, and Prosper!

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Chris Vermeulen

The article and charts display why silver is a neglected asset.  Since the beginning of the year, gold has returned handsome gains for its investors. However, during this same period of time, the returns from silver have been lackluster, as indicated and why you need to know why…

READ FULL ARTICLE: CLICK HERE

I have to trade and invest in the markets that I have before me and not the ones that I desire!  Therefore, I must be able to approach the market place from a completely ‘unbiased’ perspective. I do not care if the markets doubles in price, or if it is cut in half.  I take advantage of moves in both directions by using my ‘short term spikes’ which I have shown you, over the past couple of weeks, in order to lock in profits in as short a period as 48 hours.

I implement my longer term cycle analysis to take advantage of moves in both directions which last several weeks or months.

Today, there are two ‘psychological’ situations that lead to big events within the markets. They represent ‘mirror images’ of one another.

The first issue is ‘overconfidence’.  Whether this is ‘overconfidence’ in a market, a strategy of oneself, ‘overconfidence’ leads to carrying the largest position at the most inopportune time.

The second issue is ‘indecision’.  There are times, when a market approaches critical levels and yet the trading population appears ‘uninterested’ or even ‘frightened’ to respond.  In either case, ‘indecision’ leads to fewer participants, while ‘overconfidence’ leads to too many.

Currently, my focus is the examination of a ‘very bullish’ net commercial trader position in the face of the lowest commercial participation rate since the economic collapse of 2008/2009.

I may frequently reference the ‘net commercial trader’ position and ‘commercial trader momentum’, in my analysis.  The total position is really only meaningful at its’ ‘extremes’.  The most important factor to keep in mind, while reviewing the following charts, is the mathematical relationship between the ‘total and net positions’.

The ‘net commercial trader position’ is measured by subtracting the reported short positions from the reported long positions, of the given traders.  Long contracts minus short contracts equal the ‘net position’.

This measure of sentiment is generated by the ‘consensuses of the commercial trader population.

This ‘net position’ predicts the degree of bullish or bearish sentiment.  The total position measures the overall level of interest in a market, at any given point in time.  This is one of those times when total interest must be used in conjunction with the net position in order to avoid trading while under a false set of assumptions.  Therefore, while the current sentiment is positive, most of the ‘collective smart money’ is sitting on the sidelines, ‘uninterested’.

Fear is the primary reason for ‘smart money’ to be sitting on the ‘sidelines’ as the Dow Jones and SPX futures near their all- time highs.  Commercial traders would most typically be the sellers of this rally.

Their ‘indecision’ is again noted by their exceptionally low participation rate, as the current global economic environment continues to waiver back and forth, from one economic announcement to the next, as I refer to as ‘news driven events’.

U.S. growth versus global stagnation appears to be the order of the day as the FED attempts to commence withdrawing a decades’ worth of stimulus.  ‘Commercial traders’ are typically the most well-informed group of market participants and usually leads the markets’ next move.  Their uncertainty is, significant, at this point in time.

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The SPX futures represent an interesting situation!  The ‘commercial trader’ participation rate is at the lowest point that it been since 2008, yet the ‘net commercial position’ is close to a multi-year high.  This means that the ‘commercial traders’ currently in the market are exceptionally bullish, despite it being only a few of them.

The question to ask today is… ‘Are they still right?’  My opinion is that they may be right, for a while.  My expectation is that we will see the broad stock market continue to rally into ‘nominal new highs’ over the next week still.

However, I also believe that this ‘nominal new high’ could coincide with the ‘peak’. This will present itself with weaker underpinnings and momentum divergence, or new ‘net commercial selling pressure’, informing us of the first confirmation of a ‘top’.

The Nasdaq 100 futures’ recent new high was not confirmed by the ‘commercial trader’.  In fact, they are completely disinterested.

The Nasdaq 100 futures chart is beginning to display what a top may look like.  ‘Commercial buyers’ of the September decline were rewarded with new highs, less than a month later.  They were quick to rush into this years’ decline and their current ‘net position’ nearly matches the total from the last run-up.

