Archive for month: June, 2012
Gold and silver have taken more of a back seat over the past 12 months because of their lack of performance after topping out in 2011. Since then prices have been trading sideways/lower with declining volume. The price action is actually very bullish from a technical standpoint. My chart analysis and forward looking forecasts show $3,000ish for gold and $90ish for silver in the next 18-24 months.
Now don’t get too excited yet as there is another point of view to ponder…
My non-technical outlook is more of a contrarian thought and worth thinking about as it may unfold and catch many gold bugs and investors off guard costing them a good chunk of their life savings. While I could write a detailed report with my thinking, analysis and possible outcomes I decided to keep it simple and to the point for you.
Bullish Case: Euro-land starts to crumble, stocks fall sharply sending money into gold and silver which are trading at these major support levels which in the past triggered multi month rallies.
Bearish Case: Greece, Spain and Italy worth through their issues over the next few months while metals bounce around or drift higher because of uncertainty. But once things have been sorted out and financial stability (of some sort) has been created and the END OF THE FINANCIAL COLLAPSE has been avoided money will no longer want to be in precious metals but rather move into risk-on.
Take a look at the gold and silver charts below for an idea of what may happen and where support levels are if we do see money start to rotate out of metals in the next 3-6 months.
Over the next few months things will slowly start to unfold and shed some light on what the next big move is likely going to happen to gold and silver.
The price movements we have seen for both gold and silver indicate were are just warming up for something really big to happen. It could be a massive parabolic rally to ridiculous new highs in 2012/2013 or it could be a huge unwinding of the safe havens as countries sort out their issues and the big money starts moving out of metals and into currencies and stocks.
Only time will tell and that is why I analyze the market multiple times per week to stay on top of both long term and short term trends. So if you want to keep up with current trends and trades for gold, silver, oil, bonds and the stocks market checkout TGAOG at: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/free-preview.php
Looks like today will be an exciting with stocks and commodities jumping in price up 1-3% as the US dollar pulled back in overnight trading. The SP500 is setting up for another short play which is showed in the video.
Yesterday our protective stop was triggered on the SP500 which was set at the previous day’s high. We locked in quick 7% on that position in only 5 trading sessions. You should be in cash at the moment.
Pre-Market Analysis Points:
– Dollar index has pulled back and is now at support. Looks as though it may bounce or rally any day now which means more selling in stocks and commodities.
– Oil is trading at major support on the weekly chart but overall the intraday price and volume action remains bearish at this time.
– Natural gas has bounced the past three sessions and is not trading at resistance. Lower prices are to be expected though Nat Gas is more of a wild card.
– Gold, Gold miners and Silver are moving higher by 1-3% this morning but volume is not behind the move and higher highs and lows have not yet been formed.
– Bonds have pulled back the past few sessions and could bounce or consolidate for a few more days yet. Price is floating in no-man’s land so it’s more of a wild card at this time.
– SP500 just continued to move higher in overnight trading up over 1%. This is going to put stocks in an overbought market condition at the open. Sellers may step in today or tomorrow and force prices back down for a 1-2% drop as talked about in the morning video.
I wanted to publish today’s video cause there is a lot going on. It’s going to be WILD so hold on to your hat!
Economic news was terrible and everyone is talking about a recession the past two days and with today’s data its clear we are in one or darn close. I’m sure there is some regulation that Obama made that says no one can use the word “Recession”. They will think of a new word for this.
If you are still short the SP500 like I am it would be wise to take a partial profits this morning or exit your position to lock in the gains. The market typically moves in certain percentage waves and we have just reach an extreme level where bounce may take place. We have made the easy money on this one and will be more than happy to reload at higher prices. We are up over 6% in 3 days.
Morning Market Analysis Points:
– Economic News was all TERRIBLE
– Money is moving into gold and gold miners
– Silver is trading slightly higher but gold is key safe haven.
– The dollar is higher but not at much as one may think. The data today was on the USA so it’s not that bullish for the dollar but money is still coming out of equities and going into the dollar.
– Bonds are up over 1.5% rocketing higher and almost reaching our measured move goal.
– Oil is down 3.3%, Nat Gas is down 2.8% both starting to get close to major support.
– SP500 was down over 2% but is starting to bounce and now down 1.8%