However, note the large decline in the total commercial position since the October 2015 highs.  Their participation rate is the lowest since 2008.

Hence, the ‘commercial participation rate’ has been trending lower since March of 2014, at which time the Nasdaq made its high around 3680.  This is just below the August 2015 and February 2016 lows, in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq appears to be the leader of the group and has begun most of the recent moves.

Therefore, my outlook is that the Nasdaq may not breach its’ recent high around of 4725. It will be very interesting to see if the ‘commercial traders’ will confirm this rally by returning to the market place.  Until, and if they do, sentiment should remain ‘bearish’.

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The Dow Jones futures recent rally is showing all the classic signals of a rally out of breath via divergences in price and momentum between price and commercial trader action, while guarded under the umbrella of declining volume and open interest.

I have illustrated a similar pattern to the Nasdaq on the Dow Jones’ futures chart.  As you can see, ‘commercial traders’ set a ‘bullish net position’ record on the late summer decline of 2015.  Much deeper analysis reveals that the new ‘net long record’ came on the heels of the smallest total commercial position in years.  While it still created a fantastic trading opportunity, that I was able to capture on a short-term basis.  I believe the broader pattern is ‘indicative’ of a ‘bearishly divergent’ top based on ‘commercial trader behavior’ patterns and activity.

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The table below should provide a perspective on the commercial traders ‘lack of interest’ during this economic and geopolitical climate.

‘Fear’ is the primary cause for the declining commercial participation rate.  The ‘commercial traders’ are among the most well-informed group amongst market participants.  Their unwillingness to participate, at these prices, reveals two main key factors;

  1. The current prices are distorted enough so as not to draw them into the market, on either side.
  1. The current banking and political environment is far too ambiguous for them to place any long-term bets before the U.S. Presidential elections take place.

 

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

There are many moving parts and influences that create major market trends and one of the most powerful forces is that of the Commercial Positions. When large financial institutions and funds are buying so should we.

The US stock market is at a critical juncture. Times like these are tough to gauge, time and trade but as long as we understand this we can tread lightly until we have confirmation of a new major trend.

The writing is on the wall and has been for over a year. Stock market tops are process and take a long time to mature before breaking down and starting a new bear market. I feel we are in the final days of the large cap topping stage and will see substantially lower prices this time next year.

Get My Simple ETF Swing Trades: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Everyone is going nuts over the spike trade setups I keep sharing, why? because they work almost every time and the money I’m seeing some of my followers making is crazy exciting to watch and experience with them.

Below is a spike alert I shared yesterday for the SPY (ES mini, or anything related to broad market).

About an hour ago this target was hit ! Another winner!

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I have something really exciting to share with you soon that will change the way we trade each week…

Stay Tuned!

Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Alert Newsletter

Currently, we are experiencing the SPX topping formation. Again, it is dangerously overextended.  The SPX staged a strong rally due to the repeated actions of Central Bankers, during the month of February 2016.

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Presently. we are truly living, investing and trading in ‘unprecedented’ times.  Another push higher is not out of the question, at this time, into ‘nominal’ new highs as we experienced this past Friday, April 1st, 2016 and then within a week or two it should start cycling back down.

There are strong ‘headwinds’ straight ahead for any attempted rallies that may take place.  There is ‘bearish’ divergence within several momentum oscillators.  This is signaling major warning signs!  There are no bullish or favorable long setups in the marketplace environment.  I would look towards ‘unexpected’ choppy price movements across the board.

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Investor sentiment has reading levels associated with ‘peaks’ in the equity market advances. Courtesy of ivewmakets.com

It is dangerous when the markets have nothing of substance sustaining them, other than their dependence on the FED’s announcements regarding its’ monetary support.   It is extremely dangerous when the FED tailors its’ remarks so as to support financial asset levels.  This is not the mandate of the FED, however, we are all waiting with anticipation, to hear their future announcement!

When Dr. Janet Yellen can make a couple of phone calls and implement an equities rally into new highs in 2016, of the equity markets, as of last Friday, April 1st, 2016, then we become the ‘fools’ who believe and buy into it!

Interventions by Central Banks, cannot change the long term trend from ‘bearish’ to ‘bullish’ I don’t think anymore.  They are merely delaying the inevitable and just creating a ‘slow roasting bear market’ (as I have previously mentioned for several months is starting to unfold in the US large cap stocks).  While these actions of the Central Bankers are now behind us, we are currently entering the earning season, which is most likely to disappoint Wall Street analysts.

The U.S. is currently experiencing the worst financial and economic recovery during the history of the countries’ worst financial crisis’ and ‘recession’, since the Great Depression. Most people don’t realize what is happening and thus don’t see or feel much of this recession, but it’s there building momentum in the background and it will be a rude awakening for most once the breaking point is reached.

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Concluding Thoughts:

In short, the US stock market is at the topping point. Odd favor a major market downturn that will last before the next bounce, and then continue yet again even lower.

This will be a big surprise to most but my followers and I have been watching this unfold for months and are stocking the market to time the next BIG SHORT to make our killing.

Learn with my FREE ETF Newsletter Alerts

Chris Vermeulen

British citizens will vote to decide if the United Kingdom should continue to remain in the European Union, or leave it, in a referendum which is to be held on June 23rd, 2016. The European Union is a political and economic partnership between 28 countries.

What is the global economic impact of ‘Brexit’?

FIND OUT NOW: CLICK HERE

Learning to generate profits with trading systems is important, but it is what you add to your net worth that will make a lasting difference in your lifestyle and future. It is difficult to explain the difference that having a substantial net worth can make in your attitude. When you feel truly wealthy, the things and the experiences that your money can buy are secondary to the prosperity of the mindset that you develop. T. Ecker is fond of saying “The rich really are different and that it is their mindset, not just their bank accounts”.

READ FULL ARTICLE: CLICK HERE

Over the weekend I shared two Spike Trade setups with ETFs: SPY and GDX.

Today April 4th we have seen them both get filled.

The SPY spike filled about 80% of the way and the rule we follow with these trade setups is that if 80% of a spike target is reached we aggressively take profits and manage the position. I will be creating a mini course/trading guide on how I trade the Price Spike trades so those of you who trade them or want to learn how to trade them can with incredible accuracy. Having a firm grasp of what to expect with each trade and how to manage each position is critical if you want to make a lot of money with these.

Having a firm grasp of what to expect with each trade and how to manage positions is critical if you want to make a lot of money with these.  You must know the basics like knowing the intraday times of day to be looking to locking in profits or tightening stops.

Like today for example with SPY: Target was about 80% filled today right at 11am ET. Members of my newsletter know (if they watched my short educational video on this in the members area) that 11am is the reversal time of the day. If markets are falling we should expect a bounce. Knowing this allows us to lock in gains on SPY right at the 80% fill level moments before the market bounce.

All SIMPLE STUFF but you if you don’t know these things trading will be a struggle for as long as you trade I can assure you that.

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IMPORTANT NOTE: Price spike trades are not the types of trades are extremely valuable and an added bonus for subscribers of my newsletter. But the OFFICIAL REAL trades are swing trades and long term investing signals for paid subscribers. Most swing trades can be entered 1-3 days after a trade alert at the same or better price than that of the alert, this is not fast paced trading.

JOIN MY TRADING EDUCATION AND ETF TRADE ALERTS SERVICE TODAY!
CLICK HERE

Once the majority of Americans have made up their mind and voted it will be almost impossible to change the direction of the outcome and change their minds. Unfortunately, the majority has voted and are in agreement with the next major event that will catch most people off guard. While this may sound bad and negative, I feel it is an opportunity of a lifetime.

You may be thinking I’m talking about who will be the next president but that is not it. Although the same theory applies to that as well.

Hear me out because this is equally important in terms of your financial future. This video is a great example of how you can benefit from this next major event unfolding – Bear Market in US Stocks, continue reading to fully understand my reasoning.

How do you read these data points?
Everyone reads data very differently than each other and I think that is one of the reasons why I can navigate the market so well. I look at data and try to figure out who are the individual generating the data within the information presented. For example in this article, I want to show you how I perceive Google trends and what it’s telling us.

Typically traders look at mass market sentiment leaning in one direction to be a contrarian indicator. Meaning if everyone is bearish on the market then we are likely to see a new bull market start sooner than later. While I do agree with this theory/strategy you must take into account what type of data you are using in order to come to that conclusion.

To me, there is a big difference between the average investor being bearish on the market which we typically see right at the end of a bear market when trillions have been lost because of falling stock prices. But, compared to those who are searching the keyword phrase in Google “bear market” at any given time I look at it as a leading indicator.

You see, I think people searching on Google for specific topics specifically ”bear market” are not the average Joe investor who does nothing but ride the emotional and account value roller coaster as markets fluctuate and don’t even know what a bear market is or even think to search it.

Instead, I feel those searching Google are the educated and active investors and trader who are the ones who create market trends and significant turning points in the market. These are people being proactive learning and adjusting their portfolios to avoid losing money and/or to profit generously during market downturns just as I do.

 

Stocks Are In A Bull Market When Google Tend Looks Like This:

The graph below shows different shades of blue. The lighter blue colors mean fewer searches for the term “bear market”. This is when the educated traders are bullish on the market and continually buying more shares, thus supporting the market trend. The dark shaded states are where specific regions of people are more bearish than the rest of the states. When the chart looks like this (light blue) we expect higher prices in the stock market.
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Stocks ENTERING A NEW BEAR MARKET If Google Tend Looks Like This:

Take a look at the two charts and graphs below. Both of these look very similar to each other. The one on the left shows us what the educated investor was thinking and doing with their money just before the bear market of 2008 and the final washout low in 2009.

Now, if you look at today’s Google trend which is the image of the US on the right-hand side you will see both look very similar to each other. To add more depth to this analysis if we were to compare the market breadth and internals for the US stock market they are also very similar in nature. Both of these types of analysis combined paint a clear bearish picture for stocks looking forward 6 to 12 months from now.

Just look how much darker blue both of these charts are compared to that during a bull market when investors are putting new money into stocks, which is the first graph explained above.

Now let’s look at the bottom of this image where you see the interest over time line chart for the number of searches on “bear market ”in the USA. From what this data is telling us, we are days or weeks away from a significant market top in stocks and the start of something that will wipe-out most individuals life savings once again… This will be my third time experiencing this type of event as a trader – 2001 tech crash, 2008 financial crisis, and now the 2016 economic crash.

 google-trends2

 

 

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I feel the US stock market specifically the large-cap stocks are going to provide a huge opportunity for investors who understand what is happening and how to take advantage of it.

Google has provided us with some excellent information to help identify and time major market turning points for long-term investors and short-term active traders like you and me.

In 2008, we had a very similar situation set up in the market and I was able to generate life-changing returns from these moves, I should note there are two major plays here, not just one.

These incredible trade setups are a once in a decade opportunity and more money can be made during some of the roughest times in the stock market and economy if you know which simple trades to place and when to buy and sell.

Learn more at my ETF Trading Newsletter Website

Chris Vermeulen

On Friday, April 2nd right after the stock market closed the charts flashed us another set of trade signals – SPIKE ALERTS

If you have been following my analysis the past month or two then you are well aware of just how accurate and profitable these simple Spike Trades can be within 12 – 48 hours.

Last week the market gave us 4 spike targets with three of them being winners in less than 36 hours. Also, we took advantage of gold shorting it just after the FED induced rally. We pocketed a quick 5.6% gain in just two days with that play also.

Anyways, below are the two spike trade setup for Monday showing where price is likely to move. This type of trade setup is perfect for day traders and momentum trader looking to squeeze a little more out of the market each week. I am working to automate these spike signals and potentially an automated trading system to execute them for us also.

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If you want to know where the market is headed each day and week, well in advance then be sure to join my Pre-Market Video Forecasting service which is: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen